🏀 KuBuckets Archive

@KUSTEVE @BeddieKU23 @Texas-Hawk-10

Nice summaries. I approach it from a slightly different perspective, but still end up with a similar list of contenders - which I would define as a team that is actually capable of winning 6 straight games against good to really good competition (not just making the Final Four). If history is a guide, there are a few key attributes that have been common to almost all the champions over the past 15 years or so (with the 2 most recent UConn teams being notable exceptions to most of the common elements).

First, win-loss record. Other than the UConn teams, every titleist has had 6 losses or fewer -and only two champs had that many. On the flip side, most champs has 4 or 5 losses - only two had fewer - UK in '12 and the Hawks. What that seems to suggest is that the teams were battled tested - indeed, all came from power conferences and also had a few key non-conference games.

Second, talent. For the most part, all the champions had at least one high level NBA talent on the roster and in most cases, multiple future NBA players. Again, the two recent UConn champs were probably the least talented, although the '11 team did have Kemba Walker. Having the most talent doesn't assure a title (see UK every year), but it's tough to win without superior talent.

Third, efficiency ratings. Most of the champions over the past 15 years have been in the top 10 of the Kenpom ratings (champs ended up near the top; not surprising given the quality wins in the tournament itself). Again, the two UConn teams are the exceptions. Perhaps most importantly, defensive efficiency ratings seem to be particularly key - the point made that defense wins championships. The lowest DER for any champion was UNC in '09 - #21. But, they had the top OER rating. This has implications for a few teams this year, including....

How does this shake out. On the first point, it is likely that at least 2 of the top ACC teams will have 7 losses; maybe 3 of them. UNC, Duke, Louisville have 5 losses and FSU has 6. They all have games remaining against one another and then the conference tourney. Purdue has 5 losses now. So does Baylor. Kentucky does as well, but you could see them winning out. Is this dispositive?

Talent. UK and Duke are clearly have the most future NBA talent, but that has been true in the past. UCLA may have the next most talent. The key is that several other teams have at least one likely very good NBA player (I'm looking at you JJ) or more than one who will stick in the league. That's enough given past history.

Metrics. Most of the listed contenders are fairly balanced - they have upper tier OER and DER ratings. UCLA is the outlier - they simply do not play defense at anything close to the level of a typical NCAA champion. Worrisome is that although the Hawks DER has improved a bit, esp. after Baylor, our current Kenpom DER is #28 - again, that is outside the final DER for any prior NCAA champion. We clamped down in the second half against Baylor - the question is whether the guys can continue to stay focused on the defensive end (and that may mean more minutes for Vick at the expense of Svi).

Taking them one by one:

Gonzaga. I've seen 3 of their games and I really like this team. Balanced and tougher than most prior Few teams. I think they are capable of going deep. They remind me somewhat of WSU a couple of years ago - great regular season and some quality wins (AZ, FL and ISU) - and blowing out lesser team, but have they been challenged enough to get through the gauntlet. I'm skeptical.

Villanova. They seem fully capable of winning it again - although I'm not sure they won't miss Arch and Ochefu.

AZ/Oregon - I lump them together - both have talent and clearly are capable of making E8/FF runs. But neither of them beat anyone out of conference, and they simply haven't demonstrated that they can beat teams that play a more physical style.

UK - can't write them off with the talent they have, but they are young and the talent doesn't seem Unibrow like incandescent. Watched them struggle to put away Georgia which was without its best player most of the game (Maten - who put 30 on us). They beat UNC in a shoot out, but that's it.

UNC - I'm not as high on them as some others - they aren't that good defensively (although held UVA to 41 points) - but they certainly can score and rebound well, esp. ORBs. But, it seems that they are capable of making a 6 game run.

Duke - the question is whether they are finally starting to gel and live up to the hype? They also aren't very good defensively - just gave up 90+ points to Wake Forest! - but with the talent and K's experience, they also seem fully capable of winning 6 in a row. Will be interesting to see how the last couple of weeks play out in the ACC.

Louisville/FSU - lumping them together as I think they are of a type - both have beaten several really good teams, but also inexplicable losses. Very big and athletic. I don't think they are consistent enough to win 6 games, but I think either would be really difficult match-up for the Hawks that I would like to avoid.

Purdue/Wisconsin - I'll throw in a couple of B10 teams just because, but I don't think either of them is as good as the above teams. Swanigan can dominate, but doesn't have a lot of help. Wisconsin is a nice, solid team that plays well together, but they haven't beaten anyone of consequence.

Baylor - capable of E8 (again) or FF, and they have a great collection of wins (minus one against KU, of course), but that seems to be their peak.

Okay - the Jayhawks. We've demonstrated we can beat the best teams and win close games. Yes, I think we can win 6 straight, but if I'm being honest, I also think we have a smaller margin of error than some of the other teams. We routinely allow opponents to hang around and that's a recipe for disaster in the tournament - miss a few FTs, go 2-20 from 3, or the other guys are lights out (like ISU). If DG can pick it up (I really think he is key), with JJ and BIFM, I like our chances. But, in the best case scenario, I would expect more of what we've experienced over the past month - every game within 6 points and a lot more gray hair...RCJH....

Pretty remarkable - the past 7 games have finished with no more than a 6 point spread......

"Effing huge win.......

And, block out!!!!

Cover Lecomte!!!!!!!! No 3s...

@Crimsonorblue22 said:

@DCHawker exceptin there?😉

DG a sterling 1-11 from the field - that's hard to do...

Just a great game by Frank - not just the 23 points, but the 8 assists and playing like a floor general...

Make the friggin' FTs, DG...

DG and Svi are a combined 2-15 from the field...

We're shooting 41% from the field, 5-18 from 3 and getting killed on the boards. Not sure how we are in this, but it is still within reach....

@Crimsonorblue22 said:

Dg not doing anything again

So, we need that excepting, right??? Guess we're not inside 3 minutes yet...

We got bailed again....

We got bailed there - not a good possession...

JJ has to let that one go....

@HawkChamp said:

I like Svi, but he is not having a good game and now we are down two.

Maybe a bit of an understatement???? As many TOs as points. Bad defense. Rushed shots....

Svi almost singlehandedly trying to give this game away...

@Crimsonorblue22 said:

@DCHawker except excepting does count

Fair enough - would just like the excepting to be more the norm!

Excepting the last 3 minutes and OT of the last game for DG, he and Svi have contributed nothing offensively the last 3-4 games.

Frank is going to have to carry us - no one else doing much...

They still have more offensive rebounds than we do total rebounds. Back to the old days of Frank being the leading rebounder. JJ not doing much on the boards today. Need him to provide more board support because Svi certainly isn't going to....

@stoptheflop Still only 1 FG from outside...

They have 9 offensive rebounds to our 7 total rebounds....

@HawkChamp said:

Can't keep missing open shots. If those don't start falling, we aren't leaving with a W

I think we've only made one outside shot - Vick's 3....

@stoptheflop Down to 35%.

@Bwag Probably that Svi let Motely get behind him...

LL is giving it to Svi....

@Bwag said:

@RockChalkinTexas said:

Gotta drive the lane.

That's where the strength of their D is

Yes, but they are going for the blocks and we just have to penetrate and dish - or up fake and draw fouls....

Their zone has plenty of holes in it - just need to be patient work the ball around. Issue is going to be stopping them in the paint....

If Frank and done another stop and up fake - there was a dunk for JJ...

LL 2 for his last 9 FT attempts...

@stoptheflop said:

My God, why won't Landen go up with the ball?

He tried to there, but he takes friggin' forever to gather himself and go up...

@BeddieKU23 said:

Svi playing for baylor today

He might as well help someone out - hasn't contributed much to us the last 3-4 games...

Worst is giving up the offensive rebounds - too many to count already....

@jaybate-1.0 said:

@DCHawker

Logic is a female dog to someone like you, and even to me on some occasion.

Its a fascinating thing that human's, with such extraordinary logical capacity, so often bridle at logic.

It hurts a little watching you struggle with this.

Its like watching a woman in child birth.

Alas, I can't do a C-section for you on this.

You are going to have to labor through it yourself.

I can be here and tell you to breath though.

Its so easy once you have dilated your mind enough to allow the logic to operate.

Contractions are painful though..

Accepting logic is one of the hardest things for persons, when the logic contradicts their belief.

It is especially hard when they "think" their belief is not a belief, but reasoning.

This goes to the very heart of why there is so much lying. As the trendy saying these days goes: it is easier to fool a person that convince a person that they have been fooled. I would add to that epigram that it is doubly difficult when a person has fooled him/her self.

Such a person tends to resort to the same kind of cranky, frustrated rhetoric that you appear to have used here.

But I'm cool with apparently cranky, frustrated rhetoric.

To riff on Ghandi, who said the truth is the truth, I say: the logic is the logic.

Here is the thing, all you have to do to refute the logic is find a coach and team in women's basketball that has also won 100 games, while his/her career overlapped with Auriemma's. Its so obvious. That at least appears to be why you find it so annoying. It is obvious, yet you cannot do it. Grrrrrrr.

So: you are apparently stuck with the logic that contradicts your apparent belief that you apparently fooled yourself into believing, and in turn you appear to resort to cranky, frustrated rhetoric instead of doing the easy, prudent thing and saying, of course, @jaybate 1.0, I see the logic and that's that.

I often wonder after having these sorts of discussions if the real issue didn't hinge on Board Rat A wanting to be right rather than wanting to get at the crucial insight, versus me who doesn't care about being right, but rather is most interested in learning the crucial insight. If you had had the logic on your side, well, I would have been delighted and adopted your logic and thanked you for sharing it with me. But for some reason, some folks don't like to do that.

But the important thing is KU is very near a record number of conference titles and so may be one day you will explain that to me with sound logic and I will get a chance to show you how appreciative I can be.

Rock Chalk!

Truly worthy of Aristotle, Cicero and Locke @jaybate1..0

The @jaybate-1.0 proposition:

UConn WOULD NOT HAVE won 100 consecutive games if Pat Summitt was still coaching Tennessee

The proof, the whole proof and nothing but the proof:

Well, UConn DID NOT win 100 consecutive games while she was coaching Tennessee

Rep ispa loquitor!!!!! Brilliant stuff. The logic is unassailable!!!!

@jaybate-1.0 said:

@DCHawker

Easy: no one ever won 100 straight when both were coaching.

Wow - that is truly an unimpeachable argument for the wholly unsupported assertion that UConn would not have won 100 straight games if Summitt was still alive and coaching Tennessee. The wealth of data and depth of analysis is overwhelming and compelling. I bow in supplication.....

@jaybate-1.0 Okay, I'll bite - have nothing better to do and I find some modest amusement in these engagements. I just hope no one else is wasting their time further on this thread.

But, I'll need to ask you to dumb this down for me, as your "logic" is beyond the comprehension of my small mind.

So, you started with an assertion that UConn's current winning streak would not exist if the legendary Pat Summitt had not passed and was still coaching. Of course, you are entitled to your opinion, but as someone who does follow the women's game, I thought is a remarkably uninformed opinion or assertion.

Perhaps you could be so kind as to explain the "logic" of your willingness to "bet the farm" against the streak having occurred if Summitt were still coaching??? I certainly didn't see any analysis or data the would support such a remarkable assertion, but perhaps I was failing to discern something compelling between the lines?

You asked "who thinks this would have happened if Pat Summitt had been coaching at her peak the last couple of years." Me, for one. What did I base that on? First, the simple fact that UConn and Tennessee have not played during the streak so there is nothing Summitt/Tennessee could directly have done to stop it. Second, that UConn/Auriemma had demonstrated that they could win multiple championships, go undefeated, and run-off lengthy winning streaks - of 70 and 90 games - while Summitt was coaching at her peak - and beating Tennessee on multiple occasions during her tenure.

Now perhaps your logic is that notwithstanding the fact that UConn and Tennessee had no games scheduled against one another during the current streak, that if Summitt were still coaching, it is possible that her coaching prowess would have made it more likely that Tennessee would have advanced further in the past two NCAA tournaments, and thus have had 2 opportunities to end the current UConn streak. Seems pretty thin gruel, but at least its an argument. On the other hand, Auriemma is 4-0 against Summitt in the tournament, so that is the bet odds for betting the farm.

In any event, offer context, data and analysis to support my rebuttal of your opinion/assertion. I would welcome the same from you, so I can be better educated - what is the basis for the assertion that the UConn streak would not have happened if Summitt were still coaching. I'm waiting.... And, please don't come back for the 3rd time with this Summitt-90 v. Auriemma-100 nonsense. Tennessee has not had winning streak during the time that both have coached which match the 70 or 90 game UConn winning streaks.

Then you asked can anyone name even two other "probable" Hall of Fame coaches in the women's game now - the clear implication being that there was or is no credible competition or foil to Auriemma other than Summitt - which is also nonsense. I named 3 - actually they are not probable - all 3 are in the Hall of Fame. Now I would stipulate that Auriemma and Summitt are at the top of the - ahem - summit, but each of these 3 have won championships during the Auriemma-Summitt era and the fact is that all are in the HOF.

So, again, simple question - and you are more than then welcome to the last word - what is the basis of your view that UConn would not have its current winning streak if Summitt were still coaching - hopefully specifically addressing the factual information I provided?

@HighEliteMajor said:

This is one of those games on the schedule that is generally meaningless for Kansas. An expected loss. If take care of the rest of our business, it doesn't matter because of the quality of the competition and being on the road. If we win, does our star really shine that much brighter? Folks that know Kansas wouldn't be surprised if we won, so not sure we get much of a bump. We're #1 seed no matter what happens with this game, as long as we go 3-1 or 4-0 in the final games, and get to the conference tourney finals.

Not sure I would characterize it as meaningless, but Baylor should reasonably be expected to hold serve on its home court. Even with the L, we would still have a one game lead would be in control of our own destiny for #13 and a #1 seed. But, how high is the confidence level that we go 3-1 or 4-0 is the final 4 games? Stillwater has been almost as problematic as Morgantown for us. Texas feels like a potential trap game? And, while we would typically chalk up OU and TCU at AFH as easy wins, nothing has been easy for this group this year - has been quite a while since we've had a comfortable win, even at AFH.

Even with losses at Baylor and OSU, we should still do no worse than a tie for the conference title. But, 3 more losses (if one in the conference tournament) would imperil a #1 seed - esp. if Baylor has tied for the title and we've split - they've had the better overall strength of schedule and I'm skeptical that the B12 ends up with 2 #1 seeds.

@jaybate-1.0 I give up!!!!! Summitt/Tennessee DID NOT have a 90 game winning streak. In addition to the current 100 game winning streak, UConn/Auriemma has had 70 and 90 game winning streaks, both while Summitt was coaching Tennessee. Your assertion at the outset that the current streak would not have occurred if Summitt was still coaching is simply ludicrous - first and foremost because Tennessee and UConn have not played one another during the streak so she, if still with us, couldn't have done anything about it, and UConn/Auriemma demonstrated it was fully capable of long winning streaks - 70 and 90 games - while Summitt was still coaching at Tennessee. The 90 game streak was bookended by losses to Stanford, not Tennessee.

@JayHawkFanToo is right - more than enough on this topic - we have the Baylor game tomorrow to worry about....

@jaybate-1.0 Seriously??? Auriemma/UConn had the 90 game winning streak from 2008-2010....But I bow to your vastly superior knowledge of the women's game - except for the unawareness of the previous UConn winning streak or any other women's coaches not named Geno or Pat....

@jaybate-1.0 I concede - the strength of your assertion, I mean argument, is unassailable. UConn and Auriemma could only generate a 90 game winning streak during Summitt's tenure. Clearly they were incapable of extending it another 10 games because she was still coaching Tennessee - although funny that it was ended by Stanford and not Tennessee.

Of course, you are right - it is obvious to any rationale person that the current winning streak could not have happened if Summitt was still coaching - although funny that the annual game between the 2 teams ended in 2007. and UConn beat 27 ranked teams during the streak....

@jaybate-1.0 Uh, you are just wrong. Their careers substantially overlapped. Summit started coaching a decade earlier, but didn't retire until 2012. While Summit's passing due to Alzheimer's was a tragedy and she is clearly one of the top 2 women's coaches ever, Auriemma and UConn were winning titles long before the onset of the disease. UConn's first of 11 titles under Auriemma was in '95. Tennessee set the bar starting in the mid-80s and UConn raised that bar in the early 2000s. Summit won her 8 championships while he was coaching. He won 7 of his 11 (and counting) when she was coaching. UConn also had another 90 game win streak that ended in 2010 (loss to Stanford). So, it is patently false that to state as you do that he didn't do "it" when Summitt was coaching.

As to other Hall of Fame women's coaches, Trish Vanderveer, the Stanford coach, is an obvious one - 2 title and 7 additional Final Fours during the Summitt-Auriemma "era." Muffet McGraw at Notre Dame is another - 1 title and 6 other Final Fours, including 3 runners-up during the same time frame. Kim Mulkey of Baylor is headed there - coaching just since 2000 and has 2 titles - one an undefeated 40-0 team.

@HawkChamp said:

@CRH107 why coach doesn't use Coleby more ill never understand. Carlton plays weak - that's all there is to it. He doesn't show much fight down low. Give me Coleby any day of the week.

Wholeheartedly agree. Bring in Bragg for spell minutes at the 4, mostly for giving the guards (JJ) at blow and also for match purposes, but use Coleby as the primary bench minutes guy for LL - can give you 8+- minutes per game and 5 fouls. He can only score on put backs, but that's okay for a couple of minutes a half.

@BeddieKU23 said:

I read that KU had 3 field goals at one point in the 2nd half before scoring 34 points in the last 3 minutes of regulation and overtime. I mean improbable comeback doesn't even do it justice. West Virginia had us dead in the water. If it wasn't for some timely missed FT's by them and some timely made 3's and forced turnovers we would have met our demise. Insane finish, no other way to put it.

Yeah - I had posted in the game thread that we had just 3 field goals through the first 15 minutes - 2 by JJ and the other I believe was Frank. Missed bunnies and 3 point shots well off the mark - mostly front rim. Shooting 30% from the field. We were dead in the water - until we weren't.

Insane, or inexplicable turnaround - esp. the 4 deep 3 pointers made by DG in the last 2 minutes and OT - after he had done nothing all game. We erased a 14 point lead in just over 2 minutes - and 21 point turnaround in 4 minutes against a quality opponent. Still not sure it really happened????????

When the euphoria wears off, I think we'll look back and conclude we really had no business winning that game. DG stunk for 37 minutes and then made 4 ridiculous 3s from deep, falling away, down the stretch. And, while our press created a couple of TOs, a couple were complete gifts.

But, not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. Extraordinary effort and turnaround and a win is a win is a....

@JayHawkFanToo said:

Huggy is not happy...

Funny that....

@JayHawkFanToo said:

I told you it would be either the worst loss or the best comeback...

Well, it was the worst 37 minutes I've seen at Allen - and among the most remarkable last 3 minutes + OT.

WTF was Mitch doing challenging that last 3 pt shot. Could have been a 4 point play..... Just whew.....

Not over yet. Have to protect the ball and make FTs...

They're going one on one now - completely out of their half court sets...

Can't score all game and then 21 points in less than 3 minutes....