@Hawk8086 My criticism assumes Preston in the fold. You ask, who could have predicted that Whitman would leave? The only person paid to make the prediction is Bill Self. It's similar to the fact that we like to give him credit for our team making shots, but we don't want to criticize when our team doesn't make shots (I find that always entertaining, because the logic, or lack of it, then diminishes his actual coaching impact; for if all that is necessary is to make shots, then why have a coach?). If you look at our rosters in the past, three post players is way, way low (Doke, Preston, Lightfoot). Self managed the roster in a way where three scholarships are taken up by transfers sitting on the bench (Lawsons + Moore). Again, that's his call. It is not unreasonable to assume that a player might get hurt (which is akin to the Preston situation now). Self gambled on transfers and lost. That's all. It seems pretty easy to accept that he shoulders the blame for our roster predicament .. given, of course, that's he's in charge of the roster.
All of that without one ounce of criticism regarding the Preston garbage.
Back to your question of who could have assumed that Whitman would leave? I could have. So could most of us here. I would assume that every player, regardless of any promises or commitments, could and might leave. If found it a bit comical when so many, with such certainty, said that Newman would not turn pro after a redshirt season because of a promise to Bill Self. They didn't know. They were believing someone's word. The fact that Newman did not turn pro does not make the consideration that someone might not keep their word incorrect. Particularly from someone, his dad, who days before he transferred said he was staying. And a reputation as a "me first" player. In fact, it would be flat stupid not to consider that Newman might not have kept his word.
In any business, you have to anticipate and play out the options before they happen. That's Bill Self's job when it comes to roster management. One comment was that it only made sense that Coleby would leave, given the way playing time was shaping up. Ok, then, that is not obvious to the boss?
Again, Self gambled and the roster juggling didn't work out as he wanted.
With transfers, players who have already shown that they will leave a school, I think the concern about them leaving is significantly heightened vs. other recruited players. And he whiffed on the three transfers. That's part of the game. You make incorrect judgments (or judgments that are on their face, correct, but prove out to be incorrect) here and there, in every business.
We should remember, as well, that an important Bill Self recruit left the program (Carlton Bragg). Who makes that judgment call on signing him, and assessing him for the program? The point is just that the buck stops somewhere, right? Just like it does with wins and successes.
We (all of us) love to exonerate Bill Self on failures, but hypocritically praise him for every success. Truth is, he bears the criticism for program failures and deserves all the credit for successes. He's the boss.
The truth is, as well, that his failures are far, far outweighed by the the successes and the extremely impressive way he handles the program. An ounce of criticism here and there should not offend. And @Hawk8086, I know you're not offended, you just opened the door.