Execution is everything at this level. Really bad half for KU and -3 is going to be very tough to dig out of when Duke makes shots
jaybate 1.0
10346 posts
KU got schooled by a team that couldn’t hit squat. Second half could be brutal when Duke starts hitting.
Ku is completely confused
Every new look makes Ku miss a possesion
Now Duke shows 3-2 zone
Ku will get smeared second half if the players don’t start taking advantage of what Self has schemed. Duke is executing what K has schemed. Ku isnt
We are better but they have the better scheme first half
Coach K understands our temperament so well
We have to play inside and no one likes to if it’s not Doke dunking
Self showing wrinkles late first half. Self wAnts a lead
Our guys are open inside all the time and our wings aren’t feeding them
Yes
What’s not to like about malik
Self with a great wrinkle an out side scissor
Ku pooped and confused but only -2
Malik doing great d on allen
Coach K brilliant in denying doke
Ku cracking
U should be
Can’t prepare for it
Second game of 2 game series is why you switch D.
Trey has kept us close. Self is holding fast on saving wrinkles.
Self has to get him to dish backside
Duke denying Doke his dunk move
Devonte completely unsettled
Duke shifting between 1-3-1 and 2-1-2
Self just put in a back screen
Ref correctinglast call
Now Duke is back to original zone
Coach K is adjusting now. Self is waiting
Duke just adjusted its zone inside
Or silvio
Ku has to go to Doke
Oh they’re going to play
Ku will be fouled up shortly if Self doesn’t show zone
Allen went for DGs Head because of his concussion
That was how to beat the zone
Time for KU to show zone
@DCHawker
Yes, throws out to quick to collapse zone, but it’s a tricky zone
Big air ball
Solution shoot over it
KU looks better but can’t figure out thezone
I understand your respect for both of those coaches. They are good coaches on a par with Bob Huggins, though Wright has a ways to go to match Bob’s longevity.
But no one seriously thinks Huggins is better than Bill Self, and should also not think Bellein and Wright are either.
Am I recalling correctly? Self has beaten both Bellein and Wright and been beaten by both.
Even if he hasn’t beaten both, his overall record and his record at KU really exceeds theirs IMHO.
Where might this perception they are better than Self come from?
IMO Jay’s reputation depends largely on his ONE ring, which Self had LONG before he did. And Jay’s ring at least appeared more of a default entertainment value biasing the year the favorite EST teams crapped out, than attributable to Jay’s coaching IMHO. Maybe it wasn’t, but regardless it made me wish KU could have had a seeding path and whistles comparable to Nova’s.
Self by contrast won his 08 ring against a team with reputed ringers lead by a future NBA #1 draft choice (a reputed ringer) who became an all pro PG prior to injury. And Self’s team had to overcome a raft of FTAs awarded Memphis down the stretch to boot!! Big edge to Self IMHO.
Jay’s 17 year winning rate at Nova is .711 and was much worse before the Big East was gutted. All but 1 of his 30 won seasons came AFTER the Big East became little more than a mid major conference arguably not much better than the MVC. Wichita State has seemed as good or better the last several seasons, but did not appear to get as much seeding and whistle love as Nova and Jay, and so did not win a ring.
Overall, Jay is .676.
Overall Jay is no where near Self’s .766 overall and .824 at KU attained in a power conference. Also Jay has not won 14 consecutive conference titles. Without the apparently suspect ring, Jay would not even be mentioned in the same breath with Self IMHO.
Bellien’s claim to fame is two final fours, neither of which he won. Self has been to two also and he won one. Bellein has never won a ring. It doesn’t mean he isn’t as good as Self, but it has to go into the weighing scale. Bellein is a good, but not great, coach and has proven it at WVU and now UM, where he has gone .634 and .635 respectively. He just has never come close to Self’s level of winning and consistency, nor string of conference titles. He has only had 2 30 win seasons in 11 years at UM. Self has had 9 30 win seasons in 15 years at KU and has lost 10 games only 1season. Bellein has lost more than 10 games 7 of his 11 seasons at UM. And lately he has benefitted from Ryan leaving UW, Indiana imploding, and Izzo no longer being able to play unlimited bang ball, nor being able to recruit as much talent as he used to.
Finally Self is .714 in tournaments in 63 tournament games. Bellein is .676 in only 34. Wright is .617 in only 34. Sizable edge to Self.
In summary, I don’t see Williams or Bellein as being close to as good as Self. I think the only reason aliases find them compare is that each has beaten Self once in the Carney when Self was thought to have the better team. Now, right there one should cock one’s eyebrows and ask, “Why did they beat Self’s supposedly superior teams in the Carney even once each, when Self’s regular season and post season numbers are so vastly superior?
Rock Chalk!
BShark said:
@jaybate-1.0 There might be some bucking but I think Grimes play much more 2/3 than actual pg.
I hope you are right; that would give Self more flexibility.
I will try, but these two coaches are soooo wily they will probably fool me easily! 😀
They thing brilliantly in real time. It often takes me days or weeks to catch on.
Agreed. It’s not hard to get the scholies. It’s hard to make the kind of big team Self likes ( 3-2 with 4 big rotation at the 4 and 5 ) with 4 bigs that all want to start. He can beat them into submissions (and will) but it won’t be a happy family.
If Self could go 2-3 with Dedrick at the 3, then the bigs would resolve easily. But then there would be a log jam at 1 and 2. He has 3 point guards becoming eligible (including two 5-stars) plus Lagerald and Marcus apparently returning, and maybe Malik. Cunliffe likely will transfer, or red shirt. I don’t see 5 starters sharing 2 backcourt spots.
He might encourage Malik and Doke to leave just to solve the numbers problem even though neither one seems ready to be drafted very high. Doke would have gone high, but the knee injury will make him iffy.
👍
Stats is one of the easiest forms of math, once you get the hang of it, because its always grounded by reality, where as pure math is about formal elegance and ultimately aesthetics.
Don't worry.
Just study hard. Keep up with it daily and you'll be with a team in no time.
Let's get this out of the way first: will KU keep shooting 40% from trey?
Will Duke shoot 40% from trey?
Who will shoot better from trey?
Its mostly about the trey now. If KU is shooting 40%, or more, KU wins. If KU is shooting less, then it defaults to how the other team is shooting. If the other team shoots better, KU loses. If the other team shoots the same, or less, the "find a way" boys in crimson and blue can be counted on to hang a W.
KU is now 30-7 with a winning percentage of 81%. Not bad for a team that lost Preston, and started the season with almost no inside game and no depth at 1 or 5.
Dook plays a lot of zone. Inference: Dook has slow feet and Coach K has decided that zone defense can stretch enough to force opposing trey shooters to 25 feet and that beyond that distance it doesn't matter how you guard the trey. Its not clear Self shares that POV, but he may be leaning that way. Look for KU to do a lot of driving, whenever Dook shows man, and look for KU to do a lot of squirting off rebounds to try to get zone-free looks in transition. Once in half court, KU will play it the same way they have all season against zones. Everyone stretched and Vick darting in and out of the high post to receive passes to collapse the zone and kick out.
Dook plays a lot of zone (Part II): Look for KU to counter with its morphing 2-1-2 zone, which Self has been holding in reserve now for quite some time. Self will likely start M2M, but will show some Morphing 2-1-2 the first half to see if he can go to it second half.
What will be the second half adjustment? God only knows with these two monster talents of coaching, but short of 3pt percentages, and injuries, it will probably be the most important factor deciding the game.
Will Doke be effective with his tweaked knee injury, or is this going to be about Mitch and Silvio? Judging from Dokes exit from the last game, this looks like a Mitch and Silvio kind of game.
Who is the key to the Duke team? Marvin Bagley. He averages 21ppg. Allen, Trent and Carter are equivalent contributors at between 15.6 and 13.5 ppg. Bagley is the real problem facing KU. He makes 61 FG% and even shoots 38.6% from trey. His only weakness is his 62.7% FT shooting.
Who will guard Bagley and Carter, Duke's one two punch inside? Really tough call for Self. Both are very active and strong. Mitch and Svi actually seem like they might be the guys mobile enough to guard them, but they will have a tough time against Bagley and Carter in a zone. Doke and Silvio, with their size would fare well offensively, but guarding two such mobile and active bigs could foul them up quick. What is up?
Who will guard Allen and who will Allen guard? Dook is well rounded in scoring, and depends most on Bagley, but Allen is the guy that goes off for big games from time to time. KU has to control Bagley AND Allen, and keep Trent and Carter, Dook's two 40% plus trey shooters pushed out. But KU can't let Allen go off. So: who guards Allen matters a lot? Its got to be someone that that can stand tripping and taunting. Coach K has likely adopted zone to protect Allen's slow feet. The tripping has been calculated to discourage attacking him. Looks like Svi would be best, but looks like Svi has to guard Wendell Carter, or Bagley, and contend with them on the glass. Allen is likely to become Lagerald's problem. Lagerald has had his own problems for a stretch of the season, but Self has rarely hesitated to stack the load on Lagerald. Lagerald is likely to face his greatest challenge in Allen for psychological reasons. Look for Marcus Garrett to come in and help with Allen.
Tripping and cheap shotting is a foregone conclusion with all Duke players whenever they get out of the lead. Coach K would not have his last two rings without cheap shotting. Its going to happen, whenever we're in the lead. The question is: what is the best response. Self mostly likes to let the other guy be the initiator and most often likes to let his guys take the punishment and shame the refs into calling the game. But Self also likes to surprise teams and occasionally preemptively cheap shots to surprise the opponents. This KU team has acquired more subtlety in its dishing out of contact, but it has not evidenced any skill or proclivity at cheap shotting yet. It seems a little too late to start now. My guess is KU will play it straight until the cheap shotting starts and then get very physical with Duke, rather than cheap shot. Cheap shotting is not something you can just start doing. It takes practice to do it and get away with it. KU has shown a number of times this season that it CAN dish out "the physical." "The physical" and "cheap shotting" amount to the same thing--heavy contact. But cheap shotting can have a sharper psychological operation impact, because it risks a lot of injury.
Who is the weak link? Trevon Duval in several, but hardly all ways. 28.7% from trey. 59.6% from FT. 42.1% overall. Why does he play? Defense. Ball handling. Assists. We have a sharp edge there with Devonte, but Duval's job is to hound opponents. Devonte could get annoyed by Duval's defense and if Devonte tries driving much, he could get some early charges. If Devonte can stay out of foul trouble, Devonte can take it to him the second half. Also, Duval's rotten trey shooting means Self can scheme a lot more help on other shooters.
Who do we need to keep off the glass? Bagley at 11 rpg. Carter at 9.
If Doke were not injured, I would say KU in a cake walk.
But Doke's injury really alters what Self can do and how hard our guys inside can play.
We'll just have to wait and see what the knee tweak did to him?
If KU shoots it well, even without Doke, I think KU wins by 10.
If KU shoots poorly, its probably a loss, unless Dook blows cold also.
The best case scenario for both teams is for both teams to have a lousy shooting game and win one laboring to find a way; then the winner comes to the FF with two hot hand games and wins a ring.
But that scenario seems less likely than one of the teams turning ice cold and losing.
Head says KU is do for an ice game, heart says KU stays hot.
Screw the head. KU wins it.
KU by 15 on general principle without any analysis at all.
Could go down in the CHEAP SHOTTING HALL OF FAME!
KU will wait for Duke to Cheap Shot first.
But then look out!
Mitch and Silvio need to be ready. Duke will go after Doke's knee immediately.
Malik is the one that needs to be most mentally tough. He will be flipped at least twice on drives. He is going to have to fight through it.
Marcus Garrett is going to have to come to play. At least one of our perimeter guys is going to have to sit 5-10 minutes for fouling on dish backs for Dook cheap shotting.
Rock Chalk!
Go KU!