🏀 KuBuckets Archive

I know there has been some discussion on LSU, and their recent commitment from Antonio Blakeney. They have Ben Simmons too. Now Craig Victor is leaving Arizona and LSU (he's from Louisiana) is immediately mentioned as being in the mix. Interesting. What is now making LSU so attractive?

New mock draft -- Oubre climbs to #9, Cliff down to #25. Here are comments on both players:

Kelly Oubre: In four out of his past five games, Oubre has been the best player on the floor for the Jayhawks. He has two 20-point games (against Lafayette and Kent State) and two double-doubles in his past four. He appears to get more aggressive by the game. While his shot wasn't falling in the UNLV game, he made up for it with terrific defense on Rashad Vaughn. Oubre is shooting 48 percent from 3-point range and has improved his 2-point shooting to 39 percent. If he keeps improving at this rate, there's a good change he's the first wing off the board.

Cliff Alexander: Alexander continues to be an effective energy guy coming off the bench. He took the most shots of his career on Sunday against UNLV and went 5-for-12 from the field for 10 points and five rebounds in 21 minutes. Alexander clearly has an NBA body and terrific athleticism and motor, but his basketball skills are lagging, and once again we saw him struggle a bit against the length of Goodluck Okonoboh and Christian Wood in the UNLV game. At this point, he's moving out of the lottery conversation and looks like he might be better off playing at least one more season at Kansas to polish his skills. Nevertheless, it's a long season and as Oubre proved, things can turn around quickly when the right opportunities come along.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/mock/?season=2015&version=5&source=Chad-Ford-Big-Board ↗

@JayHawkFanToo You do provide consistent entertainment, I'll give you that.

I saw all the recent predictions there, too .. lots of recent "action" on KU.

Personally, I'll be surprised if we land one perimeter player until and unless it's clear that we're losing two perimeter guys. Ingram may make sense since he's not a presumed OAD, and sparse playing time early may not be totally out of the realm of reason. Let's say we lose Oubre (draft) and Greene (transfer). A recruit would still have to overcome Selden and Svi at the 2 and the 3, with Graham getting PT in the rotation with Mason as the starting 1.

But Newman or Brown seem like a big reach with what we have returning, and how Self manages rotations (in contrast to the vaunted platoon).

@JayHawkFanToo It is odd that we agree .. I might have to reassess. There does seem to be a "goldilocks zone", so to speak, for three point attempts for each team. That 20-25 zone seems to be it with this team. One thing I will say is that even if they are struggling with it, like we were in the first half (3/11), we have to keep shooting them. It's like pounding it inside with an inside-out team, gotta keep choppin' wood. If a team takes our threes away by guarding the perimeter differently, that would be an obvious reason to deviate. But I think we can continue to get open looks. I like what Self did last game a lot.

I did see that trapping, and I really like it .. it helps with pace. I don't like when we'd use Embiid or Withey to it (risk of fouls). I don't want Cliff doing it. But the more mobile guys, I do.

Also, I don't know if folks read Self's comments today on Svi. A bit concerning. Here's what was at kusports.com:

Self said Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk should receive a lift this week when his parents visit from Ukraine. The 17-year-old freshman’s mom is Inna, a high school biology teacher, and dad is Iurri, a college history professor. “Mom and dad will come see him this week. We’ll be excited to have them here, give him (Svi) a hug, and I’m sure he’ll be feeling a lot better,” Self said of Mykhailiuk, who Self said is “really laboring now.” He has scored five points in KU’s last three games. “I talked to him a long time after practice today,” Self said on his “Hawk Talk” radio show. “He is the nicest, sweetest young man you could ever be around. Add the fact he’s two years younger than everybody, add the fact his parents are 5,000 miles away, it’s not an easy deal for him. I still think from a prospect standpoint he may be as good a prospect as we have if you grade everybody at age 21. He’s in a phase where he was more confident against Kentucky and Michigan State than in practice. I think he agrees with me.”

I have had the concern, really since his commitment, that a really young kid, coming half way across the world, would be a bigger risk to leave than a normal recruit. I do feel a bit better now, given his role. I read into these comments that Svi is struggling with the isolation here. It has to be hard. Seems natural to have difficulty like this.

Well here's the nice thing .. if we don't win the Big 12, we still can win a national title.

This team can win a national title. Whether this team can competently compete for that national title is up to coach Self, and how much he is willing to be flexible with his system, and adapt to his players. The signs are pointing in the right direction.

The scary thing with this team is the apparent possibility of a complete no-show, like the Temple game. That does not bode well for a 6 game NCAA tourney run. But that concern can be eliminated if we compete each and every night in conference.

I watched OU-Tex last night. Missed the last part of the first half. It's kind of interesting. Self commented yesterday about KU's poor shot % defense, citing that as a very important stat. Last night's OU-Tex game was all about Texas' poor shooting percentages. @drgnslayr pointed out the poor 3 %. Texas also shot just 30% on 2 point attempts. That seemed like the main item watching the game -- Texas couldn't get the ball in the hoop. They were really bad inside in that department too.

Not sure if OU was really that good, or Texas just didn't show up. Hard to tell, really.

@jaybate-1.0 -- He'll lose.

@nuleafjhawk Well, me too .. that comment was just a veiled reference to the "Self should not be criticized because he's won so much and is a highly paid." Of course, Drew has won a lot and is highly paid, too.

@JayHawkFanToo I would suggest that the number of three point attempts is not a red herring at all. It is an important, schematic, game-planning decision with this team. This team should work hard to get open three looks instead of other looks. This team can shoot 40% from three. The key, as you mention, are good looks. And that can be part of our current scheme quite easily. At half time of the UNLV game, on the cjonline blog, I mentioned when we were 3/11 to just keep shooting them and that 7/13 would have done nicely. I'll take 5-8. But we should have still shot more -- but no complaints with that half of basketball

I know that it is not an exact trade off, but I'd generally (in most games) choose scheming for threes over scheming for the post feed with this team -- except when we have the clear MUA inside. Clear MUA means 65% of shots at rim are made. That beats 40% of threes made.

But also, if we're getting good drives to the hoop, and transition baskets, we can have a very nice balance. On a normal day, we should shoot the 20-25 threes you metion to be at our best (I prefer closer to 25). We beat UNLV shooting 19 threes and pulled away late. The 5-8 was key in the second half.

You mention diminishing returns -- that does make sense. As we scheme to shoot them, teams will scheme to stop them. Thus a more outside-in game. By consequence, the defense will have to sacrifice inside.

I feel the transition in our approach is in progress. Self praised our shooting yesterday. He's sees it.

1) Texas 14-4

2) Oklahoma 13-5

2) Kansas 13-5 (losses at Texas, ISU, OU, OSU, and home to WVU)

4) Iowa St. 11-7

5) West Virginia 10-8

6) Baylor 9-9

7) TCU 6-12

7) Oklahoma St. 6-12

9) K-State 5-13

10) Texas Tech 3-15

The Baylor 1-1-3 match-up zone. As I've mentioned before, I've never been impressed with the execution, and thus the coaching of the Baylor zone. They never really seem to have a clear identity, though -- shifting to man many times (which they play notoriously bad) -- and they seem to give up easy baskets many times in their zone.

I admit, however, that Scott Drew has won more games than me at the college level and makes millions of dollars, so he must know what he's doing ...

Ok, more positivity - Evan Daniels has Kansas the 2-1 favorite to land Bragg; UK 7-1 and Illinois 10-1.

I continue to maintain my general recruiting pessimism because it just feels right.

But I do like this guy just a little bit ...

Recruiting Perfection: Bragg or Bust

Screw the Apocalypse.

@Hawk8086 Oubre and Mason are both shooting over 50% from three. Think of it this way, would you rather see them shoot threes, or Ellis and Traylor try to score inside? Now, I know that's not the only trade off. I'm just more anti-stagnant post feed. I have great confidence in our three point game right now. If we shot 6 more today, we would have likely made 2 (which is below our season %). That's six points. We don't shoot 3/6 from two, which we'd have to do to equalize. We literally shot the same from two point range as we did from three point range today. The math is undeniable. I'm not suggesting to just chuck 'em up. Just work to get good looks as the priority.

You mention Greene and Svi as contributing to the three game. Good point. But Greene played 8 minutes today and didn't shoot a three. My question is, if Greene plays and doesn't shoot a three, why not just play Svi? Stated another way, if Greene isn't going to shoot threes, should he really play?

If we are going to "free the three", we have to get Greene some shots. If he's hot, feed the monster. If not, no worries. Personally, Greene shooting four or five threes a game seems like the best use of his skill set.

A beautiful game? No. But this was a game that we took control of, and it was a game that was instructive on the direction of this team. Certainly a nice finish to non-con.

The most obvious change today was the 6 man rotation. Cliff got rotation level minutes off the bench, but Greene (8 minutes) and Svi (2 minutes), not so much. Svi wasn't seen until the second half. Mickelson and Lucas were nowhere to be found. That's the conference lead in. Welcome to the tightening of the rotation.

The next big topic was the three ball. Shooting 5/8 in the second half, and 8/19 for the game, there is even more evidence that this is the formula for this team.

But Self has made an adjustment that appears to be paying off -- he's sped the game up a bit. More transition baskets and a quicker pace have led to better offensive production.

Our first 15 points came from the field (11) and transition (4). Even more pronounced was the lack of pure "feed the post" attempts. A number of times our post players got the ball in non-traditional post feeds. Coming off screens, flashing, scripted plays. Self mentioned this a few days ago and by and large, followed through.

Look at the 10:05 minute mark in the first half when Cliff got the ball off a Greene screen; and then the 18:00 mark of the second half when Ellis flashed from the other side of the lane. Those are a couple examples of a creative approach to posting -- vs. the stagnant toss it in from the wing.

@Jesse-Newell mentioned in the pregame blog that Self installed a play called "forehead" -- Mason signals to his forehead, and Ellis gets a shot from the outside. This was one of our first baskets. Ellis shooting outside still fool's gold? Maybe. But Self is buying.

The star to me continues to be Frank Mason. I offer a formal apology for tagging him "no rank Frank." He's shooting over 50% from three and continues to mature in all phases of the game. Not a classic creator, but he brings a diverse game. Seth Greenberg mentioned that he had a little Iverson in him. Yes, he does. But I think he's just got a lot of Frank Mason in him, and that's fine with me. He's the Tyshawn Taylor we wish we could have had. More importantly, he is a national championship level point guard. He can lead us to the promised land.

Oubre threw in another double-double. Not his best offensive night, but he does hit the boards hard. This is a big deal in my mind. He creates possessions. He just needs to keep shooting.

We are going to struggle against length. UNLV was not "elite" length. Certainly not "physical" length. But we can beat length. Although I would have preferred our threes to total 25 attempts, we can slowly see the transformation of this team. Self is coming, kicking and screaming for sure, but he's coming. @Jesse-Newell noted that Self shook his head after a long Selden three, but was clapping after a short jumper by Cliff. But 19 threes is the right direction, to be sure.

@BeddieKU23 Ah, better news. By the way, Oubre chose KU over UK.

@KUSTEVE Thank you for the good news, my friend. Tyler Davis to Texas A&M was the other one that got away. Davis and Bragg would have been a mean combo down low in Self's system.

@Lulufulu I agree 100%. But I don't think Self is saying to necessarily have the post guys shoot more from outside. I think what Self is talking about is still getting shots close to the rim, but getting the ball to the guys differently. Our standard deal is the post entry pass to the stagnant big guy on the block. He's referring to the bigs receiving the ball in different ways, I believe.

For example, perhaps, more direct flashing across the lane (coming from the other side toward the ball), elbow to box slide (post at the elbow and slide down), some low to low exchange (movement between two bigs box to box -- or even elbow to box) or some screening action. I think that's what he means by "work(ing) back in."

Again, that seems real positive to me. But as you say, "talk is talk."

Need input from @konkeyDong . Bragg has been mentioning UK a lot. Most services have UK the favorite.

But I ask this ... why commit now? Three reasons I can think of: 1) he's dead sure, 2) to get it over with, or 3) because a coach says the spot might go to someone else.

My first thought was this was better for KU as there is not telling whether any UK big guys leave other than Cauley-Stein. Here, he'd play over everyone except Ellis and Alexander.

But I have no idea. I'm always a pessimist when it come to recruiting. A non-presumed OAD like Bragg is the perfect recruit. Would fit Self's system perfectly. Would be a nice foundation piece.

Did anyone else see the quote from Self the other day?

“It’d be nice to make shots. If you make shots, you can loosen defense and that kind of stuff,” Self said. “But our bigs aren’t big, so we need to get them away from the basket and work them back in rather than just post them all the time on the low block, because they will struggle scoring over length just as most people struggle scoring over length.”

I really like hearing this kind of talk from Self. This is some of the discussion we had a number weeks ago. Something to watch for today.

Just saw some info on twitter from Seth Greenberg .. UNC was running a 1-3-1 tonight and Greenberg commented that it "fit" UNC's personnel (yes, Roy was running a 1-3-1). He also said the following:

"Just like you need to fit your offense to your players it is important to fit your defensive system to your personnel."

Quite a contrast to coach Self's philosophy. Just different ways to skin a cat. But with that, Self's way should not be presumed correct each and every season simply because he's won games. Nor should his approach be given any deference from year to year. Other coaches win games being flexible and adapting.

@VailHawk I struggle to disagree with you. I think Svi has the best upside on the team of any player. I really like the "per minute" stats. For my money, those stats define the objective output of players more than any other stats. Svi lags in most of those categories.

But I go back to the eye test I mentioned after his first game here. He's off the charts (in my eye, at least). He also must be very smart because earned starts very early in his freshman year.

It would be quite bold of Self to start Svi and play him over Self. I'm a bit torn there. As much as I like Svi, he is 17 and his stats don't scream "start me" yet. I might be inclined to stick with Selden.

But on the objective stats, Greene outpaces Selden. What if Self started Greene at the two, and Oubre at the three? We would have our three best three point shooters on the floor. To me, that lineup plays to our strength best.

Don't get me wrong. I think Svi and Selden are better players. But right now, Greene is a bad a** three point threat. I believe the Kent St. game showed Self's thoughts there ... 7 minutes.

But from an offensive standpoint, if Mason, Greene, Oubre, Ellis, and Alexander each played 30+ minutes, isn't that five man squad the squad that would likely produce the most points?

To @jaybate-1.0's suggestion on massive three point shooting, if that squad shot 25 per game, does anyone doubt It this is the most potent offensive team?

@MoonwalkMafia Great post. Well thought out and goes right to the core of Kansas basketball -- I love your quote, "When you fail to adapt, you inevitably fail."

Could not have said it better.

I am truly fine with Self's "system." He just has to recruit and sign the players that fit the system. If circumstances dictate that he can't get those guys, or they leave early, then he has to adapt -- or as you say, he'll "inevitably fail."

This season's team is not the square peg, round hole team of last season. But it has an obvious skill set that is not the preferred skill Self likes to rely upon. And an inside-out game seems largely futile. It really seems sometimes that the entire KU world sees this, except for coach Self.

I am very encouraged by Oubre's emergence. That could change the entire dynamic.

Now, your Tharpe-love? Personally, I think his mere presence would have been an anchor on this team. He was a pouter by nature, and we wouldn't have landed Graham. I'm still quite satisfied by his departure.

@BeddieKU23 I like the "enigma" comment. I think it goes to what @drgnslayr was mentioning -- the EJ comparison. Comparably ranked players, who we were always waiting on to be consistently a top performer.

But I do think that Oubre can be "the man." This could help Selden and Ellis, both. Oubre seems like he has the attitude to demand the ball, and not be timid once he gets it.

I agree with @joeloveshawks -- Selden should be subject to getting pulled. I think Self's comments about Svi and Greene are just that. Given Selden's play, it would not surprise me to see Self put Selden on the bench in the final 5 minutes if Self doesn't think he's the best option to win the game. I wonder if the free pass is concluding as conference play is beginning.

This time next year, the story reads under the picture above:

"In what has to be the most odd and shocking story of 2015, coach Bill Self and former player, Elijah Johnson, announced that they were a couple. Coming out together in a joint statement, the pair agreed to become wed at the venue where their true love began -- in Ames, Iowa, on a cold winter night in 2012 when EJ shot down the Cyclones. At a public ceremony, coach Self grasped the reluctant bride's hand, and caressing his face, began reciting his vows. In the background, his best man observed the nuptials. Self said after the ceremony that EJ was one of the best ball handlers in the history of Kansas basketball. EJ commented that Bill Self was a tough, but fair coach. "He rode me hard, but it was worth it", said Johnson. The couple plans to live together in Lawrence."

All fiction, no malice -- please don't sue me.

In watching Wayne Selden now for two seasons, I'm curious about Selden's position as unquestioned starter for Kansas. It's not only coach Self. Literally ever projected or suggested lineup offered here includes Selden. So why the Selden free pass?

I believe the answer is simple from Self's standpoint - Self is sure that Selden is one of the best players on the team.

Right now, I'm not so sure.

Could Self be wrong about Selden?

Selden was the #12 player in the 2013 recruiting class. He is now a sophomore, and a player all looked to be an on court leader. But look at Selden's numbers. They are astoundingly pedestrian, and underwhelming.

In 12 games, Selden has played 31 minutes per game, second most on the team, and is averaging just 8.8 points per game. At 6'5", many envisioned Selden as different type of player, more physical, more active perhaps -- Selden is averaging just 3.3 rebounds per game.

One many times unmentioned issue is steals. Turnover creations is an issue that has been raised by Self with this team.Selden is perhaps the worst offender, averaging just .7 steals per game. Oubre has more steals in nearly half the minutes, and a rate of .047 per minute, which is nearly three times Selden (.018 per minute). That is astounding to me. Selden has just 7 steals in 372 minutes played. That's effectively nothing. All perimeter players have more than Selden per minute, except Greene (who has zero). So Selden is really an effective "zero" and Greene is an actual "zero."

Selden's three point shooting percentage hasn't improved much since last season. He stands at 34.1 (vs. 32.8%). Only Svi is lower among perimeter players. And three -- Greene, Oubre, Mason, and Graham are all substantially better than Selden from three.

Last season, Selden's name was present on multiple mock draft boards. Now, he's an afterthought. The most recent evidence in support of his drop in status was the poor performance against Kent St. Selden shot just 1-7 from the floor and got burned a number of time on defense.

Selden's per minute numbers are worse than his game averages would lead on. Selden is rebounding at a rate of .099 per minute played is the worst among the 11 scholarship players. His points per minute played is sixth on the team.

Further, we've seen Selden miss multiple opportunities as the basket and his defense has gone from good to suspect. Does anyone view Selden as a potential shut-down defender any more? That's not the conversation any longer.

To Selden's credit, he was spectacular against Florida, and he has done well in the assist department. With Graham out, we need him for a handful of minutes each game at the point.

But we need more from Selden. And it appears Self is content to simply run Selden out there for 30+ per game, regardless of result. Just last week, we saw the first chink in Selden's armor. Self said after the Kent St. game, "I’d like to see Brannen and Svi play more to put more pressure not only on Kelly but Wayne (Selden, five points, 1-of-7 shooting). We’ve got to get Wayne being more productive and consistent, too.”

Selden's numbers, in literally every category, are worse than Frank Mason. Brannen Greene averages .403 points per minute played (vs. Selden's .282) and .124 rebounds per minute (vs. Selden's .099).

Selden's possible replacements in the starting lineup -- Svi and Greene -- have their warts, to be sure. Svi is a pre-freshman given his age, and his development is a work in progress. Greene is a somewhat one dimensional player, who appears to be the worst perimeter defender on the team. Greene's one dimension has been marginalized by Oubre's three point shooting right now. Is there any reason to play Greene over Oubre? Greene is not able to get to the rim like Selden can (even if Selden isn't finishing). And Svi's scoring has not been better than Selden, from a numbers perspective. Hard to argue that either should displace Selden.

Here, I don't have a solid answer. My standard analysis on personnel is to go with the guy who will be your best player in March. Right now, I don't think there is a easy answer to that question.

The wildcard is Devonte Graham. Self has mentioned a preference to ball handling, and his preseason chatter was playing two ball handlers provided Kansas the best option. We see that Mason is a real-deal scoring option, shooting over 50% from three. Where would our lineup be right now if Devonte Graham had not gotten hurt?

If Graham could return to prior form, with Oubre cemented at the three, Selden's minutes could be at risk if he doesn't improve. But I doubt if Graham can return and impact the starting lineup. He'll need to get into shape, and catch up. His role might be taking Manning's job of emergency point guard.

So for now, it's Selden and more Selden. We just have to hope that Selden can find his game, and lift Kansas in the process.

If Self leaves, I don't think it will be burn-out, but seeking a new challenge. But the fact that he's been here so long leads more to the conclusion that he may stay here like a coach K, or a Boeheim, as mentioned above.

But this shouldn't be a worry at all. If he leaves, we'll be fine. I'm confident in that.

@Crimsonorblue22 Don't get your hopes up. Let me ask you, why should that be the "first game (they) tried it?" Why script and make the secondary break so "mechanical and robotic" in the first place? This is one of those deals where I think I could hear any purported explanation and I wouldn't buy it, but I'm all ears.

Self doesn't even permit the team to try to break off of made baskets. They stand around waiting for the designated guy the throw the ball in most of the time.

@jaybate-1.0 You know I love threes .. but it's a 60-40 rule on threes. 40% is about as high as a team could shoot threes. You mention 38%. If you shoot 60% from two, you'll be equal to 40% from three. KU has historically shot over 60% at shots near the rim, sometimes at 65%. "Near the rim" is key. Not ever two pointer, but just near the rim.

This, I think, is why Self subscribes to the pound it inside theory.

But of course, when you have team that can't score at that rate inside. That is nearer to 50% at the rim, then you only have to shoot 34% from three.

Thus the inescapable logic of shooting more threes with this KU team.

@Crimsonorblue22 you responded to @nuleafjhawk as if the 19 points really mean something. Have you seen the prior 11 games? Here's a very interesting insight from Landen Lucas, speaking about our secondary break:

“Instead of having everything kind of mechanical and robotic — you go here and you go here — it’s kind of go wherever, just make sure you get the ball side to side as soon as we get downcourt,”

This was apparently implemented before the Kent St. game.

But the real news is how "mechanical and robotic" Self demanded the secondary break to be in the first place, before that. Self is realizing we need to "manufacture" offense -- his words. So he's loosening the reigns on his secondary break thinking this can help.

The micromanagement of the secondary break is astounding to me. These guys aren't children.

I just try to analyze the logic. If not being "mechanical and robotic" in the secondary break provides more offense, why not do it all the time? Good grief.

Self places an artificial ceiling on his offense, by demanding such a strict adherence to system. It's a "one in the hand vs. two in the bush" philosophy. It's extremely conservative.

I love this quote from an NBA scout about Andrew Wiggins, because it provides such an insight into the truth:

"In general, interesting kid. In fairness to him he played in a very restricted system at Kansas. All interchangeable parts with designated spots, a lot of structure. When he got the ball, there wasn’t a lot of room to create."

The comment from Lucas is even more insight into what we already know.

@jaybate-1.0 I'm tracking with your theory here. I agree that Self is approaching games as you suggest. But I think it is a core tenant of Self's overall philosophy.

Before I get to that, I wanted to discuss coach Self briefly. My perspective on coach Self (himself) is, I think, a bit different than yours. You said, "Self being the acutely flexible ... "

I view coach Self much differently. I think coach Self is inflexible and dogmatic. In fact, in my years of following sports, participating in sports, and coaching sports, there are few coaches that (in my humble opinion) match coach Self's inflexibility. I believe that a large chunk of great coaches are more inflexible than flexible. I think Self's inflexibility is very comparable to Marty Shottenheimer.

I will admit that my opinion there doesn't really challenge your theory on how Self is approaching this season. I might suggest your statement "Self being the acutely flexible ..." is not really necessary to support your theory, anyway.

I think that your theory fits perfectly within the bubble of Self's inherent inflexibility.

Why? As you stated, Self isn't sitting there strategizing on how he might adjust to win games "Self is no longer sitting on the bench trying to figure out how to win" is what you said. I summarize your theory as Self simply looking to muck up each game, or seeking to play "grinders" as Self has said.

I can't say that I disagree with that. And that is what concerns me (and you, and many of us). It always concerns me. In fact, it seems irrational to me.

However, I think that "mucking up" games and creating conditions for the opposition to beat themselves is a valid part of an overall approach. But it shouldn't be more than half the focus. Part of your gameplan, to be sure. But my steadfast belief is that you have to affirmatively gameplan to "take" what you want. And you have to do that when you have largely superior talent.

I also think that the theory you have suggested is in large part the m.o. that Self has consistently had during his tenure here. This approach is largely tied to a defense first philosophy. The "muck" it up approach. He has found ways, much to our dismay, to play close games with very poor teams. To almost seem content in that fact. But we win an incredibly large percentage of all games.

Thus why Self is content to run his "stuff", and rely on his "system." Muck it up is the consistent m.o. But like Marty Schottenheimer, I believe that such an approach limits the top end that a team can achieve. It creates an artificial ceiling. And that, I'll never understand.

@jaybate-1.0 Thanks for the entertaining approach to post game discussion. It put me in a little better mood. But I'm struggling after this game. It's really worse to me than the Temple game.

I have some questions for the world:

-Could it be that Jamari Traylor has a force field-like bubble around him when a rebound comes off the rim?

-How does Kansas have Traylor and Lucas playing together ... ever?

-Can we assume that Hunter Mickelson had a bad week of practice?

-Is there any more puzzling player than Wayne Selden?

-Does Brannen Greene live in the Towers, or in a doghouse behind Allen Fieldhouse?

-How does Ellis get 5 of his shots blocked in the first 12 minutes of the game, against Kent St. (one was a foul, but I'm counting it)?

-What is a better risk, Svi/Greene/Oubre/Mason/Selden shooting a three, or post players that (a) get their shot blocked all the time, (b) are low skill level, or (c) are only good enough to play 13 minutes against Kent St., shooting within 5 feet of the rim?

We are 10-2. We'll win Sunday and be 11-2. That's all that counts I guess. But we just seem very far away from being a team that can win a national championship right now. I'm usually confident in our chances. I just need to sleep on it.

@drgnslayr If you look at the offensive efficiency numbers that Newell had posted back in early December, he compared quite well to Okafor. That has changed over the past few weeks -- as you note, Okafer is more skilled right now. But don't get discouraged. He has a nice jumper and I really believe that more time on the floor is the cure for him. I'm betting that we'll see some real progress when we discuss this topic in 30 days. I wouldn't doubt that between now and then, Cliff will average double figure points -- if he gets his minutes. I agree that right now, he doesn't look like an OAD. We have a lot of season left for that to change -- a double edged sword, of course.

You are absolutely correct. Guys develop at different rates. That's the key for us all to remember.

@JayHawkFanToo Are you suggesting that we shouldn't play Cliff the 30 mpg I suggest because he might foul out sometimes?

@JayHawkFanToo I'm running pretty hard at work today, so quick response - appreciate you pointing out the foul issue. I dropped the ball. I had meant to include that. It seems favorable for Cliff.

Cliff fouls at only .102 per minute played, which is 3.06 fouls for 30 minutes. Compare to the worst on the team, Lucas, at .172 per minute (5.16 for 30 minutes, for example), and the best (Svi) at .039.

By comparison, the foul master, Tarik Black, was at .208 per minute played last season, and Embiid was at .145 per minute played, both substantially higher than Cliff.

Of course his good foul rate could be due, in part, to Self's management of that issue thus far, by not starting him. I think certainly he could end up fouling out a few games, but I think it's well worth the risk.

Last season, I declared in November that I believed that Joel Embiid was the most important player to our national title hopes. This season, as we sit here on December 28, 2014, the most important player is undoubtedly Cliff Alexander. Cliff Alexander is the one player most tied to our national title hopes.

Cliff Alexander needs to average 30 mpg the rest of the season. Here's why.

1. While we may become an outside-in team, the inside game must function. Inexorably, while we can emphasize our outside game, shoot threes, and let our athletes outside be the focus, we have to have talent inside in coach Self's system. Outside-in includes the "in." It is not simply gunning three pointers. We need to score inside effectively. This is a coach Self coached team. Focusing on the outside component is what I've suggested, but it is a tweak. Self won't (and possibly can't) change the system right now. We will play three out, two in. We're not playing four out, one in. We can wish, hope, speculate, strategize all we want. We can imagine a fast paced game, with some full or 3/4 court presses, unfazed by working the shot clock. But we know Self will not do it. Thus, we need talent to score and rebound inside. This may not end up being the bread and butter, but it has to function competently.

2. Cliff is our most talented big man. I say that with absolute certainty. He is not yet the most skilled -- that honor falls to Ellis. But when you see Cliff excel, we see a guy who is physically imposing, a guy who has a nice touch from outside, and a guy who can have unmatched tenacity on this roster (or possibly matched by only Mason). Long arms. He's a true post player. No discussion of Cliff being an NBA three.

3. Cliff has the most rebounds per minute played of any Jayhawk at .321. He has virtually the same number of rebounds as Ellis in two-thirds of the minutes. That figure is comparable to Markieff Morris in his junior season (.341) and Embiid last season (.350), and exceeds Marcus (.264), Withey (.275) and Perry (.224). The gold standard was TRob at .373 per minute. Further, Cliff is third on the team in points scored per minute played at .439, behind Oubre (.453) and Ellis (.448 ).

4. At 30 minutes a game, his numbers translate nearly to a double-double: 13.17 ppg, 9.63 rpg. The only players under Self to average a double-double were Simien (2005), TRob (2012), and Aldrich (2009). Aldrich was .2 rpg away from a double-double in 2010. No one else would be closer than Cliff at 30 minutes per game. Cliff has the best field goal percentage of everyone on the team except Mickelson, who has largely played mop up duty this season.

5. We need Cliff in large part because Jamari Traylor is playing exactly to his non-ranking as a junior. He is not a starter. He is barely an adequate first big off the bench. I believe that Jamari has plateaued. We're seeing the same Jamari we saw last season. Jamari is rebounding poorly at his normal rate of .214 per minute played (5th on the team), and scoring just .250 points per minute played (9th on the team). Traylor's field goal % is just 39.5, where Cliff's is 51.8%. We can't rely on Traylor for anything, except a few nice blocks and a few peaks to go with the valleys. By comparison, Traylor trails Landen Lucas in both points per minute, and rebounds per minute. Cliff has also more blocks per minute played than Traylor.

6. Another reason we need Cliff at 30 mpg is that our other backups, Lucas and Mickelson, are less than stellar. In other words, we have no other real answers. Nothing that has much real upside. In a normal year, you might not have a big average 30 mpg. This season is different. In 2011-12, TRob averaged over 30 mpg. We had a very tight rotation. We should view this season as the same. Cut down on Lucas, Traylor, and Mickelson. Go Cliff 30, Ellis 30, and let the others combine for 20 (assuming Self won't play small at the four). Personally, I like the idea of favoring Mickelson a bit over Traylor in test run for a while -- but that's another topic.

7. One obvious reason that we need Cliff to play 30 minutes per game is that Ellis is struggling without competent assistance. My personal belief is that Ellis would not be struggling near as much if Cliff was playing more. That is our best combo. The scoring and rebounding numbers support that. Cliff is only playing 18.6 minutes per game. By comparison, an inferior player, Jamari Traylor, is playing 19.6 minutes per game. But we need Cliff to play more, and play well. We need to get him there.

8. Playing Cliff more will make it more likely that he is better in March. The more playing time, the more likely that he'll be closer to his potential freshman peak. Does anyone think that we can function effectively in March, inside, as presently composed? I don't. We need improvement. Cliff working through the kinks is imperative. Self has to stomach the growing pains if we are to get Cliff to his potential freshman peak.

9. On the improvement theme, no other big offers the upside potential. We might see Mickelson get an uptick. I don't see it from Lucas right now. Traylor is most likely to be his normal self. Incredibly good sometimes -- see EKU. But incredibly bad and a liability other times. Mostly, he will remain serviceable. We won't win a national title with "serviceable" playing over Cliff, or playing the same minutes as Cliff.

10. The final point I would offer in support of playing Cliff more minutes is that many of his mistakes are of the "just missed it" variety. A put back, a rebound out of his hands, and missed lob, and misplayed entry pass. But we have seen the flashes. And the flashes are dominating. We have no other big that has the potential to dominate.

We're heading into conference play in a few weeks. It's time to rap up the minutes for Cliff. It's why you bring in this kind of talent. Letting him sit the bench in favor of obviously inferior players makes little sense. This team is challenged offensively. Cliff provides the best opportunity to increase our offensive production inside. Cliff needs to play 30 mpg going forward. Let's start with Kent St.

The things that Withey did that was most impressive to me was going straight up when blocking a shot, and being patient before leaving his feet. He'd let guys pump fake, pivot, etc., knowing that he could still alter the shot w/o leaving his feet. I think without doubt he was the best defensive center in KU history since Wilt. Embiid, if he'd stayed through his junior season, had the chance to be one of the best players in school history. But "ifs" don't make for squat. I'd take Withey. The magic of the 2012 run was, in large part, the perfect compliment that TRob was to Withey, and that Withey was to TRob.

Got me thinking again .. kind of dangerous.

How about this:

1. NBA adopt a policy that kids can go to the NBA immediately out of school.

2. NCAA responds by stating that each school may designate one open scholarship per season as an "Initial Re-Application" scholarship. To qualify, a player must have signed an LOI with the school. Then would have to reapply for the scholarship after being drafted. The player could return and play.

3. NBA adopts a policy that if a player who declares and has never played college basketball reapplies and gets a scholarship in the NCAA, he cannot be eligible to be drafted until the first draft after the player turns 21.

4. NBA permits a player to declare for the draft after a player's freshman, sophomore, or junior season as well.

5. NCAA permits each team to designate two of its scholarships as "Returning Re-Application" scholarship to be used for players that played at the school ... such as a freshman. Then the incoming sophomore, junior, or senior can reapply for his scholarship if he wants to return to school.

6. NBA requires a player who applied for the draft after playing in college to wait two seasons before reapplying. So if a player applies after his sophomore season, and returns to school, he must wait until after what would be his senior season.

Kind of thinking out loud. Am I missing something in this suggestion? This is assuming we don't get some two season requirement out of the NBA. Also tries to give players some options.

@jaybate-1.0 Great read, by the way.

@ParisHawk -- exactly. Mine is a college game discussion, as I had noted. That is all that is relevant for this season. @JayHawkFanToo is of course right about the NBA. Perry's not an NBA four for sure, and to make any roster, he'd have to be a three. Different game.

Fyi, Marcus' and Ellis' measurements are virtually the same.

Morris measured 6'7" w/o shoes, 6.8.75 with shoes at the NBA camp; 230 pounds. Wingspan 6'10".

Ellis measure 6'7" w/0 shoes at one camp, and 6'8" with shoes at the Lebron camp (the w/o shoes measurement is obviously more reliable as it does not depend on which brand shoes you are wearing); 222 pounds. Wingspan 6'10".

TRob was about an inch taller, but had 5 inches more in wingspan. That's a big deal. Arthur was 1/2 inch taller, with .75 of an inch more in wingspan. Simien was .25 of an inch taller. 2 inches more of wingspan. There were some differences in camp measurements and NBA measurements for the prior Jayhawks.

@icthawkfan316 I would say that what all of us need to do with Ellis is simply accept him for who he is. He has many excellent aspects of this game that can be exploited. Ellis is one of those guys that may not fit Self's system exactly. For my money, TRob was the absolute perfect four in Self's system, with Marcus a close second. Marcus had more range, and was a more complete player, but TRob was a freak -- perfectly matched with Withey.

I agree completely with your suggestion of "overreaction." The overreaction, I believe, is based on expectation. @JayHawkFanToo mentioned preseason honors and discussion. That creates the expectation, as well as our expectations for the spot.

But Self creates that expectation -- he mentioned Ellis as our go to guy. Self said, “I’d turn to Perry. I’d put the ball in Perry’s hands in some way, shape or form and say, ‘Hey go do it,’’’ But I'd agree with @JayHawkFanToo -- "Perry is not by nature at 'go-to' guy but has been thrust into that position by default."

It seems that we have all recognized to one degree or another that this team is not an inside-out team, and can't be predominantly inside-out against a number of opponents (most recently the vaunted Temple Owls). @ralster mentioned the look on Ellis' face during our last game. I agree with that. I saw the same thing. But that, to me, is a result of being cast into a difficult situation. I really didn't like seeing that at all. My biggest frustration from the Temple games, as the days have past since that game, is Ellis being put in that difficult spot down low.

All this means is that Self has to adapt to his team's strengths and weaknesses. Adapting to Ellis' is a large part of that. Ellis needs a solid running mate down low -- and there's only one guy that can fill that bill. Cliff. Or, we need a different type of post player at the top of the high-low, like and Oubre or Selden.

@JayHawkFanToo Perry's natural position is not the three. This is a complete fiction. He's never, ever been a three. He doesn't have the skill set or the game of a three. He has a skill set of a four. This is college, not where someone thinks he might fit in the NBA.

I compare him to fours at Kansas for a good reason ... that is the position he plays. Further, 1) He's always played that spot, 2) He is listed on Rivals/ESPN as a four, 3) He was recruited as a four, 4) Self has never, ever even implied that he would consider playing Ellis at the three (like he has implied smaller guys playing the four, for example), 5) He is 6'8" just like the fours, and 5) he has the quickness (or lack thereof) like fours do.

Have you ever seen Ellis get up and down the court like, for example, Marcus Morris? Run the break? Marcus was more of a three than Ellis has ever sniffed. And he was a better four (this season being only 1/4 over).

To suggest that Ellis is a more natural three is without any support on or off the court. It is puzzling. What it really is, is a futile attempt to explain away Ellis' deficiencies. Really, he's just not as good so far as TRob and Marcus were; and Arthur and Wright were arguably better as sophomores. There's no shame in that. It's just reality. That reality doesn't make him a three.

Look at the college game. There are no comparable threes to Ellis. Ellis is 6'8". He does not have a quick first step (example, Traylor is quicker). He's not a jump shooter. He shoots a set shots. You'll rarely see him shoot from the outside if someone is in his face. Why? He shoots a low shot, from his chin. He get that low shot blocked. That's is not what a three's jumper looks like. His ability to drive doesn't come close to comparing to Oubre, Greene, Svi, Selden, Rush, Releford, or even Morningstar -- any three you can think of. Or some fours, like Morris, Traylor, or even KY. When Ellis drives, it is usually to get close to make a post move. Further, can Ellis even come close to being a decent ball handler like many threes? No. Do you think Ellis could guard a three with any proficiency? Chasing an Oubre, Svi, or Selden around?

There is no evidence, on or off the court, that Ellis is anything but a four. Ellis is a pure four. The only thing that makes one consider him a possible three is the fact that he has deficiencies as a four. We also speculate that he's won't make it in the NBA as a four.

Ellis being more of a three than a four is simply a myth.

Ellis has got a lot of season left, plus another season. Development comes in different stages. I doubt he's done getting better.

@JayHawkFanToo All I do is speak for myself here, but I appreciate Ellis for exactly what he is. He has certain skills and abilities. Those skills and abilities do not translate to consistent performances in the role that he has been cast. He is not a "go to" guy. That is because he cannot reliability score against certain types of opponents. His limitations have been exposed even further this season.

Remember Stanford? He went a miserable 3-10 from the field. None of those were three pointers. Folks have mentioned Wiggins' poor stats that game (when Stanford plainly game planned to stop him). But very few mentioned Ellis' no show. That 3-10 showing is what we get from Ellis many times.

The reason he gets so little love is that we have expectations for that position -- reasonable expectations of a junior groomed for this spot. We have seen what we need from that position with players in the past, and Ellis thus far this season has not shown that he can provide that. This is heightened because of our inside out approach. We get Ellis the ball on the block, the entire Jayhawk universe is watching.

As the "go-to" guy, Perry's numbers are pretty much equal to Darrell Arthur's sophomore season -- when he we was the third or fourth option. Pretty much equal to Julian Wright's sophomore season. But Perry is a junior. Marcus and TRob in their junior seasons averaged 17.2 and 17.7 ppg, and both rebounded the ball better. Perry is averaging just 12.5 ppg.

Perry can be the "go to" guy against certain opponents. But he is what he is. We just can't put too much reliance on him. He's best served as the third option, which is by no means an insult. The dude can play. We just need to play to his strengths and put him in positions to succeed, best we can do.

And a fully operational Cliff Alexander might help, too.

@justanotherfan I agree with @wrwlumpy -- I think you nailed it with the Woodbury analogy.

On the rotation/starters, he's what I would do:

Starters: Mason, Selden, Oubre, Ellis, Cliff.

I would not waver on the starters. Leave them alone. This is the group that provides the most scoring options. If Oubre wasn't shooting the three ball well, I'd think differently here. Scoring is the priority. Defense does not suffer with this group.

Bench - Perimeter Players: This is easy, Svi should be the first perimeter guy off the bench. He plays good defense, and he's earned it. He might be the player with the highest ultimate upside. Greene is obviously next. But Greene should be used literally every minute that he's shooting the ball well. Ahead of Selden, Oubre, or Svi. And I guess that should be the theme with this team. Hot shooters prevail. Don't yank guys, but if someone is feeling it, don't play Selden just because he's Selden.

Bench - Post Players: This is harder, but I'd bench Lucas. Meaning have him assume Mickelson's prior role. But the most important part is to play Cliff, for better or worse. This is kind of by default. Neither Traylor, Mickelson, nor Lucas are high minutes answers. It's the hand we are dealt. So we have to go with Cliff. Cliff's emergence is our only hope for big things this season, and that the case even if we're raining threes. If Ellis is in a funk, we have to improvise. We've learned that continuing to pound it into Ellis hoping for a change in fortune is unwise.

Playing Small - I know, total pie in the sky. But if Ellis is floundering inside, I'd rather have Greene or Svi on the floor as opposed to Traylor or Mickelson in his place -- at least for stretches. Greene or Oubre could slide into the 4 spot, and play a little pick and pop from the top. I have no idea why Self thinks this is so risky, or completely outside of the box. But when you've recruited so that your best players are on the perimeter, it seems reasonable. Remember, Self said that the reason he considered playing perimeter guys at the 4 spot was because of the overload on the perimeter before CF left. It stands to reason that simply playing your best players might be as good of a reason.

The best defense known to basketball ... 1-3-1. I continue to wonder what last year's team could have done if Self would have flipped to a zone in early December.

@Crimsonorblue22 I'll have to second that one. The bigs can't finish once they get the ball.

The interesting thing is that we were 7-19 from three (36.8%). That isn't horrible. 8-19 is pretty stout (42%), so one make away from excellent three point shooting.

This game had little to do with scheme from Self's perspective. It was good old fashioned "want to", as Roy would say. When you get blown out by 25 by an average team, it's "want to."

"Want to" is fixable.

The systemic problem of our bigs' inability to score at the rim is, unfortunately, a totally different conversation.

@DanR The key for Ellis is expanding his bag of tricks.

Remember Simien and Marcus? Both had pretty sweet fade away shots, and turn around jumpers. The simple problem with Ellis is that defenders do not have to respect him beating them going backward.

Ellis is just easy to defend when well scouted.

Opposing coaches are attacking his spin move and closing up the space. You've got this one diagnosed pretty well.

I really feel for coach Self right now. He just witnessed his best post player go 1-10 from the field and look completely overmatched and ineffective -- against just average players. Really, all of our post players were completely useless. We couldn't score inside at all, we couldn't grab rebounds, and we couldn't stop anything inside. This was just unreal.

@wrwlumpy @jaybate-1.0 I can't hardly come to this thread because of that picture now ...

@drgnslayr - Excellent thread.

I personally don't see the Mickelson deal from yesterday as a sure thing related to anything yet. But I do see 1) It is likely that he has displaced Lucas for now as the 4th big, and 2) that it could be some evidence that Self is adjusting his offensive focus to fit his talent.

I think Self was hopeful Lucas could be some sort of presence as a more true "center" type. That appears dead.

@jayhawk-007 You are correct on three point attempts.

Here is the progression of three pointers made per game/three point attempts per game/three point percentage, in the seasons under Self:

1. 2003-04: 5.69/17.03/33.5%

2. 2004-05: 6.6/17.96/36.7%

3. 2005-06: 6.21/16.33/38.0%

4. 2006-07: 6.07/15.36/39.6%

5. 2007-08: 6.77/17.07/39.7%

6. 2008-09: 6.2/16.71/37.1%

7. 2009-10: 7.27/18/40.4%

8. 2010-11: 7.13/18.68/38.2%

9. 2011-12: 5.69/16.48/34.5%

10. 2012-13: 5.83/16.05/36.4%

11. 2013-14: 5.4/15.88/34.5%

12. 2014-15: 6.2/15.7/39.5% (through 10 games)

Going into Utah, the numbers were 5.5/15.37/35.8%.

@jaybate-1.0 Thanks for tackling the topic.

The question that puzzles me is "why?" Why has Mickelson been completely shut out this season? No one saw this coming. Sure, we could have predicted he might be the 5th post guy. But his separation, in a negative sense, from the rest of the team in general has been remarkable.

Here's what I had said back in early October in summary of Self's preseason discussion of Hunter -- 2:25 of the video link text:

Mickelson: This was odd. He said very clearly that Mickelson was a "prototypical 4", and that he's a face up guy. He seemed to make it clear that playing Mickelson and Ellis together wouldn't work because Ellis needed a guy who could be the primary rebounder and guard in the post -- again, inferring Mickelson couldn't do that. He said he'd have to do some more things to compete for playing time. But he also complimented his shot blocking.

I think Self saw Mickelson as a certain type of player, and determined that he would not fit with Ellis in an inside/out scheme. He saw the other bigs as better compliments.

I really am glad we have a game on Monday, a quick turnaround. We may have our answer pretty quickly.

It appears to me that Self may be recognizing that Lucas, unfortunately, is playing exactly to his non-ranking. This may not be his year. He has two seasons left, so he could develop more. I'm not that optimistic.

But back to Mickelson. Another reason I think hypothetical #3 is the answer, is Traylor's skill set. Self has spoken positively about Traylor's ability to drive the basketball. That skill set fits hypothetical #3. Lucas is just not a scorer on the block. Hunter is the next option.

Here's the quote from yesterday. I know I may be reading too much into it. But it is significantly different that the quotes after last weekends game.

Self said: "We need Perry to score. In games where it’s a struggle to score, we’ve got to have somebody to throw it to. Perry will be that guy.”

See how that is different? It's not "first option", or "inside-out", or "we're not getting it inside" -- it's "In games where it's a struggle to score, we've got to have somebody to throw it to."

Two things. First, that implies scoring inside with Ellis is not the first option. It's the back-up plan. A fall back if we can't get it done in other ways. Second, the focus on Ellis implies there isn't another real option for reliable scoring inside. Both support hypothesis 3.

I'm cautiously optimistic. But I feel these "giddy" feelings again, last felt when I actually saw Svi play and realized the dude is the real deal. I have to relax here. Self could pull the rug out anytime. But I'm seeing and hearing a change.

Hunter Mickelson playing was the biggest sign. It was the biggest flip-flop from the first nine games. It is the best evidence. Why does Mickelson suddenly appear? Why did Self make a point before the game of commenting on how well Mickelson practiced? One reading could be that it signals a seismic shift. That makes the most sense, when adding everything up, including Self's preseason comments about Mickelson.

Could it be that Self looked at the Utah game, much as we did (and assessed the offensive struggles in general), and with a week off, said "I want the first half against Utah, not the second half"?

If Lucas is anything but the 5th big Monday, I'll have to reassess. But I'm sensing a shift ...

@KansasComet --- changing his handle to, @KansasProphet.

@brooksmd FYI, I did not refer to our subs as scrubs. I referred to the walk-ons that Lucas was playing with in the last minute as scrubs. Perhaps that wasn't clear. Meaning, one moment, he's starting; then, by the end of the game, he's got mop up duty.