It is an interesting intellectual exercise to discuss players like the Big Red Dog, Billy Preston, and especially Diallo, as if Self were free to play them as much as the apparent lesser talented players that he opted in most cases to play more of the time instead.
But none of the three EVER probably would have been signed had Self had greater access to the kinds of big men that tend to sign with Elite programs in the EST, so I am not sure that one cannot discuss them this way in any truly meaningful way.
Diallo and Lucas were apparently a package, i.e., a kind committee, solution to a problem of insufficient D1 bigs apparently precipitated by an apparent recruiting embargo, obstruction, asymmetric channeling, or something else (you choose) of OAD/5-star grade talent at the 5.
The only reason they apparently WERE signed was what now appears an extended, and perhaps intensifying, recruiting embargo/blockade/asymmetric channelling/something else (you choose) that has apparently constrained the recruiting by our Hall of Fame coach with the highest winning percentage of any active coach in recent years, depending on the 10 year and less time frames one parses with.
With hindsight, we now can at least guess somewhat reasonably why both Cal and Self competed to sign Diallo (the hyper sashimi of big man basketball recruits), and the motivations appear to have been starkly different.
Cal apparently wanted Diallo, because: a.) raw, apparently baggage-laden guys like Diallo were apparently NOT a problem for UK to get cleared; b.) Diallo's absence of recognizable basketball fundamentals was not a great deficit in Cal's hop, skip and a jump high school offense (that already no one else runs); c.) Cal apparently correctly anticipated UK was shortly no longer going to be awarded long stacks by whatever powers may be that giveth long stacks and taketh long stacks away; and d.) Cal apparently correctly reasoned that if he signed Diallo to keep him away from Self, Self would lack sufficient inside depth to be a serious threat to UK and perhaps other Nike-contracted programs come March. All in all, it was pretty savvy of Cal to try to recruit the raw, apparent human baggage carousel that was Diallo, wasn't it?
Now reflect on our Coach Self a moment.
Self, in contradistinction, had already had extensive experience with trying to win with 3, or fewer OADs, and had loooooong experience with not being able to sign, or coach, OAD/5-star players at the 1 and 5 spots. And Self was increasingly familiar with having to develop and play 3-4 star projects. This was the temple of Bill's familiar that was all entirely Greek to Cal. In any case, Bill apparently took a significant risk (specifically of failure to clear) and signed Diallo: a.) to have someone (even someone without recognizable basketball fundamentals) with D1 grade athleticism and size inside at least for some depth; and b.) he appears to have taken his roulette wheel chance on Diallo precisely because he could claim that Kentucky recruited him, too. That's it. I can't see any other angle, can you? Bill was apparently rolling the dice to find someone that might be a fast learner (a second lightening strike like the prior project that was Embiid) in hopes of maybe being able to put at least one big on the floor with draft choice grade athleticism. He was apparently gambling, and with some desperate futility it appears in hindsight, that if Cal and UK figured they could get him cleared, then he MIGHT, or so it appears in retrospect, be able to shame the NCAA into clearing him for KU, also. A coach apparently behind a recruiting 8-ball has to remain optimistic and try every angle to have even a reasonable chance of remaining successful at the level Self has attained, right?
So why am I spending so much time on Diallo other than that you guys are arguing the merits of a guy that has never showed an ability to start and play anywhere in college or the pros?
Diallo, to me, is the poster child for what KU recruiting has largely defaulted to in the case of big men, at least.
The once vaunted Big Man U can recruit many OAD/5-star big men and get quite a few to attend Late Night, but for reasons as impenetrable as rumored scalar energy warfare, can't sign them AND clear them AND avoid issues after clearance that make playing them after a certain point before, or during a season tantamount to having to vacate that season.
KU's new nickname should be "Big Baggage Man U + 3-4star Project Man U."
So: thinking about Diallo vs. Lucas misses the point IMHO.
Self never had a rational option to play Diallo, or Lucas, other than he did.
Let me explain why I believe this was so.
Sure, I stipulate that playing either player a lot more would have improved that player a lot more. And playing Diallo more would likely have yielded a better 5 by some point in the season than playing Lucas more, if the risks of relying heavily on either player were more or less the same.
But they apparently weren't the same.
Diallo was apparently a baggage carousel big from the git go, and Lucas was apparently not.
Thus the baggage risks with Diallo were apparently up here.
And the baggage risks with Lucas were apparently way down here.
Thus, Self's only rational option from a risk management stand point was to play both in just about the increments that he did, when he did, as the baggage risk drama played out.
Diallo and Lucas appeared to have been two sides of the same coin of Self's big man strategy resulting from an apparent recruiting embargo/obstruction/asymmetric channelling/something else phenomenon (you choose) that leads into Self never recently having the kind of roster of bigs comparable to other D1 Elite programs.
Since Self apparently cannot sign OAD/5-star bigs without baggage, he has opted to sign: a.) baggage projects with D1 athleticism; and b.) 3-4 star development projects without D1 athleticism; and then c.) hedge his bet on the baggage carousel big with over reliance and development of the 3-4 star project.
Thus, Self always has to anticipate and scheme the team around bigs that take years to develop, plus around bigs that likely won't get cleared, or if they do get cleared, will pose season long risks of other discoveries of baggage; that appears to be the big man committee at the KU 5 position, perhaps since the 2008 team, but definitely more recently.
Self apparently could NEVER start and largely rely on Diallo, because Self could apparently never be certain how his signing of, and heavy reliance on, Diallo would be viewed by the powers that were, and, so, could never fully discern how signing Diallo might be used against him by the powers that were. And increasingly in hindsight, it appears that the powers that were were not JUST the NCAA, if the recent, reputed widening of the FBI/DOJ investigation is to be given creedence. There appears to be some kind of as yet vaguely understood "complex" involved. Satisfying one part of said vague complex would not necessarily guaranty satisfaction of its other parts. Some parts may be in considerable conflict and competition at times. Its hard to say.
Thus, the complexities of this circumstance reduces rational coaching of baggage carousel bigs to a kind of risk management activity, not to an activity aimed at optimization of a particular player. This same circumstance apparently leads to the playing of inferior players as part of the risk management strategy; i.e., as a kind of hedging against relatively difficult to accurately quantify risk.
IMHO, Self appears caught in, and appears to be making, something approximating "satisficing" choices about big man development in a world of problematic roster trade-offs resulting largely from an apparent, and so far only vaguely understood, recruiting embargo/obstruction/asymmetric channelling/something else (you choose).
Thus it becomes a somewhat metaphysical discussion whether or not Diallo with many more minutes of PT would have developed enough over the course of the season to have helped KU go far deeper in the Madness, than what actually transpired. What actually transpired was apparently the most rationally feasible option Self could make with the limited information he likely possesses (and his limited information is likely significantly more extensive than what we possess). Self apparently chose to risk manage by, if you will, building a big man derivative out of Diallo and Lucas,and, when the risks of playing Diallo more down the stretch outweighed the advantages of playing him a lot, then Self apparently had little or no rational alternative other than to do it the way he did. It simply seems improbable that given the complexities of the situation that faced Self regarding his apparent baggage carousel big man that he could have with 100 percent confidence predict that it would be risk free to invest solely, or even just primarily, in his development.
Diallo, Cliff, and Billy all fit into this hypothesized derivative model of Self's big man by committee approach. The inferior player has to be played a lot in order to allay the risk of even having the baggage carousel big on the roster.
Think about this past season a moment. Self had to develop not only Doke, who couldn't do anything on offense but dunk, but he also had to develop the talent-challenged Mitch Lightfoot precisely because of Billy Preston's roster presence. Self apparently chose to prepare for the entire season, not as if Billy would play, but as if Billy might not play. Had Billy not been a baggage carousel big, Self might well have been able to cryo-ice Mitch, or maybe even never sign him at all, had Self been able to sign two non baggage carousel big men with talents and abilities typical of D1 bigs at other Elite programs.
Would KU have been better, if Billy had not been a baggage carousel big that played full time? Maybe, but not certainly in the age of the three point basket. Self probably wouldn't have let KU's trey shooters take as many threes and so KU would almost certainly have lost some games, as a result. Billy might have been able to off set those losses due to reduced trey shooting, but not necessarily. But Billy would likely have been able to trigger a W on those games, when KU was slumping outside and needed higher productivity inside to get a W. But these are metaphysical considerations. The fact apparently was: Billy was apparently a baggage carousel big, or Self appeared to sense that he might have been at some point or other. At any moment he could have apparently not been cleared. At any moment he apparently could have left the program without playing a game. And in fact, he did leave the program finally before playing in a conference game. So: Self apparently rationally was wise to recognize the risk of that eventuality by developing Mitch and suboptimzing Billy even in the exhibition games.
Hedge fund investors probably appreciate and respect what Self has done in the case of Diallo and in the case of Billy, probably with Cliff also. To them, they would not dare build the derivative without some kind of a guarantied insurance contract (a contract that insures against the collapse of either end of the derivative), even if it was a fake, or underfunded GIC. But Self? Man, he sails into most seasons in a stiff head wind diverting most playable OAD/5-star 5s to EST Elite Programs, and he patches together a Diallo and a Lucas derivative at the 5, or a Billy and a Mitch derivative, and without so much as a single GIC, he charts a course for winning 82%, 30 games, a conference title and a Final Four. He doesn't often get to the Final Four, but almost always drops anchor along the way at each of the other destinations on his chart.
Damned impressive.
The captain can sail.
(Note: All opining and speculation about appearances by a layman fan viewing remotely. No insider knowledge of what is REALLY going on. Rock Chalk!)
