Most importantly, to begin, we are 2-2 in our last four games. In those four games, we have shot 42 three pointers (three of which came in scramble time vs. KSU). Approximately just 10 per game. In the last four games, Perry Ellis has played at his peak. The best Perry Ellis we can expect. But, again, we have gone just 2-2 in those games.
I will start out here by saying that teams have clearly tried to guard our perimeter better. No doubt there.
But it is a complete myth, a complete fiction, that we should be paralyzed on the perimeter because of it.
Do not accept this narrative. It is intellectually dishonest. It is simply not true. More precisely, it is lazy. To accept this narrative -- being brutally honest here -- is a result of ignorance. Simply not knowing. If you are one that says, "Wow, we can't shoot three pointers because other teams are guarding the perimeter more closely", well, you simply don't understand basketball offense. Challenge yourself.
I know it is easier to accept the current storyline. I know it is easier to believe that we are doing all we can. But we aren't. The fact is, Coach Self isn't even trying to get three point looks. This became quite obvious to me in the recent TCU game -- thus, my view that this season died on that date. It is over.
If we are to believe that we can't score from the perimeter because teams guard it, we are thus always at the whim of the defense -- which again, is not true. Coaches are at the whim of the defense when they have no answer, when they are outcoached, or when they refuse to answer. In this case, we are here because our coach refuses to answer.
There are no teams we are playing that post five players on the three point stripe.
If you somehow accept Self's game plan, I would reiterate, that with Perry Ellis playing at his peak, we have gone 2-2. That's two losses. Perry Ellis has scored 19, 23, 24, and 29 points in the last four games. We are 2-2. We have shot just 42 three pointers in the four games. We are 2-2. And in the wins, we were up only 6 with three plus minutes to go, at home, to TCU; and we were up just one point, at home, against Texas, with 2:30 to play. Both games were in doubt. We have had no spectacular halves of basketball that were inspired this season by our perimeter game. We have been pedestrian on the offensive end.
The only times that we have been spectacular offensively is when we have taken a large majority of your shot attempts from the perimeter. That is undeniable.
Three point shooting and the perimeter game are not panaceas, they are not sure things -- but they are the best path for this team, offensively, as constructed.
Perry Ellis has become the focus of our offense. That focus has been more around Ellis driving the ball, as opposed to post feeds. Yesterday, in 13 attempted drives to the basket, Ellis scored just 3 times, and was fouled on another 3 attempts. On the other 7, he missed 3 times and either turned the ball over (3 times), or had it knocked away (we got the ball back.
If we are relying upon this in March, we are in deep, deep trouble.
As an alternative, I ask you to look at the Wichita St./UNI game for evidence. I was able to watch WSU play yesterday. It is one of many examples from around the country. A team with vast perimeter talent, focusing on its strengths.
Wichita St. shot 24 three point shots, making 11. It was a beautiful offense to watch. And UNI was guarding the perimeter with everything it had. The difference is, WSU has a perimeter based offense that created not only open looks on the perimeter through screening and spacing, but opportunities inside as a result. They rarely had two guys in the paint, near to each other -- very little lane clogging as happens in the high/low. Bit guys would screen out high, and roll to the hoop creating opportunities. It was smooth.
Within Wichita St.'s offense, there were repeated screens on the perimeter. Four players were routinely on the perimeter. When a ball went into the post, WSU regularly had players positioned on the three point line for the kick out. And when players drove, WSU always had someone available on the three point line for the pass out of the drive.
Take some time. Watch WSU's offense. Then come and tell me that we are impotent in the face of teams guarding the perimeter. WSU was able to get and create three point attempts on the perimeter, even when guarded closely. And Wichita St. has a better at the rim FG percentage than we do running that offense.
If you look at the ISU/KSU game yesterday, ISU got 27 three point attempts. Do you think KSU wasn't guarding the perimeter against ISU, and wasn't trying to take away three point attempts against ISU?
We have shot just 42 three pointers in the last four games. We are now 17th in three point percentage in the nation. We are now 276th in three point attempts. It is simple math.
The key is getting multiple attempts. That allows a team to work closer to its averages. Just because we go 1-8 doesn't mean we should shoot them. As we seen many time before, we can go 6-8 in the next 8 attempts.
The only reason we aren't shooting them, is because coach Self has decided that we won't shoot them -- by word or deed. In the latter case, by refusing to adjust our attack to create those opportunities, in the face of teams guarding the perimeter.
As I've said repeatedly, we simply do not scheme to get three point looks -- other than the set play here and there. We did this once Saturday.
The reason were aren't getting as many looks in the last four games is the combination of Self wanting threes shot within his offense or only when unguarded, teams guarding the perimeter more closely, and Self doing nothing to scheme to get three point looks. It is a path chosen by coach Self. And it is stopping this team for maximizing its offensive potential.
It's easy to be excited by Ellis' play. I absolutely love his aggressiveness. He's doing terrific. But this isn't about Perry. It's about the best offensive attack for this team.
We may be excited by Perry Ellis' game yesterday, right? But we shouldn't be. Our effective field goal percentage yesterday was the 6th worst ever for a coach Self team at Kansas. Repeating -- our 6th worst ever for a coach Self team at Kansas.
Ellis received the ball on a post feed six times where he attempted shots yesterday. He scored 2 times, missed 4, and was not fouled on any attempts. Further, our post feed attempts to the other post players resulted in zero baskets. None. So that's four points on post feeds.
Yesterday, above all, Ellis relied on whistles. The ultimate Fool's Gold. Ellis was fouled on three drives, one fast break, and a couple of scramble/put back plays -- he was 10-12 from the line. Not something I want to bank this team's future one.
All this when we have what coach Self called the best perimeter shooting team since he's been at Kansas.
And for the record, Perry Ellis was not nearly as effective as it might appear. Ellis was 9/21 from the field. He shot just 40% at the rim. Volume scoring. Here's my breakdown:
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On Drives: Ellis made 4, missed 3, turned the ball over 3 times, and lost another we recovered. He was fouled four times for free throws. One of the drives he got blocked off the first tip, and another was a fast break where he was fouled. This element resulted in just 50% total effectiveness based on attempts, in combination with free throws.
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On Post Feeds: Ellis made 2, and missed 3.
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On Scrambles/Follow Shots: Ellis made 2, missed 2, and was fouled once for free throws.
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Lobs: He got one lob, on a set play, for a dunk.
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Jumpers: Ellis was one of two, making a 15 footer, and missing a three.
If you balance out the numbers, Ellis scored on just under 50% of his overall efforts, between baskets and free throws. He worked very hard yesterday.
However, balance that 50%, at two points a pop, against three pointers at our team rate of 40%, and it's no contest. It is demonstrative of the misguided nature of Self's offense this season. Perry Ellis gets 29 points (27 related to near the basket efforts), and we have the 6th lowest effective field goal percentage game in Self's tenure.
Coach Self talks of Fool's Gold, as if it only applies to perimeter shooing -- he had his famous rant after the Texas Tech win where we went a tremendous 11-20 from three point range, and blew out a TT team on its home floor, where it has beaten ISU, Baylor, and OSU. Remember those days? When we did shoot three pointers? But it was the ridiculous Fool's Gold comment that set this all in motion.
It was the follow-up to the Utah game. Self uttered "Fool's Gold" on our television for all to see. That after an amazing first half against Utah were we torched Utah with a blazing perimeter game, jumping out to 20 point lead. Then, we saw that lead evaporate when Self dictated a return to the pound it inside mantra. After that game, I detailed the possessions of the second half disaster. Horrific. All Self-made.
And Self acts as if missing perimeter shots is the only risk in the NCAA tourney -- which is what the Fool's Gold stuff alludes to. The "you can't count on it" thing.
Of course, we have seen our inside game go awry. Meaning, we can miss close shots just as easy as outside shots. Perhaps more so with this team. It happens all the time. It's part of the game, missing shots that is. We've missed them all season. We missed close shots against Stanford. They were big, and contested them. We have a team that doesn't score well inside. Heck, against KSU, Self again lamented the fact of how we got close shots, and that we missed bunnies.
Jesse Newell shot me a tweet after Self's press conference --
Who out there can't see this?
So is Self misguided? Kind of. Meaning, if you have a team that scores reliably at the rim, then I think I go with coach Self. The "at the rim" percentages of 65% or so on post ups. But folks, this isn't that team. This team cannot score reliably at the rim. It certainly can't score on post feeds. Now, our last real hope of improvement (Cliff) may be on the shelf.
If we continue down this path, we will be placing our season in the hands of Traylor, Lucas, and Mickelson. By contrast, would you rather place it in the hands of Mason, Greene, Oubre, Selden, Graham, and Ellis from outside?
It comes down to a simple item. What's the better risk with this team? That's all.
Coach Self has chosen the wrong path.
Perhaps the Fool's Gold comments are because coach Self feels threatened. Perhaps coach Self felt deep in the the bowels of his soul that if this team were able to achieve and win from the perimeter, it would threaten the very fabric and foundation of what he holds dear. It would threaten the core of what he teaches. If a team could actually win like this, the pound it inside philosophy would be forever threatened. The concept that attempting to score inside is always better than attempting to score outside. His "my way or the highway" way of winning would be compromised.
Or perhaps he's just hard-headed.
How can a man in Self's position see other teams win in different ways, with different schemes, and be so diametrically opposed to change? Even with a team that just can't do it his way?
Whatever. I don't care.
What I care about is the destruction of something I hold very dear. And it is occurring right before my eyes. It is not only sad, but it is unnecessary.
This team is a Final Four team. This team is a National Championship team. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. This team has high level talent. Kansas can win the national championship.
We know the post-script to this season, That we weren't really that good anyway. That it was coach Self who got this team to its peak. That this team really overachieved. That we were "just so young." That this team didn't have a true big man, and thus couldn't achieve greatness.
Or now, that we lost Cliff. Like last season. We lost Embiid. Meanwhile, we totally ignore that we do not play to our team's offensive talents (this season) and that we continued to play the same pound it inside game last March without Embiid -- nearly losing to EKU and losing to Stanford. See any similarities?
It's all "crap" -- using one of Self's favorite words. It is crap.**