This article makes it pretty clear that in the next round of re-alignment KU and OU may be leaving their in-state rival behind. I don't see much interest for K-State from any of the major conferences, and the powers that be would be foolish to try to link KU and K-State together, lest the major conferences back away from the Kansas schools entirely.
justanotherfan
3643 posts
Some of that is the responsibility of the ball handler. You have to approach the screen at the right speed. Too fast and your screener doesn't get set. Too slow and the defense can react and align itself.
But if you hit it just right, everything falls into place. The current master of this is Chris Paul. He paces himself just right into the screen, even when the defender knows its coming. He is going just fast enough to lead you into the screen, but also threatening to go the other way at the same time. It's one of those beautiful details within a game that you can watch and see how the best in the world do it.
The transition began during the late 80's when defenders began getting more and more athletic. The Lakers and Celtics of the early and middle 1980's were just as physical as the late 80's and early 90's Pistons. The difference was that the Pistons were very athletic - Mahorn, Laimbeer and Salley were all very mobile for big men. Rodman was one of the first players that could guard any player 2-5. The secret to that Pistons defense was their athleticism.
When Jordan was confronted with that athleticism plus the physicality of that time, he was worn down. In the "Bad Boys" documentary, Jordan talks about how he was not ready, either physically or mentally, to compete against Detroit. Pippen talks about much the same thing. And these are two of the most athletic wing players of any era.
So what did Jordan and Pippen do? They hit the weight room to get stronger. Neither guy got all that much bigger - maybe 10 or 15 pounds total - but the difference when giving that added strength to superior athletes was immense.
In an attempt to keep up, more young players started hitting the weights in earnest. Basketball wasn't really a weight lifting sport to that point, but with the athleticism (i.e. explosiveness) increasing, the power game could not be left behind. In the early days, Dr. J was amazing because he did things that literally only a few other players could do. Now, you could probably fill an entire roster with that type of athlete. That means the raw athleticism isn't enough, it must be refined.
You still see lots of tall, skinny guys (Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett immediately come to mind), but you also see more guys that are powerfully built at every position - a guy like Russell Westbrook would have been something like what David Thompson was when he entered the League if he had come along in the 70's or 80's. How do you compete with that if you aren't an athletic freak? You have to get stronger so you can hold your own against Westbrook, who is actually a pretty lean guy for as powerful as he is.
As for the pick and roll, it came to prominence as more and more guys that could handle the ball began to emerge. Stockton and Malone ran that set for 15 years, but as more PGs with handle and scoring ability began to come into the ranks, it made sense to keep the ball in their hands. Watch any high school game now with a top notch perimeter recruit and you will see that guy handling the ball 80% of the time. Pick and roll makes sure your best perimeter player gets to make a decision on every play. If you have a good perimeter guy and a good inside player (a la Stockton and Malone) even better, because your best two guys will have the ball in their hands on virtually every play.
This was necessitated by the more athletic defenders as well. Average and below average offensive players simply can't compete against the better defenders, meaning they need help getting their shots. Most of the time, that means using your best player (or best two players) to draw the defense away from your lesser players to give them shots they can make. Look at how Golden State used Curry and his shooting to get open shots for everyone else on their roster. By keeping the ball in his hands they were able to exploit the holes in the defense, not only against Cleveland, but throughout the playoffs. Those other guys don't get those shots (and don't have that production) if Curry isn't drawing the defense with the pick and roll.
I'm not saying Cliff will stick in Portland, but I will say that he has as good a chance as any. He has clear physical talent. The other bonus of signing for training camp is that he will get opportunities. If not Portland, maybe somewhere else once cuts are made, injuries occur, etc.
Princeton uses back cuts to get to the rim. DDM uses the dribble. The spacing principles are roughly the same in that the post man does not post up in a traditional spot, instead working the high post or the extended post to clear the lane for cutters and drivers.
On the perimeter, the offenses both use a "fill" concept, where once a guy drives (or cuts) the other perimeter players fill in the empty spaces. If a cutter (or driver) does not get a layup, they cycle through and fill a weak side spot to repeat the process with a new player.
The way the ball moves is different (dribble vs. pass), but the offensive principles are the same.
The DDM is the turbo charged modern Princeton offense. The difference is that the Princeton set focuses on passing, while the DDM has charged that up by utilizing that spacing to open up driving lanes and forcing the help to come from awkward angles, opening up kick outs for open threes and dump offs to post guys for layups and dunks in the lane.
The DDM focuses on allowing the great one on one players available today to make plays with the ball in their hands. You can zone it and clog it up the same way you can zone the Princeton offense and take away the back cuts and other openings off the high post.
Still, the basic principles are the same. The difference is that you move the ball with the dribble in the DDM and with the pass in the Princeton.
Lebron is the best player in the world because he can fill in any blank at any time.
His greatness is in the diversity of his skills.
He can score from both inside and out, pass from both the perimeter and the post, rebound on either end and defend any position.
He's the only player in NBA history to average 27 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists for his career (He's actually almost 27/7/7, just 76 assists shy of that for his career). He's had 53 triple doubles.
He's been to the Finals now five years in a row and six times total.
By the time Lebron is done, there is a possibility that the sheer volume of his resume will be too great to ignore that he's the best player ever. Lebron is great because Lebron could play with any other historical great and still be an incredible player because he can do everything well.
If Lebron decided that he would shoot less and just facilitate the offense, he could turn into Magic Johnson tomorrow (19 points, 11 assists, 7 rebounds) by simply converting some of those shot attempts into passes (he's never had the luxury of being surrounded by enough scoring to do this, but he has averaged 7+ assists 7 times in his career).
He could become Michael Jordan by shooting more - (30 points, 5 assists, 6 rebounds) by shooting a bit more and passing less (he actually has had 3 seasons with those types of numbers in his career).
Name another great player that could just decide to morph into another great player, and could likely do so seemlessly? He could decide to just become an average offensive player and become a one man wrecking crew on defense a la vintage Ron Artest.
Lebron is average or above in literally every basketball category. He literally has zero actual weaknesses. He does some things better than others, but he is not below average at any basketball skill. That's just uncanny.
In general the better team should win, whether the game is close or not because they are the better team. But in a low scoring game, the lesser team has a better chance because they can increase their odds ever so slightly.
Think of it like a single dice roll. Let's say that the better team wins the possession on a roll of three or higher while the lesser team prevails on rolls of two or one. The lesser team has worse odds on every single roll. However, if you can limit the overall number of rolls, the odds become less important because the statistical probabilities don't have the opportunity to even out in the same way that the raw talent of the better team doesn't have a chance to take over in a lower scoring game.
If you only won on the low numbers, and you needed to get more good rolls than bad, your chances increase if there are only 15 total rolls vs if there are 75 because chances are those bad rolls will start showing up as you roll over and over again.
Stanford did this to KU, turning the game into a brutal slow game, and once KU fell behind, they could not come back.
To properly assess the trade, you're asking three questions.
First, how does this help us right now, because the long term is hard to pin down in sports?
Second, what do we have to give up that could otherwise help us right now?
Third, is there another way to get what we need without giving anything (or as much) up?
Now let's answer those questions.
Cleveland got Love, a top 15 player in the NBA. That helps them become much more offensively diverse because Love can score both in the post and on the perimeter, and, for all his shortcomings as an individual defender, he is one of the best rebounders in the league on both ends. He would certainly have helped in the Finals because unlike Tristan Thompson and Mozgov, Love is an actual low post scorer. He would have really made Golden State think about constantly playing small because he could have dominated inside against smaller defenders, and he is such a skilled passer that tons of open threes would have been there for the taking, not to mention the gravity he creates in the post. GS played the entire Finals guarding the post one on one with smaller guys. They don't do that if Love is on the floor. So you get one of the best 10 offensive players in the NBA, and an elite rebounder with defensive deficiencies. Pretty good.
So what are you giving up? I'm going to focus on Wiggins and Bennett here, even though there are other parts to the trade. Bennett had what most people consider to be the worst rookie season of a number one pick in at least 15 years. Kwame Brown was better. Bennett was out of shape, then ineffective. That's what Cleveland saw from Bennett. He wasn't hurt. He was just bad. The entire league saw that. There were a lot of people questioning whether Bennett could actually play in the NBA after that rookie season - not if he would become a good player - if he could stay in the league. That's HUGE** when evaluating trade value. Bennett was on a bullet train to Bust-ville. So his value was very limited.
Adding in Wiggins, the #1 pick that everyone agrees has tons of potential can get you a top 15 player. So now the question is "When will Wiggins become a top 20 NBA player?" As a rookie, certainly not, doubtful his second year, either. Best case scenario, Wiggins becomes a top 20 NBA player in his third season. Love is a top 15 player right now.
So Cleveland knows that Wiggins may be an MVP candidate in five years, and will likely be a potential all star in three years, but probably will be just a rotation level or starter level player the next two years. That matters, because Cleveland's championship window likely closes (or remains only slightly ajar) once Lebron passes 33. You get four shots with the James/Love/Irving group (including last season) with all four coming with those guys as potentially elite players. You only get 2 shots with a James/Wiggins/Irving combo all as elite players because Wiggins is not yet an elite NBA player.
Here are Wiggins' lines of Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals and Blocks, broken out by month for his rookie season, along with a comp for that line:
November - 12.3/3.8/1.0/1.1/0.5 (Kyle Korver without the 3s)
December - 14.6/4.1/1.8/0.9/0.6 (James Posey about 10 years ago, but with fewer steals)
January - 19.8/4.6/2.5/1.4/0.6 - Reggie Miller in the mid 90's, with more rebounds, but with fewer 3s, assists and a much lower shooting %.
February - 16.8/4.8/2.3/1.0/0.8 - Cedric Maxwell of the early 80's Celtics, but with fewer rebounds
March - 17.9/4.8/1.8/0.8/0.5 - Cedric Maxwell again
April - 23.3/6.0/4.0/1.0/0.9 - Young Ray Allen around 2000, 2001
Overall - 16.9/4.6/2.1/1.0/0.6 - Cedric Maxwell is close, but was always a better rebounder than Wiggins was last year. That season doesn't exactly scream all time great. Maxwell was exactly what Wiggins projected as last year - a solid starter on a title caliber team (which Maxwell was) but not a star by any means.
Could Cleveland have landed Love or his equivalent without giving up what they did? Absolutely not. There's just no way Minnesota does the deal (surrender top 15 player) for anything less than Wiggins and Bennett.
So there are the three answers. Wiggins will eventually be an outstanding player, but by the time he is that guy, Lebron will be 32 or 33 and Cleveland will be fading.
The key to this is that both of the guys in the corners have to be credible three point shooters, otherwise those defenders will sink into the middle and clog everything up. If Selden continues to shoot well, he has some gravity here that will hold his defender on him, giving Mason precious space to operate in. Running that when you are not surrounded by shooters is a turnover death trap because the whole defense collapses into the lane with zero options.
Frank should only jump if he is a projected lottery pick. His size will probably have him dropping once workouts start and some of the bigger guys go through workouts and look impressive. That doesn't mean that Frank won't be a factor, just that it is incredibly hard for a guy his size to really wow somebody in a solo workout unless he's showing incredible shooting, blazing speed or some other off the charts skill.
I think Frank is here for two more years unless he just goes nuts next season.
The three scariest games on that list are, in order from least to most:
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Maui Semi-Final - regardless of which side of the bracket you end up on, this will be a tough one. Have to find a way to keep everyone fresh and ready to go.
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Kentucky - they will be good and Cal will have them ready. By the time this game rolls around, both KU and UK will know what they have for the year, so both teams should be ready to go toe to toe.
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@ San Diego State - road games are always tough and when you play a good team from a middle high major, that challenge only increases. Fisher will have his squad ready and their style makes them a tough draw anywhere (recall they knocked us off in Lawrence a couple years ago). I am very concerned about this game.
I may criticize Perry Ellis for his on court performance from time to time, but everything I hear about him off the floor is top notch.
@BeddieKU23 and @globaljaybird
You both make good points. However, my major point is that Bragg may not even play the 4 in the NBA. He may play the 3. That's the big difference between Bragg and Ellis. Ellis would be in the NBA right now if he could play on the perimeter. However, because he's more of an undersized player, he (rightly) returned to college. Ellis is absolutely a 4.
Bragg has some perimeter skill and appears to be able to defend there if he focuses on it. It would be to his disadvantage at this point to try to tailor his game to the post because his NBA future is likely going to push him more and more to the perimeter. He should not be trying to bang with 4's and 5's. He should drag big guys out to the perimeter, face them up and beat them there, while posting smaller guys up.
When guarding bigger players, he should use his speed and quickness to deny them position and the basketball. If he's trying to play bully ball, he's doing it wrong. When guarding smaller guys, then by all means, use his size/ strength advantage.
Carlton Bragg should be making himself into a 3/4, not a 4/5. This is why I believe he may be able to become an OAD. Like I said, he's more likely a two year player, but we should not assume he will be back because he has enough skill to make a leap.
Selden is not a tweener. He is a failed 2 that has been moved to 3 because he wasn't a strong enough ball handler to play the 2. He can be a very good 3 because most college 3's are small enough for him to handle.
Mason is not a tweener. He's a scoring PG. He will just play off the ball some.
Devonte is not a tweener. He is a shooting PG that can play off the ball.
Perry is not a tweener. He is an undersized 4. We saw last year that Perry cannot move to the 3. He isn't a 3 or a 4. He's a stretch 4 that is undersized.
Diallo is not a tweener. He is a NBA 4 that will probably be a college 5.
The only real tweeners on the team are Svi, who is a 2/3 and Vick, who I can't figure out how to label (probably 2/3 as well). JamTray is just undersized (can't play the perimeter). Greene is a 3 (has the height, not a ball handler to play the 2). The only reason that so much of this opened up is because Selden is one of our more talented players, but he had to move positions to be more effective, which meant that someone either had to play out of position, or we would always have to sit 2 of our best 6 players, which is not a good strategy.
Carlton Bragg could be an OAD. What makes him different from previous guys ranked in the same range, as @Texas-Hawk-10 rightly observes?
Well lets run down the list.
- Skillset
Carlton Bragg is a 6-9, athletic, face up big man. He could reasonably play either the 3 or the 4 at the next level with his combination of size, strength and athleticism. He is bigger than Marcus Morris was coming out of high school, as well as being more athletic, though I think Morris was slightly more refined as a shooter. Bragg is easily more athletic. He's probably only surpassed in the athleticism department by TRob (and that's a close call) but he is more skilled than TRob was at the same point. Cole and Withey were both projects that needed to develop strength as they were not strong enough to play the 5 at the next level when they arrived in college. Bragg can probably handle the 3 or 4 because of his ball handling and shooting ability, so that won't prevent him from making the leap. His athleticism should allow him to defend guys on the perimeter as well.
- Competition.
When Cole Aldrich arrived on campus as a freshman he was sitting behind 3 guys that would be NBA draft picks in less than 12 months. There was almost no way he was breaking through that group unless he was an absolute superstar on day one.
When Jeff Withey arrived as a transfer he was sitting behind the previously mentioned lottery pick Aldrich, as well as future lottery picks Marcus and Markieff Morris. As soon as the Morris twins left, Withey became a starter and played his way into the NBA the following year.
When the Morris twins arrived, they were behind Aldrich, who ultimately became a lottery pick and departed after their sophomore seasons.
When TRob arrived, he was behind Aldrich and the Morris twins, then just the Morris twins. Once that logjam cleared, he played his way to a top five pick.
And then Perry Ellis. When he arrived, he was behind Withey and the senior Young.
Noticing a trend? Each player arrived and was sitting behind at least one player that would be an NBA draft pick within two seasons, usually a guy that would be an NBA pick after that season.
So, among KU's returning players, who does anyone see as an NBA pick either next year or the following year? NBAdraft.net has Perry as a late second rounder in the 2016 mock, no KU bigs in the 2017 mock. It is fair to note that Bragg does not currently appear in either mock draft, though Legerald Vick does appear as a second rounder in 2017. Draft Express lists no KU bigs in 2016.
Suffice it to say that this is the weakest group of returning KU bigs, in terms of NBA potential, since at least 2007. That means Bragg will have lots of chances to play, even if he isn't particularly productive, because he's easily more talented than Traylor, Lucas, Mickelson, etc. He's the fourth option only if he is bad. Otherwise he's probably third behind Diallo and Ellis, with a chance to play quite a bit.
- Potential
Withey and Aldrich both had ceilings at the next level of shotblocking backups that could give you some limited offense. That's solid, but nothing that will have an executive falling over themselves for after one year in college.
Perry is an undersized 4. He may not have any NBA future despite a very productive collegiate career that will probably place him in a very nice place in the KU record books.
Robinson's initial ceiling was energy guy off the bench, but he showed that he had more offensive skill than most initially thought.
The Morris' were both viewed as tweener players because of their lack of high level athleticism.
Bragg has the athleticism that the Morris twins did not have. He has the skills that TRob lacked as a freshman. He has the size that Ellis lacks. If he combines that profile with production, he can be an NBA draft pick next season.
Bottom line is that right now, I would say Bragg is probably 70% stay, 30% go. He would have to come in and produce consistently for most of the year to be a draftee, and that is obviously not guaranteed. However, the possibility is there.
Ball handling is taxing. Offensively, ball handling is probably the most taxing responsibility. With the ball in your hands, you cannot take a break - ever. You don't get to relax. You don't get to hang out on the weak side and be a decoy. You can't put your hands on your knees and let your mind drift. You get zero rest on the ball.
That's why I monitor PG minutes when a guy is his team's only real ball handler. Those minutes are a huge grind and add up. That's why I worried about Frank wearing down as the season went on (and he did, along with getting banged up).
Selden's transition could lead to a couple of things for KU.
First, Selden could have a huge season after being freed from ball handling duties. This may allow him to be one of our top scorers and just go get buckets and be aggressive. However, this may also mean that his NBA stock could fall because he would be very one dimensional offensively if he can't take on ball handling responsibility. That's good for KU, because it means Selden is probably a 4 year player, but bad for Wayne personally because he probably won't ever make it as a pro if that is the case.
At the college level, I believe Wayne can score enough as a wing to justify him not doing much in the way of ball handling. Wayne has shown that he can score 12-15 and sometimes explode for 20+. However, at the pro level, that type of moderate scoring punch won't be enough for a non-ball handler wing. He would either need to elevate to being an elite wing defender or a more dangerous scorer to have NBA value. Ultimately, that could mean Wayne could end up leading KU through a couple of deep tournament runs over the next couple years, first this year with Perry and then again next year teamed with Bragg.
Traylor is a solid player, but he is also a limited player.
Within his limitations, Traylor can make a lot of positive contributions. However, if you stretch him outside that, his limitations will begin to hurt the team.
First and foremost, Traylor is an effort guy. He isn't either big enough or skilled enough to really be a D1 starter - at 6-7 he doesn't have the size to be a regular PF/C and his skill level isn't high enough to turn him into a solid scorer at either of those positions, either. He doesn't handle well enough to move to the perimeter. So his best contributions will be hustling, defending and generating extra possessions with steals, hustle, offensive rebounds, etc.
Traylor should not be exposed to guarding bigger skilled guys for long stretches. It is unreasonable to ask him to guard anyone taller than 6-8 that has decent skills. He isn't tall enough to do that, and a skilled guy will use his lack of size against him. You can put him on an unskilled big guy because he can use his quickness to frustrate a guy that isn't a skilled shooter/ballhandler. But against a guy like Carlton Bragg or similar skill, he gets eaten alive because he's just too small and has to gamble.
On the offensive end, Traylor is a two dribble guy. He can catch and put the ball on the floor once or twice, at which point he either needs to be shooting or passing. This means that most of his catches should be within 15 feet of the rim to give him his best opportunities for straight line drives to get dunks, layups and easy jump hooks within 8 feet. He has okay touch out to about 15, but only in the catch and shoot context. On the move, he isn't a threat from that range. This means that all of his offense should be contained in a very limited area unless he is setting a pick and immediately diving hard to the rim to use his speed and athleticism to catch a lob or bounce pass for a dunk.
If you try to turn him into a ball handler, his turnovers will skyrocket and the concerns that @HighEliteMajor has expressed will manifest themselves.
All of that means that for Traylor to be most effective, he's probably only a 15-18 minute per game player. Any more and he will start to have to do things that he isn't very good at (ball handling, defending bigger players, shooting outside 15 feet) or he will become a liability on one end of the floor because they won't guard him outside a certain range or he can't match up with anybody either on the perimeter or inside.
It looks like Cliff has landed in a pretty decent situation with Brooklyn. The Nets don't have a lot of frontcourt depth, particularly if they are not able to re-sign Brook Lopez. They are pretty thin at PF/C so Cliff has an opportunity to make that team if he plays well and get a chance to really make an impression in the NBA.
As of right now, Cliff is in at least as good a position as anyone taken in the second round of this year's draft, maybe better because of Brooklyn's current lack of depth at his position(s). If he plays to his potential and talent, he will make it. If he doesn't, he won't. From here on out, it is about production.
Cliff can have the same type of career that TRob or Tarik has. He won't be a star, but 95% of the guys that go to the NBA have no chance of being stars. Most guys will just be roster guys.
Being a college star has no bearing on NBA potential. The level of play is so much higher and most players can't continue to improve to those levels.
Kobe will free up money, but you have to replace that with a top notch backcourt talent. They won't get James Harden. Unless they can get Durant or Westbrook, the cap space after Kobe doesn't make them a contender.
This site ↗ does a nice job of tracking the salary cap. Looks like the Wolves have about $24m in space, but their roster is not full yet, so they probably will be closer to $20m in space when all is said and done. Enough to offer a near max contract and land a nice piece, but you wonder what they will have to offer to get someone to come to Minnesota. The site is supposed to be real time, but I don't know if it assumes rookie salaries or just places a hold.
I think the Wolves have moved on from Rubio. He hasn't been able to stay healthy, and on top of that, he is a very poor shooter (a career 36% FG shooter). Even with his great vision and passing, he's an offensive liability because you can play 8-10 feet off him, which is spacing death for Minnesota.
I do think the Lakers land one of the free agents, but it will be interesting to see how they construct a roster with so much money already tied up.
I think Cliff will be fine if it boils down to basketball skills. He can make it in the NBA based on that. If the decision is made to make an example out of him, he will never get that chance. If that happens, I just hope his life after basketball is more along the lines of Fab Fiver's Ray Jackson and Jimmy King than some of the others that were blackballed out of the NBA.
If Cliff doesn't get blackballed by execs, he can make it in the NBA. But that's a big if.
Cliff isn't a sure fire NBA star, but his talent indicates he could make a team if given a real chance. Whether he gets that chance or not is anyone's guess at this point. If he does get blackballed, he wouldn't be the first (or the last). Every now and then, the NBA likes to show guys who is running things. Hopefully Cliff isn't the guy they have chosen as the latest example.
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The Twolves are still a player away from being any real threat in the West. They either need Zach Lavine to really step up, or Bennett, or Wiggins has to go from being a solid NBA guy to a top 25 player. Otherwise, they will be back in the lottery again next year looking for that other piece.
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I have no idea what the Lakers are up to. Unless they are actually going to get Demarcus Cousins, there was no reason to take Russell.
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The Sixers had no choice but to take Okafor at that point. You have to take the best player available and they had to do that.
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My guess is one of the European players plays well, the other bombs. Just not sure which will do what.
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Once the Euros both went early and both Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow started falling, I knew we were in for a wild night.
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Oubre went a spot later than I predicted, but the trade didn't surprise me. I wasn't expecting the Hawks to grab him, so when they did, I wondered if a deal was coming.
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Cliff probably benefits from not being taken in the second round. If you aren't getting a guaranteed deal, its better to be able to pick your situation than to have it chosen for you.
In the Big 12, I say K-State because they are going to be so talent starved, but they could still be okay if they can ugly the game up.
Nationally, I would guess most of the schools in the Ivy League will probably go that direction and a lot of mid majors will as well. In the big conferences, I could see Wisconsin using something like that with Kaminsky and Dekker gone, although they still have some firepower. Bottom tier teams in the power 5 may toy around with it to stay competitive.
Not a dumb trade, honestly.
We are assuming Wiggins turns into Pippen (i.e., one of the best 15 players in the league). Right now he is nowhere close to that. Maybe one day, but that day isn't today, and likely won't be next season, either.
If Love's shoulder isn't separated, Cleveland might just have won the title. Any trade that puts you in that position is not dumb. Cleveland was on the doorstep of a title. If they win it and Love opts out, they still all get rings and a banner.
This actually puts Cleveland in a good spot. Love moves on, they re-sign Thompson, Mozgov is already back, they have Lebron and Kyrie. JR Smith wants to come back. Shumphert will be back. That's a solid core right there. Love frees up cap space that they can use on others.
Did the trade work out the way Cleveland hoped? But for a faulty shoulder and a bad knee, it may have. You make that kind of trade to win a title. It failed in the sense that they didn't win a title, but they lost a title because they were reduced to their backup PG, backup PF, a SG that could barely lift his arms and a decimated bench. And the Finals still went six games.
@BeddieKU23 said:
I think Hezonja has the chance to be a good NBA player but Porzingis is years away because he's rail thin. I find it hard to believe a team in the top 7 is going to pick Porzingis with the understaning he's going to play from Day 1 and contribute. I think that's reaching a whole lot passing up on players with NBA ready games already.
There are only a handful, maybe 10 guys in a really good year, that are ready to contribute from day 1 to an NBA team. Most of the time, guys just aren't ready to go from day one because the jump in talent/ athleticism/ preparation is so big whether coming from Europe or coming from US colleges.
In this draft, I see four guys that can contribute right away - Towns, Winslow, Okafor and Mudiay. I see probably six more that will contribute during their rookie years - Stanley Johnson (defensive monster), Cauley-Stein (ditto), Kaminsky (stretch 4), DeAngelo Russell (athletic PG), Trey Lyles (matchup nightmare) and Montrezl Harrell (rebounding madman).
But what makes this draft so strong is the fact that a full dozen other guys will probably contribute in year 2 - Oubre, Alexander, Booker, Myles Turner, Rashad Vaughn, Cameron Payne, Delon Wright, RJ Hunter, Dekker, Jerian Grant, Porzingis and Hezonja. All of these guys will probably struggle as rookies because they need to round out their game, but will make a huge leap after a year in the League.
There are probably a couple other sleepers out there as well - Hollis-Jefferson, Bobby Portis, Justin Anderson, Jordan Mickey, Jarrell Martin, Tyus Jones - that could end up being solid guys outside the lottery.
That's a good draft class. Not as much star power, but when you have maybe two dozen guys that could end up being starters/ rotation guys on good teams, that's a strong draft. Probably none of these guys ends up a star - maybe Towns, Okafor or Mudiay - but it's likely that 10 of these guys are starting their second year.
@drgnslayr said:
I've always been shocked by NBA picks. It often seems like an owner who knows nothing about basketball overrides management and coaches.
The teams that do this are the ones that struggle. The good teams are the ones where the ownership stays out of the way and let's the basketball people take care of the basketball side of things. When ownership tinkers with on court stuff, things tend to fall apart.
My guess is Kelly goes between 12 and 18. Once you get past the elite big men in this draft, you run into a bunch of wing guys. After Winslow and Johnson, those wings are strong on one end or the other, but with questions. Some can shoot but can't defend. Some can defend but can't shoot. Some can shoot and defend but can't handle. The thing is, Oubre is a top notch athlete, so he has a chance to fulfill his potential.
The worry with some guys (Anderson from Virginia, Dekker) may have already reached their ceilings because of their age. If that is the case, you have a guy that can contribute at the NBA level, but won't be much more. On the other hand, Oubre still must grow. That means that he could struggle initially, but could ultimately become a star.
A lot of projections have him going to OKC, which would be perfect for both him and for them. He wouldn't have to be an elite scorer immediately because of Durant and Westbrook, but he would have a chance to start out in the same way that Kawhi Leonard did, as the third or fourth best player on a good team.
As for Alexander, I think a saavy team at the end of the first round grabs him. Alexander benefits from not being in the lottery where a team will need him to come in and star immediately. He could end up with Golden State, Cleveland, Chicago, San Antonio, Portland, etc. as a project with a chance to learn on a good team.
My prediction is that Oubre ends up in OKC and Alexander goes to Chicago in the first round or Houston early in the second.
There is a huge difference between being a backup and being the starter.
As a sophomore, many on the former site were clamoring for Tharpe to replace senior Elijah Johnson at the point. It's easy to look great in a limited role, when your weaknesses are hidden in your limited minutes and all we see are your glowing strengths.
When you have to make good decisions for 30 minutes a night, and keep the pace running, and defend the other guy and keep everyone happy, and do all that against the first team for the other side, things get much harder than when you come on for 15 minutes a game against the other team's backups and if you're having an off night you only play 10 minutes instead of 15.
Starters don't have that luxury. When they are bad, they still play 25+ minutes, so we see them being as bad as they are that day.
Tharpe was a limited player. A below average defender, a pretty average decision maker. Slight of build, so he couldn't get into traffic and score effectively all the time. A decent shooter, but one who needed others to attract the defensive attention to truly be effective at the D1 level.. All of that was hidden when he played for short bursts because nobody focuses a defensive gameplan on the backup PG. He can be hidden on the defensive end. Tharpe didn't regress as a junior. He played the same. It's just that we saw his weaknesses because there was nowhere to hide them.
I'm glad for the shot clock change because it will make teams play offense instead of just tossing the ball around the perimeter and sitting on a lead. There is nothing more frustrating than watching a team milk the clock for the first 12-15 seconds of the shot clock before they even start running their offense. With the shot clock shortened, fewer coaches will do that.
If your offense cannot consistently generate a decent look in 20 seconds or so, your offense probably isn't a very good one.
The question has to be asked here given the number of injuries we have suffered - is this a case of overtraining? I know these guys are working under watchful eyes, but it sure seems like we have a lot of significant injuries.
I am not a carry proponent, but I know people who are and try to be respectful/understanding of their position. If it were up to me, I would put a lot more restrictions, but it isn't. So instead we end up with mass shootings like the one at the Jewish Community Center in KC a couple years ago, or the one at the South Carolina church the other night. Senseless stuff. I just wish we could come up with something as a society that allowed responsible people to have their guns for hunting, etc. while keeping them out of the hands of those that would do harm.
As someone that worked around college students for a few years and dealt with more than a couple that had depression/ anxiety issues, I can tell you that Campus Carry is a bad idea. I hope no one is hurt when a depressed freshman becomes distraught in the middle of the night.
This guy is ridiculous.
There were at least 10 jaw drop moments in that three minute clip.
Athleticism is off the charts. He's a bit skinny, but the frame can definitely handle more muscle in time. For now he's just long arms and legs stuffed with fast twitch muscles ready to explode at any moment.
His handles and passing ability are very good. His shot mechanics are spot on. His timing is good. He can take contact in the air and finish. He punishes the rim when he is in close. He's both a skilled and a willing passer. He has a ton of different moves to go to off the dribble. He elevates easily.
About the only criticism I have is that I didn't see any lefty finishes. Other than that, wow. Just wow.
I like his game better than Jayson Tatum. Harry Giles is just on another level, although the knee injury scares me. But Josh Jackson is the type of player that could vault any team into the title conversation.
@nuleafjhawk Agreed. It's just hard to build a team with the combination of talent, drive and intensity coupled with the right set of breaks and health to roll through an entire season.
By my definition, we see one probably every 2-3 years. By yours, we might see one once 5-10 years - the last two probably being Florida in 2007 and Kentucky in 2012.
I'd argue that 2008 was a perfect storm team. A perfect storm of experience with everyone returning from an E8 team except Julian Wright.
Wright's departure creating the perfect rotation for Self - three primary bigs (Arthur, Jackson, Kaun), four primary perimeter players (Chalmers, Rush, Robinson, Collins) and two extra bench guys that could slot in if necessary (Stewart on the perimeter, Aldrich in the post).
If Wright stays, it's likely that Aldrich doesn't play much (if at all) and he probably doesn't have that incredible half against UNC. If Rush doesn't get injured, he's gone, which means that KU team is playing Rodrick Stewart or Tyrel Reed as the fourth perimeter guy instead of lottery pick Brandon Rush.
Everything had to happen perfectly. The NCAA tournament was a perfect storm, too. KU didn't face a seed higher than 8 until the Final Four as Davidson took out #2 Georgetown (a team that had Roy Hibbert and could outsize KU) and #3 Wisconsin (a team that could slow down the game with defense).
KU also benefited by being opposite Memphis. Memphis was destroying teams. Other than a close call in the second round, Memphis won every game prior to the title game by at least 15 points. Instead of having a week to prepare for Kansas, Memphis only got 2 days. That's significant.
KU also drew UNC in a game that I don't know if Roy Williams was honestly ready to coach.
All in all, everything broke right for KU, from Wright leaving to Rush staying to the way the bracket went, everything turned out just right for KU. That's the perfect storm.
The Cav coach should have put Lebron on the low block and just let him shoot 2s and free throws for the series. It would have saved Lebron’s energy. It was stupid having him driving AND taking treys. A losing strategy by definition.
It would have been fairly tough on Lebron physically to post up the entire series. They would have put a big guy like Draymond Green on him to bang with him, which would have been just as exhausting as playing on the perimeter. Golden State had the luxury of being able to change up their matchups if necessary because they had more (healthy) depth than Cleveland. Banging inside against NBA guys will wear anyone down because those guys are just so strong.
Cleveland had a decent strategy. However, the story of the series was watching Smith, Shumpert and Dellavadova miss open threes. At one point last night they were a combined 1-10 from the field and Cleveland was only down by 2 at that time. With Lebron drawing double teams and bending the defense, those three were open time and time again, but time and time again, they missed. That was a killer for the Cavs. Their only hope was to be able to get 10-15 points a game from each of that trio. In the second half of Game 5, and in Game 6, they got almost nothing.
A healthy Wiggins would have helped in this series.
However, a healthy Love would have been invaluable as an offensive weapon and rebounding presence. A healthy Irving would have been enormous in a ball handling role. Cleveland simply had no offensive punch outside of Lebron in this series and the Warriors exploited their lack of offensive power to the fullest.
Cleveland's problem in this series wasn't defense. They defended well enough to hang around in every game except Game 5. The back breaker was always that you didn't know if they could score. I give Blatt credit for sticking with Mozgov last night in hopes that they could find an average offense by going big. It helped, but they were in no position to match up with the talent drop off from Irving to Dellavadova and Love to Thompson.
I think this series really shows just how huge the talent gap is in the NBA. Without Irving and Love, Cleveland looked like a barely functional NBA team. You can't just turn it over to the backups at that level because the difference between a backup and a top tier player is too big to overcome. Lebron kept them in it, but the only way to equalize the teams would have been if Klay Thompson and Draymond Green had been unavailable for Golden State.
Golden State has made their open threes. Cleveland has missed theirs. That's the story of the series. When the Cavs collapsed to cut off drives, the Warriors made them pay. Cleveland's shooters could not do the same.
James was the MVP of the Finals. Either him or Iguodala for the work he did on James.
Self will have to adjust. KU can still run the hi/lo and I think you are right about getting into it from the secondary break. But once the clock goes under 15 seconds, KU needs to get into a pick and roll or some sort of flare action to get a quick hitter going because you don't want to look up and have Frank Mason with the ball 25 feet from the bucket with 6 seconds on the shot clock.
Improvement is not linear. We have to assume that all of our juniors and seniors are going to play almost exactly the way they played last year. There is no real reason to believe that a veteran (Perry, Selden, Lucas, Mickelson, Traylor) is going to suddenly take a big leap forward. It just isn't likely. They have experience in the system, so it is unlikely that some new lightbulb will click on and they will leap forward. Their limitations, whether physical or otherwise, have been well documented. It is unlikely that they will close a hole in their game that has existed throughout their collegiate career.
Maybe Selden stays healthy, or Perry plays with a continuous chip, or Traylor gets a jumpshot, or Lucas is light on his feet, or Mickelson steps forward... but that is all unlikely.
If any veteran emerges, it will likely be Graham taking a leap similar to what Frank Mason did last year. Outside that, any improvement we see will probably come from the freshmen.
I agree with @RockkChalkk that Bragg is the key. However, I would add that Vick is the other key. This team needs a dynamic wing scorer. Experience has taught us that it likely will not be Selden. Maybe it's Svi, but if not, maybe Vick adds a spark that is currently lacking on this team.
The quicker shot clock benefits teams with guards that can get their own shot. When the shot clock runs down, you have to have a creator that can get their own. For a lot of coaches, this will require them loosening the reins a bit on offense so that guys have the freedom to just break down the defense if they can't get into their set, or the first couple option off a set aren't there. Individual ballhandlers will be the biggest beneficiaries because they can create on their own when the clock runs down. Teams reliant on getting the ball into the post may struggle because swinging the ball from side to side to get that quality entry takes time. There will come a point where you have to abandon the post entry in each possession in favor of either a side pick and roll or a 1-4 clearout. The key is to ensure that when that point comes, the ball is in the hands of someone that can do something.
Defensively, pressing teams like West Virginia and Texas will force a lot of bad possessions. With Baylor playing the zone, they could also force some confusion as teams may struggle to get into their zone offense, which could lead to some bad shots as the clock ticks down.
On the offensive end, I would say the biggest benefactors are Oklahoma, Iowa State (if they continue to play the matchup style), and Kansas (although I would have liked to have a Malik Newman or Jaylen Brown to go to against the clock). I think it's pretty neutral for most teams, honestly. It probably hurts a team like Texas Tech or K-State offensively because they just don't have enough threats.
Defensively, I think it helps pressure teams, so obviously Texas and West Virginia are the biggest winners on that end. Other teams may experiment with some token pressure to gain an advantage from time to time as well.
Ultimately, the teams with talent will benefit most, although the biggest key will be to not overcoach, as it will be incumbent on the players to make plays against the shot clock.
Why must Wayne Selden taunt us every year by looking like he has his old explosiveness back? That baseline reverse dunk was nasty. It's sad that he has never been able to maintain that bounce for the entire year. Wayne just looks so comfortable playing basketball in these highlights.
The athleticism on this team could be insane. Svi looks really good. Vick looks nice. Bragg is the best big guy. Diallo will be awesome. Even Lucas has a bit more explosion from the looks of it.
Now the question is how we will capitalize on all of this athleticism.
The problem that KU faced is that everyone knows Coach Self doesn't want to shoot tons of threes. They know that if KU shoots 15 threes in the first half, chances are they will pound the ball inside to start the second half because Coach Self believes threes are fool's gold.
It goes against Coach Self's natural basketball DNA to have his team fire up lots of threes, regardless of who his shooters are. With a different coach, I think last year's team probably shoots more threes, and shoots at a higher clip because they know they have the green light. Put a coach like Rick Pitino with that team and I am almost sure they chuck 25+ threes a night. But that's natural for a coach like Pitino. It goes against what Self does.
Curry's drives are opened up by the fact that you basically have to guard him as closely as possible because he is so dangerous from three. He doesn't really need any space to get his shot off, so you have to concede that he may beat you off the dribble just by playing him so close. That opens it up for everyone else because the defense is bent to it's breaking point by Curry. I couldn't count how many times Curry was doubled off the pick and roll and Golden State just swung the ball until somebody was wide open. A lesser shooter doesn't get that type of attention, which means his team isn't benefiting from those wide open looks.
@Crimsonorblue22 He has broken bones in each hand, but nothing that has been chronic. Each of his injuries has been somewhat of a freak accident. He doesn't have bad knees or a bad back or anything that suggests injury. He has usually only missed a handful of games each year:
2009 - 1
2010 - 22 (broken left hand)
2011 - 9
2012 - all games played in lockout shortened season
2013 - 64 (broken right hand)
2014 - 5
2015 - 7
That's not bad, honestly. No chronic or repeated injuries.
I bet Lebron is frustrated that three of the five guys that were supposed to be starting for this team are wearing suits on the sidelines during the Finals - Irving, Love, and the often forgotten Anderson Varejao.
Cleveland has literally been crippled by injuries, which has made this Finals so unfortunate. They just don't have enough healthy players to play pretty basketball. Their only hope is the dreaded bad ball. Slog it up on defense and play through Lebron on literally every possession offensively. If both teams were closer to full strength, this would be a really fun strategic series.
The playoffs this year have been more about attrition than they have been about aesthetics. The number of top notch players that was either out or significantly limited by injury has been overwhelming, and in the NBA, the drop off in talent from the top tier to the next is enormous.
Take Cleveland's drop off at PG. Kyrie Irving is an elite player. Matthew Dellavadova is a bench player that is playing 40 minutes a game because Kyrie Irving isn't there. In game 1, Irving at 75% was better than Dellavadova at 95%. Cleveland's entire offense has changed because they don't have Love, Irving, etc. to run their regular sets.
Golden State has been limited a bit as well, though they have their key cogs (Curry, Thompson, Green, etc.) so they can run their regular stuff, which has let them open the game up down the stretch in each of the last two games.
James has been exceptional, but his chances were cooked when Irving's knee gave out. The drop off in talent was just too much to make up in the NBA.
You can go small, but only if you let your guards dominate the ball and the scoring. You have to shoot lots of threes with an all time great shooter like Golden State, or you have to have a dominant all around player like Cleveland.
Either approach would require Self to change his coaching methods significantly. He would have to allow Frank and Devonte to drive and kick at will with no post ups to open up the lane for the drives. This move would also probably mean that our best lineup could be Mason, Graham, Shooter to be named later, Ellis and Bragg. That would be a very mobile lineup, each guy can handle the basketball and shoot from the perimeter, and, other than Ellis, none of those guys would be a traditional post up guy.