@KUinLA Predictable.
Do you only show up after losses to blast Self? Has anyone EVER seen this guy (or girl, idk I guess) come in here and offer anything constructive, or contribute to a debate, or to celebrate a victory?
I haven't, dating back to the kusports site..
Part of the enjoyment of being a KU fan is we win a heck of a lot more than we lose. Feel free to embrace the good once in awhile too.
Or not. See you after the next loss.
@HighEliteMajor Disagree on a few points:
First, OSU was defending the 3/perimeter well. You'll never get me to believe that Self went into the locker room and said "well, we're up by 11 shooting the 3 well, so STOP! What are you doing? We're an inside-out, hi-low team!" Or whatever equivalent that you think was said to discourage the team from shooting 3s.
We think Greene to be some unconscience assassin from the outside, but when did he turn down those two opportunities? After he missed his first one. I could see it in his body language that he second-guessed himself out of at least one of the attempts.
Is Selden really trending up? His outside shooting is, no doubt. But aside from that, is ANY part of his game what we thought it would be? A top 10, McD's all-American out of high school, and he's been reduced to guy who can't find offense inside the arc, can't handle the ball, and is inconsistent on defense. Didn't grab a single rebound today. Sorry, the outside shooting is nice, but we've got that covered with other guys. That's not what this team needs from him.
Missed free throws is a part of why we lost this game. Is it the sole reason? Of course not, but the misses hurt us. Frank missing the front end of a one-and-one in the second half was tantamount to another turnover given the circumstances.
I do agree we function better when shooting the ball from 3. But you can't deny that teams can game plan to stop or slow that down. That has been one of my fears as we have transitioned to this type of team. Other teams in the conference have taken notice, or do so within the game, and once that is taken away from us we are lost.
So my question is: does Self have enough in his basketball repetoire to expand the offense playing to maximize looks from the outside? It might not be a question of him wanting to, it might be a question of him feeling confident to be able to do so adequately. Last season when debating whether we should switch to a zone defense I made the argument that zones are not as easy as saying "go guard this area", and that to play zone competently you have to practice it and be coached it just like anything else, and that maybe Self didn't have that in his bag of tricks. How many years have we seen Faylor's inept zone despite what should have been adequate personnel to execute it? Probably because Scott Drouche is a lousy coach and can't teach it properly. It could be the same thing with this "outside-in" approach. You can't just say "stand outside and shoot when you're open." You have to run offense to get those looks, to screen and have the right motions. Could be that Self is just not that comfortable teaching it and so looks must come from our normal offense.
Anyway, just theorizing, but I don't think he "doesn't like three pointers" or thinks they're "the enemy". I just think there may be limitations on his coaching ability.
@MoonwalkMafia Me too!
@MoonwalkMafia Are we sure that's what Mason said? Or all he said?
@Hawk8086 @nuleafjhawk Winning the league is still a probability IMO. No need for prayers asking for divine intervention. ISU is the only real threat. Texas was supposed to be coming for our throne, but they imploded and have 6 losses. The wheels are coming off for WVU, who is 2-4 against the rest of the conference not named Texas Tech & TCU. Faylor is still coached by Scott Drouche, so they're not a legit threat. OU with 4 losses and still 2 games against ISU and one game against us, so realistically they'll end up with at least 5 losses.
So we're still in good position to win the Big 12. But the NCAA tourney...better tighten some things up!
@Hawk8086 I actually thought Greene was doing more stuff right than his teammates. He did get caught a couple of times with his hand down, but overall I thought his defense was decent. There was one time he got caught by himself having to guard 2 guys on the perimeter in the half-court set, and I thought "where are his teammates?!?" I think his ball handling is superior to Selden's (we saw Greene used as the second guy in the backcourt against the OSU press as opposed to Selden). He doesn't seem to panic.
No reason you can't have Greene AND Oubre in the game at the same time. Greene is essentially a tall 2-guard on offense.
I still can't believe what happened in Stillwater. How did we lose that game?
Free throw disparity? Obviously I'm biased but I thought the officiating was horrendous. Perry seemed like he was mauled every time he went up inside, yet there was seldom anything called.
Of course it doesn't matter as much if you're getting foul calls when you can't make your free throws...
Turnovers? Probably a significant factor. I'd be interested to know the points off turnovers.
We looked like we had very poor offense once they started defending the 3 better. This has been a fear of mine all along while discussing the "outside-in" approach we hoped this team would take. We made 10-20 threes; I think if you would have asked most fans before the game they'd take that in a heartbeat and chalked this one up as a win. Yet in the second half the open looks were harder to come by, and when they didn't come we looked lost.
Where was Oubre? Why did he play only 14 minutes? In the second half when the outside looks dried up having his offense off the dribble could have been huge. Yet he languished away on the bench.
As much as I love Mason, he played horribly in stretches. Missing free throws, haphazardly driving to the hoop in transition and coming up empty, shooting his mouth off and getting a technical, etc. Minus his three 3s, a pretty poor game (so much for my hawk to rock).
Selden continues to demonstrate he's lost his hops. He had a shot at the rim where it should have been an easy dunk. Instead we came up empty. He had a Naadir Tharpe moment getting his pocket picked at half-court. Continues to be a liability handling pressure. Like Mason, minus his outside shooting, not a great game (at least on the offensive end of the court).
Jamari with 6 turnovers...ugh.
Perry, despite my contention he was hacked, still has to be better than 4-12 from the field. Soft against contact.
Very frustrating game. Moving on I suppose.
@JayHawkFanToo We can agree to disagree, sure. But I think we're arguing two different tracks. My point, my initial point, was that Zimmerman does not need the exposure in order to achieve his goals. If we're to believe that his primary goals are playing time and being a OAD and getting college out of the way and getting to the NBA as quickly as possible, going to UNLV doesn't hurt him.
Does Calipari disagree with me that a top 10 high school recruit isn't already on pro scouts' radars? I doubt it.
I am in full agreement that elite schools like Kentucky, Duke, & KU can sell the exposure angle. They can also roll out the red carpet for incoming recruits that lesser schools (i.e. UNLV) can't. They have better facilities. And they have better coaches. The exposure thing is a factor, but I believe it is not as high on the list, especially for a guy like Zimmerman who again, doesn't need the exposure as much to ascend to the next level.
So I did this a few games ago, and then kind of backed off because it seems like a lot of people like starting threads regarding the next upcoming game. Absolutely love @wrwlumpy 's threads with the famous alums and the photo montages. But this morning I said to hell with it and decided to put it out there again, so here goes:
Prediction: KU wins by 12. And the only reason I have it that close is because we've had some trouble closing out games. But I think while it might be close early, even through a half, I think we have a double digit lead most of the second half.
Hawk to Rock: Frank Mason III. Statistically he might not have the best game; that honor might go to Perry or Brannen. But I think the job he'll do on Forte today will be impressive.
@KUSTEVE I got the same request to "come back" to KUSports.
I actually go there often...for the articles and to listen to the interviews. But I have no desire to participate in any discussions over there.
@JayHawkFanToo said:
I am referring to the less heralded players that bloom in college and it take longer to get discovered because they do not have the exposure.
Exactly. This was exactly my point when I said "the exposure factor is only relevant if you need to get noticed." We aren't talking about less heralded players here. We're talking about Zimmerman. He doesn't need to get discovered. So while exposure might feed his ego, it isn't a selling point for Zimmerman getting PT, improving his stock, being an OAD, and going high in the 2016 draft. All things which seem more important to him than being seen on TV more often during what he hopes is one year of college. So I would disagree that it is a BIG selling point in terms of recruiting Zimmerman.
@JayHawkFanToo So are you stating that UNLV players aren't getting drafted because they're just as good but not getting the exposure?
The other possibility, and more likely, is that they haven't had the talent that elite programs have, and thus are not getting drafted.
Yes you get exposure at elite level programs. I'm not saying that's not true. But if you're a blue-chip, top 10 high school player it's not going to matter as much where you go. Again, pro scouts know about Zimmerman already. I mean...look at Emmanual Mudiay. He's playing in freakin' China! Talk about a time difference...yet look at mock draft boards. Still top 5 (most have him at 2 or 3).
Just sayin'
@JayHawkFanToo Didn't hurt Anthony Bennett a couple years ago.
I think the exposure factor is only relevant if you need to get noticed. Pro scouts have already noticed Zimmerman, so he'll get watched regardless of where he goes to school.
@REHawk Count me in as being in 100% agreement with needing to rest Frank more.
I've seen it thrown out there a couple of times the last few days how "Devonte is only a freshman and is still making freshman mistakes." To that I will only say that Frank Mason is not playing perfect ball either. We saw him drive to the hoop on a fast break 1 on 3 and came up empty rather than pull it back or pass it to a trailing teammate. He missed an open Brannen Greene on the perimeter. He wasn't flawless in his handling of the end of the game ISU pressure. Heck, on the first possession of the game he turned the ball over with a poor entry pass into the post. Now, I'm as big of a Mason fan as there is; don't take my nitpicking a few plays as me being down on the guy. My point is I think some fans have put him on a pedestal and have blinders on to his mistakes, yet are overly critical of Devonte. Graham is a superb back-up, freshman or not. His assist to turnover rate is spectacular; better than Mason's. His on-ball defense isn't on par with Frank's, but it's solid and it creates more turnovers. In short, there's really no reason to be playing Mason 37 mpg.
@globaljaybird I don't recall the times, but yes there were a couple of instances where it looked like he had a definite mean streak showing. Loved it!
I have no idea about the benches of UK & Duke, but my guess is there will probably be at least one from each school's bench to jump.
I was looking at mock drafts earlier this morning while posting on the recruiting thread, and all the mock draft boards I saw still had Cliff as a 1st round pick. Not in the lottery mind you, but not so low that I think he would have to concern himself with falling out of the 1st round at this point. I'm torn about 50-50 as to whether I think he'll make the jump or not. Obviously, I feel another year in college to work on his back-to-the-basket game and possibly develop a face-up jumper would be best, but like Jay Bilas says "some of these guys will turn pro before they're found out." Being drafted on potential is almost always better than being drafted as a known quantity, because almost no one lives up to the hype. The longer Cliff stays in college, the more he will be drafted as a known quantity and less on potential.
I disagree about the job Coach K has done this season. If it were Self and he had the resume Coach K has this season, we'd be explaining away the losses on these boards as a young team being inconsistent, how this is to be expected with this much "green wood", how obviously Rasheed Sulaimon was a distraction and now that he's been dismissed from the team it will lead to better chemistry, etc. As I detailed in the thread about how our season will end, while discussing potential #1 seeds I posted how they've beaten Wisconsin, Louisville, and Virginia, all on the road. Consider also that UK has had some very close calls in the SEC with their 9 OAD/TADs, and the ACC is an infinitely tougher conference right now. Worst coaching job? Nah, I wouldn't say that.
Either Jam Tray gets a hair cut, or he gets the tape from the Texas game and makes sure every hair is in the identical place to where it was then.
Brannen is a stud, and I sincerely hope he continues to get more minutes this year and next year has the opportunity to start if Kelly leaves.
@wissoxfan83 I like the Badgers. To me they are probably one of the top 4 teams in the country. They definitely pass the eye test. My only question is will they have a resume befitting of a #1 seed, especially with so many teams currently bunched up around them. Their biggest RPI wins are Oklahoma (RPI #18 ) and Georgetown (RPI #20), and we've beaten both of those teams. They do have one more resume builder on their schedule at Maryland, but that's it for top 25 RPI games (Iowa & Ohio St. are currently ranked in the polls, but Iowa's RPI is 51 and Ohio St. is 35).
The Badgers have been hurt by a down Big 10 this year. Michigan & Michigan St. are both nowhere near the marquee names on the schedule they have been in recent years. Same with Indiana. Even Ohio St. has dropped down a notch from the top-10 team they were just a couple years ago.
Of course they could very well win out, which with 2 losses it would be difficult to deny them. But Arizona only has two losses and Gonzaga with one loss will probably be the #1 and #2 seeds out west, Virginia with one loss can probably afford another and still be in the driver's seat. And of course...us with only 3 losses but the #1 RPI and #1 SOS.
So it will probably come down to how those 3 teams finish out the season.
If you're looking for recruiting information, better give a shout-out to @konkeyDong. That guy is this site's Paul Biancardi. He's the most in-the-know.
I've stated before that my preference would be no highly ranked, OAD types on the perimeter. Even if we lose Oubre, who is in my opinion the most likely to jump, I love a perimeter rotation next year of Mason, Graham, Selden, Greene, & Svi. No reason to mess with that. However, we know Self is going to keep recruiting. He never wants to get caught off-guard again like he was following the departures of both Morris Twins and Selby.
I do want us to keep going after post players. My preferences would be Zimmerman, Ivan Rabb, & Cheick Diallo, in that order. We've got Bragg, who is a great get. As HEM said, the perfect recruit. But he's 6'9" (maybe, if not exaggerated), and I'd like to see us grab a shot blocker.
As to the logistics of it all and fitting players on the roster, I think the likely order of us losing players is Oubre, Mickelson, Svi, Cliff, & Selden. I think Oubre coming out makes the most sense, not because he couldn't use another year of college but his draft stock should be the highest and I think he is the most ready (not that he is ready, but closest to). Mickelson could also leave via transfer if he graduates this year (this will be his 4th year in college: 2 at Arkansas, sat out last year, eligible this year) and would be immediately able to play elsewhere under those circumstances. Playing time hasn't come for him this year, and with only one year of eligibility left I would think he would seriously consider moving on rather than gamble on cracking a rotation next year that might not lose anybody but could add multiple blue chippers. I think Svi going back to the Ukraine is the next most likely scenario. I don't have any insider info on this nor have I read anything to make me believe it's true, I just have a gut feeling. Cliff leaving I think is the next likely, just based on high school hype. He probably will be able to sneak into the first round based solely on that; most mock draft boards still have him as a first rounder. Selden isn't currently listed on any of the main draft boards I checked, either in the first or second rounds. That could be because the services just don't expect him to make the jump, but him coming out would be a huge mistake at this point. He could still elevate his stock this season, but it seems improbable this late in the game to go to not listed to projected first rounder.
@cragarhawk I see your point, and I agree it will be a travesty. Part of the problem is we don't have the marquee wins, or at least the perceived marquee wins, like a lot of other programs in contention for #1 seeds have. Consider the following teams resumes:
Kentucky. Obviously the crushing victory over us (as you say, the #1 RPI team). Undefeated. No-brainer.
Duke. Wins over Wisconsin, Louisville, and previously unbeaten Virginia. Oh, and all those wins were on the road! Resume building games remaining include Notre Dame and 2 games against UNC.
Unless Duke finishes with I'd say...3 or more losses than we do (currently both teams have 3), I'd say they're a lock along with Kentucky. So that leaves 2 left. Other teams vying for consideration
Arizona. Wins against Gonzaga and Utah. Only real resume builder left on schedule is return trip to Utah.
Virginia. Wins against VCU, UNC, Maryland. Can still improve resume with 2 games against Louisville.
Gonzaga. Weakest of the teams in consideration. No wins against the top 20 RPI. No remaining games against ranked teams. Thank goodness for the loss to Arizona or we might have another Wichita St on our hands - an undefeated team waltzing into the tourney without having played anybody and gifted a #1 seed.
Villanova. Win over VCU. Nothing great left on their schedule (away games at Georgetown and Butler).
Wisconsin. Another weak resume. Biggest RPI wins are neutral site wins over Georgetown and Oklahoma back in November. Bad loss against Rutgers.
And here's our resume:
I think the committee will give a #1 seed to either Gonzaga or Arizona and stick them out west. That leaves one remaining #1 seed. Right now I think it's Virginia's to lose, with one loss and games against Louisville plus the ACC tourney where they could draw top 20 RPI opponents Duke, Louisville, UNC, and Maryland.
What hurt us is both Michigan St. and Florida having down years. Obviously it didn't hurt us too much; we are still the #1 team in the RPI. But those wins don't carry the same luster as they do a lot of other years.
I think if geography was not a factor, we'd be in consideration for the fourth #1 seed. But since it probably is I think we can take the west's #1 seed out of consideration. Which is fine with me. The last thing I'd want is a repeat of '07, where we were the #1 seed out west and UCLA was the #2 seed, and we essentially played a road game in the elite 8 against the Bruins.
@joeloveshawks I think you're spot on in your assessment of Cliff. He's not going to learn a bunch of back-to-the basket moves that transform him into Wayne Simien this season. He's not going to develop a face-up jumper he can hit consistently. Those things will only come with many reps during the off-season.
That being said, he can still improve this season. The game could still slow down for him and situations become familiar enough to him to where he is simply reacting rather than thinking. This is what is preventing him from playing more minutes. This is what is causing him to foul with such frequency. Remember TRob his freshman year? Kind of the same thing.
Now TRob didn't really start figuring it out until his sophomore season, but he was also playing less than half as much as Cliff is. TRob was the 4th big, behind Cole and both Morris twins. He averaged 7.2 mpg. Cliff is averaging 18.5 mpg, which puts him at 3rd among the bigs. So Cliff is getting substantially more on the job training, and my hope is that it does finally "click" for him. His scoring might not go up all that much, but that's not all that big of a deal to me.
I've said all along that Cliff is the only player that can be paired with Perry to make Perry better. Perry needs a true low post presence alongside him in the post to optimize his game. Perry can't be placed on the low blocks all game long. Traylor is not a low-block player. Lucas lacks the skill to draw enough attention down low. Cliff is the only one who can take up space in the post and allow Perry the freedom to play the type of game that maximizes his abilities. Cliff can do the dirty work down low - defend and rebound - so that it doesn't fall on Perry and take its toll on him. And Cliff must be accounted for down low by the defense, because while he may not have a lot of scoring moves or shooting range, he can get the ball and power to the hoop. No one else on this team can do that regularly. This is the main reason why I feel that Cliff "figuring it out" and being able to be depended on to play more minutes is the key to this season. Not because of the direct benefits Cliff offers, but because of the ancillary benefit of getting the most out of Perry. Like Self says, when he's on Perry is our best player. A consistent, productive Cliff would help him be "on" more often, imo.
This is to say nothing of the fact that I think it is pretty unlikely that any team can win 6 games in March without at least one legit low-post guy. Cliff is that guy. No one else can be. Consider how he played against Texas, then try to imagine winning that game without him. Against Texas' big front line. Now flash forward to the tournament and say we run into someone with that size. Like Stanford last year. Or Kentucky.
The perimeter play is solid. I don't worry about that, even when figuring in a poor shooting night. So I disagree that our perimeter play is what a Final 4 run will hinge on. I would say that our perimeter play is the foundation from which such a run can be built on. But hinge on? I think it much more hinges on us needing a solid performance in the post and whether anyone can deliver one. We know Cliff is capable - again, the Texas game. Now, can he do it in March? Will he be able to play well enough to give him 25-30 minutes?
It's questions like these that make me wish there were bigger teams in the Big 12 for Cliff to cut his teeth against.
I think it ends in a loss. I think we can win a national championship, but I think that is a low possibility.
I would think with an elite 8 I wouldn't feel like we underachieved. I'd be disappointed, but it wouldn't be one of the tournament failures that we point to like VCU, UNI, etc.
I would be happy with a Final 4.
As @wissoxfan83 said, relying heavily on 3s can lead to early exits (Duke knows all about this), and even if Cliff progresses enough to give us another legit 25+ mpg post presence, I still see us being outed by a bigger team should we go cold from the outside. Something that might play into that is that it seems teams struggle shooting from the outside due to the cavernous shooting backgrounds of the larger venues where games are held at as you go deeper into the tournament.
I don't think we'll get bounced out too early, simple because for the first time in a few seasons we have exceptional guard play, particularly at the PG spot. We're also very deep on the perimeter, so we can afford a bad night from one or two of our starters (Selden and/or Oubre) and replace them with quality back-ups (Greene and/or Graham).
So I guess I'd say sweet 16 should be our basement, ground floor of an elite 8, top floor of a Final 4, with an outside shot to hit our ceiling and win a national championship.
I'll say the same thing I said at the time of the trade: if you're Cleveland and have a second shot with Lebron to bring a title to the much maligned city, you take it. If they win just one championship, it was worth it. To bring a title to that town...it would be akin to the players that finally broke the Red Sox curse. They will be heroes in that city forever. Lebron isn't going to opt out. He'd be vilified all over again and cast as sport's biggest villain for leaving his hometown twice without a ring! He's a sensitive guy and doing it once definitely weighed on him.
Now Love could decide to leave, but as @JayHawkFanToo said, if they have a good run he'll be back. I don't think there's another team situated as nicely as Cleveland is both from a competitive standpoint as well as available cap space. There's probably two, three max that are close, but none have Lebron and I think that keeps him there barring a playoff implosion. The only two teams that I think would be enticing to him would be Golden St. and the Clippers, just because Love is a California guy. The Lakers and Kings are out because they're league bottom feeders at the moment. The Clippers are pretty much set at PF with Blake Griffin, so they're doubtful to get into the Love sweepstakes. That leaves Golden St. They don't appear to have the cap space going forward, so unless they get creative with their roster and make some moves (which, why would they? They have the best record in the league now) it appears unlikely that they'll land him either. My money is on him staying in Cleveland.
One more thing regarding Love, of course his numbers were going to go down! He was no longer the man. He's playing second fiddle (or third fiddle, behind Kyrie) for the first time in his career. It's a new system not designed solely to maximize his stats. Doesn't mean he's having an off year or a down year. I told everybody that it would be comparable to when Bosh left Toronto to go to Miami. Not sure who these people are that are questioning the trade, other than KU fans with loyalty (and therefore some bias) towards Wiggins and ESPN who is obviously not approaching it from a reporting standpoint but more from a "let's get more clicks on our website" standpoint.
@benshawks08 I hope you're right. I'm very high on Svi and his ceiling. I definitely don't see Self "letting him go".
And you're right also in that he could compete with Greene for the starting role next year. But two things: 1) Greene's defense has vastly improved. He's not great, but he's more than competent now as opposed to last season and even early this season. And 2) Svi himself looked lost on defense earlier this season. In particular, it was his inability to handle ball screens that eventually forced him to the bench and paved the way for Oubre to ascend to the starting role. So Svi will have to improve his own defense before he can overtake Greene. Can he do improve enough in practice alone while Greene sees court time, plus get Hudy-ized in the off-season? Perhaps.
Regardless, I would be happy with next year's perimeter if we don't land anybody and we keep Svi.
@ParisHawk Yes I remember. I was sad for him.
And it's an either/or as to if he was the 8th or 9th. By the end of the season, Cole was probably the 8th. I prefer to break it down to perimeter vs. bigs. Stewart was the 5th perimeter player, while Cole was the 4th big.
@benshawks08 First off, it was Roderick Stewart. Little wasn't on the '08 team. But you are right, it was primarily a 7 man rotation.
To your point about Svi, I think you're making my point for me. I'm in full agreement that this team is too deep for him to get minutes. That's not exactly a rock solid argument for him to stick around. Quite the contrary. And my point was does he want to stay another year and in all probability only move into the rotation as the 5th perimeter player (or 8th man as Roderick Stewart was in '08)? And that's assuming Self doesn't recruit some stud wing player that could potentially force him to the end of the bench again.
I'm not saying I'm sure he's gone. I just think the writing may be on the wall.
@ParisHawk Did they ever? :)
@drgnslayr @justanotherfan Yeah I referenced Frank's legs late last night. His shooting is down, which is usually a good indicator that he doesn't have the same legs under him.
The problem is two-fold: Self has supreme confidence in Mason, and Graham is a freshman. I think Self would like to get Mason some rest. On some level he has to know he should. But come game-time he reverts back to what he's most comfortable with, and he looks down the bench at baby-face Devonte and says to himself "eh...maybe not."
Regarding Svi, HEM and I speculated awhile back that Self may know he's not coming back, or at least not likely to come back, and therefore Self has stopped letting him develop with playing time. Which is too bad, but you kind of have to wonder where he would fit in next year too. I'd say we're likely to lose Oubre, and that's it (on the perimeter). We're already clamoring for more minutes for Graham and Greene. I just think he's likely to only move into the spot of 5th perimeter player next year, which could mean steady minutes, but we've also seen in years past where it only means scraps.
Of course, the way the schedule set up this year and the top-to-bottom toughness of the Big 12 has not lent itself to either having the luxury of resting your top guys nor developing the end of the bench.
@ParisHawk My point was in reference to HEM's classic anti-Fizzou rants over the years. Not sure what would be worse for Mrs. HEM to call him: a Tiger, or an Antler. Regardless of how many over par a fellow Jayhawk fan may shoot, not sure anything justifies being called Tiger!
@jaybate-1.0 I would think Mrs. HEM would know better than to call him "Tiger" :)
@HighEliteMajor More good stuff. Regarding coaching being important and particularly in reference to the Superbowl, something that I find hilarious was how at the beginning of the telecast either Michaels or Collinsworth were talking about how Belichik had said "the players were going to decide the game", and Collinsworth remarked "that's how it should be." Um...
You say that Mason and Graham could play a lot together against WVU, potentially leading to less minutes for Greene and Oubre, then say that could be dangerous. Do you mean that you don't have a lot of confidence if we aren't playing one or the other, or both, at their current clip? If so, interesting. I've already stated my confidence in Graham. However, if Mason continues to be ineffective shooting the ball it does potentially mean we have only one reliable outside shooter in the game at any given time (Graham's 3-pt % is good, but his attempts are pretty low, making me wonder if he can be relied upon for such offense or if his 3s are simply a nice bonus at this point). That could spell trouble, but maybe not. Regardless, I'm very excited for that game to see how it plays out. But again, I have it penciled in for a loss, and I'm hoping that if that's the case there isn't too much of an overreaction on these boards.
Great game. A few of my own musings:
Just a couple of games ago we were debating the merits of cutting Selden's minutes, perhaps even removing him from the starting line-up. After back-to-back good performances against the kitties and the 'clones, maybe he's OK where he's at. I will say this - his offensive success is heavily reliant on him knocking down treys, so in that respect we can still entertain the idea of Greene cutting into his playing time. I think what I would like to see is for Self to stick with Selden, but then to quickly switch plans if he's struggling, rather than letting Wayne labor and the team suffer. Go with the hot hand or whatever the situation calls for. This team has too many talented options. For the past couple of games though, it's been nice to see Wayne lighting it up.
Speaking of the redistribution of minutes, it might be time to start easing up on Mason's. He's had some pretty paltry shooting performances over our last 5 wins (the exception being an 8-12 night against TCU), hasn't hit a 3 in the last 4 games, and he needed a flurry of points at the end of the last 2 games to extend his double-digit scoring streak. Given his shooting woes, I wonder if his legs might be tiring a bit. I just don't see any reason to play him 37 minutes when we have a capable back-up, unless Self is concerned with Graham's turf toe and has decided to prioritize managing Graham's minutes instead.
I know Lucas gets a lot of flak on these boards, but he's a nice 4th big to have around. I think a lot of our angst regarding Lucas is that he has often been thrust into a position where more is expected or needed from him than should be. Either because of foul trouble or Cliff's faulty motor or Jamari being ineffective...it has often fallen all the way down to 4th-big-Landon to play major minutes. He lacks on skill, but he's always ready and always comes with effort. Good game from him tonight.
As HEM predicted, we swept the 3 games in 6 days. Now for the next mini-campaign: a 4 games in 10 days stretch that goes @Okie St., @Tech, home against Baylor, @WVU. The game in Morgantown on the 16th is the one I have highlighted, which is not to say we can't lose any of the other 3, but the match against Huggins' bunch will be tough. I have it penciled in for a loss right now. Even so...we're definitely in the driver's seat.
I would also say this to the current discussion: hiring former players has worked out pretty well for Duke. They aren't having any problems recruiting, and Coach K's coaching tree is growing and is definitely more impressive than Self's. Obviously K has many years on Self, but cultivating something like that would definitely enhance Self's legacy.
I like the idea of Vaughn or Sherron, or Aaron Miles even, being brought in as a guard coach.
@DoubleDD My understanding was that the ball had to be on the way down, or above the cylinder (as in directly above, not just higher than the cylinder), or if it has touched the backboard already. I thought Mason's layup attempt was higher than the rim, but not "above" it, it looked to be still out front, and therefore a clean block. But my understanding might not be any better either, so...
If I had to choose, I'd say Perry narrowly edges out Selden for the HTR trophy today. So all those that picked Perry...you win!
So partly because I just love reading these boards so much and am trying to jump start a little pre-game conversation, I thought it would be fun to get a thread going about what we were expecting for the upcoming game and maybe picking a "Hawk to Rock" Any other suggestions are welcome; I think it's espn that has on one of their segments or stories "bold predictions". Maybe going forward we could incorporate it into @wrwlumpy 's fantastic posts about our next opponents. But for the sake of today I just started a new thread.
Prediction: KU wins 74-60. The TCU game gave Self plenty to preach about and should grab the guys' attention. It is almost the equivalent of coming off a loss.
Hawk to Rock: Brannen Greene. After failing to launch a 3 in the last game, he's got to have itchy trigger fingers. Playing before a rowdy home crowd, I expect to see the 3 to the temple sign from him multiple times running back down the court.
@jayhawk-007 Just to clarify, I was in no way saying that criticizing or questioning Self's coaching decisions equals a conspiracy. I was just likening my final theory to one of a conspiracy theory.
One of the many things I like about these boards is that we do question, examine, and criticize his decisions. If we didn't, it would be a board of cheerleaders. Not that there's anything wrong with heaping praise on the guy; he's very successful and has done a great job overall in my opinion. But we dig deep into the minute details and find things we disagree with or would like to see done differently. Which leads me to the another thing I really like about the group commenting on these boards - we criticize and disagree with coach Self and aren't met with a bunch of "do you know more than coach Self?" rhetoric.
So I definitely applaud you finding something you'd do differently and expressing it. You're right - no conspiracy here :)
espn article on Vaughn's imminent firing ↗
Too bad. And too bad he got his first head coaching gig with such a poor organization like the Magic. I don't know if the guy is good head coaching material or not, but they have tried rebuilding with very poor talent, either from the draft or free agency.
@jayhawk-007 I get it. I want to see him out there more too, especially when watching how ineffective our post play has been with other players garnering significant chunks of minutes.
But to me it's like you said: it's obvious. It's obvious to everyone. It's so painfully obvious that Cliff is head and shoulders better than the other options. This is unlike almost every other discussion we've had on these boards (and the other boards) where we debate the merits of one player's minutes versus others (Brady vs. EJ/Releford, Oubre vs. Svi. vs. Greene vs. Selden vs. Graham, etc.). There's really not a debate about who is better and who makes the team better. It's obvious. And I can't fathom that it's not obvious to coach Self as well. But I can understand the reasons.
I have one other theory, a conspiracy theory, and while I don't believe it, it has crossed my mind. It's a very long-term, big picture approach. It goes like this: Self has come to two realizations: 1) his own team does not have the sufficient talent inside to compete for a national championship this season, especially when considering the other realization. 2) Kentucky is just too loaded. Reinforcements are coming in the post next year, with at least Bragg and possibly others. He probably will still have enough pieces on the perimeter, even in a worst case scenario of losing 2-3 players to the draft, transfers, etc. Given this epiphany, Self has decided to sandbag Cliff's draft stock to ensure he comes back next year. Cliff will be much better next year, with a year to learn and to get Hudy-ized. So Self is making his play for next year by holding Cliff back just enough to make him seriously consider another year of college development.
Of course I don't think Self would intentionally do that. And Cliff might be coming back regardless of any conspiracy theory. And that is probably in his best interest. But in the dark corners of my mind when I see Lucas playing 24 minutes, I at least briefly consider (again, before immediately dismissing) if Self could really be that shrewd and calculating.
@jayhawk-007 said:
on average: minutes per game - .18:39 ; points - 8.6 ; rebounds 5.9 ; he is also leading the team in blocks. Simply put, he is far and away our best low post player and rebounder and scorer and athlete.
You do the math: what would his numbers be with 5 more min per game, or with 10 more min per game?
Didn't see if anyone had covered this; I only browsed through all the posts and it didn't look like it. You can't simply project out a player's stats by saying "if he played twice as many minutes, he'd get twice as many rebounds" or looking at his per minute stats and then extrapolating them out to X amount of minutes/game. Call it the law of diminishing returns. It's an economic term but in short, there is a point in which increasing Cliff's minutes will yield decreased productivity. That point likely occurs sooner for a freshman that has not undergone an off-season of Hudyization.
We have to remember that Cliff is just a freshman, and elite D1 ball is rough on freshman, particularly post players. They go from playing as high school seniors against kids 14-18 (and a lot of the times against significanly shorter and smaller bodied kids), to playing as college freshman against men 18-22. In practices as well as games.
If you don't like the winning the war versus winning the battle analogy, just consider looking at it big picture. There are multiple reasons to manage Cliff's minutes, and the biggest one ties into what I've been talking about. He's a freshman, and there's not only a point of diminishing returns within the individual games, but there's also a cumulative point where he will wear down and not be as effective later in the season. It is quite possible that Self is saving Cliff so that he is still fresh late in the season.
This is to say nothing of the injury factor. Last season we had much of our hopes pinned on JoJo, just to watch him suffer one injury that led to another, likely dashing our title hopes. Maybe coach is trying to limit the wear and tear on the Big Red Dog to ensure his presence in the dance.
And one last thing to consider on this point is that we are in a stretch of playing 3 games in 6 days. Pretty sure this has been mentioned by others, if not on this thread than on the TCU thread. Again, strategy. Big picture. Self steals a game against TCU - the weakest of the 3 opponents - without taxing Cliff with heavy minutes. Self also knows the ISU game is the most important since they already have a win against us, and that is the last of the 3 games. So perhaps taking steps to ensure we have some fresh legs for that game is more prudent than having Cliff pad his stats against TCU.
I get the idea of letting players improve with game minutes, but let's not kid ourselves that this is the only way players improve. Especially with freshman. Kelly Oubre anyone? He rode the pine a lot early, until it clicked. Until he was able to do enough things sufficiently that he could be trusted on the court to just go play. You ask "what does it mean, 'his motor was not very good?'" Well Self explained that in the days following the ISU loss. It doesn't mean that he wasn't trying hard. It means that he is thinking too much (as opposed to just playing), thus slowing him down. Kelly reached the point where the game slowed down for him by playing less minutes and learning in practice, so this could very well be another of Self's reasoning for playing Cliff less minutes.
Another thing I'd disagree with is the statement "We do not have the luxury of bringing him along gradually." Quite the contrary, we very much have that luxury. Aside from Texas, the Big 12 is not full of big, bruising front lines. And Self already has a win in his pocket against the Longhorns in Austin. He can get by in most of the other games with Jamari, Landon, & Hunter, all the while playing Cliff the amount he deems is necessary for both his development and long-term viability.
I'm not debating that Cliff is our best rebounder. Our most legit low-post presence. I've discussed many times that Cliff is the only player that can be paired with Perry to make him better, which in my opinion may very well be the key to the entire season. But this is anything but a poor coaching decision. It is a very measured strategy to not only win another conference championship but also to, as you put it, be a contender in the post season.
@wrwlumpy said:
I forgot the name of the big guy form Ohio State when they played here
Jared Sullinger. He was healthy when we beat them in the Final 4 that year though :)
@HighEliteMajor @wrwlumpy @JayHawkFanToo The answer to the debate is...both viewpoints are correct.
Look, Coach Self is ALWAYS going to have his offense attempt to get looks inside. It's the system that has won 10 straight conference titles, 1 national championship, and a ridiculous overall winning percentage in his time in Lawrence. He's not going to abandon it. I've said before when some posters were pining for a zone defense last year, but you can't overhaul your system year-to-year. If you do, you're not teaching your core principles to the players that are going to be there 2, 3, and 4 years. You can't establish a foundation. It would lead to inconsistency and I believe would be an overall detriment. So yeah, coach preaches to pound it inside...even when he doesn't have the adequate personnel. That isn't going to go away.
However, I doubt Coach Self said "no 3s", or gave a red or yellow light to his shooters. TCU has an excellent defense, and Trent Johnson is, imo, a pretty decent coach. Just like an offense can run sets to give it's shooters open looks, a defense can scheme to take away a team's strengths. So if anyone has even remotely scouted KU, they know we lack the personnel to bang inside, but that we have a stable of excellent shooters. So...what do you think teams are going to game plan to stop? Right. Couple that with Ellis playing limited minutes, and an already locked in defense can focus even more on guarding the perimeter.
I think there is room for frustration, because while we won't see a system overhaul we could see some tweaks. A play here or there to free shooters. Maybe they did and the plays just got blown up, or weren't executed properly. I don't know without re-watching the game (and honestly, does anyone really want to re-watch that game?). Selfs said they played without energy, so perhaps some of the actions they were trying to run were just that ineffective without the same energy. But HEM is right - eight 3-point attempts is too low for this team. However, TCU had something to do with it.
@KUSTEVE No worries on disagreeing with me. I'm wrong as often as I am right!
To your points: first of all I'm not sure when RPI started making comeback as the "go-to" stat. Seems not too long ago it was outed as being a pretty flawed measuring stick. And it's not just you. Obviously the article I posted a link to referenced RPI, as well as several other posters. However, when you ask me if our #1 conference RPI isn't good enough, I guess I say...not really. What good does that do us? I think the only thing that having that #1 RPI does is hype us up and set us up for a letdown if we don't show well in the NCAA tournament.
I think @drgnslayr hit the nail on the head with his last comment. Let's face it: the Big 12 is Kansas and the 9 red-headed step-children. Who was the last conference team to reach a Final 4 other than us? Oklahoma St...in 2004. That's pathetic. I so desperately want KU to be a part of a true basketball conference! To be challenged. To have a true rivalry. None of this will happen unless some of the other teams in the conference elevate their profile.
With all that in mind, understand that I pull for ISU to succeed. They are the most like us. Obviously lacking the tradition, but they are more a basketball school than most of the other teams in the conference. Their football program is anemic. They have probably the second best coach in the conference. They have the second best home court advantage in the conference. In my opinion, they are the team best positioned right now to elevate their status, which in turn would help the conference. And that is why I thought them losing to Tech was a blow to the conference as a whole.
In short, I just feel that the top of the conference needs to continue to get better in order to truly help our conference "profile", rather than fall back to the pack by losing to the cellar dwellers.
@drgnslayr Well we'll have to agree to disagree about ISU. We've discussed this before. They may be a tad over-rated, but I don't think all that much. They're obviously not as bad as they showed yesterday, anymore than we were as bad as we were losing to TCU a couple of years ago. I think they're a legit top 20 team, capable of a sweet 16 run, possibly an elite 8 even if they match-up well against whoever they draw.
Agree that we need to show well in March, and that if we're over-hyped now a flame out in the dance by the Big 12 will hurt us.
@JayHawkFanToo All ten Big 12 teams? No way. TCU...maybe. They are in the top 68 of most rankings (Sagarin, Kenpom, etc.). But not Tech. And really, does anyone want an NCAA tournament with TCU, the 9th best team in the Big 12, in it? I don't.
Regardless of if it's 7 or 8 teams that get in, remember I also said that I'm concerned with seeding. If the perception is the Big 12 is overrated and just a bunch of mediocre teams beating up on each other, that is likely to drag down the seeding of teams by the committee.
@RockChalkinTexas Sounds like you had an awesome experience! Very happy for you! Thanks for sharing and for supporting the team down there :)
@Crimsonorblue22 That picture is awesome. Me and my brother were watching the game and thought "really?"
@drgnslayr It's two separate arguments.
I guess what I'm saying is not that I have a problem with Tech bringing it's best against ISU, but with ISU not bringing its best against Tech.
I care about our opponents, as in the opponents we're playing at the time, bringing their best game against us because I think it better prepares us for the NCAA tournament. I don't care if someone is preparing ISU for the tournament, because I don't care about them as a team.
But what I do care about in regards to ISU is being a team at the top of the conference and losing to a bottom feeder. It serves to call into question how good the top of the league really is, and therefore how good KU is. Here's an article from ESPN that might help illustrate my point a bit better:
Now we can dismiss it as ESPN taking a dump all over the Big 12 because they're not Kentucky or the ACC, but I think it raises fair questions. I'm concerned about how many teams the conference will get in come tournament time, and the seeding those teams will get.
What's good for the conference is good for KU. Because we are not only competing for recruits against teams like Kentucky and Duke, but we're also competing against conferences. Duke can say "come here and you'll play against UNC, Syracuse, Louisville, etc." Teams with national championships and Final Four appearances within most the lifetime of current recruits. I just think it would be nice if someone in our conference could have a small modicum of success that would make it more attractive as a basketball conference.
As for getting help, I'm fully aware we have gotten some help over the years. But what has felt better: winning the thing on our own merits or backing into it because Texas (or whoever) blew a game they should have won? And I won't root for other top teams in the conference to lose just because it might make our road easier. I would prefer to do our own work.
@drgnslayr I guess I take the opposite approach to not only the TCU game, but the ISU-Tech game and the league in general. Regarding a WVU loss helping us and making Wednesday's TCU game being easier had they won - I don't want anyone's help and I want everyone to play their "A" game against us. If TCU will have a chip on their shoulder Wednesday...good. Bring it!
As for Tech beating ISU, I prefer the top teams in the league to perform as such. Tech is not an NCAA team, so that game only served to hurt the Big 12's overall profile.
@joeloveshawks Agreed on the residual benefits of bringing in Wiggins. Something I've mentioned on these boards before is that both Self and KU in general need someone in the NBA carrying the torch for the university. Paul Pierce has been the last and only star we've had in the league for quite some time, and he can't play forever. Self has needed his own guy in the NBA to point to and say "look at what this guy is doing in the league, and he played for me here at KU." Nevermind that Wiggins was going to be in the NBA regardless; we didn't "develop" him anymore than Calipari developes most of his OADs. But the perception is there at least. And the reality that he didn't hurt his stock after coming to play for Self. I think that is important after the Selby debacle (which wasn't Self's fault, but again...perception).
@HighEliteMajor You're showing your bias. He gets criticism for hunting his shot, then for taking only 6 shots against Stanford. So...did you want him to be selfish and hunt his shot against Stanford, or not?
I know your position was against signing Wiggins from the beginning. That it wasn't worth it unless he led us to a national title.
Here's what I'd say - I get why you were against Wiggins. That by bringing him in we didn't have the minutes to play Greene and AW3, and as such we didn't develop Greene as much and it led to AW3 transferring. Fair enough. To that I would say that we weren't going to win a national championship with Greene & AW3 instead of Wiggins last year. Not with JoJo hurt. Not with Tharpe at PG. And because we had Wiggins and he left instead of having a solid platoon of Greene & AW3, we were able to sign Oubre. I know Oubre signed early (or declared, I forget if he had actually signed in the early period), but does he if we don't have Wiggins, who was all but guaranteed to be a OAD? I doubt it.
The other thing you say is that we would have been a better team last season without Wiggins. As you say we can't prove it so we'll never know for sure, but just looking at it: Tharpe was going to be Tharpe. Not sure he would have been significantly better. And honestly, I'm glad he was as bad as he was. It allowed for him to exit, paving the way for Mason to be the starter this year and for Graham to come on board. And Selden - has he been any better this year without Wiggins around being the presumed focus? Not really, at least not to me. So I can't see the other 2 starting perimeter positions being all that much better. So then I'm left to wonder if a combination of Greene & AW3 would have been a straight up upgrade over Wiggins. I don't think so, so I guess I can't see last year's team being better without him.
I'm the last guy to say "everything happens for a reason", but I'm pretty stoked about the make-up of this team, which might have been very different had Wiggins not been here.
@HighEliteMajor @Crimsonorblue22 Have to weigh in here. I wouldn't say that Wiggins was selfish. But I do agree with some of what HEM says. He did hunt his shot, but you can't be considered selfish for hunting your shot if coach is asking you to be the alpha and take more shots, can you? Or if you have 2 stiffs on the perimeter and maybe another guy or two in the post standing around watching you.
I don't know that selfish guys play lock down defense as freshman. Yeah he didn't get any Jamari Traylor floor burn awards, but the guy did a lot more to carry last year's team than anyone else. I know HEM doesn't care much about them, and I don't hold them in as high regard as a lot of fans, but we don't win the Big 12 last year without Wiggins.
I will always wonder what Wiggins could have been like on a team like this year's squad. With competent point guard play, or playing with a full compliment of back court talent. Which isn't to say I'm pining for Wiggins on this year's squad. I just wonder if we might judge him differently if things were different last year.
And to the original point in which he was brought up, Wiggins wasn't "calling the shots" last year. It is in no way comparable to Turner this year.