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konkeyDong
383 posts
Florida's Formula • Mar 29, 2014 02:25 AM

But you connect the dots there .. winning the conference will put you in a good position to get a #1 seed, which equates to more tourney success.

NOOOOOOO!!!! Every time @HighEliteMajor says that being a #1 seed improves tournament success, I feel like jumping off a bridge... Match ups matter so much more than seeding that it's not even funny. I know, I know, #1 seeds win the title 80% of the time, but that just proves that the best teams are frequently seeded properly, not that seeding improves your chances. That's like concluding that coughing causes colds because people with colds are always coughing. Difference between causation and correlation. Learn it :)

How desperate are we for a PG exactly? • Mar 27, 2014 05:45 PM

@MoonwalkMafia Good find, although it sounds like it's not quite a done deal. ↗

How desperate are we for a PG exactly? • Mar 27, 2014 04:19 PM

@JRyman I would agree with that.

Does anybody remember Nino Jackson? He was a PG recruit on our radar a few years ago that seemed to have all kinds of issues, and I don't know that he ever ended up anywhere (a google search shows he played this last season at Loyola Marymount after spending a year at some NACA Div III school in Georgia). Adams bouncing around kind of reminds me of that guy.

Nino Jackson wound up at Kevin Young's old school LMU, but he left almost as quickly as he arrived. ↗

Joel's Gone • Mar 27, 2014 04:11 PM

Well, even though this rumor proved to be unfounded for the moment, it may well still come true. The question becomes where do we go from there? Myles Turner is the obvious answer, but Self has also been looking at Juco center Akolda Manyang

[Akolda Manyang](

He, like Turner, is more limited offensively than Embiid, but he's also a great rim protector and is pretty agile for his size. Again, I'm not making a direct comparison to Embiid, because he's no where near that level, but he could be a serviceable piece should Embiid split and Turner miss.

How desperate are we for a PG exactly? • Mar 27, 2014 03:41 PM

Ok. Moment of full disclosure. When I posted this, I also knew that Anrio Adams didn't even make it through a full season in Odessa. ↗ He's not going to be playing ball anywhere in the foreseeable future, but I thought I'd check the room's pulse.

How desperate are we for a PG exactly? • Mar 27, 2014 03:03 AM

So I'm going to throw a wild idea out there. Just give it some thought. Don't be too quick to judge. How would you like to sign a 6'3" Juco combo guard with a 6'10" wingspan, who's quick as a hiccup, and last season averaged 12 ppg on 46% shooting, 40% from deep, 1.9 spg and 2.5 apg? Sound good. Check out this kid. ↗

Okay, okay. I said it was a nutty idea. Probably impossible, but according to this article ↗ he's back on the auction block and looking to sign with a D1 school where he can play immediately. Also, he's probably ahead of any of our guys defensively. Ok. Now laugh me off the forum or tell me I'm crazy like a fox.

Selden: Pop, Hop and Trey • Mar 26, 2014 08:29 PM

@konkeyDong

Most HS teams are limited to 20 games per season. At KU he played 35 games that required a much, much higher level of physical effort compared to high school. It is normal that towards the end of the season players, particularly freshmen, are worn out.

Isn't that what I just said?

Selden: Pop, Hop and Trey • Mar 26, 2014 03:54 PM

Given that Selden was wearing all that leg gear since his jr year in HS,

[HS](

I think it's relatively safe to say that any loss in pop over the season was due to the normal wear and tear of the game, or at least that any knee problems he has he brought with him. I'll change my mind on that if we get news of a surgery, but until then, file this away as a known factor.

March: Post-Season News Headlines Digest • Mar 26, 2014 03:48 PM

@icthawkfan316 Who said anything about polls? Top 3 and top 5 are absolute assessments, not where I think the AP will put us. And we were top 10 most of the year, save when Embiid was out, at which point KU became a very mediocre team. If you look at any of the advanced statistical models, we averaged about the top 8 most of the year with a very young team. Not even the alive and kicking UK Wildcats can say the same. Embiid's injury had more to do with our post season collapse than any other factor about this team.

I think I understood you perfectly, but I still disagree. I wouldn't count on Alexander necessarily being a bench guy if we got Turner or vice versa. Self likes defenders, which Ellis is not. If Alexander can produce and defend, Perry's role on the team becomes endangered. But even if we are pulling Alexander off the bench, the downgrade from Embiid in the middle to Black is so maddeningly huge, that even if Turner isn't quite as good defensively as Embiid (and I still contend that he's as good or maybe even slightly better simply because he's been playing ball so much longer), Alexander is so much better all around than even the senior version of Tarik Black that you come out with a net positive because you're basically not losing anything in terms of turning shots away. It's conjecture on both of our parts at this point anyway, but in either case, I think we'd both agree the ideal scenario is to get Embiid back. If we lose Embiid and miss on Turner, I think we'll be looking 2 years down the line as well, but who knows what the landscape will look like at that point either?

March: Post-Season News Headlines Digest • Mar 26, 2014 03:13 PM

@icthawkfan316 I couldn't disagree with you more on Alexander/Turner vs Embiid/Black. Embiid is definitely a better offensive player than Turner, but defensively Turner is the top shot blocker in his class. The same couldn't be said of Embiid. I think at worst, they're a wash on D. Alexander, on the other hand, is going to be much better than Black on BOTH ends of the floor. Black was never a good defender. He's neither a shot blocker nor a guy that could keep a driving big in front of him without fouling, and he's only a so-so rebounder. I have no idea why you think Alexander is any kind of downgrade. The guys are about the same size, but Alexander has an enormous wingspan and has shown excellent timing. Upgrade all around. As for Mickelson, he doesn't have to play a lot of minutes to be a factor. He just has to be able to be a rim protector when our primary goes off the floor. That could be as little as 3 minutes a game as long as it means we can continue to challenge shots at the rim. That's not something we can do with an Ellis/Traylor/Lucas line up. The bigger picture, however, is that puts us 3 deep at rim protectors next season, rather than 1. Likewise, even if Oubre isn't Wiggins on D, he doesn't have to be for us to come up better on the perimeter. Selden gets the opportunity to improve too, as will Frankamp and Mason, even if they don't start over Tharpe. Tharpe for defensive improvement is a lost cause, as, I am afraid, is Ellis. But we'll have more viability only putting one of those guys on the floor at a time as long as the Embiid/Turner thing comes through.

On top of all of that, it's important to remember that team strength is relative. Arizona is likely to lose a bunch of key players. So is Florida, Louisville, Virginia, Duke, Baylor, Cuse, UConn, ISU, etc. UNC and UK should retain enough talent to be better teams, as should Texas and others, but looking at the current landscape, I'm expecting the combination of more experience on our bench plus the reload to put us in a better position to win games all season long.

March: Post-Season News Headlines Digest • Mar 26, 2014 02:00 PM

@icthawkfan316 @Hawk8086 You guys are thinking too small. If Embiid returns, we'll be a top 3 team going into next season. If he doesn't, but we sign Myles Turner, we'll be top 5 at least. I think we're looking at a return to the Final Four next season if either of those things is true, especially if Mason or Frankamp can displace Tharpe (Although personally, I'd like to see what Selden can do on point. I'd hoped that's what he was recruited for. He's just not a wing.). Oubre won't score like Wigs, but he can defend very well, actually has longer arms, is a worse shooter, but a much stronger ball handler and passer. He'll fit in better in a system that plays through the post. Mickleson will give us someone who can still be a rim protector when Embiid/Turner sits, and Alexander should be a decent shot blocker too (although he needs to be cured of his swatting ways). In other words, I expect a return to a more classic Self type team of strong defenders that turn D into O and are capable of winning ugly.

March: Post-Season News Headlines Digest • Mar 25, 2014 08:23 PM

@HighEliteMajor

@JayHawkFanToo You may get tired of second guessing, I get that. But I'm interested in why you think the second guessing is wrong?

I wish I could sit back like I did in 2012 and watch coach Self do everything possible to get the maximum out of his team. But this year he did not.

-Should he have benched Tharpe?

-Is our zone offense deficient?

-Does he minimize the importance of three point shooting in his scheme?

-Against Stanford, should he have at least tried moving Wiggins to the high post as Greg Anthony mentioned?

If I may, let me take a stab at these:

Yes.

No. Even if this team wasn't good at executing it, I can point back to the 06 - 2013 teams as never really having struggled with zone defenses in general the way this team did. Nearly every one of our losses was at the hands of a zoning team and we only beat a few. So I've got to think it's more personnel than the overall strategy. Could the strategy have been adapted to fit the personnel? A bit, but the first answer encompasses the most important change.

Maybe? Do you mean did he minimize the importance of 3pt shooting in general, against zones, or are you talking about defense. I'm going to answer the first one and say yes, because none of his good 3pt shooters were good enough defenders to cover up Tharpe and Ellis being on the floor at the same time. Greene can get there. I think Frankamp stepped it up too. White's probably gone, and even if he's not, he should red-shirt so that's a moot point anyway.

No! I don't know why Greg Anthony suggested this at all. Has he seen Wigs in the middle of a zone? The real shortcoming Andrew Wiggins has as a player is that he lacks a high BBIQ. Yeah, his jump shooting is inconsistent and his handle is too loose, but both of those things can be traced back to he doesn't really know where to attack off the drive and so he pulls up for shots when he shouldn't and crashes into multiple defenders too often, losing the ball in the process. The kid will be a killer in the NBA where he won't face a clogged lane or help defenders too often, but the college game is soooo different. Anyway, broader point is, I think Wigs in the center just leads to turnovers. He's not a good enough passer or high enough BBIQ player to be counted on to make good decisions from there, and like the other 6'8" guys we put in the middle, he struggled to put shots up over 6'10" defenders. Julian Wright was a player you could stick in the middle of a zone and he'd just tear it to pieces. With more experience and coaching, Wigs might have got there, but the detriment of being possibly the greatest non-professional athlete in North America is that he never had to learn how to do those things in order to be successful (compare to Jabari Parker, who is the better college player, tho I think Wigs will eclipse in the NBA).

Anyhow, Selden's coming back, so that's exciting.

Loss Starts With Self • Mar 25, 2014 12:32 AM

@HighEliteMajor As a guy who coached, I'd expect no less a response, HEM, but you're overstating your case. After all, if the coach is everything, why not send out Justin Wesley and Niko Roberts? Also, as I recall, Self tried posting up Wigs a few times early on in the season with nothing to show for it. I don't believe Self is above criticism, but it's hard to take that criticism seriously when you don't give him credit for the things that he did try.

See you guys next season • Mar 25, 2014 12:14 AM

@HighEliteMajor True, but it cuts both ways. Even Phil Jackson loses when his team doesn't make shots. One can't solve the other. Both things have to come together at some point. It can never be all Self's fault nor all the fault of the players, but at the end of the day, each member of the team is responsible for doing his part.

See you guys next season • Mar 24, 2014 10:28 PM

@JayHawkFanToo and @konkeyDong - Remember, missed shots don't just occur because a player misfires. It's because they are contested. That's part of scheme.

It's why Self harps on opposing field goal percentage. What are we contesting? How do we create a low shooting percentage?

How many open looks did we get vs. Stanford down low or anywhere?

It's more complex than, "we missed shots."

I agree that it's more complex than "we missed shots", however, in a game that you lost by 3 points and can easily go back and point to 3 or more misses at the rim that weren't contested and someone did just misfire, it's hard to argue that simply missing shots didn't contribute to the loss. It did. It is what it is. The game basically comes down to Perry not finishing an easy lob in the first half because he mishandled the pass, and Wiggins driving in for an uncontested layup from the wing and missing because he put the ball on the glass at a bad angle rather than throwing down when he could (and how many time did we see him do that this year?). It also didn't help that there were another 3 or so unforced TOs early.

Stanford, to their credit, got in our players heads and made them contest themselves, but that's something that, ultimately, is in the hands of Perry, and Wigs, and Traylor, etc. Self can yell. He can tell them to be aggressive. He can get after them to go up strong, but the horses have to decide to drink the water at some point. As always, there are adjustments that could have been made and things that could have been tried, but there's also no guarantee that the path not taken was the road to victory. I don't mean to be fatalistic, but playing this game is exactly what I was afraid we'd see without Joel Embiid on the floor, and it's why I started the thread asking if we got the most difficult draw for us. It may simply be the case that, given JoJo's injury, our draw, and the limitations of a freshmen team, there wasn't a realistic way to win this one. I don't claim that as an absolute, but I think statistically we'd lose this match up more often than not without Embiid on the floor regardless of acute tactics.

If we do blame Self for anything or everything, blame him for the thing that mattered most, which is recruiting a PG that can't defend nor deliver consistently good play. Do you remember last year when we were all watching EJ be ineffectual on the offensive end and wondering why Self didn't play Tharpe more? No here we are, having spent a season watching Tharpe be ineffectual on the defensive end, and this time not surrounded by a team of top notch defenders to hide his weaknesses, and we're clambering for yet another change. Frankamp can be the answer. Mason too. But Tharpe clearly isn't it. I hope Self takes advantage of the senior transfer rule again and spends his spring searching for the next Deandre Kane, but we'll see. Either way, Tharpe needs to return to the bench for the foreseeable future, and a general needs to be put on the floor.

See you guys next season • Mar 23, 2014 07:30 PM

@FarSideHawk When you're down, you play to your strengths, not your weaknesses. Frankamp was great and hit 4-7 from deep, but this is the only game of the season he shot better than 33% from deep. The best of our 'snipers' was 38% on the year and finished 33% in this game. We are a 34% 3pt shooting team. Switching to jacking up 3s when no one is hitting them is a perfect recipe for failure. We were a better team attacking the rim. We missed a lot of easy ones too, so it's not all down to Stanford's length. Guys didn't focus/play aggressive.

See you guys next season • Mar 23, 2014 07:22 PM

We know why we lost, don't we? It's the same reason we lost to VCU. Coach Self choked.

Right. He missed like 50 layups...

It's the most wonderful time of the year • Mar 18, 2014 05:42 PM

Hate to burst your bubble @JRyman , but UNC has the longest stretch of invites ever at 27, although ours is the current longest active stretch, and I don't foresee it lapsing before we surpass them.

Did we draw the toughest bracket? • Mar 17, 2014 03:40 AM

@KUSTEVE
While I appreciate the bravado, Cuse, VCU, and UF all press and turn you over. Turning the ball over is basically what this team does best. And I'll not be convinced that Black can defend Kirk in the post until I see it. Bairstow will probably have his way, but Ellis will too, so I consider that a wash. It's true that they don't have the best guard play, but our point guard isn't exactly elite either. I don't think we'll be blowing the doors off them in the rematch, but I do think it's very winnable. Beating UF means having JoJo back in full force and Tharpe playing the game of his career. I don't have faith in those things, but I do have hope. And if there is a coach that can thread the needle here, I think Self is that guy. Anyway, I do hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Did we draw the toughest bracket? • Mar 17, 2014 02:54 AM

Past that, all bets are off. We become a new team in the Sweet 16. With Embiid back, we are a different animal. At this point, who cares about Florida or Syracuse. Nobody knows if they'll even be waiting for us.

I won't lie I was kinda pissed we didn't get the 2-seed in the MW...until I saw the bracket. No. Thanks. I like the expression from @wissoxfan83, stuff of nightmares. I've been saying all season long that WSU might not even get to the Sweet 16, but to see how likely it is...it's kind of surreal. For everyone complaining about drawing UNM in the second game, honestly tell me you'd rather play UK or KSU in the second round. No thanks.

Have some faith KU fans. Personally, I think this sets up pretty nicely for us.

I can tell you I'd honestly rather have KSU or UK as a round of 32 opponent. Cauley Stein is the exact sort of player that Black can handle. He's big, but he doesn't really have a back to the basket game, you can foul him and he won't make you pay very often on the stripe, he doesn't put the ball on the floor, etc. We don't really have anyone for Randle without JoJo, unless you're willing to make Wigs guard him and put Ellis on the perimeter, but I don't like that idea. Instead, double team Randle and force UK to make jump shots. They aren't very good at it. On the flip side, Randle plays terrible D. He's probably the best rebounder in the NCAA, but he gives zero effort on D most of the time, so I have no doubt we could just take it directly to him every time. High screen to get Cauly Stein out of the paint, then attack Randle off the bounce. KSU needed all of their juice to eek out a win against us at their place without Embiid. On a semi-neutral court, I'd take us every time.

Did we draw the toughest bracket? • Mar 17, 2014 12:57 AM

@globaljaybird
Easten Kentucky is a guard laden and extremely small team that plays really bad D. They CAN shoot the 3 ball, but I don't think they can prevent us from rebounding and outscoring them in the paint. Get them to speed up, get them to take quick shots, attack them off the dribble, and we'll run them out of the building. They're basically a worse version of Toledo. But yeah, first things first.

Did we draw the toughest bracket? • Mar 17, 2014 12:01 AM

Maybe I should rephrase. I think it's going to be the most difficult one for us to emerge from. I agree that overall the Midwest bracket has the most good teams, but I think we match up way better with most of the teams out there, especially if JoJo makes his return in the Sweet 16. Still, I'm feeling pretty queasy about it.

Did we draw the toughest bracket? • Mar 16, 2014 10:50 PM

I gotta kind of think that the NCAA seeding committee doesn't want us to do anything this year. Florida, 'Cuse, VCU... Add in 'ville and that would complete my list of teams I think we match up the worst with. The most I could hope for is a bracket collapse. I'm not even sure about getting to the Sweet 16. We dominated UNM in KC, but we had Embiid and they couldn't match up to him. I'm not sure how well Black can take on Alex Kirk on either end of the floor. It's going to take everything we can muster to get past these guys. Now, I'm not about to go all chicken little or anything, but this seems to be the most top heavy bracket. I don't think we can count on a lot of upsets to spare us facing really bad match ups.

Worst 3PT Team of Self Era? • Mar 16, 2014 10:45 PM

@jaybate 1.0
Acutally jaybate, I couldn't agree more that Wigs is nothing like Lebron. If Wigs does become a great player, I agree that it's more likely to be in the mold of Jordan, rather than King James, but really, the point I was trying to make was that his success in the association doesn't depend so much on being the most polished player coming in, but that it depends on his ability to get better. Clearly, Lebron has done that. Julian Wright never did and also didn't get along well enough with his coaches that they were willing to stick it out with him. I think Wigs is a lot more coachable, and even if he's never the best player in the league, I think he has some legitimate all star years ahead of him.

Rethinking SOS • Mar 16, 2014 06:24 PM

@nuleafjhawk My condolences go out to you and your

@HighEliteMajor We may have over done it a tad for this year, but I do like harder scheduling, and I think the data you brought up bears that out for the most part. Teams that schedule well tend to over-perform their seeding in March. This is especially true for 1 and 2 seeds. 2s that scheduled tough tend to perform more like 1s, and while 1s that schedule well don't necessarily win more games, they're significantly less likely to be upset compared to 1s that scheduled weak.

Even Self considered his nonconf scheduling a joke, and I would have to think that goes doubly so for such a young team, but I prefer these schedules to the ones we saw in 2011, 2013, and 2006. Self generally does a good job of tough scheduling. I think you want to remain in probably the top 10 to 15 range if you've got a serious contender on your hands. I hope that we have a top 10 schedule for next season because I think that team will be more likely to win it all than this team. We'll see what happens though. Gotta keep those fingers crossed.

Worst 3PT Team of Self Era? • Mar 16, 2014 05:02 AM

@jaybate 1.0 Well, Wiggins & Selden are only freshman. Take a player like Kane, who in 3 seasons at Marshall shot 31.8%, 25%, & 24.8% (that's progressing from freshman to junior seasons). Naz Long shot 27.8% last year as a freshman. Markel Brown shot 26.2%, 31.9%, 36.4% his first three years at OSU. I'm not even going to bother with Smart, who we know isn't a good jump shooter, or Stevie Clark, who had limited attempts before being kicked off the team. Even the best sharpshooter on your list - Phil Forte - shot 33.8% last year as a freshman.

So Wiggins & Selden are actually shooting better as freshman than everyone on your list.

I'd add to that that Lebron James didn't come out of high school as a great shooter, hitting only 29% from deep and 41% from the field. Julian Wright didn't drop out of the league because he failed to come in and be a great player. He dropped out because he never developed. He was a jack of many trades and a master of none. It's hard to make a living like that in the league.

Well, that wasn't good. • Mar 16, 2014 12:47 AM

5 new starters. Toughest schedule in college basketball in 20 years. Losing the potential number 1 pick in the NBA draft (if he jumps) to injury...I think we've done very damn well, thank you very much. I'm proud of our team, and not the least bit concerned about a meaningless conference tourney game. I think our guys could use the rest. The NCAA tournament will be a step down in competition for us, at least in our first two games, then Mr. Embiid returns. Have faith, fellow fans..all is not lost.

Steve, despite what we saw yesterday, I do absolutely believe we can advance in the tournament, but it's going to be really difficult to play a team like ISU or Creighton without JoJo. I vastly underestimated the impact he was having on those games. We're still a good team without JoJo, and given the right match ups, we can go far, but Embiid smooths over so many of those rough areas for this team, and our weakness were truly exposed yesterday.

That doesn't mean I'm down on us at all. We rallied to beat OSU and Wig was worn out from having played all 45 minutes the previous day. If we didn't have the toughest first round opponent and Wiggins shots were dropping, I think we could have matched ISU's firepower, but whatever. We have plenty of time to solve the problems we have. The only down side is that we didn't get to see how we match up with a team of length like Baylor without JoJo, so there will be that question. We're unlikely to face a team with more than one really good player in a 15 seed, so I'm willing to bet we can coast on star power through the first weekend, but advancing beyond that will really take some ciphering on Self's part. Either that or we need Wiggins to sustain those 30 point efforts over the course of 6 games. That, I think is the less reliable path.

Well, that wasn't good. • Mar 16, 2014 12:39 AM

I got to see pretty much everything I opined would be a good idea in this game and we got our asses handed to us. Shows what I know...

They All Stepped Up.. • Mar 14, 2014 02:46 AM

@konkeyDong we did play small ball, Traylor 5 and Greene said he was 4, I thought it was wiggins. Read after game that Greene said he didn't get much practice at the 4. Didn't go to well though! On Traylor, he's always reminded me of TRob, love them both! Mari's developed a jumper that TRob didn't ever have. Lots of hope for him to keep improving!

Fair enough. Like I said, I didn't really get to watch all of the second half, so if they did play that configuration I didn't see it, and I never saw Greene guarding Nash, which is what I was hoping for. I did read that Greene didn't have much of a game, but I wouldn't tank the idea over one performance. I still think he'd match up well against Ejim or Niang, at least better than Black does.

They All Stepped Up.. • Mar 14, 2014 02:32 AM

@Hawk8086 I didn't get to watch it live exactly, cause I was at work, but I did see enough of the end, plus I rewatched the first half after getting home. Overall I was very please with the first half. We looked really good and with a few exceptions, we forced a lot of tough shots for OSU. We did that usual thing of having too many unforced TOs, especially that 5-second inbounds call, but as @jaybate pointed out, 14 TOs is pretty good for this team, especially against pressure and a skilled pickpocket like Smart.

I was a little disappointed that we didn't see a small ball line up to match OSU. I can't argue with the results, but as much as Perry labored through the game on both ends, I would have liked to see what Greene or White could do on and against Nash. Jamari was a huge bright spot, though, and his improvement in many ways has been the most dramatic of anyone's this year. I know we all expected Ellis to come up, and he really has, but Traylor has gone from a guy who's ceiling I thought was super garbage man to a kid that can read the spacing of a D and no when he has a path to the basket, put the ball on the floor, and finish, as well as use his upper body to clear space and finish off the glass in the post. He may never live up to the 'mini TRob' billing, but as a senior, he can be a legit starter.

I don't think ISU actually poses as much of a threat to us as OSU because Kane really isn't a defensive presence the way Smart is, even though they're both very effective at the point. I think we should keep the same kind of defensive scheme against them, with Kane defended by Selden and Tharpe on Naz Long, or whoever the shooter d'jour is. And again, I'd like to see us play some small ball (unlike what we did this game). Black is a real odd man out against ISU. He can be a net positive if he rebounds and posts up as well as he did against OSU, but he's really not shown the ability to defend a player like Georges Niang or Melvin Ejim, and I don't expect that to change overnight. Traylor probably has the best chance to bother Niang, but I think he and Perry can at least cancel out, so why not try Greene or White on Ejim and give ourselves a little more spacing for Wigs to drive or Ellis to post up? It also really makes it difficult to double the post the way ISU did in our previous two meetings. We aren't going to have Embiid to gracefully dribble out and repost, or use his size to find a cutter for a drop-off pass, but we can have perimeter shooters.

At the end of the day, though, I'll be pleased as long as we win.

Did Bill Self really call.... • Mar 14, 2014 02:15 AM

So I don't really remember how much it was discussed because the timing was right around the time the LJW boards became dead to me, but maybe Holly Rowe is the other woman... JK :p

They All Stepped Up.. • Mar 14, 2014 02:13 AM

Obviously he "threw" the ball.

Not to pick nits, but that little pencil icon on your posts is the edit button.

@drgnslayr I don't love the 1-2-2 for the same reasons I don't like 3-2, chiefly that it exposes Black. That said, Black acquitted himself quite well today, so who knows.

More generally rating the game, I think Self adjusted well. He played Tharpe off point defensively (which was no surprise cause he did the same thing in Stillwater, but I hope he keeps it up against ISU) and, although he didn't go small ball per se, we did get a lot of the same effect with the mobility of Traylor and Ellis on the floor at the same time. Zoning ISU is probably both out of the question and unnecessary. They've got shooters all over the floor and they play small, so let's just embrace, or at least, that's what I say. If we get past ISU, any of Texas, Baylor or WVU would give us a chance to work on zoning most of a game or throwing it in. The Way Baylor's playing at the moment, they might just be the ones to emerge, and they're probably the hardest remaining matchup. Can't wait to watch this play out.

Adjustments I'd like to see Self make for OSU and going forward without Embiid:

The question that's on everyone's mind, or at least should be, will be answered around 4pm this afternoon. Was the WVU game last Saturday an aberration, or was it the true KU-sans-Embiid exposed? My take is neither, but that doesn’t mean changes won’t have to be made. As @HighEliteMajor and others have pointed out, Self, as talented as he is, is about as flexible as a 2-ton i-beam. But if Holly Rowe’s tweet is true, and this team is breaking huddles with a shout of ā€˜National Champs’, then Coach Self no longer has the luxury of intransigence. The only thing really keeping this team from being the best offensive force in the country is turnovers (we’re ranked #5 by kenpom.com despite giving up the ball on 19.1% of our possessions), but on the defensive end of things, we’re considerably less strong. Embiid’s role in this, and this should be no surprise given his Big 12 DPOY status, has been bailing out KU’s porous perimeter defense with his mere presence, not to mention high block rate (11.5%, which ranks 26th nationally).
Without JoJo, however, we’re considerably more vulnerable in the paint, as Juwan Staten made painfully clear to us. It’s not that we don’t have a good post defender alternative. Tarik Black is actually very good defensively. He’s got great length and strength so as not to be pushed around by post players of any size. Unfortunately, he can’t be relied upon to stay out of foul trouble, even if, often times, those fouls are unwarranted. Jamari Traylor and Justin Wesley are too foul prone too, but for real. They both tend to either set illegal screens on the offensive end, or play with their hands too much on D. Perry Ellis usually gets criticized for being too slow defensively. I don’t think that’s really the case either, he just isn’t a good help defender most of the time. He has a tendency to rotate too late, meaning a lack of recognition, not quickness. Lucas, for his part, is an odd kind of tweener. He’s neither strong enough for his size to hold his ground in the post against big bigs, nor is he quick and agile enough to use his length to simply bother shots. I think he could be either of these things, but he needs to make a decision on what kind of player he wants to be and work with Hudy to adjust his size accordingly during the off season. In the meantime, the best we can hope for out of him as that he does a good job of maintaining verticality and just not being a net negative.
Okay. So that’s what we’re up against. How do we thread the needle? We’ve got lots of options, but here are the ones I think will work both specifically for this game, and for NCAA tournament games as well:

  1. Naadir is off-point:
    If there’s one glaringly obvious adjustment that needs to be made based on Saturday’s performance by Naa, it’s that he shouldn’t be trusted to be the primary defender on most point guards. This includes Marcus Smart, as well as anyone else he’ll face for the remainder of the year. When he’s locked in, he can do a decent job of containing smaller pgs off the bounce, but savvier and quicker guards will simply blow by him too often, and muscle ballers, like Smart, will simply bully him and post him up, especially without JoJo’s no-nos. For all of the grief we give Tharpe, though, he can be a good defender when used properly. In last year’s Big12 tournament, Tharpe was assigned to guard KSU star Rodney McGruder and did a really good job of it. McGruder, of course, was a catch and shoot guy that liked to come off multiple screens. Isn’t that Phil Forte minus 5ā€? Tharpe’s assignment vs WVU should have been Eron Harris (who only takes 24% of his shots at the rim, and 50% of his shots from beyond the arc), not Staten. Harris gets assisted on 75% of his made 3 pointers, which is the definition of a catch and shoot guy. Tharpe can be called upon to chase guys into the paint, and for a non-driver like Harris or Forte, that’s a net positive, versus a net negative against the Statens and Smarts of the world.

  2. Small ball:
    I don’t think we should be a small ball team all of the time, but for certain matchups it’s warranted. OSU is one of those matchups. They’re already playing pseudo-small ball, as Le’bryan Nash is an undersized, face-up 4, or a 3 without a J, depending on how you look at it. Point is, he likes to drive to the rim to score his points, thus, he should be defended more like a slasher than like a big. We have the right kind of guards to defend an undersized 4, and given how hard it’s been to come by, I’m sure Braennen Greene and Andrew White, especially, would appreciate the playing time. Both of these guys is solid enough to contain Nash on the drive, and each is a good enough shooter to help punish OSU for double teaming Black or Ellis in the post. Like I said, I wouldn’t make small ball the default like Good Ol’ Roy did last year, but there are going to be games ahead where that look will be the best (KSU and ISU, if we get past OSU).

  3. The Kansas Break:
    Although I’d never wish that we return Roy Williams over Coach Self, I actually think this year, both coaches would probably be happier with the other’s team. When UNC has been impressive, it’s been because of impressive defense. Offensively, they aren’t even a top 50 team, but defensively, they’re considerably ahead of KU and have played a strong schedule too. Offensively, KU is top 5, and Andrew Wiggins is probably the best transition finisher in the country. It’s probably too late to teach the Kansas Break proper to this group, but Self still needs to find more ways to get his team into transition more often. We aren’t a great half court team, so we should be attacking the rim within the first 10 seconds or so of the shot clock. We’re also not a great passing team, and while I have hope for this group moving forward, especially if Wayne Selden returns (as he should), part of the reason we have so many TOs is because we have a weak passing team playing Selfball (ie, passing around the perimeter in the half court). Are there principals of the secondary break that can be worked in for this group?

  4. Zone:
    Okay, everybody and their mother has brought up zone defense as a way to keep Black out of foul trouble and keep guards out of the paint, and everyone has an opinion about which zone. Self has tried 3-2 and it’s been pretty horrendous. I’ve seen 2-3 proposed (I wanna say this was Jesse Newell), as well as 1-3-1 by our own HEM. I favor triangle-and-2, and here’s why: The 3-2 has been awful for a few reasons: 1) Tharpe/Mason/Frankamp is too small to be in the front cornder of this zone.
    I get the temptation to try Wigs out at the top with his quickness and gaudy wingspan, but we don’t have a third guard long enough to complete the sort of front you need to run a 3-2 zone unless you have Selden play point on the other end. So far, that hasn’t happened. 2) The Perry Ellis problem. Just as he tends to be slow to react as a help defender he doesn’t anticipate well on the perimeter and the 3-2 requires him to work from the perimeter and short corners more. 3) The 3-2 doesn’t protect Black, as the 2 are the primary defenders of drivers at the short corners.
    1-3-1 could work with Black in the middle, but that one makes me feel especially queasy about rebounding, plus that makes Perry a big liability as, being slow to help, he’s also liable to be slow to trap and rotate as the sole baseline defender. I suppose you could put Wigs down there… I’m just not sure. @HighEliteMajor , I’m hoping you can scheme this one up for me, cause I really can’t wrap my mind around it with our current personnel.
    That brings us to the triangle-and-2. My reasons for favoring this are that we can still protect Black by having him as the man in the middle, but we can also maximize Wiggins’ on ball prowess, while being able to hide Tharpe, or at least, to mitigate the blow by factor. Tharpe can either be part of the man-to-man team and work on containing a shooter, or he can be put on the wing if we’re facing a poor shooter there, allowing Selden to be a man-to-man defender. But having said all of that, don’t try to zone OSU, or any other small ball team with 2 shooters. They have Forte, so there’s a natural role for Tharpe to play, and each of Ellis, Black, and Traylor can take turns guarding Kamari Murphy. We don’t need a true second big for Nash, so just man them up and go to work.

That’s what I’ve got for now. Whatever happens, I believe in the team that we have even without Embiid. We’ll find out what they’re made of this afternoon. RCJHGOKU!

Have Faith • Mar 13, 2014 12:42 AM

@konkeyDong It is a touch out of character, I know .. but at this time of the season, we have think positively, right?

I'm an optimistic skeptic.

@HighEliteMajor I can get behind that. After all, you're better of lucky than good.

Have Faith • Mar 12, 2014 02:29 PM

@HighEliteMajor Honestly, HEM, you're the last person I would have guessed to post that we have faith. Pretty much any time anyone else has suggested as much to you, you've put them down. Are we truly so desperate, then, or have your edges softened? :p

I Wonder as I Wander..... • Mar 12, 2014 02:26 PM

@nuleafjhawk I said from the preseason that I honestly thought we'd have a better chance reaching serendipity next season rather than this season. In late January, however, it looked like KU might just be able to get there. Unfortunately, the progress stalled out late in the conf. season, and Joel's injuries only compound that. I also think we can reach the Sweet 16 without him, but advancing beyond that becomes a serious challenge. If JoJo comes back for the Sweet 16, I say we're an 8, likely to advance to the Elite Eight, fully capable of reaching the Final Four, but unlikely to be cutting down the nets in April. But yeah, without him, it's hard to argue the 6.5 number.

@globaljaybird As for our seeding, even if we lose tomorrow, I honestly don't think the committee can keep us off the 2 line. 9 losses for a freshmen led team that played the toughest schedule in 20 years would still be an impressive feat. Victory tomorrow should lock that in beyond the shadow of a doubt. A 4 is completely unrealistic. I mean, you realize we're still being considered for a 1 seed, right? We aren't going to fall 2-3 lines under any circumstance, even if we lost to Texas Tech.

More Jaquan Lyle Fodder • Feb 26, 2014 10:56 PM

The real issue with Lyle is whether or not he'll be able to play at all. He's been long rumored to be an academic risk. Frankly, I think he's one worth taking given the spoils of depth we have all over the place right now. Lyle having to redshirt a year would be more of a blessing than a curse, essentially being a strong 2015 pick up, rather than a guy who won't get used a whole lot as a frosh.

That said, I have my doubts about Lyle really being able to do much even if he is eligible as a freshman. Although, as slayr points out, Self has given opportunities to freshmen this year, what choice does he really have? The only real upperclassmen are Tharpe and the walk ons. Lyle might challenge Mason or Frankamp for a role, but Tharpe's position is solidified in the world at this point.

The other reason that Lyle redshirting could be a real win for us is that Big Cliff REALLY wants to play with Lyle and that could solidify Alexander as a TAD or THRAD (I think as raw as he is, TAD wouldn't be unheard of with him). We'll see though.

Myles Turner to Visit KU • Feb 26, 2014 10:30 PM

is in some hot water about eligibility of player. One rumor is that Alexander has been cleared of any involvement. But that is a rumor. If Alexander were a doubtful, then reopening recruitment of Myles would make sense, whether or not Joel is jumping, or staying.

@jaybate 1.0 That's not really what I want to hear, but yeah, I saw that story too.

More generally speaking, however, I think I would rather Embiid stay than land Turner, especially if we don't reach the promised land this time around. Given who we're likely to have returning next year at the moment (everyone but Wigs, Black, and likely an AW3 transfer), plus who we're adding (Oubre and Big Cliff), I'd have to think we'll be easily one of the top 10 programs coming into next season. But if Embiid comes back that puts us no worse than top 2 (and the only ones who might be able to top us would be a Duke team returning Jabari Parker, as has been rumored). Frankly, even if Turner wound up at Duke, there wouldn't be a frontcourt in the country to match the talent and diversity of Embiid/Ellis/Alexander/Traylor and Lucas or Mickelson as needed. For that reason, and a whole host of others, I really think we're in better shape to win it all next year rather than this year. I hope I'm wrong, though (or that we just win back to back).

Myles Turner to Visit KU • Feb 26, 2014 07:28 PM

Didn't see this posted elsewhere, but according to zagsblog ↗ Turner is back on with KU, slated to visit on Senior Night. It was first reported here. ↗ The big question is, what does this mean with regards to Joel Embiid? As the zagsblog article points out, Self has told Turner straight up that he shouldn't bother if JoJo comes back. Is this hinting that JoJo is leaning in the NBA's direction or is it that Self is being over prepared? Either way, at this point, I was a little surprised that Turner would burn one of his visits with us. Thoughts?

Pre UT and KU Keys to the Game • Feb 21, 2014 10:25 PM

@drgnslayr

If I understand correctly, the conference has weekly conferences with officials where they review the previous games and they are given a preview of the upcoming games. I am sure the KU-Texas game and the lack of foul calls on Texas, particularly the hard fouls on Embiid, has been discussed, and hopefully, the officials will be on the lookout for plays/fouls that went uncalled in the previous game. The refs have the ability to set the tone of the game by how tightly/loosely they call it. One would hope that based on the previous game, the calls will not so one sided. Having said that, I realize that Texas fans are probably saying the same thing...:that's basketball fans for you :)

While I appreciate the 'that's basketball fans for you', even the Texas players stopped and waited for a whistle after Ridley threw down Embiid. The only ones in the venue that didn't seem to realize that a foul had been committed were the refs. That was pretty unbelievable to me. I don't usually blame officiating for wins or losses. Home teams, especially ones with rowdy crowds, almost invariably get the better share of favorable calls. That's par for the course. But that one was especially egregious, and not the sort of 'bang bang' play that could be missed at full speed, even if it's obviously a bad call on the replay.

Still, great teams don't put themselves in situations where they'll fall prey to bad calls. If we can avoid that tomorrow, I'll be happy with the officiating regardless.

We win at Baylor • Feb 05, 2014 03:44 PM

We can win when Wiggins has 3 points.. We can win when Embiid has 2 points.. We can win when Selden and Tharpe and even Ellis have off nights.

I'd amend that sentence to remove Tharpe's name, @bskeet. The one thing we haven't been able to do is win when Tharpe hasn't been effective. He doesn't have to score a lot (he was extremely good vs TCU, probably his best game of the season as a pg, despite going scoreless), but he does need to run the O, bring energy, and help the team maintain composure. As he's become better at doing those things, we've grown into a national title caliber team (how many of you, like me, were wondering when we'd actually get good back in Dec?). When Tharpe backslides, such as last Saturday, we really get exposed. It's going to be a tall order, but hopefully, he'll be able to play close to the top of his game for the rest of the year, or at least through six games starting in mid-March.

We win at Baylor • Feb 05, 2014 03:01 AM

The win was a beauty, but Embiid's knee being out of commission is a huge blow. Hopefully he get's back to 95% before the year is out. He should be able to get rested when WVU and TCU come to visit, but we'll likely need him in the Hawktagon. He and Tharpe, oddly enough, have really become the two most important players we have. Liked how Wigs stepped up and impacted the game even though his shooting was abysmal. We'll be needing that too.

What We Have Here Is a Failure to Compete • Feb 02, 2014 01:18 AM

Don't forget Selden on competitors. He didn't play great in the first half, but he really went after it in the 2nd. Still, disappointed with most of the rest of the team.

It's #1 Seed Or Bust: The Path To The Title • Jan 29, 2014 11:18 PM

I had some more time to search for the story about #2 seeds and SOS. Finally found it here ↗. It was Martin Manley, not Ken Pomeroy, but the methodology is sound. So again, let's worry about KU becoming the best team it can be in the remainder of the season, rather than the acute seed we've arrived at by the time March rolls around.

Does the best freshman PG play in Kansas? • Jan 29, 2014 07:50 PM

Ennis is without a doubt the best frosh PG in the country and possibly the best PG period (Marcus Flop has clearly spent the off-season working harder on his flop than his J, otherwise, I would say it's him).

Anyone would be a fool not to trade Mason for Ennis today, but long term, Mason may be the better investment. Ennis is almost guaranteed to OAD regardless of whether or not Syracuse reaches the promised land. I'm willing to bet in his Jr. and Sr. seasons (sorry, but Frank has next to no chance to reach the NBA because of his height alone, though if anyone can buck those odds, I'd bet its him), he can match and/or exceed those numbers (except for steals, unless he just makes a huge leap with that particular skill). So the real question becomes, is one season with Ennis here and now more valuable than the potential for what Mason can do in the future? Tough to say, given that we have no idea what the future makeup of the team will look like (The only ones I'd count on seeing for the 15-16 season are Frankamp, Lucas, Traylor, and Mickleson), but I'd put money on KU cutting down the nets at least once in Mason's tenure (whether that's this year, next, or with some completely unknown team).

It's #1 Seed Or Bust: The Path To The Title • Jan 29, 2014 07:11 PM

@ParisHawk Ken Pomeroy actually already does this" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/2013_ncaa_tournament_log5) ↗ and, unfortunately for HEM, his conclusion ↗ and his data show that being seeded #1 vs #2 does not have much of an affect on the actual outcomes of the best teams, meaning the best teams usually advance regardless of seeding (Which makes perfect sense. It's better to actually be good than to be told you are, after all). I believe he also had an article last year (though I haven't been able to find it in my few minutes of searching, and it could have been by another big data analyst) that shows that #2 seeds that played better SOSes tended to over achieve in the tournament compared to #1 seeds that played weaker SOSes (this was based on the average # of wins per seed over the tournament history. It's about 3.3 for #1s and 2.4 for #2s). So again, it's more important to be the stronger team than it is to achieve a particular seed. I would hope that's self-evident, but when statistics get involved, people tend to have the habit of putting the cart before the horse.

As for HEM's particular point about the win rate of #2 seeds in the finals, I'd point out that the win rate the #2 seeds enjoy is on par with the #1s when you consider how often the statistically favored team wins. What I mean by that is, regardless of seeding, teams that are rated higher in advanced statistical models (meaning better teams) win in the title game something like 72.5% of the time (based on KenPom.com ↗ ratings for since 2003), meaning 27.5% of the time, the title game features a statistical upset. This is right in line with the 72% win rate that HEM sites for #1 seeds. What HEM also calls remarkable in #2s having only won twice in the past 25 years, really isn't in light of that data either. After all, #2s posted wins in 2 of 7 meetings with #1s for a 28% win rate, which is again, directly in line with what would be expected if the remaining #1 in the title game is statistically the stronger team. The only thing that is a bit unusual about #2 seeds is that both times they've faced off against #3 seeds, they've lost. In the case of KU vs Syracuse, this was a statistical upset. In the case of UCLA vs Florida, it was not. Given the sample size of two, you can't make any meaningful statistical argument about the performance of #2s vs #3s.

Now I'm sure at this point, some will remain unconvinced and, for what ever reasons, stick to their guns about #1 seeds having a significantly easier path than #2 seeds in terms of winning a title. I don't reckon I'll be able to overturn their thinking. But I may be able to expose the flaw in it in a way that points out the error more starkly: There is a metric called PASE ↗ (performance against seed expectation) that simply rates how many wins a given seed will average in the tournament (the data in the link is from 2008, but the point will remain the same). Looking at the PASE data, the win rate for #7 seeds since the tournament expanded in 1985 has been nearly +60% that of #11 seeds, yet in that same span not one #7 seed has ever reached the Final Four, while three #11s have. If seeding truly does matter in regards to how easy a path a team has to the finals, then these results should be astounding. It would mean that if you want a chance to reach the Final Four, you're much better off being a #11 seed than a #7. Plain as day, right? It couldn't possibly just be that, as per the bell curve theory someone else mentioned, picking out and seeding the best teams at the top is easier than picking out who the best teams are in the middle and seeding them correctly, right? I mean, every other single digit seed has made it at least once, yet no #7s. So maybe #7 seeds are cursed, but I find it far more likely that the NCAA usually does a pretty good job of seeding the tournament, and seldom a great job, so sometimes better teams from smaller conferences slip more than they should, accounting for the reason that #11 seeds have the same Final Four rate as #6 seeds since 1985. But that's just me.

Jan 18 Post Game Roundup: KU vs OSU • Jan 20, 2014 12:43 AM

@HighEliteMajor
Ok. Did we employ one strategy against the press? Sure. But you're trying to set up a false dilemma here. You don't need more than one strategy to break a press any more than you need separate toasters for white and wheat bread, you just need to be able to execute the strategy. That isn't to say there's no room for variation, but that's tactics, not strategy. I don't disagree with your break down of the course of events as it's described. It's the same stuff I was going over. But what you're identifying as passivity is actually naivete. You identify where OSU was successful with the press, but neglect to mention specifically why.

The steals happened when guys made mistakes. Failure to execute isn't the same thing as failure to plan, nor the same thing as failure of strategy. When Tharpe picks up the ball before he's drawn trap defenders, then gets picked, it's not because the strategy failed. He picked up the ball too soon. That's not part of the strategy. The other guys either didn't see this or didn't react in time and there's a TO. Selden throwing the sideline pass to Embiid when he isn't looking is more on Embiid than Selden and again, not part of the strategy. Selden was impatient. Embiid was in the right general area, but didn't have his head up. Wigs not recognizing and attacking into defenders with numbers after breaking the press is a classic freshman mistake and not part of the strategy. Again, patience, recognition. Those are things he's struggled with throughout the year, and he was especially bad about in this game.

Experience makes the difference here. These issues go away as players get more reps. You also mention the PGs not attacking with the drive, but that's not true. There were a couple of times where Mason or Tharpe made a great drive over the half court line only to find out that their outlet(s) didn't advance with them and they wound up in a bad situation until a cutter could recognize and save the play. That's execution. And it's clear that lob passing back and forth in the back court wasn't the ONLY thing being done. In fact, Selden doesn't often throw lobs. He line drives. The rainbow passes tend to originate with Tharpe and Mason and are largely a product of practicality more so than anything else. At 5'10" or 5'11" each, they're the shortest guys on the court. If they're going to pass over a trap set by 6'2" and 6'3"+ guards, that's how they have to throw. And lob passing itself isn't inherently passive either. Forcing the defense to shift is aggressive. Driving the ball towards the trap, springing it, then passing out, even lob passing, is part of a strategy. It's attacking.

Mixing up the general strategy (passing over the press), however, is irrelevant. When KU executed, they were successful as evidenced by the times they were able to get easy buckets, and even the times they simply set up and ran the half court offense. It isn't merely luck. It's what's supposed to happen. So no, I can't swallow any notion that this is generally poor strategy on Self's part unless you can come up with something more convincing. Now, that's not to say I'm not open to some of your criticism. Particularly, I strongly agree with #6. The easiest way to break a press is to get the ball moving before the D can get set up and KU was entirely too lax with getting the ball inbound when they should have known the press was coming. On #5, I'm not sure this team has the length to skip pass, but it's doable. #4 is irrelevant if you simply execute with the 2 guard front. Draw a trap and there's always someone open. That's about as fundamental as it gets. #3 I flat out dispute as true, and I likewise would put a Benjamin down that if you call into Hawktalk this week and ask if Tharpe and Mason have the green light to drive against the press, Self would give you a resounding yes and tell you that's something that they work on.

As for the first two (don't know why I went reverse order, but here we are), these would be nice wrinkles to add. In fact, I'd even add to #1 that it could be advantageous to put Embiid in the 3 position of the press break especially when Wigs is in, but I have a different argument for you altogether for these. I've talked a lot about lack of experience, but really that phrase means two things. KU is the 5th youngest team in the country so it's fair to say, they don't have a lot of experience playing at the college level. Even Tharpe, the most veteran guy on the team, averaged sub 20 minutes per game in the year prior. So yeah, guys are getting thrown into a lot of situations that are unfamiliar. But you're incredulous, and rightly so, that these kids wouldn't be familiar with attacking a 2-2-1 press. Given that most of them (save Embiid and Traylor) have been playing competitive ball for more than half their lives, I'd be a fool to disagree with that assessment. Still, as a team, they've only been playing together a couple of months and they still make mistakes that show exactly that. The very first TO Selden had in the 2nd half wasn't because of the press. It was the very first possession, in fact, where Perry was posted with great position, Selden had the passing angle, recognized, and fired the ball to Perry. It's difficult to tell from the camera angle if Selden threw the ball out of reach or if Ellis didn't go after it quickly enough, but what should have been as easy a finish at the rim as you can get became a horrible mistake. Now I doubt you'd try to argue to me that posting and feeding with a lead pass from the wing is bad or passive strategy, but this is essentially what you're telling me about Self's press break and again, I'm forced to disagree without a more compelling argument.

I've digressed quite a bit here, so back to my broader point. These guys haven't played together a ton and likewise, Self hasn't had a ton of time to cram everything in. Admittedly, our press break strategy is the simplest and most straightforward implementation of a press break you can get, but I still disagree that it's in any way passive. It would be nice to add these wrinkles (points 1 and 2), but, as we've seen, the guys still haven't mastered the basic implementation of the strategy (draw the trap, reverse the ball, look for easy outlets, repeat), so I'm not sure how practical it is to try and add screening and cutting on to the existing plan unless and until they look comfortable in the first place. The lack of execution that I've been stressing doesn't exist because these kids haven't seen this stuff before. It doesn't exist because they don't know what they're supposed to do. It exists because they haven't run this stuff together so much that it's become second nature. Now, you can argue that that's what practice is for, but there's two problems there: practice is no substitute for game time, and there's an opportunity cost for focusing on one area over another. Would you rather work shoring up our 3pt shooting (we're averaging 40% now in Big 12 play) or work on the press break? What about defensive rotations that were so loose through the nonconf schedule? You've seen the same improvement I have there, haven't you? So while I don't disagree that he press break is lagging, I think that's a matter of necessity more than anything else. There simply isn't enough time in the year to cover all of the warts on a team. That's why freshmen (as in multiple) led title teams have been the exception (2012), not the rule (pretty much the rest of NCAA history). So will we likely see more of the press as conf play continues? Sure, but that's to our benefit, not our detriment. Even if we pick up a loss or two because of it, getting the reps will make the team better at execution, and those passive mistakes that are making your head ache now will be fewer and further between. Trust.

Jan 18 Post Game Roundup: KU vs OSU • Jan 19, 2014 06:36 PM

@HighEliteMajor Timefor anotherclassic HEM/kD disagreement :) On point 2, yes, we didn't do great against the press, however, lack of preparation wasn't the problem this time. Lack of preparation means no plan and/or no practice. Since neither of us get to actually sit in on KU practices, neither of us is truly able to say beyond conjecture exactly what gets practiced, but I think it's safe to assume that at some point over the winter break, press breaking was worked on to some extent. And just watching the first few possessions of the second half, it becomes immediately clear that guys knew what they were supposed to be doing, but failed to execute. You say the plan was to passively pass over the press. I'm a little surprised to hear that from you, honestly. The first time this team struggled with a press on the year, you delivered an excellent treatise on how to break the press, which included passing over it. There was nothing passive about the tactic. Yes, guys dribbled toward the trap areas, but that's what you do if you're going to pass over a press. You can't pass the ball away until you draw the trap defenders towards you, and you're not going to draw trap defenders towards you without moving towards the trap areas. Simply launching the ball down the court is going to lead to live-ball turnovers and run-outs. I suppose you can criticize the strategy, but it was one that, if you didn't advocate it yourself, you at least admitted its viability.

Now, we don't get a good look at the first pressing possession, at least from CBS. Joel's block on Nash leads to a shot clock violation. The camera actually catches Smart signalling his team for the press, but the possession itself gets lost between camera cuts. There's a steal in the back court and a layup from Nash. I'll chalk that one up to caught off guard. The following possession, the guys move to their press-break positions. Tharpe advances the ball, then passes to Selden. Selden moves towards the trap, the trappers start to move, then Selden reacts to pass back to Tharpe. Unfortunately, he's a little antsy and takes a stutter-step before he makes the pass and gets called for the travel. In the next possession, Selden gets the ball in the same position, finds Embiid on the sideline on the look ahead, makes the pass and it leads to a beautiful alley-oop to Ellis. And on the next, Selden recognizes the same situation, but this time passes while Embiid isn't looking. The pass whizzes by and, despite his fantastic length and speed, Embiid is unable to make the save back to his teammates.

I could go on from here, but I think the point has been made. There was a clear plan. When the plan was executed, it did what it was supposed to do and led to easy buckets. When it wasn't, it led to turnovers. Luckily, most of them were dead-ball, but either way, it quickly got OSU back in the game. Now, I suppose you could make the case that poor execution of a plan is lack of preparation, but in my opinion, it's just lack of experience. Practice as much as you want, but there is no substitute for the real thing. Selden didn't respond well, but he knew how he was supposed to respond. Mason and Tharpe both had instances of where they dribbled too far into the traps or their outlets moved too late or too far and wound up in trouble, but regardless, they seemed to know what they were supposed to do. Again, if you want to make the argument that passing over the press isn't the right way for this team to approach the issue, fine. But they had a plan and were clearly instructed in how to execute it. Self can teach them what to do, but he can't very well jump in and run the point himself.

Jan 18 Post Game Roundup: KU vs OSU • Jan 19, 2014 03:59 AM

A very good look at Smart's bad acting ↗