🏀 KuBuckets Archive

NBC reporting this. I'm deflated, bummed, saddened, you get the idea.

@wissoxfan83 If this is true - buh-bye.

@wissoxfan83
 @wissoxfan83 His family friend told me that he would be "very much surprised" if Joel did not enter the draft about a month ago. Here is another link to the scoop-maybe it's all baloney, but I'm fairly confident it is true.

http://www.kansascity.com/2014/03/27/4919090/yahoo-report-sources-say-kansas.html ↗

Am not shocked at all but I'm bummed that it's quite possible now he will not ever reach his potential. What a thrill it was to watch his explosion under the rack !! I thought the "shake" was cool when he shot FT's too.

.

So, worst case, we have Ellis, Alexander (another likely OAD), Traylor, Lucas, Mickelson.

Or, we drool over another OAD (Turner).

Ok, back to my question a few months ago -- would you trade Embiid for Karviar Shepherd? (And I do understand that Shepherd picked TCU before Embiid picked KU, so this is and has been an illustration)

How on earth anyone could answer "no" at this point, well, I just would like to hear the logic.

Right now, I bet coach Self wishes he had Karviar Shepherd instead of Joel Embiid.

@wissoxfan83 Ever since I closed that automotive shop deal with the gentleman, Justin, from Cameroon, I was relatively certain he would declare. Justin simply seemed flabbergasted when I suggested that he (Joel) could possibly come back another year. That was before I asked if he knew Joel or his family, to which he later answered a polite & reserved yes. Saddened yes, but I'm certainly not surprised.

<a href="http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/27/report-joel-embiid-to-enter-the-2014-nba-draft/related/.

Either way, it's his decision. Hoped he would return. Maybe the recruiting business that Self was referring to this week was Turner. I hope he made a trip to Texas and we'll hear another announcement soon from Turner. If we get two announcements against KU, plus the way our season ended, it will be a really long Summer and frankly bball season next year. Many of you think we'll be fine without Embiid or Turner, you are in for a really rude awakening. You see what happened with Stanford? Cliff Alexander is huge, but he's not Embiid or Turner. We need a long center to protect the rim. Alexander will do his best but at 6-8,9, he's going to struggle a bit at the D1 level. Alex is a beast and will protect, but I'm seeing some foul trouble much like Black.

Here's hoping that if Embiid is gone and announces his decision to leave, Turner will be right behind him annoucing his decision to play at KU.

Also, Wigs is either doing some heavy consulting with family or he's wrapping up his representation in the NBA or agent. I can't believe we haven't heard an official announcement from Wigs. Is it possible to lose Embiid and maybe Wigs stays? Oh well...it's all good.

I have been defensive about Joel remaining, and I was dead wrong. I wanted to believe he was different - I really painted an imaginary scene in my mind where Joel would come back.

@HighEliteMajor NO offense to Traylor, Lucas or Mickelson, but they aren't near the talent and inside presence of Embiid or Turner. Lucas was lost in the games he played. We don't know what Mickelson is like and Traylor is becoming a stronger Ellis 2.0. Alex will hold his own, but he'll need some help inside. Alex is a better version and scoring threat than Black. He will be Black and more. Having Embiid or Turner would really free up Alexander and Ellis a bit inside. Traylor was really beginning to step up too. I can only hope that Mickelson learned from Embiid. Turner would be Embiid with a better outside threat. He can pull bigs out of the lane which is what we've needed when these teams sag in zone or man-man.

But once again, I'm looking for better pg play next year. If Tharpe is Self's pick for pg next year...it's going to be another long year.

@truehawk93

" If Tharpe is Self's pick for pg next year...it's going to be another long year"

Or, in terms of the actual number of basketball games, another short year.

@truehawk93 Well, sure, Traylor, Lucas, and Mickelson aren't near Embiid.

How do you know that Alexander is a better version of Black? Or that he will be "Black and more?" Would you expect him to do more than Black did against Stanford?

And you are projecting Turner basically to be every bit as good as Embiid but with a better outside shot? Embiid is being compared to Olajuwan, right? One of the best centers ever. Once in a decade type guy. And Turner is that plus a better outside shot.

Don't bank on it.

Let's not fall for these OAD guys too quickly now and imagine them to be better than what we had. It's easy to fantasize that they'll be immediate studs. Just don't bite too firmly.

@nuleafjhawk UGH... : (

THIS REPORT IS NOT TRUE EVERYONE.....CALM DOWN

Joel-Hans Embiid
‏@jojo_embiid
@humblekid11 haven't made a decision yet

Trying to share a couple of photos, but can't seem to figure it out without imgur...

! ↗

@HighEliteMajor I'm one of the biggest realist there is on this board. I've tried to be objective. I try to call it like I see it. I always watch these guys in HS and then add the D1 effect with each recruit. We have to realize these guys are playing with average to below average HS talent. So, when they come into college, their play will meet some stiff competition or talent.

I do expect Alex to adjust really well. I see him struggling a bit like TRob, but will impact inside really well. I fought really hard not to fall for the hype around Wigs and was still just a tad disappointed. I'm not falling for media hype. I'm going on my own observations. I don't get into the Olajuwan or LeBron crap, it's stupid. I just watch the player and watch their basic skill sets. Turner will struggle too. None will come in and make an immediate impact. There is always the D1 adjustment period. CF, Green, White, Wigs, Mason, Lucas; They all have to go through that adjustment. It depends on how much pt they get and how much confidence they gain, and lastly how they adjust mentally with themselves.

I don't bite much at all my friend. I simply call it like I see it. Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong. But thanks for the reminder of reality.

THIS REPORT IS NOT TRUE EVERYONE.....CALM DOWN

Joel-Hans Embiid ‏@jojo_embiid @humblekid11 haven't made a decision yet

LET ME REPEAT, THIS IS NOT TRUE

humblekid11 is Cliff Alexander...FYI

@MoonwalkMafia

Wow, really? A lot of major media outlets are going to be eating crow if what you say is true.

I don't tweet, or twit or whatever, I assume that's a tweet from Joel?

@MoonwalkMafia I'm thinking this may be a writer's attempt at getting the most anticipated news of a top recruit. Like I said, I'll wait to hear it from Embiid. These writers will say anything for a story. At this point, I'm not too convinced it's completely true.

Possible and very likely, but just not completely verified.

@wissoxfan83 Ya, they are incorrect. Joel has said numerous times this morning that he hasn't made a decision yet. These reports are incorrect. Yahoo already retracted them and apologized for the mistake.

And yes, that's a tweet from Joel

@wissoxfan83 You can actually google Joel Embiid and read a little of his twitter. You just can't respond without an account.

Cliff Alexander‏@humblekid11·1h
Good luck to you big fella @jojo_embiid


Joel-Hans Embiid‏@jojo_embiid·1 hr
@humblekid11 haven't made a decision yet
 6:04 AM - 27 Mar 2014


@truehawk93 don't we-KU, usually hold a press conference for these announcements? I know Ben did?

@HighEliteMajor My first comment ever on a board about KU sports. I don't like for these kids to leave after one year anymore than you do. However, a couple observations: 1) When Joel came to KU, he was considered to be a "project." He was supposed to be a backup behind Tarik Black--not a OAD. He developed much faster than expected and put himself into position to be as high as a #1 NBA draft choice. 2) It could be that Bill Self has stated that it would be foolish for him to come back since he can't improve his draft stock much, if any.

I would be hard-pressed to make the decision to return to KU under those circumstances. I would imagine you would too.

@MoonwalkMafia

The story is still on Yahoo at 9:50

@wissoxfan83 My sincere apologies if I have posted mis information about Joel. Would not be surprised either if some beat writer saw his tweet to Cliff & thought he was getting the real scoop on a breaking event. Journalism can be a nasty, unscrupulous, & disreputable profession. I recall as a chaperon on a field trip, one of my 30 yr old son's elementary teachers telling me 20 yrs back that her major was is journalism but opted to be a teacher because of the rampant lack of ethics in the business. Again, if this turns out to be false, my apologies.

@wissoxfan83 I tweeted once, but I got something from my doctor to take care of it.

@globaljaybird Everyone here knows you're a stand-up guy and would not have intentionally posted something untrue.

If he stays or if he goes, it has no bearing on your credibility with us!

@nuleafjhawk Thanks for the vote of confidence (proverbial?)Oh hell I better get the resume out there quick !! On the lighter side, Oakville just posted on kusports.com to Turner, "The paint is yours...just make sure you know where Cliff is at all times !!" Damn he's a funny guy, I wish he's get on board with that schtick here.

@Wigs2 No, you are correct. When I've discussed OADs, I've typically separated them -- presumed OADs, and OADs. Meaning, Wiggins was a presumed OAD, and Embiid/Selden were not. It is an important distinction.

And to your point, how could coach Self have projected Embiid would be an OAD? Maybe he could, maybe he couldn't. But I do not criticize his decision in the least on Embiid. Awesome recruiting coup.

My point is that when a guy leaves after one year, it makes you consider the alternatives, and thus our recruiting philosophy. Yes, we want the best players. But is there a better approach?

On the Shepherd/Embiid deal, I had just posed the question earlier in the season: would you trade Embiid for Shepherd assuming we don't win the national title. I added the national title thing because of course, if we win a national title, every move was "perfect."

Now, if Embiid is gone, I would rather have the #50ish player with a year of experience. And a guy that would not dissuade an Alexander type player from coming.

@HighEliteMajor just an added note, I heard JoJo was not playing if we kept winning. Looking down the road???

@Crimsonorblue22 Can you (LOL) quote the source? I flubbed up & broke the water for ya if not.

@globaljaybird no, you are funny!

@globaljaybird I'm trying to find the positives! IF we get turner, maybe we're in better shape than w/ailing back Embiid???

http://www.kansascity.com/2014/03/27/4919090/yahoo-report-sources-say-kansas.html ↗

From self

I'm as ready for the NBA as Embiid is. I'm 6'1, 225#, HATE to lose.

I'm 55 and my back is strong.

Where do I sign?

@nuleafjhawk and..... You have a couple of tats!

@Crimsonorblue22 I doubt Wigs will hold a presser. Embiid might hold one or just twitter it.

@nuleafjhawk Now that's funny stuff...

 @wissoxfan83 I tweeted once, but I got something from my doctor to take care of it.

@truehawk93 If you twitter, does that make you a TWIT?

If you twitter, does that make you a TWIT? Or a twitterer?

@Crimsonorblue22 Lol - good memory!!

It's interesting that Embiid doesn't just announce like Selden and remove the speculation. But, Embiid hasn't done that. Short of making corrections, he isn't exactly denying that he's leaving either.

Help me if I'm wrong and this may sound silly, but Embiid and Wigs can talk to an agent? They just can't sign? Or are they violating their amateur status by simply "talking" to an agent?

You ncaa rule freaks need to enlighten us ignorant folk.

@HighEliteMajor Let me pose a hypothetical for you regarding Shepherd: instead of Shepherd for Embiid swap, would you rather trade Black for Shepherd and keep Embiid? So many people omit Black from the OAD discussion. Black wasn't a presumed OAD; he was a guaranteed OAD - one and done at KU. His 3 years of Memphis mean nothing to anybody here. Nobody here fondly remembers any moments of Black's first 3 years at Memphis. The talk about Black coming in was that he was going to be Perry Ellis' best friend because he was the bruiser that would allow Ellis to do his work inside. As a senior he was presumed to be more seasoned; further along in his understanding of the college game. Then he couldn't stay on the court for more than 3 minutes at a time before picking up two fouls. He later proved to be a valuable piece off the bench, but not exactly what we thought we were getting. If Embiid leaves, we have essentially played the last season with two OADs in our big man rotation. As a senior, Black had very little room to improve as he was closer to his ceiling coming in than Embiid or Shepherd.

So...keep Embiid with a chance he stays, and if he doesn't you have some of the ancillary benefits of the "recruiting coup" as you put it and his lofty draft stock (feathers in Self's cap to use in recruiting), or Black who had no chance to come back?

@icthawkfan316 no way I trade black, I think he cared more about ks than the others.

Black not only was muscle on the court, but a leader and a teacher off of it to his teammates.

@Crimsonorblue22 Why do you think that? Maybe it's true, maybe not. But why would that matter? HEM's question about Shepherd/Embiid is based on the notion of trying to win national championships. Given that this year didn't net us a national championship, why would you not trade Black for Shepherd? We know that bringing in Black didn't win us one, but a guy like Shepherd with years to develop might.

The answer is sentiment. Most of us like Black, just like I would assume most of us like Embiid. In essence my question (mainly posed to @HighEliteMajor since he brought up that he would trade Shepherd for Embiid) is would you keep Embiid or would you keep Black, assuming we could land Shepherd? I'd take Embiid all day. Not because of any personal feelings, but because of two reasons: 1) a freshman Embiid was better & more valuable than a senior Black, and 2) there was always a chance from the outset we might get more than one year out of Embiid.

@Crimsonorblue22 I would love to have 5 players for 4 yrs like Black. Imagine what you could do...WOW

@globaljaybird OMG..it's all your fault?...LOL. it's all over every sports website known to man, my friend. I read it on CBS, and rushed over here, and found your post. You beat any number of us to it.

@KUSTEVE Funny how ESPN hasn't broken the Embiid mess. They are probably breaking their necks to verify.

@truehawk93 To me guys with heart go a lot further than talent in college.

Look Arizona and Kentucky is the only team left with a phenom freshman. Kentucky is there due to multiple freshman, Arizona is there because he has guys with heart on the team to keep things going. Duke, Syracuse and KU are all at home with a bunch of talent.

Stanford played with heart and they over came a talented KU team.

When losing hurts so bad you drop to your knees like Black did against Stanford, it shows he had heart, a lot of those guys just went and shook hands and walked off the floor.

Maybe long term projects aren't bad but there is no guarantee how long they stay or if they pan out, maybe if he stayed four years he would have the heart the size of Black.

@icthawkfan316 With a heavy, heavy heart, I suppose I will be having to admit I was wrong..dead wrong about Embiid at some point. I became emotionally invested in the idea he would be back, and the longer the process takes, the more I think you'll end up being right, and he leaves. I'm not sad over being wrong- I'm sad because I think it would be a really bad decision for Joel. I know I'm biased, but I think the kid needs another year to be a kid, and find his way on and off the court before he goes pro.

@KUSTEVE Comepletely accidental find today.It was by force of habit to check boards' posts this am, but believe it or not, that was not the first item on the honeydo list today....or any day for that (her) matter. LOL

@HighEliteMajor Your philosophy that you'd rather have the "#50ish player" rather than a potential OAD is interesting. But if you are going to go after that player and exclude the OAD, you are starting to look at recruiting against Texas and Gonzaga rather than Kentucky and Arizona. You are also hoping for a 4 or 5 seed--or even lower--every year in the NCAA tournament, with the hope of making it to the top tier. Once you start dropping, the higher-rated prospects are going to start going elsewhere.

I was thrilled that Wiggins chose to come to KU. I think this season was much better than it would have been without him.

Also, many refer to the 2008 team as being special because it lacked an OAD. However, both Brandon Rush and Darrell Arthur were potential OADs. Is that the type player you don't want to recruit anymore?

@icthawkfan316 not impressed w/Shepard, I really feel JoJo didn't want to chance his back playing in tourney, 'cause of the NBA. Not saying I blame him.

Well, even though this rumor proved to be unfounded for the moment, it may well still come true. The question becomes where do we go from there? Myles Turner is the obvious answer, but Self has also been looking at Juco center Akolda Manyang

[Akolda Manyang](

He, like Turner, is more limited offensively than Embiid, but he's also a great rim protector and is pretty agile for his size. Again, I'm not making a direct comparison to Embiid, because he's no where near that level, but he could be a serviceable piece should Embiid split and Turner miss.

@konkeyDong that was impressive! Thanks!

@HighElite Major

Now, if Embiid is gone, I would rather have the #50ish player with a year of experience. And a guy that would not dissuade an Alexander type player from coming.

One moment, Bill coaches to win every single game. He never once has coached for next year. They break the huddle 1, 2, 3, Big 12 Champs! or 1, 2, 3, National Champs1! It's never 1, 2, 3, wait 'til next year! (I think that is an actual KSU chant) In trying to win every game Bill knew he had 5 spots to fill. Two players already in the program and go get the rest. This is a recipe for disaster, but Self churned out another Big 12 championship.

Bill did this on the shoulders of freshman greatness. Without Wiggins or Embiid (or OAD Black) KU looses at least 15 games. Figure 5 points less production out of the Wiggins spot and 4-5 points more scored by the opposition due to no Embiid.

Now to your question: No. I wouldn't like 12 Andrew Whites/Naadir Tharpes on this team. I feel that putting the best talent on the floor is what wins National Championships. Wiggins and Embiid certainly give you a much better shot at winning with them than without.

The team in 2007-08 (yeah that team) won it all following two number one recruiting classes. So big talent is what big Bill wants. Talent overload with veteran leadership is the easy road to national titles.

As if an easy road to national titles exists. ;)

@dylans I'm gonna respectfully disagree with your statement about "putting the best talent on the floor is what wins National Championships."

I believe that having experienced talent wins them.

It will be interesting to see in a couple of weeks who is holding up that trophy and if their starting lineup is heavy with FR/SO or JR/SR talent.

@nuleafjhawk I said with veteran leadership (like Carmello's 'Cuse team). And there really is no true recipe to National titles or Wooden's book would be way more expensive.

My question to anyone is this: If there had never been a requirement that a player attend college before entering the NBA, do you really think Wilt would have come to KU? What about Danny Manning? Would you recruit either of those two players with the current OAD rule in effect? Whether they had ever played in an NCAA championship or not, those two names would have had a positive effect on KU recruiting for years to come.

@dylans That's why I sucked in school. I only read what I want to see!

@nuleafjhawk Wilt almost won an NCAA championship in his first year. Lew Alcindor and 3 other sophomores won a championship their first year. Carmelo Anthony led his team to the championship his first year. Kentucky's first-year players won the championship in 2012. Michigan was one timeout away from a championship with first-year players.

For two consecutive years, it would have been hard to beat being a Butler fan. After a few years, you don't hear so much about Butler anymore.

@Wigs2 I think Danny would choose school. I always want to recruit these best. I guess I'm always hoping for another Danny, love the name on the jersey more than the NBA. His dad was a big influence on his decision too, not very many parents like that either. Wasn't there a coach who couldn't coach because he didn't have his degree?

Here is this year's T. Black. Jayhawk slant says he added KU to the mix to transfer.
http://www.owlsports.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=6578 ↗

http://www2.kusports.com/news/2014/mar/27/sources-tell-yahoo-sports-joel-embiid-leaving-cent/ ↗

I always want to recruit these best.

@Crimsonorblue22 I'm getting to the point where I don't want to recruit the best talent. Leave the top 10-15 alone and develop 16-100. The egocentric, me first mentality of the prima donna age of the freshman has me tiring of the game. More than anything, I get satisfaction out of witnessing (or participating) in the development of people. If I wanted to be a fan of basketball that has the 'best of the best' then I would just watch the crap product the NBA is selling. Let College basketball alone, but it is quickly becoming the NBA. Year after year, I enjoy the season less. I miss watching kids grow en lieu of the publicity ridden media frenzied appetite we have for find the "next" big thing.

@Blown I agree w/you, as long as we consistently win! I'd like to get guys like Embiid that decide to stay too!

@Crimsonorblue22 Yep, agreed. I believe we can win at a high level with 3-4 year players. This year more than any, imho, has shown the importance of experience in the NCAA tourney also.

@Blown Let's assume Bill Self decides this summer to go after a #50 instead of #1-5 since he can't have the premier player for more than one year. Word will get out that Self prefers the lower-rated player. In 2014 or 2015, the NBA decides to change the rule to make it two-and-done (or three-and-done). Self is going to have a difficult--if not impossible--task of convincing the best talent that it would be to the recruit's advantage to come to Kansas. It won't be long before #50 is a crown jewel for KU. Then we would be happy that we beat out a Mizzou for an NCAA tournament berth.

@Wigs2 Every title at Kansas has been won by 2-4 year players.

P.S. This is KANSAS. We will ALWAYS have our foot in the door on 90% of high level recruits.

@truehawk93 In proper grammar, the past tense would be you are a TWAT, right?

@Blown As I stated before, both Rush and Arthur were potential--and maybe presumed--OADs. I believe Manning would have been if the rule had been effect at that time. Chamberlain certainly would have been. If you start recruiting lesser talent, there will be no end to the dropoff. The KANSAS name doesn't mean nearly as much to these kids as you think it does. UCLA was for years the premier destination for a college basketball player. Do you still think they want to go there?

Remember, my question on Shepherd vs. Embiid is in hindsight. Embiid was not a presumed OAD. So now, as we sit here today, would you have rather had Embiid for this past season only, no national title, or Shepherd for this past season and into the future? I just think that it's an interesting thought process. It lets you know where you stand on OADs.

My line on judging is if we win the national title. Otherwise, the better decision is nearly always long term.

With Wiggins, for example now, are we better off having had him. Or, given that we didn't win that national title, got bounced in the 2nd round (or 3rd round .. whatever the hell it is .. first weekend), would KU have been better off playing Greene and/or White all season at the 3? Thus having one or both more ready and prepared next season? Or did having Wiggins bring something intrinsic? I've touched on this before a few times.

I do think we win the Big 12 without Wiggins, if Embiid was healthy all season. But he wasn't. So we might have lost the Big 12. That doesn't cause me to lose sleep mainly because of those other 9 shiny rings.

But this is the presumed OAD question. At what cost vs. the what benefit.

Now, we had Wiggins, and we have nothing. And we head into next season with the three spot either occupied by a guy who didn't get a ton of experience (Greene) or a freshman who will need to learn (again) -- Oubre.

@JRyman - Excellent post

Imagine how Black felt answering questions all week about how he was going to make up for the loss of Joel. Black played like an absolute champion and wore his heart on his sleeve during the Stanford game. He tried as hard as he could to take us to Memphis and when we couldn't hang on, he was devastated. I could barely watch the video of him being interviewed after.

I am excited for the future because we have guys that are already showing Heart. Frankamp is one of those; Selden has shown his heart and passion; I believe that even Greene shows the fire and the heart to want to take this team to new heights. I believe Tharpe tries is absolute hardest, he looked heart broken after the loss as well. I hope Perry finds his or if he already has it, I want him to show it.

I obviously wish Wiggins and Embiid would stay one more year but I wish Black could as well.

Heart is why T-Rob will always be one of my favorite players.

@dtdjayhawk Ok, I was with you until you said "Tharpe tries his absolute hardest ..." I have never seen a player under Self that I questioned his heart, desire, and effort more than Tharpe. Is my conclusion wrong there?

@wrwlumpy 2010-11: Red-shirted season due to a back ?

@Wigs2 I'm not going to say your theory is wrong, because we have no way to prove it. But I think you are making a big leap and projecting "what would happen." My sentiments are solely based on what IS happening. You are stuck on the top 15 players being full of Glory because that is what the media has sold you.

Also--you said "In 2014 or 2015, the NBA decides to change the rule to make it two-and-done (or three-and-done). Self is going to have a difficult--if not impossible--task of convincing the best talent that it would be to the recruit's advantage to come to Kansas."

If the NBA does change the rule, there is going to be a natural decline in Self bringing in OAD for the simple fact that their current players would be staying 2-3 years as you suggested.

Do you think we get Wiggs if McLemore has to stay 2-3 years? Do we get Oubre if Wiggs has to stay 2-3 years? The answer is no. So regardless, we will see a decrease in OAD's signed at schools. Kentucky isn't going to keep reeling in the #1 class if the incoming freshmen KNOW they have little to no shot at seeing the court until they are in year two or three.

@HighEliteMajor Unless you know what Shepherd would have done in the KU system, it's impossible to say. If Shepherd had come to KU and progressed into one of the top 3 draft choices, he probably would have left as well. Then would you have been wishing for Embiid? Unless you know how Shepherd would have done and whether he would have opted to stay at KU after a sensational season, your question doesn't have an answer.

@Wigs2 Wilt was a freak of nature. There will never be another Wilt.

Alcindor's team - sophomore's. Sophomore's who had already practiced with the team for one full year before their sophomore seasons. Close to 50 years ago. When if you had a Lew Alcindor - it didn't make any difference who else you had on your team, you were going to win.

I'll take very good Jr's and Sr's any day over uber talented freshmen.

@Wigs2 Well what's the point then. I don't know if the world's going to end tomorrow.

Ok, assume we got Shepherd and he progressed just like our other 50ish post guys, Markieff and TRob, and left after three years vs. Embiid's one year.

You have to make a few assumptions in recruiting in general terms. If a guy is saying he's likely and OAD, you have to recruit assuming that and vice versa.

@Wigs2 what past KU players do you think played for the jersey? 1988 team, Sherron, Cole, TRob, EJ, TT, Kevin, the ks kids, ......and????

@HighEliteMajor I just think that there are so many variables that your question can't be answered. Would Shepherd have enjoyed his freshman year at KU? Would he have liked Self and/or his teammates? Would he have decided to transfer after his freshman year because he didn't think he would ever get enough playing time? Would he have liked Lawrence? What would he have thought about being in this area during this brutal winter? Maybe everything would have worked out perfectly but you never know.

As I said earlier, I like the 4-year player too. I liked the way it was 50-60 years ago. It's hard to get attached to a player when he stays for only one year. I just think as the rule is now, it is just impractical to expect a top recruit to stay for more than one year. But you still have to go after them or your whole program will decline.

@Wigs2 agree, probably if Shepard came here, I'd like to think he would be a lot better than he is now.

@Wigs2 would the world end tomorrow? Again what's the point if you "what if" it to death?

It's a general concept where you make general assumptions to arrive at a philosophy and approach. It's like recruiting a point guard. If you want a tall, athletic guy that is good on defense. You recruit guys that mold and assume that it will translate to what you want in college. They might flame out.

And no one's saying 50-60 years ago. I'm talking recruiting guys that you would assume would be 3-4 year guys.

@wissoxfan83 I'm not going to believe ANYTHING until it comes directly from Joel and Coach.

HEM, I think a coach either has to assume that all recruits are going to be 3-4 year guys or that they are going to all be OADs. If Wiggins would have had a disappointing season and he had fallen considerably in the draft, he would have been playing next year at Kansas. Brandon Rush was considered a OAD by many people. It didn't work out. He would certainly have been done after his sophomore season if he had not been injured during NBA draft tryouts. Contrary to what many seem to think, Rush didn't come back because of the name across the front of his jersey. I think the coach just drafts the player who he feels will best fit into his system and lets the chips fall where they may. Otherwise, he will "what if?" himself to death.

The last time KU won a national championship was 2008. The three best players on that team were Mario Chalmers (12th ranked recruit), Brandon Rush (13th ranked recruit), and Darrell Arthur (16th ranked recruit). All three of those players went on to play in the NBA. Russell Robinson was the 27th ranked recruit and Sasha Kaun was 34th.

The closest KU came to winning before that was 2002 and 2003. Both of those teams had highly rated recruits with NBA talent (Hinrich, Gooden, Collison). The 2002 team lost to a Maryland team with Steve Blake, Chris Wilcox, and Juan Dixon. The 2003 team lost to a team with a one-and-done player, Carmelo Anthony. The 1997 team that was good enough to win the national championship had Paul Pierce. They lost to an Arizona team that had Mike Bibby and Jason Terry. That Arizona team went on to win the national championship.

This season, the biggest problem for KU was their junior point guard. Tharpe was the 92nd ranked recruit when he committed to Kansas. Had Embiid been healthy against Stanford I think Kansas would have won. But he wasn't and they lost. Injuries happen.

That doesn't mean KU should stop recruiting the best players possible. Wiggins wasn't the problem this season, neither was Embiid. In fact, if it weren't for those 2 players I'm not sure KU would have won a 10th straight Big 12 title. With more consistent point guard play and a healthy Embiid, Kansas would probably still be in the tournament, maybe even the favorite. Keep recruiting 1-2 year players and hope they stay a few years because Kansas isn't going to win national championships with just 50th ranked recruits. Sure, you can have a few of those players, Frankamp and Greene were ranked 47th and 48th, Darnell Jackson was 55th on the 2008 team, but you need really good players to win national championships.

@dtdjayhawk Ok, I was with you until you said "Tharpe tries his absolute hardest ..." I have never seen a player under Self that I questioned his heart, desire, and effort more than Tharpe. Is my conclusion wrong there?

Not sure you are completely wrong, but he has shown his heart, when he gets benched, he doesn't sit an cry to the nearest reporter, he doesn't make excuses for his play. He shows great character by going back out there time and time again trying.

I do not believe he goes out there looking to fail or to just go through the motions. Therefore by reasonable deductions he is trying.

I've been operating under the assumption that Embiid would be gone since mid January. He progressed much faster than anyone anticipated.

I doubt that Coach Self really regrets having Embiid here, and I certainly don't think he would have preferred a lower ranked prospect than Embiid. Embiid provided KU, in his one year, with a real chance to go the distance. Shepherd wouldn't have provided that this year, and may not ever turn out to be that type of "put you over the top" player. Would KU be better off to have a player that probably will never be as good as Perry Ellis is now?

@KirkIsMyHinrich makes a great point about KU, but I would take it even a step further. When is the last time KU landed a highly ranked PG that actually stayed at PG in college?

Give up? Try the Class of 2006 - Sherron Collins. Since then, the only guys to stay at the point were Tyshawn Taylor (77) and Naadir Tharpe (92). Tyrel Reed, Josh Selby and Elijah Johnson all moved off the ball.

You know who this team really may have missed, without even realizing it? Anrio Adams. Wouldn't it have been nice to be able to slip a combo guard into the rotation alongside Selden and Wiggins? But that's a moot point.

Self needs to find himself a true PG that is legitimately a high ranked player. Not a developmental case. A legit, can play from day one PG. As we have seen, a lower ranked player can become a big time player like Tyshawn, or never quite develop to our hopes like Naadir.

That said, Tharpe still has one more year, but as a player that is getting towards the end of his career, I have trouble seeing him becoming a significantly different player at this point.

@wissoxfan83 Man, all of this is speculation and theory. All of it. If the NBA does extend the minimum age and require 2 years of college, then how would it affect KU getting the top players? The OAD type players wouldn't exist anymore. They would be two and done, or three and done. Its a moot point if the age limit is extended. I mean would we have been a better team with Ben Mac this year instead of Wigs? I'm leaning yes just based on experience. Both players were two of KU's best freshmen in this last decade. Both have different strengths and weaknesses. Ben would have had more experience to lead this year, which could have lead us further in the tournaments. (Speculation)
But, to think that KU will lose out on one and done type players, I don't think that's accurate. I think the recruiting and landing of those players will just cycle differently.

@wissoxfan83 Here is another theory. What if Joel does not care how much money he makes in the NBA, only that he improves as a player and matures in the social world. For example, learning to drive. What if he decides to come back to KU, work on his game and get stronger, better, faster and then bounce to the NBA next year? And, say he tweaks his back again next season at KU and his stock drops a little bit, He is still going to make more money in one year than 99% of people on earth will see in a life time. I just don't see money being a huge influence on Joel. He did not come from that type of instant gratification culture that most kids here do. I could be wrong and Joel will declare tomorrow or the next day, but what if? What if?

@Lulufulu85 I think going now is a good business decision. That doesn't mean he is driven by money. He would be going with the percentages by taking the guaranteed money now.

@konkeyDong Me likey. He looks like a complete beast.

I'm pouting tonight. I refuse to watch Stanford play. Damn them. I hate them... I hate them...

@KUSTEVE

Dayton is taking it to Stanford and they are ahead by 10 point withe 6 minutes left in the first half...

@JayHawkFanToo fouls hurting Stanford this time. What a difference JoJo would have made!

@JayHawkFanToo Yeah.. If Dayton wins this game at the current rate, it's going to make us look like crap.

Last year, I took some solace in the fact that it took a miraculous comeback by Michigan to beat us... and then they went all the way to the finals.

Losing in the round of 32 to a team that loses in the next round is not so comforting. Especially when you consider we had possibly our best recruiting class ever and the most celebrated freshman in 10 years.

@bskeet uggg, you are right! This stinks, along w/Embiid rumors, not a great day to be a jhawk! Shout out to track team! Their day is going well!

@bskeet Let's face it, Bill took the day off vs Stanford.

@bskeet From what I've seen of the game we can be thankful that we didn't beat Stanford. Dayton looks like they would have beat us by 30. Or more.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24502505/kansas-star-joel-embiid-to-enter-2014-nba-draft-after-one-season ↗

@bskeet

Dayton is my undergraduate Alma Mater, so obviously I am rooting for them. Since KU did not advance, the Flyers are my consolation.

@Crimsonorblue22 This is just a reboot of what Yahoo sports news said 14 hours ago. Until JOEL SAYS he is going, I wouldn't believe a word said in the mass media. Wait until we see him and Coach Self at a press conference giving the word that he is bouncing for the League or coming back.

@nuleafjhawk the transitive law does not apply to sports.
My math teacher-hall of fame coach taught us that in the 70's. Which is also why you can't guarantee beating the same team twice in a season. Shooting % from the trey or otherwise mean more. Just because Stanford beat us doesn't mean a team that beats them on a different night could beat KU most nights.

@JayHawkFanToo You may have a very happy consolation tonight!

@Lulufulu85 yeah, but I'm not optimist!

@JayHawkFanToo at least someone is happy!!!!

@KUSTEVE Man, why would you "hate" Stanford? Or Michigan or VCU? Our fail reasons lie within our own team--I mean you watched these inexperienced (& "soft") Jayhawks struggle all season, didnt you, like the rest of us did? PG play-by-committee even into March Madness? Not a recipe for success. Embiid's injury is a huge factor in this team's options on the offensive and defensive ends. We got our problems exposed, despite Self's best efforts.

And: we are a royalty program. How about graciously giving credit to the opponent, who simply outplayed us, and had a good gameplan on our frosh Wiggins? Self will bring us back stronger, better next year, as all this youth now has experience, and has tasted a big fat "L". And Cliff Alexander is NOT soft. Nice addition he will be, even if its mostly in practice. Energy-players have a way of spilling over to other guys.

Little gained by alums/fans being bitter. Dont we get to Dance every year? We knew this team's issues, no surprise. Let the hindsight work for you, y'all saw this coming with this no-D, poor-PG squad, right? Then subtract Embiid due to injury. Just hated to send Tarik Black out like that.

@ HighEliteMajor: I saw Karviar Shepherd play. Wasnt that impressed. He looked like L'Bryant Nash. Isnt he 6'8, also? Embiid is a rare, rare specimen-with-talent (we know now...), but back in Oct he was thought to be a raw "project". No way anybody saw him up there with Wiggins or Parker on the draft charts.

But I do agree about the 10th-50th ranked recruits (not leaving after year 1) being the BEST for our system. If one wants to get more specific: how about recruits 10-30? If KU turns into OAD factory like KY, we NEVER actually develop a true Bill Self product on the basketball court, just like this year--not a finished product. Very shaky against zone-D, while the experienced 08Champs ate zones for appetizers, with a lob dunk to chase it down with. I want that execution out of a Self-coached team. These guys have work to do.

And bring 2 cushions for the bench so "softness" (Ellis + Tharpe) can sit in comfort next to an assistant coach, since Self will be too redfaced.

@JayHawkFanToo they are a scrappy team, like their D!

I can't believe what I'm reading here. You guys are hypocrites. Joel Embiid might be leaving and now suddenly he is the bad guy. And some of you came out saying he didn't bring anything to KU. What a group of fair weather fans. Make me sick!

@Wishawk Hey! I didn't say anything negative about Embiid! I am a huge fan!

For the record, I'm probably the only idiot that still holds a shred of hope that both Embiid and Wiggins will return for another year!

@HighEliteMajor - I had to go back and reflect on the season a little bit.

You may be right...

Maybe Tharpe's athletic limitations have a negative impact on his desire and effort. He was saying all the right things and he seemed to care but he just isn't the guy we need in the driver's seat. Tharpe does seem to get frustrated/discouraged too easily.

I don't question Perry's effort but would you question his heart and/or desire?

@dtdjayhawk I would question Perry's toughness!

@JRyman - just for clarification that quote you copied here was HEM's response to my original post.

@bskeet My friend, I wish him come back, but I wish him the best whatever he chooses. The kid doesn't owe anyone, but himself and his family. I'm a huge fan of Embiid and thought he played hard and played himself into stardom. No doubt he had a lot of natural talent, but there is also little doubt that his hard work put him in this position. I will miss him if he leaves.

@JayhawkRock78 Lol - I don't know about transitive laws and all that, but I did watch Dayton rebound, run, pass, shoot and attack the basket.

I respect you and your math teacher hall of fame coach, but I'll stick with Dayton kicking our fannies had we played them last night!

@Crimsonorblue22 Really?

Wait - are you talking physical or mental toughness? I think the guy goes all out mentally - I want him on the court, I NEED him on that court.....

He could add a little more beef to his frame, but I think he is very determined and gives it his all.

@nuleafjhawk physical toughness!

@nuleafjhawk
Well Dayton sure did "bring it" again last night. Maybe I should have qualified my statement like this. If A>B and B>C, then A>C, However in sports, that does not apply
-it depends on who shows up any given day.

@bskeet @CrimsonorBlue22

Yes, a very happy consolation. In no way compensates for KU early exist but very happy for them..and me.

Here's the thing - if freshmen play at an extremely high level, they will likely leave.

For example, look at Tyler Ennis. He was considered either the 4th or 5th best PG in his class, roughly ranked 20th overall. He is declaring for the draft. If you had asked just about anybody last summer whether Tyler Ennis would be a one and done, I think almost everyone would have said no. Of the three guards ranked ahead of Ennis, it's likely that both Rysheed Jordan (St. John's) and Kasey Hill (Florida) return to school. Jordan had a rough season both in production and from an emotional standpoint (for more on that, read here ↗. Kasey Hill has sat behind Scottie Wilbekin. Ennis played and flourished right away. As a result, he's heading to the NBA. Hill and Jordan will be staying in school most likely.

I would say that, as far as OADs are concerned, anyone that is ranked in the top 30 probably has the talent to be a OAD if everything comes together. Had Selden played as well as someone like Ennis played this year, it's likely 1) KU would still be playing and 2) he would not be back in Lawrence.

Do we want to avoid players like Selden, or guys like Ennis just because we know that if they play well, they will probably leave early? If so, we are taking our recruiting down from the elite power level to something less. And of course, guys like that may not be ready to contribute as freshmen. Brannen Greene was in that range. Would he have been ready to step in and play 20+ minutes a game this year?

That's the thing with potential OADs. They are more talented than the other recruits, so the best case scenario is Carmelo Anthony, while the worst case scenario is them returning for a second year after an underwhelming freshman campaign.

@Crimsonorblue22

Dayton is a well disciplined team an much like Wichita, they will not beat itself. It started the season strong, went through a rough patch with lots of injuries but finished the season strong.

In many ways, Dayton is a smaller version of KU. A basketball first school with a strong and basketball savvy fan base, a nice tradition and a well known Arena that absolutely rocks during games. Obviously they cannot compete with programs like KU for the top players, but looks like they have gotten the most form the ones they have.

The previous two coaches they had Oliver Purnell (9 years) and Brian Gregory (8 years) had good success and moved to bigger programs, Purnell to Clemson and Gregory to Georgia Tech. Hopefully Archie Miller will stay at least that long.

@justanotherfan I know it sounds stupid for some of us to say that we don't want to recruit OAD's. It sounds stupid to me. But I don't.

Here's why.

One of the (many) things I love about Kansas Basketball is the tradition. The stories. The history. I want players here that are into that as well. I want them to soak up Allen Fieldhouse. And Lawrence, Ks. Even though I don't live in Lawrence, I consider myself to be one of " US ". I live and breathe Kansas basketball first, but I also love football.

I don't just want players who are here because they know we are a high profile school that is going to get them a lot of press. I'm not talking specifically about AW now, just the OAD personality in general.

I don't see a OAD ever leading us to a National Championship. Look at the type of teams that Self ALWAYS puts together. Calipari has a much greater chance of utilizing a OAD type to Kentucky's advantage because of the style of ball that they play. And he doesn't care about Kentucky's overall W/L record anyway. He's there for his own personal fame and fortune. So dumping 4-6 guys into the league every year is to his personal advantage.

Anyway, I know I'm swimming upstream, but if it were up to me, I'd seek diligently for kids that would be here 3-4 years. I still think very good experienced players trump freshmen ( as a team ) every time.

@justanotherfan

Hard to play ahead of a player like Wilbekin. Eniis absolutely bricked his last two shot against Dayton; he really should have passed but decided to win the game by himself; with that attitude he should do well in the NBA.

About the OADs, I would perhaps rephrase and say that every player ranked in the top 30 "thinks" he has the talent to play in the NBA after one year but most don't.

The average NBA career length is about 6 yeas, but this number is heavily biased by the number of players that last only one or two season. When you consider player that average 25 or more minutes per game the career length is about 11 years, So, the average NBA team with 15 player (only 12 active) roster, loses slightly over 1 player per year to end of career. With 30 teams in the NBA, only 30 to 45 new players will make it and stay in the NBA every year. Lately, with influx of foreign players, the number of college kids moving up is even smaller. Realistically, the odds of making it to the NBA outside of being a Lottery or first round pick, are very small.

@ralster I take it having a sense of humor isn't big on your list, Mr. Serious. As the movie " Stripes" says, "lighten up, Francis".

@nuleafjhawk your logic is inescapable. Team denotes chemistry. Teams with lesser pure talent win over teams with greater pure talent all the time. It is the stage at which that talent is refined, it's the cohesion of the unit, and it's the coaching.

A great, nearly perfect example is WSU vs. Kentucky. Nearly equally matched teams. One, laden with freshman five star dudes. The other, not so much.

@HighEliteMajor

Didn't Kentucky beat Wichita?

@JayHawkFanToo Didn't Kentucky get pasted by Bobby Morris in the NIT the previous year?

@nuleafjhawk

Hem said:

"Teams with lesser pure talent win over teams with greater pure talent all the time."

and used as an example the match up between Kentucky "laden with freshmen five start dudes" and Wichita with "not so much." However, and as I mentioned, the "freshmen five start dudes" actually won that game. I was referring to the specific match up he mentioned and not the overall performance of the "boy wonders" at UK.

By the way, KU got pasted by TCU...yes, that TCU last year; arguably the most embarrassing loss in recent memory if not in the program history..

@JayHawkFanToo lol - I lost track a long time ago. It's Friday, we're out of the tournament, I'm bored and sleepy at work and I shouldn't be responding to any of this stuff.

But I'm having fun. Sorry if I'm running my fingernails down the blackboard today.

@nuleafjhawk

No problem. I think we are all frustrated; me probably less since I still have Dayton to look forward.

@JayHawkFanToo I'll be rooting for them too. I have no ties whatsoever ( other than you! ), but I'm impressed with them. They hustle like crazy and all seem to have their heads on straight. I'm also intrigued with the whole coaching brothers scenario too.

I hope they hang in there!

@JayHawkFanToo

You're absolutely right that there's a limit to how many players stick in the NBA. But that number is limited by talent, not just pure numbers.

There are, right now, 360 NBA jobs. I would say pretty confidently that the 200 best basketball players in the world are all playing in the NBA right now. After the top 200, some foreign players decide to stay in their country and make more money, be a star, live closer to family, whatever. But if you are one of the best 200 or so basketball players, there is an NBA job for you - period. The other 160 spots cycle between guys that are probably anywhere from the 201st best player in the world to probably the 600th best player in the world, if there were a way to clearly rank the talents around the world.

In other words, in order to play in the NBA you have to be one of the 600 best basketball players on the planet. If you assume there are 200 million basketball players of adequate age to play in the NBA, that means you are basically talking about the top .000003% of basketball players. So yes, it is a small window.

But here's the thing. The guys that will have a shot at going to the NBA, ultimately, are going to be mostly the guys that were highly ranked in high school. Basketball is one of the few sports that is extremely predictable in terms of development. If, for example, you want to know who the best senior basketball player in your school district will be in four years, go ask for a list of the best 10 8th graders. The best player in four years will almost certainly be on that list. He may be ranked 1st. He may be ranked 10th. But his name will show up about 95% of the time.

This is why it's imperative that KU recruit the top players. Maybe they turn into OADs. Maybe they don't. But the top players are the ones that give you the best shot. You use Florida as an example. One of the guys critical to their success this year - 27th ranked 2010 recruit Patric Young. He took a bit longer to develop than his classmates, but he's a key cog now. If you skip him because you're afraid he's an OAD, you miss out. I bet Michigan State wouldn't want to be without Adreian Payne (#20). Stanford probably appreciated having Dwight Powell (#25). These guys weren't OADs, but they were in the range and, as seniors, they demonstrated that ability. Remember, Ennis was ranked in the 20s. If you don't want a possible OAD like Ennis, you have to skip a guy like Payne or Powell or Young.

Some of the best from the class of 2011 that were still in college this year would include Nick Johnson #18, who I know Arizona would miss and Dorian Finney-Smith (#31), who wound up at Florida and is pretty important to the Gators. DeAndre Daniels (#10) is probably thought of as a huge disappointment, but he averages 12 and 6 for UConn playing 30 minutes a game.

The top players that meet expectations end up in the NBA after a year or two. The ones that don't become, at the minimum, a rotation level player somewhere.

If we don't want top 25-30 talent, chances are we will never have quite enough talent to go all the way. That's not good enough for me.

@justanotherfan

I think we are in the same page. My point was that every single HS top 30 player "thinks" he is ready to be a OAD, but in reality very few are; most will have to stay in college longer and develop in order to get a shot.

@JayHawkFanToo

Absolutely agreed. My point wasn't to disagree, but to argue that once they demonstrate that they can produce, even a little bit, they are gone, whether that be after one year or four.

Your point on everyone thinking they are OAD is spot on. I don't know how many HS players that I have talked to that thought they were D1 material. Never mind that they weren't playing all that well, they were convinced that they were going to play D1. The truth really doesn't set in until they really try to go to that next level and see how big that talent gap really is.

@justanotherfan

A great example is Josh Selby. He is an incredibly gifted player but leaving early realty screwed up his potential career. Had he stayed at KU, he would developed into an elite PG and could have been what KU needed to win the title in 2012. With an extra year of experience and a title he would have easily been a lottery pick with a guaranteed contract. Instead he listened to the people that just wanted to sponge of off him, and even when he was the MVP of the NBA Summer League, he was unable to get a permanent contract and moved through several D-League teams, one Chinese team and I believe he is currently playing in Croatia. Oh, what could have been.

I don't place Xavier Henry in this category since he was a lottery pick and has had guaranteed money every year and now he has had a re-birth with the Lakers and is having perhaps his best season to date. Same with Julian Wright since he also had guaranteed lottery money and left at the right time and an extra year might have actually exposed his flaws.

The Josh Selby story should be told to very player at KU that is considering leaving early.

@JayHawkFanToo What you say is true. But nobody cares. Well, no players care. They just want someone to show them the money.

If Andrew Wiggins would have said, " I'm coming to Kansas and I'm staying 4 years. I"m going to enjoy my college experience, I'm going to learn how to actually play this game and I'm going to have fun and hopefully win a NC or two" - I'd be out in front of the Fieldhouse right now sculpting another statue to go beside Phog Allen. And Phog would have his arm around Andrew. Or possibly bowing down to him.

The Embiid-Shepherd has been debated time and again. My question for all is: Considering the way the season and the NCAA tournament have played out so far, would you have preferred likely OAD Andrew Harrison be signed by Kansas? Or would you have preferred that Bill Self and the rest of the coaches continue to invest in the development of Naadir Tharpe?

@HighEliteMajor No.
My logic is that with Joel, we had a chance to be special. Do I think we would have won the NC? Probably not, since the team overall did not develop as we had hoped.
Also, even without Shepherd we have a chance to win a NC in the next couple of years...depending on how things play out.

@Wigs2 Well I wouldn't have wanted Harrison, because despite his talent, he has a reputation as being selfish. It appears he was part of the problem with Kentucky playing "selfish" in Calipari's words earlier this season.
Now, I'll admit they look like they could now win a NC.
I think Harrison may have had problems here.....he is awfully good though.

No problem with not wanting Harrison to play here. I can't say that I wanted him here either. But you can replace his name with any of the other potential or presumed OADs. My logic is that it doesn't make sense to question logic of bringing in Embiid or Wiggins and at the same time be upset that Self continues to try to develop and use Tharpe.