🏀 KuBuckets Archive

@icthawkfan316 - A perfect summary of what most are thinking, I imagine. Your quote from the EKU player was highly insightful, and analysis of what it meant hit the nail on the head. We see it, they see it, everyone sees it.

In postgame on the radio, Self said that he was disappointed that we aren't attacking pressure. But he knows why. We have Tharpe that is not capable, and we have Selden who is not reliable in that situation.

I do have to credit Self, as you mentioned. He went to CF. Tried Tharpe again. Benched Tharpe again. And tried Tharpe one more time. Then back to the bench.

This is perhaps the worst implosion of a KU player I can recall. Definitely sad to see.

One key, as @VailHawk mentioned as well, is the defense. CF plays defense. Tharpe just does not. He gave up easy blow byes. Gave up threes. Standard fair.

This game it was so plain to see how much better we were when he wasn't in the game.

What was the most comical and predictable with Tharpe was when EKU went to the 1-3-1, Tharpe wilted. First time they ran it he threw the standard cross court lob, got tipped out of bounds by an EKU defender. As I've said, the local high school point guard could do better.

Also, Self's got Mason on a short leash. The bad pass to Black and he was out.

@RockChalkinTexas - Nah, I didn't. Didn't see the point. Some days I do see the point. Most days I don't.

@wishawk - I perhaps phrased that wrong. Should have said "It had been rumored ..." as opposed to "Word was ..." I think it was all baloney. And that's kind of what I meant. There was the discussion that he wanted to play on the Canada team; there was discussion that he wanted to show up late and not take summer classes.

@drgnslayr pretty much summed up my feelings on the tattoo thing. Appreciate that explanation.

@bskeet -- my list wasn't in any particular order, but maybe listing the tattoo thing first was a subconscious "first test" for me. But maybe not. I have nothing but good things to say about Tarik Black, as well (except for the early foul stuff).

As an unabashed anti-OAD guy, I have to admit that I like Andrew Wiggins. It didn’t start out well. Word was he was trying to negotiate out of coming to KU during the summer. Then there was the deluge of preseason publicity. It was easy to assume that Wiggins was buying into the hype.

Since then, though, it’s become easy to separate the OAD from the player. Wiggins, actually, is a breath of fresh air. He’s absolutely my kind of player. Every time he steps on the court, he exudes “old school.” He should have let the ‘fro grow. Here’s a few quick hits on why I have been won over by Andrew Wiggins:

1. No Tattoos: I have to admit, any player that doesn’t succumb to the peer pressure of defacing his body with mindless tattoos scores a big plus in my book. As a mature adult, if you choose that route, great – enjoy a life of getting turned down in meaningful job interviews. But it takes some fortitude to resist the pressure like recent Jayhawk Kevin Young.

2. Getting’ Dirty: Twice this season, Wiggins dove on the floor. Most recently vs. OSU in the Big 12 tourney (and I know I’m slacking, but I forgot to note the other time). I questioned whether it was in his DNA. Maybe it wasn’t, but perhaps it’s just a hint of nurture over nature. In any case, a finesse guy got dirty. I like it.

3. Alpha Dog: Any questions? He has developed into what we hoped he would be. An aggressive, take it to the rack, kind of guy. A player unafraid to be “the man.” Perhaps, our Carmelo Anthony (and I love dropping that reference -- it works until it doesn't).

4. Improvement: Wiggins has not played like KU is a pit stop. Although he has made it clear that this is a one year deal, he hasn’t coasted. He has truly taken every opportunity to improve his game. That shows every time out on the floor. Imagine if Wiggins were forced to play four seasons of college ball? Imagine if his game improved just 25% to his sophomore season, and then just 10% each successive season. He seriously could go down as the greatest player in KU history. Try it this way – would you rather have Wiggins next season, or Paul Pierce (from his sophomore season)? That’s your answer.

5. Coachable: Why has Wiggins improved? Because he can be coached. That’s a choice he didn’t have to make. He is obviously willing to accept coaching. You can see how he has attempted to listen to coach Self and play the way coach Self wants him to. Early in the season, there were times we could mistaken Wiggins for Randy Moss – he’d take a few plays off here and there. We’d see him lumber up and down the court. I just don’t see that any more.

6. Class: Have you ever seen Wiggins pound his chest after a great play? Have you ever seen him scream in an opponent’s face? Have you ever seen him attempt to show up another player? Exactly. The guy plays the game the right way.

7. Humility: I’ve heard a lot of Wiggins’ comments and interviews. I have never gotten even a hint that Wiggins is full of himself. He conducts himself with humility and rarely makes any situation about himself. He praises teammates and coaches. Like nearly every 19 year old kid, he isn't the most at ease in front of the camera. But he makes it clear that there is a game beyond Andrew Wiggins. That's nice.

8. Plays To Win: This season has not been about Andrew Wiggins’ prepping for the NBA. After assessing Wiggins for 30+ games, it seems quite clear that the guy is playing to win every game. Our first hint came against Florida when he willed us back into the game. The icing on the cake was the monumental performance against West Virginia. Winning is the priority.

9. No Drama Queen: One concern coming in was how he’d mesh with teammates. Would there be drama? Would there be discord? The only drama was media created. By all accounts, he’s been a perfect teammate and has created zero drama. It appears that he has had no negative impact on chemistry. In fact, all I see is positive energy. I have never once felt that he has dragged this team down with negativity.

10. Defensive Effort: As impressive as Wiggins has been on the offensive end, his defensive effort has won me over. Watching an assured OAD dig deep on the defensive end was perhaps not expected, but it has certainly been a pleasant surprise. It’s the effort that is most impressive.

Watching Wiggins play this season has been a pleasure. It’s easy to enjoy great performances, but it’s even better when the guy brings so many other positives to the table. Wish we had him another season.

@KUSTEVE I would agree. It was amazing how Selden took his game to the next level, and how Mason took over at the point. I was glad to see Greene and Oubre co-exist at the 3, as well. I'm surprised they went undefeated, but an undefeated champ had to happen sometime.

The day I start worrying about playing New Mexico is the day I have to wonder if I'm really a K-State fan. I'm trying not to lose too much sleep ...

"We should be scoring out of those low post double-teams. Instead... we just try to survive them by safely getting the ball out of the post. We have to attack what people are throwing at us or they just keep doing it and limiting what we do."

@drgnslayr - Exactly. Couldn't have said it any better.

@drgnslayr - thanks for the kind comments. You comments on Greene are interesting, referring to regression. And Conner's shooting. I think it is hard for guys that are used to playing, to adapt to new roles, new pressure, new demands. And regarding execution, like you, I continue to wonder why I'm complaining mid-game, still, about our inability to handle the post double team and pressing.

And we do look predictable. Why? Because Self runs what he always runs. Does what he always does. It's his system, and players must adapt. His are more retuning than restringing as @jaybate mentioned.

@JayHawkFanToo - don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that ppg allowed is the know all, say all stat. But the disparity is so significant I think that overcomes all of the distinctions or supportive/contrary secondary stats. Sure, the offenses we may be playing against are good generally. But it's not like our defensive ppg is ranked 70th. It's 189th. And I kind of like the last 10 game stat -- which includes three games vs. two horrible offensive teams, TCU and TT. Our defensive ppg was two points per game higher in that stretch than our average. That's a negative trend.

I guess I don't understand what you mean by mitigating circumstances as running contrary to the conclusion. I grant you there are circumstances that have led to poor defense. A lot of them. I am more of the position that granted all of that, what do we do to be in the best position to win the title? You have explained perhaps "why" we are so bad -- what would you do then to adjust to this acknowledged deficiency?

@Hawk8086 On Tharpe you asked, "Why can't he stay in front of his man more? Is it effort? I don't think he's that slow, is he?"

Short legs .. ask @jaybate , he can explain. Prophetic.

@jaybate 1.0 Isn't it interesting how the lack of three point shooting has hamstrung this team as well?

I did a post earlier in the season about our deficient three point shooting and comparing it to NCAA tourney winners, noting how our three point rates by volume were too low.

Our three point shooting percentage is on the bottom end vs. NCAA tourney winners (34.5%), but our volume (only 5.57 per game) is lower than any team in the last ten seasons that won a national title.

Syracuse in 2002-03 only had 5.31 per game, which is lower than our is currently.

It just isn't a good mountain to be facing. But hey, if Wiggins is our Carmelo, maybe we overcome the low volume of threes?

And guess what? Syracuse was ranked 152 in ppg defense in 2002-03?

And no regular on that team shot over 40% from three range.

I'm beginning to like the Syracuse 2002-03 comparison more and more.

@JayHawkFanToo

I would first say that I used defensive ranking, as opposed to comparing points allowed over the years, because each year is different. So our ranking is relative -- everyone is dealing with the same officiating, generally.

Second, stating that teams with lock down defenders -- hard nosed man to man -- would have fouled out, is a good point. You say that "tough" man to man teams get penalize more with the new officiating approach. I think that supports the fact that with a bad defensive team (even more), we can't depend on our defense.

Third, look at points allowed this season among the top 15 teams; SOS is in parenthesis ( ):

1. Florida 57.9 (23)
2. WSU 59.6 (104)
3. Villanova 66.6 (42)
4. Arizona 58.1 (4)
5. Louisville 60.9 (89)
6. Virginia 55.1 (32)
7. Duke 66.9 (9)
8. SDSU 56.6 (99)
9. Michigan 65.2 (8)
10. KU 70.5 (1)
11. Syracuse 59.5 (68)
12. Wisconsin 64.6 (2)
13. Cincinnati 58.3 (79)
14. Creighton 67.4 (22)
15. North Carolina 69.1 (14)

Your point about stronger opposition leading to giving up more points is an excellent one. But look at Arizona -- 4th in ppg defense ( nearly 12 points less than KU per game), and 4th in strength of schedule. Or Michigan, a full 5 ppg less, but 8th in SOS. Florida is no slouch with a 23 SOS, but only gives up 57.9 ppg. That's a huge difference. Roy's UNC has a 14 SOS, and still, with his less than defense focused philosophy, gives up less ppg than our squad.

Again, I think that point is a good one. But I would humbly suggest that when you compare apples to apples (best we can), it still points to a KU team that has a very remote shot at a national title doing what they are doing now. Thus my suggestion.

Next, you point to defensive shooting percentages. That, to me, is a nice supportive stat. But games come down to points. In our last 10 games, even with two games against Texas Tech and one against TCU, our ppg defense is more than 2 points higher than our season average. This is a concerning trend. And it squares with the eye test, doesn't it? Our defense looks bad.

Finally, comparing to conference teams, I would suggest, is irrelevant. We won the conference title. We're playing for the national title. I just don't see how comparing our conference rankings adds up right now. Your point though might be that there can be a very small difference between rankings and the actual points allowed. But if you compare nationally, that doesn't seem to be the case. To move from 178 to top 50, we'd have to give up a full 6 points less per game. That's a huge difference.

How do we win 6 games? What is the best opportunity to do that? That's my only real point.

I appreciate your analysis in response.

@nuleafjhawk - Yes, some sleep might help a bit.

I think you are right on point here. This was not a good season for such a schedule. Really, I don't think any season is a good season for such a schedule. It is hard to schedule and know for sure how good some teams may end up being.

I'm not a fan of hard scheduling like we did this season. I recalled that our schedule when we won the national title wasn't that crazy, so I decided to look at the last 10 seasons of national champs.

1. Louisville #6
2. Kentucky #8
3. UConn #4
4. Duke #1
5. UNC #3
6. Kansas #58
7. Florida #66
8. Florida #21
9. UNC #5
10. UConn #47

In the last 5 seasons, clearly, a top 10 schedule seems to fit the national title norm. In the 5 seasons before, not so much. KU's in 2008 wasn't that great.

In hindsight, perhaps the Florida game and the Colorado game would have been nice games to trade out for maybe a California and LaSalle at home. SOS is also obviously guided by the strength of the conference in that particular season, which is totally out of Self's control.

But I'm with you. I'd schedule some tough games, but I wouldn't go 30+ days away from Allen, and I'd lighten it up a bit.

@DinarHawk respectfully, I'm not sure if we're watching the same games. This is a horrible defensive team. Not just horrible -- horrific. You suggest that they are capable of playing well on defense and you cite the OSU game Thursday.

Have they played good defensive games for 6 games in a row? 5? 4? or even 2 in a row? More importantly have they demonstrated solid defense for any stretch against tournament quality teams? It's like saying that Tharpe has been terrific at the point guard spot because he scored 22 against Baylor on Feb. 4 or 19 points against OU on Feb. 24. We can select certain bits and pieces to support any case probably -- but the weight of the evidence is strongly to the contrary.

I offer to you Exhibit A -- a 189 rank in points allowed. We have to outscore opponents to win. That's a pretty basic requirement. And we're giving up a lot of points.

My point is that if you want to rely on this defense to win a national championship -- 6 games in a row, you will be sadly disappointed.

Who seriously believes that this team, playing this way, can do that? Since March 1, we lost at OSU, lost at WVU, barely beat OSU (in overtime), and lost to ISU. Right, we beat non-tourney team Texas Tech at home.

I understand that you may not want to talk about winning a championship with offense, but if we don't focus our efforts on more scoring, there will be no championship to focus on.

More evidence, in the past 10 years, here are the points per game ranks of national champions:

-Louisville: #15

-Kentucky: #23

-UConn: #90

-Duke: #22

-UNC: #272

-KU: #21

-Florida: #38

-Florida: #49

-UNC: #203

-UConn: #51

See what stands out? The only team to win a national championship in the last 10 years with a defensive PPG ranking worse than 100 was UNC -- twice.

It would thus make sense with our #189 rank to play like UNC did.

@drgnslayr One interesting Tharpe stat vs. Mason I noticed.

Over that last 10 games, Tharpe is shooting 23.5 % from 3 range (8-34), while Mason is at 46.6% (7-15).

I don't see how Mason doesn't start next season over Tharpe.

Also, Mason has started to make some very nice passes on penetration recently.

@dylans love your avatar. Mike Tyson's punch out was a classic.

How do we best attack the NCAA tournament? What is our best chance to win 6 games?

1. Coach Self relies upon strong man to man defense as his philosophical center point. This season, the team’s defensive inadequacies threaten that philosophy.

2. This team is now ranked 189th in points per game allowed. That has gone up since we lost Embiid, but even with Embiid, our points per game allowed ranking was significantly more than normal -- 51, 35, 69, 62, 106, and 21 in past years, with the #21 being the title season.

3. Coach Self made the decision to continue to try to make this team a good man to man team, even when all signs early on pointed to personnel issues impeding that progress.

4. As a few pointed out after Atlantis -- this team would have been better off shifting to zone as its base defense, given personnel attributes and limitations. That was my position.

5. Self commented on Hawk talk that he considered that, but felt focusing on getting better at man to man was the best choice.

6. We now have a pretty horrific defensive team by comparison, magnified by the loss of Embiid. This team is not going to magically become good defensively. Tharpe and Ellis are too big of liabilities, and Traylor just can’t guard skilled post men. That’s ½ of the six players that usually play big minutes.

7. The comments about a "hot shooting team" in ISU are a bogus diversion. There are hot shooting teams in the NCAA tourney. We have lost 9 games now. We got beat vs. WVU. ISU just beat us. At some point, we have to stop making tailored excuses for each loss. This is a macro issue. We can’t guard.

8. With this team now, there is probably no way that we can competently shift to zone defense. It's too late. Late November, sure. Now, only as a change up.

9. As I mentioned before the tournament, we have to find a different way to win, and focus on a potent offensive lineup; caring less about how we match up defensively. It’s not that you don’t care at all about defense. Rather, defensive issues are not the focus.

10. We need only look to UNC and our beloved coach Roy for guidance. He has won with poor defensive teams. In Roy's 2005 title season, UNC ranked 203rd at 70.3 ppg. In his 2009 title season, UNC ranked 272nd in ppg, 72.0. He won be focusing on the type of approach I'm suggesting. We are quite familiar with coach Roy windmilling his arm to get his teams to move down the court quickly.

11. There is a specific method to playing this way -- play urgently, push the ball, shoot early in the shot clock, don't worry as much about turnovers, increase possessions (which make each turnover mean less), take some risks on defense, use pressing and pressure regularly, constantly attack, and structure your personnel for scoring. On a made basket, have the closest guy to the ball immediately inbound the ball and then go.

12. A staple of Self's system is working to get a good shot. You see three point shooters, except really for Wiggins, turn down three point looks early in the shot clock (or face a quick benching). If the shot clock gets below 10 and you haven't shot, the approach I'm suggesting might send someone to the bench.

13. As part of this approach, we should focus highly on Wiggins with the ball in his hands. If he scores 50, so be it. We don't need to share the ball. Set up situations to isolate both Wiggins and Ellis. Self really doesn't do this, but desperate times call for desperate measures.

14. Another part of this approach would be to implement Mason's attacking style more often, and when Greene is in, give him the green light to just shoot the three. Permit Selden and Tharpe to gun away, away as well. But when you do this, guys down low are not necessarily only looking for the ball. They are looking to gain position to rebound. It's a subtle but important item.

15. Playing small is a of course an option, but not a necessity. It's match up by match up in how we can simply outscore the opponent. Part of that is actively spreading out the defense and posting up our non-post players as match ups dictate.

16. Most of this runs directly counter to coach Self's guiding philosophies. But we are likely unable to switch to an effective zone defense at this point.

17. Do we want to win, or do we want to follow a specific philosophy? Most of the time, coach Self's philosophy equals winning. But this season, our defense isn't up to par. To win the NCAA tournament, the status quo isn't going to do it.

18. Many folks want to give coach Self a complete pass and blame the players. For example, a lot of disdain for Tharpe’s and Ellis’ defense. But as a coach, you have to adjust to what you have. They aren’t changing now. Do you continue to beat your head against the wall, or do you put your team in the best position to win in spite of their deficiencies.

19. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and coaches many times are resistant to change. They got where they are by doing it their way. They win their way. They are arrogant. But it is that arrogance that many times limits their ability to recognize when they do need to adapt and change. It is a common flaw in leadership in all walks of life.

20. The question is then, what are the chances that this team will win the national championship doing things the same way we have been doing them this season? If your answer is “remote” then we have to change. There is no doubt. Change is risky. But risk is how greatness is achieved. My humble opinion is that the above method is our best opportunity. And if Embiid returns, so do options for coach Self.

Rock Chalk!

@jaybate - Your analysis of the loss is excellent.

"KU could either start doubling Niang, as it had OSU's big so well the day before. Or KU could go zone, knowing OSU had lost its trey shooting legs, and use the zone to cut Niang off entirely from the basket down low. Either ploy would have worked."

But Self chose to do neither.

Self has chosen this entire season to rely upon his dogmatic approach. He only seems to know or appreciate one way. He doesn't adjust to fit his players and talent. His players have to adjust to fit him. He runs his system, period.

He now has a team that 189th in the nation in points allowed. He still has two monumental holes defensively -- Tharpe and Ellis. He still has a primary sub that is impotent guarding anyone of skill or size in the post -- Traylor. Not much has changed.

Right, not much has changed. We're going to play man to man defense regardless of whether we're successful. That's what we do.

It doesn't matter that, physically, this team playing zone made more sense.

Prior to the tournament, I noted that with our defensive deficiencies, that we could not rely upon our defense -- we'd have to tactically approach the game to outscore the opponent. Many ways to do that. Increase possessions by shooting quicker, pressure defense,etc. Heck, just having the guy closest to the ball throw it in after a made basket can help.

We clearly did not do that last night -- meaning a tactical approach to scoring more. We did the same thing we always do.

And against the dreaded hot shooting team, coach Self's teams will do what they always do. But this time, he has absolutely no rational basis to bank on his defense.

@JayHawkFanToo Whenever I see Wesley's name I have ask anyone who bring him up "Are you serious?"

Not quite in a John McEnroe tone, but close.

@konkeyDong Just go this thread this morning. Great analysis.

You are correct. The 1-3-1 is tricky with our personnel precisely because of Ellis. Traylor would really be the perfect baseline big with our personnel. With our entirely healthy crew, Ellis on the baseline is not as difficult because Embiid is in the middle.

Tharpe up top, Wiggins/Selden on wings, Black in the middle, and Ellis on the baseline. You could flop Black and Ellis I suppose. But that would be conventional.

But I like the idea of putting Wiggins on the baseline and Ellis on a wing. Ellis is the weak link in any defense no matter how we set it up. Wiggins is long and active, and would always get help from the doubling post man in the middle.

With our personnel, I may favor @drgnslayr 's idea of the 1-2-2 but that defense has the most vulnerability in the middle from a top set, on penetration, and on quick reversal (my opinion).

Here's an example on ball reversal -- ball on left wing, quick rotation to the top of key, then to right wing, and post flasher from left block to the middle. With the 1-2-2, there isn't a guy that is "normally" in that spot. With a 1-3-1, there is. It just seems easier to get inside a 1-2-2 than other zone defenses in my opinion.

In every zone defense, there is exposure though. The 1-3-1 is of course exposed on the baseline more when the ball is up top as @drgnslayr pointed out. Once the ball goes to a wing, the 1-3-1 flattens and looks a lot like a 2-3, thus why that is a preferred method of attacking the 1-3-1 if you don't have time to prepare. Most teams prep against 2-3 looks. So if you move the ball to the wing initially, you start your set that way as you flatten the 1-3-1 and get the same look as you prepped against. The key there is trapping to try to take that option away.

Against a 1-3-1, the baseline risk is more exposed because the second line of three defenders tend to creep up. That's where practice come in.

On zones, if it's not practiced well it will be porous. And I doubt we practice it very much at all.

One thing is for certain, we cannot rely on our defense.

I went and looked at some numbers. We are ranked for 2013-14 at 152nd in points allowed with 69.7 per game. Remember, that's with Embiid for all but 3 games.

Compare to the following:

-2012/13: 61.9 ppg, ranked 51st.

-2011/12: 61.6 ppg, ranked 35th.

-2010/11: 64.7 ppg, ranked 69th.

-2009/10: 64.2 ppg, ranked 62nd.

-2008/09: 65.4 ppg, ranked 106th (another team with 5 new starters).

-2007/08: 61.5 ppg, ranked 21st.

There are more points scored this season, but relatively speaking, we are way, way off our normal defensive ranking on ppg.

We cannot hang our hat on defense.We haven't been able to the entire season.

Focusing on offense, structuring our lineup for scoring, pressing some, are what is needed.. Also, a staple of Roy ball, not worrying about the shot clock or turnovers as much. Get your shot, increase possessions. Sure, we need to play good defense. But I'm pretty confident that we won't win if we do that.

If we have Tharpe and Ellis in our lineup, how good can our defense really be? It will be exactly what it is now.

Self's normal formula is probably the best path in a normal season. But this is not a normal defensive team for coach Self.

The Roy formula may be best for this team ... in his 2005 title season, UNC ranked 203rd at 70.3 ppg. In his 2009 title season, UNC ranked 272 in ppg, 72. 0.

That is the formula for this team. Increase possessions, shoot the ball, if you turn it over, just keep playing fast, you'll get the ball back. Structure your lineup to score, first and foremost. This is the formula.

Note: I posted this on another thread. I just think that this is the answer, I had to post it again.

One thing is for certain, we cannot rely on our defense.

I went and looked at some numbers. We are ranked for 2013-14 at 152nd in points allowed with 69.7 per game. Remember, that's with Embiid for all but 3 games.

Compare to the following:

-2012/13: 61.9 ppg, ranked 51st.

-2011/12: 61.6 ppg, ranked 35th.

-2010/11: 64.7 ppg, ranked 69th.

-2009/10: 64.2 ppg, ranked 62nd.

-2008/09: 65.4 ppg, ranked 106th (another team with 5 new starters).

-2007/08: 61.5 ppg, ranked 21st.

There are more points scored this season, but relatively speaking, we are way, way off our normal defensive ranking on ppg.

We cannot hang our hat on defense.We haven't been able to the entire season.

Focusing on offense, structuring our lineup for scoring, pressing some, are what is needed.. Also, a staple of Roy ball, not worrying about the shot clock or turnovers as much. Get your shot, increase possessions. Sure, we need to play good defense. But I'm pretty confident that we won't win if we do that.

If we have Tharpe and Ellis in our lineup, how good can our defense really be? It will be exactly what it is now.

Self's normal formula is probably the best path in a normal season. But this is not a normal defensive team for coach Self.

The Roy formula may be best for this team ... in his 2005 title season, UNC ranked 203rd at 70.3 ppg. In his 2009 title season, UNC ranked 272 in ppg, 72. 0.

That is the formula for this team. Increase possessions, shoot the ball, if you turn it over, just keep playing fast, you'll get the ball back. Structure your lineup to score, first and foremost. This is the formula.

@DinarHawk Really? How close were we to a national title in 2011? Literally, VCU, then Butler, then UConn. Remember the 18 out of 25 think ... #1 seeds win it all.

Now this season, the only possible #1 seed that is a truly top team is Florida.

@konkeyDong It is a touch out of character, I know .. but at this time of the season, we have think positively, right?

I'm an optimistic skeptic.

I absolutely love the idea of playing small. And of course, pressing and trapping more. Small ball, kind of. Self just seems too stubborn to try it. We've suggested for years that he press more, but he's conservative that way. He doesn't want to risk the easy bucket.

But the idea here is excellent. We have to out score opponents. We have to create mismatches. This is how to do it.

I go back to my Lucas thought -- if Self determines, rationally, we ain't winning it all going conventional, then we have to try something out of the box.

Last season, vs. Belmont, White played the 4 spot and scored 15 or something like that. Self described him as a pick and pop 4.

There may be some teams and matchups where this doesn't make

I like @Wishawk 's starting line up. Let's run.

Faith.

We hear the word every day. What does it mean?

Two definitions to choose from:

1) Confidence or trust in a person or thing.

Or

2) A belief that is not based in proof.

You are left with a choice. Choose faith, and you see a bright light at the end of the tunnel – your March life has a purpose. Choose logic, and you stare into the dark chasm of March damnation.

Ah, but is the choice so stark? I see the two definitions of faith, actually, as being a bit contradictory.

If we have confidence or trust in a person or thing, that confidence or trust can be a belief that is actually based in proof, can’t it? Can you not have confidence or trust based upon history and achievement – based on logic?

Faith, therefore, does not necessarily have to lack proof. Right now, there is only one logical recipient of our faith – it is a coach that knows how to win. A coach that has shown the uncanny ability to get teams and players to play to at a high level, regardless of conditions or circumstances. We saw a starting five with no OADs, an unranked transfer, and two walk-ons come to within a few points of a national championship in 2012. One of the most spectacular coaching performances in decades. Self deserves our faith.

So, with the news of the loss of Joel Embiid, the one player in the nation that offers something different than any other player – our X factor -- we have every reason to mope. We can feel sorry for ourselves. We can rationally point to all of the reasons why we won’t win the national title. We can correctly focus on all of the flaws. And that analysis will be completely logical.

There is every reason to say that we “can’t”; and very few reasons to say that we “can.” The weight of the evidence for “can’t” is overwhelming right now.

But then, for some unexplained reason, you might experience an unrestrained flow of positivity. Your mind might create scenarios of success. Not “make believe, no way that can happen” scenarios; but real scenarios where KU wins the national championship. Faith has now overwhelmed “can’t.” It seems perfectly logical. Why? Because we have a coach that is a proven winner. It is the crimson and blue thread that connects faith and logic.

The better path, of course, is to have faith. Faith offers hope. Faith offers comfort. Faith offers direction. Faith is the true precursor to spectacular achievement. Without faith, we are empty. And tourney time is certainly not the time to be empty.

We are at a point in the season when faith offers us so much more than anything else can. It is March, my friends, so please don’t tell me that this team can’t win 6 in a row to conclude the season. It cannot be comprehended, because KU can win it all. KU will win it all. Our destiny awaits. History is defined by incredible achievements that defy logic. Each such achievement, of course, had something in common – faith. All we need is a little faith.

Rock Chalk!

I'm a little late to this thread .. but I actually think that using Wiggins to initiate the offense for a number of possessions makes sense. I'd like using the flat 4 look with Wiggins at the top a few times, depending on match-ups. Perhaps with a few specific plays where he would pass off the initial drive, and a couple others where he would either drive or shoot. Nice arrow to have in the quiver.

This is interesting. When I read that Self said that it was more significant than a strain, I started thinking stress fracture or herniation. Then I read @jaybate mentioning that you might not do such aggressive stretching if that were the case.

I personally keep coming back to the knee injury as the root cause here. As @drgnslayr noted in his situation, a knee problem led to his back issues. In athletic movements, it can be a simple as trying not to land on the hurt leg, or even slightly protecting it in repetitive movements.

That said, I wonder about Embiid's flexibility. Tight hamstrings are a major contributor to back issues and can increase back problems once a leg injury occurs.

But I'm sure we'll know soon.

I think it is as simple as the fact that Self is one of those ardent believers in man defense. He despises zone. It's the school of thought that zone is somehow a lower life form.

I just posted this on another thread, but saw this thread and thought it was appropriate.

Early on, November, I was in complete agreement with Jesse Newell that we should have switched to zone. Right then and there.

But what makes that hard is that Self is a man coach. My guess is, as good of a coach as he is, he's probably not that proficient in teaching zone. To have a good zone team, you have to be a good zone coach. I've always felt that this is why Baylor struggles. They have not identity. Drew tries to be both. Jack of all trades, master of none kind of thing.

This season, though, with Tharpe and Ellis as defensive black holes, and the length of Embiid and Wiggins, a sweet little 1-3-1 would have done the trick with some half court trap looks.

I love zone defense because it can allow you to dictate pace, and not be dictated to. You can increase the urgency with different levels of pressure and alternating trapping points. The first Texas Tech game would have never played out that way. And of course, some 2-2-1 3/4 court pressing is the cherry on the top. This is not high risk defense. It's a well planned strategy to control tempo and take away the other team's strengths, while playing to your own.

This was the perfect recipe for this team. But we've have banged our head against the wall all season. We've seen glimmers. But it's tourney time and we just gave up 50 in one half of basketball to a team that doesn't have Dave Sieger, Mookie Blaylock, or Stacey King.

And @MoonwalkMafia - "We will run into a hot-shooting team in the tournament. Mark it down. It's going to happen." Believe me, I have marked it down. Also, your reference to pressing is an excellent one. I am not a proponent of pressing all the time, nor even 50% of the time. But to throw it out there say 1 out of 4 possessions. Change the dynamic, take teams out of their comfort zone. Make them work. And work to expose their weaknesses. Who would have known that Tharpe and Selden would have so much trouble vs. a zone press? We wouldn't have known unless another team tried.

While I fear the hot shooting team as well, and Self's slow trigger in adjusting, I also fear a team attacking us with pressure like Villanova and Florida did. Tharpe can't handle it, and Selden has been very unreliable in those situations as well (I recall the OSU game at Allen where he was just lost). Mix in some bad ass trapping of our bigs near the block like SDSU did, and that's the blue print.

I feel like stupidmichael -- I am worried.

@JRyman Early on, November, I was in complete agreement with Jesse Newell that we should have switched to zone. Right then and there.

But what makes that hard is what you allude to .. Self is a man coach. My guess is, as good of a coach as he is, he's probably not that proficient in teaching zone. To have a good zone team, you have to be a good zone coach. I've always felt that this is why Baylor struggles. They have not identity. Drew tries to be both.

This season, though, with Tharpe and Ellis as defensive black holes, and the length of Embiid and Wiggins, a sweet little 1-3-1 would have done the trick with some half court trap looks.

I love zone defense because it can allow you to dictate pace, and not be dictated to. You can increase the urgency with different levels of pressure and alternating trapping points. The first Texas Tech game would have never played out that way. And of course, some 2-2-1 3/4 court pressing is the cherry on the top. This is not high risk defense. It's a well planned strategy to control tempo and take away the other team's strengths, while playing to your own.

This was the perfect recipe for this team. But we've have banged our head against the wall all season. We've seen glimmers. But it's tourney time and we just gave up 50 in one half of basketball to a team that doesn't have Dave Sieger, Mookie Blaylock, or Stacey King.

@jaybate - I will say this, your sense of timing is not lacking in guts.

Wiggins literally willed our team back into the game today, put us on his back, and nearly got us the win. But for a few missed free throws and a Mason turnover late, we might have done it. Today was a case where he simply said "it's my game." Alpha dog stuff. Carmelo Anthony stuff. Durant-esque.

I have been all over this Wiggins assist thing, as you know. It is astonishing to me how many points he leaves on the floor because he refuses to pass. An extreme case of tunnel vision.

But you touch on an incredible point -- does he make anyone on the team better?

And I think that leads to another point -- when he does have this epiphany, he will be incredible.

Wiggins should drop 5 assists per game without a problem. And it would make him better because as those assists increase, his path to the hoop will become less congested. But this is why players need more time in college. To adjust their games and get better. He won't get it. As the color guy said today, teams game plan to attack Wiggins' second bounce because he doesn't pass.

He is just a freshman.

@drgnslayr On Carmelo, though, it would heal a bit of the pain if we had our own, wouldn't it?

@Hawk8086 You're right; there is no "good" option right now. Self just has to go game by game, and yank Tharpe when needed.

@JayHawkFanToo - I have to ask you regarding Tharpe .. not "feeling it"? Do you think this type of performance by Tharpe warrants anything other than Self looking to go in another direction?

My view is that this has to do with effort, and showing up ready to play, and "want to" as coach Roy used to say. He is not a freshman. He is a few games away from being a senior. Three seasons listening to coach Self preach what Tharpe appears to be the complete antithesis of.

Tharpe may come out and play well, score 16 like he did vs Texas Tech, but his valleys are death. We just needed the guy to come out and be the rock for this team. To be the leader as we were told that he is. Our junior point guard comes out again and lays an egg, and I firmly believe that his lackluster play drove the entire bus into the lake to start this game. If he had come out, shown some moxie, our first half debacle just doesn't happen. He's the bus driver, but he's not "feeling it"? On defense, he doesn't even commit a foul. Now, his usual fouls are the timid type, reaching out with both hands .. he's usually good for two of those a game. But today, not even a whimper. Try to front with his chest? Nah.

I don't know what it is, but he's fallen off a cliff. He plays a mere 16 minutes because Self determined that we aren't going to win with him. That is a sad, sad statement on March 8. He just cannot be counted on.

I will say this -- if he can't be counted on, his continued presence is a detriment, because we expend minutes and practice time on a guy that may not be there when it gets a little rough. Again, he may drop 20 next time. That is completely irrelevant.

Quick Post Game Thoughts:

1. Naadir Tharpe: We are now left to wonder how he will really factor into next season's plans. Self flat out benched him for his horrific defense. I thrashed Tharpe last weekend. So I won't now. But please, check the play at the 15:25 mark of the second half. Staten went around him with little or no effort, leading to a foul at the rim by Black. I guarantee you that YOU could not guard that play any worse.

2. Andrew Wiggins: Ho .. ly .. crap. I take back every bad thing I've ever said about presumed OADs. Was there some discussion of "alpha dog?" Wow.

3. Character: As horrible as it is to be down 27, it is just as impressive that we fought all the way back to 5. I thought when we cut it to 10, and they bumped it back to 17, it was over. But we kept coming.

4. Conner Frankamp: His defensive play is significantly better than Tharpe. Not even close. He fights hard, contests shots, and sticks with his man. I was very impressed.

5. Tarik Black: Not surprising. It's been this way all season. Up, down, all around. Can't rely upon any level of play, good or bad.

6. No. 1 Seed: I am so very hopeful that any talk of a #1 seed is done. To be honest, we should be fighting to stay on the #2 line. But that's ok. A #2 or #3, let's run with it. I just don't want to hear #1 seed and "KU" again until next season.

7. Carmelo Anthony: Did we see Carmelo today?

@icthawkfan316 Problem is, we have to cover two guys on defense pretty regularly -- Ellis and Tharpe. I believe that the only way we win the tournament is 1) a healthy Embiid protecting the rim, 2) Tharpe or Ellis not killing us on defense -- at least one being adequate per game, 3) Tharpe not having brain cramp games like the OSU game, and 4) our offense getting hot, maybe out shooting teams from 3 range a few times.

One guy to keep an eye in my book offensively is Ellis. His game is expanding its range and he could really exploit the right matchup.

I think we can hope for the "Self-ball" that @drgnslayr suggests, but I don't think that it is probable. Winning the tourney may be a bit of a different formula. This isn't going to be a lock down defensive team. And I wonder, are we ready for the UNIs and VCUs of the world?

@Crimsonorblue22 - The distinction noted by @JayHawkFanToo is important. It was "either Embiid or Wiggins", meaning either one of them, and not meaning "both" -- which would have been "and." If we were missing just one of them, I still think we would have won the Big 12.

@AsadZ - Do you think TT was clutch before the second half of his senior season? I don't. And he was selfish. I go back to Selby's season. TT started off the season like gangbusters, had a 10 assist game; was really playing like a point guard. Then, when Selby got on the court, he immediately went in the tank. I personally believe that Selby was threatening to TT and TT thought he had to be "the man." Taylor had the infamous "I finally got mine" quote after scoring 20 or something like that in a December game at the Sprint center. The second half of his senior season made up for the rest, though, as his play was crucial in our title game run. That was an amazing March.

@AsadZ Hmmm .. I kind of think Tyshawn was just as poor finishing at the rim as Mason, even at his height (which was 6'4" in shoes, 6'2.75 without, fyi). Taylor was a disaster, actually, on many, many occasions. His career was pretty much a disaster in my opinion except for the second half of his senior season.

@JayHawkFanToo: I'd go with Kean Anderson. TCU would be much worse without him ... just kidding. I'd still go with Staten. WVU's drop off, I think, would be much greater without him than if any team, lost any other player. We would have still won the Big 12 in my opinion without either Embiid or Wiggins.

We had our second basketball power right there for the taking ... Louisville.

@jaybate 1.0 We had this discussion back a ways regarding Taylor. I think you are exactly right. Self is sanctioning it. Though I was hard pressed to believe that a few years ago. The Mason "evidence" is persuasive.

@crimsonorblue22 - I don't. My guess is that he has a 50% success rate -- either scoring or getting fouled. But that is a pure guess. I'd say that his actually putting the ball in the hoop on a drive is less than 25%. Again, an estimate/guess.

@wissoxfan83 - I would agree with you on Mason. He is doing the exact same thing, but with much lower success rates (scoring/fouled) than Wiggins. But more importantly, he's a point guard and should be looking to dish and create instead of shooting. I have a feeling that will transform a bit next season. But I do wonder what Self's thoughts on that are. I mean, he tolerated it from TT and seemed to encourage it.

Here's a great example of what I see with Wiggins much of the time. Granted, he drives and finishes some, and gets fouled many times. But these are points left on the table. It is a significant weakness in his game. And by the way, Wiggins didn't pass on this play. He lost the ball.

!Wiggins.14.jpg ↗

Of all the players this season we played, it seemed like Juwan Staten of WVU was the most dominating. He's the league player of the year in my book.

I looked at his stats -- 18.2 points per game, 5.9 rebounds per game, and 5.8 assists per game, and 1.2 steals per game. I'd say it would be a close call between he and Deadre Kane, 16.7, 6.7, 5.8, 1.3.

Compare to Wiggins: 16.0, 5.8, 1.6, 1.0. It is pretty glaring that Wiggins assists are so low. He literally never passes when he drives despite players being wide open. It happens every game when teams collapse on him when he drives. But the guy is just a freshman, a few months into a college career. This is an area that I think he would vastly improve on if he stayed in college.

Those are season stats, not Big 12. But in the Big 12 play, Staten is even better 19.7, 5.6, 5.5, 1.1; Kane 17.9, 6.2, 5.65, 1.5. Wiggins is 16.2, 6.1, 1.6, and 1.0.

In my view, it should be the top player on the top team, nor the player most valuable to his team. It should simply be the most outstanding player. Wiggins was clearly not the top player in the conference. Staten an Kane have good assist totals, way out distancing Wiggins, but nearly the same boards per game as guards; and more ppg.

In that regard, I'd go Staten #1 and Kane #2.

@JRyman I completely disagree. Self can easily choose to take no presumed OADs. No complaints from me if he does. I'd rather take a #15-#60 player over an OAD. That approach will lead to better teams. You may lose many of those guys for their senior seasons .. see TRob, Marcus, Markieff, Chalmers, etc. But 2 and 3 year guys would be the norm, with some 4 year guys.

I've mentioned it before, but I think you can take a consistent approach -- if you have non-freshmen that are top 60 guys, don't recruit an OAD to start over them. If you have a clear hole, go the OAD route if you must.

At our 3 spot, we had White (sophomore) and Greene (freshman). But we added Wiggins. Sticking to a consistent approach, I would have passed on Wiggins.

Embiid was not a presumed OAD, but was filling a clear hole anyway. Same with Selden.

But because we didn't get a three year top 50 guy last season instead of Embiid, we are chasing our tail with Cliff Alexander. And will be chasing our tail the year after that because we didn't bring in another top 60 post guy to learn and get better this season.

I firmly believe this makes a better program. OADs mortgage the future because we aren't able to as effectively build for the future. We're continually hoping that the freshmen get it quick, which is completely unnatural.

Assuming Wiggins, Embiid, and Selden are going pro, and we don't win the national title, was it worth it?

Or would we be much better in 2014-15 if our rotation this season was Tharpe, Mason, Green, White, Frankamp; and Ellis, Karviar Shepherd (or someone similar), Lucas, and Traylor?

Don't underestimate that guys would step up and play well. Don't underestimate chemistry. Don't underestimate Self as a coach. Don't be afraid to have a season that is not a normal Kansas season, to set up years of guaranteed title contention.

The team I described above would not need Alexander or Oubre. Self could have focused on guys in the #20 - #60ish range; guys that when you bring them in, they'll be here for 3 years.

I remain in the minority.

The entire OAD merry go round is unnecessary. It is not a prerequisite to a championship team.

The best talent creates the best team -- most of the time. But that gets confused with reality of the OAD drama -- most of the allegedly high talented players have higher ceilings. Higher ceilings need time to develop. So the higher talent does not necessarily create the best team. It's a different game, different speed, different demands, different environments. And it takes time.

In our case, to be fair to coach Self, I don't think Selden and Embiid were presumed OADs at the time they signed. So circumstances have created this merry go round a bit.

But as @jaybate said, here we are, and it is "madness." And the only way I will "like it" is if we win the national title.

This is a cool question .. however, it's a bit scary. Comparing a team we want to win the national title to a team that was not really worthy of that discussion. I agree with @jaybate 's player by player comparisons. This team is deeper. And it has more upside per @Hawk8086. I'd take this team. But ask me again in a few weeks.

@jaybate 1.0 We had a pretty good "bad outside shot PG" of our own .. Jacque Vaughn. Just wish he would have taken that outside shot vs. Arizona in the last moments.

@Crimsonorblue22 Granted .. we also had one of the top 5 college basketball players ever leading us to the promised land. I'll try to be optimistic.

@Hawk8086 Do you think we can win a national title with Black playing the primary minutes in the post, as Embiid has?

@icthawkfan316 Man, Milton Doyle's brother is going to give you a piece of his mind with talk like that ....

@JRyman Much respect for Wesley. Jayhawk through and through.

@icthawkfan316 Right .. good memory. My "1 of the 3" was Traylor, Lucas, and Peters though, at the time, I believe. I do think Traylor and Lucas have both panned out. So heck, 2 of 3 is terrific. To be honest, I cannot be more pleased with where both of them are at this stage. Their development certainly has caused me to rethink my perspective on the outside the top 100 guys and how they can impact our program, in particular. I fully expect Traylor to be as good as Jackson, as well. I've been most impressed with the progress he's made on his offensive game. A very serviceable 3rd or 4th post guy.

@JRyman Oh, come on. You were saying he could win us a game. You want him to start, don't you?

No, no .. I understand. A "breather." Like at 10 seconds before the TV timeout. When we run a set play. Where Wesley goes and stands near half court. Self tells him to "just stay away from the ball."

Now, the "if he couldn't he wouldn't be on the team" thing -- I'm not sure Tyler Self would agree. But I understand your point.