Setting up the live game chat for members...
Oklahoma State at Kansas
6 p.m., Jan. 13, 2015
Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
bskeet
4171 posts
So, this week, @Jesse-Newell tweeted some links and pics of Christian with his mom who I gather is the sister of Lenny Kravitz.. Am I the last person in the world to know this?
Apparently Christian is Lenny's nephew. Who knew?
@jaybate-1.0 If Self threw out his plans, it's going to be a much different matchup with Travis Ford, who I think famously remarked once that "we don't let Kansas run their sh-- (stuff)"
Well, good luck Travis with your game planning. Kansas doesn't have any "stuff" for you to plan against... At least, nothing like what you've seen in the past.
While I don't want to compete with Jesse, I feel kind of the same about the chat features on the other sites.
For the next few games, I'll try to start a chat for all of us. However, I won't be able to be online for the start of every game, so anyone should feel free to start up a thread for game if you don't see one by game time.
@approxinfinity may have some thoughts on how to accommodate live game chats as well..
Energy is picking up with Alexander out there! I like the combination of Alexander and Traylor.
@JayHawkFanToo Maybe they want some of that "luck" stat...
Where is everyone? Watching the UK game?
Looking more and more like a KU team with every game. Barring injuries, we'll be a legitimate contender for conference title eleven.
Love Svi swishing his first 3...
Overall-- I'm liking the defense...
When will we see Svi?
Cliff is looking STRONG :muscle:
Graham already contributing!
@globaljaybird Ok...:-) .... Hanging out here
JAM-JAM! WOW
biggest bummer about that dunk miss: it would have given us a double digit lead early.. Should have some serious separation from this team already, which would have been demoralizing.. but we're letting them think they can play with us.
Ouch! Oubre! That was an ugly missed dunk..
Traylor's drive before the first time out was sweet... Also loved that Oubre ally-oop.
Last game, there was a great chat thread running.. Thought I'd set up in case folks were hanging out here...
@jayhawk-007 Well said!
I'll make sure to test the changes a bit better on Firefox and Chrome next time. i spend most of my time on Safari (Mac) but I do use those other two browsers. I won't be testing IE (For those who have to use that browser, I feel your pain).
@justanotherfan said:
Conference road wins count double.
I agree. A one-point victory on the road should at least get a little asterisk or happy face.
This game was played within about a 10-12 point spread -- meaning Baylor's largest lead was about 8 points and our largest lead was 3 or 4.
Winning tight games on the road often means you've stolen a gem from the opponent.
@jaybate-1.0 Not that hard to do.. Just don't want to make the site RED for the RED Raiders.
.... now the Cowboys are a horse of a different color...
All-- I don't want to bring it back for the TT game for obvious reasons.. But we'll bring it back at some point... (and I'll try not to break things... or revive the down-vote button.. )
@drgnslayr Great post to lead this off and the thread is just more of the great discourse from this community.. Entertaining and educational!
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I totally agree with the observations about Greene and the shots that reminded me of the NBA..
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The upside for this team is great because they will get better on defense as time goes by.. And we can see the improvement on the offensive side.
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Oubre is making the loss of Wiggins much easier. I didn't think it was possible. Obviously, they are different players, but I feel like Oubre's value to the team is becoming comparable. I'd love to see a stat that can assess more of the aggregate contributions of a player for both Wiggins and Oubre.
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KenPom and the "luck" stat started raging after last night's game. The game seemed to hinge on the defense that Oubre played on the inbounds. The call was close and reviewed for several minutes. In the end, we got the call. Apparently there was not enough evidence to overturn the call. Is that LUCK?
BTW: Did anyone notice that the second half seemed to feature mini-runs by different Jayhawks? It started with Traylor who scored our first 7 points of the half to help us take the lead -- all in 2min 15sec span. Mason then scored the next 5 points in a 1 min span. Next, Alexander sandwiched a Traylor layup with two dunks within a 2min span. Greene hit his big shots -- a three and a jumper -- back to back in less than 2 minutes. Frank Mason came back with two buckets in 46 seconds to keep us in the game. At the end it was Selden's heroics: 7 points on three consecutive shots between 3:02 and 1:18 left in the game.
With the exception of one layup by Ellis and Greene's clutch free throws at the end, that was all of the scoring in the second half... Very streaky.
@Jesse-Newell tweeted that this is game had the fewest possessions of a KU game since 97-98 ↗.
While that is amazing, the site that he referenced is even more amazing with a database of stats that allow you to make comparisons or look up records on a lot of : http://dailyjayhawk.com/ ↗ ↗
MBMAP added... compliments of @jaybate-1.0
Just got through this whole, delightful thread... Awesome postings.. I could almost see the game in my mind's eye as I read the comments.
PHOF: The KState cassette reference... That's some serious wit!
Oh, and I'll add MBMAP to the glossary.
A win is a win... The quest for #11 begins on a positive note.
At one point, @approxinfinity had set up a chat tool on the site.. Maybe we should look into that for these kinds of instances.
@approxinfinity Hey-- just saw realized that when I made the update and reverted back to the original theme, it caused this problem with the down vote feature! Sorry everyone! This is the problem with even the playful tweaks.. Hopefully next time I will have this down to a science.
@jaybate-1.0 I'm so glad you like it! It's a short-term thing-- kind of a novelty. After tonight's game, I'll revert to our standard theme, and I'll probably bring it back sometime later this season.
KU Buckets community:
I think we discussed the prospect of giving the site a new skin at times during the season -- kind of like how the team tries different jerseys from time to time -- just to shake things up.
Well, I've modified the site theme slightly to create a "Crimson" theme. It's temporary... but thought it might be fun to make things a touch different for a while.
Paul Pierce in a post-game interview sounding like a coach...
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12055979/paul-pierce-says-washington-wizards-improve-defensive-habits ↗ ↗
"You can learn a lot of lessons from losses, but you also learn lessons from winning," Pierce said. "Hopefully we have better urgency on defense as this stretch comes up. We got Phoenix, Chicago, and of course New York and then our [Western Conference] trip. So we got to build better habits before this trip."
For just a moment, I wondered what if Pierce was an assistant to Self in a few years... hmmmm.
Just my opinion, but the body of an 18-19yr old is not prepared for the NBA schedule (except in RARE cases). One-and-done is doing no better to protect kids than the previous policy.
what are the chances that Devonte will be a medical red-shirt?
Yesterday, there were times where I felt we had some interesting matchups that were confounding to Utah and might be tough for others.. At the very least, there's a pretty dramatic style difference between Mason and Selden running point.
I kind of like the contrast because it seems like it could be tough for the defense to adjust.
The lineup that I thought was most interesting was Selden with tall wings - Greene and Oubre and in the paint was Ellis and Traylor. That's a pretty athletic crew with lots of scoring threats pretty much anywhere on the floor. You can sub Svi with either Oubre or Greene and keep the height and the shooting threat.
I see the mixtures that Self has available as a unique asset.
yep.. pretty much nailed it.
As though the basketball gods were following this thread.. they gave us a game to fuel the debate: Are we good or lucky with a 3pt win over Utah?
I want to say it was more goodness than luck.... but whew. Who cares? It's a big win!
I officially believe this team can be a sweet 16 team... and may develop into an elite 8 team... Potential to be a final four team when they are hitting on all cylinders, as they did in the first half.
@JayHawkFanToo & @HighEliteMajor
You both make great points here. I tend to be attracted to the sports analytics because it's an interesting way to look at the game and suggests that we might be able to predict outcomes more accurately. But there are lots of human factors (peaking at the right time, a half-court shot that goes in, a bad call at a bad time, an injury, a suspension, a breakup with a girl-friend...) that influence the game and confound analytical models.
This thread is a microcosm of the debate that has raged in the wake of Moneyball.
In short-- you've illuminated some possible holes in the luck metric. I think all the assumptions you have questioned are fair. To me, that means they need to do some more work on it, not that luck doesn't exist.
@konkeyDong called it "noise"... but whatever you call it, I believe there are statistical irregularities which are more prone to effect the outcome of a game when games are close than when they are not.
The biggest issue I now have with KenPom's Luck metric (and I acknowledge there may be many), is the assumption that 10points is the threshold for the "luck" effect.
This "luck" metric does not take into account style of play (as @HighEliteMajor eloquently explained) which could result in games with fewer possessions where the score might be in the 51-70 range vs teams that play a style that generates more possessions and scores in the 71-90 range. Games played in the 51-70 range are statistically going to have fewer points in the margin of victory than games in the 71-90. Put another way.. a 9pt victory in a 51-60 final score is a greater margin of victory than a 9pt victory in an 81-90 game. The luck metric doesn't seem to adjust for this.
Anyway, I appreciate the perspectives and critical thinking on this thread. You've given me a deeper understanding and encouraged me to think differently.
@JayHawkFanToo Clearly we need @KenPom on our site so he can explain his logic! ;-)
:-) hey, regarding the luck thing-- I'm not saying we were lucky to get to 7-1... I'm just repeating what @Jesse-Newell 's article suggested.. I think he's citing a KenPom.com statistic/metric. And I was trying to offer some plausible reasons why we might be "lucky".
And-- Mea culpa on the 0-1 record against top 25 teams.. That was my mistake. Several of those teams were in the top 25 earlier in the season.
Newell: Jayhawks have been 'lucky' in 2014-15 ↗
@Crimsonorblue22 True.... but I saw a few good assists. Passing seems better when Svi is on the floor.. Selden has shown the ability to find someone open as well.
@JayHawkFanToo You're right-- We've played some of these teams when they are ranked and MSU is still in a poll that I missed.. So we are better against Top 25 competition.
My point is -- THIS YEAR -- Utah doesn't appear to be as much of an inferior opponent as folks might think based on their name... just as Florida, MSU, G'Town aren't as superior... But they are good competition and we are starting to earn our ranking.
More importantly, I see our defense improving and our passing/assists improving (still erratic on turnovers). And of course our 3pt shooting and free throws have been much better than the exhibitions and the early games.
@DoubleDD That belongs in our quotes thread ;-)
@justanotherfan said:
"Luck" tends to even out over the course of the basketball season.
True... And yet @Jesse-Newell 's story indicates that we tend to be a bit 'luckier' than the average team over the course of Bill Self's tenure. His only speculation is that KU is "tougher" than other teams. I think it might be because we play more games in AFH than other teams ;-)
This may be empirical evidence to a home court advantage that is greater than others.. I'll call it the AFH-Factor. It has to be worth a couple points in every game we play at home.
(posted elsewhere, but this thread looks like a better place for my comment)
Some good signs:
1: 'Solving' a physical opponent (a formula that will be necessary to repeat as soon as Saturday, and later against Texas and others)
2: A team with balanced scoring: [PPG] Ellis 14.4, Mason 10.6, Alexander 9.6, Selden 9.3,
3: Winning without Traylor (and Svi, for all intents and purposes)
4: Repeatedly coming back against an opponent on the road
5: Oubre's positive attitude: “I love my team,” Oubre said. “We showed some signs down the stretch that we’re going to be great.”
- Lots of room for improvement, yet 7-1
A cautionary note or two:
1: KU is the third "luckiest team" this year ↗
2: KU is facing a true test on Saturday. Despite beating some good names (Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida and Georgetown), the reality is that KU is 0-1 against top 25 teams this year. Utah is 1-1 against top 25.
I'm repeating myself but the Utah game will speak volumes about what to expect from this team.
Some good signs:
1: 'Solving' a physical opponent (a formula that will be necessary to repeat as soon as Saturday, and later against Texas and others)
2: A team with balanced scoring: [PPG] Ellis 14.4, Mason 10.6, Alexander 9.6, Selden 9.3,
3: Winning without Traylor (and Svi, for all intents and purposes)
4: Repeatedly coming back against an opponent on the road
5: Oubre's positive attitude: “I love my team,” Oubre said. “We showed some signs down the stretch that we’re going to be great.”
- Lots of room for improvement, yet 7-1
A cautionary note or two:
1: KU is the third "luckiest team" this year ↗
2: KU is facing a true test on Saturday. Despite beating some good names (Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida and Georgetown), the reality is that KU is 0-1 against top 25 teams this year. Utah is 1-1 against top 25.
I'm repeating myself but the Utah game will speak volumes about what to expect from this team.
@JayHawkFanToo said:
Also, the question was asked to the selection committee head...if the two Big 12 teams would have been Texas and Oklahoma, instead of Baylor and TCU, would the result have been different?
Mack Brown was also asked this and he indicated that the names make a difference. He said he had seen preferential treatment given to Texas first hand when he was coaching there.
Yes. A threat he repeatedly delivered during that game.
One guy who couldn't forget the UK loss was Dick Vitale who mentioned it about a dozen times during the broadcast of the KU-MSU game.
Keep gellin'!
It feels like they are getting a bit better-- running sets.. crisp, opportunistic passing. I think they are getting to the point where they can manufacture points by running their stuff.
But let's not fool ourselves... these two teams were not the caliber of teams we'll see in the top half of the B12, and not nearly as familiar with our 'stuff'. The shooting % from 3pt range is very encouraging. Alexander's improvement is most encouraging.
Even if Oubre takes some time to develop, if we have Alexander playing solid and Svi growing in confidence and shooting potency, we can be a contender for the B12 again.