This may be the most talented team that has set foot in AFH, from top to bottom. If coach Self departs from his prior formula for dishing out minutes and tries to keep everyone happy, this could threaten this team's ability to reach its peak. Self needs to decide on his rotation, stick with it, and make changes only when a piece appears broken. Reaching its peak means everyone doesn't play. That decision time is fast approaching given our schedule.
What we’ve seen so far is a potluck. We’ve seen the “Sure 6” – Tharpe, Ellis, Wiggins, Embiid, Mason, and Selden – get consistent rotation minutes. But that’s it.
The rest, including starter Tarik Black, have scrapped for the rest of the playing time. Self has been very unpredictable so far regarding minutes. Against Iona, six guys played significantly, and only two others had 10 minutes. That was Iona. Look at Duke -- only 7 guys with double digit minutes. White hardly played at all - 4 minutes. Greene got 8 minutes. Self played Frankamp 0 minutes vs. Duke, 10 minutes vs. Iona and 12 minutes vs. Towson. Traylor has basically been played only when needed – 13, 10, and 12 minutes the last three games. Black's role is fewer minutes due to fouls and Embiid emerging. Lucas isn't a factor.
Coming in, most thought Self’s rotation will likely be a bit wider. I had predicted and 8+ rotation – 8 guys, with a 9th getting 10-13 minutes. I had suggested the “+” guy would be Mason. That’s more than the last two seasons. Right now, the rotation has been tighter than that. The “Sure 6”, and then from game-to-game, the balance of the minutes have been spread out. And those minutes have barely been rotation level minutes (10-15 based on your preference – I like 13).
Self said going into the season opener that he wouldn’t be as generous with the minutes, and he hasn’t. But he has spread it around. Landen Lucas is really the only guy that hasn’t been a part of that. He got some well deserved scraps in blowout time vs. Towson, but that’s really it.
Harnessing all of this talent is coach Self's job. But management might be the tougher job. It may seem easier to coach with tons of talent, but I actually think it might be easier with the lines of talent more clearly drawn. Here, literally, you would have a good argument for nearly every scholarship player being in the primary rotation. Thus coach Self's challenge.
How does he keep everyone happy? How does he take 12 personalities that want to play, that really deserve to play, and get some to the accept the reality that the sheer numbers will eventually create? That’s the management thing I was referring to. But he must do a couple of things, regardless of feelings and possible discontent.
First and foremost, he can’t fight reality. And he can’t fight what he knows to be true. He has to choose. He has to make choices, and stick with those choices, to permit this team to reach its peak. The more the same guys play together, and know their roles, the better we’ll be. We have a young team. The longer he delays, the more he jeopardizes the assent of this team.
Second, he cannot let his concerns about possible transfers, keeping players happy, and trying to be fair, distract from that purpose. Again, because to do so will compromise the ultimate level that this team can ascend to this season. This is a possible national title season. It’s right there. We are clearly a title favorite, together with a handful of other teams. As Rocky said vs. Clubber Lang, “go for it.”
So what should Self do?
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Start Embiid now. No doubt, he needs to simply put this young man out on the floor to start the game, and play him the maximum minutes he can considering conditioning, fouls, and situation.
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Make Black the first player off the bench, but let it be a battle between he and Traylor. Black does seem to have a pretty good motor, and may do better coming off the bench. But I have seen nothing to show me that Black is better than Traylor, or the other way around.
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Choose between White and Greene. One of these guys will be an invaluable member this team going forward. Just make the choice. They are not exactly the same player, but they have much the same skill set. As close as any two players on the team. Two cannot play rotation minutes with Wiggins here. This is a tough choice. The one that you don’t choose might transfer. The choice between the two could be delayed a bit. When Greene 8 minutes to White’s 4 vs. Duke, I thought, uh oh. White’s in trouble. Then Green apparently got in trouble. What we saw from White vs. Iona is exactly what you should expect from White. What we saw of Greene vs. Duke is exactly what we should expect from Greene. Hard choice. But there is not room for two in the rotation. And the chosen one needs to play. Notice how I did not make a choice.
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Put Frankamp on the bench. Just do it. He’s there for emergencies. He’s there if someone gets hurt. He’s there for that road game at College Station when Self gets ticked off at a rotation guy. But it is obvious that the total package he brings does not exceed any other perimeter player.
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Do not close your mind to starting Mason. I know, I’m a Tharpe guy. I’ve been referred to as being “in love with Tharpe.” I am a Tharpe guy. But I am also now a Mason guy. If coach Self thinks this team is better with Mason, which he has hinted at, then do not shy away from the choice. Self has mentioned how we play faster with Mason. That is obvious. Self may view the tandem as just that, and no reason to favor Mason over Tharpe. But if that’s his gut, then he should do it and do it as soon as possible.
As we've discussed for many years, it is survival of the fittest. I love seeing everyone play. I enjoy seeing each guy get their time. But the only thing that matters this season is a National Championship. Every move, every thought, every decision, should be done with that in mind. That will not make everyone on the roster happy. But it’s what has to happen.