🏀 KuBuckets Archive

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Okay.... how do we get our butts kicked in the first half, then come out and make a 25-point gain in 10 minutes? Are we taking our cues from Mahomes and the Chiefs? Maybe...

Let's get this straight immediately... HOFr coaches like Bill Self and Andy Reid (Eagles HOFr) prefer winning the 2nd half of games over winning the 1st halfs. That makes sense... having our comeback be the last comeback in the game. Surely there is more to all of this... can't we just beat down top teams from the beginning to the end? Well....

Let's state some hypotheticals. In the middle of games, is it easier for the team behind to raise their level of play, or is it easier for the team ahead to raise their level of play even higher? Seems to be the first. Another hypothetical, which situation is lesser of a bummer; being outplayed from the beginning of the game, or being outplayed later in the game after you won the early part of the game? I think it is easier for a coach to convince his players they started slow instead of convincing them to regain their motivation after already having it in a game.

So should we just concede the first half of games? I don't think Self wants this either... but how about if we go down by just a few points before half? Would that be enough to really get our guys turned up the second half?

I think we need Jesse Newell. He's always been our source for statistics when we need them. I bet he could run the stats on the Self era. What are our point totals in the second half of games where we trail in the first half? And when we lead in the first half? Is it different numbers for some teams and some coaches that really stick out? Win/loss record based on where we were after the first half?

Many of us have challenged Coach Self on not bringing teams ready to play. Is this by design? Or is it possible he is a better motivator when his players are playing from behind?

Jaybate... where are you?

Are we really 25 points better than Baylor in 10 minutes? I guess so since it happened, but we shouldn't make a statement like this is apples playing apples. If it was then Baylor is also 13 points better than us in a half.

How do games change this drastically?

I believe not every team can easily run up a 25-point advantage on other teams like we can. When we own the mojo, we turn TOs into quick points, often treys. When we own mojo our half-court offense moves the ball better than any NBA team.

I should define "mojo" before going further. To me, mojo starts with self-confidence and ends with hustle, high-energy, moving feet, having mental focus and awareness, and attacking on both sides of the court which creates effectiveness on both sides of the court. Typically, the basket gets big because energy, focus, and clarity help bring up shooting percentages.

Does that explain why we outscored Baylor by 25 in 10 minutes? No. In most situations, there is only so much mojo in a game! If mojo grows for one team, it usually comes from the other team. All that energy, clarity, and effectiveness Baylor brought to the first half, we owned in the second half, and they didn't! This is so important to understand in competitive sports. Knowing that for everything you may have lost in part of the game can flip the other way, too. Most teams can't keep their mojo for 40 minutes.

This Self team doesn't give up. They are capable of flipping the tide in games, even by scoring +25 on a Top 10 team like Baylor. Self mentions how tough this team is. This is why. Right here.

This does not represent the entire spectrum for proving toughness. How do we respond to playing a team that doesn't dip for 40 minutes? This is the perfect question to ask going into March. Can we go head-to-head with a team that doesn't give away their mojo? I'm saying this at the right time because didn't we suffer a complete beatdown from TCU at home?

I heavily advise we come out strong against TCU and not count on a second-half comeback. This tactic did not work the first time with TCU!

@drgnslayr Your great analysis reminds me of our old friend jaybate. Thanks for the post. I sure hope for a closer game in the first half against TCU. My aging heart can't take too many more of these dramatic comebacks. KU's extra effort in the second half reminds me of NBA teams, where they just stay close through the 3rd Q, then turn up the effort in the 4th Q.

@stoptheflop

Hard to believe we played UNC in the National Championship less than a year ago. UNC largely has the same team and they are a bust this year.

Where is their mojo?

Surely they understand if they have the mojo they can play with anyone... yet... they can't find it.

@drgnslayr did you listen to Self in post game?

@Crimsonorblue22

No.... did now! What stuck out was his comment about TCU playing 40 minutes of what Baylor did in 20. My fear exactly about Monday!

What I want to know.... did Self instruct his guys to pick up their guards at halfcourt going into the second half? Or did they just do that with their mojo? When you add that with our extra energy, we completely took Baylor out of their offense. Finally.

I am sure staff pointed out and emphasized to keep their guards off the 3pt line and make them go for hard 2pt buckets.

KU players put a clinic and Baylor went into shock, missed at least one bunny on the rim.

I do think there is something to self saving the mojo for the second half. His substitution pattern in the first half showed that was really his goal. We were playing with Baylor early and the at one point joe Bobby and Udeh were all on the court at the same time. I feel like it went from a tie game to like a 6-8 point game during that stretch and those Baylor guards got comfortable. The shot chart in the first half showed that a bunch of their buckets came from those guys just walking into threes one on one at the top of the key, driving for easy layups or getting threes off of offensive rebounds. We actually didn’t defend THAT bad the first half. They just made 3 or 4 REALLY tough threes over good d that most teams just don’t even shoot. In the second half our bench still played but not all at the same time. They were more blended with the starters keeping 3-4 of those guys on the court at all times.

I will also say George for Baylor was the biggest example of your mojo throughout the whole game. He was terrible early. He took a seat, refocused and asserted his will for a good portion of the late first half. Once he missed a couple of the ill advised shots that went down for him in the first half but not in the second, he was done. A lot of our easy buckets at the rim came at his expense on the defensive end. Self would have yanked him so fast but Drew left him out there to get beat over and over again hoping his hero shots would come back at some point. They didn’t. He wasn’t even the dude we really turned up the defense on. That was the other two guards. We just let George wilt when his big bros weren’t allowed to carry him.

And lastly, of course TCU is finding their mojo right as we are about head to their place. Let’s hope we can carry some of our own mojo over to the next game but I’m nervous about the short turn around and on the road against a suddenly whole TCU team.

@drgnslayr said in What was that? "MOJO TRANSFER!":

@Crimsonorblue22

No.... did now! What stuck out was his comment about TCU playing 40 minutes of what Baylor did in 20. My fear exactly about Monday!

What I want to know.... did Self instruct his guys to pick up their guards at halfcourt going into the second half? Or did they just do that with their mojo? When you add that with our extra energy, we completely took Baylor out of their offense. Finally.

Yes, that was the adjustment Self made on defense at halftime. He told McCullar and Harris to stay on Crier and Flagler no matter what and have Adams and Udeh hedge instead of switching on the screens. He also said that he didn't do it sooner because he didn't think they had the energy to do that for 40 minutes.

@stoptheflop said in What was that? "MOJO TRANSFER!":

Your great analysis reminds me of our old friend jaybate.

Like jaybate but I didn't have to consult a dictionary or encyclopedia!

@Texas-Hawk-10 yes, my point was no switching on those 2 guards! Flagler only had 2 the second half I believe. Trapping guards gave them some trouble too. Drew did nothing to address it.

@mayjay said in What was that? "MOJO TRANSFER!":

Like jaybate but I didn’t have to consult a dictionary or encyclopedia!

Ha.... me, too! I felt like dealing with Jaybate was a learning experience in many areas!

Those changes in the second half would have crushed us if we didn't come out with a lot more energy!

Now... what are we going to do on Monday? How are we going to stop Miles? Push the action to halfcourt and double-team?

Great stuff from our senior staff writer @drgnslayr, up for a pulitzer in sports reporting!

As a long time basketball fan I've seen lots of comebacks, and maybe half that fail. Team A will go bananas erasing a 15 point deficit. Flying around the court, much like we did yesterday in the first 5 minutes of the 2nd half. So often a team finally climbs the mountain and ties it or even takes a slim lead and they begin to celebrate like they've done it, they made it all the way back. Team B comes back down, and jacks a successful 3, Team B is now losing again, and it mentally deflates them to the point that they fall back into the mistakes that led to their big original deficit.

KU has been strong in these comebacks. Their resolve in not letting down is evident. They keep playing with an urgency, almost pretending like they're still coming back.

I think it's a hallmark of Bill Self teams. You rarely see them go into coast mode. Win the game is the aim and instead of playing like the football team playing a prevent defense they just keep playing until victory is assured. I'm sure someone will remind me of other blown leads in the Self era, but other than the infamous Michigan meltdown in 2013, I can't think of a major blown game under Bill Self.

Anyone else noticing we finally have a team that breaks presses easily and turns it into points? Feel like we struggled with that for a few years. But I feel like pressing this team is like zoning the 08 team. Like, yes please. Give us a few buckets for free while you figure out that plan won’t work.

I’m just excited this team has found its top gear. They now know how truly great they can be. From here on out it’s just a matter of if they can find that again when they really need it. We know it’s not sustainable for 40 minutes for 6 straight games but really 10 minutes of it is clearly overwhelming. If they can pick their spots and catch some breaks we could be having some fun in March.

@benshawks08 just need to stop fouling!

@drgnslayr said in What was that? "MOJO TRANSFER!":

I think we need Jesse Newell. He’s always been our source for statistics when we need them. I bet he could run the stats on the Self era. What are our point totals in the second half of games where we trail in the first half? And when we lead in the first half? Is it different numbers for some teams and some coaches that really stick out? Win/loss record based on where we were after the first half?

Challenge Accepted!

I have the last 5 years numbers. That took long enough to find.

@drgnslayr

Last 5 years- 203 game sample size.

KU has trailed in 62/203 games at half (roughly 30%).

Of those 62 games, the opponent has won only 30/62 for 48%.

KU when leading or tied at halftime- 131/141 for 92%.

The largest halftime deficit an opponent has overcame against KU in the last 5 years is 11- Texas 2021 on the road.

KU has overcame 7 halftime deficits of 10+ points

Here's a crazy, crazy one. KU has trailed at half (1-9 points) in 24 games. KU has won ALL 24.

They have been tied at half in only 10 games, 8/10 win record.

KU when leading at half- (0-9 pts), 67 games, 61/67 win record 91% win record.

Let me know what specifics you want whether its team/home/away/coach etc.

23 times an opponent has led at halftime in Allen Fieldhouse. KU has won 17/23 of those games.

Arizona St is the only team to win in Allen when losing at halftime. Only 4 teams have even won the 2nd half in scoring when losing at halftime 4/74.

On the road: Losing at halftime 22/61 (36%), opponents have won 16/22 games when leading at halftime. 2nd half adjustments are tough on the road.

KU tied or winning at halftime on the road has won 31/39 (79%).

Neutral Court: KU has been down at halftime in 8/21 games and lost 4/8 of those.

KU has lost 1/13 games it led at halftime (Dayton 2022).

Big-12 Tourney/NCAA Tourney:

KU has been down in 9/24 games and lost 4/9 of those with UNC marking the biggest comeback.

KU hasn't lost a tourney game it has led at halftime in the last 5 years.

KU trailing at halftime (1-9 points), 4/4 wins.

@BeddieKU23 - great information! Thanks for your work here.

@Gorilla72

Thanks, saw the request and figured this was in my wheelhouse. While it took a lot of time to get the last 5 years it was actually kind of cool reliving the games and these stats are so crazy. Some of them were hard to believe

Sure, the Jayhawks have more overall losses than Alabama, Houston and Purdue, and they're lower in the NET and most predictive metrics, but their record-based résumé is unparalleled. They have the No. 1 overall strength of schedule, the most Quadrant 1 wins in the country -- by four -- and the most Quadrant 1 and 2 wins in the country, by three. The average NET of their wins is comfortably the lowest, and they're tied for the lowest average NET in losses. All five of their losses were to teams ranked in last week's AP poll.

Kansas has four games left: at TCU and Texas and hosting West Virginia and Texas Tech. If the Jayhawks win all four, I don't see how they go into Champ Week without a chance to earn the overall 1-seed on Selection Sunday.

From Jeff Borzello:
3. Kansas Jayhawks (22-5)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: at TCU (Monday), vs. West Virginia (Saturday)

Start the back-to-back national championship talk. Kansas' second half against Baylor on Saturday was an exceptional 20-minute display -- the Jayhawks outscored the Bears 55-26 en route to an 87-71 win. Dajuan Harris Jr. was the catalyst, finishing with 14 points and nine assists. Jalen Wilson did usual Jalen Wilson things, scoring 21 points and grabbing 13 boards. And Kansas' defense, after letting Baylor's backcourt do whatever it wanted in the first half, dialed in. A positive trend for the Jayhawks: Wilson's supporting cast. I've written a few times this season how Wilson getting consistent help generally results in wins for Kansas. Against Baylor, three other players scored at least 14 points. It was the same against Oklahoma State. Four guys hit double figures in the win over Oklahoma. Kansas is rounding into form at the right time.

@BeddieKU23 I'd be very interested to know WHY they wore those idiotic uniforms with the flowers and butterflies and unicorns. ???? I'm pretty sure they had all that crap on them - but i had to keep diverting my eyes so they wouldn't burn.
Seriously, Great info - thanks!

@BeddieKU23

Outstanding work! This says so much!

"Here’s a crazy, crazy one. KU has trailed at half (1-9 points) in 24 games. KU has won ALL 24. They have been tied at half in only 10 games, 8/10 win record."

So we kick butt when being down under 10 at half. Undefeated! Even better than if we are tied.

All that being said... having a 92% win rate when being up at half is overwhelming when you consider the sample size of 141 games. I think I would rather rely on the 92% of 141 games over the 100% of 24 games. Still...

Looking at tonight's game... I highly suggest we get out and take a halftime lead in this one. TCU has some catching up to do in our league and also heading into March so they will be pumped up. Miles is back and we didn't know how to handle him or the TCU offense in AFH.

Even though we have a disadvantage of venue (over playing in AFH), I think we have improved considerably since our last meeting while TCU is struggling to catch back up after losing Miles for several games. Let's hope this is the difference and we keep piling up the "Ws" as March approaches and a 1-seed is in sight!

Key match-up: Miles vs Harris. Miles owned us last time and Harris only shot 4 times. Everyone now is focused on Harris scoring... Can he do it on the road against Miles? Going to be tough and less likely in the half-court offense. We better rebound and defend well so we can push the ball in the open court. Open-court offense also creates many scoring opportunities for Juan.

Strategy: Defend, rebound, push open-court offense. Defense leads the charge... something we can do as well on the road or at home. Guard from half-court and trap. Do this right from the beginning so TCU can never feel comfortable in this game!

Big key is to NOT be down by double-digits at half!

Just to run with the Mojo Hypothesis, Beddie's data generally supports what we might expect if Mojo exists: it's easier to bring and sustain it at home. And the particular quality of Mojo at Allen - let's call it PhogMojo - apparently surges if the team is down a few at half (rather than down a bunch, say), anyway this is how I'd explain the 100 percent correlation between 1-9 point halftime deficits and wins. Of course there are many other factors that influence it (adjustments, inspirational speeches, etc.) so we'd have to do a game-by-game assessment of whether/how much we can see Mojoshifts in those games. I just bet, though, that we'd find palpable shifts most of the time between both the crowd and team state of mind. So, I wonder if Mojo might be an essential quality or capacity in home court advantage - might explain, that is, the intangible but ultimately measurable tilt in the playingfield.

@BeddieKU23

So.... this is VITAL for us to obtain victories....

We NEVER want to be down +10 at halftime! Even though we won 7 of those... we dropped 32! We've only lost 42 games in this period... 32 by being down +10 at halftime.

Amazing stats... you can almost set your watch by seeing the halftime score.

Let's look at this in percentages... you may need to correct me:

KU Winning %

KU down +10 at half: 21%

KU down 1-9 at half: 100%

KU tied at half: 80%

KU leading at half: 91%

So overall, we win at about a 90% clip whenever we are not down by more than 9 at halftime! Probably not nearly this good while on the road.

These stats are crazy.... when considering his 2 national titles, conference winning streak, recruiting class rankings, and overall winning percentage against the strength of schedule...

Don't we have to consider Coach Self the best D1 men's coach of all time? GOAT!

John Wooden? Are we comparing apples to apples?

I don't think I'm ready to anoint him Goat yet. Definitely best active coach. But. And I say this with the hope that he will stay longer than many think he will. CS could imo do things over the next 10-15 seasons that are somewhat unfathomable outside of John woodens consecutive NC streak. I honestly think he has adapted to what the game needs so well, and to what the kids need so well that he could pull off another 4-5 NC's in that time span. Hope I'm right and if so there won't be anymore need for Goat discussions. Lol

@cragarhawk Definitely one of those grey areas

🐦 View Tweet?t=TkBAwccoIe361Bli0G3lCQ&s=19

Billy Eugene. Bow down

@cragarhawk Agreed, but it's a very short list of GOAT candidates, maybe just BS and JW, at least it looks that way to me.

@cragarhawk said in What was that? "MOJO TRANSFER!":

I don't think I'm ready to anoint him Goat yet. Definitely best active coach. But. And I say this with the hope that he will stay longer than many think he will. CS could imo do things over the next 10-15 seasons that are somewhat unfathomable outside of John woodens consecutive NC streak. I honestly think he has adapted to what the game needs so well, and to what the kids need so well that he could pull off another 4-5 NC's in that time span. Hope I'm right and if so there won't be anymore need for Goat discussions. Lol

Definitely best active coach. And, do I believe he is one of the handful best ever. But, in the pantheon of GOAT, he's not there yet although is likely to end up on Mt. Rushmore. Others might weigh these differently, but I would posit that the key metrics are: national championships, wins, winning percentage, overall consistency, and conference titles - roughly in that order for me.

Who is he definitely or arguably behind as of now on some combination of these:
Wooden
K
Roy
Dean Smith
Calhoun
Rupp
Knight
Boeheim (not really)

In terms of consistency and conference dominance, HCBS is already arguably top of the mount. After next year, he should be in the top 10 of all time wins. Would need another ~8 years to get to 1000. He's near the top in winning percentage. With just the same level of consistent success for another 5 years, I think he passes all but Wooden, K and maybe Roy (who doesn't get nearly enough credit with his success at 2 programs and 3 NCs). One more NC is enough to pass Roy with everything else to his credit.

Everyone is vying for the #2 spot. Wooden has #1 tied up in a way that can’t be replicated. - if all you care about are championships and not how they came to be. For modern coaches Bill has to be top 5 if not top 3. For active coaches #1, every one of his peers retired.

I think he’ll be considered the GOAT after two more final fours and one of those being a title. We all bring up Wooden but the landscape then was not even close to being how it is today and yet Self is still consistent. I’m not sure he’ll coach long enough to get a fourth title but I’d love to be proven wrong!

He’d definitely go up a peg or two if he had back to back natties. 🏆🏆

And just read a PHOF quote from Seth Greenberg “Bill Self is one of those guys who can take his team and beat you, and he can take your team and beat you”

Bill will have to do something special to pass up K for GOAT status. Just the truth, whether we like it or not. If anyone were going to go back to back to back it would be Billy Eugene.

@StLJhawk

Best thing that ass-hat has said in many moons.

@dylans It's not the same. Yes, Wooden was an incredible coach. But, he had unlimited access to whomever he wanted. And everyone wanted to play for him. I don't know (or believe) that he'd have those kinds of numbers in today's world.

@BeddieKU23 said in What was that? "MOJO TRANSFER!":

@Gorilla72

Thanks, saw the request and figured this was in my wheelhouse. While it took a lot of time to get the last 5 years it was actually kind of cool reliving the games and these stats are so crazy. Some of them were hard to believe

One of the best ones was when we erased a double digit 2nd half lead on the road to WVU and ended up winning easily. That game sticks out to me.

@Jethro

For some reason the WVU home game with Devonte sticks out more than that Road Game in my head but when I was collecting the data that game was a definite outlier.

Down 13 at half, outscored them by 18 in the second half.

Here's some stats on KU/West Virginia last 5 years. 14 games.

First half, KU +2.5 pts avg ahead

Second Half, KU +8.5 pts avg ahead

KU has beaten West Virginia on average by 10 points in their last 14 matchups. 12-2 record in this span, both losses on the road.

KU's record last 5 years against Big-12 foes.

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@BeddieKU23 That list shows how tough our league has been. There's no team there that we've absolutely owned.

I think both home games will be tough.

@nuleafjhawk said in What was that? "MOJO TRANSFER!":

@dylans It's not the same. Yes, Wooden was an incredible coach. But, he had unlimited access to whomever he wanted. And everyone wanted to play for him. I don't know (or believe) that he'd have those kinds of numbers in today's world.

I don’t believe he would either, but he did. No taking away what happened. Many think he was a cheater. The tournament had less participants. He got all the talent Etc. he just won it every stinking year. - if just talent accumulation was all it took to win Kentucky would have won most years since Cal arrived.

The only argument that I feel isn’t disingenuous is - there is no catching him so why talk about Wooden? Forget he exists and your guy can be considered for GOAT

Modern GoAT status is up for debate. All time is still Wooden’s. For comparison Wooden coached 27 years and won 10 championships. Coach K - 5 championships in 42 years. Bill has 2 in 25 years, but he’s the GOAT in my heart.

@dylans Well said.