We have reached the precipice. We've been here before. Last season, after a rough stretch of games through early December, it was quite obvious that Self-ball and the lineup constructed by Self weren't meshing. We couldn't play defense, and the modified rules application didn't help. We were soft. We were finesse.
Everything we said about that team this time last December was true, and it played itself out over the course of the season, resulting in a March collapse. Embiid's injury severely limited our options in March. Even then, Self refused to change our style of play, or modify the focus of our offensive schemes. It was pound it inside. The Self mantra -- we do what we do.
This season, we stand 8-1. Quite impressive. And we stand at 8-1 in large part due to better preparation, both by players and coaches. This team "fits' with Self's style of play much better than last season's team. Everything looks better. And it starts defensively.
But what has become obvious through the first nine games of this season is that we have an outside/in team being forced to play inside/out. We continue to ignore our offensive assets.
It has never been worse than the second half yesterday. Self clearly instructed his crew to pound the ball inside. To work "inside-out" as he said in the post game interview. And it nearly cost us the game. In the first half, we were 5-8 from three, then just 1-3 in the second half. This team only shot 11 three pointers.
And Self is wondering why we are offensively challenged?
This season, Self has constructed a team that more fits his style of play. Defensively, they are dominant. I don't toss that word around flippantly. Team wise, they are dominant. The impressive defensive efforts we have seen are without the vaunted (and perhaps overvalued) rim protector.
But we are missing that one important element -- reliable inside scoring. Of course, Ellis is good. And he can score. But he can be shut down. Long, tall, athletic guys destroy him. And when teams scheme to stop him, as it appeared Utah did after Ellis' early flurry, he's limited.
Self diagnosed the obvious issue: “We don’t throw it to the post and score. We’re not very big. Then our two biggest guys have a hard time in there. They haven’t developed that yet. We’ve got to find different ways to manufacture points, and we’re not doing it off our defense and we’re not doing it in transition.”
We have to find a way to manufacture points? This statement is astonishing from a coach whose team just shot only 11 three point shots (making six). "Manufacture points?"
How about scheming to your strength?
Here's the ultimate issue: How does this version of the Kansas Jayhawks win the national championship? Of course, it is the only relevant question.
How do we maximize our offensive pieces -- not just to win conference, not just to succeed in Ames, or Waco -- but to win the national title?
It is painfully obvious. But is it obvious to Self?
Self said: “What we’ve always done, whatever we’ve done, we’ve always tried to get a lot better at doing what we do,” Self said. “I don’t think it’s the kids’ fault. I think it’s something we’ve got to come up with a way to help them, more than us doing better at what we do. We’ll come up with something. It won’t be a major deal, but we’ve got to do some things to get them to believe (that) what we do works.
We have hammered this since before the season. Maximize the skill set on your roster.
The only reason we won at Georgetown was Brannen Greene's epic performance. The power of three. Three pointers win games. Three pointers are critical when your team is so plainly deficient in its two point game.
Self could rationalize the value of the two pointer -- at 65% in the post, 100 shots would yield 130 points. To approach that, you would need to shoot over 43% to equal the post game. I get it.
But that isn't the 2014-15 version of the Kansas Jayhawks.
This KU team should play outside/in. Play to its strength, which will also help open up its weakness. Outside/in means shoot a much higher volume of three pointers. Turn the boys loose.
Here are some discussion points:
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Why Play Outside/In? -- Fools Gold: Self is famous for using the term "fool's gold." He uses it to describe successes that really aren't worth much, but create a false sense of security. That's our inside game right now. Ellis can take it to guys that are not long, athletic, or tall. In the tourney, we'll bump up against that type of team. We need to be able to beat that type of team to win the title. Does anyone envision any realistic scenario where we beat UK without a strong three point showing?
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Stats Back It Up: Read @Jesse-Newell's article today ↗ on our two point rates. It hammers the point. We are making just over 50% of our shots at the rim, compared to prior teams making appx. 65%. We get 14% of our shots blocked, which is way above prior teams (at 9% or below). And here's the big one -- we are shooting just 50.3% on shots at the rim, and are ranked 288th nationally in 2 point percentage. In the Self era, all teams except one have been in the top 30, and that team (2005-06) was 69th. This is incredibly instructive.
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Compare 2 point % to Last Season's Defense: Last season, our kryptonite was our defense. Remember the stats? Scoring defense was ranked in the mid-200s nationally, unlike really any other Self team. This season, it's the 2 point percentage. And that's because we can't get good shots up. It is a rerun of the Stanford game.
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Cliff: Self refuses to rely on Cliff. He seems to favor Traylor, many times. This is concerning to me. Cliff is your best talent. However, he is still 6'8", and will still face the scoring challenges inside. He's not a skilled scorer inside yet. That would come with more experience. But part of this equation is simply playing the guy 25 mpg. Best players on the court.
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Play Outside/In: This gets tossed around. But what does it mean? In this era, we're talking about three pointers. It does not mean just jacking up three pointers. But what it means is scheming to get open three point looks. Your team focus is to get those looks. You move your big men; you toss in to toss out; you run your shooters; you drive to push it out to the shooter. Watch Creighton. Very importantly, as well you scheme your personnel to the three pointer. This could certainly include playing small at the 4 to include an extra shooter.
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Inside Game That Results: Assuming we shoot at a decent three point rate, this changes the dynamic inside, and logically, creates better looks inside. Defenses have to stop us. And if we're scoring from outside, that's the biggest danger.
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Preseason Three Point Shooting Bluster: Self talked in the preseason about shooting more threes. The talk is cheap. This season, we are actually shoot few three pointers per game than any team under coach Self. Through yesterday's game, we're shooting a paltry 14.88 three pointers per game. Our number of three pointers per game has declined steadily since peaking in 2010-11 (which was the epitome of the inside/out team). This has to change.
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Credit To Self: We are 8-1. We can give Self all that credit. But we have to look forward. As Self recognized, the loss of Graham changes the dynamic of the team. In any case, it appears that he is recognizing the need to create more offense. And that his team, as constructed, can't score the ball inside.
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Concern With Self: In the quote above, Self finished the statement with the following - ",,, but we’ve got to do some things to get them to believe (that) what we do works. " That won't work. That will not lead to a national title this season.
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Three Point Attempts: Iowa St. shot over 23 three pointers per game last season. We don't have to become Iowa St. But 20 per game should be the target. This KU team has the skill set to shoot over 40% from three point range. Greene and Mason both appear to be guys that can shoot mid 40s; and from this point forward, I'm confident that Selden, Ellis, and Svi can be at or near the 40 mark. Oubre likely more in the 35% range.
Three point shooting is the method to "manufacture" the points that coach Self is admittedly looking for. But as with other items that may benefit KU basketball, the question always comes back to Self -- can he adapt? Will he even consider working outside of the box (and outside of his pound it inside philosophy)?
I'm a skeptical pessimist (if that is a proper term) when it comes to Self changing anything. Thus, despite being 8-1, I am doubtful that a national title is in our future. I love this team, I love our players, but we are plainly not maximizing our assets on offense.
As usual, Self is the one person most in control of altering determining our destiny.
*As a complete aside, when looking at 2 point %, our 2010-11 team was ranked #1. Further, our 2010-11 team had the highest 3 point % in the Self era. And we lost to VCU. The title left on the silver platter.