@KansasComet
I was applauding the players. I put their individual performances in the very best possible light I could. In fact, I probably was too nice about the spread between expectations and outcomes. Outcomes just did fall wildly below expectations. Who is to say whether the expectations were too high, or the outcomes too low. I for one expected the team to lose 8-10 games and said so very early on, and once last summer, if I recall correctly, so my expectations were not high at all for what many said was the most talented team at KU in a long time. There was zero chance this team was going to be a super team up front. Their only prayer was to be healthy and get on a role in March. The minute I looked at Wigs' and Selden's sub 40% trey shooting, it was a given that this team was never going to dominate from the perimeter, unless Greene, Frankamp, or AW3 turned into a big minute, lights out shooter, which none did, of course. The teams only hope to be dominant was in their bigs and that really came down to Embiid, because no one else could rim protect. Embiid progressed super fast, or this team would have very likely have ten losses already, maybe more, and the world would be talking about how Self finally had his bad rebuilding season that Roy and every other coach has undergone the last ten years after a run of 3-4 hot seasons.
They are at 22-7 with two games to go and, if they play with fierce competitiveness, should hole out the regular season at 24-7, even without Embiid, which would be superb for how far short the individual players have fallen vis a vis expectations.
So best case scenario, as I estimated back near the start of the season, for this supposedly most talented team of Self's teams is eight losses, assuming they hole out two regular season games and get Embiid back for the B12 tourney and hole out the B12 tourney and go down in the Madness, or maybe run the table 6-0, avoiding a final loss.
To bring this all into focus, best XTReme Best Case scenario, this most talented of Self's teams has to win 11 straight games and a national championship to go out with 7 losses. Anything is possible, but that is a very tall order playing at least two games without Embiid, and maybe 3 more in the B12 conference tourney.
Probable scenario: KU splits without Embiid the last two games, then loses one with Embiid played sparingly in the conference tourney, then wins until Embiid gets injured again, say in the Elite Eight. That would yield a 10 loss season. That would equal the high end of my expected range.
Worst case scenario: Whew! This is where it gets scary. KU loses both games without Embiid, and doesn't get him back for the B12 tourney, or the Madness, and goes out the first week end, second game. Then it is an 11 loss season with a losing stench at the end. I thought the only way that could happen was with an injury to a key player, which is what has occurred.
But I never dreamed it would be to Embiid, because I never dreamed he would progress in his first season to the point of being our most crucial player. I figured Wigs would be that, but ifs and buts were candy and nuts, eh?
Anyway, the point that remains set in stone is that Self managed to get these guys to buy into a winning scheme (being a big man oriented team) very early, once it became clear that none of them, except Embiid, was going to be nearly as good as they were expected to be.
Imagine what would have become of this team had they not bought into Self's concept for the team!
It is positively scary to consider.
Suppose they had tried to play up tempo every game, even run balls to the walls! How about 25-30 TOs every game!
Suppose we had played through Wigs the way so many had expected. Suppose we had depended on Wigs, who is not yet strong enough to finish at the rim, to be THE GUY and often has appeared stunned at how rough the game was. Disaster!
Imagine if we had crafted a controlled running team around Wiggins' and Selden's and Mason's trey shooting! OMG!!! Help me, help me, help me, I think I'm going insane from that vision of free masonry bricking treys!!!!!
Next, imagine if Self had stuck with Perry Ellis as his most consistent scorer!!! OMG, can you imagine what in god's green earth would have happened in all of the games that Perry has done the disappear-o in? The W&L statement would have looked like an investment portfolio full of derivatives in 2008!!!!
Next, imagine if Self had crafted the kind of spread it out and let Tharpe, or Mason, operate in the center and create that yours truly suggested in a flight of madness one time. OMG!!!!!! It would have been a season of Tharpe getting the ball stolen, or Mason going 1-12 on missed finishes at the iron. More losses than Viagara bottles at a retreat for impotent Casanovas.
I'm not talking about this stuff to knock the players. They didn't create the expectations. Self and staff didn't create the expectations. The recruiting gurus drunk on listening to themselves and the media needing to sell us all shizz we don't even need created this insidious situation. But too many of us bought into it.
Self had a nice recruiting class that got blown up into something utterly NOT what it was. Oh it had all the trappings of a hyped recruiting class all right, but it didn't have the stunning level and number of match up advantages that Cal's random freak of OAD recruiting possessed one season only.
And the guys Self had coming back? Tharpe? Give me a fricking break. He was going to be a barely acceptable D1 point guard if everything broke his way and if Self found a way to mask him, something few coaches can do with a point guard.
And Ellis? Did anyone notice how tough it was for him to get into the rotation on a team with a 6-8 180 recycle from Loyola Marymount? What were people thinking? What kind of drugs were they taking? Did they seriously believe Perry Ellis, who lost his job to a 6-8 180 pound 4 his freshman season, was suddenly going to be able to come in and dominate the glass against blue meanies on top teams; that he was going to be able to hang 32 on a top tier conference team--on a top ten team nationally?
What I'm saying here is that once you go through detox, i.e., one you get through the DTs of going cold turkey on Basketball Hype Addiction, you see that what these players have done was just about what they were capable of doing (and anytime you reach your potential, you are a winner as John Wooden said); that they had to work their asses off, and play as hard as they possibly could, just to perform as well as they in fact did.
The players should be enormously proud of what they have accomplished, and so should the fans. The players have to play in the real world, where the laws of physics still hold in a way that they do not hold in Basketball Hype Space. In Basketball Hype Space, players like Perry Ellis can hang 32 against Syracuse on a good night. In Basketball Hype Space, freshman that declare a year early like talented Andrew Wiggins can play like 23 year old men and not only hop over 23 year old men, but out muscle them too. In Basketball Hype Space a substitute from Memphis can transfer and play like a starter without a season long transition required. In Basketball Hype Space freshman Wayne Selden can know how much faster D1 guys really are and never have to learn how to sit and put his faked out, scorched jock back on his hips. In Basketball Hype Space, lightening speed is all it takes for freshman Frank Mason to finish successfully at the rim 50% of the time against blue meanies that are not trying to keep up with him, but instead waiting to club him at the rim in D1. In Basketball Hype Space, freshman Brannen Greene can guard great players, play under control, and drill it from anywhere regardless of the match up he faces in D1.
In short, in Basketball Hype Space, all of KU's guys--newcomers and sophomores-- are seasoned D1 players from the moment they lace them up, or in the particularly drugged up state that many have been in this season, they are going to alchemically transform into such after 29 grueling game, while studying and traveling and trying to get used to not burning the candles at both ends with the young women they meet away from home for the first times in their lives.
Its all preposterous and we KU fans should never take this drug of over expectation again.
And while I am advocating turning down the Hype Pill, thank you very much, I am trying to call attention to the fact that Self has had balls the size of a Red Giant to tell these guys the truth, or did whatever he did to get them to see the truth, or simply loved them enough to recognize and let them be who they truly were, rather than force them to keep pretending they were things they weren't.
I'm trying to get people to wake up to the phenomenal job Self has done to craft something realistic out of all the ridiculous hype about these players.
I'm trying to get people to appreciate that once again Bill Self found a way for 15 or so kids to become the best "team" they could have been, rather than the most hyped bunch of individuals they could have been.
And I'm trying to say these players have been through a terrible crucible that no young men should ever have to go through again. Its hard enough and cruel enough just to try to survive the competition of learning to play D1 basketball without a bunch of false expectations swirling around you. No brave, hard working young man should ever again at KU have to put up with the obviously half baked baloney of expectations that has stalked this team so cruelly.
And what I am saying is so, whether they run the table or not.
If they win a ring or not.
If they win a ring, it will still be because they faced who they really were and accepted a team framework that could get them to the promised land.
The truly terrible and insidious thing is this: even if this team wins a ring, it will still not have lived up to its hype. They will just be a champion (still the greatest thing in sport to become), but then the hype machine will be using them to put another incoming recruiting class behind yet another eight ball of Basketball Hype Space.
Love these boys for what they have done and for the false hype they had to overcome.
Love these boys for proving inspite of it all that being the best you can be still matters more than being the most hyped you can be.
The boys are for real.
They hype never was.
The boys are good and could get on a roll still.
The hype never will.
Rock Chalk!
about what I expected best case.