I voted for Biden this morning. Pretty easy decision for me given NC doesn't love Bloomberg.
Given the polls that came out this morning, I think it's pretty likely Biden fights Bernie to a delegate draw. Biden will sweep the South (with the possible exception of Texas) and Bernie will run strong in Texas, California, and the northeast. Warren has the money for a long slog, but at some point she has to understand her campaign has entered the zombie stage. Yeah it's still going, but it's effectively dead.
I expect Bloomberg to pull a Steyer and crater. I highly doubt he'll win a single state and will probably fail to be viable in a majority.
The early vote is key. For example, over 800,000 ballots were cast before today just in North Carolina. There are millions already banked in California. The early vote won't be friendly to Biden, so he's going to have to run up the score on Election Day to really cut into Bernie's lead. I think he will considering ED voters tend to be older and better off financially than early voters. There's a good chance Amy is actually viable in Minnesota even after dropping out. Her internals had her way ahead before SC.
I think the key is the delegate math with both Bloomberg and Warren. Both are foils to Biden and Bernie, respectively. Warren has a chance at getting the majority of delegates from Massachusetts, which would deny Bernie a batch he needs to hit 1991. Bloomberg may deny Biden some CD delegates in Minnesota, Vermont, and Utah. If he hits viability in more states than I think, he'll peel off some statewide delegates from Biden. Same applies to Warren. If she's viable in a bunch of these states, it could deny Bernie absolute majority delegate hauls.
In short, I think the race becomes a long slog till Milwaukee. Next Tuesday looks fairly pro-Bernie, the 17th looks a lot better for Biden, the Acela primary in April looks better for Biden, May looks to lean Sanders. I'd be somewhat surprised at this point if someone hit 1991.
