I decided to repost this in a new thread because the "sucked" thread's name really bothers me. I think lots of fans probably won't even read that one, since it is premised on faulty logic designed to find flaws without solutions. So, here is my take on the wholesale attacks on HCBS based on the fact that he has, boo hoo, lost so many games in the Elite 8:

For everyone saying things like, “the 2-5 record speaks for itself” please consider that it is not so unlikely that it is just a statistical outlier. If we had a 50% chance of winning each game, the Self record could have occurred 21 times out of 128. Unlikely, but not impossible. That is about a 1 in 6 chance.

In perhaps more familiar terms, you would have a 1 in 4 chance to flip a coin and come up heads twice in a row, and 1 in 8 for it to be 3 times in a row. So, the statistical probability of this type of record is between that of 2 heads and 3 heads in a row.

Anyone who ever flipped coins knows you can have streaks far greater than 3 in a row without something being wrong with the coin. Same with roulette: people lose really big thinking a black or red streak of 5, 8, or even 10 in a row means something about the wheel’s characteristics.

For anyone to conclude that Bill’s record in EEs is indicative of a flaw is just simple-minded at best and willfully ignorant at worst. Just consider the fact that if we made about 7 more baskets in a total of about 3 tournaments (especially a rifldiculous number of bunnies in a couple years), the record would be reversed (remember, the final scores sometimes reflect desperation fouls at the end).

A wholesale change of coaching philosophy is not mandated by the fact that players miss some shots, or stumble, or make a couple of dumb mistakes.

Lighten up people. Bill’s record reflects more opportunities because of greater coaching ability, not lesser due to unpredictability of outcomes.

@mayjay Appreciate the approach. I will say that the analysis not only involves the record, but also the performance of our team. I saw a post with our offensive output in each Elite Eight game, as well as the output of prior Bill Self teams. It's pretty stark. A number with the lowest offensive output for the season, if I recall. Further, there is also the "second game of the weekend" issue. This relates to how a coach has his team ready to play on a short turnaround vs. an unfamiliar opponent.

This is not the roulette wheel, or a flip of the coin. It's basketball. It's not a game of chance. There is an element of chance/luck to be sure, but it's just one of many elements.

We must also be sure not to view the Elite Eight/2nd game of the weekend record in a vacuum.

One might also say that Bill Self's overall record speaks for itself, the conference title streak speaks for itself, etc. They certainly do.

Bill Self owns the tourney issues. I don't hear him running from it. We saw him change quite a bit this season. My guess is he's going to self-reflect even further. And it's nothing winning two titles over the next five years won't cure, or even one in the next few seasons.

My view is we are in this together. Meaning Bill Self is one of us. He's a brother. He's not someone to be cast aside because we may have certain issues, with certain things.

To critique tourney performance is much different than calling for his head. I think that is what a clear majority have done with their comments -- critique and discuss. Some have gotten a bit irrational (just a few), but after a big tourney loss, extending a little rope (not to hang themselves, but to permit venting) is probably reasonable.

@mayjay Bill Self is the man, according to LaGerald Vick and that's good enough for me!

@HighEliteMajor said:

This is not the roulette wheel, or a flip of the coin. It’s basketball. It’s not a game of chance. There is an element of chance/luck to be sure, but it’s just one of many elements.

Absolutely agreed. The variables in bb are much different, and I should have acknowledged that in my post. I was only responding to the posts that expressly said the numbers alone had meaning.

Finding other reasons for losses is different. I happen to think there are different reasons each year, not a single overriding reason that causes Self to "fail." I specifically reject the "pucker" complaint. The players may miss because they try too hard, but the coaches aren't shooting.

For example, this year against Ore we kept feeding it inside despite a shot bocker deluxe having a feeding frenzy. I think we should have slowed down in the first 2 minutes rather than sped up because too many players were hurrying too much. I would have called more plays for Svi, who was their 4th threat to defend. I would have tried two bigs at once just for awhile when Josh went out. I might have pulled Josh in the first half on his first foul because he has a tendency to get too amped and out of control.

Maybe I would have tried all these things and lost by 40. I don't know, however, if Bill tries things and the players don't execute, so I can't say as some have that he doesn't adjust. Sometimes the adjustments don't work.

The fact remains, though, that less than 10 missed shots over 5 EE losses are the difference between this conversation and an entirely different one. And that number can indeed reflect the luck of bouncing balls rather than the coach.

Does anyone know (or care) what Gonzaga fans blamed Mark Few's curse of the Sweet 16 on?

He had only reached the Elite 8 once before this year with 6 apparences in the Sweet 16.

This is in 17 total apparences before this year.

@mayjay It's just the annual pity party. A bunch of "super" fans melting down because of a loss. Unfortunately KU wasn't good enough to overcome a terrible shooting night. Nothing more, nothing less.

Bill Self is one of four finalists for Naismith Coach of the year. That's clearly a guy who should be fired.

@HighEliteMajor said:

This relates to how a coach has his team ready to play on a short turnaround vs. an unfamiliar opponent.

Just a thought about this, because it has been mentioned a lot. Does this reflect a flaw in short-turnaround coaching by Self but his 12-5 record in the second round with that same turnaround does not mean the opposite?

I guess I am not willing to make very firm conclusions or find patterns where these things are based on info so highly selective.

@mayjay You can say it's a statistical outlier, but when it's the same issue that's popped up in 5 of Self's 7 E8 appearances, that's not an outier, that's a trend and the 2004 and 2012 E8 games become the outliers.

@dylans That poor shooting night happens just about every time KU reaches the E8 though. Self and his staff need to figure out why this is so instead of just going "oh well, we'll get them next year."

@Texas-Hawk-10 Could be the players want to be the ones who get coach over that hump and out the pressure on themselves?

They get tight. They get "puckered" (which seems to be the word of choice around here). They try to hard to get coach the next Final 4.

Look at how they have played this past season. Once Number 13 was wrapped up it seemed the guys were a little more relaxed. You hear them and coach talk about how non of them want to be the team that snaps the streak of conference titles and they put that pressure on themselves.

Maybe the same can be said about the players wanting it so bad for coach in the Elite 8 that they put the pressure on themselves.

And once shots stop falling you tense up a little more to try to get the next one in and so on.

@Texas-Hawk-10 said:

Self and his staff need to figure out why this is so instead of just going “oh well, we’ll get them next year.”

Here is the thrust of my complaint: you are setting up a straw argument. Yes, Bill needs (as does every coach) to try to figure out how to be more successful.

But, no, there is no evidence that your post contains any information about what he does or doesn't do in accomplishing his job. Yet your last line seems to reflect a sense of triumph that you have it figured out and that he doesn't even try.

Question: overall, how do most teams fare in shooting percentage in the regional finals compared to their regular seasons (not the early rds b/c those are distorted by playing much lower seeds early)? This has to be analyzed over several seasons to control for rules changes, etc, And how well do EE winners perform than losers?

I suspect two things: first, that more often than not, shooting percentages of most teams go down because teams are facing generally better defensive teams as they advance than they likely faced in most regular season games. And second, that more often than not, the winning team has a 5 to 10 FG % advantage over losing teams in the EE game.

There is a common cause if my suspicions are correct: losing teams shoot more poorly than they have done previously.

That does not mean that all those teams have coaches who do not know how to prepare.

@mayjay I posted this in the thread that brought me to this site earlier this morning.

"Complaining about a problem without a solution is whining" President T. Roosevelt

I had this quote in my classroom and locker rooms through my time.

I had a junior player come up to me in my 3rd as a coach and ask me why a freshman was getting more time at practice with the 1s. At first I tried to tell him that this other kid was a better player without saying that to him. Then I remember this quot, and I asked him if he knew why and what he could do to change that? I asked him to come up with a solution by the next day and let me know and we'd talk about it.

He wrote out a list of five solutions.
1. Work harder in and out of practice.
2. Become a better student if the game.
3. Become a better teammate.
4. Do what is needed to help the team.
5. Get #14 kicked off the team. Sorry coach that's just a joke.

That kid became an assistant for me 6 years later and replaced me as head coach after I retired. It was that note that made me want to work with this kid. He didn't whine. He didn't quit or make excuses. He tried. He learned and now he's winning not just at basketball but teaching and life.

@FarNrthJHwk Sounds like he was the fertile ground and you found the perfect seed to plant for his potential to sprout and thrive. What a nice feeling it must be to have the memory of that successs.

Of course, there are people here who think saying "Bill just doesn't get his teams up for EE games" is both analytical and dispositive. Any way you can send them off to compose a list of actual solutions? Without kicking #14 off the team, of course, since Bill already tried that last year by getting rid of Brannen Greene, and it didn't work!

@mayjay of course, since Bill already tried that last year by getting rid of Brannen Greene, and it didn’t work!

That's funny. Well played.

Those two kids became pretty dynamic the next two years as teammates. They pushed each other to be better in the summer and just fed off of each other's energy.

14's dad asked me what I said to him after his freshman season to make him work even harder. This kid was talented as a pg. handles for days. Court vision and a good shoot. Natural leader. I told his dad it wasn't me. Wish I could take credit but it was his competition onnthe team. Unfortunately after his junior year he tore his Achilles heel and ACL in a bad wreck and was never able to play any more. His leg was orettt screwed up.

@HighEliteMajor said:

To critique tourney performance is much different than calling for his head. I think that is what a clear majority have done with their comments – critique and discuss.

Exactly. I'm in the camp of "dammit, Bill, figure this thing out". He's at a top 4 school, gets paid a lot of money, and the tournament is kind of a big deal.

At the same time, would I rather have another coach? I can't think of one of rather have. Of course it kills me that Roy could win his 3rd title in 13 years at UNC. Tough comparison there though as it's obviously much easier to recruit to UNC than it is to KU.

The 14 in a row is an incredible achievement. But I'd rather multiple NCAA titles by now. Give me even one more title and you can have the streak.

I don't want to fire Bill. I just see a 2-7 Elite Eight record here and hope he figures it out.

@FarNrthJHwk said:

Does anyone know (or care) what Gonzaga fans blamed Mark Few's curse of the Sweet 16 on?

He had only reached the Elite 8 once before this year with 6 apparences in the Sweet 16.

This is in 17 total apparences before this year.

With less talent because it's Gonzaga, not KU.

Yeah I don't think anyone here has called for Self to be fired or even on the hot seat but it's quite possible I missed a post as I haven't been reading everything.

@mayjay said:

Just a thought about this, because it has been mentioned a lot. Does this reflect a flaw in short-turnaround coaching by Self but his 12-5 record in the second round with that same turnaround does not mean the opposite?

I'd expect better results against teams that aren't considered to be a top 30 team.

@chriz wasn't comparing the two teams but more of the fan bases.

Do you think their fans had lots to say as to why he wasn't getting past the Sweet 16?

We're the blaming it on lack of talent? Need to recruit better?

Kinda seeing that here from a few folks.

A couple of months ago, I posted the message below about Bill Self's change in demeanor come tournament time. It seems appropriate to bring this up again now that we are repeating our Groundhog Day for KU fans.

In light of the comments below, if the game against Oregon was a conference game, say against Oklahoma or KSU, Bill Self would've called an early time out and tore into the team for the sluggish start. Instead, he coddled them and didn't coach them the same as he does during conference.

Previous Post:

Have any of you noticed that Coach Self seems to have different ways of motivating the team when it comes to tournament games relative to conference games? Not sure if it’s my imagination or not, but when it comes to tournament time, Self spends a lot of time talking (publicly anyway) about how the team needs to "play loose and with a free mind".

We rarely, if ever, hear him say something like that during the regular season. Instead, he says things like he did this week where he called out Vick and Bragg in the locker room before the game. During conference he prefers to put pressure on the players in a masterful way so that they are peaking for the difficult road games and turning down the intensity before easy home games. Sorry I don’t have more specific examples to cite here at the moment, but over the years I have noticed a definite shift in his coach-speak when the tournament starts up.

I don’t know if I would call it coddling and I also obviously don’t know if his “play loose” comments are just for the media/public while he is coaching them in the locker room and practice like they are going into Manhattan with the B12 championship on the line. Whichever, he doesn’t seem to be able to get the team anywhere close to the killer instinct that the team possesses both at home and on the road during the regular season.

If somehow Coach Self could get the team to believe that the jerseys on the opposite team read K-State, Baylor, or West Virginia, you can bet many of those disappointing losses in the first or second weekend of the NCAA tournament would have been W’s.

I’ve also noticed that his sideline demeanor changes and is more mild mannered during tournament games. He smiles more at the players and goes easier on them in the huddles. Again, maybe trying to get them to not play “tight” but actually sending the message that it’s OK to lose. During conference games, he almost never smiles and is always chewing someones butt, even if they are winning by 10 points.

For @kjayhawks Posting a reply to you over here instead of the Calipari thread.

Your question gave me pause. Why the trouble with one round (EE) more than others?

Okay, no doubt about that: in Bill's 19 tourneys, 2 losses in 64, 5 in 32, 3 in Sw16, 7 in EE, 1 in Championship game, and one tourney with a Championship (no losses).

Please bear with me. Hypothetical: would we be upset so much if by chance Bill's teams had been seeded differently, say 5-8 in most years, so losing in the Sw16 or EE would have been seen as exceeding expectations? Now, I know that we were seeded much higher, but what if? What if we were not viewed by media as an elite team every single year?

I think people would be frustrated about the inability to break through into the elite level, but I also think we would be delighted that he took teams as far as he has with this exact same record.

So, is the problem Bill's coaching? Or is it people's expectations -- which, as I have pointed out many times before, is caused solely by his excellent coaching throughout the regular season?

I happen to think we won a statistically unusually high number of really close games this year, distorting our record, and if a few breaks had gone the other way we would have easily fallen to a 2, 3, or even 4 seed this year. Living on the edge, it was called by many of us, by falling behind and having to come back behind our POY.

Look at what Bill has done in regular seasons, winning those 13 straight (thrice with all new starters), fighting off Nat'l POYs in conference opponents, overcoming NCAA crap, injuries, criminal mischief, family interference, adverse media scrutiny, drugs suspensions.... I call that overachieving.

And overachieving during the year means that you get better seeds, but it is less likely you can perform to them.

More complicated to see it this way than to just fixate on our disappointments, but it is, I think, a much better explanation than some unlikely explanation that HCBS cracks up somehow in the EE but didn't in the F4 where there is so much more pressure.

Bottom line, it is really the NCAA committee's fault for overseeding us, creating a bunch of fans and media members who cannot see past seed numbers to understand how fragile a record for a #1 seed can be.

@FarNrthJHwk said:

@chriz wasn't comparing the two teams but more of the fan bases.

Do you think their fans had lots to say as to why he wasn't getting past the Sweet 16?

We're the blaming it on lack of talent? Need to recruit better?

Kinda seeing that here from a few folks.

I hear ya. I'm not one of the ones calling for Bill's head (can't say I've actually seen anyone on here calling for his head, doesn't mean they don't exist though.)

If I'm a Gonzaga fan, I cut the coach some slack because I'm not in a power conference and I can't get the same talent as the blue bloods. KU on the other hand, with all of the talent we've had, surely has to have been one of the top for teams in the country more often than we've been to the Final Four.

@chriz would agree with that

@mayjay I'm just curious as to how many schools/fans would wet themselves to have the opportunity to have 7 chances at the elite 8? win or lose? - - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

@dylans Great point. - - Couldn't be said better, anytime after a loss people gonna be fired up - -looking for reasons as to why we lost, a lot of times other then the real reason - -we just got beat, a lot of factors come into play, pretty much just a bad night shooting. - -Ya Oregon came out fired up, I mean a lot of things could have inspired them, just like I heard people giving them NO CHANCE, that's bound to inspire, wanting to prove that they too belonged, that they too had a good team which they do. - -It was just one of those nights. - - -ROCKCHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

If Self won all those EE's would he lose all the next games of the f4?

@chriz said:

can’t say I’ve actually seen anyone on here calling for his head, doesn’t mean they don’t exist though.

There are a bunch of quotes on an Oregon site.

How bad does Bill Self feel today? He has to feel worse than anyone in this forum. In his life, he doesn't have time to sit around and worry himself to death. He has to find out which players are staying, which are leaving and which players does he need to come here that gives him the best chance to compete for a National Championship. He will also make time to have a Team Banquet and personally thank each member for their role in another great season. It may not be the ultimate season, but reaching the Elite 8 is a great accomplishment.

http://es.pn/2n94ST1 ↗
Cal getting it from National media for not winning it all enough.

All valid thought on this thread.

We are going to continue to live with this reality of KU-should-at-least-be-a-FF-team-every-year expectations because of the excellence of our coach and the program. It doesn't look like anytime soon KU will be in a prolonged downswing in terms of basketball prowess.

Now, there can be an argument made (as has been make hundreds of times on this site) that perhaps recruiting more quality players will help us come tournament time. NC this year was not thought to be a front runner early in the season, but they seem to be gelling at the right time, and of course they have lots of talent in all positions. Nike school 😒

In terms of pure coaching, honestly, I really don't see other top tier coaches being any better than Self, and Self went with the flow this year and adapted. Almost all his players seem to love respect and revere him, because he is tough as hell but fair.

Can he figure out how to be a better motivator come tourney time? Yes in my opinion.. I'm guessing he is pondering that right now.
But honestly, the guys we had this year really didn't need motivating, they knew how take care of business in all kinds of hostile environments.
I am somewhat shocked that the Oregon game wasn't closer at the end, because that was our stock in trade this year.

Stephen A is a dodo. Does Calipari have 3 FF in 9 years at Kentucky? Two national title trips and a championship? And he does it with a brand new roster every year. Had he found a way to be UNC yesterday, he would be on his way to another title, imo.

@mayjay There's no evidence because we the public don't get to follow Self around on a daily basis from October when practice starts to the final game of the year. If we were able to, I'm sure something would stand out. So no, it's not a straw argument because there's enough data points to say that tgere is something going on that consistently makes a Bill Self coached team play their worst offensive game of the year in the E8. What we don't know is the variable that changes.

Playing better teams, sure, a below average shooting game sounds reasonable enough for that situation. But it still doesn't explain why that round is consistently KU's worst game of the year.

A hypothesis I would counter with is that Self in the past has admitted to reviewing game tape from KU's final game of the year. Bill Self has been in 18 NCAA tournaments, he's made the E8 half the time (9), but has only won in this round twice. Why would a coach not review game tape when it's consistently the same cause for losing? This is where I would start from in figuring out why Bill Self struggles so much in the E8.

The other place I would go is the November tournaments Self has participated in. KU hasn't won many when there's been a fellow top rated team in them. That's another possible correlation as well.

So while there's nothing we can do to get all the information needed to determine the cause since we can't follow Self around during practice and other basketball related activities, we have to look at what's available through quotes and observable pieces of information available.

@FarNrthJHwk said:

@Texas-Hawk-10 Could be the players want to be the ones who get coach over that hump and out the pressure on themselves?

They get tight. They get "puckered" (which seems to be the word of choice around here). They try to hard to get coach the next Final 4.

Look at how they have played this past season. Once Number 13 was wrapped up it seemed the guys were a little more relaxed. You hear them and coach talk about how non of them want to be the team that snaps the streak of conference titles and they put that pressure on themselves.

Maybe the same can be said about the players wanting it so bad for coach in the Elite 8 that they put the pressure on themselves.

And once shots stop falling you tense up a little more to try to get the next one in and so on.

That still comes back to Bill Self though because part of his job is to make sure his players are ready to play and to make adjustments when something isn't working. So if the team is putting pressure on itself, that's still on Self to try and find a way to loosen them up.

CJ Moore‏Verified account @CJMooreBR 1h1 hour ago

Bill Self has a better tourney win% than Knight, Rupp, John Thompson, Boeheim, Tark & Iba. If he makes E8 next year, he’ll pass Dean Smith.

It's funny how FF is an arbitrary accomplishment that becomes a measure of success. When I was a kid growing up in Illinois going downstate was the goal in basketball. To accomplish that you had to make the Elite 8. If you did that, you had accomplished a lot and everything was judged on that, almost like winning it all was just gravy.

Making the Elite 8 in the NCAA tournament is a nice accomplishment and when we lose in the Elite 8, we are losing to a team that has made the Final 4. Losing in the Elite 8 sucks, but it doesn't suck in a Bucknell or Bradley kind of way, or even in a Northern Iowa kind of way. It means we won three tourney games, pretty exciting, but of course we want to win 6 games each March, not 3.

It's interesting that Jay Wright has had a much worse March record than Bill Self, but right now he is on the list of really good coaches because he won the darn thing last year. Then he comes back this year and goes right back to form with an upset loss, a very regular occurrence in Philly for his teams.

And totally unrelated, but if UNC doesn't pull that one out yesterday then we'd have to endure the awful reality of TWO SEC teams in the FF.

@FarNrthJHwk it is never on the players apparently when KU loses. It is always Self got out coached or failed to adjust. It can never be that the opponent played a better game that day.

Unfortunately this happens to every team that happens to be the favorite in said game.

The team that lost on Saturday was comprised of players with the following recruiting evaluations:

• 5 stars Jackson, Bragg(Didn't see the floor)

• 4 stars Mason, Graham, Svi, Vick

• 3 stars Lucas, Coleby

Our front court was basically mid major level. Coaching isn't the problem, missing on key recruits is. Imagine the team this year with Jarrett Allen. I always go back to Morningstar and Reed being starters that make an Elite 8. That isnt a disappointment that is called MAXIMIZING talent. But at Kansas those guys should have been role players.

@BigBad What was the ranking of the Oregon players?

@wissox

247 composites

Bell #101
Brooks #97
Dorsey #28
Prtichard #54
Benson #187
Dylan Ennis NR!!

@BigBad is right. KU's front court this year was midmajor level. It's just a fact. Nothing against Landen he played his butt off.

@BShark Landon is what he is. It was Bragg's lack of development that really hurt.

@BigBad

Bragg was pretty overrated as it turns out. I admit I was very wrong about him I thought he would be a good player. But at this point, he looks like he should transfer to a team in the MVC. Probably best for Bragg and KU. I wish him the best if he transfers.

@BShark He is a PERFECT fit at the 4 for the Hi Low. His back to the basket moves are lagging and we went 4 out this year so that hurt. Then the off court stuff....

Found this kind of interesting. - - It was said, Yes Bill Self is 2-5 in the elite 8 - -that means we as in KU has made the elite 8 50% of the time since Coach Self has been here, Also said that they bet chances are all but a few of the 351 other Coaches would rally like to be in this position. - -Hmmmmm., this from a Coach that is getting questioned for making adjustments.

Also read: Self has lost twice in the 1st round: - -Bucknell - - - & Bradley.- - Three times in the 2nd round: - - Northern Iowa - - -Stanford - - -& Wichita State. - - -Twice in the Sweet Sixteen- - Michigan State & Michigan.
Five times in the elite 8: - - Georgia Tech - - UCLA - - VCU - - Villanova - - & Oregon - -Once in the Title - -Kentucky. Well hmmm, let's see is it because Self didn't make adjustments OR was it that on this particular night that the other team might of just been better? - - A lot of things go into a win. - -BUT let's look at this another way.

Bill Self is 12-2 in the 1st round - - - -Bill Self is 9-3 in the 2nd round - - -Bill self is 7-2 in the sweet sixteen - - -bill self is yes 2-5 in the elite 8 - - But Bill Self is 2-0 in the Semi's - - -&- - -1-1 in the Title game.- - - -He is 33-13 in the NCAA tourney games - - let me say that again - - Bill Self is 33-13 in the NCAA tourney games - - that is a 71 .7 winning %- - - now I'm kind of curious - -I wonder for a guy that can't or won't make ajustments I wonder about ALL these other games - Coach didn't make adjustments at any point in any other all these other games? - -Kind of odd, so ONLY in the elite 8 games he won't make adjustments? - -I find that kind of odd. - -In all these other games even the ones he has won in the NCAA that he made no adjustments in any of them things tha
t make you go hummmm.

Only two other coaches have been to more elite 8's then Coach- -- Calipari with 9 - -three of those with Memphis - - -Williams with 8. - - One other thought - -you do realize that since 1979 ONLY 25% of the # 1 seeds have made it to the final 4 -- Let me say that again. Since 1979 - -only 25 % of the # 1 seeds have made it to the final 4 - - -25 % - - hmmmm. - -Wonder why they didn't make it any more then that? -was it because their coach couldn't/wouldn't make adjustments? - -OR maybe just maybe - -the shots just wasn't falling -maybe it was just that the other team was just a little better on that particular night? - -Someone please tell me if we were to play a best out of 7 against Oregon who you think would take that series? - you know - -I know - -would it be because we are truly the better team? Anything can happen in a one game scenario - - such as shoots just not falling, not being in proper defensive position, not getting that key rebound - -So in this 7 game series that we know we would win - -Coach Self not making any adjustments OR are we hitting those same shots, better defensive position, getting key rebounds? - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

@jayballer54 How dare you look at the big picture! :wink:

@BigBad LOL, Ya I know lol, - - - I'm sorry- - - -my bad - -:smiley: :relaxed: - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

@jayballer54 If you are a member of the kusports posters, or @Texas-Hawk-10 I think I see your name pop up over there sometimes...

Maybe we should have some investigative journalism and interview players from all elite eight teams that lost, and maybe even the ones that didn't lose and see if there is a common theme that can be discovered.

It doesn't look like Jesse Newell is on here any more. Maybe somebody here knows Keegan, or Tait. Maybe a good piece to work on in the offseason.

@Blown

• 2004: No. 3 Georgia Tech 79, No. 4 Kansas 71 - Roy's boys coached by Self. Giddens was horrible on D, miles couldn't shoot. Jarret jack went off. Played to our seed

• 2007: No. 2 UCLA 68, No. 1 Kansas 55 - Kansas full of young talent and ran into a talented UCLA squad in San Jose

• 2008: No. 1 Kansas 59, No. 10 Davidson 57 - Self's most complete squad squeaked out win against Stephen Curry

• 2011: No. 11 VCU 71, No. 1 Kansas 61 - Sorry but I myself believe Kansas had a flawed roster. Selby not developing and relying on Morningstar and Reed from the outside is meh....team couldnt shoot that day.

• 2012: No. 2 Kansas 80, No. 1 North Carolina 67 - Maybe we get lucky because UNC was missing their starting PG

• 2016: No. 2 Villanova 64, No. 1 Kansas 59 - Wayne Selden lays goose egg from outside

• 2017: No. 3 Oregon 74, No. 1 Kansas 60 - Devonte Graham lays goose egg from outside

I was most disappointed in 07 and 16, the rest were flawed rosters that were finally exposed.

@Blown that would be an interesting idea, now see once again I learn something from here like most days -I never knew that Jesse Newell was on here. - -Wish someone could - -take a lot of work lol. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

!IMG_20170327_131141.jpg ↗

@kjayhawks saw your tag line. Maybe somebody needs to send a #BIFM shirt to Frank Martin?

@kjayhawks And don't forget that North Carolina coach couldn't win a title at KU. I'd be interested to see this same chart with KU's previous 14 appearances. We are at 28 in a row, right?

To me North Carolina is the only record on that list I would trade for ours. Those 13 conference titles aren't nothing and missing the tournament seems absolutely unacceptable (UF, and UConn). Yeah, Duke has an extra title but they get sent home early more often than we do!

Also how about the fact that KU has more conference titles than UNC and Duke combined!

Now my friends I will say this. - - I know there are people here disappointed about getting knocked out, and rightfully so, you/we all have that right to be. It's called passion - - passion for the game - -passion for OUR team, and that's awesome. I know there are one's that feel Bill should/could do better at times and that's fine I have no problems there, everyone has their take/opinion and to tell the truth this is one of the reasons I do enjoy coming in. Yes we can and have got into some heated exchanges but it's all good everyone entitled to their own opinion. Now having said that brings me to this.

Like I said we all here have our opinions - - Then I go to other KU boards specifically the phog, I'm sorry but you have some on there that are just past moronic idiotic.Just totally off the wall - way over the fence in left field. This one for example kills me: - - Total embarrassment stating that he had never been so embarrassed as a fan - -How he was embarrassed felt ashamed to be a KU fan - -It's statements such as this that really chap my a - - . I mean people such as this we have no need for as a KU fan base -your embarrassed? - - REALLY SERIOUSLY? - -how about this - -you embarrass us. - - I truly believe that some people have no comprehension no idea, no clue they just let words spew out their mouth before they make these kind of statements.

You don't think realize that the players don't rad these type of things made from the public? - -How do you think this makes these kids feel? - - You seriously don't feel these players don't give it their 100% you think they purposely go out and dog it during the games? - You think these kinds of statement from classless people such as yourself makes these kids feel proud to be a member of Jayhawk Nation? - -My response o idiots such as this are your embarrassed? - -YOUR EMBARRASSED? how about this - why don't YOU KICK ROCKS, that way we/ Jayhawk Nation won't be embarrassed by the likes of you - -get the hell out of here with that crap. - -We/Jayhawk Nation, the Ku team do not need fair weather closet bandwagon fans such as yourself pander. - -I mean JUMPIN - - GEE - -HOSSA - -FATS - - did you seriously go to school for 17 yrs to be so self educated ? to make such statements such as that? -The same applies to another individual that tried to insinuate that Devonte THREW the game - -OMG Now tell me to what purpose would it benefit Devonte to throw this game? - -come on - step away from the pipe and slowly back away - -Holy crap.

So just wanted to say guys & gals seeing as I never know who is who guys or gals here as I am still even after this time am new at certain things, I just want to say that even though we have our exchanges/debates this room gets for sure my props, a lot of very well versed individuals here even though we might not agree all the time - -I have yet to EVER EVER see such bull sh- - come out of anyone's mouth such as off the phog's - -you people are my Hawks and Hawkette's or bud's and Budette's however you wanna put it - -so it's time to just keep on rockin on - - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

@HighEliteMajor I didn't think our guys knew how to attack them. I don't think we caught on until 30 minutes into the game, and then we couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. We need a Dooley sitting by Bill's side, imo.

Is it me or is the local media making the KU loss to be way worse than it really was?

@jayballer54 Anyone saying they were embarrassed is an egotistical SOB who has confabulated their self worth with the fortunes of a basketball team.

@KUSTEVE Exactly. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

@kjayhawks

What this shows to me is how much we were really screwed out of a Final Four appearance last year. Calling Graham for the foul late in the game was one of the worst pieces of officiating I can ever recall. We may have lost in the championship to NC last year, but I'm confident we would have made the championship game. Had we been allowed to finish that game and win it, our E8 record looks a lot better.

This year, we were beat by a super hot and more talented team that played defense against us the right way.

We should all keep in mind that E8 is still "elite", and I think we can be somewhat satisfied with our performance his year.

@Eric-san As a retired coach in public I would take the blame for 90% of our losses. Never once did I blame a player or team for the loss. The other 10% were bad nights, bad breaks.

To me what happened Saturday was just that a bad night. Especially after the past three games came soneasily. Once you hit that bump in the road it just adds added pressure to the situation.

Last year KU won by around 18 points a game before losing to Nova. This year they were winning by around 30.

So when everything is falling and the ball bounces your way wow the feeling of ease makes the game easy.

When the shots aren't falling or the ball bounces out of your hands into the opponents you seem to push the issue a little more adding pressure.

@Texas-Hawk-10 So the defensive intesity the improved in the second have just happened! That wasn't an adjustment made by the coaches?

I feel like you are asking to hear a story about Bill Self in the under 12 timeout telling jokes are pointing out a celebrity in the crowd ala Joe Montana in smthe suoer bowl pointing out John Candy innthebhuddle before the 49ers went on a game winning drive?

Different people handle pressure differently. Maybe Frank put so much pressure on himself to carry the entire team it affected him? How does Coach Self stop that? Bench him?

As a coach you can prepare prepare and teach and talk about it. But once the flame of the game is lit. Things change.

@FarNrthJHwk You're looking at this in a micro perspective and on a micro perspective, sure it was a bad night. Zoom out to the macro view though and you see bad nights like this happen like clockwork for Bill Self in the E8. Why do bad nights like this for Bill Self teams regularly happen in the exact same round (E8) for the exact same reason (lowest offensive scoring game of the season). That's what I'm trying to wrap my head around and come up with theories.

Something happening once or twice in that many games can be chalked up to bad nights and worth investing time in. That's not what's happening though. This is now the 6th time in 9 games overall and 5th in 7 games at KU where Self's team has had their worst offensive game in E8. That's beyond coincidence and is a pattern that's worth analyzing to see if there's something Self does differently for the E8 than any other game that makes his teams have their worst games of the season.

@Texas-Hawk-10 I understand that point of view and wanting to know.

Sat in a coaching clinic in very early 1990s and listened to football coach Tom osborn talk about his issues in bowl games and against Oklahoma. And how fans were always on him and wanted him fired or to change what he was doing the weeks leading up to those big games. How he'd go home and try and to think of ways to make those changes.
From personell, to different coaches to going to a different school to coach. It weighed on him.
He then decided that if he stood his ground good things would happen.

Wishing a few years he played for 4 national titles in 5 years and won three. Now he is known as one of the greatest college football coaches.

Not saying Coach Self can't change things but what in your opinion does he need to change from Sweet 16 to Elite 8 in 48 hours?

Maybe his scouting of the other team? Manning. Dooley and a few others have left and they did scouting. They moved on so maybe that's not it?

Maybe his philosophy? There are so many coaches in college basketball that the goal each season is to make the final 4. Not to win it all. They just want that chance in the Final 4. So the pressure starts on day 1 for some of these teams to reach that milestone of the Final 4.

There are an infinite number of reasons why something doesn't work or doesn't happen. Sometimes in life and in sports we just need to accept we can't fix it or figure it out and just keep pushing forward.

@Texas-Hawk-10 There you go with the notion that if something happens 6 out of 9 times it cannot be a coincidence. Why not? The numbers are not overwhelmingly unlikely.

@KUSTEVE said:

@jayballer54 Anyone saying they were embarrassed is an egotistical SOB who has confabulated their self worth with the fortunes of a basketball team.

And, unjustifiably doing so since anyone disowning the team in defeat deserves no hint of the team's success.

@mayjay 6 out of 9 in a specific round of the NCAA tournament is a not a small sample size. Once you get that big of a sample size with the same result over an extended period of time, I don't believe that's a coincidence any longer. That's a pattern or a trend to me.

@FarNrthJHwk Without being able to observe routines firsthand or have accounts out there from former or current players/assistant coaches in regards to differences on Self's preparation, scouting, demeanor, or other potential culprits makes it nearly impossible to anything other than speculate amd hypothesize.

Most NCAA tourney wins since 2000: 1. Roy 54 2. K 44 3. Izzo 43 4. Self 42 5. Calipari 40

@betterfireE The way our offense was operating during that game when the Graham foul occurred there's not guarantee we come back and win that game. I think we were down 3 at the time. That call, cost us a 50/50 chance of winning that game. Didn't cost us the game.

@wissox So it didn't cost us 100% of the game, just 50% of the game. I kid, but we will never know our chances because as you said, that opportunity was taken from us.

@jayballer54
Arguably your best post all year ... count agree with your stats and big-picture logic more.

@Bosthawk Well Thanks - - - have you ever heard that saying the sun has to shine on a dogs a - - sometimes lol, that be me. - -Once in a blue moon I come up with something decent so I think anyways, Were all Jayhawks , most everyone here for sure have real passion - -just wants whats best for the team. -Can't say as much for other sites and as always - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

@mayjay

I thought this was Bill Self's best year ever. Yes... even better than '08!

Bill is now "not a young man" but he has shown a lot of the abilities of a young man by being open-minded to adapting his game.

As long as we have THIS Bill Self, we are bound to improve because Bill is improving, too.

This loss really caught me off guard. Why? Because I thought we were better prepared this March than any previous March. Bill did what he could to rest his guys even though we had a short bench.

@mayjay Thank you for this post. I'm really sick of people bashing Bill and the team after Saturday. I even turned my phone off for most of the day Sunday. HCBS is the man period. Sure his record could be better but there's no other coach alive on earth that i'd want to helm our beloved Jayhawks!

@HawkInMizery Thank you!

Our bracket was filled with teams loaded with height and bullies. We knocked off MSU (bullies on the court) and Purdue (plenty of height). There fan bases have to be pissed about losing to Kansas. The one thing I take away from not advancing in this year's tournament is that before we left, we took a few teams with us.

Been thinking about this for a couple days now. Why Self gets stuck in the Elite 8.

Had it been a regular season game and JJ picks up 2 fouls before the 1st TV time out, would Self even bother bringing JJ back in the game? Especially when they were only down a point in the 1st half? I think we can all agree JJ was pretty ineffective the first half. Virtually losing a position player for a half. Maybe this could be 1 example of Self doing something different in the E8?

I read a quote from Vick saying he'll remember this Elite 8 all the way to next year. Is that really the smart thing to do? Automatically set yourself up for that pressure before next season begins?

I'm probably just overthinking this now.

See ya around in the Royals GDTs!

@jayballer54 said:

I’m just curious as to how many schools/fans would wet themselves to have the opportunity to have 7 chances at the elite 8? win or lose?

Yes - BUT they aren't KANSAS fans!

@nuleafjhawk Right cause they aren't spoiled - - - Did you happened to noticed where I posted that since 1979 only 25 % of # 1 seeds reach the final 4? - - That's not very good odds over the years, I imagine there are ALOT and I mean ALOT of schools that would love to be in the position we are --a lot of elements go into making the final four, a we have seen it only takes ONE bad night and your done, doesn't mean your season is a waste or disaster - -doesn't mean your season has been a failure/loss. Many of really good teams have failed to make it to the final four - - -ask umm Duke - -Kentucky - -Michigan State - - Ucla - - Arizona, a lot involved to get there. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

@jayballer54

Right on man. Have I told you that your writing has noticeably improved a lot? more often than not you're making really compelling arguments that I can get behind. Enjoying what you're laying down. Keep it up!

We should compare ourselves and our achievements to the other blue blood programs, and to the other elite programs of the day (meaning more recent history -- UConn, Florida, Louisville, etc) -- that will help us determine if we're performing reasonably.

I love the graphic from @kjayhawks There's your guide. Since '04, slotting us in at around 5th or 6th spot is pretty fair. If you weight conference titles more, or tourney appearances, then perhaps we skip over a couple.

No way that I am satisfied with that.

We are not the top program since 2004. That's why I'm not satisfied. I don't care one iota as to whether other crap schools would be happy with our record. I'm sure they would be. It's irrelevant in my mind.

We are Kansas, as @nuleafjhawk said.

The difference here is just one -- one national title. That would add an additional title game and an additional final four. The entire narrative and discussion changes with another title. I've said that now going on 7 seasons -- since the UNI debacle. One ... more ... title.

Root for Gonzaga, or SC, or even Oregon .. because if Roy gets another, our mountain is steeper. Though, if someone had to be King other than Self, I'm glad it might be Roy.

.

@kjayhawks Its just coincidence but I did notice 12 of 13 titles were won by Eastern Time Zone Teams. 42 of 47, or something has been won by eastern time zone schools since ESPN became televised. Just a coincidence, I'm sure. But still noteworthy. With this much data, it would mean it is an exception to the rule when a team west of the Mississippi wins it.

Arkansas, UCLA, Kansas, UNLV, & Arizona--I believe are those exceptions

@HighEliteMajor said:

Root for Gonzaga, or SC, or even Oregon … because if Roy gets another, our mountain is steeper. Though, if someone had to be King other than Self, I’m glad it might be Roy.

Right now, I have some strange man crush on Frank Martin. I'd be less perturbed if South Carolina won it. (Less perturbed since KU isn't there...)

It wouldn't kill me if Ol Roy won it again. He's had nothing but great things to say about KU - I personally was ticked at him for about 5 years after he left, but hey - he did what was right for him and his family. I'm over it now. (I'd like him a lot more if he'd trash those God-awful checkered jackets..... :-1: )

There is no scenario on earth that permits me to root for Oregon or Gonzaga. That's all I'll say.

As my sweet (female) friend who lives in South Carolina loves to say - GO 'COCKS!!

@Blown Shhhhhh ... @jaybate-1.0 may be listening.

@nuleafjhawk Seriously ... is the SC basketball team the lady 'cocks?

@HighEliteMajor OK - I don't ever literally LOL - but I did just now!

@Blown You are right. Kansas was the last team west of the Mississippi in 2008. While Arizona in 1997 was the last team west if the Rockies to win it all.

@nuleafjhawk If the OSU ladies are that Cowgirls .. the SC girls would be the ... ?

@approxinfinity Hey well thanks for that, greatly appreciated. - - I guess like so many other things it just like taking the rigors of war, being battle tested from and along in this site. I will tell you this, I have learned so much from everyone here some good, some maybe not so good. Even with saying that I can tell and feel the passion in the room for our Ku Jayhawks. I love coming here, reading the different post, peoples thoughts and input.

Does that mean as individuals we have to agree with everything that everyone says or thinks in here? NO absolutely not, nor does it mean we have to disagree with everything either. This is actually one of the things that I actually like about this room, sometimes you may get 40 different opinions from 40 different people - - AND? what's so wrong with that right? For the most part everyone here is very level headed - - -sure at times things might get a little heated - - a little over the top - - but that's ok -I know that I can go off the deep end sometimes - -sometimes way off the deep end and for that I am truthfully sorry. - At the time if you were to ask me if I was wrong I'd would more likely then not just tell you to shut the hell up step the f- - - back up off me and find someone else - -that's me again I'm sorry.

However you know what? - - I's people like yourself and many others in here that I have grown to know, that I have come to realize are just pretty good folks. Like I said earlier it's ok if we al don't agree - -it's kind of like in a way there is this example, let me share and I'm sorry if I get off track but please try and follow with me ok? - -here is an example:

We were talking at work one day about relationships and arguing. One young guy and I mean young like 20 or so made the comment OH me and my woman NEVER argue. - - The rest of us almost at the same time, stood there for a moment and said - -REALLY? - -REALLY? then we preceded to tell him it's like this if your in a relationship with someone and you never argue - - -well guess what - - -you don't have a relationship. Because if your in a relationship no mater how great that relationship is and you never argue - -then that means someone is kissing someone's ass - -and that's NOT relationship. So anyways with me saying all that, that's kind of like the way this room is. This group is in kind of a relationship with the other people here - -and there are going to be disagreements and that's ok because people are entitled to their opinion - -WHY? - -because it's THEIR opinion doesn't mean we have to agree with it - -like it - -even understand it - -that's fine, but that's what great about this room.

In the end we work it out - -we have that one goal - -to dissect, evaluate, and give our view. It's people like you that make this room special for me, so thanks again I appreciate what you had to say, & i'll try to keep working maybe some day I'll be able to achieve even better - -thanks my friend and as always - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

@jayballer54 hear hear! :beers: we're the anti-Fakebook.

@jayballer54

In hospital jargon, we call the process ("to dissect, evaluate, and give our view") the 'blameless autopsy'...when things go terribly wrong (as they so often do in life), it is a great experience to step back from the histrionics and emotional arguments and take a deep dive into causation. What we inevitably discover is that most situations are multifactorial (many symptoms, few root causes) . What I most appreciate about this board is that this dynamic is occurring independently and interactively (without benefit of a facilitator) and 99% of the time the comments (even those at odds) are very insightful and respectful. What a wonderful 'learning lab' @approxinfinity has created for all of us along with contributors so willing to share.

Here's my take.

Self is a tremendous coach. He's one of several truly great coaches in the country. If we imagine our coach as a superhero, Self is a superhero while Bruce Weber is the guy that gets out of the cab to watch the superhero and supervillian fight, then runs down the street screaming.

But what do all superheroes have? They all have a flaw or weakness.

Self's is that he tightens up in certain situations, at which point he can become predictable and rigid, which exposes him to being outcoached simply because everything is telegraphed. Of course, when the scheme you are rigid to has resulted in over 600 victories against fewer than 200 defeats, you earn the right to be a bit stubborn.

Before this year, it was always a challenge to get Self to break away from the high-low. That was his thing, and he always wanted to run it, even when his best players were perimeter guys.

This year, Self finally broke away from that. I thought he had finally slain the beast. But there's still a dragon lurking inside. Self still tightens up, and rather than be fluid and flexible, he becomes rigid and predictable. That helps a lot in a two day turnaround.

Think about Self's most frustrating tournament losses - UNI in 2010, Stanford in 2014, Wichita State in 2015, VCU in 2011, Villanova last year, Oregon this season. The common thread is that they were all that second day of the turnaround.

It's easy to prepare when you know if the game gets tight, Self will revert to a predictable pattern. Your goal is to set out a close game, then hope you make plays when you know the fastball is coming.

Self needed to make a change on Saturday night. He needed to be flexible rather than rigidly adhere to the system. The process works, but Self needed to, in that moment, get outside the box. diagnose the problem and fix it.

The problem - Bell was killing us. His quickness and shotblocking was cutting off our attack of the lane. Since we couldn't finish in the paint, our drives weren't collapsing the defense, meaning we couldn't get good looks on threes. Even later in the game when we did get some good looks, we didn't convert because our shots were rushed.

Okay, so what's the fix.

Simple - the five out lineup that we ultimately finished the game with. Only problem is, Self went to it with three minutes left when he should have played that lineup from the under 8 timeout through the end of the game. The season is on the line. That was our only hope.

Jackson, Svi, Vick, Graham, Mason. Oregon counters with their best lineup (Bell, Brooks, Ennis, Dorsey, Pritchard). Defensively, KU puts JJ on Bell (Bell is taller, but JJ is quicker and doesn't give up much weight here), Vick on Brooks (Vick has the athleticism edge even though Brook is a bit bigger), Graham on Dorsey (to counter his size), Svi on Ennis (the lesser scorer) and Mason on Pritchard.

Oregon doesn't post Bell up much, so Josh doesn't have to worry about direct post ups and just has to focus on keeping Bell off the glass.

Offensively, Bell can no longer just stand in the paint because he has to guard someone away from the basket. This opens up driving lanes and makes the defense have to rotate. A rotating defense is a shooter's best friend because you can see shots develop as the ball is swung and the defense is scrambling. We never made Oregon scramble Saturday night because every time we drove, Oregon just waited on Bell to turn us away.

Self finally recognized the adjustment, but it was too late. KU was at a point of needing to shoot threes by then. Given a bit more time and the option of driving to the basket, things may have turned out differently, although it may not have considering we didn't make shots.

But again, making the defense rotate would have been huge because that gives our shooters a chance to get their feet set and ready to release rather than trying to get away from a defender to set up a shot.

I think this season helped Self grow as a coach. Moving away from the high lo and traditional two post game to a game that suited his team's best personnel was a big step for him. I was hoping it would make him more flexible in game as well, but that is still something to work towards.

But still, the man is 623-192 over his career. He has found things that work at every stop. I'm not off the band wagon. I just want to swing it in for a quick tuneup.

I was a sophomore when Roy left. I was sick for a week. I could not stop thinking about how there was no possible way our next coach could outperform, or even match what he did. 14 years later, here we are and Bills best tournament days are ahead of him. He won the gold medal. he's been to two straight elite eights. Let's hope he sticks around another 5 years and gets another ring, or two. He deserves it.

!IMG_4863.PNG ↗

@Blown Same age. We were pretty spoiled to go to the Final 4 our first two years of school. No doubt about that. We were a few lucky bounces away from 3 in a row if you are being pretty positive about the GA Tech loss! Great time to be at KU. Bill had huge shoes to fill and I could not be happier with the coach that we have or where I feel that the program is heading. In 5-7 more years I hope we are talking about around 20 Big 12 titles and maybe a deep run or two in the tourney.

@joeloveshawks yes, Roy was hitting his stride for sure and has continued it for the most part. And as I've aged I understand and respect his move to get back home.

Sure would have been a different dynamic had they made free throws and beat cuse. Likely still would have gone home, but sure would have been leaving in a bitter sweet high note.

@Blown said:

Its just coincidence but I did notice 12 of 13 titles were won by Eastern Time Zone Teams. 42 of 47, or something has been won by eastern time zone schools since ESPN became televised.

Are the odds of EST teams winning 12 of the last 13 and 42 of 47 since ESPN began televising the games greater, or lesser, than the WTC towers being the first and only incidence of three high rise towers designed to withstand commercial jet impacts falling in their own foot prints in a single day?

To be fair let's add Red Auerbach's 10 NBA rings in 12 seasons, Wooden's 10 rings in 11 years and Self's 13 titles in 13 years.

What is it about American basketball that makes it so prone to to so many extraordinary streaks?

I am reminded that James Naismith saw his game invented in a Springfield YMCA spread within a couple years throughout Northeast and Great Lakes industrial cities as a professional sport staged by boxing and burlesque promoters with gambling thoroughly a part of the games.

Naismith actually abandoned his game for several years and moved to Denver to get a Doctor of Osteopathy degree. Looking back one wonders if he became disillusioned by his lost control and the sport's saturation with gambling.

Gambling is about the odds of something happening. Basketball has long been plagued by interference in its outcomes. Perhaps the interference has been more than we suspected?

@mayjay

A little late to the game but I decide to give myself a little break from posting to recover from the loss and avoid the acrimony that follows a loss in the tournament.

The coin flip analogy is one that is often used to make a point but in this case, as it is in most other cases where its is used, not an applicable one.

First, the coin flip statistic assumes that you are using ONE perfectly balanced coin, with each side having a perfect 50% chance and the number becomes more accurate with a larger number of coin flips; a small sample will not necessarily show a perfect distribution. Second, every Elite 8 has different teams with different players that change from year to year, so this alone invalidates the comparison. Third, the winning probability of teams playing in the Elite 8 is not a perfect 50% but often something quite different and last, the sample is not big enough to show a definite trend.

Nice try but no cigar...a consolation single malt is OK.

@JayHawkFanToo And, by focusing on the tool, you missed the point. I was trying to illustrate by using something familiar (coin flips) that the loss rate by Self is not something statistically so far out of likelihood that, as expressly stated by some here, the only possible explanation is something aberrant about his coaching. I think a 2-5 record with KU, demonstrates no such thing.

Each game has 2 possible outcomes, thus in measuring win/loss statitical probability you are only measuring distribution of all possible outcomes, not the factors that give a team a higher or lower chance of success. Bill's loss rate in E8 games occurs 21 times out of 128 total possible outcomes, ranging from all wins to all losses. That is approximately one out of six times. The coin flip analogy simply demonstrated where that falls along the probability of an outcome in a test we all are familiar with.

The bigger problem with all of this is the failure to consider where his results fall on graphs that also incorporate, among other things, his seeds, the average success rate of those seed levels in the history of the modern tournament, how he compares to others in other rounds, and the results in all rounds not just the 8. Izzo, by comparison, is great in the E8. But Bill by comparison has Izzo beaten in the semifinal in winning percentage terms, but his sample size is much smaller.

@mayjay said:

@HighEliteMajor said:

This relates to how a coach has his team ready to play on a short turnaround vs. an unfamiliar opponent.

Just a thought about this, because it has been mentioned a lot. Does this reflect a flaw in short-turnaround coaching by Self but his 12-5 record in the second round with that same turnaround does not mean the opposite?

I guess I am not willing to make very firm conclusions or find patterns where these things are based on info so highly selective.

And we play a ton of Sat / Mon games. Granted - not unfamiliar teams.

@mayjay

No, I am not missing the point. When the #1 seed play the #16 seed the game has two possible outcomes, right? but they are not even close to being equal in probability as it would be when you flip a coin...so far the #1 seed is 100% and the #16 seed is 0%. Again, just because there are two possible outcomes it does not mean they have equal chances.

Again, you are comparing coin flipping where the perfectly balanced coin never changes and the flip is is exactly the same every time to an event in which the teams are different every time and also from year to year and with a different winning possibility every single game based on team personnel at the time of the game. For example, this year we had #1 Gonzaga playing #11 Xavier and #1 UNC playing #2 Kentucky; this is how much variation there is in the Elite 8.

A friend of mine is a top actuary for a well know insurance company and he always laughs at the way sports writers use statistics, more often than not incorrectly...we used to have very interesting conversations on the subject although I mostly listened and learned because even when I have a pretty good working knowledge on the subject he is in a different league than I am.

Nice try...but still no cigar.

@mayjay Coin flips are not 50/50. They are biased towards whatever side is face up before the flip.

Let's say that a coin flip truly was 50/50, there's no variable. In Self's E8 games, there are many variables. The school Self is coaching at, the school Self is coaching against, the coach Self is coaching against, the players Self coaches, the players Self coaches against, injured players, the style officiating by the refs. These are all variables that make basketball games very rarely a 50/50 proposition. The only constant in these 9 games has been Bill Self.

So when you have a replicated performance (6 of 9 times) woth only one constant, that constant has some kind of impact that causes these repeated outcomes.

Go.look at Self's record in the November tournaments KU has had to play 3 games in 3 days in, there's a lot of losses with poor offensive games in there as well.

@JayHawkFanToo I am measuring outcomes after the fact. There are a finite number of outcomes each measured only by win or loss. You are talking about probability of winning, which is a measure of predictability.

Bill could have had WWLLLLL, or LLLLLWW, or LWLLLWL, or any other distribution of 2 wins and 5 losses, whatever the order. etc. If he had zero wins, there is only one distribution where that occurs. If he had 7 wins, also only one. If he had 3 wins, or 4 wins, or 5, or 6, each of these has a finite number of times that occur in the distribution. He had two, which occurs 21 times in a distribution of every possible combination of 2 wins and 5 losses.

You are arguing as if I said he had a 16% chance of winning. That isn't it. But remember, I am only saying the numbers alone do not mean it is solely the result of coaching.

Forget my argument, because you don't obviously don't understand it. Maybe it is me. Do me a favor. Look at the only assertion I am arguing against: they say he could not have lost 5 out of 7 for any reason other than coaching. Use your skills on that one. Tell me why the number of losses vs the number of win cannot just be a coincidence.

That argument depends on an assumption that a coincidence is too unlikely to have occurred. So, where is the proof of improbability?

Remember, I am only saying coincidence cannot be dismissed because a record of 2 W 5 L is not so far out of the realm of possibility as to be virtually impossible.

@JayHawkFanToo And, by the way, this is not the use of stats your friend complains about. It drives me crazy when someone says "he should have let Brett hit because he had a 30% chance of getting a hit" based on his batting average.

Take my hypothesis and my posts to your friend. See if he agrees with me that the distribution of all outcomes can be measured to determine if a particular set of outcomes (with no other factors) is statistically not unusual.

@mayjay said:

The bigger problem with all of this is the failure to consider where his results fall on graphs that also incorporate, among other things, his seeds, the average success rate of those seed levels in the history of the modern tournament,

So here's Bill Self's seed history in his E8 games and the seed he was coaching against

2000^:Tulsa (7) lost to North Carolina (8)

2001: Illinois (1) lost Arizona (2)

2004: Kansas (4) lost to Georgia Tech (3)

2007^: Kansas (1) lost to UCLA (2)

2008^: Kansas (1) beat Davidson (10)

2011^: Kansas (1) lost to VCU (11)

2012: Kansas (2) beat North Carolina (1)

2016^: Kansas (1) lost to Villanova (2)

2017^: Kansas (1) lost to Oregon (3)

^ Year Self's team had worst offensive game of season in E8

Out of the 6 times Bill Self's team has had their worst offensive game of the year in the E8, Self has been a 1 seed including all 5 times at KU. KU is 1-5 in those 6 games. Overall, Bill Self has had the higher seed in 7 of his 9 E8 games and is 1-6 in those games. Bill Self has been a 1 seed in 6 of his 9 E8 games and is just 1-5 in those games and his team has had their worst offensive game of the year in 5 of those 6 games. 2008 is the 1 win in all of those records.

1 seeds are historically 38-34 against 2 seeds in the NCAA tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. So 1 seeds historically win about 53% of the time against 2 seeds. Self is 0-3 as a 1 seed in 1 vs. 2 match ups and 1-0 as a 2 seed in 1 vs. 2 match ups so 1-3 overall. 25% is much lower than 53%. 1 seeds are historically 20-13 against 3 seeds for a 60% win rate. 1 seeds are 6-1 against 10 seeds , and 1 seeds are 3-3 against 11 seeds. 4 seeds 3-5 against 3 seeds all time and 7 seeds are 1-1 against 8 seeds all time. Here is the source for you (http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml). ↗ Bill Self is 1-6 in the E8 as the higher seeded team. I don't care where you look, you will not find anywhere that a higher seed has 14% winning percentage against a lower seeded team. Just looking through that site, the anomalies are 2 seeds against 4 and 5 seeds (4-5 against 4 seeds and 1-4 against 5 seeds), 4 seeds against 6, 7, and 8 seeds (2-4 against 6 seeds, 2-3 against 7 seeds, and 3-7 against 8 seeds), 5 seeds against 8 and 9 seeds (1-3 against 8 seeds and 1-2 against 9 seeds), 6 seeds against 8 seeds (1-3), and 10 seeds against 11 seeds (1-2).

Self's record is below average based on what other same seeds have historically done against the same seeds Self has face in the E8. I believe the only other 7 vs. 8 game in NCAA tournament history besides the Tulsa/UNC game in 2000 was the UConn/Kentucky title game in 2014.

@mayjay

You still don't get it. The coin flip analogy is completely not applicable n this case. You are trying to apply a deterministic statistical approach to a process with multiple variables and random outcomes and where a Bayesian Probability Approach is in order. I will not go in detail on what this it because it would bore the bejesus out of everybody here...and probably me too... but you can probably google it and get the general idea. I have myself worked more with Markov Chains since is is more applicable to the work I do but my friend is an expert n Bayesian Probability Analysis, since that is more applicable to the field he is in.

This is quickly getting our of hand and it is time that we get back to just plain ol' KU basketball.

P.S. I have not talked to my friend in a while but I will see if I still have his phone number; I believe he retired a couple of year ago.

@Texas-Hawk-10 Thank you for that info. All of which is more than just his simple win/loss record in one particular round. Knowing more about the losses' circumstances may tend to implicate coaching, but I also think it implicates incorrect seeding due to our consistent overachieving in the regular season--i.e., I believe we are not as our seeding because our record each year appears to be stronger than we are. (Look how distorted our close game record was vs the average.)

Jayballer keeps citing a stat that only 25% of #1 seeds have gotten to the F4. I haven't checked that, but (assuming we throw out HCBS's record to avoid skewing the average toward him) if that 1 over 2 record is as strong as you cite, that must mean most #1 seeds who lost before the F4 (that 75%) either got knocked off early or lost to seeds lower than 2 in the E8.

Seeding drives me crazy because during the tournament everyone knows that it is based on a committee's collective judgment regarding the relative strength of teams. There is no consensus on how to measure this, RPI vs BPI vs the computer models vs blah blah blah. There is also the monkey wrench thrown in that we don't have a good working knowledge of how the committee does its work.

A fourth best #1 and the best #2 might easily be switched in almost every tourney with few cases of heartburn. You could probably shuffle all the teams on any particular line without causing undue shock, so the same would also likely be true of shuffling the last two on one line with the best two on the next line.

Would we be as upset if KU had been lower seeded in the years we have lost in the E8? Does the panache of a #1 seed create unrealistic expectations if 75% of them do not live up to their seeding.

@JayHawkFanToo So you didn't even read my last post since I don't mention coin flips. I am talking finite outcomes (there are only two). You are worrying about how likely those outcomes are (impossible to measure). That is irrelevant when counting things that have already happened.

@mayjay Since 1985 when the field expanded to 64 teams (including this season), out of 128 total 1 seeds, 50 have reached the Final Four. That's 39%, but we can round that up to 40% to simplify the math which says that for every 5 one seeds out there, 2 of them should reach the Final Four. Bill Self has received a 1 seed 8 times (2001 with Illinois, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016, and 2017. The numbers say Bill Self should have between 3 and 4 Final Four appearances from these 8 seasons alone, but he only has 1 so again, he has underachieved to historical performances of other 1 seeds.

He's a hall of fame coach, wouldn't want another one, and I think he'll get some more Final Fours and titles. Just wish he'd hurry up and figure it out.

I'm for Frank Martin 100%!

I've always been a fan of Frank's... and it just intensified when he said all those great things about Kansas.

Frank is the real deal.

Go, Gamecocks!

@drgnslayr I missed it, what did he say about Kansas?

@Texas-Hawk-10 Wouldn't it be more fair to mention 2012? What seed were we? How many times have we had that seed? What are the averages?

Maybe Self has overperformed as a non-1 seed: seems fair to say so...

@ParisHawk Self's been a lower seed in the E8 twice. KU lost as a 4 seed to 3 seed GT in 2004 and beat 1 seed UNC as a 2 seed in 2012. 2 games is not enough to draw any meaningful or trends out of.

@Texas-Hawk-10 said:

@ParisHawk Self's been a lower seed in the E8 twice. KU lost as a 4 seed to 3 seed GT in 2004 and beat 1 seed UNC as a 2 seed in 2012. 2 games is not enough to draw any meaningful or trends out of.

And that 1 seed UNC team was missing their starting point guard.

@Texas-Hawk-10 said:

@ParisHawk Self's been a lower seed in the E8 twice. KU lost as a 4 seed to 3 seed GT in 2004 and beat 1 seed UNC as a 2 seed in 2012. 2 games is not enough to draw any meaningful or trends out of.

Which helps whoever wants to emphasize Self's postseason shortcomings...

@chriz

When he was at KSU he mentioned KU many times in a very positive light.

@ParisHawk Also, just more known info .. we did underachieve as a non-#1 seed against Bucknell, Bradley, Stanford, Wichita St. Of course, those sort of stumbles are not unique to high-level coaches and every top coach seems to have similar missteps.

@HighEliteMajor

The Bucknell game was bad. Langford was on a bad wheel and Wayne seemed really tired at the end of that season.

The Bradley game was the 05-06 team. That team played well at times but was REALLY young and had chemistry issues with Julian Wright. I dont think Self ever figured out the best rotation with him. He was such a hybrid player.

The Stanford game we missed Embiid but Self should have started pressing earlier.

Withcita State loss was a roster of no go to players. Ellis wasn't that confident yet, Selden never was reliable, and Frank wasn't really Frank yet. I also don't think our guys wanted it like they did. The "nobody respects us" is always a huge motivator.

If you really want to feel like someone throwing a pity party (pretty much what it is at this point) realize that KU has the 3rd best winning percentage in the NCAA tournament all time at 69% behind Duke 75% and Florida 71%

@jaybate-1.0

Basketball, because it can be dominated by one or two great players, is prone to dominance you can't see in other sports because the best players can play such an outsized role.

Jordan's Bulls won 6 of 8 titles in years he played in the 1990s.

Lebron James has been to the Finals in each of the last six seasons.

If you have one of the top talents, you are automatically good. That's just what happens with basketball. Magic's Lakers, Bird's Celtics, as long as those guys were healthy, their teams were among the best.

College is a bit different because coaches tend to focus on systems more because the talent is always changing, but that means the best coaches have an advantage - it's no accident that the last 10 titles in college hoops look like this - Donovan, Self, Williams, Coach K, Calhoun, Calipari, Pitino, Ollie, Coach K, Wright. That's 6 titles from current HOF coaches Williams, Coach K, Calhoun, Calipari, and Pitino, two from likely HOF coaches Wright and Self and one from a coach that probably would have been a HOF coach had he stayed in college (Donovan). We could stretch it back a few more years and we would find Donovan again, Williams again, Calhoun again, Boeheim (another HOF coach), Gary Williams (another HOF coach), Coach K again, Izzo (another HOF coach), Calhoun again, Tubby Smith, Lute Olson (another HOF coach), Pitino again.

Out of the last 22 titles, 15 have been won by current HOF coaches. The only coaches that have won titles in the last two decades plus that likely won't make the HOF are Tubby Smith and Kevin Ollie, and perhaps Billy Donovan since he moved to the pros. They represent just 4 titles.

That influence is unlikely to ever change.

@HighEliteMajor Not to pile on, but Northern Iowa as well. Yes, all coaches have tourney missteps. Looking from the outside, Self has more than his share, though. Getting to the E8 7 out of 14 seasons is pretty darn good......just too bad we couldn't have won another 1 or 2 of those..........resume would look a lot better IMO.

@Hawk8086 Right .. I had followed up on exits when we were a non-#1 seed. The #1 seed stuff is obviously much more the irritant. As you said, if we'd snuck out a couple of those, we'd be in a different place in our discussion -- if he'd lost in the FF, we'd wonder why he couldn't win the title game (though, odds say, winning one of four FF appearances is par).

@dylans Real discussion of tournament issues has nothing to do with a "pity party." I guess you don't feel the discussion has any validity. That's certainly fine but I don't see "pity" being the purpose -- the purpose is the same as all the discussions here. Love for KU basketball and enjoyment in discussing the same. Sometimes that discussion isn't all peaches and cream.

Great job EVERYONE! I know some feel frustrated at failing to persuade others, but this has been one of the most interesting airing of the basis issues I have read. Tried to Red Rooster everyone!

@HighEliteMajor I've read 3-4 posts with any ideas on how KU could've won the game by doing something differently. Bitching about Selfs record in the elite 8 while ignoring the actual matchups is asinine.

The couch coaches come out of the woodwork this time of year. Gotta prove how they know more than everyone including a hof coach. So where were you when the times were good?

Crying about a week old game while several posters are getting ready to go to chemo. Several more are going to funerals (got one this weekend for the sweetest aunt one could ever have). Others are struggling due to the markets, or related job loss. Etc is just plain silly.

If you want to cry there are good things to cry about. Time to move forward. There are good things on the horizon. Positive recruiting news, surprising player development, Bill Self year two in a new scheme that in year one got to the elite eight.

I'm looking forward to the death of the pity party and the birth of the build up of next season. Endless chances for optimism as long as Bill Self is the coach KU will have a shot.

@dylans Sorry, but your post doesn't make sense to me.

Why discuss KU basketball at all when there are so many more important things to discuss? That's somewhat you point. Actually, why discuss things that you don't think have merit, when there are more important things to discuss, might be more accurate. Or when there maybe more important things going on in certain folks' lives.

No one says this is life and death.

I always wonder the purpose of such replies, like yours ... if the discussion so offends, and is so trivial, why participate?

Seems like you're doing a lot of the trivial complaining while many others are discussing what is a very significant issue with KU basketball ... albeit not on the scale of North Korea nukes.

If you want to move forward, then move forward. Start a thread. You'll probably get a lot of takers.

@HighEliteMajor ok. Kindly keep my name out of your mouth. I'll gladly do the same for you.

@dylans I'm sorry, what is it that you mean?