@JayHawkFanToo
I'd rather Thon didn't reclassify and came in the Class of 2016 because that's where our frontcourt hole opens up. As @BeddieKU23 said above, we will lose 3 frontcourt guys after next season at a minimum, with the possibility that Bragg and/or Alexander is also gone, meaning we will be very thin up front going into the 2016-2017 season. I'd rather have Maker in that class than in the current one because he's almost certainly an OAD.
Looking around the recruiting landscape right now, the class has kind of filled out strangely. Every player ranked from 17 to 32 on the ESPN 100 is already committed. Of the players ranked 20-50 (the non-OAD high level recruits) only #33 SG Tyler Dorsey and #37 PF Ted Kapita (both of whom KU is recruiting) are not committed. Only 3 players in the 51-100 range are not committed.
However, 9 of the top 16, including 7 of the top 10 remain uncommitted. That means that some recruiting classes could get a whole lot better in a hurry. It also means that whoever doesn't find a recruit in this game is going to be left really scrambling because there just isn't anything close to comparable talent out there.
For example, if you are looking for a PF, there are 2 big time guys on the board in #5 Rabb and #7 Diallo. There's a solid option in #37 Kapita. Miss on those three and you have #93 Shawntrez Davis. And that's it. Four PF prospects in the top 100. Miss on those four and you're looking at juco transfers, degree completed guys and non top 100 guys. If you need a PF that can play major minutes in a major conference next year, you have 3 guys, maybe 4 with Davis, depending on how he transitions. Everything else is a crapshoot.
If you're looking for a PG, you are already out of luck. There's not a single top 100 PG left.
If you need a center, you have options, but again, it's all or nothing. You're either landing an OAD prospect (#6 Diamond Stone, #8 Caleb Swanigan or #10 Stephen Zimmerman), you are grabbing #16 Thomas Bryant, or you are hoping Thon Maker reclassifies because there isn't another ranked center out there.
It seems as though more and more of the middle tier players are signing quickly, knowing that once the big time recruits start committing, they may see their top choices disappear. Of the committed players in the top 100, 80 have already signed.
My quick and dirty roster math for some of the other top schools:
UNC - I have them having at least one scholarship, with the possibility of 2 if Marcus Paige jumps to the NBA. They have signed one, so they hope they are done. If Paige leaves, there's no more PG's out there. It would be an actual disaster for UNC if Paige left at this point.
Duke - They only have 12 players listed on their current roster, so they are already 1 under (Ojeleye transfer). There are two seniors on the roster, and Jahlil Okafor is as OAD as they get. They have signed Chase Jeter to replace Okafor and Luke Kennard at the 2 spot. They have two more scholarships and are in on Brandon Ingram. They aren't listed for anyone else on ESPN right now, but that could change because they have a late scholarship to offer.
Kentucky - The math is a little weird here. They have no seniors on scholarship by my count, but they will probably have some NBA attrition. I am counting Cauley-Stein, Towns and Lyles as departures. Dakari Johnson is a maybe, but I think he stays. There could be a surprise departure here. Kentucky has already landed Skal Labissiere (C), Isaiah Briscoe (PG) and Charles Matthews (SG). That takes care of their allotment, although there could be a transfer situation here as well. They are still in on Brown, Newman, Diallo, Rabb, Swanigan, Zimmerman, Ingram and Bryant. I bet they sign one more, but they don't have room beyond that because everyone else is back.
Arizona - The lone western power right now has 2 seniors on scholarship. I think Brandon Ashley goes pro, along with Stanley Johnson and Kaleb Tarczewski. They have inked SG Allonzo Trier, SF Ray Smith, PG Justin Simon and C Chance Comanche. That leaves them with one spot and they are in on Rabb, Swanigan and Zimmerman. My guess is they land one of that trio.
Michigan St. - Izzo has learned the hard way that he can't just assume he will match up with toughness, that he needs talent too. Two seniors are leaving, but they are adding Eron Harris (transfer from West Virginia). They have signed three guys already, so I think they are done because I don't see any NBA attrition here.
Ohio State - OSU has at least five scholarships going to seniors. They have signed four. They will almost certainly sign at least one more, possibly two.
UCLA - They have at least two spots available, but they have already signed two. They are considering just about everyone, so my gut tells me they will probably sign two more if they can.
Texas - They will have two scholarships available at a minimum, but they have already signed two. They are in on Diallo, though, so they are sniffing around as if they have one more scholarship to offer.
So if you are counting at home, the math (and who may fill it) is as follows:
UNC - 0
Duke - 2 (Ingram and a transfer)
Kentucky - 1 (Brown)
Arizona - 1 (Rabb)
Michigan St. - 0
Ohio St. - 1 (Bryant)
UCLA - 2 (Swanigan and a non top 100 player)
Texas - 1 (Diallo)
Kansas - 2 (Newman and Zimmerman)
Of course, this could all go very wrong for a variety of reasons, and this would in many ways be the dream scenario for KU to land Newman and Zimmerman to add to what we have already and what we will bring back. That's just a monster lineup anyway you slice it.