justanotherfan said:
@BeddieKU23
Virginia is the most consistently good team in the country. They just don't play poorly. I agree that they are a better team than the other teams in their bracket. That's why they are #1 overall.
But when I look at upsets, I look at either style, matchups or overall talent. Virginia is better than UK and Arizona, no doubt. But if UK or Arizona plays to their talent, UVA will be hard pressed to win that game because UK and Arizona both have more talent. Of course, either UK or Arizona could get bounced in their first round game because they are both inconsistent. But they could be a nightmare because they have so much talent.
Mizzou is a dangerous team because if Porter is fully healthy, he will give Mizzou the best player on the floor every night. That doesn't mean Mizzou wins, but if Porter can randomly toss up a 25 point, 12 rebound, 6 assist, 4 block, 2 steal night, that's a tough hill to climb for any opponent. Again, they can get bounced in the first round, but they can also give people a lot of problems because they are solid without Porter, but can play up to elite with him.
This is the tournament. They only have to win one game against these teams. Arizona, Kentucky and Missouri all have that type of talent.
Good points. I've been looking for ways to knock Virginia all year. I'm sure most of America has tried as well because their style just seems to be an outlier in today's game.
I have tried to see as many Virginia games as possible and they just don't budge. At Duke, they neutralized a team that scores as well as any in the country and left them scrambling to come back. Completely took Roy out of his up-tempo style twice. Play the slow down game against Clemson, you name it. Every time I think they are a Kyle Guy bad shooting night away from losing someone steps up, Hall, Jerome, Hunter, Wilkins. They do enough, they execute as well on both sides of the ball as any team I've seen in years. It's not always pretty either which makes it even more frustrating.
Of the teams in their way until the Elite 8 Creighton seems like the toughest matchup from what I've seen. The style of play as you mentioned with shooters everywhere is something I think might be able to hurt them. Their offense would really test Virginia's ability to force teams into a bad shooting night. Also looking at Virginia's recent tournament history and you find that their defense doesn't become as much of an advantage because of the competitiveness the games become. Everyone is giving effort and so it becomes more about guard play, scoring as much as defending.
Ayton might be really talented but Virginia has a defense that puts a dominate post player into retreat. One man can't beat them alone and I think Arizona's lineup and depth is too dysfunctional to play team ball for 40 minutes against them.
I don't know whether to view Kentucky's sudden shooting barrage as a sign of a team peaking or just playing really bad competition. Half of it seemed to just be a shear talent edge. I don't believe they have the team makeup to defeat Virginia without having some major momentum on their side. SGA and Gabriel played out of their mind in the SEC tourney, SGA seems capable of keeping it up but Gabriel's shooting was definitely unlikely coming in.
Porter, fully healthy would be lethal. Not sure he's going to be fully healthy playing regardless. It might be like expecting Doke to be anywhere near 100% for the tournament. I doubt Porter will be at his best but maybe he surprises as you mentioned. I know he's probably eager to prove to scouts he should be a Top 3 pick. That could play a part and the fact that their best wing player is out now means he has even more opportunity to create offense for himself.