@jayballer54

A result of players leaving early for the pros is that the best players in college are typically not juniors and seniors.

For example, let's glance back at Perry Ellis' high school class to see who is still in college:

1. Nerlens Noel - NBA
2. Shabazz Muhammed - NBA
3. Isaiah Austin - health issues (retired)
4. Kaleb Tarczewski - Arizona
5. Kyle Anderson - NBA
6. Steven Adams - NBA
7. Anthony Bennett - NBA
8. Cameron Ridley - Texas
9. Grant Jerrett - D-League
10. Marcus Smart - NBA

That's the top 10, and only 2 are still in college.

1. Gary Harris - NBA
2. Rasheed Sulaimon - Maryland
3. Alex Poythress - Kentucky
4. Dajuan Coleman - Syracuse
5. Archie Goodwin - NBA
6. Brandon Ashley - Arizona
7. Sam Dekker - NBA
8. Glenn Robinson - NBA
9. Danuel House - Texas A&M
10. Rodney Purvis - UConn

Six of these guys stuck around. So that's 8 of the top 20.

1. Ricardo Ledo - D-League
2. Marcus Paige - North Carolina
3. Kris Dunn - Providence
4. Yogi Ferrell - Indiana
5. Amile Jefferson - Duke
6. Tony Parker - UCLA
7. Mitch McGary - NBA
8. Devonta Pollard - Houston
9. TJ Warren - NBA
10. Shaquille Cleare - Maryland

Seven more. That's 15.

1. Shaq Goodwin - Memphis
2. Omar Calhoun - UConn
3. Robert Carter - Maryland
4. Brice Johnson - North Carolina
5. Perry Ellis - Kansas
6. Rico Gaithers - Baylor
7. Jerami Grant - NBA
8. Josh Scott - Colorado
9. Adam Woodbury - Iowa
10. Willie Cauley-Stein - NBA

Out of the 40 best players from Perry's class, 17 have left college, including 12 of the top 20 and 8 of the best 10. Of the remaining 23, Tarczewski, Ridley, Poythress, Ashley, Paige, Jefferson and Johnson have all battled injuries either this year or throughout their careers. Of the other 16, House, Purvis, Sulaimon, Pollard and Carter have all transferred for one reason or another.

Simply put, often the freshmen expect to play because they are flat out better than the upperclassmen that remain.

@benshawks08

Let's back up a minute and compare the two out of HS.

Russell Robinson was the #27 overall recruit (#7 PG).

Jamari Traylor was the #141 overall recruit (#27 PF).

Russell Robinson was a decidedly better HS player than Jamari Traylor.

Yes, Sherron was better than RussRob, but Sherron was a McD's AA and a potential NBA player. RussRob was a step below that. Jamari is about two steps below that level. There's a pretty healthy gap between RussRob and Jamari in overall talent, even considering the difference in positions.

RussRob was a very solid starting level player at KU. Traylor is, at best, a backup. Also, note that Self played Sherron almost as much as RussRob. As a freshman, Sherron played 22 minutes a game to Russell's 28. As a sophomore, Sherron played 24 minutes a game to Russell's 27. They were both good players and both netted starter level minutes.

We have a completely different situation here.

@drgnslayr

This is why Diallo and Bragg should have been playing a month ago. You don't want your first exposure to constant ball screen actions being against a team like Kentucky with an NBA caliber guard like Murray. You want to work out the kinks against lesser teams so that when Kentucky runs that action over and over (and Calipari almost certainly will) your guys are ready to handle it.

@benshawks08

You are making the Morningstar argument here. Play him because he is less likely to make mistakes. Look at how much Selby and Johnson make mistakes. They will hurt us if they play more. Oops, VCU isn't guarding Morningstar at all (same thing OU did with Lucas... hmm) and Morningstar can't make shots. Oh no, the twins are getting double and triple teamed. Turnovers are mounting. We are falling further behind. Get Brady out of the game! Nope, 32 minutes in the loss. Season over. National championship level talent wasted.

@drgnslayr

I don't think Calipari will just toss it into the post because that is not his team's strength. But when Lucas is in the game, his man will be screening for Ulis and Murray on just about every possession because Lucas isn't quick enough to come out 20+ feet from the basket and guard, and both Ulis and Murray have no problem pulling up from three if the big man sits back. If they are hitting those shots, we could be in trouble.

Calipari is very good at making your worst players do things they cannot do. His team is struggling right now, but they almost always pull it together in March because if you play lesser talent, they can punish you, unless you have NBA level players to pick up the slack. But that puts a lot of pressure on Wayne if you aren't playing the other NBA potential guys (Bragg, Diallo, Greene, Svi).

Also, the best American players are often subject to some pretty intense bidding. Most foreign teams have a limit on the number of American players they can have, so a very good US player (a Keith Langford type) is extremely valuable. Changing teams could mean a very nice raise.

The problem with the C5 is that at some point you guess wrong.

At some point by not playing the most talented players the most minutes, you play a lesser player and that player does not play well, they play too long, and you end up in a hole that you cannot escape from.

There will be a game, whether its next week, or next month, or during the tournament, where Lucas simply cannot handle the other team's big man in the post because he's too quick and too skilled. On that day, will Self pull him after three minutes, or, given that Lucas has been getting 13 or so minutes per game, will Self play him for 8 or 9 minutes before the fact that he is overmatched becomes blatantly apparent?

Let's all remember that last season ended with Lucas and Traylor combining for the following line: 39 minutes, 3-7 from the field, 6 points, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 turnover. Some will focus only on that rebound number, which is very good. I look at everything else, but even more than that, I look at the fact that KU basically was dependent on its other four guys to generate offense. It has been well documented by @HighEliteMajor and @BeddieKU23 that KU is better on both ends when Lucas and Traylor sit.

We have been down this road before folks. We walked this road with Brady Morningstar and debated ad nauseam whether Morningstar should play ahead of more talented players because of his absence of mistakes. When it came down to it, what happened? Morningstar's career ended with a great team falling in the Elite Eight to a upstart VCU team with Morningstar playing 32 minutes and finishing with 2 points on 1-7 shooting, including 0-3 from three. What I remember most about that game is VCU sending help on the Morris twins from Morningstar's man literally the entire game. They dared Morningstar to beat them and guess what, he was not good enough to do so.

This is where we are going, folks. This team is very good. Final Four good. National title good. But if we insist on Lucas and Traylor, our season will end with Lucas or Traylor being dared to beat some team and they will fall short. In March, you have to make plays to win. Lucas cannot make plays. Traylor cannot make plays. But Bragg can. Cheick can. Mickelson can.

Watch very carefully how Calipari handles this in a couple of weeks. Calipari coaches matchups better than just about every college coach. I guarantee he will attack Lucas and Traylor when they are in the game. He will put them in pick and roll. He will abandon them on defense. He will make them make decisions on offense. He will force the ball into their hands. The game is at AFH so Kentucky likely won't beat us, but Calipari will show everyone how to beat us, especially away from AFH, where we get a six or seven point boost.

Playing C5 requires perfection, in a way.

In order to get the maximum amount of production from C5, Coach Self must play each member of C5 an optimal number of minutes to get the positives while not playing them so much that they make negative plays.

The problem is, Bill Self cannot see the future. There is no way to know who is going to play well that night and whether that missed jump shot is the sign of a bad night or if it's the only miss in a 5-6 night from the field.

Because you don't know that, you have to default to the best players because it is more likely that, over the long term, the best players will make the most net positive plays.

There was an old saying I heard years ago - winning in November is about not making mistakes. Winning in March is about making plays. We need to have our playmakers - Ellis, along with Bragg and Cheick, with Mickelson contributing - in March, even if they might make a few mistakes.

I put WVU down at 5 for a simple reason - schedule. If WVU was not 3-0 right now, how would you feel about them? If they had a loss to K-State, or TCU on the road, or at home against OSU, they would be down quite a ways.

Put another way, if KU, ISU, OU, or Baylor had that schedule, what would you expect their record to be? 3-0. Heck, if Texas Tech had gotten that schedule, they might be 3-0 right now. I have Iowa State in front of WVU right now because I think their starters are better, but WVU could move in front based on what happens this week.

I thought about putting Texas and OSU at the bottom, as @JayHawkFanToo suggested, but I can't ignore the fact that KSU is winless and that KSU hasn't played a very tough schedule yet. Like I said above, if K-State loses to Tech, their next five conference games are ISU, @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, @ West Virginia, @ Kansas. A loss to Tech basically makes them 1-8 or 0-9 halfway through the conference schedule. That would pretty much bury them. They have a must win game tomorrow because there is really no good path to recovery if they lose to Tech at home. That's why I put them down.

Texas has a tough slate ahead as well, but they haven't lost at home yet, so they could still find some wins in Austin to move them up, same with OSU, who hasn't lost at Gallagher Iba.

@wrwlumpy

Injuries change everything. I had considered Arizona a contender, but the injuries have really dropped them to me. Their ceiling just lowered quite a bit.

So I will try to do this every couple of weeks. The current standings first, with wins in parentheses:

1. Kansas 3-0 (Baylor, Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech)
2. West Virginia 3-0 (@ Kansas State, @ TCU, Oklahoma State)
3. Oklahoma 2-1 (Iowa State, Kansas State)
4. Baylor 2-1 (Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State)
5. Iowa State 1-2 (Texas Tech)
6. Texas Tech 1-2 (Texas)
7. TCU 1-2 (Texas)
8. Oklahoma State 1-2 (TCU)
9. Texas 1-2 (Kansas State)
10. Kansas State 0-3

The predicted standings take who you have played (and where) into consideration. The conference is pretty clearly split into two halves - the top being KU, WVU, OU, ISU and Baylor. If you have hopes of moving up, you need to beat those teams when they come to your place. At the same time, you can also pick up wins by winning road games against the bottom half (Texas, KSU, Tech, TCU and OSU). For example, Iowa State is 5th right now, but they have not played TCU, K-State, Texas or Oklahoma State yet, so they have a chance to pick up quite a few wins. They also still get OU at Hilton. That weighs heavily in their favor. The home loss to Baylor hurts, but they have two top half games out of the way. On the other hand Texas already has losses to both TCU and Texas Tech. They haven't seen OU, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia or Kansas. On top of that, Ridley is done for the year. It's not looking good for the Horns this season.

1. Kansas - the win against OU factors in heavily. They still have all of their tough road games left, starting tomorrow at WVU, but that Oklahoma win is huge right now.
2. Oklahoma - Almost won at AFH. Own a home win against Iowa State. They do need to get a road win to solidify this spot, but I am weighing the loss in Lawrence pretty heavily, plus their talent level.
3. Baylor - only loss is in Lawrence. Already went to Ames and got a W (only Big 12 team to win in Ames the last two years). They own the best road win in the conference right now.
4. Iowa State - The loss to OU doesn't hurt because it was in Norman. The home loss to Baylor does hurt. Need a big road win (Waco, Lawrence or Morgantown) to offset that loss
5. West Virginia - 3-0, and with a couple of road wins, but have yet to play anyone in the top half of the conference. They can jump way up if they knock off Kansas tomorrow, though they will still lack a major road win.
6. Texas Tech - They have one KU game and one Iowa State game already out of the way, so they can make up ground if they protect their home floor against the middle of the conference. Unfortunately, they only have three remaining chances to win a home game against the top half.
7. Oklahoma State - Injuries are going to hurt them (the only reason I have them behind Tech), but they own a win over TCU and have already played WVU and Baylor on the road. If they can steal one from either of those teams at Gallagher Iba, they could move up to six.
8. TCU - They have a home loss to WVU, which means they can't hope to pick up a home win against one team in the top half of the conference. That pushes them down unless they can pull an upset in one of their remaining 4 chances.
9. Texas - The situation isn't good this year for the Horns. Too banged up. They haven't dropped a home game yet, so they may move up quite a bit if they go on the road and beat a bottom half team. Unfortunately, they already dropped road games against the bottom half, so they have a ways to go.
10. Kansas State - The other team in trouble here. They already dropped a top half home game (WVU), and lost on the road to a bottom half team (Texas). They haven't played KU, Iowa State, Baylor yet. I don't know where they are finding wins to get out of the cellar. If they don't beat Tech tomorrow, it could get very dark in Manhattan.

@chriz

I think the only reason Landon got called for the over the back is because Lattin fell down and Landon was right in front of the rim. If they let that go, Landon gets an uncontested layup with two seconds to go for the game winner after he went over the back. Landon gained too great an advantage, so they had to call it.

As for Frank, I think he gets a fair amount of calls. He goes to the line about 4 times a game, which is second on the team behind Perry. That's a decent amount for a guard that drives to the basket.

There were some calls missed in this last game, but overall, I think Frank has been officiated pretty fairly.

@Bwag

I can't take too much credit for the concept. I read about it while reading an article on Kyle Korver and how he opens up the offense for his teammates simply because he cannot be left alone. Basically, the article identified Korver as a near elite offensive player because, even though he isn't a high scorer or elite passer, his presence on the floor means you either cannot help with his man or you give up three points. He basically assists without touching the ball by screwing up defensive rotations because you just can't leave him under any circumstance.

Korver pretty much removes a link in the defensive chain because his guy can't rotate. That allows his other teammates to penetrate with one less defender to account for, or work in the post without the threat that Korver's guy will help.

This is why I want to see Brannen Greene get more PT. Greene is a college Korver. As of right now, Greene is 15-24 from three. Anybody that has spent more than 30 seconds around basketball in their life knows that is insane. Greene stretches the floor in ways that defenses just aren't comfortable with. I think his volume of good shots will remain consistent because most college teams won't change their rotations to account for a non-star player, even though Greene getting 3 or 4 open looks at threes could absolutely alter any game. But Greene's gravity is valuable.

Similarly, Bragg and Mickelson are both very capable out to 17 feet. That opens things up for Perry inside. KU has the chance to be an elite offensive team this year, with a solid defense. You can win a national title if you are elite on one end and solid on the other. KU doesn't have an elite level defense this year. They lack the shot blocking to have that type of team. They can be very solid, but not elite. But they have all the pieces to be elite offensively if they put the right 5 man units on the floor. They scored efficiently against a good OU defense even playing 4 on 5 for many possessions. Just imagine what they could have done with a 5th guy.

There was a play that was easy to overlook in the game that summarized gravity. Perry got the ball into the middle of the paint and drew the defense. He dumped it to Carlton on the right block and Carlton went up and scored in one motion. It was almost exactly the same as the play in the 2nd OT where Landon got fouled after catching a pass from Perry. The difference was that Carlton was able to catch and finish in one motion because he was unguarded, while Landon had to catch, take a dribble and then go up, allowing the D to recover. Now imagine that play where the defense has a big shot blocker inside. Carlton still scores. Landon get his shot blocked (no foul). We lose two points. Maybe that's a possession we can't afford to lose down the road.

@globaljaybird

I appreciate the kind words. I always try to show respect on here because we are all fans - no point in pulling this community into the gutter like so many other message boards. I post here so frequently because of the respect that is shown by so many posters on here.

I agree that Lattin isn't a huge offensive threat. However, the big difference between Lattin and Lucas is that Lattin is more athletic/ eIxplosive. Twice in OT Lattin caught the ball and in one motion made a move to the basket to get a layup off a pass. Lucas always has to catch and gather. He cannot catch and finish. That's why he has no gravity. The catch and gather process gives time to recover for the defense.

I don't want it to sound like I don't like either Lucas or Traylor, as hard as I am on both on this board. They are both better players than I ever was, and both have shown incredible dedication and hard work to get to where they are now. They are both great stories and I look forward to what they will do as ambassadors for the program after graduation. I just see their on court limitations, too.

And the title defense can officially begin.

The key to winning the conference is actually pretty simple.

Hold serve at home. You have to do this. You can't give away home games. That's why Monday was so huge for KU. They couldn't lose at home to OU with the trip to Norman still on the slate.

Win on the road against the bottom 3 - this year likely Tech, TCU and KSU.

Win at least two of the remaining road games. Win three and you probably win the league by yourself at 15-3. Win two and you're 14-4 and may share the title.

Any home loss has to be made up against the top of the conference on the road. That's not the easiest path to a title.

@wrwlumpy

There's a concept in basketball called gravity. It is basically an offensive player's pull to keep defenders close to them. Brannen Greene has gravity because he's an incredible shooter. He spaces the floor because if he is outside the three point line and there are no defenders around, you might as well just put the points on the board and run to the other end.

Landen Lucas has no gravity. We saw on Monday against OU that they did not guard him. Lon Kruger actively strategized to leave Lucas open, even near the basket, recovering to him only when he had the ball. That meant that Lucas' man (Lattin for most of that time) was standing in the middle of the lane, clogging it for any drives. After Spangler picked up his fourth foul and Lattin (OU's top shot blocker) had to switch to Perry, a player with some gravity, KU's possessions went as follows:

1. 1-2 FT from Devonte Graham on penetration
2. 2-2 FT from Perry Ellis inside
3. 2-2 FT from Graham on penetration
4. Missed jumper from Mason
5. Layup from Selden
6. Missed jumper from Mason

After that was the turnovers and FTs that ultimately ended the game. After Lattin had to move from the middle of the lane, KU got 7 points in 6 possessions, and the only time they didn't score was when they didn't get into the lane.

Lucas, and to a similar extent, Traylor, simply do not have gravity. They may set good screens and get rebounds, etc., but they do not pose enough offensive threat to merit being guarded. I could not believe that OU didn't guard Lucas even when he was underneath the basket!

Diallo and Bragg and Mickelson can do those same little things, but they can also do big things like make jump shots that force defensive guys to do something other than camp in the lane and block shots.

@globaljaybird

Slowing the game down will never keep the ball out of the hands of good guards. They handle the ball anyway, so they will have the ball by default. Self slowed the game down because he still fears the shootouts, even though this team is designed to win shootouts. This team is decidedly not designed to win a slugfest. We don't have enough good power players to win that type of game.

We have gotten burned the last couple years by Iowa State because Self tried to force a muscle game rather than playing up and down. Lucas and Traylor are good as a change of pace, but the bulk of the minutes should go to the big guys that can play the style that favors our best four players (Mason, Ellis, Selden and now Devonte Graham). Everything should be built around playing through those four guys. That means getting up and down, spreading the floor, etc.

@BeddieKU23

I was terrified when I saw the ball going to Hield on that last play. He was the one guy I didn't want to get anywhere near the ball. Thankfully, he missed.

@brooksmd

The Mari goaltend sticking his hand through the net was with 12:42 left in the first half. Hield backcut Svi and caught a lob. Svi fouled him as he went back up. The basket was waved off, but should have counted on the goaltend and would have resulted in a three point play as Hield made the first FT, but missed the second. OU would have gotten 3 on the possession, but only got 1.

@RockkChalkk

We see the same thing and it gives me a headache. Lucas is especially problematic, because he doesn't roll fast enough to create panic (think young Dwight Howard, or Tyson Chandler). Those guys weren't shooters, either, but they were so quick that when they rolled to the bucket, you had to go with them or get dunked on. Lucas doesn't present that threat, so he is ignored.

This game is why we needed to have Cheick and Carlton developing in December rather than spreading the minutes evenly. Last night, we likely could have won in regulation if we had been able to get more production inside other than Ellis.

@RockChalkinTexas

Exhibit C was called a foul if that was Frank on the break in the first half. I actually think Frank may have slipped first, but it was pretty close.

Lucas and Traylor nearly cost us that game, or more accurately, Self's insistence on utilizing Lucas and Traylor so much nearly cost us that game.

It's not that they are bad players. Both can be effective in the right situation, and with the right usage. However, they were both over used last night and over exposed. As I said elsewhere, Traylor had two goaltending plays last night that were not called. I love his energy, but when the officials review that, they will see those missed calls and Traylor will likely be called for goaltending at some point later this season on a close play. He will not get the benefit of the doubt anymore because he had two last night (reaching through the net to tip away one shot, and blocking another after it had already hit the glass) on plays that could have been three point plays.

Lucas is best suited for slower games. Up and down pace is not his forte. He especially does not match up well with OU's bigs because Lattin is too quick for him and Spangler lingers on the perimeter too much. Had Spangler not picked up his fourth foul, KU probably loses that game because, up to that point, Lattin was playing centerfield, basically standing in the middle of the lane to deter all comers. He wasn't even guarding Lucas!!! That's why Lattin ended up with six blocks. He was basically playing goalie until he had to switch to Ellis to keep Spangler in the game. That changed everything because it freed Ellis up from having to deal with the weakside shot blocker.

There was a play that is particularly telling for me. Ellis made a perfect dump off pass to Lucas under the basket. However, because Lucas doesn't have great hands and isn't explosive, he had to take a dribble, so instead of scoring an easy bucket (and getting an And one) Lucas goes to the line for two FTs.

I have been curious to see how Self would handle his rotation in a tight game. We found out last night. Look at the lines posted by Selden, Mason, Graham and Ellis, then ask yourself if we can get that level of production from that group to make up for what we aren't getting from the 5 slot against the best teams in the country. We need either Diallo or Bragg. Why spend all that time and effort to get Diallo cleared if he's just going to sit and watch in a huge game?

@RockkChalkk

Refs were bad last night in regulation, but they were bad both ways. Jamari had two goaltends on potential and-one plays that were not called. One of them was particularly bad as he reached through the bottom of the net to knock the ball away. There were calls that went against KU (Mason strip the worst of that group), but OU has a decent gripe on more than a few calls as well.

I did like that in the OT's the officials got out of the way and let the game happen. The action really picked up once that happened.

This post isn't about analysis. This post is about enjoying a basketball game for being great. This will be long, so feel free to skip it if you don't have that kind of time.

My perception of several guys was altered last night watching that game. Credit has to go to every single guy for playing their butts off last night, on both teams. The action wasn't always perfect, but guys played extremely hard on both ends.

Both Kruger and Self squeezed every ounce of effort out of their guys. Both drew up some brilliant plays and made some questionable decisions, but they got everything out of their players.

Pack up the Big XII POY trophy and send it to Norman. Deliver it to a Mr. Hield. I went from thinking Hield was a fringe NBA prospect to being sold on him as a first rounder. Dropping 46 in AFH and playing 54 of 55 minutes, basically not letting your team die until exhaustion compromised his talents in the 54th minute of action (after playing all 40 in a wild game against ISU on Saturday). Hield was the best player on the floor. I wanted to shake his hand last night. As Vitale said last night, it wasn't just that Hield made plays and dropped 46, it was that every single play he made was during a crucial moment. Every play was a must play. And he wasn't just scoring. He had crucial assists, grabbed some big rebounds and played some tough D. Just incredible in every aspect.

Perry Ellis played his best game as a Jayhawk. Not best because he has never played better. He has. Best because that was the type of game that you need to play if you're going to be a top player on a top team. He battled in a way that I had never seen him battle. He had his problems against Lattin (I will get to him in a second), but Perry just kept plugging away and made some HUGE plays down the stretch.

Isaiah Cousins has some stones. He was awful Saturday against Iowa State, until he wasn't and keyed the win down the stretch. He struggled again last night, but then still hit a couple big buckets. He's slumping right now, but once he gets going again, this OU team will be even more dangerous.

Frank Mason changed how I feel about him as a defensive player. I have no idea how many points he scored, or how many assists, or anything like that. I watched him get into Buddy Hield's space last night and take on the challenge of defending a top notch player that was red hot (and stayed hot). But Frank stayed right in Hield's space, and ended up making the two biggest plays of the night to seal the win. I said Frank was an average defender at the beginning of the season. I stand corrected. Frank is above average, maybe well above average. I can't even describe how impressed I was with his performance on that end.

Kadeem Lattin was big time last night. He kept that game alive with his presence in the middle. He and Spangler are basically OU's only useful bigs, and I think they both had double doubles last night. Spangler showed me more shooting than I knew he had. I was afraid he was going to be our undoing. The single biggest moment last night may have been when he left the game briefly due to injury. He wasn't the same when he came back in. Those two are irreplaceable for the Sooners.

Devonte Graham has some Mario Chalmers in him. He wants to be the guy that has to make plays. I hadn't really gotten to see that attitude until last night, but he wants to be in the BIG moments. It's clear that Self realized that before I did and that Graham will be on the floor at the end of every close game from now until he graduates. He was relentless last night.

I didn't even really think Jordan Woodard was that good until last night. He was, to me, the third of the three guards. I was so completely wrong. Woodard was in on everything. He handled the ball. He hit six threes, and I think four of them were on enormous, game altering possessions. Like Hield, he made several must plays. So very impressed.

And finally, Wayne Selden, who has morphed from a running disappointment into a legitimate NBA level performer. Wayne Selden is different. Last year, in the type of game he was having, Selden would have finished with five points on 2-6 shooting with 3 fouls in 26 minutes of a KU loss. The foul trouble would have robbed him of his aggressiveness and he would have just disappeared. Last night, Selden saw Hield going absolutely bonkers and rose to that level. No, he didn't drop 46, too, but there were moments where Selden saw Hield making plays and went and made a play, too. That's what the greats do. Hield and Selden raised each other's level of play last night, and it was a joy to watch.

That was some great basketball. We will do this again in Norman in a little over 5 weeks.

KU wins because this game is in Lawrence.

Not a lot of analysis necessary.

@Lulufulu

Any team that can get physical inside and bully KU in the paint is a potential threat. From the top contenders, that really only describes Maryland with Diamond Stone and maybe UNC. Michigan State can get physical overall, which could take KU out of its game.

But the real threat to KU remains itself. If this team plays the appropriate uptempo, perimeter oriented style, we will see games like Saturday.

But if this team tries to grind it out, something they aren't really designed to do, they could really get into trouble. The benefit that KU has is that every team in the Big 12 either flat out isn't good enough, or needs to play uptempo to succeed. OU and Iowa State played a very interesting game on Saturday night, but it was interesting to see that the game was decided on the perimeter even though several inside players (Niang, Spangler in particular) had nice games. The path to the Big 12 title is on the perimeter. I just hope we stick with that plan.

@Bosthawk

Here's the thing. KU isn't going to lose to UC Irvine or Holy Cross or some of the other teams we have faced so far this season. That's why you notice that most of the top freshmen are averaging close to 20 minutes per game. They played lots of minutes because whether you beat Irvine by 15 or 8 is irrelevant come March.

But whether your guy is Landen Lucas or Carlton Bragg makes a huge difference come March.

@pa_grape

If your Jordans are giving you problems, you should switch brands. Nike and Jordan shoes are cut the same, so I would recommend some basic Adidas to take the pressure off your ankles

Let's take a timeout on the whole "winning the tournament is a crapshoot" thing and really think about it.

If winning the tournament was really a crapshoot, then statistically, the champions would be spread pretty evenly. If you take into account that lower seeds aren't as good, the champions should be distributed pretty evenly among the top 4 seeds. That is not what we find.

Since 1979 (first year of seeding, so 37 total years of seeding), the champions breakdown is this:

1 - 21 titles

2 - 6 titles

3 - 5 titles

4 - 1 title

6 - 2 titles

7- 1 title

8 - 1 title

1 seeds win the title more than half the time. That's not a crapshoot, folks. That means one of the four best teams wins the title, generally speaking. Taking it a step further, the one and two seeds account for 27 of the 37 titles. That's 73% of the titles going to one of the eight highest seeded teams.

If you want to know who the champion will be, figure out who the best eight teams in the country are, and work from there.

Once you are in that group, yes, things get a little more interesting, but you have to be in that group in order for it to even make a difference. Since 1990, there has been exactly one champion that was not seeded among the top 4 (UConn, 2014). In fact, since 1990, every champion has been either a 1 or 2 seed except Arizona (4, 1997), Syracuse (3, 2003), Florida (3, 2006) and UConn twice (3 in 2011 and 7 in 2014). That's 26 champions, and just 5 weren't a top 2 seed. In fact, since 1990, there have been more than twice as many title games featuring teams that were both top 2 seeds than champions outside the top 2 seeds (1993, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2015).

Talent matters in college basketball, and it matters a ton. Every so often, the stronger teams will falter and a random Arizona or UConn will make a run, but generally, if you take out your bracket at the beginning of March and sprinkle the Final Four with #1 and #2 seeds, you will do okay. Since 1990, it's more likely that 3 of the 4 teams were top 2 seeds, than not. Only 11 times (1990, 1992, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014) were 2 or more of the Final Four not 1's or 2's.

@wrwlumpy

I wasn't nearly as sad that Roy left as most. I firmly believe that he never would have won a championship at KU because he never would commit to competing directly with UNC for recruits. That refusal to go toe to toe with UNC handicapped KU in a way that probably would have prevented us from ever winning a title under Roy.

@jaybate-1.0

It is critical that we land a big time PG. The problem is that Self wants his PG's to fulfill a certain role, rather than letting them do their thing - remember his clashes with Tyshawn because Tyshawn was a guy that just needed to be able to go play ball. You have to let the elite PG's play to their strengths and build around that, rather than stuffing them into your system.

@HighEliteMajor

Thank you for the kind words.

As I have said before - this is Kansas. Things are different here when it comes to basketball.

Naismith. Wilt. Phog Allen. 2nd most wins in D1 history. National titles under 3 different coaches (only Kentucky and North Carolina can say the same). The Rock Chalk chant. All of that makes KU different from anywhere else. Heck, from everywhere else. It's different when you have KANSAS on your jersey. The pressure is different. The expectation is different. That's why we all post on this board. Do you really think a basketball fan at Oregon would break off from the main site and create an entire new site to post like @approxinfinity did? And bring a few hundred friends along for the ride.

Again, this is KANSAS. Let's not pretend its the same. It's Kansas. We Rock. We Chalk.

GO KU!

Bill Self is not paid to win games. That is a misconception.

You don't come to Kansas to just win games.

You come to Kansas to win championships.

You can win games at K-State, or Texas Tech, or Nebraska, or Iowa, or St. Louis, or Colorado, or LSU, or Tennessee, or New Mexico, or Arizona State or probably 300 something other D1 schools.

But if you are at Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, UCLA, Indiana, Arizona or a handful of other schools, your job is to win championships. With an S on the end. KU fans assume 20 wins (probably more like 25, honestly). You won't get your contract renewed at Kansas just because you beat UC-Irvine and Holy Cross. You better do something come March.

Coaches are paid to win games. Basketball coaches at KU are paid to win championships.

@HighEliteMajor said:

It appears to me that without Bragg and Diallo, or at least one of them functioning at a high level and playing significant minutes, our chances of a national championship seem much lower than with their high functioning/involvement.

This is the big issue. We can't win a national title with a frontline of Ellis, Hunter and either Lucas or Traylor. There will absolutely be a game where we need an NBA talent big man to match up with the other team's NBA talent big man. It's probably only one game, but that's the difference between a win and a loss in the Elite Eight or Sweet Sixteen.

It's a team game, no doubt. But we have to match up on some level. We can probably get by without both Diallo and Bragg if one of them is playing well and Selden has a great tournament. We know what Perry's limitations are, so we can't expect him to morph into a 2003 Nick Collison for a month.

The fate of this team come March lies with Diallo and Bragg, for better or worse, just like it rested with Alexander last year and Embiid the year before. History is trying to teach us something. The question is whether we have learned anything.

@JRyman

I saw that play. The question I had on that play was if there was a scouting report mistake or if they were okay letting him shoot that shot. Coming into the game, that guy was 1-8 on the season from three. Not exactly a guy I'm rushing to close out on. He was 2-2 last night, but I am curious what the KU scouting report said on him.

Still, your point is well taken that Diallo and Bragg haven't yet demonstrated good team defense. But that is why you play them in December, to work out kinks like that. It's conference season now, and we all know that Self will not want to work things out and put the streak in jeopardy, so it's likely that Diallo and Bragg will get pulled and we will enter March with a very unsettled frontline.

@JRyman

I don't know that Cheick is as much a liability on D as you may believe. I think his issues are with PT right now. Defense is a group effort, and right now the guys are not as used to him being back there as they are with others. He's already blocked the third most shots on the team, and he missed five games. In not even 11 minutes a game, he's averaging 3 rebounds. That's pretty solid. And we already know about his athleticism.

This is why I would rather see Cheick having gotten more PT this month, as opposed to trying to get everyone time. The priority should have been getting Cheick and Bragg time both with Ellis and also together, because some combination of those three are part of the ultimate "best five" that we can have. We need our best five to win a title. Right now, I believe that group to be Diallo-Ellis-Selden-Greene-Mason. Unfortunately, that group hasn't played more than probably 50 or 60 total game minutes together, if that.

That's the group I would want to lean on if things got dicey against a good team.

It is critical that guys get time.

We talk about the 2008 team all the time here, because that is the most successful KU team. But why were they successful?

Well, yes, we had experience, but every single guy with experience was also very talented. Kaun, Jackson, Rush and Chalmers were all drafted that year. Arthur was also drafted. That's five NBA picks on the team.

If you can find five guys on this squad that could get drafted by the NBA next summer, I applaud you. This team doesn't have that kind of talent, particularly among its seniors. But remember something else about that 2008 squad. When games were on the line, KU put the following five on the floor - 2008 52nd pick Darnell Jackson, 2008 27th pick Darrell Arthur, 2008 13th pick Brandon Rush, 2008 34th pick Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins. That's a ton of talent. The only way this team matches that is if they put Diallo, Bragg, Selden, Svi (or Greene) and Mason on the floor together. Otherwise, there is simply no comparison.

It's not just that we had juniors and seniors in 2008. It's that those juniors and seniors were potential NBA players.

I think @HighEliteMajor has it nailed. If we are shooting 19-24 threes, that's the sweet spot. More than 25 is probably too many unless we are shooting close to 50%. You want to take good looks, but you don't want to settle for threes without seeing if you can get layups, get into the lane and draw fouls, etc.

Ideally, 3PA and FTA should be pretty close to one another each game, with FT maybe a few higher since ideally the other team will be fouling down the stretch while we protect a lead.

I have no problem with 16 if we are pushing the pace, getting out in transition, etc. because that means we are getting guys layups. I look at Frank and Devonte and I think each guy should create at least three open 3 point attempts each game for a teammate. These don't have to be assists, but it's part of PG play to create certain types of shots for certain guys.

Ideally, BG and Svi should both get a couple good looks from three created for them each game by the PG. Selden should get a 3pt look and something on the interior off a cut, a lob or a post up. Perry should get a jumper along the baseline and something in the paint. Cheick should get a dunk or layup. Bragg should get a good look from 15 feet. As PGs, Frank and Devonte should be checking those items off their list every game. That makes sure that everyone gets involved and also makes sure that everyone has a chance to take shots they are comfortable with.

@BeddieKU23

You've got some good analysis there.

I think one of the things that makes this year so interesting for college basketball is that there isn't one really talented team out there. Experience matters more this year than normal because nobody is that much better, so rather than it coming down to just a question of are you good enough or not, it comes down to other things like, can you avoid making three straight boneheaded plays in close games.

Usually around this time I have identified five or maybe six teams that I think could win the title. Heck, a couple of years I have picked my Final Four around this time and had 75% of the picks right come March because you can just tell which teams stand out. That's not the case this year, which is why I am pointing to 10 teams right now instead of six. Four of the teams I mentioned are absolutely going to flame out in the next six weeks. They just will. Two of the teams that I mentioned in that second group (the Xavier group) will step forward to be in position in case the top six teams fade. There will be one team that comes out of nowhere to be a semi-contender. I think you did a good job of identifying Providence as that team this year (I personally am keeping an eye on our old friend Frank Martin and what he's doing at South Carolina).

Every top team is flawed this year because no team has two surefire, no doubt top 10 draft picks on it. I could see teams end up with two, but I could easily see different guys rise or fall this year because some guys aren't playing well and basically nobody has been consistent.

But just like some of that top group will fade, some of that second group will fade. It's likely that either Miami or Providence will fall apart once conference season gets going. South Carolina may disappear. Baylor could charge while West Virginia vanishes. Villanova could ascend and watch Butler tumble. There just isn't much separation between a lot of these teams, so a stretch of poor play could really destroy a team's confidence and knock them completely out of contention before the middle of February. The wrong injury could bury any team right now.

There's a lot of parity this year. It's going to take a while for teams to sort themselves out. That may benefit veteran squads that won't panic, but I am going to bet on talent for now.

@BeddieKU23

When I look at teams, I look at how they have performed, but also at what their talent level is. Those three teams have all played pretty well so far, but their talent level is well above what Xavier, Butler and Purdue can boast.

For me, as I have noted many times before, I am talent over experience all day every day. An experienced guy might not make the mistakes that a less experienced player will make from time to time, but a more talented guy will make plays that a less talented guy simply cannot make. You can teach a guy to not make mistakes. You can't teach him to be more talented.

I would add Louisville to that list of 9 teams I consider good enough to win the title, so the list is now 10 (Spartans, Jayhawks, Sooners, Terps, Wahoos, Heels, AZ Cats, KY Cats, Blue Devils and Pitino's Cards). I don't much care what a team looks at against lesser teams. I care much more about how a team looks when facing the top tier because that tells me their ceiling. OU didn't play well out in the Diamondhead tournament, but they survived all of the games. Facing KU in a few days will tell me more about them than those games did, just like KU's games against Michigan State, Kentucky, and Oklahoma mean more than looking shaky against Oregon State for a half.

I group everyone together more tightly than most because I believe that the true talent of certain teams is greater than either KU or Michigan State, who have played the best so far. We saw how far MSU's true talent level dropped without Valentine. They just don't have a depth of talent that allows them to weather a major loss.

This team certainly CAN win a national title.

The challenge is that this team isn't significantly better, at least at this stage, than the other contenders. There is a bit of a muddle at the top of the polls, with, at least by my count, 9 teams that I consider good enough to challenge for the title (Michigan State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, and Duke). I need to see Louisville and Kentucky play to figure out how I feel about the Cardinals. I want to watch Arizona and Maryland again against some better competition to decide how I feel about them.

But those 9 teams all seem to be good enough. There are a bunch of other teams (Xavier, Butler, Providence, Iowa State, West Virginia, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Cal, LSU, Cincinnati, Villanova, a couple others) that have enough talent to beat any of the 9 I just named, but probably can't get consistent enough to actually win the title.

In all likelihood, two or three of those nine teams I named will fall off and there will only be six or so that stick around come March due to injury or just getting exposed in conference. I think KU will be one of those last six, along with Kentucky, UNC, Oklahoma, Arizona and Maryland. After that, it will be all about seeding and matchups.

But as always, you have to be in the group to have a real chance unless this is another one of those years where the top contenders all have serious flaws that allow a lesser team (think Purdue or Vanderbilt) to make a run in the tournament.

The only real questions for KU are will they keep playing their most advantageous style, and will Coach Self remain loose, or will he tighten up and resort to trying to pound the ball inside in a half court game if things get dicey come March?

@JayHawkFanToo

Murray is better than Ulis. Absolutely, agree 100%.

However, Murray playing PG means that he has to distribute the ball in addition to being their best or second best scoring option. That's a huge burden to carry.

On the other hand, if Ulis is playing PG, Murray is free to score when the opportunities are there. Ulis playing the point makes Murray a better scorer because Ulis can set Murray up as opposed to Murray having to get his own shots.

Because of that, this particular UK team is better with Ulis at the point, not because Ulis is better than Murray, but because Murray can have a bigger impact if he doesn't have to play the point and get everyone else involved.

Long term, I would take Murray every single time without hesitation. But for this season, if I were Kentucky, I want Ulis playing point so Murray can unleash havoc as a scorer or distributor from the perimeter, so that if Murray starts going off, he doesn't have to also worry about whether he is getting his teammates involved or not.

@JayHawkFanToo

Murray is the better player. Ulis is, for this UK team, the better PG. He can get and keep everyone involved. Murray will be a great NBA player, but he doesn't do as good a job getting all of the pieces going, which keeps everyone happy.

I don't think Perry can become Nick Collison. Collison was a much better collegiate player than Perry is. @ralster pointed out the size difference. I would go further. Let's compare career numbers:

Freshman Year

Ellis - 5.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.3 bpg, 0.4 spg, 47% fg, 67% 3p, 74% ft, 13 mpg

Collison - 10.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.9 bpg, 1.1 spg, 50% fg, 38% 3p, 67% ft, 22 mpg

Even accounting for the difference in minutes, there is a huge gap in production between the two. Collison was a decidely better freshman, as evidenced by the fact that he was able to garner 22 minutes while Ellis only merited 13.

Sophomore Year

Ellis - 13.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.6 bpg, 0.8 spg, 55% fg, 47% 3p, 76% ft, 27 mpg

Collison - 14 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.6 bpg, 1.1 spg, 60% fg, 40% 3p, 62% ft, 27 mpg

Their sophomore years are similar in points and rebounds, but Nick doubles Perry up in assists and blocks, and shot 5 percentage points better from the field. Perry exhibits the better range, but you can start to see the Nick is much better inside.

Junior Year

Ellis - 13.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.7 bpg, 0.8 spg, 46% fg, 39% 3p, 73% ft, 29 mpg

Collison - 15.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 2.2 bpg, 1.1 spg, 59% fg, 37% 3p, 57% ft, 27 mpg

And now we see the separation. Nick has continued to improve, boosting his points, rebounds and blocks, keeping his FG% steady. The only thing that took a dive was his FT%, a fact that would haunt KU the next season. Meanwhile, Perry puts up a season very similar to his sophomore campaign, only slightly less efficient.

Senior Year

Ellis - (through 10 games) 14.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.1 bpg, 0.7 spg, 53% fg, 41% 3p, 74% ft, 26 mpg

Collison - 18.5 ppg, 10 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.9 bpg, 1.2 spg, 57% fg, 34% 3p, 63% ft, 32 mpg

Collison was the horse that we rode to the national title game that year. A lot of people only remember the horrible FT shooting in that game, but you have to remember that Collison (and Hinrich) basically carried that team to the title game in much the same way that Robinson and Taylor did nearly a decade later. Ellis has taken a small step forward this year, but unless he goes crazy in conference, he's not putting up anything near what Nick did.

If KU is to go to the Final Four this year, it likely will not be because we ride Perry Ellis there. More likely we ride Selden and Mason to the Promised Land if that's where this party ends up.

Perry is a very good college player, but let's not forget, Nick was a great one.

@ralster

Chol is a reason that lower ranked guys are a bit scary. He was ranked in the 50s or 60s and just never did develop and pan out. He was thought of as a fast rising candidate, but looking back at his game, he wasn't super skilled or explosive as an athlete.

There's even a funny moment I saw in one of his HS highlight videos. Towards the end of his highlights Chol makes a move from the corner to the middle of the lane. He dunks, but its clear that the play was whistled dead, and you can see the official on the baseline signal that he traveled. If ever there was a bit of foreboding in a highlight, that is it.

I don't care how big UCI goes. KU should not try and match their size. There is no point.

We have better basketball players. We should run them off the floor with our speed. None of their guys are elite offensive players. Between Ndaiye, Best and Dimakopoulos, they average 12 points, 8 points and 5 points, and 7 rebounds, 4 rebounds and 3 rebounds. You don't change anything to match up with that. You just stay with who you are because you are better.

Best and Dimakopoulos aren't even shooting 50% from the floor! Only Ndiaye is a shotblocker (the other four combine for 22 total blocks on the year in 12 games. I would actually go small and spread these guys out. Something like Mason-Graham-Selden-Greene-Svi for a few minutes to see how they handled a 5 out look with Ndiaye having to chase around either Greene or Svi. That would be a fun lineup to run out there for a short burst.

@wissoxfan83

Alexander has been battling a knee issue for most of the season.

I can't say that colleges do a great job of development.

Take KU and our own Mr. Perry Ellis, for example. While Perry has had an outstanding KU career and will likely finish in the top 25 in both points and rebounds, in what way has Perry Ellis improved his game in such a way as to improve his own personal skills, etc?

That's not a criticism of Ellis or even Self. It's just a statement of fact. If colleges, particularly elite level programs, were great at development, Perry Ellis would/should be a pro prospect right now. He had the right pedigree coming out of HS (top 40 prospect). He went to a top program with strong coaches (Kansas). He's a very smart player (valedictorian in HS, top notch student athlete at KU). He's been productive in college (basically a 14/6 player the last three years).

So what went wrong?

I would argue that Perry Ellis was never really a pro prospect to begin with. He was/ is an undersized power forward. The NBA looks at him and all of the things I listed in the previous paragraph don't really matter because he can't come close to replicating his college success in the pros because he's not big enough, strong enough, athletic enough, skilled enough to be an NBA player.

The American Dream is that if you work hard enough, you can become something by setting your mind to it, but the truth of pro sports is that if you have not been blessed with the physical skills, you will not play in the pros. Perry falls on the wrong side of the genetic curve. Cheick falls on the right side of that curve, and will likely do more to develop in the NBA (where they will develop him in his pro role) rather than in college (where he will be coached in a way that is most conducive to winning games at the collegiate level.

We can look at the UNC career of Tyler Hansbrough as instructive here. Hansbrough was a superstar at UNC. He was one of the top players in the nation. However, it would have been beneficial for Hansbrough to develop as a stretch player rather than as a low post monster because he simply isn't big enough to play on the block in the NBA. However, it was in UNC's best interests to develop him as a low post bully. That helped Carolina win a title. Hansbrough is now in his sixth year in the NBA and he's averaging less than 10 minutes a game. His career is limited by his development as an interior player, but, like Ellis, he went to an elite school with a strong coach and stayed four years.

Being an OAD is about being on the right side of the genetic curve moreso than anything else. These guys are identified as having NBA potential because they have NBA level athleticism.

That's why I marked Selden as a potential NBA player when he arrived at KU. Same with Greene (NBA level shooting and size, with decent athleticism) Svi (same), Bragg (elite level athleticism and length from the 3/4 spot, Diallo (NBA level athleticism and length), Oubre, Alexander, Wiggins, Embiid, etc.

The NBA knows there's no real need to spend time waiting for a guy to develop unless he already checks some NBA boxes. It's a worthwhile endeavor to wait on Alex Poythress because he is an NBA caliber defender at the 3/4. It's worth it to wait on Wayne Selden because he's built like a tank with the athleticism to play the 2 in the NBA even though he still hasn't shown elite ball handling skills. Or wait on Brannen Greene to see if he can play anything resembling sound defense, because his shooting would play in the NBA tomorrow.

Iowa State is in trouble without Long.

One thing that has become apparent in looking at college basketball this season is that you cannot win without a legitimate PG. Kentucky fell apart without Ulis healthy. Iowa State is much worse without Long. UNC struggled when Paige was out. Wichita State is a shell of itself without Van Vleet. We just destroyed a quietly decent Montana team that was missing (surprise surprise) their PG.

This season may be all about PG play. Thankfully, KU has a good one.

@JhawkAlum

Scoring over size requires one of three things:

1. Superior size
2. Superior athleticism
3. Exceptional footwork and craftiness

Withey was successful because he had size.

Robinson had athleticism. The Morris twins had athleticism and they were tremendous shooters.

Perry isn't the athlete Trob was. He is skilled, but not like the Morris twins and obviously doesn't have Withey's size.

That means he's depending on his footwork and craftiness. But the problem is that Perry is an average or possibly even a below average passer from the post, so defenders can sit on his moves because they know a shot is going up.

The easiest way to score is near the basket, but that's why it is guarded so closely. Unfortunately for us, KU has not had a guy adept at scoring consistently against that type of defense in the last couple of years.

The best players on this KU team dot the perimeter. If we play some pace and space ball, we are a title contender. If we pound it inside, Sweet Sixteen is the ceiling.

@drgnslayr

Not a fan of the Warriors, per se, but I do like basketball and watching great basketball always has my attention. I love watching the Warriors, Clippers, Spurs, Hawks and Bulls because they all play some great basketball. None of them are my favorite team, but they all play great, watchable basketball. Each team has some basketball genius - Curry for Golden State, Paul for LA, about half the Spurs, Korver and Horford for Atlanta and Noah and Gasol for Chicago - that just makes watching the game so much fun. Sometimes I just watch and key on a certain guy to really see what he is doing to understand the ins and outs of the offense.

I appreciate the greatness of what the Warriors do even if I don't root for them personally.

Golden State understands gravity better than most any team I have ever watched. They understand that certain guys require defenders to guard them closely on the perimeter, so those guys (primarily Curry and Thompson, but also Iguodala, Barnes and Green to some extent) really stretch the floor by staying away from the paint and away from each other.

To help against GS, a defender has to make a decision to leave his man and go to help. Guys have to take two, sometimes even two and a half steps to help against the Warriors because everything is spaced so well.

Yes, GS has super athleticism as @wissoxfan83 points out, but they also stress the defense by using quickness and keeping the ball moving. You can't relax because the ball doesn't stay on one side. You really can't predict where the action is going to go because their sets and decoys look almost identical. I don't know that KU can match what they do, but we can (and should) certainly mimic it with the personnel that we have.