🏀 KuBuckets Archive

@Kip_McSmithers Love the way they are pushing it up the floor and attacking.

We need the Selden from the last two games - not the one that is a turnover machine. He simply does not know how to adjust in the paint.

We are so friggin' weak at the rim

@BeddieKU23 They do turn the ball over - the question is whether we can force those TOs - would love to see some occasional pressure.

@wissoxfan83 @JayHawkFanToo Big East is the only one that's had more members until the most recent realignment. But, it's not just how many members are in the conference, but how many bids there are, and how the teams do. As noted above, last year we had the most bids, nothing withstanding fewer teams in the conference. But, 5 other conferences had as many or more wins and 6 had a better W-L %. 2 years ago, 7 conferences had more wins in the tournament, even though only two conferences received more bids. We are simply falling short. The question is why?

BTW - I'm not trying to demean our conference - I had all our teams going at least chalk in my bracket. My point is that the facts over the past decade suggest that other conferences have better results in March. If we can't face up to the reality, then its difficult to figure out how to change things for the better going forward. Maybe it's just cyclical - the conference had a really good run in '02-'03-'04.

@Hawk8086 Haven't checked recently for every past tourney, but last year we had the most teams in the tournament, but went just 6-7. 5 conferences match or exceeded our win total with fewer teams entered. And, 6 conferences had a better winning %. I really wish it was a better story in most other years, but I don't think it is the case.

@wissoxfan83 Taking it back that far does show the conference in a bit better light - if you just look at the last decade, KU is it - 2 FF, 1NC, 1 runner-up. No one else from the B12.

@Hawk8086 I would agree that ISU and Baylor should easily win a multiple game series against those teams. The problem is that it is a one shot deal - and, it's not just that we haven't had another conference team in the FF in more than a decade - it's that B12 teams all too often lose these kinds of games to lower seeded teams. It's not just this year. Last year, we sent 7 teams to the tournament and not one got past the sweet 16. Look at the conference records over the past several years. In a few of them, there were 5-6 other conferences that had more wins that the B12 did. 2008 was the only year that the B12 had the most wins of any conference - and KU accounted for 6 of the 12. There is too long a track record of underperformance - esp. relative to other conferences - to just chalk it up to "its a crapshoot. How come the B12 is mostly coming up craps when other aren't? Something else is going on. We have good coaches. My own view is it's a combination of not getting enough of the top talent (admittedly tougher to recruit in our conference) and also not scheduling enough really high level competition as a whole in the non-conference season.

@DanR I would respectfully disagree, although it pains me to do so, that the B12 is the best conference top to bottom - although I do believe it is the most balanced conference top to bottom. There are no patsies or easy wins during the season as there is with almost every other conference.

@drgnslayr The league has underperformed in March for more than a decade now - not since 2002-04 has the league sent someone other than KU to the final four. Second straight year in which the league has sent the most teams to the tournament (tied) and crapped out. Well, the Hawks and the little 3 can all win, we can talk again, but losing to #3 seeds on the first day is just embarrassing, esp. the way Baylor collapsed down the stretch. WVU could easily get beat in the first game and OSU is at best a pick'em. League "rep" really riding with KU and OU now.

Coming into the tournament, a lot of pundits were discussing whether the conference was overrated. Yes, we did have the top non-conference record and RPI, but as I had noted in an earlier post, that was primarily due to having avoided bad losses in the aggregate and getting a bunch of solid wins. The problem was the no B12 team in the non-conference had a top 10-15 kind of win - not one. KU's wins against Utah and Georgetown were about the best. No one else schedules the other big boys like Kansas does. Until that happens, I'm afraid we will continue to come up short in March - just playing "tough" against teams you see all the time and can easily game plan for isn't enough......

@HighEliteMajor Great post. Some additional thoughts re your pre-tourney thoughts:

1. Spot on analysis of the Cliff situation - no risk to KU - family is just running out the clock at this point.

2. No question Landon has improved and he is a solid contributor - but, as you note, as a back-up. While he is the most fundamentally solid of our 5s and gives it his all, he is just too limited physically to be a significant contributor going forward - he's not close to 6'10'', doesn't have long arms, has no verticality, isn't quick, and has really weak hands. Just not sure that his ceiling is much higher, but I trust he'll work his butt off trying to get better.

3. Team defense certainly improved in the latter part of the season, but until then it was statistically one of the worst of the Self era - still near the bottom. Last year was worse, due to poor defense of both Tharpe and Ellis. This year, Ellis has improved and either Mason or Graham are huge defensive upgrades over Tharpe. But, no rim protector like last year, effort waxes and wanes, and too many of our guys are just not fundamentally sound defensively, e.g., Greene and Traylor. The biggest problem has been our inability consistently to get stops in crunch time - and that stems in part from an inability to consistently stop penetration. All our guys routinely get beat off the dribble - we need to do a better job with help defense. And, occasionally switch to a zone both to deal with mismatches and just to switch things up.

4. Agree with @BeddieKU23 re Villanova. I'm on the East Coast and have seen them play a few times. Very solid, veteran, balanced team. Can beat anyone, including UK if they are hot, but they are too reliant not the 3 to win 6 games IMO. Should the have been a #1 - not sure about that. Went 16-2 in the BE, which does have several solid teams. However, they didn't play anyone of consequence in the non-cont (VCU? Michigan?). Maybe not a 1# seed resume, but definitely not a joke.

5. Great stat - appreciate your contributions on the FG% at the rim front.

6. Agree - enough with the excuses.

7. I also had much higher expectations for this team at the beginning of the year - FF if not NC. I certainly expected more out of Alexander and Oubre (with KO, I do think he is our best two way player, but is still improving and needs to be more consistent). I expected a lot more out of Selden - more like what we saw the past two games. I expected Hunter to have been a contributor from the get go and I expected more out of BG. Notwithstanding, we do when #11 against a very difficult schedule and are a #2 seed. Unfortunately, my expectations aren't high at this point. While I certainly think they are capable of getting to the Elite 8 - and I would love to see how they deal with UK the second time, i would not be shocked if we lost to NMSU and would probably be mildly surprised if we beat WSU (assuming they win).

8. Amen to that...

Lots of Duke haters out there and not without some reason. As to seeding, they actually had a resume that would warrant a #1 in a lot of years, just not this year. Didn't win conference or tourney, not in the top 4 of BPI or RPI, and clearly had the worst loss(es) of any of the putative #1 seeds (esp. a 16 pt loss at home to a team that didn't make the field).

What the committee undoubtedly used to rationalize the very favorable treatment is the fact that they probably have the single best or two best wins of the year - a win AT Wisconsin and a win AT UVA. Indeed, they do have several very good conference and non-conference wins on the road (also UNC, Louisville, and SJU).

Again, overall resume might warrant a #1 in most years, but not way they should have gotten it over Arizona (I don't like either team). And, no question that - on paper - they got the easiest path to the FF - plus on the opposite side of the bracket from UK.

@JayhawkRock78 So, Omaha will be the Thunder Dome?! Tina Turner singing the National Anthem - or RCJH?!

@KUSTEVE You are spot on as to what is - or isn't - happening. Unfortunately for Cliff, this probably hurts his draft prospects, which had eroded before this. He clearly needs another year or two, which he isnt going to have. May end up in D league or overseas. Sad.

@JayHawkFanToo The B12 got a lot of love from the committee - KU a 2, ISU, OU, and Baylor all got 3s, WVU a 5 and UT and OSU in, as well. Hopefully, all can live up to their seeds - and one or more exceed by getting to Elite 8s or FF. The others may have a better shot at that than the Hawks, esp. FF. And, yes, WSU got screwed - which means KU gets screwed if they end up meeting. Would sure look forward to that game though. Hope neither we nor they look past the first game.

@JayHawkFanToo Thanks for following up - appreciate the information.

@Bwag Good point - the Mayor countered the perimeter pressure by taking our guys off the dribble - Self didn't counter back with the zone look until after the lead was gone

@brooksmd Would tend to agree, but there is something about them. They only made 2-16 3 pointers - no way on earth I would have thought we would have lost the game, let alone lose a 17 point lead unless they were draining 3s.

Well - there it is - give up 47 points in a half isn't going to win many games - and they did it without 3s. Probably should have gone to the zone earlier. Until next week.

@BeddieKU23 No snark there, huh

Don't need a 3 - take it strong to the bucket

They've been killing us with ORs this half

@Bwag Boy those are some ugly looking "shots" - but hey, that's all we've got right now!

I said we needed to hold them to 40 - not gonna happen - even if we had, didn't think we might not score 20

14 points in 14 minutes...

I said we needed to hold them to less than 40 the second half and we were golden. They have 19 in 9 minutes - after 23 in 20 in the first half.

@KUSTEVE There we go - how many times have we seen this movie - other team ratchets it up, we are lackadaisacal, and, boom, lead gone.

Lazy - sloppy - we have to match their intensity

@Bwag Would make us much more dangerous if so - I've been as hard as him as anyone this year - still doesn't look pretty when he gets in the paint, but they are going in - which probably gives him more confidence on the Js

Holding ISU to 23 at half is damn impressive. Keep them under 40 in the 2nd half and we've got this.

@brooksmd And he should have

@BeddieKU23 Yes, but he can't chase Niang on the perimeter - would shoot 3s or blow by him

@BeddieKU23 Maybe - but you don't throw it to your big with 35 feet from the hoop

@BeddieKU23 Loving it now

@KUSTEVE And immediately makes an impact - would have him in whenever McKay is - not a threat to shoot from outside, so doesn't have to chase him

@KUSTEVE Let's not get cocky yet - after the final buzzer, yes!

Dumb Kelly

@cragarhawk He's bipolar - great one game, clueless the next

@wissoxfan83 Defense has been really good the last few games - now, if we could just address the other side of the court. 7 points in 8 minutes - against a team that is decidedly not known for their defense.

@BeddieKU23 Let's hope that works for us, too!

@Eric We need to take advantage and build a lead - because some of those WILL start falling...

@wissoxfan83 Not quite the Heidi bowl, but...

@sfbahawk Well, his name is attached - if he didn't, he probably has other (legal) problems as he has a subscription model

@JayHawkFanToo Um - I'm not suggesting you are making anything up - and I'm not in a position to compare and contrast. The only thing I know is that his efficiency ratings have been, and apologies for the repetition, HIGHLY correlated to actual season and tournament performance since 2002. That's it. If there is someone else out there that has demonstrated even better correlated or predictive results over a long time period, I'm just not aware of them - but, would welcome your pointing me in his or her direction. I'm not married to Pomeroy. ;)

@JayHawkFanToo I've seen the Massey composite - don't recall his being out of whack this year - has KU about the same as the composite last time I had seen it. I don't follow most others - the reason I follow Pomeroy is because, as I mentioned, his efficiency rankings, esp. defensive, have been HIGHLY correlated to season long success and tournament success each year over the past decade. That may well be true for others, as well - don't know that.

@HawksWin Well, they've really only been good the last two years. Had a #1 seed last year, but lost in the sweet sixteen by 2 to one of the experienced coaches @jaybate-1.0 notes can give you an edge - Izzo and MSU. Bennett has been getting better players, although not the top-ranked, and I expect UVA to be strong year in and year out from here. Probably won't ever get the best talent because of the way they play.

@JayHawkFanToo Don't get the trashing of Pomeroy. He doesn't "rank" teams - he just plugs data after every game into an algorithm. You may not like his formula, but I would encourage anyone to look at the tempo "rankings" over the past decade. It strikes me that offensive and defensive efficiency as calculated by him have been remarkably well correlated with the best teams during that period - both season long and tournament results. A couple of exceptions, but for the most part, defensive efficiency - and KU has been in the top ten almost every year (NOT last year, and just sneaked in this year due to the Baylor results) - have been highly indicative of the best teams, more so than offensive efficiency.

@JayHawkFanToo Agree with you - have also seen UVA play several times - extremely well-coached team - more talent than Bennett has had before, even if not OADs. And, although they lost 2 of last 3 (close games to Louisville and UNC), they've done so basically without their best player. And, the fact that they don't have a lot size upfront (just Tobey and Gill) makes their success the past two years all the more remarkable. They can struggle to score sometimes, but I really like the way the play defense.

@jaybate-1.0 I'm on the east coast and see some of Villanova's teams - I actually think they are a really solid team - very balanced - perhaps Wright's best - not just a bunch of guards chucking it up.
@BeddieKU23 If they win the BE, I agree that they will get a #1. But, to @jaybate-1.0 point, they have a lot of solid wins, but no really good ones. Their top RPI win is VCU!
@KUSTEVE Agree - would love to be the #2 in their region - don't think it's gonna happen

@HighEliteMajor There are seeding "rules" - in the recent past, geography has been given precedence over straight competitive balance, esp. in th 1-4 seeds. The theory is that hired seeded teams shouldn't have to travel as far - also benefit for fans. The committee strives for overall balance in the regions, but that has varied by a 5-6 seed total difference in some years. Has gotten more attention this year because UK is seen as a dominant #1 - and the view has been expressed that it would be "unfair" if the top #2 seed, whomever that is determined to be were stuck in their region - not unreasonable.

So, there has been a lot of talk amongst the talking heads about this. While the final #1s may be a bit fluid, it seems that the Hawks are locked in as a #2, albeit the lowest rated one - due primarily to the number of losses overall. Reason we would get a #2 over a ND or MD is overall strength of schedule.

Having said that, while I think it is still highly likely that we will end up as a #2 - and, if we do, probably in UK's region - it's possible that if we were to lose today, MD or ND could bump us down to the #3 line if they were to win their tourneys. Would be mildly surprised if that were to happen. Especially tricky for the committee to decide that with MD since they wouldn't be playing their final until tomorrow (assuming they beat MSU today).

I would note that Wisconsin is actually down 5 to Purdue at half, so anything is possible at this point....