I started out a doubter on Marcus Garrett, as a freshman.
By three quarters of the season, he made me a believer that he could defend and rebound.
For a game or two, it seemed he might find his stroke as a shooter, and become more than a defensive specialist, but then it never happened.
His season stats for offense as a freshman are as follows:
FG%, 45.6%
FT% 49.0%
3pt% 26.7%
These offensive stats can be viewed two ways.
View 1: its amazing Marcus played as well as he did, having been an unheralded freshman thrown into the frying pan, and a year of physical maturation and shooting practice will enable him to improve considerably on those stats, as a sophomore.
View 2: We have a defensive specialist that will get much bigger and stronger as he matures, and so become a lock down defender, but, Houston, we have a problem on offense.
I have seen freshman sharply improve their FG% and 3pt% over a four year college career with practice, better looks, and growing confidence and endurance. I have also seen them not.
But I do not recall a freshman that shot 49% from the FT stripe, become an 80% FT shooter, or even a 70% FT shooter. I suspect it has happened, and I don't recall it. But, regardless, I suspect the odds are strongly against a 49% FT shooter becoming better than a 65% FT shooter when all the practicing is done.
So: in the three point era that college basketball increasingly finds itself determined by, the question is: can KU afford Marcus Garrett's mediocre offense, especially his current 49% FT shooting as a starter to get his good to lock down level of defense at the 3, or better yet, the 2 position, where his 6-5 length might offer serious defensive match up advantage? Remember, even if he loads on the muscle, he will still not be as tall as some of the NBA bound 3s he would have to guard sometimes, especially from the Sweet 16 on.
In the old days of XTreme Muscle and Self Defense famed for putting bodies on offenders, Marcus Garrett, with another 15 pounds, would have fit right into the KU Jayhawks of 5 years ago, if Self were between draftchoice grade players at the 2, or 3.
But in the new days where wings must not only be able to stretch to guard the trey, but also make the trey, and in the contemporary game where one has to covert a short deuce into a short trey at the FT line, or one has wasted a possession against an opponent brimming with three point shooters, that 49% FT shooting percentage on 51 attempts and that 26.7% 3pt accuracy on 45 attempts is kind of concerning, even when one factors in some reasonable improvement.
Next year's team does not appear to have a single three point shooter as accurate as Svi (44%), DG (40%) and Malik (41%).
Put another way, last year's team had so many dead eyes that it could compensate for Garrett's offensive deficiencies, but the coming team appears not to be similarly able.
There is little question that Self has a place for a guy that can guard as well as Garrett. There is little question that Garrett will improve on defense and in his floor game. But there
significant question whether the likely improvement Garrett will make on offense will be enough for Self to afford Garrett as a starter on next season's team that may have significantly less efficiency on offense than the last one.
And if Doke and Silvio are no longer apart of the program, which now appears more than a 50/50 probability, well, does anyone think KU can guard its way into another conference title and a run in the Carney with Garrett starting and playing 30-35 minutes?
Self is a genius and a magician, but without a rim protector and without significant three point shooting, what will separate this coming KU team from most other mid echelon teams?
One has to hope that his two 5 star guards and Moore turn out to be prolific and efficient scorers from outside, because using Dedric like Wayne Simien in the 25-35 3 PTA era could be a rude awakening to the caustic after effects of the apparent recent recruiting embargo and the high risk recruiting baggage players that have not panned out in recent years.
In conclusion, it seems that Garrett's future as a starter depends on two things:
a.) how much can he improve that FT and 3PT shooting; and
b.) how efficiently productive on offense the new 5-star point guards turn out to be.
We have to assume, for the sake of our sanities, that the Lawson brothers will be effective D1 bigs regardless. If they fall short of expectations, we could be facing a blood bath, regardless.
