@Hawk8086
" What happens if we run into someone with the back court to keep us out of the lane and we have an off night behind the arc? I know I’m sounding the fools gold alarm, but… Can someone give me some comfort here?"
There is no way anyone can guarantee we win out in March.
But... to answer your question and give you a bit of comfort.... If we can't score inside and our outside shot isn't falling (this will surely happen, probably more than once), then we still have an excellent chance of winning a "GRIND GAME." Let's not forget, these are actually the games Self likes.
Remember the end of last year? We did win quite a few of those games but we pretty much were in grind games often at the end of the year, while Self had to be convinced that pounding the ball inside was never going to improve.
Now it looks like all those grind games may pay us back with some really great karma because it gave us the experience to grind it out to victory! I'm sure we will have several of these games in B12 play this year, especially on the road.
Consider a few of our advantages....
First.... depth. That should help us in many ways. One... is we can play a deeper rotation so key players still have energy at the end of the game, giving us a slight advantage to win close games down the stretch.
Second... our depth is DIVERSE depth. We have players with their own unique skill sets. So maybe our starting lineup is ice cold from trey. Maybe BG comes in and shoots 6-6 from trey?
Third... we have EXPERIENCED depth. We also have some newbies, too, but we have plenty of experienced players, both starting and riding the pine that can produce, especially in the clutch on close games. This is big!
Fourth... we have SOLID defense. We aren't a "fool's gold" team because we can win games where we shoot poorly from trey.
Look... we are capable of losing to any D1 team on any given night. Same can be said of the rest of D1.
As good as we are, and as good as we may become... a bit of luck will do us wonders in March.
Having good luck means.... not losing key players to injury, especially during March Madness when it is hard to make adjustments quickly.
Having good luck means.... we stay hot enough with our shooting over our opponents.
Having good luck means.... our opponents never are hotter on FG% than us.
Of course, skill plays a big part in this. But sometimes it is just luck. Give me a basketball, blindfold me and set me at half court. Eventually I will make the shot. Sometimes shots just drop for players/teams, sometimes they don't. An inch here or there can mean the difference of blowing out another team, or having them blow out us.
I think we have some margin for error this year. That should help us, but no guarantees.
Compare us to other teams. Compare us to OU. They lose Buddy to injury and they are a .500 team. They lose any of their other starters and they are not a Top 10 team. Also consider foul trouble. Also consider having to win the final moments of a tough-fought game when everyone is exhausted.
OU has NO margin for error. I don't care what the stats say, their defense will have to buckle down big time to beat top teams. I like our chances mostly because defense is our calling card.