@justanotherfan
Ah, great to hear you back at the hypothesis positing and testing bench. This is quite thought provoking and fun.
Let's see, if I understand you correctly this time out, you are posing a couple of hypotheses.
First there is the "Cal is better at keeping up with trends" hypothesis.
Second, there is "The Max Deals" Hypothesis.
Of the two, the scientist in me vastly prefers the second hypothesis, because it is rather more empirically verifiable.
But to minimize my bias and in the interest of systematic inquiry and love of our Jayhawks, I will test both.
Let's see, lets go with the "Cal is authentically better at keeping up with trends" hypothesis.
This one is very, very, very tough to test. Personal trendiness is very elusive to rank or quantify.
I mean, I can say Cal appears trendier than Coach K, but I am not sure how I can say he is trendier than Kurtis Townsend, who recruits for KU. And just between you and me, Cal seems like a completely unathletic, relatively un-with-it little dweeb compared to Self, when I see them both letting their hair down. And, frankly, Bill seems a helluva lot more fun to be around off the floor. But maybe Cal is trendier on the floor.
But really, neither of these guys are exactly Denzel Washington, or Brad Pitt, in terms of outward personal trendiness, are they?
How about Cal versus Kevin Ollie? Why do I have a feeling that Cal is not quite as cool as Kevin? Why do I have a feeling that Cal does not quite grasp the Urban Dictionary quite as well as Kevin Ollie? Why do I get the feeling that maybe Kevin understands and speaks the language of the hood urban and a leeeeeeeeeetle flipping better than Cal? But Kevin flashing a ring and his trendiness both did not net 5 Mickey D's after last season and is not leading Cal this season.
So: I don't really think Trendiness alone, or even decisively, or even to considerable degree is driving this. For one reason, if trendiness, especially authentic trendiness were the key to recruiting, then basketball coaches would long, long, long ago have been naturally selected toward incredibly trendy fellows and as we look around the coaching ranks, while there are certainly a lot of men that stay younger than they might otherwise stay, while coaching, we are not seeing Denzel and George Clooney attracted to the coaching ranks in significant numbers.
But due to the degree of difficulty related to measurement of the authentic trendiness hypothesis, I must not dismiss it out of hand. I must give it another try.
If Cal were authentically better at keeping up with trends, we would probably expect to find a lot of players posting about how impressed they were with Cal's knowledge of contemporary music, movies, clothing, designers, cars and other examples of youth culture, especially of the youth sub cultures that these players come from.
I googled the following: "What do players think of John Calipari?" Many links came up, but the first ten pages of links down I found not one link that mentioned about how trendy Cal's knowledge was, of how great his knowledge of youth and popular culture.
But I did find one really remarkable quote about what makes Calipari such a successful recruiter that really had nothing to do with Cal's trendiness, or lack there of. And I really think it is worth calling your attention to. This was a
"Calipari's honesty with his players transcends his own ambition, and by doing so, he opens up a huge pipeline to other players with NBA aspirations. Players no longer need William Wesley to tell them that Coach Calipari will deal fairly with them. His reputation is already known, already understood."
http://www.aseaofblue.com/2010/6/23/1531891/kentucky-basketball-john-caliparis â
What particularly interests me about this quote and article includes;
1.) it makes no mention of Cal's trendiness;
2.) it says that the most important attraction of Calipari is that players trust that he will not hold them back from going pro; and
3.) players used to need William Wesley to convince them that Coach Cal would not hold them back.
In attempting to downgrade the important of World Wide Wes to Calipari's attraction to players, the obviously sympathetic article to Calipari, calls attention to notion that Cal's attraction to players is a kind of trust transferred to Cal by World Wide Wes.
So: the obvious question is: why did players trust World Wide Wes, and why do they no longer need to trust World Wide Wes, but can instead trust John Vincent Calipari?
But I digress.
Oops, let me digress just one bit further on this. I found an even older story about Cal written when he first came to Memphis that goes into Cal's personality traits and into his family and so on. It portrays a man who is decidedly NOT trendy by Cal's own self-description.
http://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/john-calipari-the-man-of-the-hour/Content?oid=1116753 â
So let's consider "The Max Deals" hypothesis, which I intuitively have a lot of hope for. It seems to lend itself to empirics, or at least the hope for them with some digging.
The nub of the max deals hypothesis is that Rose, Wall, and Cousins, plus Walker as a bun in the oven soon to be baked, constitute a series of high profile players with such huge NBA contracts that Cal can point to and say something like, "See you can be rich like that if you play for me."
I like this hypothesis, because it even attempts to account for KU's Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid going 1 and 3 last season, and Self not getting 5 Mickey Ds afterwards, by saying that see, here, KU with those two and Ben Mac and so on could be on the same track a few years down the road. This has the incentive of hope. :-)
But I see a problem here. Do Rose, Wall and Cousins really overwhelm the Max Deals of Duke, Syracuse, UConn, UNC, Louisville, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, in each case by a factor of 10 Mickey Ds to significantly less than 5 Mickey Ds; that is by a factor of TWO?
Now I think the Max Deal Hypothesis maybe holds against KU, But I am not sure that if one goes back starting Rose in 2008, or say rounding it to 2005, if Cal's MAX Deals exceed by a factor of two the max deals of say, Duke, or UNC, or Uconn, or Syracuse, or even UCLA and Ohio State.
I have to plead some inadequacy of memory here and request that you, or someone else, quantify that Cal's Max Deals exceed by a factor of two all of the Max deals of these other programs.
But I will tell you this.
If you are right about Cal's Max deals exceeding all these other programs Max deals, then I think that if we combine that with Cal no longer needing World Wide Wes to assure them that he will not hold them back, then we may be on to something and it may be worth forming a new hypothesis including both.
Rock Chalk!