@wrwlumpy said:
Also, did you ever notice that if you are a top recruit at the Three position that you will start at Kansas as a Freshman.
Position is a crucial driver on when high ceilinged players can quickly learn to perform at a D1 level and when they cannot.
Either front court position in a high low means an OAD not only has to have strength, and basketball skills, to go with high ceilinged athleticism, but also requires a player be able to deal with enforcers using intimidation and cheap shotting that can be XTRemely dangerous to a young person physically and/or mentally that is not savvy enough and mean enough to protect themselves.
In the High Low, Self can, if he has a strong front court, scope the role of 2, or 3, to limit how much a 2, or 3, has to go up against the blue meanies. Sometimes he protects them, as he did with Xavier, and sometimes the players handlers appear to limit the amount of risk the player is willing to take, as appeared the case with Andrew Wiggins. Other times, as with Josh Selby, Self appears to say this guy is ready to go to the rim almost from the first tip.
In the High Low, there is no protecting a 4, or a 5, from the blue meanies. They are there in the paint and guarding Self's freshman 4s and freshman 5s seeming more and more frequently and more and more aggressively as the season progresses. It has been a VERY, VERY tough game in the paint during the Self tenure. Self's philosophy of play it any way they want means Self really cannot protect 4s and 5s on the floor from opponents that choose to play in a highly aggressive and physical way. Self's 4s and 5s, be they freshmen, or fifth year seniors, have to play man 2 man defense and have to knock blue meanies off spots on defense, and on offense they have to fight for spots and fight to stay on them. Absolutely crushing forearm smashes, and face punches, and throws to the floor, and so on occur at a level of intensity and degree of aggressiveness that todays OADs that have not grown up in play ground ball have even a clue about how to both protect themselves from, and skillfully counter attack, and on occasion preemptively attack. Anyone that watches the game for awhile in the paint knows that it frankly takes guys with almost a football level of aggressiveness to play front court in D1. To send green bean poles like Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo on to the floor against 3rd, 4th and 5th year blue meanies that being sent out to intimidate them, because they ARE green, and then to actually hurt them, if they prove that they can handle the intimidation..."is a sin, Mr. Finch. Its a sin to kill a mocking bird, that's what it is." And sending green OADs, especially those with high ceilings, that didn't grow up tough on the play grounds to play against 3rd, 4th and 5th year guys that often did grow up on the playgrounds, and are playing not because they are so talented, but because they know how to break up an opposing team's rhythm with physical play; that's a sin in my book.
Self is a coach. A coach is a teacher. Teachers are not supposed to teach quantum mechanics to 17 year olds that have not even had a solid calculus course, regardless of how high the kid's IQ is. Kids need some foundation courses to do well in higher level courses, even if they are smart. Basketball is the same, only more so, because the blue meanies don't just laugh at you for not being able to hold a spot. They start going through you. And if you go down to the other end and use your athleticism to score a basket over them, as guys with high ceilings, like Diallo, often can do, them the forearm smashes and stiff screens follow. And if you are really good like Joel Embiid, pretty soon you are up ended and floored on your most vulnerable regions. Joel Embiid did not know how to protect himself from the blue meanies, because he had not grown up on a playground playing the game that way. It doesn't make any difference how high one's ceiling is, or even how high one's foundation is, if you don't know how to keep your nose from being pushed out the back of your head, or don't know how to shield yourself from a forearm smash to the wind pipe, or how to strike preemptively in a way that makes the blue meanie say, "Okay, that's it for the rough stuff from me," then you are just a medical red shirt waiting to happen, or worse.
Out at the 3, or 2, or 1, you can get hurt driving, and you can catch a stiff screen, and the guys that sharpen their finger nails and scratch corneas for fun, they can get you out there, too, but its not an every play risk. And its easier for point guards and wings to run away from trouble, because the position rarely devolves to a muscling contest the way it does in front court.
To me it makes sense that point guards and wings can more often step in and be 20-30 mpg types. And mostly not get stunted. But does anyone remember how Tyshawn ran from contact his freshman and sophomore seasons on back side drives? It took forever for him to work up the courage and strength to go inside where the blue meanies where.
This is one helluva tough game--D1 college basketball--and it gets a lot tougher in the NBA.
And there are some guys that are ready to rock and roll from the very beginning. You remember some of these guys from your high school. They looked 25 years old when they were 18. But mostly guys that were 18 looked like they were 17 and often had about as much moxie as 16 year olds.
If I were Carlton Bragg's and Cheick Diallo's parents, I would almost be kissing Bill Self's hand right now for keeping these two pipe cleaners out of harms way as much as he has been.
Think about it a second.
The averages @HighEliteMajor gave us don't tell us a thing about any one specific case's abilities to start and play 20-30 mpg as freshmen.
The averages are by definition composed of the guys that can and the guys that cannot. The averages include the guys that are playing because their coaches have no one as good, or no alternative at all, and the guys that actually would play even if the coach had some alternatives. The averages include everything.
The average tells us that out of all these guys, there is strong probability that your guy could be one of the guys that can do it, and a lesser probability that he is one of those that cannot.
This is the point where the coach's judgement has to be trusted, or the coach needs to be fired and replaced.
Since Self has started and played several OADs, while limiting and protecting the minutes of others, I have to think that Self has no bias against starting OADs that are ready.
And looking at the way Bragg and Diallo play so far, and given that they play in the front court, I'm thinking maybe these two guys really aren't ready to be 20-30 mpg players and that Self, the players and we are lucky we have some older guys that can keep Self from having to do to Bragg and Diallo, what he felt he had to do with Perry Ellis. OMG! Think of the difference between Perry Ellis as a senior and Perry Ellis as a freshman. The guy started some and played a ton of minutes, but there was no amount of minutes Perry could have played as a freshman that would have "developed" him into the player he is this season.