🏀 KuBuckets Archive

@drgnslayr Andrew White chose KU because he doesn't want playing time ....

@icthawkfan316 Right, Biancardi's logic seems backward. Unless he was waiting to see what Embiid was doing, why wait? If AZ was in the mix, maybe waiting to see if Tarc returned. Still, Biancardi's logic is not sound there with the Texas conclusion. If it was Texas, why wait? Doesn't seem like the stuff of insiders.

Three of Five say Graham to Kansas:

Devonte Graham

Biancardi: Kansas
The hardest and most important position on the floor to fill is the point guard. Graham’s combination of running a team with extended range on his jumper makes him so valuable. An explosive athlete who has come on as a late bloomer has coaches pouring in to Brewster Academy. In the mix are Kansas, NC State, Virginia, Providence , Xavier and Virginia Tech. He is visiting Kansas this weekend and then heading NC State soon. This one is just starting to heat up, and when it’s all said and done, look for Kansas to land Graham.

Finkelstein: Kansas
I’m a big believer in the importance of the first visit and Graham’s decision to see the Jayhawks first would seem to indicate that Kansas is in the driver’s seat. Combine that with the opportunity to play rotation minutes next season and then have a potential chance to start as a sophomore and Graham is going to hear a convincing sales pitch from Self.

Francisco: NC State
After signing with Appalachian State, Graham has seen his recruiting pick up steam at a remarkable rate. After getting his release from his LOI, the savvy lead guard now has the likes of Kansas, NC State and Providence chipping at his heels for his signature. Although the lure of being under the tutelage of Self and his staff is enticing, Graham will see a greater opportunity -- after Tyler Lewis bolted to Butler -- of returning to his hometown and suiting up for NC State.

Rankin: NC State
Graham is a true point guard who is crafty and brings the ability to push the ball, run the offense and make plays off the bounce. He also can knock down open jumpers to keep the defense honest. When Graham was released by Appalachian State he became the most sought-after perimeter player at the most important position. I think he will take his talent back to his hometown of Raleigh, N.C., and sign with NC State. He will compete with Anthony Barber for the starting job.

Stovall: Kansas
Graham just became the most recruited player in the country after his release from Appalachian State. He will have a lot of great choices. History says Self and Kansas are tough to beat when they single in on one player. My guess is the Jayhawks.

Four of Five analysts at ESPN predict Turner to Texas:

Myles Turner

Paul Biancardi: Texas
The hard part begins as Turner must start to separate the schools in his mind and make one choice. The process has gone exactly how Turner had planned -- take all his official visits, then decide. Because he has waited -- even though he could have committed at any time to the likes of Duke, Arizona and Kansas -- makes me guess that he will stay home and be the face of the Longhorns program.

Adam Finkelstein: Kansas
I think the allure of replacing Joel Embiid at Kansas will ultimately be too much for Turner to pass up on given coach Bill Self's track record of developing big men for the NBA. Turner will have as good an opportunity to be a one-and-done lottery pick as any player in the current ESPN 100, all while having an enforcer like Cliff Alexander next to him.

Joel Francisco: Texas
Turner has thoroughly investigated his options. He is one of the elite prospects in the class who will make an immediate impact because of his shot-blocking and outside shooting touch. Though Kansas lost Embiid to the draft and has a glaring need at center, Texas is the school to beat, despite having everyone back along the front line. Turner has tremendous upside but still is far from a finished product as compared to Jahlil Okafor. Turner needs to work on getting stronger and his post skills are still raw as he enters college. Possibly coming off the bench will give Turner time to develop and Texas provides that as veterans Cameron Ridley and Jonathan Holmes could be excellent mentors.

Reggie Rankin: Texas
Turner is still evaluating programs and observing how he will fit in with other high-level players, but I am predicting he will select the Longhorns when it's all said and done. Turner has visited Austin enough to connect with the coaches and players, and his family will be able to see him play on a consistent basis as well. The Longhorns are one of the youngest teams in the country, and with Turner they undoubtedly will make another huge jump forward from a team that already has played in the NCAA tournament. I have nothing to base this on other than a gut feeling.

John Stovall: Texas
Turner is by far the most impactful recruit left on the board. He is a program-changer and can make the right school an instant contender for the national title. His ability to take away the rim defensively and score both on the low post and perimeter make him a unique weapon in college basketball. After being pursued by every school under the sun, my guess is Turner chooses to stay close to home and attend Texas.

@truehawk93 "If I get another response of a poster saying how spoiled we are because we expect NC all the time, I'll scream. Yes, we expect them. But I don't think a NC every 4-5 years is impossible, difficult, yes, but not impossible. Again, it's the system and the player. The key is getting them together."

Excellent quote. I think our expectations should reasonably be what UConn has achieved. Why expect less? I can guarantee you that Duke, UK, and UNC fan bases, by and large, expect the same thing.

Is it unrealistic to think Self could win 3 titles in the next 10 seasons? Nope.

@icthawkfan316 - "Now we'd like him to take an even bigger step back and perhaps lessen the chances of success for a whole year in order to better set up future squad's for success?"

When it comes to the NCAA tourney, there are Cinderella runs. Like this season. The common denominator is that top 15 programs win the title. We are in that group. So even if Self sacrificed a bit, there is still that chance of catching fire in March.

But you're right, some seasons are not as good as others.

And you know my posts on KU winning it all back around Christmas and the optimism, glass half full stuff -- those serve a different purposes than this post.

But this team very well could have won the title. Would that have changed my mind on presumed OADs with Self? Absolutely.

Presumed OADs work with Calipari. That seems to be proven.

@icthawkfan316 I don't recall Tarc being a presumed OAD, do you?

@Wigs2 Ah, another topic that I am presently working on. System, suggestions, the whole nine yards. I went back and read a number of other posters' opinions. Trying to coalesce everything.

But I am not satisfied with the development of Tharpe. Everyone doesn't develop. But look at point #6 above -- recruiting to strengths. Tharpe was the wrong type of recruit. Not a nice fit in Self's system, particularly defensively. I am satisfied with Ellis. We could handle Ellis' defensive issues if he were the only sub-par defender on the floor.

Just as the Josh Selby deal should discourage us from OADs (notice I didn't make that argument), Tharpe's regression shouldn't tell us we shouldn't recruit and develop as a philosophy.

And on your second question, no, it wasn't Shepherd vs. Wiggins. The Shepherd deal was an example comparing to Embiid (a non presumed OAD). Could be Jermaine Lawrence. Pick a generic top 50ish. The point being, would you rather have Shepherd or Lawrence, for ex., for 3 or 4 years, or Embiid for one? You would still recruit high end talent, just not guys that are presumed OADs. That's it.

@drgnslayr As a coach, Self has all the info on recruits. He knows what they want. What they expect. What they're looking for. I would simply say that he should pass on guys that say, "I'm want to turn pro after one season", or if he believes that is very likely.

We knew Wiggins, we knew Selby, we knew Xavier, right?

We knew many of the guys we didn't get, right?

Of course, it's not an exact science.

Try this -- does anyone think that we cannot win titles unless we spend significant time recruiting presumed OADs?

@wissoxfan83 - "One commenter was writing about "Shelden" and another was writing about "Frankston". It wasn't HEM either .. "

Uh, thanks, I think.

@Wigs2 You're missing the point. My point is not about the micro analysis of what failed our team in 2013-14, but rather a system-wide approach. I am not saying Lawrence would have helped us significantly in 2013-14. I'm saying I'd rather have him for 3 or 4 seasons, developing in our system as a high talent guy, than any OAD power forward.

@KirkIsMyHinrich - Remember, 5 stars doesn't mean presumed OAD. It is an excellent list. I looked at all title rosters before I posted this. But Rivals, for example, has guys rated as five stars all the way to #30 sometimes.

You cite Florida, for example. Horford was the #36 player in his class, Noah #75, and Brewer #31. For UConn in 2011, Walker was #14 in his class, and Jeremy Lamb #76.

I was not able to look at info on Gordon and Okafer from 2004 as far as whether they were presumed one and done.

But the only player on your list that was a presumed one and done, and stayed, to my knowledge, was Sean May (other than Rush). When coach K recruited Kyle Singler, he got a two year minimum commitment as I recall. He had done that in the past before reverting to the OAD strategy. Nolan Smith who you cite was #39 in his class. Chalmers and Arthur were never presumed OADs. Zeller was #33. Davis #15. Never OAD discussion. Hansbrough stayed all four years.

Lawson was a discussed possible OAD, as was Ellington. But not presumed.

Not like Wiggins, Gordon, Randle, Parker, Noel, Muhammad, Beal, etc.

Look at your list. It is an argument against presumed OADs, right? Where are the title winners with OADs -- freshmen -- that play, win a title, and leave?

A few things here in follow-up:

I dedicated a paragraph to Brandon Rush because it's an interested contrast. On one hand, @drgnslayr said that we don't win if we don't recruit presumed OAD Rush. On the other hand, Rush was not a freshman OAD when we won the title. The assumption is that we don't win the title without Rush. Can't assume that. Maybe Micah Downs sticks around. But we do know, for sure, that Rush was a junior when we won and was not an OAD.

@ralster hit on some excellent points, and I'm glad he noticed what I was trying to say. This is not an analysis of possible changes to Self's system, it an analysis assuming Self sticks with his system -- what is best for KU, with Self, and Self's system. I don't think presumed OADs are the best formula.

@Wigs2 - Why do you think Self has missed on some top 50ish guys (I might stray into the 60s)? How much recruiting attention is given to the top guys, the OAD range guys, the elite of the elite? I don't think for one second that the #20 guy is going to have a second thought about coming to KU if we're not recruiting the OAD group. Actually, I think those guys would be more flattered that they are the focus and the priority. Just a thought, but do you think Jermaine Lawrence might have given us more consideration if we weren't pounding the pavement for Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon, and if he knew we wouldn't be recruiting over him trying to land Cliff Alexander and Myles Turner in the post? The logic there, at least to me, seems pretty sound.

@ParisHawk - Ok, it was you. Credit where credit is due. I was very close to sending in my trademark request ... you better move quickly. On the subject, don't look at what you think might have happened, or whether you blame Wiggins or the lack of Embiid for the Stanford loss (you know where I stand on why we lost that particular game, and it wasn't OAD related). But take a broader look. What, philosophically, is best for this program? For coach Self's system? Would you rather have Xavier Henry in year one, or Travis Releford in years three and four of eligibility? No slam against X, he did fine. But I'd rather have those two seasons of play from Releford, with what he brought to the table. OADs will happen. McLemore happened. But McLemore is the exact range of player to recruit.

The thing is, if we've seen anything in the last 14 or 15 season of NCAA tourney play, it is that the combination of experience, talent, and chemistry, and being a top 15 program, are the main ingredients to nearly ever title winner. And not by coincidence, only two times where OADs were the main focus ('Cuse '03/UK 2012).

When Andrew Wiggins signed, my perhaps short-sighted opinion was that I would have preferred that he signed elsewhere. My position was that unless KU won the national championship, the OAD drama would not be worth it. Since then, I have tried to keep my mind open, and assess after all of the information was available. It is a very difficult subject. I do understand that perhaps no one agrees with me.

My discussion is about presumed OADs – like Andrew Wiggins, Xavier Henry, and Josh Selby. Not guys that are recruited and then become OADs, like Ben McLemore and Joel Embiid. It’s a different discussion. My focus is on the presumed OADs only. The guys who become OADs their first season are a collateral issue.

There are two very difficult elements. First, if a player is a presumed OAD he might not actually be an OAD. He might play two seasons. Second, how do you ignore the top talent? Do you really just take a pass on the Andrew Wiggins, Derrick Roses, and Anthony Davises of the basketball world?

At Kansas, my conclusion is that the OAD drama is not worth it. Here’s why –

1. Mid-Major Success: One thing that has been obvious over the years is that mid-majors can have great success against high major teams. We’ve seen VCU, George Mason, and Butler make final four runs with literally no top 100 players. Of course, none has won the title. That is important. How long has it been since a non-top 15 program won a national title? But the general ingredients to mid-major success has been experience, coaching, and chemistry. All of that can be done without OADs. The point is, experienced low ranked players can exceed the success gained by high ranked, less experienced players. It has happened many, many times.

2. High Level Talent: This is perhaps the most important fact in my mind -- Kansas is a position to harvest high level, non-OAD talent. So in contrast to the mid-majors, KU has the ability to snag multiple players in the top 50. In fact, if coach Self decided to ignore OADs, imagine the additional amount of time and resources he could focus on the next tier of players – guys generally 10ish or so through 50? If that high level talent knew that coach Self saw them as the priority, and that coach Self was not going to recruit over them with the ultra-talented OAD who would demand immediate playing time, it is my suspicion that he could dominate that range of player. If you’re Karviar Shepherd (I love using this guy as an example – but just think generically) and you know coach Self isn’t going after Okafer or Turner due to his philosophical approach, wouldn’t you be more apt to consider Kansas?

3. Chase For OADs Compromises System: Coach Self is a system coach. He is not John Calipari. The chase for OADs compromises coach Self’s system. OADs mean that coach Self is going to have to teach a green freshman his system, and that freshman is going to be counted upon to thrive in Self’s system. And it’s not just a starting freshman, it’s starting freshmen -- more than one. The freshmen are going to have to learn, adapt, and thrive in a very short time. We saw that struggle this past season. This could apply to any freshman. But because of the high attention focus on OADs, the pressure is greater. The patience less. The window smaller. Everything is a hyper-focus. As a system coach, Coach Self needs guys that will thrive in his system. OADs have to learn and adapt immediately, and have to fit. If you have a system coach, the OAD player runs counter to the philosophy. A system is learned and absorbed. 2012 was an excellent example. We had players that fit Self’s system. Excellent defense; strong, top 50 post players; big, athletic guards; and years of knowledge in the system.

4. Merry Go Round: Not sure who here coined the OAD Merry Go Round phrase. For a minute, I thought it was me. But I have my doubts now. Regardless, the OAD Merry Go Round creates tremendous stress to produce in each recruiting class. This applies to presumed OADs, as well as those developing into OADs -- coach Self has to be ready to replace those that develop into OADs as well. That will happen. So to bringing in presumed OADs simply increases the Merry Go Round’s speed. With the OAD Merry Go Round, if coach Self swings and misses, huge holes will exist. And a swing and miss might just be the #40 player that isn’t quite ready to start his freshman season. The player that needs to develop a bit before contributing in Self's system. The OAD Merry Go Round demands that a “starter” ready player be recruited, and signed. Otherwise, you might start Jamari Traylor. Look at this past season. Embiid is gone. What happens if we sign the #40 power forward this season, instead of starter ready Cliff Alexander? We have a guy that will likely struggle. However, if we have a top 50 guy as a junior, and another top 50 guy developing as a freshman, we have a relatively seamless transition. OADs throw that out of whack.

5. Discourages Top Talent: Imagine that you are the #50 player, say an Andrew White clone. You have been fed the sales job. Then you see what has happened to Andrew White at KU. If you are the #50 player, presumably a major “get” for any program, including KU, why bother? Why take the risk that you will be recruited over? Of course, a player can always be recruited over. But at a KU, if we are on the OAD Merry Go Round, it is the goal. The goal is Andrew Wiggins. The goal is the best player. At other universities, the risk is substantially less. By a long shot. Look at our 2014 recruiting class. Neither player is one that we can reasonably assume will be here down the road in 2015-16. Where is the core of players to develop, particularly in the post?

6. Recruiting To Strengths: Coach Self is a system coach as noted above. Anyone who disagrees is either a chronic contrarian, or delusional. What does coach Self value? Among other things, stout man to man defense, valuing the ball, an offense premised on post entry, and aggressive perimeter players. Those are the four subjects he talks about most. So why not simply recruit talent to fit the system? Recruit to fit Self’s style of play. We may want to change his system, but the chances of that are remote. So why swim upstream? Very importantly, learning the Self system is a process. It takes time. We all know that. Like the quote in Remember The Titans (regarding the veer offense) -- like novacaine, give it time, it always works. But time -- and learning, and adapting, and changing to fit the system – that is a long-shot for the OAD. The chances that occurs in one freshman season is way, way low. Wiggins is literally the first freshman to play the lead role. He’s a freak. But even with that, we saw the potholes of placing the keys in the hands of a freshman. Self is simply at his best with guys who have been in the system. Recruit guys (including transfers) to develop in the system. The perfect examples – Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, Sherron Collins, Marcus/Markieff Morris, Jeff Withey, Thomas Robinson, Wayne Selden. Highly ranked, highly talented, fit the system to a “T”, and were nowhere near OAD status (never saw Selden that way, fyi). Give me the guy that earns his way into the lottery, not the guy that is already there when he steps onto campus.

7. Compromises Development: Ask yourself this – how far would Brannen Greene be in his development, right now, if he simply started from day one instead of Wiggins? Now, we have nothing to show for Andrew Wiggins. I would argue that Brannen Greene would be significantly farther along than he is now. Generally, the more guys play, the more experience they gain, the more they become comfortable, the more they develop, and more successful they can be. The most common argument to support Andrew Wiggins’ time at KU is that it has opened the door to more presumed OADs. Hop on the Merry Go Round. I get zero satisfaction in discussing that we have signed Cliff Alexander. He’s gone after one season. Don’t buy the silly chatter that he might stay for a second season. You can’t assume that. Self will have to replace him with another highly talented, starter ready guy – or we will be starting Traylor, Lucas, or Mickelson.

8. Brandon Rush: I’ve heard this a thousand times, so many times it deserves its own paragraph – “Well, Brandon Rush was a presumed OAD.” Right. But he wasn’t an OAD. Self won a national title when Brandon Rush was a junior. Not a freshman. This is a guy who developed in Self’s system. There were no OADs on our title team. Ok, then – “Well, see, you have to recruit OADs. Rush was a presumed OAD. Self can’t win a national title without presumed OAD talent.” If the argument is that Self can’t win a national title without presumed OAD talent, seriously, he is nowhere near the coach we think he is. We should fire Self now then. This is all a waste of time. Has there really been a time in the tournament when we have lost, where we could sit back and say, “We had less talent than our opponent”? One time. UK in 2012. But there is a valid argument there – “Couldn’t a presumed OAD change his mind and stay?” Sure, he could. Regardless, that creates the high percentage uncertainty a “no presumed OAD” approach would largely guard against. You don’t want to bank on Jabari Parker hanging around.

9. OAD Drama: Is it worth it? This is personal taste, and I have no appetite for it. I despise the idea that Andrew Wiggins came to KU as a pit stop. It was a stop over. The hype with Wiggins was sickening. It was everywhere – KC Star, kusports.com, twitter, ESPN, CBS Sports. Everywhere. And it never ended. There was some game this season where Ellis scored 32. The ESPN scroll didn’t even mention him. Referenced Wiggins scoring 17. Ridiculous. Wiggins, of course, was much different than the hype. This is not about Wiggins the person, but it is about the distraction, drama, and hype surrounding the presumed OADs. We saw different rules for Wiggins this season. We saw him loaf, we saw him refuse to dive on the floor (only twice the entire season), we saw him coast. But we rarely saw him find the bench for his failures. There were a few, but there were clearly “Wiggins rules” in the first half of the season. That is natural with an ultra-talented player.

10. OADs Have Not Equaled Titles: Name the OAD that has been a starter on a national title winner? Carmelo Anthony in 2002-03, 11 seasons ago. And UK’s crew in 2012. That is it. Ironically, we have lost to both in title games. But this is not the most reliable formula for success. To the contrary, teams that have more experience seem to have the better formula. They are better teams. They have better chemistry. They advance in March. The absolute best players don’t necessarily make the best team. The junior who was ranked #60 is a developed weapon. The #5 ranked player, the presumed OAD, is a developing weapon as a freshman. Standing alone, you still might take the freshman. But as part of a team, a cohesive unit, it might not be the best choice. History says it is not. And history says titles aren't won with OADs at the helm.

Why can’t this work? Why can’t coach Self simply limit his recruiting to players that are not presumed OADs? He can. He can make that choice. The result would be a stronger program in long run. A program that could focus on highly talented, longer term players, and thus players that will function better with our system coach. If Self can stack the deck with top 50ish, non OAD talent, the result will be a team that has a better chance to succeed under coach Self’s leadership and style. It will also be a roster closer to the composition of NCAA champions in the last decade plus. It will be a roster best suited for coach Self. I want titles. And I am convinced that the OAD Merry Go Round is not the best model for success at KU.

@konkeyDong I had heard we're out on Brunson now, meaning we decided to jump out. The Katz corner show a while back, I think. Now KU isn't listed on ESPN. But we'll see.

@drgnslayr I agree .. he is nuts if he stays. Two years of eligibility left, worked is a** off last off season, has hardly played, and there are five perimeter players ahead of you. I can't even fathom a scenario where he stays.

@drgnslayr I am a bit puzzled, as @icthawkfan316 said, that we have had no transfer news yet. Would have expected it by now.

@JayHawkFanToo Uh ... Turner. I want to really hear the logic from the guy who votes for Graham.

Could I possibly go back in time and get Jermaine Lawrence in the 2013 class, and skip Turner now?

Just info -

ESPN Top 60 for 2015 Point Guards:

-#23 Alonzo Trier - We're recruiting him.

-#32 Jalen Brunson, #55 Kendall Small, and #60 Nick Noskoviak - We are not recruiting them.

This is not a move where Self would be planning on this guy starting. Cannot even imagine that. It's for depth.

@FarSideHawk brings up a good point. Why get Graham now? Very importantly, the 2015 class has just two top 50 point guards. When Tharpe graduates, we would be left then with just two ball handlers, Mason and CF. If we are going to get a lower ranked guy, why not get him now so by 2015-16 he'll have a year under his belt?

Hmmm ... where would Milton Doyle be now if he stayed?

I'm interested, though, in when the transfer news is coming. One spot open. Trying to land Graham and Turner.

@dylans You may be right .. I hope not. I was kind of hoping that Tharpe might have graduated and he could transfer without sitting out. Being completely harsh here, we'd be better off without the distraction or temptation of even playing him.

@ralster Excellent analysis. Very enjoyable read.

"In summary: Combo guard, by definition, implies "competence" in ball-handling as well as scoring. This type of player is a more complete player."

Ok, then. I do think we would all agree by that summary that the term "combo-guard" is way overused. Let's go with your definition. It is more exclusive than what is the common usage (i.e., the high level ball handling).

One thing by observation then -- has Self ever had a pure point guard here other than Miles (who he inherited)? Heck, Russell Robinson was a 2 guard coming in. It seems that every guard has been called a combo guard -- even Tharpe -- particularly when he fails.

Something like, "Well, he's never really played point guard. He's learning the position."

How many times have we heard that?

So the idea here is NOT to have a prototypical point guard? The drive and dish guy. The creator.

I will respectfully disagree here with the conclusion (while still enjoying the astute analysis).

Self's system, in my opinion, desperately needs a pure point guard. @jaybate 's "P3". But let's not get too caught up in the detail. Bobby Hurley was a pure point guard, but he scored. Best college point guard in recent times, in my opinion. We're just talking a guy that will look to pass first, has the developed skill to create for others, has the ability to handle under duress, can get to the rack and finish, and can hit the three at a reasonable rate.

I saw Mason on an upward trajectory -- better three point shooting near the end of the season (ended the same as Selden), was creating more on drives, and was more in control. Heck, he demonstrated more "learning" than Tyshawn Taylor did in three seasons.

@dylans I'm sorry, did you say "Tharpe will be the senior starter ..."?

This is always an interesting discussion.

First, we have never not had a point guard. The us of the phrasing "combo-guard" is silly. Malik Newman is a combo-guard. That only means that he's a 2 guard, that can play some point -- and has played point at either AAU or high school.

But not D-1. Again, not D-1.

Either you can be a point guard, or not. The position of point guard comes before and is more critical than any other position on the floor. The skill set of handling the ball under **extreme duress ** is the first hoop a team must jump through to have success. If that base skill is not present, your chances of winning are limited. Once a ball handling limitation is spotted, a good coach will exploit it.

How often was there talk of Selden playing the point as a combo guard? Too often. And we saw that he has very limited ball handling ability. So limited that he was moved out of the 2 guard spot in the press break.

It is why coach Self, in the fall of 2012, said we need to sign "a point guard." When he already had CF signed, and Tharpe on the roster. Ball handling is the know all, say all.

There are only 2 listed point guards in the ESPN top 100 for 2015. It is why coach Self is beating the bushes right now for a "point guard." It's all about competent ball handling. If he doesn't score a ball handler, he might go into 2015-16 with just Mason and Frankamp.

Malik Newman is a 2 guard. I would not project him to be a point guard option at all. The only time I would assume that is when we actually see it. Until then, he's a 2 guard.

Personally, I think Mason is the real deal. I wouldn't read anything into Self search for another point guard now other than depth, and that a player will transfer to open the spot up.

If Mason does not open as the starter next season, I'll be surprised.

@ralster Ah, terrific point. "Why did a Self-coached team (2008) demolish opposing zone defenses with ease, while another Self-coached team (2013), got really upended by zone-D's? This 2013 team just didnt have it."

Which goes to my point on our zone offense and our defensive inadequacies.

Look, a team of Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh would destroy any college zone. Why? They are better players.

On a continuum, 2008 was better than this year's team.

So, do you run the same "stuff" with the 2013-14 Jayhawks as you would with Lebron James' team? Or with the experienced bunch we had in 2008?

That's all I'm saying. And your example was very helpful. You can't run a spread offense if your quarterback isn't accurate. You can't stick with man to man defense when you have two black holes in your starting crew.

You stay in man to man and you are an historically bad defensive team (under Self)? Is that rational?

You can pass the ball around the perimeter looking for entry passes against Stanford, with a poor three point shooting team, missing your best post player, and against a team with bigger guys. Or you can adjust your attack.

Your best player gets six shots. Six. How do you get Wiggins open? Screen against the zone aggressively to create open looks. Move him to different spots. Change angles in which he cuts to receive the ball (for example, cut from baseline to wing).

See, your statement is essentially one that figuratively throws up its hands and says, we can't win (envisioning Adrian in Rocky III).

There are other options than just sticking with Self ball. I suggested one before the tourney. I said that we would not win playing Self ball without Embiid. I suggested we play a UNC type game - fast, create more possessions, focus on offense, etc.

I ask this, as I have asked of others -- please give me a comprehensive defense of Self's offensive attack against Stanford. Tell me why the approach was sound. I am truly all ears.

@ralster Go back to the VCU game. What stood out to you? Generally?

What stood out to me was the pace of the game, how we were "outathleted", how we had difficulty defending on the wing, how we struggled to get open scoring looks.

The final point -- struggling to get open scoring looks -- was the same problem vs. Stanford. VCU had a nice game plan for making life difficult on us.

I would caution you not to just assume that all "1 for 7" shooting nights are the same. Look at Wiggins vs. Stanford. They had him locked down. He was 1 of 6. It was a masterful defensive gameplan that left us with contested looks.

I keep harping on Self's comments after the game. He mentioned that our shots were always contested vs. Stanford. Right. One of Self's main keys is defensive field goal percentages. That helps define defensive success. It's controllable to a degree by how much you contest shots. System, strategy, and scheme did not permit us to get open shots.

Back to VCU. Part of the problem there, I have argued, was personnel. I know there are Brady supporters. But we all know upon reflection that there were simply games that he could not hang. The VCU game was one of those games.

And vs. UNI, ask yourself -- why should we even be in this sort of game? I direct your attention to the game at Texas Tech this season. The UNI game and TT games were the same. The opposing coach directly and masterfully controlled tempo, and isolated matchups. We had no answer.

Famously against UNI we began to press in the last couple of minutes.

But in all instances, we stand around after a made basket waiting for the designated player to the throw the ball in. Pushing the ball after a made basket is a very simple way to change the pace of the game. Further, how often did anyone see us trapping the ball against Stanford, UNI, or Texas Tech? Another way to speed up the game. If folks want to stand around a bit on offense, trap the ball randomly. Make them work.

My point is that we just do what we do. We run our offense, we play our defense. We have some excellent scripted plays.

Vs. UNI we had the better team. Well make them freaking play with us. We played their game. We played TT's game. We played Stanford's game.

We never attempt to isolate and create matchups on the block. How often did teams switch ball screens on us? Quite a few. How often did Wiggins then take his smaller defender to the block? Can't think of one, can you? Can you remember Taylor doing it with a smaller guard? Nope. I do remember Releford doing it a few times -- hazy on that. But I recall it.

Look at the NC game Monday. UK is down 15, almost out of it. Calipari switches to a zone. Why? To change the dynamic of the game. My first question at that time was, "would coach Self have done the same thing?" Would coach Self have pressed at that point? Would he trap Napier? It was the first half.

History tells us almost certainly that coach Self would not have done anything until the second half. Most of the time, it's not until deeper into the second half.

Would coach Self adjust at some point, or try something at some point? Sure. He made a brilliant move to a triangle and 2 vs. UNC in our 2012 title game run. And it wasn't too late. Perfect timing. That season he had to get creative some because of our lack of depth. Great coaching job.

It is hard. Because sticking with his game many, many times prevails. Look at UNC last season. We're getting our ass kicked by UNC in the first half. Self keeps going to Withey. Bingo.

This highlights my point. It is subtle. Self generally just moves to alternative means much later than some other coaches. And it has cost him. That's all this is about.

@drgnslayr - Very nice post.

It appears that the new NBA commissioner is intent on making some changes. That is good.

It's a slippery slope. Once breached, it won't end.

You have militant folks (Jay Bilas) that argue that the NCAA is a "cartel" and are engaged in price fixing. He believes that each institution should be able to bid on players. If the NCAA limits that bidding, then it is guilty of collusion.

We love KU hoops. This is the biggest threat to what we love.

@JRyman Right, right .. I don't know what came over me there. He'd probably make Ridley the back up to Turner and bring him off the bench.

@Lulufulu85 You are clearly a blue pill guy. No shame in that.

After the Stanford game, you were "ALL CAPS" upset with my criticism.

Why don't you defend coach Self, then? Tell me what he did right against Stanford. Sit down, analyze the game, and tell why his game plan was a winner. Tell me why it was his players that lost the game.

And when you do, don't reference "missed shots." Coach Self was very clear after the game that our shots in the post were highly contested. And that we always had a hand in our face. Tell me why his strategy and scheme were not the problem. Tell me why his best player gets 6 shots the entire game? Tell me why we see Kentucky shift to a zone defense in the NC game, completely change the momentum after UConn was up 15? Tell me why Calipari can make such a change, and Self can't? Tell me why Self continued to play Tharpe? Tell me why our zone offense is so stagnant?

If you want to defend coach Self, then defend him.

Can you imagine Texas with Cameron Ridley and Myles Turner as twin towers against Ellis and Alexander, both listed at 6'8?

Turner can hit from outside, too. I would imagine Ellis getting torched by Turner, who he'd have to guard; and Alexander holding his own but getting fouled up a bit by the bigger Ridley.

I would say that this could swing the Big 12 title, if that mattered ....

Has anyone noticed there are only a couple top 50 2015 point guards -- total?

Yikes.

Devonte Graham -- Trey Burke, Shabazz Napier. If he's one of those, I'm in.

@HawkInMizery You have your Missouri fan wife singing rock chalk Jayhawk? You are a true patriot.

@MoonwalkMafia So are you doing graduate work there? I recall that you worked in downtown Lawrence at a restaurant for a while, correct? -- the "Tyler Roberson was completely disinterested" information.

@wissoxfan83 Excellent post .. and I will agree with HEM, most definitely.

@jaybate 1.0 The omnipresent and wise counterpoint. Very nice.

But as the little girl says on the AT&T commercial, "I want more." Don't you want more? Wanting more does not necessarily mean that you don't appreciate what you have.

And by saying another program has achieved national championship greatness that we have not achieved, does not mean one would trade places with that program. I would say that I don't think anyone has said that ... I for one have not.

But that said, can't we appreciate, be grateful .. and realistically want more? Particularly when "more" has been sitting there on a silver platter multiple times, right there within in our reach? Yet factors other than "luck" appear to be preventing our ultimate meal?

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=I+want+more+phone+commercial&FORM=VIRE1#view=detail&mid=0C396F3AB2FA98DE52E80C396F3AB2FA98DE52E8 ↗

My gosh, here we go again .. Cliff Alexander already being suggested as a first team all American. Ugh.

We can't go a day past the season's end without hype.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10746819/kansas-f-cliff-alexander-duke-c-jahlil-okafor-lead-2014-15-early-all-american-candidates-college-basketball ↗

@icthawkfan316 I agree. In the last 11 years, I'd move Duke down just above Louisville. During that time, I'd put KU between Duke and Florida, with Duke just below us, and Florida just above us. And UConn might not be a definitive #1. I might slip UNC up there. You?

Top programs, in order, last 20 years -- excluding KU:

1. UConn

2. Kentucky

3. Duke

4. North Carolina

5. Florida

6. Louisville

7. Michigan St.

8. Syracuse

9. Ohio St.

10. Arizona

@DoubleDD - I think your list of the 6 "blue bloods" is exactly correct.

@nuleafjhawk Now I think you're taking this personally ...

@icthawkfan316 - "But please stop acting as if we've 'fallen off'."

So, we must ascend then. One title every 25 years being the status quo.

@nuleafjhawk did you take the blue pill? "There's nothing magical about U-Conn or Kentucky", you say -- how about 6 of the last 18 national titles between them? If there is a word called "magical", what do you reserve it's use for -- aside from Disney World, of course?

And I appreciate @Hawk8086 's candor. He took the blue pill without hesitation. "We are still a top 5 program."

@drgnslayr - "I think Self may be the best conference coach of all times." Yes, he is. No doubt. And I like the UConn model as you suggest .. looking at why they succeeded to the ultimate prize so many times with diverse groups of players.

I still say we gave them the 2011 trophy -- Self wins the 2011 trophy and this discussion isn't happening, right? Or 2010. Or 2012. Or 2013. Or playing tonight. Lots of "ors".

@REHawk Soooo, did you take the red pill?

@KULA - I think you're the one that gave me the red pill.

@icthawkfan316 - Before anyone would think of a change, you'd have to have the replacement. That makes it difficult.

@Kip_McSmithers My comments last year about Kentucky were the same as they were after UNC won the title in 2009 and went to the NIT -- I'll take that trade. National title one season, NIT the next. Or UConn winning the title in 2011 and missing the tournament because of .. (really) .. academics. I'd take that. I think we were all fine with the title in 1988 and missing the tourney the next season .. I was still shining the ring.

If you didn't read all of @konkeyDong last paragraph above, please do so. Not so sure I agree with the Republican vs. Obama comparison, but we avoid political debates like the plague. But the challenge is an excellent one. Essentially put up or shut up. Give me a couple of days.

@icthawkfan316 would you consider a change at head coach? What if you learned coach Self would simply not adjust his philosophy, would refuse to be flexible -- as the evidence thus far suggests?

Thanks for the discussion .. I read all the posts.

@wissoxfan83 said - "HEM's question reflects the national perception of KU basketball."

Precisely.

My point is to challenge our thought process, as we live largely in our little KU cocoons. I know everyone here is coming from a different perspective. My perspective is just one. But nationally, as noted above, we are tied for 7th in national titles the last 20 seasons. Folks see us as a great program, but one that has trouble winning the big one. It is what it is. The Red Sox analogy is a good one.

I kind of think the Atlanta Braves is better. Yea, they won one, but with Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz, they should have won three or four.

So whether you're the red pill, blue pill, a little of both, or you think the entire discussion is stupid, is there a cure for what ails us in March?

I am very interested in what the group here thinks. I'm going to post my thoughts this week. Not in a "Self has failed" tone, but in a tone that is matter of fact. As basketball fans who live and die KU hoops, what do we thing marginally, and at the core, could help change our fate in March.

I do believe that there is an answer, or groups of answers. Think to yourself, if there was one thing you would change, what would it be?

Perhaps many will just think -- keep choppin' wood. It's a matter of time.

But I sense there will be more. @AsadZ touched on a few things above.

@konkeyDong asked, "do you want to see Self fired?"

That is the ultimate question, isn't it. It would be a bold move, wouldn't it? Crazy. Asinine. Beyond reason. Who fires Bill Self?

It just depends on the analysis.

Let me ask this -- assume that your analysis concluded that coach Self, through system, scheme, or otherwise was holding back KU from achieving titles -- would you fire Self?

One thing is for damn certain. KU basketball survived before coach Self, and it will survive after coach Self. Coach Self is not KU basketball. We're not some shy high school girl afraid to dump her boyfriend because no one will love her like he does. We are KU basketball.

Everything needs to be on the table.

@tundrahok Ok, what would be the thought process under the purple pill (maybe we call it the green pill). What is a rational middle ground?

I am hopeful that it will be devoid of excuses.

What can be gathered from Self's comments?

After Stanford: “I thought we’d play well. The guys seemed loose (before game),” Self said, noting it looked like there were nerves during the game. “We were hanging out with the guys last night. They were excited. We had some good ‘pump up’ things to show them. But it’s a little bit different pressure (in NCAAs). When things don’t go well early, this and that. We’re a young team and played young a majority of the game.” He’s (Wiggins) been so good all year long. He wasn’t aggressive today, not shooting the basketball (but) going after balls, things like that. That wasn’t the guy we’ve seen the majority of the year,” Self stated. “A lot will be put on him or me or whoever. I guess that’s the way it should be, but the kid had a great year. I hate the last game he labored like this because he obviously is better than what was shown today.”

After VCU: “When you put yourself in a position to cash in, you’ve got to take advantage of it,” said KU coach Bill Self, who fell to 1-5 in the Elite Eight. “Bottom line, as much as I’d like to think it, these opportunities don’t happen every year. You’ve got to make the most of them.”

After UNI: “I said in the locker room to the coaches, not the players, it probably is,” Self said. “And the reason it is, is a credit to the players because you work your butt off for a long time. You operate under duress, you operate under pressures the whole year that a lot of teams don’t operate under because of where we were ranked and expectations. And to put ourselves in a position that we were in, they don’t come around every year. You’ve got to make the most of those opportunities when you are granted them. That’s probably what stings the most. I don’t know if I’ll watch the tape. I know that there’s just one or two plays here or there that was the difference in the game, but this stings a lot.”

@ParisHawk All I offer is the choice.

@AsadZ Why do you think our guards never split double teams with a dribble? Do you think that if coach Self is telling them to do that, they simply ignore it? Players do what coaches ask of them. They may not succeed, but they try to execute it. Our players plainly have not been asked to split double teams with a dribble. They break the press and traps the way they have been told -- the scheme.

When you say that our players should watch tape, I am curious as to who should really watch the tape.

@truehawk93 Do you really believe that coach Cal has nothing to do with it?

Quite frankly, whatever the UK fans dish out, we should simply say "thank you, sir, may I have another."

All I offer is a choice.

We just witnessed two programs win Final Four games to send them to the national title contest. The battle Monday night will not just be for the national title. It will be for the mantle of the greatest college basketball program in the last 20 years.

Kentucky has on its shelf three national title trophies – 1996, 1998, and 2012.

UConn’s trophy case is adorned with three national title trophies in the same time period – 1999, 2004, and 2011.

One program will claim its fourth national championship in the last 20 years. That is greatness.

I have read comments here, and elsewhere. It is the classic “crimson and blue Kool-Aid” moment – the rationalizations, the explanations, the excuses. Specifically, the apologists.

What I ask of you is not easy. You have your life. You enjoy KU basketball. You love the history, and Allen Fieldhouse, and visiting broadcasters slobbering over the tradition. It’s quite satisfying to see highlight clips of former Jayhawks, and hearing Bob Davis scream “KU .. has won .. the national championship.”

But there’s something missing. You know what it is. You have felt it your entire life.

So I offer you a choice.

Take the red pill, and you see the world for how it really is. It’s not what you expect. The harsh reality is that KU is not a top five program. See, if you take the red pill, you will realize that the world is much different than you imagined. The world does not value conference titles. The real world does not care much about black and white photos of Wilt Chamberlain. Thirty win seasons are nice, but standing alone, they are mere conversation pieces. Take the red pill, and what you will see is the truth. The horrible truth. National championships define greatness. National championships are all that matter. You will see other programs achieving greatness, while our program languishes in excuses and rationalizations that serve only to satisfy our need for peace of mind. The red pill is reality. The red pill does not provide peace of mind. By taking the red pill, you will see a program that under the leadership of coach Self has underachieved in the NCAA tournament time and time again, losing to lower seeded foes on a regular basis. You will see a coach that remains inflexible, and refuses to adjust his strategies and schemes. You will see a coach who routinely fails to take the blame for his teams’ ultimate failures in the NCAA tournament. You will see a coach so enamored with his system, and arrogant in his approach, that he fails to recognize the need to change. Taking the red pill will make you angry. Angry at the results, angry at the messenger, angry at the world. You will see the horrible reality of underachievement. I didn’t say it would be easy. I just said it would be the truth.

Take the blue pill, and you will wake up Tuesday morning in your “10 there, done that” t-shirt and remember nothing. You will remain convinced that KU had a “great” season, as you do every season. You will believe that conference titles define greatness, or that they really mean something. You will believe that we “were are just so young”, and thus a national title was a fantasy anyway. You will believe that the tournament is mostly about luck. You will believe that other teams miss shots just like we do. You will believe that adjustments to scheme and strategy are too complicated to understand. You will hide behind the age old proclamation that “Self knows best.” You will believe that we have a great coach that has done everything in his power to win national titles. The failures will roll of the tongue – Bucknell, Bradley, UCLA, UNI, VCU, Michigan, Stanford. There is no way that Self was outcoached against lower seeded teams. It’s anything but that. But mostly, you will believe that national championships do not define greatness. And you will believe the excuses and explanations. If you take the blue pill, you will remain in a fantasy world. You will go about your life, to your job, on vacation – you will enjoy the ride. You will believe that KU has a place among the elite college basketball programs. You will believe that two national championships in 27 seasons is elite. And that three in 64 seasons is astounding. You will remain in a fantasy world. But you will be at peace. Rationalizations are a powerful tonic. Take the blue pill, and nothing changes.

All I offer is the truth.

@Crimsonorblue22 you kind of hit on the rationale of my point there, in part. With Traylor we have a very small front line. Further, we have the defensive liability of Ellis. We have none of our main three guys even listed over 6'8". Which means they're all, at best, 6'8" in shoes.

Second, there would be concern about scoring. Traylor is not a gifted scorer. His improvement, though, was terrific. But it would be pretty hard to improve at the same rate. If he did improve to the same degree, heck, start him. But not expecting that improvement. My concern with scoring also lies greatly with Ellis -- we saw him taken completely out of games either by a long/athletic defender, or by Self.

We would be smallish, with one being a subpar defender (Ellis) and one average (Traylor). Alexander is supposed to be a "plus" defender. And there isn't likely reliable scoring. That creates uncerainty. But I think @icthawkfan316 is right. There would have to be a strong component of either Lucas of Mickelson, if for nothing else because of height.

Really, I do have some faith in Lucas. If I was a betting man .. which I am from time to time .. I would bet that if we lost Embiid, didn't get Turner, didn't land some astounding transfer .. that in the last half of next season Lucas would be playing #3 post player minutes.

Also, @Crimsonorblue22, I had said that Ellis was much closer to TRob body wise, meaning as compared to Traylor. On a continuum, Ellis was much closer. But I don't think his body is TRob's, for sure. And you said Traylor reminds you of TRob -- here's my list 1) both black, 2) both tall, 3) both have tattoos (I couldn't leave that out), 4) both have a good motor .... now I'm struggling. Anything else? Maybe both althletic, but Embiid was athletic.

I agree on Traylor's speed.

Is there anyone who would feel comfortable with Traylor as our 3rd post player next season, meaning on a team that would compete to be playing for national title?