I'm super stoked for this matchup. Big contrast in styles, experience, and likability. I like KU to absolutely work the Devils in this one:
G: Dotson = Jones
This is a tough matchup to nail down. Jones is a really good defender, but not sure he can stay with Dotson in transition or if Devon drives it. Devon really needs to stay out of foul trouble. If Jones keeps shooting poorly, I'll like KU here.
G: Moss > Stanley
I don't love Stanley as much as some. He's a freak show athlete, but his skill level isn't great for a 2. Moss is bigger, a better shooter, and really improved defensively last year. Wait until Self gets ahold of him!
G: Agbaji > Moore
Word out of workouts is Ochai is primed for some kind of year, and don't be surprised if this is his last year in Lawrence. Moore is a good player too and very long for a wing. Ochai may have some trouble scoring, but should get a bunch of looks on lobs if K wants to play zone.
F: Silvio < Hurt
Silvio is still kind of an unknown given that he hasn't played in over a year. At very least, he'll work Hurt on the boards. I don't know if Silvio will be great at defending Hurt in space, and whether Hurt is consistent enough as a shooter to make it a real threat. He's just such a good passer that he could do some damage.
F: Doke >>>>> Carey
Carey is about an overrated a top 5 prospect as I've seen in a long time. Not really a motor to speak of and he thinks he's a guard half the time. Also Doke is going to be angry. You don't mess with Doke when he's angry. Carey has never seen anyone like Doke. Carey could be an issue if he can step out and shoot or drive. In some cases we may need to go small. Which leads me to...
Bench: KU >>>>> dook.
No real contest here. K's squad is really only working with a couple serviceable guys off the bench in DeLaurier, O'Connell, and White/Baker (are they the same person?). KU rolls in with Big Dave, Garrett, and now Jalen Wilson. Gives us great positional versatility to go big or small. It would be fun to watch Wilson guard Hurt and Silvio guard Carey. And no doubt Garrett can lock down anyone on dook's roster other than Carey.
If KU even kind of shoots it ok, could be a 15 point game. Even though this specific group hasn't played much together, they all have experience in high level college basketball. Every starter has played in and won a NCAA Tournament game. Silvio and Doke played in a Final Four. And Self doesn't like losing these games. Remember how he coached circles around another inexperienced dook team? Easy to see a repeat here.
Sorry for the long post. I'm just excited and on staycation!