@Texas-Hawk-10 said in Mitch:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
@drgnslayr said in Mitch:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
If we play Mitch 25 MPG at the 4 weāre so, so screwed. Heās a good shot blocker and effort guy but I really donāt know what else he gives us.
I think Mitch gives us a lot. He's a guy who will stop opposition scoring and will win us possessions. He will give us consistency. 50/50 balls. He helps our guys with team confidence. And he's a glue guy. He will also find ways to get his points. I'm sure he has focused on scoring in his year off. Teamed with Marcus and we will be one of the better defensive teams in the nation.
Sounds perfect for 10-15 MPG backing up Dave. Iām not trying to knock Mitch, heās just limited offensively and canāt defend on the perimeter. Good shot blocker, ok rebounder for his size. We become incredibly easy to defend if he and McCormack play together. Paint is clogged, Garrett canāt drive, and weāre left with 1 guy that can shoot (Bryce). Would make Dave and Doke lineups look like the Warriors from 5 years ago.
You say Mitch is going to play 10-15 mpg backing up McCormack. My question then would be where does KU's other senior post player fit into that picture then? Silvio sure isn't coming back to KU to ride the bench his senior year. And Mitch didn't redshirt to play the same number of minutes he could've played on a better team last season. I think you are underestimating Mitch and will be wrong on what Mitch will contribute next season and what position he will play.
Mitch isn't backing Dave up and he will play 20-25 mpg at the 4 because he is the best option at that spot. Keep underestimating him like people here have done his entire career. He's not going to be spending a lot of time down low on the post because that's not his game either. His PER for his career is 14.8 which higher than the other know options at that spot other than TGF who we don't know how well he'll actually do yet and what kind of adjustment period he'll go through. 14.8 is the same as Braun, but Braun probably backs up the 1-3 spots this as a universal sub like he did the last part of last season. Ochai Agbaji who spent a lot of time at the 4 in the 4 guard look had a PER of 13.1 last year and Tristan Enaruna had a PER of 9. Jalen Wilson was a -67 for his very limited minutes in his 2 games last year and still wouldn't have been very good even factoring the two exhibition games where he shot a combined 3-13 for 9 points in 40 minutes. Lightfoot is the best option at this point at the 4 spot.
Out of Lightfoot, Enaruna, and Wilson, Mitch is by far the best defender out of the 3, I'm going to reserve judgement on TGF because JuCo players can be very hit of miss at the high major D1 level. Does Mitch get blown by? Yes, but unlike the other options, Mitch adapted to that by becoming a very good backside shot blocker to compensate.
On offense, KU shouldn't look the same as last year because that 2 man game with Doke and Dotson/Garrett isn't going to be as effective. I'm sure we'll still see it at times, but that shouldn't be the primary offensive look this year, especially with Dave and Mitch together. You're worried about the lane being clogged because of what happened last year.
That happened because Doke couldn't make a shot outside of 5' last year so there was no reason to go with him beyond 5'.
The difference this season on offense will be that Dave is a capable mid-range shooter which means defenders have to go out with him when Dave is 15'-18' away from the basket and I'm betting the biggest thing Dave is working on offensively is extending his range to 3 point territory to hit that top of the key and baseline 3's. Mitch on offense isn't someone who needs the ball or will be spending a lot of time in the post area. He will be out on the perimeter doing what he does best on offense, setting picks and screens for the guards to drive or get open looks from 3. This is where most of his points will come from is of off the pick or screen and rolls where his man abandons him. If he gets back to what did as a sophomore hitting 35% from 3, that's exactly what KU needs from the 4 spot this year because that's not the position where scoring needs to come from this year because the 4 will be the weakest position for KU on both ends this season.
This is what I'm expecting Mitch's stat line to look like next season. 20-25 mpg, 5-7 PPG, 4-5 rpg, 1-2 apg, 2 bpg while shooting about 60% from the field, 35% from 3, and about 70% from the FT line.
His PER is exclusively playing the 5. He's never played the 4 at KU and just assuming he can come in and be effective at it is a reach. I don't see any evidence he can be a consistent threat from 3. He's take only 30 3's his entire career, not like we have any real body of work there. And if you believe FT% is a leading indicator of 3PT% (the analytics suggest @scricca1\/so-can-ncaa-free-throws-really-predict-nba-3-point-shooting-ability-21cee782859e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it is ā) then you're expecting a career 53% FT shooter to be consistently good from 3. I'm just not counting on a guy that's made 10 his entire career being a threat. I doubt he gets close to 70% on FT's. A near 20 point jump is A LOT.
I think our best lineup will be Garrett, Thompson, Braun, Ochai, McCormack. Garrett is going to be really good at PG, and obviously Braun and Bryce can shoot. Tyon will be a key reserve along with Harris. He's got the size to play the 4 (6'7, 7' wingspan) and can rebound.
I don't know exactly what we'll get from Silvio. I hope he can crack the rotation because he's very talented, just it hasn't clicked for him yet. Ideally he pushes McCormack at the 5, but I doubt it happens. I don't expect much from Wilson either. Probably needs at least another year. We'll see on Enaruna, he may have the highest ceiling on the teams and seems like a candidate for a big jump if we can have a decent offseason.
I'm worried about playing essentially 3 guys who aren't real threats from 3: Dave, Marcus (TBD), and Mitch at the same time. And it's not like Ochai lit it up last year either (33%). If everything has to be inside the 3 point line we'll be woefully inefficient even if Dave makes every midrange jumper.