Argumentum ad Populum and so unpersuasive.
jaybate 1.0
10346 posts
Alas, I don't drink anymore. Too old.
But If I did, I reckon we all, you included, should throw a few back.
In another lifetime, Lump, in another lifetime.
I like your hypothesis, but it needs a modification or it blows up.
The injury to Goss could only have been one of the decisive drivers along with the fouling out of the Zaga big, and Extra possession and lost momentum from the technical , if the game were close at that point. Something had to make the game close. What?
I argue Zaga appeared a significantly better team. I argue there was IMHO an appearance of no calling sharply favoring UNC. I argue that no calling made the game CLOSE enough for the factors above to tip the game to UNC.
You don't have to buy my argument, but it would set the condition for yours to hold.
Otherwise, you have to come up with an explanation why the game was close and explain away the appearance of asymmetry in no calls.
". I don’t believe the NCAA told KU to have a lousy shooting day so UNC would have an easier path to the title..."
--@JayHawkFanToo
I agree.
Almost every team, not just CST, MST and PST teams have some sub par shooting performances over six games, so off shooting games can almost certainly be excluded from consideration as the probable trigger. It has to be some other thing, or some constellation of other things than off shooting games that produces the striking asymmetry in the spatial and time zone distribution of Final Four, Finals, and Champion teams. .
This is why as an old QA type I always come back to asymmetries. As an colleague once said with admirable pith and insight:
asymmetries in processes trigger asymmetries in outcomes.
Apparent asymmetries in recruiting, seeding paths (possible stacking opponents that are bad matchups asymmetrically), and referee no calls and calls seem more probables places to research than off shooting games.
That certainly seems logical to me, but I would not have thought of it without you. Thanks.
Interesting insight. Thanks.
I don't find your data or apparent logic very persuasive for your position, but thanks for presenting it. I will continue to try to see your POV..
While you may have been joking, Memetic engineering is reputedly in full blossom in politics and warfare. It would certainly be worth considering in sports media. Scientific based Advertising and PR started in mass daily newspaper and magazine publishing in the early 20th Century and spread to politics and war as propaganda. Your hypothesis seems worth keeping an eye open for data. Color Revolutions have reputedly relied heavily on the memetic engineering and have reputedly succeeded. Who knows?
Hypothesis: there is a higher basketball watcher/bettor density in the EST and a different, more dominant media-gaming complex driving the EST action than in the other time zones. It might conceivably have evolved from a legacy tendency from pre sports television gaming organization divisions of action across the country, when all sports cable programming began to evolve and then built alliances with the NCAA and with be then dominant broadcast networks.
End of hypothesis.
I don't even know if there is a higher watcher/bettor density . But it seems remotely possible. Also cricket. It would probably be possible to trace empirically evolution of gaming organization and video organization, if one were to inclined, resources and sufficiently skilled to do, too.
I'm just throwing it out as one of many conceivable hypotheses, since none of us is likely an insider that would know authoritatively.
Again, I am proposing NO conspiracies of illegal activity. None.
I am against using conspiracy theories of illegal activity to explain college basketball phenomena, unless they are already proven, of course.
Conspiracy theories unproven and "narratives" are for suckers.
I REALLY don't understand what is going on. I'm just opining about appearances and hypothesizing, to try to find some way of making sense of the appearances and possibly to encourage data search. I have to admit those stats of @Blown are striking.
Rock Chalk!
No. And this is why I have remarked about raw population distributions appearing not to be a primary driver of whatevever triggers the asymmetries we observe in Final Four and Finals teams. If it were only about that, then Texas and California team's would have the best teams experiencing the most beneficial tournament engineering asymmetries. Capice?
The apparent regime appears to involve a petroshoeco-agency complex and a media-gaming complex; that is why I have referred to it as an apparent regime. As a layman and a fan, that is about as specific as I can be based on limited virtual appearances, and even then it is at most a hypothesis.
I am NOT hypothesizing a conspiracy. I am flatley opposed to conspiracy theories involving illegalities being use to explain basketball phenomena. Whatever is ordering college basketball and it's tournament appears legal and without attempt to hide its apparent effects.
I have hypothesized it as tournament engineering based on entertainment values.
Hope that helps.
It appears Bill would have a statistically insignificant chance of equaling Roy William's record with the UNC EasyHeels, at KU, unless Self and KU "make accommodation" with the "apparent regime". Until they make such accommodation, or the apparent regime is altered, it appears KU fans might as will skip postseason, except as a Carney experience. It's like watching The Voice.
Whatever the drivers may actually be, it appears recruiting, seeding path, and no-call asymmetry appear just too much to overcome IMHO. It appears unrealistic to expect apparently "non apparent regime teams" to win more than 1 ring.
The message appears starkly clear, after last night, as clear as messages apparently being sent North Korea. @Blown's stats apparently nail the coffin closed on the "Tourney." Gonzaga appeared so much better than North Carolina that it appeared to take nearly an entire half of asymmetric no calls for North Carolina to eek out maybe the most pathetic "win," since Coach K and Duke "defeated" UW, and Bo broke radio silence and called them a rent-a-team.
None of this is about population distributions of where the players are, anymore, if it ever were. If it were, Texas and CALIFORNIA and Great Lakes schools would be kicking ass the last 15 years. This appears to be about the "apparent regime."
I truly pity Roy.
This is like watching one of Shakespeare's tragic heroes slowly descend.
Something similar appeared to happen to Konsonants.
Pitino and Bo apparently tried to save their basketball souls and they were apparently smeared for their "peccadilloes."
I wish Bill would retire. Now.
I don't want to see it happen to him.
Maybe he will find a middle path.
But I doubt it.
I watched UNC vs. Gonzaga.
What game did u watch????
Naismith has t0 be bent over a locker room toilet in basketball heaven heaving his guts out!!!
@et al
"How Do I Engineer Thee"
How do I engineer thee? Let me count the ways.
I use thee to the depth and breadth and height of recruiting bias.
My sole can brand, when feeling insufficient share,
For the ends of controlling the petrowear market place.
I use thee to the level of selection day’s
Most quiet seed, by spin and PR psy-op.
I use thee freely, as click whores connive online.
I use thee basely, as my shills heap fake hype.
I use thee with the passion of greedy abuse
In my legal briefs, and bent whistles.
I use thee with a greed I turn to bones
With my spreads. I use thee with the rot,
stench, and death, of the greatest game; and, if Hell choose,
I shall but use thee baser after death.
--Elizabeth Barrett Brownbate 1.0
(Note: All fiction. No malice. And with apologies to Liz and Bob)
Zaga appeared the better team.
The refs appeared to keep the game close, especially the second half, by apparently no calling UNC defence 5-7 times per possession until the Zags appeared completely destabilized.
The Zags were so good that the apparent no calling took most of the second half to break Zaga.
Then the refs appeared to wait until a Zag--Carnowski--retaliated in frustration and they hung a T on him to give UNC two FTAs and an extra possession, then the refs apparently fouled out the Zags defender of UNC's inside scorer, and then UNC was so weak that the refs had to let UNC maul Zaga the rest of the way, before UNC's inside scoring could decide the game..
In short, this was a new low for college basketball and a new high water mark of apparent entertainment value engineering.
I have lost all respect for Roy Williams.
It was shameful.
I truly wish I had not watched.
Completely forgot Cunliffe and Garrett who are reputedly stud additions, too.
This year's "JSOG" metaphor may have to give way to "the whole damn pentagon".
I think it will head in the direction you mention, but it will probably take Billy Preston a full season to adapt. Stretch 4 requires probably the widest variety of skills to become a serious threat. And Preston seems to have a few motor related issues. And because he is so phenomenally talented, he has never had to learn to get better yet. So: I would really be surprised if he can wear a saddle, or even share the load, the way Josh did this season the last 2/3s of the season. Preston likely will have a complementary role his one season at KU. But we need at least that from him. And if Devonte, Vick and Svi improve a reasonable increment next season, Doke slides back in where he left off, and Malik plays to his abilities, then Preston as a complementary threat the second half of the season should make this one of KU's sparkling teams with more balance and depth. Add Coleby, with more snap (if he isn't out of eligibility), and Lightfoot with a year of enhanced beard growth, and this could really be an exciting year coming up, even if Bragg were to leave. If Bragg stays, and rediscovers his mojo and game, and it could be KU's best team since 2008. Its really looking stacked. It feels like the strangling of the peak ShoeWars years is starting to slowly lift. It had to take a few years for the end of long stacking to filter through the system and for Self to get the powder magazine back up to normal levels.
Congrats to the most deserving coaching addition in some time: Bill Self
For me, UNC-Wilmington would be a destination job. Recruit, Coach. Fish. Repeat.
Great job EVERYONE! I know some feel frustrated at failing to persuade others, but this has been one of the most interesting airing of the basis issues I have read. Tried to Red Rooster everyone!
Thx. This is something I have been dreaming of for Frank ever since he got double digit rebounds from the point two seasons back. He is an exceptional basketball player with a lion's heart and quiet dignity.
Go, Frank, go!
I'm pulling for you to find a crack in the NBA door, where you can show off the after burner you set aside the last two seasons to slow down to the D1 pace.
This means Frank is eligible to get his jersey hung one day, doesn't it?
"What is most frustrating is a seeming pattern of very sub par performances on the offensive end during the tournament."--@DCHawker
I have wondered about this, too.
But one tournament a few years ago I anecdotally observed some other teams in the 16 and EE rounds and I noticed that the loser in most of those games lost either because of a sub par offensive performance, or because of apparent whistle asymmetry favoring their opponent.
I hypothesized without writing about it that in the vast majority of Carney games, those are the two ways one loses, once the competition gets stiff, and when one is not among a select few EST teams.
This is only a hypothesis, not an assertion of verified empirical fact.
But ever since I have focused on calls for more symmetric refereeing to recover the tournament from the apparent jaws of the Carney.
Bad shooting nights seem a given of the stochastic aspects of the game.
Bad refereeing seems something that could be remedied.
Now siting the early rounds of the March Carney in Wichita, when they could be cited in Lawrence on James Naismith Court; that is REALLY stupid.
It's discouraging winning only one ring in a decade with the deck apparently stacked against KU, because KU tries to do it the right way.
But imagine the anger, futility, hollowness and self-loathing that UK fans must feel at having reputedly sold out at most every turn and still to have won only one ring over the same period.
It must feel humiliating and degrading, if the Great Wall of denial ever cracks even a little!!
A couple recent threads here have alluded to apparently antic behavior by U.K. faithful regarding sofa burning and trolling of a referee's online presence.
Might these antic behaviors indicate their long experiment in XTReme Self-Debasement is finally de-patterning them?
I don't know.
But I wonder.
It seems like it just disappeared.
I used to look forward to the suspense of what the punishment would be, and which new bunch would take over UNCAD. I used to wonder if UNC's credentials would be pulled? I wondered how many degrees would be invalidated? How many students would sue the university for substandard educations?
But now it's like it never happened.
I want the scandal back!
I want a documentary.
I want Michael Moore to make a hustle called, "Dude, Where Did My Degree Go?"
Life is so boring without Easygate.
Affirmative.
Update from DIY Tesla TRANSMITTER...
It turns out I had one bad Chinese sourced control panel with some stuxnet variant corrupting the transmissions from the future. I replaced the board with a good USA sourced version and powered up the might morphin Tesla Tower of backyard power and brought in the following....
KU = NATIONAL BASKETBALL CHAMPIONS IN 2018!!!!!
Get ready. I think this puppy is dialed in now!
This is edifying, especially as it has been done without gambling scandals, the right shoe brand of late, long stacks, and without favorable asymmetric seeding paths and whistles.
Rock Chalk!!!
"Nothing sickens me more than a ref that actually thinks he does something that millions of others couldn’t do, and then wants to be the show. Officials are really the worst part of all sports. And zero accountability."--@HighEliteMajor
Thank you for articulating the above. This "ref mentality" also manifests in career politicians, career judges, career regulators, career central bankers, and career infrastructure CEOs. There is something about careerism that brings out this unfortunate side of human nature in these fields.
I believe U.K. fans use sofas as emergency fire starters for home stills.
Better with Josh, if choice were one or the other. Josh was a force every game, even off games. Josh is what Wayne would have been had Wayne been able to focus consistently and not lost his legs to injury. Josh has near Wiggins athleticism, when Wiggins was playing 2/3s speed in college. Since Wiggins is all pro good, that means Josh is darned good even if not in Wiggins hyper category.
Better with Wayne if choice were he and Wayne. Wayne was a very good player, when focused and healthy, but still a doughnut team with a hole in the middle.
Biggest improvement would have been a good center to rotate with Landen most games and pair with him some games.
Perhaps extending Bruce Weber justifies their hiring of minorities and majorities in other sports?
Every season some one finally finds the right note for putting the season to bed.
Way to go, oo7.
@Blown said:
Its just coincidence but I did notice 12 of 13 titles were won by Eastern Time Zone Teams. 42 of 47, or something has been won by eastern time zone schools since ESPN became televised.
Are the odds of EST teams winning 12 of the last 13 and 42 of 47 since ESPN began televising the games greater, or lesser, than the WTC towers being the first and only incidence of three high rise towers designed to withstand commercial jet impacts falling in their own foot prints in a single day?
To be fair let's add Red Auerbach's 10 NBA rings in 12 seasons, Wooden's 10 rings in 11 years and Self's 13 titles in 13 years.
What is it about American basketball that makes it so prone to to so many extraordinary streaks?
I am reminded that James Naismith saw his game invented in a Springfield YMCA spread within a couple years throughout Northeast and Great Lakes industrial cities as a professional sport staged by boxing and burlesque promoters with gambling thoroughly a part of the games.
Naismith actually abandoned his game for several years and moved to Denver to get a Doctor of Osteopathy degree. Looking back one wonders if he became disillusioned by his lost control and the sport's saturation with gambling.
Gambling is about the odds of something happening. Basketball has long been plagued by interference in its outcomes. Perhaps the interference has been more than we suspected?
Man, I wanted KU to beat Oregon. I'm getting old and have gotten past most of the most intense feelings, but something about that EE Game gets my juices flowing still!
Howling!
I saw a duck at a neighbor's house yesterday and thought of shooting, cleaning, roasting and eating it! But then I remembered I don't hunt ducks. 😎
@globaljaybird cuts a lot of slack and looks after the backs of most. I would take what he wrote to heart and hang in.
This board has apparently evolved quite differently than most. It is small in number and has a lot of long timers. It's more like a 20th cafe in a small town than a Starbucks in a big city. There is a legacy memory here that is absent in many online communities.
If you want to learn about KU Basketball--about what is really knowable about it short of being on the inside, or being a reporter getting face time, this board has that.
We have some writers and some guys that taught themselves to write here. They "think" about basketball, and they "listen." Board rats here actually hear and think about what is posted and there are some here with some miles on them; that have seen some eras come and go and so can fit what others write into a larger context. You write something here and someone will think about it. A lot of new posters aren't ready for that. They are used to jerks bashing them, or approval from shallow shared opinions, but they are not used to being taken seriously by grown men and women.
There's something I call "a hard 13" here. I've been writing a lot for a long time here. I have some that agree often and others that don't. But nobody gives me a freebie here. You get 13 votes here and it was something special. Your getting votes beyond shared points of view. I don't get that very often. They let me know where I stand and where they do. But they don't let differences get in the way when you do something worthwhile.
But this place is more than a 20th Century word cafe. It's a 21st Century logonasium to come work out and play pickup word games in. Most here have played basketball, some competitively and some on the playgrounds. If you go to a new playground, or gym, you know you're going to get a few smashed back in your grille till you figure who is who. You don't quit and go home, because some one schooled you on something. You learn and get better and try to find a way to stay on the court.
This court still has some old metal nets on the side baskets and some old guys that care, even if they can't get up like they used to. I don't think he said anything you can't take. He just went up and rejected one in your grille. Ya gotta stay to play though. Up to you though. No one's going to come looking for you to invite you back.
Rock Chalk!
Chumming appears to make the @BShark grow fonder. 😄
Alas, I will be a disappointment here.
We live in extraordinary times that appear to happen every 15 to 25 years, or so, when our reputed private oligarchy and its agents appear to think a reset of our thinking (and savings) is in order to allow them basic changes in how they organize and exploit parts of the world.
During these times, enormous distractions are exploited, and reputedly sometimes even contrived, whilst one axis of private oligarchy out maneuvers another for the opportunity to take what vicious, and sometimes piratical, action appears expedient and feasible at that time.
Ordinary folk usually witness much hard to explain activity that surfaces during these times. The activity manifests both inexplicable tendencies and inexplicable exceptions to those tendencies. Things appear inexplicable, significantly because rule of law has apparently been informally suspended to significant extent and organs of trusted information have apparently begun to poison the well of public information for those that own the organs, who apparently consider themselves part of that private oligarchy. The usual minters of truth are taking a kind of break. In this disoriented and destabilized state, ordinary folk labor, usually without leaders helping them, while the SHTF and many suffer and a few prosper. During such times, a rational thing to do is to wear a metaphorical hat and wait until the metaphorical excrement stops metaphorically coming down so hard headwear is recommended. It usually takes ordinary folk some time afterwards to figure out what was actually done and why. Sometimes it takes forever, if enough evidence can be destroyed, but I digress.
I would not expect the college sports industry and its recruiting realm to exist entirely independent of this phenomena.
There appeared a brief window opening on how things were happening in recruiting and now that window appears to have fogged up from closure.
Common sense hints at no certain end to prior activity, but instead to possible evolution of it with residues that can no longer be observed. But common sense has its risks and limits, Hence the hat advisory.
Based on historical patterns I can recall, I would not expect the window to unfog, or reopen, for awhile.
At most we get a glimpse of dots like Easygate and then of a big new shoe contract--seemingly anomalous dots that invite wonder but no clear explanation.
Still, based on historical recollections again, one might hazard a wild guess that in a galaxy far, far away, agents and gaming might figure in as puzzle parts some time down the road.
There endeth the stroll.
Happy chumming.
(Note: all opining and speculation by a fan alias with no insider knowledge or relevant professional expertise.)
You're right. It could be nothing, or something.
First, as far as I know, if the school is brand X, then it's coach is usually brand X. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. So: KU and Bill perhaps got their best offers from adidas. From what I can recall coaches haven't broken ranks with their employers.
Bill supposedly harvests around $10M per year from Ball related income. Note: I believe this to be questionable and speculative, but I'll use it for the sake of explaining some basic rough ideas.
Bill's base salary is reputedly a meager $5M/yr.
Let's pretend the other reputed $5M/yr apparently comes from OTHER BASKETBALL RELATED INCOME on the line items. There are reputedly several sources of other basketball related income, but the adidas line is reputedly: a.) significant; and b.) somehow informally linked to the university shoe contract MONEY, which is a big enough AMOUNT to fund the nonrevenue sports with out making the Chancellor beg more appropriations money from (and incur more political debts to ) legislators.
These linkages, plus the significant length of contracts makes jumping brands no small task.
Without putting too fine a point on it, apparently some universities are sometimes willing to take the biggest money shoe contract, even if it means less access to top 100 players, because of informal drivers shaping recruiting with this or that brand's access and relations to players.
Agents reputedly complicate things. For example, players can't have agents, but HC's can have agents. Therefore, a coach's agent for endorsement deals can hang around the players indirectly and informally building relationships. Some agents reputedly have more influence
than others.
And agents can have incentivized relationships with agent runners and summer game coaches.
And then there are the relationships of shoe brands and agents with pro ball and the advertisers at the college and pro levels.
And then there are the intermittent dog fights among shoe brands trying to find stable, sustainable market volumes within their producer oligopoly. The EU goes into deep enduring recession. Adidas loses big EU sales. It tries to make up the loss by taking a larger market share from Nike. Nike counter moves.
Recruiting can thus become very complicated.
Yes we will see what happens. A DNP was some kind of message.
First, I am just a fan and can only speculate on what I've read and on appearances.
That said....
No apparent conspiracies involved IMHO.
Most of the power summer game teams, where most of the Top 100 recruits reputedly play are reputedly Nike sponsored. Players reputedly build informal relationships with Nike and related agents over a period of years in high school.
Nike reputedly holds the lion's share of D1 college and college coaching contracts, also.
It's just apparently informal networking and a numbers game.
Nothing more reputedly.
But it appears to adversely impact KU recruiting at certain positions and it's depth.
Others want to impute conspiracies that just aren't apparently there.
Conspiracy theory is for suckers.
Narratives are for suckers.
The agent end of things is less transparent and so inconclusive so far in Influence.
Hope that helps.
Whatever, IMHO, forget about ANY illegalities.
Rock Chalk!!!!
I'm not ready to give up on Bragg.
Otherwise, we shouldn't want anymore of what might be called 5-star asterisks, if we can avoid having to sign them for numbers, as was the case in the past.
Non asterisk 5-stars is the mission.
Our on asterisk guys have blossomed at KU and done well in the NBA, thank you very much.
Living with our malice is the key to a happy life IMHO.
I'm pretty darned happy.
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised If a lot of D1 head coaches adopted your system about the time the apparent long stacks emerged. 😄
I'm not blaming them either, but I think it's interesting too.
But after the apparent Wisconsin-Duke refereeing and some other examples, I also can't help but wonder if the refereeing would have gotten even more interesting in a closer game.