Last night shows what good teams will do to this team with Garrett playing heavy minutes. UK just didn't guard him, and he couldn't deliver.
That meant Garrett's man was always the helper, meaning Vick and Grimes rarely were left open for three. It's a trickle down.
Kentucky showed the blueprint for how KU's season will end. A 1-10 shooting performance from Garrett as KU struggles to score and stumbles in the second half. That's what's coming if this rotation doesn't change.
Given the population difference, KU has to recruit Missouri heavily. It's our best regional recruiting base.
Grimes doesn't have a lot of confidence in his shot right now. Self has had a pretty quick hook with him the last several games. Against Iowa State, Grimes was effectively benched in the second half (did not play until Agbaji fouled out). That was a red flag to me because it suggested that Self had given up on Grimes.
Now, obviously I don't know if Self talked to him about it or not. But the implication when you have a guy that has been starting, and then he doesn't get into the game in the second half until after the under 8 timeout when a teammate fouled out is that he is being moved out of the rotation.
Grimes, from a talent/ability perspective, is probably the best player on this team. He's no worse than second best. That talent was on display in high school. It was on display during the U18 tournament this summer.
But there's something very telling about Grimes in particular. His jumpshot has been slumping, and yet he is being used as a three point shooter almost exclusively.
For the U18 team, Grimes shot 77 total shots, of which 25 were threes. That means about a third of his shots were threes. For KU he has attempted 139 total shots. 71 of those have been threes. Simply put, Grimes' shot distribution is skewed. He's shooting way too many threes. Part of that is shot selection on his part. Part of that is aggressiveness on the drive from him. And part is schematic.
Shot selection - Grimes needs to shoot only open, rhythm threes for the next several games. Catch and shoot in rhythm. Basically, pick out only the highest quality threes to take. Turn down the rest.
Aggressiveness - Since he's going to be turning down a couple of threes a game, those have to turn into aggressive drives with dangerous intent. Basically, he needs to drive looking to tomahawk someones head into the basket when he turns down jumpers. Just turn the corner and attack.
Scheme - Move Grimes to the strong side more, or even on the ball some. Grimes has spent a lot of time off the ball, standing in the corner or on the wing spacing the floor. He has to become more involved, and that means being in different places, and not just used as a floor spacer.
I think Self will salvage the regular season, but the direction he is heading looks like it will be at the expense of any chance at a deep postseason run.
Self appears to be abandoning Grimes at this point and putting this team in the hands of D. Lawson (good idea) and Marcus Garrett (not as good an idea). Dotson has leveled out. Vick will still have games where he is huge.
This recipe puts a definite ceiling on this team. I am imagining a Round of 32 exit right now. If you disagree, answer this question - if the Iowa State and Texas games are not in AFH, does KU win either of those games? That's why this team seems to be trending towards a team that will be solid through the rest of the regular season, but once they get away from AFH for half the games, the trends don't look as promising.
My prediction would be that KU ties Tech for the title, preserving the streak, gets a 2 seed, loses to a 7 in the Round of 32 at a neutral site.
BeddieKU23 said:
A Generational problem. CBS just posted a chart showing 47% of all D-1 prospects will transfer during their career.
With Jaylen who knows.. Maybe wants a fresh start. TCU recruited a ton of guards recently. The freshman Davis played well against KU recently. Dixon also signed a Top 100 PG for 2019 and has another 4-star combo-guard signed. Writing on the wall? I don't know.
Remember, scholarships aren't four year guarantees. Someone may not have their scholarship renewed. Transfers happen all the time. Regular students (i.e. non athletes) transfer all the time. That has happened for a long time. It's not generational. It's not even just athletes.
I don't get the Shaka hate here. He's a solid coach. Is it really just because he got his team prepared to beat us on a big stage when Self fell into one of his old habits (i.e., playing certain guys too much). That's not Shaka Smart's fault. We complain about that on this board all the time. Shaka Smart had a team that exploited that.
He would have gotten a P5 chance at some point either way, same as Marshall has had P5 offers, same as many other coaches have had P5 offers. He wasn't dominant at VCU, but he had a good team that was consistent in a mid major, something that Bill Self can tell you is tough to do.
Smart had his guys ready again last night, and KU was fortunate they screwed up that last play, otherwise we are sitting at 2-2 in conference.
BShark said:
Side note: Cunliffe, Anrio etc...were not good HS players. Also Cunliffe was a transfer obviously, and I'd love to get away from transfers for the most part.
Odd fact, Cunliffe and Adams both graduated from the same high school (Rainier Beach in Seattle). CJ Giles and Roderick Stewart also went to that school.
Given those names, its no surprise that Rainier Beach is a perennial state power in Washington, winning or playing for the state title just about every season.
Looking first at Adams, he led the state of Washington in scoring as a sophomore, junior and senior. He led two different schools to state titles while in high school. Averaged 21 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists per game as a senior. That's a darn good player.
Cunliffe averaged 21/9/3 as a senior, and 20/5/5 as a junior. He was the state tournament MVP as a senior when he led Rainier Beach to the title. Darn good high school player.
You don't get recruited to a P5 school (any P5 school, not just Kansas) if you were not a stud in high school. P5 bench guys were all state picks in high school.
Take Garrett Luinstra, a current walkon at KU. He went to Lawrence Free State. All he did in high school was toss in 19 points per game and set a school record for points in a season.
Chris Teahan was an all district player at Rockhurst as a junior and senior.
Those two guys were darn good HS players.
If you were an average or below high school player, you might have a chance to walk on at a D2 or NAIA school, but if you are at a P5 school, you were a stud in high school without a doubt, and likely one of the better players in your state as a senior.
I'm uneasy about this diversion. I hope that he isn't a scumbag, but I am also worried.
KU football has a lot of momentum right now. New coach. Good recruits coming in. Excitement around the program.
I hope no one bowed to the excitement and pressure and brushed something serious off as a "mistake." If he did something bad, he should be punished, even if that means he's off the team.
Now, that isn't to say that he did do something horrible. I don't have the facts. But I also know that there's a pretty long and ugly history of athletes being granted much more leeway than they should have because they were helping the team win. College football has a long history of coverups in the name of team wins (see Baylor, Colorado, Penn State, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Tennessee, USC, Michigan State, LSU, Florida, Ohio State, Maryland, Nebraska - could go on, but you get the point). I just hope that this isn't a sign that Kansas should be added to that list.
How did this TCU team lose to Lipscomb?
It's easier to play guard than inside. That has always been true. They always talk about how much a PG has on their plate (and it is quite a bit), but the position doesn't ever really change. The ball is in your hands all the time. If you played PG when you were 9 and had the skills to continue playing PG as you moved up the ranks, your job never really changed.
For big guys, that's not the case. If you're bigger or stronger than everyone else, that's enough for a long time, but you have to add ball handling, the ability to diagnose and pass out of double teams, rim protection, etc. There's new stuff being thrown at you at every level. You don't have the ball in your hands all the time, so the talent of the guards you play with can make you look a lot better (or worse) than you actually are.
It's also less likely to project advanced skills onto guards. If you're Frank Mason, you're 5-10, can handle and can score. Tough as nails. But your size means that people aren't going to be as high on you as they are on a 6-5 guy with less skill, or a 6-10 guy with even less skill. A 5-10 guy has to be very skilled to get a D1 offer. If you're over 6-8, that's not the case. Nobody looks at a 6-1 guy and recruits him as a "project." You get fired for that. That guy has to be able to play. On the other hand, you can recruit a 6-9 project. You can recruit Joel Embiid and hope he develops into Joel Embiid. You can't recruit a guard that just started playing basketball at 14 and hope he progresses. There's just not enough time.
Agbaji played really, really well last night. If he plays like that going forward, pulling the redshirt was well worth it.
He made an impact on both ends, and his hustle was contagious. In some ways, he's Marcus Garrett, but a much better shooter. He gives this KU team another weapon.
Credit to Bill Self and staff for seeing that. I was very skeptical, as my posts from yesterday made clear, but Agbaji has a chance to be a big piece on this team, and he does raise the ceiling in a significant way, but also raises the floor because he's such a well rounded player.
I guess the question to me is if Ochai Agbaji, by his addition to this team, as currently built (i.e., no Silvio, no Doke) make this team a Final Four team?
If yes, burn the redshirt and get him in the rotation.
If no, keep the redshirt and let him be a workhorse for a Final Four team down the road.
I think Agbaji is good, and can get better. I think he makes this years team marginally better. But better is relative.
Let's say you believe without Agbaji, this year's team is an 83 on a scale of 1-100. With Agbaji they move up to 84 or 85. He has, by definition, made the team "better". However, let's say that the typical team that you expect to get to the Final Four is an 88. Yes, Agbaji made this team better, but he didn't raise the level all the way to Final Four/National Champion caliber.
Now, you can say that this team, as currently built is an 85 already, and that Agbaji adds 4 points to the total, getting them to 89. In that scenario, I agree completely that its worth it. If, on the other hand, you think this team is just an 80, unless Agbaji adds 8 points to that total, it's not worth it.
Part of my argument for that is that he's already missed a significant portion of the season. KU has played 14 of their 31 expected regular season games. He's missed almost half the season. If he's not ready to play rotation minutes immediately (literally immediately, like ready to play anywhere from 12-25 minutes TONIGHT), then he will have missed basically half the season. Is half a season of Agbaji now worth sacrificing a full season later?
That's what I keep coming back to. The benefit of now versus the benefit of the long run. I think Agbaji is good and can help along the margins. I think he can handle the physical play. I think he could provide a boost offensively. I think he can be a physical defender that guards 3 positions. All of those things move the needle to make a team better. Had Agbaji been available from day one, I would have had no problem with that because I think he's ready to play D1 (presuming 100% health, which has to be assumed, otherwise this entire discussion is insane).
But if you pull Agbaji's redshirt, this had better be a Final Four team because you are making an All-In type move and that's the only way you can make it pay off. Pulling his redshirt for half a season that ends with a S16 or even E8 exit would be a waste. You're not pulling (or shouldn't be pulling) his redshirt to win the Big 12. That's a waste. Pulling his redshirt is about national championship aspirations. Approaching it any other way isn't considering the cost.
I've slept on it, and I still don't know how this really helps KU in the immediate sense.
As others have noted, Agbaji was not a top 30 recruit. He was a good player that improved drastically over the last 16 months. But with the injury, it's hard to say where he is at developmentwise. I suppose he could have improved even more from when we last got an extended look at him, but even then, it's doubtful that he turned into a top 50 talent overnight, particularly given he missed time with injury that likely slowed his development a bit.
Travis Releford seems to be a good comp for Agbaji. Obviously, we all remember veteran Releford being a big contributor as a junior and senior. However, Releford barely played as a true freshman, redshirted his second year, then barely played as a redshirt sophomore (just 10 mpg). I think we could expect that type of production from Agbaji, so maybe 4 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal in 10-12 minutes.
Is that going to change the outcome of games?
Is that worth losing a year of development for him to play roughly half a season?
Is that worth sacrificing the likely production Agbaji will provide in 2022-23 as a redshirt senior?
Now, if Agbaji provides more production than that, say, more along the lines of 6-7 points, 3 rebounds, in 15-18 minutes per game, then the calculation obviously changes because that might change the outcome of some games and raise the ceiling come March. If that's what Self sees and expects, then his decision to yank the shirt makes sense and could pay huge dividends. But if its not, then this is puzzling.
My only concern is Agbaji's long term health. Shifting one or two games this season isn't worth potentially compromising his career.
Stress fractures are weird. I would rather be cautious. I hope he is 100%
The best thing KU can do for McCormack is to not post him up. He's decent in the post, but not so good that KU should be force feeding him the ball in there.
Better to make him a PnR man. That's his role at the next level anyway, so it benefits both KU now (by avoiding having him trying to navigate the post in trying to force feed him the ball to score) and McCormack later (by helping him refine a skillset coveted at the next level). That's a win win scenario.
McBride is kind of a cross between Frank Mason and Devonte Graham. He's a better shooter coming out of HS than Frank was, though not as good as Devonte, but he's a better slasher than Devonte was coming out of HS, though not as good as Frank. Even his size and build are sort of in between those two.
truehawk93 said:
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/video/bucket-bucket-frank-mason-scores-career-high-loss-cavs ↗
Really? Hurt? Tell Frank because he doesn't seem to understand that statement.
Doesn't look too hurt to me, nor does LBJ after Mason just SCHOOLED the king.
You do realize you're talking about a guy whose CAREER HIGH is 18 points in a game. I love what Frank did at KU. He's a bulldog no doubt, and an all timer as a Jayhawk. But he is going to have a hard time being a starter in the NBA because of his size.
The NBA is all about switching on defense because there's so much PnR going on that you can't just trail around the screen, or go under the screen. As a result, you have to switch a lot. Frank can handle most PGs in the NBA. However, he can't consistently defend bigger players, and NBA offenses are designed to attack that.
NBA offenses isolate and attack mismatches. There's literally nowhere to hide a defender that is giving up a size or quickness advantage on the floor. NBA teams routinely gameplan to attack Steph Curry on defense for his size, and he's 6-3 and may be the best shooter in the game. He can stay on the floor because he can drop 40 at any time. Frank isn't on that level offensively.
This isn't a dis on Frank Mason. This is an honest assessment of where the NBA is and is going.
There are two players who have appeared in the NBA this season that are under 6 feet tall - Frank Mason and Tyler Ulis, both of whom are backups. There are 28 guys that have played this season that are under 6-2 - only 11 of those guys average even double figures in points. Most are not starters.
It is an uphill climb if you aren't at least 6-3 in the NBA.
That's part of what makes me wonder if Devon Dotson, as good as he has been this year, might still end up in Lawrence for another year or two. His size hurts him at the next level.
I thought the Elam Ending would reduce the drama, but it actually makes things even more dramatic in some ways. There's always a game winning shot with the Elam Ending because there's always a shot that gets you to the point total.
I was watching TBT this summer and one of the teams was up 3 or 4 points playing the Elam Ending. They were 3 points away from winning, and a guy hit a three in the corner to end it. With a clock, that guy never takes that shot and instead gets fouled and heads to the line. But with the Elam Ending, he takes that shot because its a potential game winner.
Not really sure where Azubuike's career goes from here, honestly.
He's not NBA ready. Nothing in his game suggests significant improvement in any of the areas he needed to improve in from last year to this year. He's also injury prone, which is a huge red flag for a guy with his size.
That suggests in my mind that Azubuike returns to Lawrence next year for his senior season.
But the injuries also create another issue. Udoka Azubuike has not improved at the rate anyone was hoping because he has missed so much time with injuries. He is still extremely raw and unrefined. There's a good chance that McCormack surpasses where Doke is at while Doke recovers from this most recent injury. There's the possibility that KU brings in another big that is more skilled. There is a possibility Doke isn't the best center on next year's team if he does return.
This injury is just a very sad overall situation for Udoka Azubuike personally. There's a decent chance he never reaches his full potential now - his shooting touch may never progress. He will have some options overseas, but I think the door to the NBA may have closed for him.
dylans said:
The hacking strategy late game needs to go. I like @kcmatt7 s approach. In the last couple minutes award a free throw and the ball tbe the team that was fouled. Maybe just reset the shot clock to 25 seconds so as not to punish the d too much. On the flip side 08 wouldn’t have happened. Hmm
One solution out there is the Elam Ending ↗
Basically, the Elam Ending turns the clock off at the under 4 timeout and sets the required final score - seven points added to the total of the team that is ahead. If the score is 72-70, the score to win is 79. First team to get to 79 wins. In blowouts, it makes it a fairly easy calculation as well. If you're up 82-58 at the under 4 timeout, winning score is 89. True, the losing team could outscore the winning team 31-6 or better, but its doubtful.
At that point, you can't intentionally foul, because those FTs move the team closer to that final score, even if they are only making one at a time. Unless you are sure a shooter is so bad that they are likely to miss both, it's too great a risk because you need stops, not just misses while the clock is not running.
They used the Elam Ending in The Basketball Tournament this summer. It seemed to work pretty well in the games I watched. The flow of the game remained unbroken because teams that were behind had to focus on not fouling, while teams that were ahead had no incentive to stall their offense since they needed to still score those seven points. Instead, teams that were ahead were still aggressively attacking the basket and looking for fast break chances (after all, a couple of layups during the Elam Ending puts the goal that much closer). And teams that were behind weren't always just desperately chucking up threes, as they had no clock to worry about if their defense was solid and they could keep scoring consistently.
Frank is hurt by his size. NBA PGs have been getting bigger (average size is now closing in on 6-3), so its tough to make it as a sub 6 footer in the league at this point. He's heading for career backup territory, so he needs to adjust his game and become effective in small bursts running the second unit. He can play the next 10 years if he does that.
For Selden, McLemore and Oubre, they have to refine being a 3 and D wing. Oubre does that well. The other two need to get that skillset down so that they can extend their careers.
None of those guys will be stars, but they can all still have long, effective careers in the NBA.
Having Wigginton back healthy makes a huge difference for ISU. They may very well be undefeated had he been available all season. They are starting to extend his minutes, but there's a question of how good his conditioning is right now since he has only played in their last two games. Him being out allowed some other guys to step up, however, so ISU may be a bit deeper as a result.
For a team like Wisconsin that runs its offense through Happ, it makes it tough because the intentional foul goes away if you foul Happ whenever he touches the ball, as @DanR suggests the officials should call. If you noticed OU the other night, they only fouled Doke when he had the ball. They did not foul him away from the ball, so you couldn't call it intentional. Last year, Kruger did the same thing, which resulted in Doke standing in the corner on offense for a stretch.
The best way to remedy that is to be able to go somewhere else for offense. As @wissox points out, that is tough for Wisconsin, but you have to effectively take the ball out of Happ's hands and have someone else that can go get you points down the stretch. It would be foolish to let Happ (or Doke) beat you inside when they likely cannot beat you from the FT line.
Every team will have to have a guy that they can run the offense through down the stretch that is a solid FT shooter at worst (65% is enough to prevent automatic fouls). Anything higher definitely takes that off the table.
Grimes has lottery pick potential. If he plays up to his talent, that changes everything about this KU team because offensively they are unguardable.
Think about it this way. Doke commands a double team when he is inside, and for the first 30 minutes of the game, you can't just automatically foul him without giving KU a huge advantage. So Doke is a MUA offensively against basically everyone except down the stretch, when he has to come out because teams can just hack away.
Dedric commands help as well because he can just kill people off the dribble, but he's also such a skilled passer than an automatic double will get picked apart. He makes KU very hard to match up against.
Dotson is so quick that he can cave a defense in off the dribble, and you can't leave him outright unguarded from three because he has shown that he will hit those.
Vick must be accounted for from three, and he has shown the ability to turn the corner effectively. You cannot leave him to help or you will get burned.
Add Grimes playing to his potential to that, and suddenly, where does help come from? You can't leave Doke or Dedric around the rim. You can't sag too far off Dotson and leaving Vick is a fool's errand with how hot he has shown he can get. The defense is stretched to its breaking point on every possession because you can't leave anyone.
Both Nagy and Pederson were QB coaches before moving up to OC. Bieniemy was RB coach before moving to OC.
All three were successful position coaches first, then became successful coordinators. Its only right that Bieniemy get his shot. I just hope he lands somewhere with a decent QB situation, or he will be fired in three years.
Their recruiting isn't yet consistent enough to handle the down years. Same thing is happening at Creighton to some degree. The programs are solid enough, but they don't have enough bench depth to sustain if they miss on a recruit or two.
Your idea is workable, but at that point, you're almost talking about two separate conferences.
Texas Hawk 10 said:
@justanotherfan I know everyone keeps ripping on Shaka, but he'll be fine until 2021 when Texas finally gets their new arena. That's when they'll care about basketball and wanting to be good.
Texas may very well finish top 3 in the conference this year
The problem is time zones. It's virtually impossible to run a conference across three time zones. Expanding the Pac-12 would require three time zones.
You can't get TV schedules right to operate the conference if a mediocre Oregon State team is playing in Lawrence on a Friday evening/night because the game either has to tip early on the west coast (8PM here is still just 6PM there) or late here (9PM) and west coast viewers won't tune in. That's unworkable for basketball. Football would have to move everything to afternoons in the midwest (because of the cold) or early evenings out west (to make sure the midwest people tune in).
There's no good expansion solution for Pac-12 that doesn't involve adding Nevada and UNLV. Just too much travel in other sports (the trip from Washington State to Austin would be brutal).
Earl Watson, former UCLA player, longtime NBA pro, originally from Kansas City, Kansas and most recently coach of the Phoenix Suns has had his name mentioned by Lonzo Ball, as well as a few others close to the UCLA program. No idea if the program insiders want him there, but he has coaching experience, program ties and was a pro player.
Agree with @Texas-Hawk-10 about Wake Forest. It's the fourth choice for any local kid (at best), and there's no clear path to being good at Wake with UNC, Duke, and Virginia all having strong programs right now. Wake is basically Wichita State, only if WSU was in the Big XII full time, and located in Dodge City instead.
This could be a quiet year for Big 12 jobs. Nobody should be in any real danger unless there is a scandal. Every program has had at least some modest success recently. Other conferences may try to poach a Big 12 coach, but I can't see any coach outright being fired right now.
A few thoughts I had last night as I watched.
I put this in the game thread, but wanted to mention it here as well. KU can't play a lineup with Doke, Garrett and Lawson all on the floor together. Garrett's man sagging off him really clogs the floor up in that lineup. Garrett has to play when either Lawson or Doke is the lone big on the floor.
KU needs to run more PnR with Doke, and less straight post ups. Doke is improving as a passer, but he isn't to the point where he can pick out open guys against the grain of the defense. I'm not saying KU should never post Doke up. Just it should be limited to a handful of times per game at most.
KU should invert its offense every now and then and post up Grimes. I've noticed the last few games that Grimes, when he gets a smaller player on him, will go to the post and call for the basketball. Because Lawson is so skilled, that's a great opportunity to invert the offense and let Lawson play on the perimeter while Grimes goes to the block. KU could force some teams out of their rotation if they were to do that more.
KU may even want to think about posting Garrett against smaller players, then letting him turn and face up guys on the extended post. It's a way to allow him to challenge the defense without needing an improved jumper.
When KJ Lawson plays, he needs to play with Dedric, and needs to play inside while Dedric plays high. His jumper has been shaky, but I think if he plays a token 5 spot and uses his quickness, he can be a MUA on the offensive glass, or force a bigger, slower player away from the basket to guard Dedric, who has been destroying guys like that on the dribble drive.
Charlie Moore should play off the ball as a shooter rather than as a PG. He's too erratic with his handling, and too prone to look for his own shot to run the point on this team. Move him off the ball so he can look for his own shot.
We need to see more PnR action overall. Grimes and Dotson should both be getting into the PnR with D. Lawson and Azubuike. We aren't see this enough and that could create some huge mismatches to exploit. We could even see some creativity with a D. Lawson/Grimes PnR with Grimes as the screener to allow Dedric to get moving against a smaller defender. You will often see Golden State run that action with Thompson and Draymond Green or Kevin Durant. It's deadly because if those guys get a half step on their bigger defender on a non switch, they get a layup. If they get a switch, they can bully a smaller guy inside. Leave Thompson and he can hit a three or drive on a late closeout. Obviously Grimes isn't the shooter Thompson is, but that action could create a lot of decisions that college defenses may not be able to execute.
Not sure Doke and Dedric can play together, and you certainly can't play them with Garrett.
There are still some rotation issues to sort out.
Gotta get Garrett out. OU isn't guarding him at all
I think we will continue to see this trend as the NBA moves towards more of a positionless game. If Self continues to focus on fairly defined roles and positions, it will make it harder to have guys jump to the NBA unless they are just otherworldly athletically. I wish KU would scrap the high low in favor of more of a pace and space game, but that isn't where we are heading. Dok should be a screen setting, rim running, lob catching machine. Instead Self continues to post him up. That's probably going to keep Dok out of the NBA again next summer, unfortunately for him.
@wissox said:
Dok would've feasted in that era.
He should be feasting in this one, too.
dylans said:
@justanotherfan to your point I think it’s a two way street, both the QB and the coach can make or break the team to a large extent.
From the coach's point of view, because the QB is so important, unless you are confident in the QB that is there, you had better be able to have input into who your QB is, or you will be getting fired.
I'm not convinced OU is that good. We will see tonight, but I wasn't that impressed with them in my brief watching of them earlier this year.
approxinfinity said:
@justanotherfan Jordan, Kobe and Mahomes are all much smarter than Andrew Wiggins. I just don't think the kid is exceptionally bright. At least he doesn't have the same sports IQ. Jordan was very creative. Kobe was a master at incorporating pieces of game into his own. Mahomes is extremely unconventional and just knows what works. Has Wiggins ever demonstrated much creativity on the court?
I've heard countless stories about Jordan, Kobe and Mahomes all studying their craft extensively, their natural athletic skills enhanced by a profound understanding of the game.
I saw a clip a couple of weeks ago of Lebron James talking to his son about the last couple of minutes of his AAU game, walking him through several possessions.
I've never heard Andrew Wiggins break down a game situation in detail in a press conference. I've never read a story about Wiggins studying video of himself or opponents to gain a tiny edge. Everything I have ever read about Andrew Wiggins improving has been him working on the physical side of things.
I don't know that Wiggins has put the emphasis on the mental side of things that other greats have. You are correct that he just doesn't show much creativity on the floor. I think that has limited the ceiling of where his athletic gifts can take him.
Every firing can be traced back to the QB situation. If you are an NFL head coach, your fate is tied to your QB. You had better get a good one, and one that you are on the same page with, otherwise you are gone.
Broncos gave Joseph terrible QBs, he gets canned. Same for Dolphins and Jets. Bucs QBs regressed, Koetter goes. McCarthy mismanages Rodgers, gets fired. Bengals finally miss the playoffs, probably resetting from the Dalton years, Lewis is gone. And Jackson held back Mayfield, gets pink slipped.
The proof is in the pudding. You had better have direct input in who your QB is, because if it doesn't work out, you will not have a job.
mayjay said:
@justanotherfan Do you think coming from a relatively comfortable background with two high-caliber athletic parents could have dulled any fiery need to succeed in Wiggins?
I have heard the argument that coming from a more comfortable upbringing dulls desire, but I don't know that I buy into that. Maybe there is a bit of a lack of desperation, but there are lots of sons of former pro athletes that have succeeded. Look at what Patrick Mahomes has done for the Chiefs.
Andrew Wiggins was blessed with uncanny physical gifts. However, he is a very quiet, reserved person in terms of personality type. He's not a Kobe Bryant or Michael Jordan in that respect (Bryant is also the son of a former pro). Wiggins' personality is the biggest difference between him and every top basketball player you can probably think of.
He was always a better athlete than the kids he grew up around, but I bet he was also always the kid that was constantly being prodded to be more aggressive since that is not really his personality.
dylans said:
I’m with @jayballer73 on this one. Garret was never projected to score more than 7ppg (at least in my mind). His offense isn’t what’s holding this team back. It’s everyone not named Dedrick or Devon that is the problem on offense. Charlie was supposed to be KUs best shooter - he’s no better than Garrett and couldn’t defend a one legged blind man. Grimes is supposed to be mr wonderful, just perfect in every way - Mr. invisible is more like it. KJ was supposed to be a wildcard do everything Swiss armyknife- he does nothing well so far. McCormack is a McDonalds AA that has great upside, but is wild as heck and out of position/ control in his limited minutes.
Garrett is exactly what we knew he would be - a roll player. The problem is the rest of the team isn’t filling their rolls, making Garrett’s offensive roll expand, to the detriment of the team.
Your point is correct. Garrett isn't supposed to be more than a role player. However, he's playing 27 mpg right now. That's too many minutes for a role player.
Garrett as a role player is excellent. He is a versatile defender that can rebound and pass. As a role player, his shooting is minimized because you can play him with other shooters to hide that. As a role player, he fits perfectly.
But he's being used as a primary player. He's closing games. That's not where he can be effective because that amplifies his shortcomings.
Now, some of that is, as you correctly point out, the fault of Grimes, KJ Lawson, Moore and others for not stepping forward. Some of that is the circumstance with Doke being injured.
But you should never over-extend a role player because there is a greater chance that teams start gameplanning to their weaknesses than that they cover those weaknesses. We saw that with Lucas. We saw it with Traylor. We saw it with Morningstar.
Marcus Garrett should go down as a universally loved Jayhawk with a Swiss Army Knife of skills. But if he is put in a position to be a primary player, we will remember his deficiencies more.
Ultimately, this discussion should be about Quentin Grimes underperforming. He has the talent to be an NBA lottery pick. He should have to live up to that. Marcus Garrett is a role player. He shouldn't be burdened with having to fill Quentin Grimes' potential.
With the way that the college football playoff is set up, if KU were to challenge for and win the Big 12, they would have a shot at the national title. Being in a P5 conference means that winning the conference could get them into the playoff with a chance to win the whole thing.
Quick comparison to a different sport to make a point about Marcus Garrett.
Last year, Alcides Escobar was a bad hitter by basically any statistical measure you chose. He had a below average batting average, on base percentage, OPS, OPS+, etc. Literally any offensive stat you chose, Escobar was well below average.
There are those that argued that Escobar's defense could make up for his poor batting, but the problem was, Escobar was so bad offensively that he would have needed to create, over the course of the season, about 100 extra outs to justify playing him every day. Basically, he would have had to turn almost every ball hit in his area into an out just to be a break even player. It was basically impossible for him to be a break even player because his offensive numbers were just too bad.
Garrett is in that same range right now, not because his defense isn't good (it is) or because he doesn't bring other things to the table (he does), but because his shooting is so bad. He cannot shoot jump shots right now. Those are basically turnovers. In order to make up for his poor shooting, Garrett would have to never turn the ball over, hold his man to poor shooting, get 3-4 steals per game and average over 5 rebounds per game. He would have to do all of that just to be a break even level player. Garrett would basically need to turn the other team's best perimeter offensive player into a version of himself with his defense, plus chip in with intangibles because the opposition doesn't have to respect him from the perimeter.
That's a lot of pressure on the rest of his game.
Offensively, Garrett creates a "gravity" problem. On the perimeter, Marcus Garrett does not create any sort of gravity. Defenders can go under screens and sag well off him because he's not a threat to score from outside. That means that if he is on the floor with Doke and Dedric, there will be no space in the paint because there will be two big guys and three defenders in or around the lane.
I looked up Garrett's offensive numbers to be sure the eye test wasn't fooling me. They are truly offensive.
Freshman year - 62/136 from the field (45%), 12/45 from three (26%), 25/51 from FT (49%), 44 assists to 30 turnovers (1.47 to 1 ratio). There is nothing in that offensive profile from last year that spells danger for an opponent.
Sophomore year - 18/56 from the field (32%), 4/18 from three (22%), 21/32 from FT (66%), 25 assists to 7 turnovers (3.57 to 1 ration). Garrett is basically only dangerous if he is passing the ball. His FG and 3pt shooting are all but unplayable. Not just limited minutes. We are talking outright cannot get on the court levels. And that FT% was aided by a 7-8 night against Arizona State. Prior to that, he was 14/24 (58%).
It isn't enough to say that Marcus Garrett is a limited offensive player. He's worse than that. He's very nearly a net negative on the offensive end because of his poor shooting. Not a break even. A net negative. He's only grabbing about 4 rebounds per game. He'd need to be closer to six to balance out the fact that he's a non threat on offense.
That's the profile of a player that plays 17 mpg, not 27. We have gone through this so many times in the Self era that we know the names by heart - Morningstar... Traylor... Lucas... the list of "role" players over played and over exposed because they were "mistake free".
If this isn't corrected, KU's season will end with Marcus Garrett going 2-9 from the field, including 0-4 from three with 2 assists and 1 turnover to go along with 5 rebounds in 29 minutes of a Sweet Sixteen loss. You can bookmark this comment and laugh and point at me later if I am wrong, but that is my fear.
Garrett is a poor shooter. While I am sure he worked hard on it over the summer, there are flaws. I don't expect that he will ever be a great, or even good shooter. But he is the 2018 Chiefs defense - he's a day trip away from mediocre. He does other things well (some even extremely well), but his offensive limits make him strictly a role player.
He either has to crash the glass offensively to create extra possessions, or he has to create so much offense for others (basically become Doug Gottlieb). The only problem is that Gottlieb even may have been a superior shooter to Garrett, and was almost certainly a superior passer. I just don't see a clear path to improvement for Garrett that doesn't involve him becoming a much better shooter, and that isn't happening overnight.
That's why we need Grimes, KJ Lawson, Moore and others to step forward. Garrett is simply too limited offensively to shoulder as many minutes as he currently is being asked to. It's Jamari Traylor all over again. Great for 15 minutes. Not great for 25.
Merry Christmas everyone!
KU should win this one easily. This is a "get right" game. The goal should be to get guys some confidence before conference play starts.
Let Doke get a few minutes to test the ankle out.
Let guys like KJ and Mitch get some run to find their rhythm.
Play Grimes 25+ minutes to get him some more confidence in his skills.
Let Moore get some shots up to find his range.
The final score isn't success on Saturday. The things listed above are.
kjayhawks said:
@FarmerJayhawk I was able to speak to one of my inside sources to KU this week with the holiday. He told me Jax was offered to be a preferred walk-on and was not happy. I was told the Dineens dad was escorted out of the football complex after a heated exchange with Les Miles.
Interesting.
I understand that the Dineen's are a legacy at KU and there's no doubt they have been good players and ambassadors for KU. That said, it's not clear KU is going to use a FB heavily in their offense (Jax position). If Jax were going to move to LB, I could see that, but his best position is FB. That makes KU a difficult fit for him.
It's unfortunate that KU and the Dineen's couldn't work this out, but with only 15 scholarships this season, they all count.
The matchup between Cheathem and D. Lawson should be interesting. This could be a game where we need something from Grimes because I don't think we beat ASU with just Vick and Lawson scoring. Either that, or we need a strong game from Dotson.
Prior to Miles being hired, KU had ONE commitment for 2019. KU was on track to have its worst recruiting class no matter who was hired. Miles did an exceptional job to salvage the signings he did, and he didn't just get filler, he got some quality athletes.
Several players have re-opened their recruitment now and Miles has until February to convince a few of those guys that Lawrence is the place they want to be.
I would not be surprised to see Miles secure a 4 star signing this recruiting period, and would fully expect him to nab more than one five star for 2020. He's playing catch up right now, but with a full year, I think KU lands a top 40 class for 2020. After that, look out.
mayjay said:
@justanotherfan I appreciate both your experience and your knowledge, but how are you so sure it is a problem of trying to avoid mistakes? It seems equally likely to me that he is perhaps not trying hard enough to avoid mistakes. He has been as likely to drive with nowhere to go as he has been to be too tentative, and some of his shots--feet not set, not squared to the basket--do not show signs of being cautious. Likewise, a few passes to places where his teammates are not.
I've spent most of the last two games watching Grimes exclusively when he has been on the floor. He's incredibly indecisive with everything. He seems to decide to do one thing, then change his mind halfway into the move.
He will drive to nowhere rather than looking to attack his man off the dribble. If he confronts even the slightest defensive resistance, he will either dribble back out or pick up his dribble.
He will sometimes shoot as an afterthought. There have been moments where he has been looking to pass and then shot as sort of a last resort.
He needs to simplify the game for himself right now by doing two things.
Make it his goal to play harder than everyone else on defense. Completely lock in on that end. If that produces some transition opportunities, all the better.
Hit the offensive glass. Grimes hasn't had more than 4 rebounds in any game this season. With his athleticism, that should not be the case. He needs to look to crash the offensive boards more.
Those are both "effort" things rather than skill things. Sometimes, when the skill stuff isn't happening, you can get thrown off, but effort doesn't get into slumps.
jayballer73 said:
I think we are going to like Locklin down the road - -a real dual threat -he was right about 2500 yards passing -- 2500 yard rush both just a hair under 2500 - -like 32 TD's looks like be a nice 4 YEAR player for us - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
He's a year out of HS, but he still has 4 years of eligibility. With MacVittie already here, could he be a candidate for a redshirt if he doesn't win the QB battle out of spring practice?