Great title, but remember, the best presses permit the ball to be inbounded ... to the preferred spots.
I agree with @Blown -- Marshall would have been the better choice.
Great title, but remember, the best presses permit the ball to be inbounded ... to the preferred spots.
I agree with @Blown -- Marshall would have been the better choice.
Try this .. Otto Porter in 2011. If he is here for the 2011-12 season, well, just imagine that. Almost had him.
@justanotherfan Tell me that the perimeter guys we're bringing in will be better than what we have, and I'll buy it. I'm with @DCHawker and @FarSideHawk on this one 100%. Just say no to perimeter OADs this year.
Even given Selden's maddening underperformance, I'd take him over a Wiggins level talent coming in. That's my mindset.
And don't you agree that if we sign one, a current guy is likely to bolt?
@nuleafjhawk - Some light reading from last year. Definitely In your camp. Just Say No To OADs At Kansas
@BeddieKU23 I guess I'm just saying that based on the mocks, that we should presume him to be an OAD. So you know, I'm not saying he will be. Just presuming. On Svi, yea, I think he could bolt too after next season. Same reason. We should maybe assume that he'll be gone after next season.
@BeddieKU23 Now, of course, you are looking at Diallo logically ... NBA types project the development curve. Given where he is in the mocks, as in money talks, we do have to assume he is an OAD, right? That item, the money, is all that matters on the OAD merry go round. Self will have to assume he will leave in his recruiting behind him. There is a reasonable chance that Diallo will play well enough to justify the projection.
Anyone see the Oubre Video ↗?
"Thanks for the memories" at the end?
Uh, what memories?
Nice kid, but let's not pretend this was anything but a one-night stand.
If we sign Diallo to go with Bragg, that's fine. Not my preference. Diallo shows up in the top 10 of NBA mocks, so he is a presumed OAD.
But right now, we have no choice, right? It's either Diallo or Thorne. At least with Diallo we have a chance for a 2nd year. Both bad options for this program.
Better option .. the option that has passed .. is to sign another non-OAD, top 60ish post guy.
Regardless, as long as Traylor, Lucas Mickelson are not in our top three post players, that's a win. Makes you wonder why they take up scholarships.
On the perimeter, if we sign an OAD, one of our five perimeter players will be gone. Book it. A Selden transfer? Not out of the realm of possibility -- "I want to play closer to my family." Or turning pro. "The D-League puts me in a position to reach my goal." Even though Greene's dad said he's not transferring, that is not a done deal. "I really want to be a starter -- or at least the 4th perimeter guy." Even though Svi says he's coming back, can we be sure? "Svi want money in Europe." And it might be hard to fathom a defection by Graham, it does make sense. "I'm not interested in staring at Mason backside for two more seasons." What about Mason? He's the only one I think is dead locked in.
Do we want Jaylen Brown if it causes a defection? I don't. Go somewhere else. UCLA has warmer weather. Try that. I'll keep our five.
@DCHawker I almost didn't post the link .. it would just provoke @jaybate-1.0 more. What do these kids get from the shoe companies that inspire such loyalty? Hmmmm.
Can we all now just sit back and digest .. Wiggins, Embiid, Oubre, Alexander. Convince me this OAD crap has been worth it. I only have one request, you have to include "Stanford" and "WSU" in your response.
Northern Iowa, YES there was an OAD but that team was pretty solid.
Sorry, tried to edit the link on your post and couldn't get it to work either. Here it is
@BeddieKU23 I do think Svi will improve -- and the shots will start falling. I'm not so sure about Greene. I think Greene is what he is.
I can't say that one or some of those players wouldn't improve us. But I can't say they would. It seems easy to conclude that bringing in highly talented players will necessarily translate to better team results. But that has not been proven to be the case.
We saw Oubre struggle to even get on the floor much of the time his past season. He had 31 total points in the first 9 games. Not much bang for our OAD buck. His season was marked by wildly inconsistent production. Look at his ppg. One game he plays 19 minutes, 0 points. Then a five game stretch in double figures. Then a four game stretch averaging 7.5 points and no games in double figures. He had games where he was a complete non-factor. The reality is that he was nowhere near as good as I had hoped, or expected. In my humble opinion, I would have rather had Andrew White as our starting three all season, with Oubre going elsewhere. Anyone here think White would have given us better, more consistent numbers over the course of the entire season? I sure do.
But that doesn't mean Oubre wasn't good, per se. He wasn't as "good" in Self's system. If he had gone to UK, I expect that he would have been another cog in their machine. But this is Bill Self's Kansas Jayhawks. The reality is we expect more from freshman than we should .. but we should expect a lot from the OAD crowd. Oubre didn't live up to that.
All that said, I will take talented experience over the flavor of the month.
You replace Oubre with a more ready player. Svi should be that. Svi is as good an athlete, he plays solid defense, better on post entry passes (something not to be dismissed in Self's system) and he's a better ball handler. Oubre a better rebounder. We'll see who ends up the the better three point shooter. I'll be very surprised if Svi isn't a better total package next season.
We lose Oubre, but Svi didn't really play. So it's like having a new player. But a new player with a year in the system. And a new player that is highly talented. And remember, Svi played ahead of Oubre early because Svi "got it" quicker than Oubre.
However, check this out on Jaylen Brown -- says he is going to an Adidas school. ↗
@REHawk - I think Self knows Cliff is gone and he's moving on. I wonder, though, what recruits think or know? I bet it's common knowledge that Cliff is gone.
@FarSideHawk -- Ok, is the "le sigh" kind of like the "le meow"? ↗
Cool thread .. love speculating on lineups. I assume Oubre is gone.
I think the three spot is Selden's job to lose. Self has given Selden so much rope, and it became apparent late in the season that it was perhaps unwarranted. He just flat disappeared. His defense was myth many times, vs. reality. And above all, as @jaybate-1.0 notes, his measurables -- rebounds, steals -- bordered on horrific. His ball handling, sadly, was just as bad as I harped on in the off season when discussing his worthiness to play the one. Really, it was worse. Does he dribble a basketball around campus, in the elevator, everywhere? If not, he should.
I admit that I am surprised by the news from Brannen Greene's dad. I thought he'd transfer. The reality is that Greene is likely the 5th perimeter guy again. His skill set is marginalized here. But his dad realizes, I think, that Self is pushing Greene to be complete player. His dad realizes that his skill set ... shooting ... will not be diminished even if the attempts aren't there. Greene has an NBA level skill. Can the rest of his game rise to the level to keep him in the NBA for two or three contracts? Interesting arguments either way.
There is no way in my mind that Svi stays off the court. If I had to bet, perimeter is Mason at PG, Svi at the 2, and Selden at the 3. Graham first off the bench. Then Greene.
I don't want any stinking OADs. Go somewhere else. I want Andrew White back.
The speculation that Graham could transfer is based on logic. Mason seized the job. Graham will be staring at his backside for two more years. Then, as a senior, he knows that Self could land the next Derrick Rose and Graham would be on the bench. Not likely, but worthy of consideration. But Graham's role is dead secure. He's the second best ball handler. When that's the case, you play at every level.
If you want ball handling, play Mason, Graham, and Svi on the perimeter. That would be my choice. But I think Self will stick with Selden as a starter. I liked moving him to the bench and trying him off the bench during the season, but that never happened. Selden is Self's "chosen one."
The "play two small guard" thing, it appears, was nothing more than talk to appease the then crowded backcourt that included three small dudes ... Mason, Graham, and CF. Much like Self admitted that "playing small" wasn't a reality after CF transferred.
If Oube does come back, someone will leave. If Self signs and OAD, someone leaves. Mark it down. We will not go into the season with 6 perimeter guys of that quality. Someone might leave just before the season like CF, after things shake out.
I'll take these five guys. We can sign some scrub ... er, non-ranked player ... to be emergency fodder.
@brooksmd At least he'd be our "slime ball", right?
@DCHawker said:
@nuleafjhawk You have SECOND. And, a SECOND point - who knows how many B10 titles Izzo has? Does anyone care or give that a SECOND thought? The focus is on the E8s and FFs, not not making it to the SECOND weekend.
Try telling some folks this. How many sit around and get all creamy in the jeans listening to the praise of our "amazing" conference streak?
The streak is nice, impressive, even historic. No doubt. It is just different than FF discussions.
But conference titles simply do NOT define greatness. The Final Four and winning national championships define greatness.
Look at it this way, if conference titles defined greatness, wouldn't we hold a parade?
Self goes to Oklahoma St.; and introducing the new coach of the Kansas Jayhawks, Greg Marshall!
That would be a completely upside down world.
Ah, this feels a little like the OAD merry go round to me.
And this all is not black and white .. shoot "X" number of threes. It's about scheme, and freedom to shoot, and game situation/opponent. You could shoot 7 and win. Or 24. Just go through Duke and Wisconsin's box scores. I have. I haven't gone through MSU's in detail yet. It's quite interesting.
Personally, I just can't stand the "don't shoot them" mentality that overtook this team after Fool's Gold was uttered. That's just plain shortsighted. If coach Self would just free his mind a bit .. see coach K and Izzo .. we'll have a better, more diverse offense.
@sfbahawk Goodness .. yes. Absolutely. You do not shoot 19+ per game and not scheme to get those looks. Further, a big part of this too -- the freedom to shoot them. Not all the bitching and complaining about the shots. That doesn't mean a bad shot doesn't get scolded, just not the clear disdain for it.
Again, perhaps you miss the point. You say Duke won by going inside, to which I say two things, 1) Sure, and 2) So what? That is not to be disrespectful, but again, it seems as though you say that to disparage the three. Teams that shoot the three do win by going inside. But that means nothing.
But actually, Duke went 8/19 from three. So that kind of takes care of that, even if that's not the point. I kind of thought Winslow's three with 2:50 left to stretch the lead to 9 was the dagger, as good old Verne said.
Threes and going inside can work together. They have to. They do. It's best that way. And Inside-Out is the best way to play, no doubt.
@sfbahawk You do understand -- just checking -- that Izzo's comment doesn't disparage the three? Teams that shoot a good number of threes shoot them too often from time to time. Remember, I don't think we or anyone should just shoot threes. If you can score inside, do it. Be sure to scheme to get open looks from three as part of your offense.
I say that all because it seems that folks like to make points to me about three point shooting when coaches say things about limiting threes, as if that somehow counters any points I've made (not saying that's what you did -- just a discussion point).
Actually, my point right now is look at MSU, Duke and Wisconsin. Different offenses. Each of which find a way to shoot 19 threes as part of a diverse overall scheme to score the basketball. As simplistic as it can get -- why can't we do that?
@jaybate-1.0 You have me utterly confused .. I just read your trey ball post "just for HEM". Where do you stand on this? I must be missing a nuance or distinction somewhere.
Are you saying that you do need to shoot the three ... like these other guys; and are you also saying Self made the right choice cutting the threes and going bad ball with low rate of threes?
@cragarhawk - Understand @jaybate-1.0 and I are on different ends of this. I respect his view. But I believe it ignores the strong weight of the evidence. It is speculative. Perhaps just as speculative as if we said we would have been 10-1, like you said. What we do know is that we were 6-5 after going 21-4. We see other teams shooting threes as part of their schemes (and there is a big difference between 15 and 20 threes. A big difference). In the three "bad ball" games before Cliff's suspension, we went 1-2. But I think Cliff was marginalized anyway -- he played only 10 minutes vs. KSU in his last game.
Here are your final four teams -- MSU 19.55 threes per game; Duke 19.21 threes per game; Wisconsin 19.78 threes per game; Kentucky 15.18 threes per game.
Kansas? 15.61 threes per game. After "bad ball", again, just over 12. Seriously, is this even a debate? My view is simply incorporating the threes more strongly, shooting that 19 per game number perhaps (or more because of your interior inferiority) -- but not just haphazardly. But scheming to get the looks. There is a big difference.
Wisconsin, Duke, and MSU run offenses that get three point looks. That is part of their strategy. It's not an inconvenience, it's not the enemy, it's not a second thought. It is part of their core offensive strategy.
No one will ever convince me that if Self adapted his high low to embrace the three, scheme within his normal offense for the three, that we finish 6-5 or worse. No way. No way I'm convinced that we couldn't beat WSU or Notre Dame playing that way. No way. Notre Dame should have beaten UK with one real big guy .. who wasn't any taller than Lucas or Mickelson, and was ranked #97.
We lost a big, big opportunity this season. I sure hope coach Self isn't sitting there thinking he got the best he could have out of this group.
@jaybate-1.0 Are you trying to prove or suggest that threes don't matter? Or is it just a "matter of fact" thing?
Anyway, some thoughts:
First, though, neither team runs the same "sets". Maybe a few set plays .. I didn't notice. But KU's base offense isn't the same as either team. And I didn't see the perpetual weave. What are you referring to?
Second, on three pointers, MSU won today and shot 23 three pointers. Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Michigan St., all playing this weekend shoot more threes for the seeason. Michigan State shot a gaudy 19.55 per game this season (including today). UK shot about the same. Only Arizona shot lees than us for the season -- 14.01.
We shot 15.61. But more importantly, we shot just over 12 per game after the switch in strategy to finish the season.
The point is that Self inexplicably decreased the number of threes we normally shoot per game while having no inside presence near AZ or UK.
Here's a quote from Tom Izzo Friday, before his sweet 16 game: "There's a lot of different ways to win. I think a lot of coaches have done it different ways. One of the biggest ways is you'd better adjust to the talent you have and play somewhat within your own system because you don't want to change everything."
Go look at Izzo's teams. In 2012 and 2013, their three point attempts were 534 and 523. In 2014 and 2015? 766 and 743.
Self refuses to take advantage of the second most potent weapon in basketball. And this season, he actually decreased it from our normal totals.
Here is what you do .. If you don't have the post men, you adjust and do something different. In a KC Star article this week, it was reported that Self had reservations about his post scoring before the season. We all saw it within a few games. You play to your strengths. Self has even said that. Self refused to do it, though. We weren't even running offense in the second half vs. WSU. Heck, we were 21-4. Then "bad ball." 6-5. Ugh.
@FarSideHawk @JRyman Ah, and those are really good points. What will he do with better talent, different dynamics, bigger expectations, more pressure? Waht will he do on a bigger stage? Has he ever had to deal with a player that knows, before he sets foot on campus, that he will eventually make more money than his coach does? You can slay the giants in one game settings here and there (though Marshall's #1 seed in 2014 got bounced early), but how do you do day in, day out. Thus the good McDermott example. Self has proven that he can win at every level. ORU, Tulsa, Illinois, Kansas. You mentioned the smaller schools -- Self's Elite Eight with Tulsa.
@Hawk8086 You're hitting on the point of raw talent and developed talent. The Cliff Alexander vs. Thomas Robinson. The Kelly Oubre vs. Travis Releford. The Andrew Wiggins vs. Andrew White. The Stephen Zimmerman vs. Tyler Davis. Yes, I'll take make chances with developed talent.
@DCHawker Exactly .. Marshall has proven he can take inferior talent and beat top talent already. Has Self ever had to play a season here with roster that looks like WSU?
Or heck, try Notre Dame -- they played seven players. One guy 6'10, then three 6'5" guys, one 6'1" guy, and a 6'5" and 6'8" off the bench. All with players ranked #38, #86, #97, #105, #108, #128, and #145. They should have beaten UK. We should have just stayed home vs. UK.
You don't want to see the non-rankings of the WSU players. Heck, we complain about Traylor and Lucas, but those are the kind of guys that other programs have to win with.
Bill Self's consistency is amazing -- the consistency at getting amazing talent. I wonder how Self would do against Marshall, Brey, or many other coaches right now if he had the exact same talent?
Realistically, I think he'd do fine. I think his system raises the floor. I just don't think that we should poo-poo other coaches that succeed.
@KUinLA The reason for the bashing? A part of it might be that folks are threatened by his success. Threatened by what they really know. Threatened by what we saw this season. And perhaps a bit worried. This team can only win one way .. it's either the only way Self will let it win, or the only way Self can win. Either way, if we don't have the right personnel for his system, we now know we're out of luck offensively ... regardless of how good the talent is overall. He won't adjust to fit his talent.
@VoyagingJayhawk I will read the link ... thanks.
@sfbahawk You are right. I perhaps misinterpreted that first sentence. Change "will" to "may" and I'm good with that. How about the rest of it being brilliant?
Dang right, On Wisconsin! Beat UK! We may all be Badgers this week.
@Shanghai_RCJH If Marshall leaves and goes to Texas, yes, CF could follow to Texas. But CF would then have to sit out the entire 2015-16 season (instead of just through Christmas break). And he'd be eligible to start the 2016-17 season as a junior. He would have basically wasted two seasons.
@VoyagingJayhawk But my reference was to ballistics .. I am not referring to what you mentioned. I was referring to the injuries. A full metal jacket bullet will penetrate, stay in its general form, and exit. Thus the "pristine" bullet (supposedly) found on the stretcher.
However, the bullet that struck Kennedy's head was clearly a hollow tip bullet, and a hollow tip that fragmented, as noted by the autopsy.
This would mean that Oswald's one gun, fired two different types of bullets.
@DoubleDD said:
Bottom line is if you're going to play a system, then you recruit to that system and understand you will get beat by pure talent. Yet if you going to play this new game and recruit the OAD's then you have to develop a system to play to your strengths. Even if it means reinventing the wheel ever year.
This is brilliant.
@BeddieKU23 Agreed .. but you know what I'm going to say. They schemed to take advantage of their offensive strengths. We didn't. We didn't have any real offense the entire second half. Pretty easy to play defense when the offense doesn't make you work.
@nuleafjhawk And we are participating in the OAD system out of our own free will. When you reference experience, it seems even more important with a rigid system coach.
@drgnslayr said:
Most of the clowns on that team I will never respect. They are cowards for teaming up like that and doing that to college basketball. Gutless wimps. Cowards without an ounce of man in them to venture out and have to really fight for a championship. Total cowards.
You have never been accused of holding back your opinion!
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Gregg Marshall or John Calipari worshiper at all. I'm usually not like this, but I admit that it will be a great moment if UK loses without the national title. I'm kind of thinking it would be best in the NC title game ... have it taken away in the last moment. That's all this tourney is about now.
I was watching sportscenter this morning. They had a graphic with the UK NBA guys .. Cousins, Davis, Noel, Wall, and Prince -- all having huge games last night.
Why should Kansas chase the UK blueprint, when that recruiting standard is unattainable? Isn't a different approach more warranted? And look, this UK team is beatable. And a Bill Self type team is the exact type of team to beat them .. if he had the pieces for his system.
I may post this quote repeatedly. Here is the first time. Tom Izzo, on Friday -
"I don't know if it's validation," Izzo added. "It's just you do what you have to do. There's a lot of different ways to win. I think a lot of coaches have done it different ways. One of the biggest ways is you'd better adjust to the talent you have and play somewhat within your own system because you don't want to change everything."
This seems like the perfect balance.
@Lulufulu That's why I can't stand the OAD deal .. you don't get that real attachment to a kid at all. To be honest, while I really like Embiid, I still wish we would have gotten a three-four year guy in the top 60ish range in the post instead of Embiid in 2013 (and thus we wouldn't have gotten Cliff either). He'd be a junior next season, we'd presumably have a better developed player, and we'd be better off. Even if the guy didn't develop as we'd hoped, we wouldn't be any worse, would we? Heck, doubtful he'd be worse than Traylor.
I'll toss this out here .. I've seen some of the Gregg Marshall bashing this week. I don't get it. I see @Crimsonorblue22 calling him a "slime ball" and "Marsha." While I do appreciate the humor in the "Marsha" stuff .. I really do .. Marshall has produced more at WSU the last three seasons than Self has here. And the guy is most definitely not a slime ball.
What has Marshall done wrong? Called us chickens? Good for him. We are chickens for not playing WSU.
To numbers, has Self ever gone undefeated in a regular season (for those that value the regular season so much)? And Marshall has done more with far less -- and that is important to remember, really the most important point. He kicked our ass with a bunch of unranked guys (or low ranked). He just didn't beat us, he embarrassed us.
All of those who want to say we did what we did against a tougher schedule -- that argument was destroyed in 40 minutes in Omaha. WSU was just better. I'm guessing folks might not mock the MVC quite as much now, particularly since Self coached teams have been knocked out prematurely by three of them -- UNI, WSU, and Bradley.
The Marshall bashing to me is embarrassing also. There is the tendency to nit pick and trash folks that get the upper hand on you. We see it all the time with Calipari. Calipari is doing something, quite frankly, that our coach can't. And what's worse, our coach has taken the bait and has now diluted his own program with the OAD stench. All Calipari does is win. But he's a devil for winning. I don't see that any of his players had to sit out this season due to an NCAA inquiry.
Back to Marshall -- If all we have to fall back on is the history of our program, that's nice, but that doesn't get you a national title in 2015.
Bill Self couldn't figure out how to beat an undersized WSU team. If he could have, he would have faced another very undersized team in ND. And we would be playing UK today to really achieve something this season. Instead, KU fans are getting up this morning, finding a conference title t-shirt, and watching other programs do what we should be doing.
@Family-Hawk On your rumor, Ron Baker would be absolutely nuts to consider coming to Kansas. Goodness. He was in a system where he could highlight his qualities. That just isn't happening here. I seriously doubt that Baker was ever benched for shot selection. I watched 6 WSU games this season. Never once saw it. If Baker is graduating and can go where he wants, he should follow Marshall.
Not being harsh here, but I don't miss either of them. If they would have been here for a college career, sure. I miss Withey. I miss TRob. I miss Sherron. I miss the Morrises. I miss Releford. I miss EJ.
I do wish Black would have started here. But as for Wiggins, nice kid, handled himself well and all, and I like him -- but I don't miss him at all. I'll be honest, I miss Andrew White more the Wiggins by a long shot.
@VoyagingJayhawk Let me ask you this then, from a ballistics standpoint. How does one bullet pass directly through Kennedy -- clean hole in the back, clean hole in the front (throat). And then a second essentially explode his head? That to me would indicate two types of bullets. One with a full metal jacket (passing straight through) and the second with a hollow point (exploding upon impact). That has always been my biggest doubt. Remember the "pristine" bullet supposedly found on his stretcher? Compare to a bullet that literally disintegrated in his head.
The 9/11 conspiracy stuff is much different than the Kennedy stuff. There is a plausible explanation and argument that Oswald did it absolutely alone, but there are plausible arguments that he did not do it absolutely alone -- and that's the only issue in a conspiracy. Did he do it absolutely alone with no other involvement?
@drgnslayr I was very impressed with Graham. He is not as good of a ball handler as Mason, but still pretty stout. But he is a much better creator -- better drive and dish. I agree completely. Next season, I would love to see Graham at the 1, Mason the 2, and Svi the three. Ball handling at all three spots.
@ralster You said, "Self has a very, VERY positive track record with McDAA-level talent that returns for another season or two. TrueOADs are very iffy ..."
You are right. You identified in another thread how successful Self was with many non-OAD post players. Sometimes you just have to recognize who you are. That's why I REALLY wanted Tyler Davis along with Bragg. Davis went to Texas A&M. I would rather have had Davis than any OAD. Period.
As @DanR pointed out above, the merry go round continues. Does Cliff Alexander even feel like a Jayhawk? I know that's a little rough to say, but it doesn't feel like it to me.
KU was a pitstop. As I've said for quite some time now, I'd rather have guys that need KU to the get to the NBA, not guys that need a place to go for eight months.
@jaybate-1.0 Great topic and conversation .. I was slammed all week with work and just couldn't take part. Just read all of the posts. Terrific thread. This is a real off-season discussion. We (me) need to move on now and look forward. How can Kansas better next season? This entire thread has gotten me thinking ....
I tend to think that we notice the nicks and bruises more with KU because we follow KU. Most of us know if one of our guys sneezes differently than normal.
But you have a point. It does seem like we're dealing with stuff like this a lot, particularly recently. We tend to hear about these injuries many times after the fact. I always take it with a grain of salt. Mainly because I don't care if a guy is hurt or not. If he can play, play. If he can't, then don't. And also because they seem to come across to me as veiled excuses. When you have Svi and Hunter as the last two guys on the bench, the excuses ring a touch hollow.
@Hawk8086 I believe we are searching for any reasonable explanation, aren't we?
@FarSideHawk I've wondered that too. But the back story I've heard .. mainly because I have a friend who knows the team doctor real well .. is that Hudy is terrific.
I look at it this way. Money talks. You have hundreds of officials. You're telling me that a number of them aren't corrupt? Folks have done far less for money. I think there are refs right now that are affecting outcomes.
My guess is that it comes on the over/under. Targeted games. Games where refs can really guide to score over by a big increase in foul calls. Getting teams in the bonus quickly. Hard to keep a basketball game under.
And it doesn't have to work every time. Say a ref's brother in law drops $50,000 on three games, and two of the three fixes pan out? That's a net win of one game, and less the juice, you still make money.
I actually think college football is the easier mark for refs. Again, the over/under being the easier bet to beat.
I do think it is just a matter of time until we get news of fixes or the point spread being affected.
There is a very easy solution to this .. win. Marshall can be arrogant, gloat, etc. He deserves it. His moment in the sun. WSU and Marshall earned it. They were better in every aspect Sunday. The only thing we had on them were higher ranked recruits.
If Self would have manned up and just played WSU over the last few season, this game wouldn't have had the same drama. His explanations are bogus. We play a team each season at the Sprint Center -- a few years ago it was Davidson. Last year New Mexico. This season Utah. So we weren't traveling to any recruiting territory there. And we have travelled to the recruiting hot-bed of, uh, Colorado.
This game will draw Midwest interest, at least. And yes, we do recruit players from the Midwest, and certainly we do from Wichita and the state of Kansas.
It's one of those situations where you can always come up with a reason not to do something.
Imagine a worse scenario .. we have refused to play MU. MU stinks. We'd be pounding them right now. Then, in a few years, they make the NCAA tourney. Guess what the bracket makers will do? Not saying we won't win, but the game is certainly a likely eventuality.
@ralster @Lulufulu - I'm running with work today but saw the inversion item .. yes, WSU does invert their guards/wings by flashing and posting up. What I saw a number of times was Cotton, Baker, and/or Wessel flash across mid to upper lane, or go to the block for a quick look, and then, move out. They did this regularly all season. They don't invert their post players. We posted up Selden once the entire season (vs. OSU). I do not recall another time where we even attempted to post up perimeter player.
Man, do you guys sleep? Anyway, the discussion is off to a good start here. Great points.
@Vailhawk - Your questions/discussion points are good ones. If I am a dad of a top three point shooting HS player, Kansas is not the place. CF, Brannen Greene, Andrew White, Jeremy Case (a blast from the past) were not fits here. And fit is what this is all about in my opinion. It isn't valued. And yes, I think that is why they transfer. Reality sets in. I think Brannen Greene is still a big risk to transfer for just that reason. I just don't know on Dooley, though. What I have always wondered about on the KU staff is whether they are "yes men." Meaning, is there any critical thinking and devil's advocacy, or is it, "we're implementing coach's stuff." I don't know. The offensive coordinator thing hit me this past weekend. A coach in the tourney mentioned a staff member as the offensive coordinator, and I know many coaches delegate the authority over aspects of the game. Seems to make sense.
@approxinfinity - And you hit the next big discussion point -- OADs. And @VailHawk followed up. I have purposefully been silent on the OAD thing all season. Waiting, watching. I see what Duke is doing now. Don't know the final result. I definitely have an opinion after the past two seasons, and will address that in a more comprehensive post. Great point.
@jaybate-1.0 I appreciate your insight. I would challenge you a bit though -- Bad ball did not win us the conference, did it? Our shift in offensive focus occurred when we were 10-2 in conference. We went 3-3 thereafter. Perhaps, though, I'm not grasping the full breadth of your bad ball definition. Wichita St. playing bad ball? WSU ran a sophisticated offensive scheme premised on pick/roll, inside screens, inversion, and drive and drop (with shooters in specific hot spots). They isolated their post man to take advantage of perimeter overplays. It doesn't get much better than that. That as being bad ball doesn't compute with me. They played tough, aggressive defense .. but they collapsed to prevent penetration. I'm curious as to what makes this bad ball -- is the bad ball tent bigger than I'm assuming?
@sfbahawk - The inability to feed the post is a nice observation. During one of our games this season, the color guy mentioned that Self had said that we were poor in the post entry game. I appreciate that you associate me with Brady. I really do. But I also appreciate his post feeding ability. I also saw excellent post feeds from EJ and Releford, but no doubt Brady was the best. But who is the best on this team? Without a doubt, it is Svi. He was excellent at this aspect, but of course found the bench. A good post feed is necessary -- I do think, though, that our inability to do something after receiving the ball was more the issue. I do agree that Self gave Wiggins the green light pretty much all of the time -- Wiggins Rules. He also let Wiggins loaf up and down the court. And he also let Wiggins make mistakes that others wouldn't get away with. Now, he did bench Wiggins here and there, but it was rare.
On Self and your "courage of their convictions" statement, about Self and simply saying he should be fired -- I appreciate @ParisHawk's follow-up. I will also say this: The same inclination that folks have to defend coach Self is the same inclination many have in resisting any suggestion that he be fired - He's one of us. He's like a brother. You don't cast a family member into the street over a perceived failing, or a difference in opinion. I can assure you beyond any doubt that if I felt Self should be fired, I'd say it. Rather, I think that Self is who he is. The challenge is making this team fit Self's image. I talked a lot in the preseason about this. If Self is inflexible, so be it. But he better get guys that match his system then. No middle ground.
@ParisHawk - I have really wondered. The players comments show no hint of discontent or issues. But as we found with Selden's comments in the preseason about last season's team, sometimes we just don't have confirmation until later. When Self yells, "what are you doing", my first thought is why? And the answer is frustration. Many of his reactions are out of frustration. He gets angry. It's how he substitutes sometimes, though I think he's moderated a bit there. I wonder about Selden. What is going on there? Is there some disconnect? It will be interesting to see how the roster plays out.
@FarSideHawk @cragarhawk @joeloveshawks - Effort, intensity, energy, motors -- or playing with the "chip" as @drgnslayr has emphasized. Who wanted that game more? Heck, one of our players commented about that after the game. That absolutely baffles me. Look, this a very much on the players. I get that. But Quinn Snyder infamously said, "You can't coach effort." A comical statement. Of course you can. It's right there on the job description. There is little doubt to me that coach Self tries to coach effort. It's a great quality. I just wonder, back to @ParisHawk's point, could Self have lost this team mentally? Could they have checked-out, disconnected? Boy, I just don't know.
@BeddieKU23 - Thanks. I really like the idea of pinpointing tell-tale games. Looking back, for me, it was the Temple game that you mentioned. In all of the years watching KU hoops, was there ever a more baffling game? Just blown out by a team that ended up not making the tourney. The Jekyll & Hyde thing, I personally think that it was the struggle for the identity of this team. Bill Self, in my humble opinion, tried to make this team something it wasn't; and worse, wouldn't let the team be what it was. Bad analogy maybe, but if your son is gay, he's gay. You may not like it. You may get him a subscription to Playboy. But the dude is gay. I put that in bold because I wish I would have said that in my main post. Anyway, it's very hard to change who you are. And in my little mind, this team was a perimeter team. No doubt.
@nuleafhawk @ralster - Points well taken. I tend to think that Self is Zenger's boss, but I 'could be mistaken ....
This is not a pleasant discussion. This discussion does require one to be objective. From time to time I've asked of folks to "Free your mind." If you come to this discussion with a mind that is not free enough to consider possibilities beyond coach Self's basketball world, then log off now. This is not for you. If you have a propensity for citing conference championships as the gospel, then you simply don't get it. Take the escape hatch now. If, however, you would like to challenge yourself, read further. Critique. Analyze. Postulate. Free your mind.
What We Witnessed: Folks, this was a disaster. WSU's defensive scheme was better, their offensive scheme was better, and their players were clearly more inspired. This was a knock-out. It's very disappointing to me. Last season, I felt very strongly that Self was outcoached by Johnny Dawkins. Dawkins shut down Wiggins with an active strategy to do so, and used his team's height to contest our looks at the rim. What was most disappointing was our failure to adjust our attack. This season was a little different. What we saw vs. WSU was what we have seen since we we 21-4. It was more endemic than the issues last season. But in a complete white wash, Gregg Marshall outcoached Bill Self. Marshall was even ahead on the Soviet judge's scorecard when Self's head hit the canvas.
Our NCAA Reality: The fact is, in 12 NCAA tournaments, Kansas has underachieved by 10 seeding lines under coach Self. I graded it out by seeds. If you have a 1 seed, Final Four. 2 seed, Elite Eight. 3 or 4 seed, Sweet 16. Bonus point for getting to the title game. Two points for winning the title. 2004 +1; 2005 -2; 2006 -2; 2007 -1; 2008 +2; 2009 even; 2010 -3; 2011 -1; 2012 +2; 2013 -2; 2014 -2; and 2015 -2. Total = -10. That is reality. You can't dress that up. March has not been kind. March doesn't lie, the ultimate judge and jury on the path the greatness.
Bad Ball: We left Lubbock after thrashing Texas Tech by 20+ on the road 20-4. We returned to AFH, beat Baylor's zone using our zone offense, and stood 21-4. Self adjusted our zone offense in that game, moving to an even man front against Baylor's odd man front zone. Again, 21-4. Then it happened. Everything changed. @jaybate-1.0 coined the term, "bad ball." Our offense changed from an offense that searched out the post feed and shot nearly 18 three pointers a game, to a drive, drive, and drive some more approach. Self preached that we needed to get the ball to the basket, and score inside. This was just a different way to score inside. Drawing fouls was a large part of the theory. Muck up the game, make it ugly, draw fouls, get to the line, and win by attrition.
Bad Ball An Unequivocal Failure: Simply compare pre-bad ball to post-bad ball. The numbers don't lie. Most importantly, Kansas was 21-4 pre-bad ball. Kansas was 6-5 post bad ball. Bad ball did not win the conference. Bad ball nearly lost it. Pre-bad ball had Kansas standing at 10-2 in conference. Bad ball had us at 3-3 in conference. And we know bad ball didn't win the Big 12 tourney. And we know bad ball didn't get us out of the second round of the NCAA tourney. In conference games before bad ball, we were +9.5 in margin of victory. After bad ball began, we were just +2.5 (which includes both the NMSU and WSU blowouts). The worst part about "Bad Ball" is not the drive it to the hoop approach. I never had any argument with that -- the search to score inside. The flaw, the fatal flaw, was the abandonment of our three point game and our jump shooting. Self called this group the best shooting team he has had at Kansas. Yet he pushed that to the back of the bus. This shift was an unequivocal failure. Not only did Self's change in offensive strategy not improve our offense, it made our offense .. and our team .. worse. There is no denying that now. Self's move away from the status quo made our offense worse, led to less team success, and sent our season into the toilet. Self flat out blew it. Our offensive efficiency went into the tank. Our points per possession went south. We were lost. We had no offensive rhythm. And basketball season is over. Yes, Marshall outcoached Self ... but this result was over a month in the making. It wasn't a one game strategy failure like Stanford.
Lost Without The Post Feed: This is perhaps the biggest takeaway from this season -- Bill Self struggles as an offensive coach without the post feed. Bill Self's lack of offensive acumen was clearly exposed this season. He is a one trick pony. When the post feed was removed from his offense, he floundered. No one can dispute that. It's one of two things. Either Self just isn't a very good offensive mind, or Self is just entrenched in the offensive dogma he preaches. I believe it is a chunk of both. And this is his fatal flaw. But we've seen our offense struggle for years, even with the post feed in high gear. Is this surprising? Heck, some football coaches are better defensively than offensively. That applies to basketball too. Self's aversion to the three point shot is famous and this limits his world view, so to speak, of basketball offense. We talk about it. Local sport reporters talk about it. National commentators talk about it. John Gasaway on ESPN, just before the WSU game, said, "Who will make the 3s this time around? Likely not Kansas. Self's aversion to the 3-point shot is relative and not absolute (he's no Roy Williams or Larry Brown), but it is also well-documented and above all consistent." This aversion to the three pointer will continue to keep Kansas from reaching it's offensive peak, even when we can feed the post with impunity. And it destroyed this team's chances this season. We need a new offensive coordinator. A director of offensive operations for Self to rely upon.
Post Feed Futility Obvious Early: At a very, very early stage in this season, many of us identified that the post feed with this team was futile. UK was a horrific foreshadowing. Without doubt, it was by the Utah game. We had witnessed Brannen Greene win Kansas the Georgetown game. Then, against Utah, we had our best half of basketball, ravaging the Utes from outside in the first half. Self mocked Ellis' outside efforts at halftime, first uttering the Fool's Gold baloney. In the second half, we were horrible. Self clearly mandated that we pound the post for much of the second half -- I documented our possession here after the game. We barely hang on and won a game where we had built a 20 point lead at home (Sprint Center). What was obvious was that we had no real ability to score against long and athletic players. Perry was overmatched. Cliff lacked any go to move. Traylor and Lucas were simply underskilled. I reiterate -- this was obvious. And it was posted about regularly. This was not a secret. We could not reliably score inside. I took some gruff for suggesting that Self was delusional in this pursuit. Nothing has changed. Just more evidence. It took coach Self until after the TT game on February 10 to finally abandon it as our go to offensive focus. Oddly, the pound the post approach permitted our excellent three point shooting to shine to a great degree. Not to the degree it could have, to be sure, but as we've seen, much better than the alternative.
Self Is Right And The Three Point Shot: My position on this is regularly misconstrued. My sole reason to believe that we should increase our three point attempts to 20-25 per game was because we couldn't score efficiently inside. I spoke of "this Kansas team", being sure not to include other groups. Now, I have and always will believe that the post feed is the best offensive weapon when you can score effectively in that manner. But when you score inside regularly, that creates a more difficult argument. No doubt that coach Self is right, though. It's better to have reliable scoring near the bucket. But that does not have to be to the exclusion of the next best offensive weapon, the three point shot. And three point shooting, actually, can be reliable. Much thanks to @tundrahok. We had discussion on game day about three point attempts. And actually, as he pointed out, our three point shooting percentage increased the more we shot them. It was not a weapon of diminishing returns for this Kansas team. Really, it's just a reasonable part of a balanced offensive attack. Look at WSU. Did that look like a team that lived and died by the three (a phrase no one has endorsed)? They only shot 20, and made 10. That was just a part of their attack. As we recognized way early in the season, it was necessary for this team to achieve its offensive peak to capitalize on the three point shot. And that was the discussion -- how could this team maximize its offensive output? Self refused to capitalize on our teams' greatest weapon, which was perimeter shooting. A massive failure.
What Self Should Have Done: This is really very simple. I said this early on -- simply continue with your high/low offense. Embrace the three point shot. Work hard to scheme to get open three point looks from the high/low. That type of attack, premised on outside shooting, would then open up the inside for easier post feed scores. Self's decision to increase our efforts to drive the ball, instead of post feeds, might not have been necessary. But it certainly could have been part of a two pronged attack. Drive and shoot the three point shot. We saw that with WSU. And folks, all it would have required were some tweaks to our current offense. Work in some rule variations in our motion offense that could have been "add ons" in practice. What is amazing is that our normal offense does create three point looks. Using Perry at the high post to drive, but also as a pick and pop four -- not difficult. Remember Andrew White in that role vs. Belmont in 2012? But the bottom line is that Self could have, and should have, embraced the perimeter game and should have embraced his shooters. Create looks as part of your normal offense. The key is being balanced, and shading your offense to your strengths. Folks argued against too much reliance on the three. But we ended up being too reliant on the drive. This made things easy on opposing coaches. The fact is, Self simply did not want to do that. And logic had nothing to do with it. Nothing.
NCAA Reality, Just For Fun: Here is reality on three point attempts - In 2014, Wisconsin made the Final Four shooting 21 three pointers per game during the tourney. Florida shot 16 per game during the tourney, also getting to the Final Four. And, of course, UConn shot 19 threes per game during the tourney, on its way to winning the national title. During the season, Wisconsin shot 20.7 threes per game and UConn shot 18.52 threes per game. Florida shot 17.74. In 2013, Michigan shot 21 per game in the tourney on its way to beating KU and getting to the title game. Michigan shot 19.71 per game for the season. Wichita St. shot 20 per game on the way to the Final Four during the tourney, and 19.61 per game that season. Syracuse, who also made the Final Four (whose threes were down a bit in the tourney), shot 17.42 per game for the season. Louisville shot 15 per game during the tourney, significantly higher than our rate in our bad ball stretch. They also shot 17.27 per game during the season.
Three Point Reality: The reality is that there are multiple ways to skin a cat. Three point shooting is not a panacea. There is no perfect answer. UK has the horses, they are pounding it inside .. scoring at a miraculous 69.3% at the rim. But they shoot just as many threes as Kansas does (and we score at about 55% -- er, scored). Villanova shot a bunch of threes and got eliminated. Virginia shot very few this season and got eliminated. Again, there is no perfect answer. But I do know that having a disdain for the three pointer limits your possibilities, and thus limits the possibilities for your team. You are closing off a portion of the game that can be exploited, particularly when your team can't play the way you want it to play. This was the reality of the 2014-15 Kansas Jayhawks.
Kansas Offense Vs. WSU: Eleven possessions into the first half, Self dabbled with a four out/one in scheme, and used that scheme much of the second half. However, our four out/one in scheme was really no offense at all. The four out/one in scheme was little more than the weave. Compare to WSU's four out/one in. Our guys would stand around and drive to the hoop. Occasional outside shots. There was nothing within the scheme to get open shots, was there? What we saw was a scheme that did not put players in positions to get open shots. They literally had to create their own looks. If you have any doubt, go back and watch the second half. Here is the key question to ask yourself, "what did coach Self do to put our players in a position to succeed offensively?" Our offense was little more than playground ball -- hand off, look for a lane to drive. The offense we ran was a flat out joke. It's something that can work in bursts. And it has worked at times this season. But the problem is that opposing coaches see the simplicity, and have prepared for it. Wichita St. likely plagiarized the ISU defense. It is the best tool in sports -- note to Self, you can plagiarize. Anyway, WSU did what ISU did against our weave. They simple contracted and shut off driving lanes. One trick pony. Easy. Their defense dominated us. We were live and die by the drive, right? And Self did nothing to enhance the four out/one in look -- nothing. This was a complete failure. It was as if we spent no practice time trying to improve that limited offense and WSU embarrassed us. We looked like a 6th grade rec team out there offensively. Again, simply embarrassing.
Scheming To Create Success: I've mentioned this numerous times. This is a coach's job. Scheme to create success. And in this manner, coach Self has wildly failed on the offensive end. Where does this come from? I go back to Self's quote after the UK game. I felt that it was very telling. Self said, "This game plan crap that everybody talks about; this isn’t football. We play to our strengths, and you don’t just change offenses because the other team is tall." This is at the very heart of Self weakness, his failing. Self doesn't change, he won't change. And we saw it all in vivid HD this season. Self's view of his teams "strengths" is warped. What he meant to say instead of strengths was, "We play the way we play ..." And this is it. We play the way Self wants to play, not the way that capitalizes on his players' strengths.
Scheming to Success II: Ok then, what do I mean here? It means to put your team in the best position to be successful. It's a coach's main job. Create conditions where the players you have at hand can succeed. This is again, where the rubber meets the road. There is a wide, diverse, and deep basketball world out there. Bill Self's offensive world is very thin and limited. We saw WSU on Sunday ... a team whose coach schemed directly to take advantage of their strengths. And pay close attention here -- that team is a lot like ours. Very much like ours. Strong perimeter players, not a dominating post presence. Did you see what WSU did? During this season, I've tried to explain this, I've tried to map out examples, I've tried to reference game sequence. Just re-watch WSU vs. Kansas. Res ipsa loquitur -- the facts speak for themselves. That is the exact offense that this team should have been running this season. But our coach failed us. Coach Self refused to scheme to success. I would say that he failed to recognize this before the season, but I don't know. I think it caught him off guard, how futile we were inside. But here's what I do know -- I (we) recognized this very early on. Bill Self could have easily incorporated elements of WSU's offense into our high/low -- elements to scheme to our strengths. Personally, I think he could have flat switched offenses. But short of that, the tweaks and adjustments would have been easy, if Self was committed to doing so. There are other examples of offenses that are dynamic, that would fit our personnel. Gonzaga is another one. Many, many in the basketball universe.
WSU Offense: I mentioned this above -- did WSU look like a live/die by the three team? Guys, that phrase is silly .. unless you're VMI. And I ain't talking VMI. We're talking basketball. WSU is not a live/die by the three team. Of course not. They only shot 20 and beat us by 16 points. They scored in a lot of different ways. It was a decisive ass kicking. The three point shot was a large part of their offense, but just a part of a balanced attack. Their offense took a team that was less talented, and put them in position to beat a more talented team by 16. That's coaching. Are there any converts here? Are there any of you that didn't believe early, but now believe in this alternative offensive theory? Wichita St. attacked. WSU used the pick and roll. WSU pushed the action with ball screens. WSU created open looks for its three point shooters. And with a small lineup, WSU was able to get looks inside. WSU inverted. WSU did not play tentative on offense. See, the difference is that WSU's offense was an actual offense. It was a motion offense with multiple options, multiple angles, and multiple goals. Compare that to what you saw from Kansas Sunday. It is literally night and day.
High/Low: Of course, Self's real offense is the high/low. That's what we've always run. We couldn't even utilize an effective high/low attack against a midget lineup? We could not get our post players any easy looks inside against undersized opponents? The high/low, though, is a terrific offense. So what went wrong? It's quite simple. We didn't have the personnel to do what coach Self wanted done within his offense. We haven't been able to do that all season. And the simple fact of the matter is that Self's refusal to adjust his scheme, in recognition of this unassailable fact -- an obvious fact that so many saw well before Christmas -- destroyed this season. Self was slow to react. When he did react, he made the wrong decision. And that lies solely on Coach Self's doorstep.
Unfortunately, we had this little Red Pill, Blue Pill discussion last season, at about this time. Just for fun, give it another read and then ask yourself, "what has changed?" Certainly not our NCAA resume.
@joeloveshawks I understand your recoil. But this team had a high level of talented players. Selden a top 20 player, Oubre top 10, Svi an NBA talent, Greene top 40, Graham top 40, Mason was ranked around 75thish, Ellis top 40, Cliff top 5.
With that level of talent, we should win the conference, right? No one compares.
From a talent perspective -- recruiting ratings -- name me 5 teams with more roster talent? Kentucky, Duke and .... exactly.
What were your expectations early in the season? Mid season? When we were 21-4?
The reality is .. harsh reality .. is that we underachieved yet again. As two seeds, the last two seasons, we are bounced in the first weekend. And as a 1 seed in 2013, we lose in the sweet 16.
And it is very sad that many of us, including @nuleafjhawk -- a great Jayhawk fan -- are reduced to being "apathetic" today. A coping mechanism, to be sure.
This is more like a day of mourning.
As we sit here now, we are the farthest away from the next KU basketball game as we could be. It's like being a kid, and waking up on December 26. And as we get older, we don't want time to go by too quickly. Quite a dilemma.
Probably best to take a deep breath, relax, and reflect.
@truehawk93 Duke is a touch young, too. But of all the teams I've seen this season, I think Duke is the second best behind UK. Balanced, great inside out game. Flexible on defense. I can't stand Duke, but it's hard to deny how good they are. Though if KU isn't in it, I'll definitely root for Wisconsin.
@tundrahok Thanks for the analysis ... you know I'm going to cite that!
Everyone enjoy the game. Time to put this Shocker nonsense to rest, and on to Cleveland!