🏀 KuBuckets Archive

I like the video on this kid. Are we sure he's 6-5, though? He doesn't look like he's quite that tall, or maybe this is an older video and he has grown since then. No real concerns with his game. He's got good bounce and handle. I actually wouldn't compare him to Och at all. He's more of a midrange type of player from the highlights there. I'd put him more in line with being a smaller, better shooting Josh Jackson. He can shoot the three, but he is more likely to get into the midrange and score or distribute.

I could see him being anywhere from average to superb defensively. He has the tools. Just a question of how he uses them.

This team has depth. Remember, Daniels replaced Jason Bean as starter, and Bean is still on the team as his backup. Bean is a solid player that could still lead this team if Daniels were hurt (knock on wood). KU is deep at RB. We saw the depth in the defensive backfield on Saturday when both starting corners had to leave the game for a period of time.

That's one of the big differences between this team and teams we may have been hopeful about in the past. This KU team isn't just a guy here or there. It's not just Pooka Williams and hope. It's a bunch of guys that are legitimate P5 talent that can help this team win.

Best news about KU is that they are not a particularly senior laden team. On the offensive 2 deep, LT Earl Bostwick, TE Mason Fairchild, LG Dominick Puni, and backup QB Jason Bean are the only guys that are seniors. Every guy in the RB room can come back.

On defense, there's more attrition, but with the transfer portal, there's a chance to fill those holes quickly with guys that can contribute right away.

Leipold may be on to something that can really grow as opposed to a one year wonder.

@Kcmatt7 said in Just Beat Duke, OK!:

@justanotherfan I would say this OL deserves a ton of credit too.

The hogs up front are legit. I think they might have multiple pros.

KU is improved everywhere, to be sure. Both Oline and Dline are actually P5 capable now. Secondary looks good. A whole legion of backs that are more than able to take carries, with Devin Neal maybe being a star. Solid WRs. Solid LBs. Decent special teams. This is a football team that is no longer undertalented in multiple areas. The guys on KUs two deep could make the two deep elsewhere in the Big 12.

@drgnslayr said in Conference realignment:

So if the Kansas Board of Regents has to approve a conference move, and Carl Ice (member of KSU Foundation) is Vice Chair... does this mean we probably can't change conferences without taking our purple little brother with us?

There would be a lot of pressure on the regents to require KU and KState to remain in the same conference. Not sure if they would draw a red line on that issue, but there is the possibility that would happen.

@Jethro said in Just Beat Duke, OK!:

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He makes a great point about losing small. The biggest game of last year that is kind of forgotten (because of the Texas win) is that KU led Oklahoma 10-0 at halftime in Lawrence last year, and 17-14 after 3 quarters. OU was undefeated and #3 in the country at the time. And KU stayed with them for basically the whole game. When KU went up 17-7 in the 3rd, the Hawks actually had a better than 60% chance to win the game.

Of course, Oklahoma was better and the talent won out in the end, but KU didn't hang with OU based on trickery or flukes. They played a competitive game.

And that was a big sign that we all should have seen. KU was getting blown out to start the year. Lost by 27 at Coastal Carolina, by 38 against Baylor, by 19 at Duke, by 52 at Iowa State and by 27 against Texas Tech. Zero signs of improvement. Then the OU game, followed by blowouts against Oklahoma State and K-State, then the Texas win and two close losses to end the year. In the last six games of the season, KU played pretty well in four of those games. When's the last time you could say KU played well in 4 out of 6 games?

Upgraded the talent in the offseason and now we are here. KU still isn't going to be able to beat the better teams in the Big 12. They aren't at that point yet. But they are no longer the worst team in P5, or even in the Big 12. KU has a chance to win 3, or even 4 conference games this year. They have a legitimate shot at going undefeated in nonconference play.

I thought 4 wins this season would be a significant step forward. To think that 6 or 7 wins is possible is crazy, but a credit to the improvement in the product on the field.

And again, 4 wins this year would be a big step. That means either going undefeated in non-con, or winning multiple conference games. But KU has a real chance to do both and get in that 5 to 7 win range.

'23 class is weird. For a lot of those guys, covid cost them the end of their freshman year and the spring AAU development period. That's a huge blow. I think we saw a similar impact on the '22 class. Lots of guy that just suffered from a lack of development in that window, others that got covid and missed time at some point, or didn't play well, took a while to get back, etc.

'24 class is shaping up to be much more of a typical class.

The thing about the '22 and '23 classes is we could see guys that were undervalued really shine once they get to college and finish developing. Missing that time as 14 and 15 year olds could mean they just see that development curve swing upward at 19 or 20. If you landed the right guys, you could be sitting on a diamond and don't even know it yet.

Jalon Daniels is the difference for this team.

He is the first truly legit QB KU has had since Reesing. His dual threat abilities make this team so dangerous.

And this just raises the national profile for KU, to the point that they could keep this rolling. This team plays an exciting brand of football. That is sure to get the attention of potential recruits. KU won't be a top 25 recruiting class, but if they are top 40 that will be huge for the program.

The other thing you have to keep in mind is the transfer portal. If you see a kid at Nebraska that is about to go through another coaching change, well, that may work into your depth chart. Same thing once the coaching carousel revs up in December in other places. There will be plenty of guys out there as a two or even three year solution to go along with the HS recruits. This could be the start of a major shift as a program.

But that momentum has to continue against Duke. You can't give away a home game, especially with how tough the late season schedule is. This game could end up being a big chance to get bowl eligible, which means a lot for player development and exposure. Going to 4-0 means you need 2 wins against Iowa State, TCU, @ Texas Tech and @ K-State. That's manageable, even if you fall short on the road. But lose on Saturday and now you need 3 wins, or you're looking for an upset @ Baylor, @ OU, or at home for Texas or Oklahoma State.

Going to a bowl this year would mean a lot for this program, especially with so many guys coming back.

Nebraska is just not a premiere job anymore. Unfortunately, their fans are not aware of that.

Nebraska can't go into any talent rich state and be a top recruiting option anymore.

They are probably the 15th choice (at best) for a kid from Texas. Probably the 20th choice or worse for a kid from Florida. Probably the 10th choice (or worse) for top talent from Ohio/Michigan/Pennsylvania. As @Kcmatt7 said, they have almost no in-state talent. They can't just come into nearby metro areas like KC, StL, Chicago and get their pick of those players. Nebraska has no talent base to get players from.

It's a lousy place to recruit to with unreasonable expectations. Leipold would be crazy to take that job.

@BShark

Silas Demary looks very interesting to me. Potential high level defender from what I am seeing in the video. The 2 on 1 stop he makes at the 1:24 or so mark is exceptional defensive ability, awareness and discipline, along with the athleticism to actually pull it off. I'm not sold, but I am intrigued.

@BShark said in 2023 Recruiting:

@justanotherfan I look at you listing N'Guessan and Massoud as starters and realize just how spoiled Kansas fans have been. Because you are right, but they are not good starters to have.

Where did you get N'Guessan starting before though? He had 0 starts at VT according to sports reference: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/david-nguessan-1.html ↗

The biggest thing KSU did was they got athletes and some size. That goes a long way. League will be an absolute blood bath for them imo though.

That was a mistake on my part. I had said earlier that he was a rotation guy, which was correct, but then lumped him in with Massoud and Sills, both of whom had started before in saying that they were all starters before. I think he could start for KSU this year, though.

@BeddieKU23 said in 2023 Recruiting:

They have a bottom 5 roster in all of Power 5. No idea how he's making lemons into lemonade with 1, 1 big-12 level player on his roster

Not sure KSU's roster is bottom 5 in Power 5.

I'll start with Keyontae Johnson. He was, once upon a time, a top 70 recruit, and the preseason SEC player of the year. He collapsed during an early season game a couple of years ago, and hasn't played since, but if he is healthy and at or near his previous level, he's a guy that could play at just about any P5 school. He's sight unseen, but he's a sleeper that could lift KSU from okay to good.

Anthony Thomas was one of the top juco players in the country. I doubt he's a star, but he will probably be an okay rotation piece. Nae'Qwan Tomlin was another good juco player. Probably another rotation piece.

Ismael Massoud was a three year rotation guy at Wake Forest. David N'guessan was a two year rotation guy at Virginia Tech. Desi Sills was a three year rotation guy at Arkansas.

That's five guys that are legitimate P5 rotation guys that Tang brought in, plus a guy that could be an all conference level talent if he is healthy.

Tykei Greene was second team all conference at Stony Brook. That probably translates to a decent P5 starter. Iyiola was a decent player at Hofstra.

Nowell returns for them and should start. He was solid last year as a starter.

That's 9 guys that can probably play at the P5 level, and that assumes that they don't get anything from Cam Carter (rarely used at Mississippi State last year) or Jerrell Colbert (barely played at LSU last year).

That also assumes they get little or nothing from any of their freshmen.

This team is decent. Easily the best looking roster KSU has had since Barry Brown and Dean Wade left. They should be on the bubble for the tournament, maybe even in easily if Johnson returns to form.

By my count Tang has 5 definite P5 level starters on this roster in Nowell, Johnson, N'guessan, Massoud and Sills. I could see Greene maybe being a starter, but those other 5 guys all started at the P5 level before, so I give them the edge.

This team is MUCH better than before. I wouldn't label them as good yet, but the improvement in the roster is pretty clear. With an easy early schedule, they could be confident coming into conference play. A 9 or 10 see in the tournament seems within reach.

@BShark said in 2023 Recruiting:

@justanotherfan If KState wins 6+ games in conference play I'll be impressed. I do think it's possible, if the coaching is good.

Talent upgrade should be worth 4 wins by itself.

Half of a college coach's job is recruiting. You cannot be a great coach if you are a below average recruiter. You just can't.

Tang is clearly a good recruiter. He came to a school that had nothing returning. Absolutely nothing. I assumed he would have maybe 10 or 11 scholarship players. He has a full group, and not only that, he got some real players in that class. Now, is he good with X's and O's. Hard to say. You can't really judge assistants on that because they only have a partial voice on those type of things. He may be more skilled than we realize. He may be less skill. We won't really know that until January or February.

@jayballer67 said in 2023 Recruiting:

Our good ol Boy down the inner State trying to gather a decent recruiting class. - He got Johnson and the guards. Now is in Baye Fall's finalists - If he lands fall like the article said that would be a huge commit for then a legit 7 footer crazy rim protector things could get interesting. Tang showing pretty decent recruiter.

Has to have a hell of a sales pitch to get a kid to Manhattan. Texas Rutgers K State can't remember the others his list keep an eye on

Tang is worlds better than Bruce as a recruiter. Whether he can keep guys in Manhattan is to be determined, but if he can get them there, K-State could put together a very solid team fairly quick. I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn KSU around in short order.

Dennis Evans is very difficult to evaluate at the HS level because of his size and length. He's so tall that he blocks shots with so much ease, but you can't tell if that's skill, or just the fact that he is so big, an advantage that will diminish in college.

He's very raw offensively, but most kids that size are very raw offensively because they haven't developed fluidity, and, honestly, most coaches at the HS level don't know how to actually coach big men.

Dennis Evans has a really high floor, though. He will, at a minimum, be a very good defensive player in college. He could anchor a top 10 defense with his rim protection. And because he doesn't have to jump for a lot of his blocks, it's hard to get him out of place.

His shooting stroke looks solid, but he doesn't have a ton in his bag yet as far as offensive moves. His hands are probably just average, and you would prefer a guy that size to have above average hands because he's going to have guys swiping at the ball constantly. He could be a below average offensive player in college.

He could also develop an offensive game, get stronger and suddenly we're talking about an elite recruit. That's not a guarantee, obviously, but it's not that far fetched, either.

@jayballer67 said in 2023 Recruiting:

@RockkChalkk said in 2023 Recruiting:

Elmarco Jackson is the recruit/player

1st time ever heard his name mentioned

Won't be the last. A PG with that combo of size, speed and skill will be a big time recruit for somebody.

I had some concerns about Auburn because they would have had the best player on the floor in Jabari Smith. They didn't always know how to use him, but he could have been a serious problem in a one game matchup, particularly because we didn't have a great option for defending him - probably use a combo of Agbaji, Braun and Wilson, but he could get any of those three in foul trouble, which could have hurt us.

Duke obviously was a fear, because Coach K would have gotten every call in the national title game, plus Williams and Banchero would have been matchup problems for us (particularly Banchero). A healthy Villanova team could have been a problem as well. That's a matchup that happened but didn't really ever happen. Probably Kentucky was the only other fear because we didn't have a good way to matchup with them.

Our biggest issue was that we didn't matchup against highly talented PF because Wilson is really undersized to go against a traditional 4 like Tshiebwe, but with Smith and Banchero also having good size to go along with their mobility, that really put us in a bind. Iowa could have given us problems for that reason as well. And Villanova just gives us problems because Jay Wright finds a way, but they didn't have enough weapons available for that game.

The thing I like best about Chris Johnson is the suddenness that he plays with. When you watch him, his moves are all very sudden. I'm not sure how quick he is, but the suddenness that everything happens with makes his first step seem even more dangerous.

That shot delivery uncurls a bit slower than I am comfortable with, but he can make shots, so cleaning up form is always possible. I'd be more worried if he were a poor shooter. He's more of an average shooter, but there is potential there.

Johnson could be the athletic combo guard we have been missing. He's a point that could slide to the wing, so I think he could fit into a variety of lineups (especially if the shooting improves). I'm still not 100% sure what the depth chart will look like, but when you can add talent, you add talent.

KU is actually really well positioned. C/O '23 looks to be a bit of a down class. That's not surprising since those kids missed half a year of development when they were freshmen. That's a huge loss in court time and coaching.

But KU will have a fairly experienced group returning in Fall of '23. Harris will be back. I'm guessing Cuffe will still be on the roster. Yesufu, Pettiford, Clemence, Adams, Ejifor and Udeh are more or less locks to return as well. I figure either Rice or Dick is back (probably both). You can make a very strong 8 man rotation out of that group without adding a single player. If KU brings in two guys that can fit into that rotation, they are a contender for a #1 seed, deep tournament run, etc.

The quality of the current roster means KU doesn't need tons of help in 2023. Dennis Evans is so talented, he's an obvious addition if he wants to join up. Chris Johnson could be an interesting fit. I don't love his shooting stroke, but I do love his vision and athleticism. The challenge for KU is finding minutes for any additions considering that it's doubtful Self takes minutes away from a RS-junior Harris, RS-sophomores Pettiford and Cuffe, sophomores Dick, Rice, junior Yesufu - that's six perimeter guys. Even if someone in that group isn't getting minutes this season anyway, or leaves due to attrition, finding minutes for more than one more perimeter guy is going to be tough unless at least two of those guys are gone.

In the post, minutes are even tighter. Clemence, Ejifor, Udeh, and possibly Adams (although I think he plays both the 3 and 4 this year) are all likely to be back for the 23/24 season. Playing more than 4 interior guys is tough, and even if Adams splits time on the perimeter (a tough ask given how loaded the perimeter rotation is this year), there's just not much room. Evans is reason to make room, but even if they do that, someone is the odd man out

There just isn't roster space for KU to grab a ton of guys in 2023. These things have a way of sorting themselves out, but KU only needs to add 2 or maybe 3 players, and even then, the rotation is probably pretty crowded, especially inside.

@Texas-Hawk-10 said in 2022-23 Non Conference Schedule:

@wissox said in 2022-23 Non Conference Schedule:

@approxinfinity Mad respect for Jay Wright after he outcoached Bill Self twice in the the dance. I never would have believed it because Nova had a rep for choking in the tournament until they got over the hump in that elite 8 game in 2016. Of course in 18 it was no contest.

Wright only outcoached Self once in the tournament. KU could've played their A game in that 2018 Final Four game and Villanova still would've won. That team was the best college team in the last 30 years and the only other team that's close to me is the 2009 North Carolina team.

I'd argue Self got outcoached in 2018 because KU should have been able to be at least competitive in that game, even if they lost. At no point in that game did it appear that the outcome was in doubt. Villanova completely dominated a good KU team. Villanova was ready for what KU was going to do. KU was not ready for what Villanova was going to do. That's on coaching.

@Texas-Hawk-10 said in 2023 Recruiting:

@jayballer67 Zuby is not a 5, he's a 4. Zach Clemence has the skill set and ability to play the 4 in college since he can play away from the basket.

If a top 20 player who could move up further is interested in your program, you recruit him because you need talent and depth to win championships.

Agree with @Texas-Hawk-10 here. If a potential top 5 recruit that could be a top 5 NBA draft pick is even remotely interested in coming to play for you, you make those phone calls and set up those visits.

Even if Dennis Evans doesn't improve to his full potential, he can already help a college team right now with his size and agility. But if he does improve to his potential, look out because he could end up being the best player on a college team.

On Dennis Evans, I would drop everything to recruit this kid. At that size, with that coordination, his potential is basically unlimited.

Lots of things stand out to me, but I will only list a few.

1) he's currently listed at 7-1, 210. Just natural development will probably have him at 225 by the time he gets on campus, and once he gets into a strength program, going to 240 is easily within reach. That will change his ceiling dramatically all on its own.

2) He has a soft touch already. That is critical since it is important for big guys to be able to shoot a little to prevent getting mauled in the post.

3) He's quick enough to handle guards out away from the basket, and he's so long that even if they create some space, it's probably not enough to get up a shot that he cannot bother.

4) He's a natural lefty, but he blocks shots with either hand (or both).

Basically, he's got all of the tools already, and you can be confident that he's going to get stronger as he gets older. He isn't as far along offensively, but that is something that could happen quickly because he already can shoot. He could be a top 5 player in his class by the time November gets here.

@BShark said in 2022 Transfer Portal Thread:

@BeddieKU23 said in 2022 Transfer Portal Thread:

K-St lands their 7th transfer in Tykei Greene, SG/Wing from Stony Brook. They still have a few more open spots.

K-St is likely to be among the worst Power 5 schools in Basketball this season. Their awesome fanbase can thank Bruce again

More scraps. But hey, you'd rather fill it out than not, throw numbers at it.

BTW, Emoni Bates to EMU. :face_with_tears_of_joy:

Emoni Bates is from Ypsilanti, so that actually isn't as big a surprise as it may seem. He's just a kid going back home to go to school.

A lot of people don't understand that former collegiate and pro players have more knowledge about their sport than most high school coaches. That's just a simple fact. A high school coach has maybe attended some coaching clinics or a class or two by a high level coach. Most college athletes have taught at those same clinics. Those that had the chance to play in the pros literally had basketball as a job, rather than squeezing in a weekend course during the summer.

I'd venture to guess that just about any former KU player knows more about basketball than 90% of the high school coaches in the country. That's not a knock on those guys, but if you're Tyshawn Taylor, you played high school ball under Bob Hurley, probably one of the ten best high school coaches in the country. You played in college for Bill Self. You played in the NBA for Avery Johnson (NBA veteran, NBA coach, champion as a player) PJ Carlesimo (college and NBA coach, assistant for the Dream Team - yeah, that Dream Team, assistant for the Spurs with three championship rings to prove it), and Jason Kidd (NBA champ, Olympic gold medalist x2). There's probably not a HS coach in the state that has worked with anyone as accomplished as Hurley, Self, Johnson, Carlesimo, or Kidd. Tyshawn Taylor has worked with all of them.

And that doesn't include all of the assistants he has worked with in his time in the NBA and all of the coaches and assistants he worked with overseas. That's why those guys have so much basketball knowledge. And that doesn't include the players he played with, like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.

There isn't a high school coach here in Kansas that would turn down the chance to have Paul Pierce talk to his team about basketball for ten or fifteen minutes. Tyshawn Taylor spent part of an NBA season with him. No comparison in terms of basketball knowledge. HS coaches would fall over themselves to have Bill Self draw up a play. Tyshawn was in the huddle for it.

@Crimsonorblue22 said in Big 12 Expansion:

@justanotherfan do you think our ncaa championship game viewership is a good judge of that or not?
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-04-05/2022-di-mens-basketball-championship-game-sets-single-game-viewing-records ↗

I don't. The NCAA championship game usually has good viewership. You had a great game with two high profile programs. That should have high viewership. This wasn't Texas Tech-Virginia. This was KU-UNC. I don't think that necessarily translates to NIL, but it does help the overall college basketball market.

@drgnslayr said in Big 12 Expansion:

@justanotherfan

Where will our kids be making their NIL? Maybe I'm off here... but won't it be for selling carpet in Kansas City? Or BBQ? Won't that be more localized $$$? Like... would Och be making money on his image in Michigan? I am thinking the big $$$ made from moving to the Big10 won't be going to the athletes.

You're right, they will be making money locally. But answer this - where can you make more money? Selling carpet in KC or selling carpet in Chicago? Advertising for a restaurant in Wichita or in Dallas? See where I'm going. The Big 12 footprint doesn't have a lot of pull in the larger metro areas, so NIL $$$ will depress slightly. If you're an athlete at UCLA or USC, you have all of LA at your fingertips. That will pay more than something in Lawrence. That's the challenge.

@Texas-Hawk-10 if streaming is the future, again, will Jayhawk TV get as many subscribers as a network dedicated to Texas or USC or Cal? If not, the money just won't be there because Kansas is a smaller state than a lot of these other places. That's just the difficulty with the new deals out there.

With NIL, $$$ are key to recruiting because NIL $$$ are going to mean everything. If we fall by the wayside conferencewise, we probably won't be able to compete for recruits in basketball, and that will make it hard to make consistent runs in the NCAA. We have crossed the threshold in the NCAA in terms of $$$. Either have $$$ and have success, or not have $$$ and fail.

Without Texas and OU, the Big XII is kind of straddling the line between a power conference and a mid major, to be honest.

Who's the Big XII's best athletic department without UT and OU? Probably Baylor or Oklahoma State? KU is too weak in football to be the premier department in a conference. Iowa State and K-State are decent, but not a top flight department. Houston and Cincinnati are stepping up, but could be good for the conference. BYU will always be solid, but the question remains on whether they will be a good fit long term.

The conference slips a bit in football, quite a bit in softball/baseball/track. Basketball is probably the only sport where the Big XII doesn't take a bit of a hit. The next commissioner is going to have to make sure no one takes a step back, or that could start a slide towards mid major territory.

MJ Rice actually reminds me a bit of HS Lance Stephenson from a game standpoint. Stephenson wasn't an elite shooter, but was just so strong that he could create space just by being there. MJ is kind of the same way. He's a capable enough shooter (not like Dick, Braun, Agbaji), but he will be a problem on both ends because of his strength and athleticism. And in the open floor, even at the college level, most guards won't be able to handle him.

Remember, Ochai Abaji is 6-5, 215. Rice is 6-5, 225, and he hasn't started college weights and conditioning yet. I don't think he starts this year, but teams should not sleep on him. There will be an MJ Rice game this season.

Baseball, softball and track and field are the sports that would feel the most immediate impact from UT and OU leaving the Big 12. Obviously OU just won the NCAA softball title (5 titles in the last 1o years). UT was OU's opponent in the softball final, so there's that. Texas and Oklahoma both also advanced to the college baseball world series.

Texas' track and field team is one of the best in the country (was ranked #1 this season), although both Baylor and Texas Tech have very strong programs. OU is a top program as well (definitely top 25, probably top 15 or 20). That said, Houston and BYU are comparable to OU in track, so the drop off isn't huge there.

Texas is a top notch volleyball program on the women's side. OU not so much.

Oklahoma is ranked #1 in men's golf. Texas is in the top 10. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are both in the top 10 also, so not a huge drop off, but that's two top 10 teams leaving.

Texas is one of the top programs in the nation in swimming and diving (notice a pattern here?). Oklahoma is strong in gymnastics.

Essentially, losing Texas and Oklahoma means the Big 12 is losing one or two of its strongest programs in just about every non-revenue sport. There are strong programs still left in some of those sports, but losing the competition of Oklahoma and Texas could hurt recruiting, particularly in baseball and softball, where the Big 12 has to compete with the SEC directly (and the SEC just got MUCH stronger).

I doubt the Kansas Board of Regents would allow KU to go to the Big Ten without KState. Lots of politics that go into that sort of move.

You can't discount how much Agbaji and Braun's games complemented each other. They really could play off each other because their games matched up so well. Once they figured out how to involve McCormack in a way that fit with Wilson once he got on track, everything sort of clicked at the end of the season.

Udeh is still very raw. I think he will become a very good player in time, but he has a ways to go on the development curve.

Offensively he is a lob threat and rebounder. He doesn't have the refined moves to go against college big men right now. I think he will develop those because he has good touch, but as @BShark noted, Big Dave was much further along coming out of HS. Udeh was able to dominate based on his physical skills and motor. If you're that big and you play hard in high school, most nights the opposition has no chance against you. In college, he's going to see guys that can match his athleticism and effort, but he has the tools to improve and become a force.

Defensively I think he will eventually be a very good (possibly elite) defensive player. He has to learn about positioning and things, but that is with all HS big men because D1 players are so much bigger, stronger, more athletic than their competition in HS that they don't have to be as refined with their footwork and positioning. As I said above, I think he gets there eventually. He could get minutes this year based on his motor and rebounding.

Ultimately, he could slot in nicely as a 10-15 mpg energy player off the bench this season, with a good shot at starting as a sophomore.

Over on points, under on rebounds, under on 3PT%, over on minutes. Probably wrong on all accounts, but here's my thinking.

I think he starts, so playing 20 mpg won't be an issue. I think that also means he gets shots, and since he will shoot about half his attempts from three, 7 ppg will be easy. I haven't seen him crashing the boards a lot, so I could see him averaging 2.5 rebounds or less. Three point percentage is tricky, but 39% is pretty high.

This year, JCL and Och were the only ones above 39% among the regular shooters. Last year, none of the volume shooters hit 39%. Only Braun did in 19-20. Vick and Lawson did in 18-19 (though Vick only played about half the season). Now, the 17-18 team (a truly great shooting team) had three guys over 40% (Svi, Graham and Newman, with Vick at 37%). That squad was otherworldly good from deep. Those four guys averaged 23 attempts and over 9 makes per game.

All that to say that shooting 39%+ from deep is a high mark. I wouldn't be surprised if Dick shot well, but ended up with 37% from three. If he shoots 39% from three, he's averaging double figures, or he's barely playing. There's no in between because if he shoots that well and plays a lot, buckets will follow.

@Texas-Hawk-10 said in Famous Buckets Blunders:

@mayjay said in Famous Buckets Blunders:

Did anyone mention Josh Selby? My belief he would become a star certainly got dashed!

I will always believe KU wins the 2012 title if he swallowed his pride and came back for his sophomore season.

Selby is another one that was probably mis-cast and miscoached. Self had a habit for a while of trying to make certain guys fill a specific role. He wanted Naadir Tharpe to be Russell Robinson, for example. With Selby, he wanted him to play more like Sherron Collins, but that just wasn't his game. Once Selby started to struggle (and was working through injuries, too) it all just kind of unraveled.

If Self had given Selby the kind of patience and freedom that he gave Remy Martin, KU probably wins the 2011 title. Think of what that win would have done for Self's legacy with two titles in less than 10 years at KU, plus the conference title streak, etc. But Self was still developing as a coach then. He was still adapting his style.

I don't think KU can play Harris and Pettiford together regularly, especially if they also play McCullar, Wilson and a big man tons of minutes. If you do that, you don't have any dangerous shooters on the floor. The only way Harris and Pettiford can play together regularly is in Wilson and McCullar have improved their shooting significantly, and if Dick plays a ton of minutes (the second part isn't really that far out there).

I think Rice finds some minutes because of his athleticism and frame, particularly if he can act as a secondary ballhandler in certain lineups. That allows him to spell either Dick or McCullar (or even start in place of Dick). I'm assuming Clemence is the furthest along of the bigs. I am also assuming that KJ Adams has some role on this team. He's more of a 3/4 than a 4/5, but with Jalen Wilson returning and McCullar joining him, not sure how much time is available in a 3/4 role. But KJ Adams is going to be in there somewhere.

So here it is. Opening night starters: Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, Clemence. Pettiford, Rice, Yesufu, Adams off the bench. Ejifor gets spot minutes. Udeh, Martin, Cuffe barely play. I am intrigued by Cuffe, but can't really find a rotation spot for him, though he could have a role if there are injuries since he can be a primary or secondary ballhandler.

My biggest miss when evaluating talent was definitely Carlton Bragg. He looked like an ideal pick and pop big man. Obviously, you can't tell from high school highlights where a guy is at mentally and focuswise, but Bragg looked like he had the tools.

I thought about Bragg when I was watching the 30 for 30 on ESPN about the AND1 mixtapes of the late 90s and early 2000s. At one point, they asked NBA players if the AND1 guys could have played in the NBA, and Lou Williams and Kyrie Irving both made profound statements after they stopped laughing. Irving basically said that because they were professionals, they knew how to take care of their body and get themselves ready to play every day. Williams said that the NBA requires dedication because you have to play basketball when you don't want to play basketball.

Turning back to Bragg, I think the thing for him was that he played basketball because he was good at it, but not because he wanted to be a basketball player. That disconnect limited his ability to improve and basically doomed him at KU. To improve at the P5 level and beyond, you have to work on your game even when you don't want to. It's more of a job than something you do for enjoyment at that point. That is a tough transition.

@BeddieKU23 said in Famous Buckets Blunders:

@BShark

That's another. Forgot about him.

I'll add Grimes to the list. He obviously got better at Houston but I was certain that was going to be in a KU jersey.

I think Grimes may have helped us win last year's title, honestly. I think Self realized he could have done more with Grimes to help him develop, rather than essentially benching him the second half of the season.

I think Self got to a crossroads with Remy last year where in the past he would have just kept him on the bench, but he learned that we needed Remy's upside down the stretch, so he let him get healthy and then put him back in the rotation, where in the past Remy would have had to "earn" his way back into playing time.

My biggest error was on Big Dave for sure. I didn't think he would fit into the lineup as a reliable second option given how the team needed to play. But it is to his credit that he did find his fit and was the single biggest factor in KU winning the national title.

I was wrong about Dave McCormack. He was a stud down the stretch and deserved every second of playing time he earned.

The question with Wilson (and with several others) is whether he is ready to take on a bigger role.

For Wilson, that boils down to efficiency. Can he average 14 ppg while shooting at or above 45% from the field? If so, that's a win for KU. If he averages that, but on a lower percentage, that makes it really hard to build a top notch offense around him because it will be very inefficient. Part of Wilson's increased efficiency last year was on the offensive glass and as a second or thid option on kickouts. If he's the primary scorer, those opportunities go away for him (and go to Adams or Udeh, or someone else). If he can be efficient even outside that, KU has another top notch offense. If he can't be (and this is the big question), then KU can have a good offense, but it will be inefficient.

The other question is secondary scorer. Is that McCullar? Is that Dick (or is he the shooter/floor spacer). McCullar doesn't have a history of being very efficient either, so having Wilson and McCullar as the first two options offensively is concerning from an efficiency standpoint. I will note that I think both are very good collegiate players and that I think both will play well next season. I just don't know where the efficiency comes from. Harris won't help bump up the efficiency. Dick, Rice, and Clemence are all unproven at the college level for that type of scoring. We could have a good team next year, but they may have to play some ugly ball to get there while they figure out how to be efficient.

This KU squad is a top 5 squad. They need to get into transition though, because the half court offense will be a work in progress for most of the season.

Basketball is largely about having guys that fit into different roles. Sometimes, players can move between different roles, depending on their mindset and skillset, but each team has specific roles that guys will play.

For example, Thomas Robinson started his career as an energy rebounding guy off the bench. He finished it as an All-American post scorer (albeit inefficiently). He was a better fit as a rebound/energy guy than as a prrimary scorer, but he was good enough as a scorer (and was always a great rebounder) to move into that primary role.

Travis Releford came to KU as a big time scorer. He morphed into a defense first player through his career.

Some guys never find their role in college. I think Julian Wright is a good example of this. He thought he was a point forward. He should have been developed as a stretch 4. That mismatch in his approach hampered both his college and pro career.

Every good team needs the following roles filled:

• primary ball handler
• secondary ball handler
• primary scorer
• secondary scorer
• perimeter shooter/floor spacer
• primary perimeter defender
• post defender/rim protector
• rebounder
• bench scorer
• bench ball handler
• bench defender
• bench big

Let's take this year's KU team and fill in the blanks.

Ochai Agbaji was the primary scorer. David McCormack was the secondary scorer and post defender. Christian Braun was both the secondary ball handler and the perimeter defender. JCL was the shooter/floor spacer. Harris was the primary ball handler. Wilson was the rebounder, and could double as an additional ball handler. Lightfoot was the bench big. Remy was the bench scorer/ ball handler. Yes was the bench defender, although because the rotation was perimeter heavy, and Agbaji/Braun/Harris were all average or above defenders, his role wasn't as prominent.

Everyone slotted into their roles nicely. Braun actually shifted from being the floor spacer in years past to more ball handling duties this season. Och obviously moved from being a secondary piece to being the primary guy this year. Wilson moved out of the secondary scoring role into a complimentary role offensively, which helped since he was not as efficient from the perimeter. Mitch kept his role as bench big. McCormack moved from a primary offensive weapon to a secondary one, which helped everyone. Yes sacrificed minutes because it was more important to have a shooter (JCL) than an additional defender given that Harris' strength was defense rather than shooting and Harris was the primary ball handler. Had Martin been the primary ball handler, Yes plays more because you need more defense to compliment Martin rather than shooting to compliment Harris.

Next year's team will have new roles, but the biggest thing is who the primary and secondary scorers are. Once that is clear, the other roles will fit themselves around that and will help compliment that.

I've been heavy on the scoring coming from the new players for a while now, particularly if both Wilson and Braun leave (though it seems like Wilson could return). Our returning players, other than Yesufu, are not really natural scorers. The thing about being a natural scorer is that you can start the game 0-3 or 0-5 and then get it going. If a guy like Harris starts 0-5, he's not going to be thinking he needs to get up 6 or 7 more shots tonight. That's not his game. He's a true PG that wants to distribute, defend and get into the paint when he can. But Rice and Dick are more scoring oriented. They will be looking for their shot because that is their game. I just don't see how we don't get scoring from the new additions, particularly when you add McCullar in that group. That's even moreso if Wilson stays in the draft - I'm assuming CB is gone at this point.

Harris is a good player. He does a lot of things well. A list:

1. Excellent on ball defender. Probably one of the best at KU on ball since Russell Robinson.
2. Takes care of the basketball. He only has 83 turnovers in his entire KU career. He's played in 70 games. His assist to turnover ratio is almost 3.
3. Good passer. He's not a flashy passer, but he makes the right pass to the right person at the right time. Can't ever be mad about that.
4. Good teammate overall.

His singular negative is that he is limited as a scorer. I worry that if he tries to score more, his efficiency will plunge (saw his FG% drop 6 points this year) as his volume goes up. We don't want him to become a <39% FG guy. That borders on unplayable no matter how well he does other things, and Harris absolutely should have a role. Harris wasn't a big scorer in high school or on the AAU circuit. That's never been his game. He's better as the fourth option that he is as the second. Harris will probably have some games next year where he scores 12-15 points (I think 15 would be a career high for him) but to expect that every night just isn't practical.

It's more likely Harris is outscored by both Rice and Dick than that he averages double figures. KU is probably a better team if he is outscored by Rice and Dick than if he averages double figures. I'd rather he put in an efficient 7 than force shots to get 10.

@FarmerJayhawk said in KU/Big 12 NBA draft decisions thread:

Ochai's numbers were terrific. 6'11 wingspan, 2nd highest vertical, 4th fastest sprint. Should put him firmly in the top 10. Really hoping he goes to the Spurs

Definitely a lottery pick.

I'm unsure that McCullar will be back. I think he could slide into a nice role at KU, but his versatility and NBA ready defense could mean he's gone. As I have watched more of the pre-draft process, I think he's more likely to go while Mosley is more likely to stay in college. If that ends up being the case, Mosley may be the guy anyway. I'd love to get Hunter, but I don't know how he fits with Harris, Pettiford, and Yesufu, because one of that group won't see the floor next year if Hunter comes. If that were to be the case, I'd hope Self has already told the odd man out because they will waste a year of eligibility next year in a logjammed backcourt.

If Wilson keeps shooting like this, he's a second rounder for sure, maybe an end of the first guy. Biggest issue is his age. He was old for his class to begin with since his birthday is in November. Then he redshirted, meaning he's another year older. He played this entire season at 21. If he returns, he will be just a few weeks from his 23rd birthday making his pro debut. Compare that to Ochai. He's just seven months older than Jalen Wilson. Christian Braun is four month younger.

I'm sure Wilson's people are weighing that factor carefully. At this point, if he has interest, he should leave because he's losing a year of his pro career - even assuming longevity for him, Wilson probably won't play past his age 35 season, which would give him either a 13 year career if he goes now, or a 12 year career window. Rookie contracts are 4 years long, so his rookie deal would either expire when he's 26 or 27, when he would negotiate for what would probably be his only big contract (a four or five year deal that takes him to his age 30 or 31 season).

I comped him with Kyle Anderson before, and I think the comparison works. Anderson entered the league at 21, while Wilson will enter at 22 essentially. After playing out his rookie deal in San Antonio, Anderson inked a 4 year deal at the midlevel exception, which got him around 9M per year. His deal expires this year and he will have a chance, at 29, to negotiate one more decent deal, probably at the MLE again. Wilson will finish his rookie deal at 26, then get a shot at the MLE. Because he's older, he may not get a shot at a second MLE deal, and may have to sign for a veteran's minimum type contract after his second contract expires. That could be the difference in making $70M+ in his career and making less than $50M, especially if he waits another year, meaning his rookie deal expires at 27, and a MLE deal expires at 31, at which point teams may be looking to get younger rather than signing a more expensive veteran role player, which is where Jalen Wilson projects.

This decision to stay or go could literally be a $20M+ decision for him. I wish him all the best. I will be rooting for him.

Wilson is an interesting case at the next level. He's good, and there are guys that he could model his game after, but his limited athleticism mean he has a very narrow and very specific path to NBA success.

His best bet is as Kyle Anderson. The guy is nicknamed "Slo Mo" and comes off the bench for Memphis. He is a good player at the NBA level, but limited athletically to the point where he can't really be a star, though he will probably have a nice long career.

Wilson is a better athlete than Anderson, but probably not quite as good a shooter, though he certainly could develop into as effective as that in the NBA over time. Anderson developed quickly as a shooter, starting at 21% as a freshman at UCLA, but has been serviceable in the NBA (career 33%). Wilson fits best with a winning team or good organization (think Heat, Spurs, Bucks, Celtics, Suns, Mavs) as opposed to a rebuild (no on Kings, Rockets, Pistons, Knicks, etc.).

The question is whether he's better off starting that journey now since he's already 21, or waiting until next year. If he shows good outside touch, its worth being a second rounder because his draft stock won't improve much because of his age and limited upside, unlike a guy like Agbaji whose athleticism makes it possible that he becomes a high level starter in the NBA (why it made sense for Ochai to return last year but may make sense for Wilson to leave this year).

@benshawks08 said in 2022 Transfer Portal Thread:

@justanotherfan Yeah. If CB is back I'd bet big money on him averaging over 16 a game. I just hesitate to put too much trust or expectations of numbers for newcomers because Self over and over again favors the guys he knows and trusts. I'd argue Yes is more likely to get 7 or 8 a game than a transfer scoring 16+ just because Self knows him and was able to see what he was capable of this year and if he makes improvement, he WILL reward him for that with PT and freedom on the court. I also think Harris could slowly develop into more of a 7-10 point a game type guy.

Yesufu certainly has the talent to get to the 7-8 ppg mark. I just don't see where those minutes are coming from, unless its at the expense of Dick, Rice, Harris and Pettiford, in which case their numbers fall to correspond with that rise for Yes.

I don't think Harris averages much more as a scorer because that's not his game. As a RS freshman, he took about 2 shots a game and averaged 2.5 points on 48% shooting in 16 minutes. As a RS sophomore, he took a little over 5 shots a game, averaged 5.4 points on 42% shooting in 29 minutes. So his minutes went up, volume went up, efficiency went down. If he returns to his RS freshman efficiency, he could average about 6 ppg on the same volume, but I doubt he goes much higher unless he's taking lots of shots, which isn't his game.

You could be right about Self trusting "his guys" more, but if Braun is gone, who takes the shots? Clemence will get most of McCormack's volume. Ejifor and Udeh will get Lightfoot's. Wilson will get his, plus a bit of Braun's. Dick gets the rest of Braun's. Rice gets Martin's (assuming he comes off the bench - if Dick comes off the bench, flip the volume with he and Rice). Yes gets his volume, plus some of JCL's. Pettiford gets JCL's remainder, plus any leftover from Braun, Martin, Harris decline.

But that still leaves Agbaji's volume, which either goes to Mosley (if he comes), or has to get split up between the guys I just mentioned. Clemence is already getting McCormack volume, and unless you believe he's going to be Nick Collison or Raef Lafrentz, that's about the right amount for him. Unless Ejifor or Udeh is further along, they are not getting tons of post up touches because that's not where they are yet. They will catch lobs and get offensive rebounds.

On the perimeter, we already saw what happened to Harris' efficiency when he doubled his volume. He may actually shoot less next year, but more efficiently. Pettiford may well get some volume, but you can't play Pettiford, Harris, and Yesufu together consistently, so someone's volume will get cut just by virtue of a minutes crunch.

So that leaves wing scoring. Wilson will increase his volume some, but probably not much. He may return to his RS freshman year volume, but retain the efficiency we saw last year, which is how he averages more points overall. So that means Rice, Dick and (presumably) Mosley are filling in for Martin, Agbaji and Braun, unless you believe that Clemence and Wilson are both 16+ guys, and someone in the Harris/Pettiford/Yes group is a double figure guy.

I lean more towards scoring coming from the newcomers because we don't have a ton of natural scoring returning, unless we turn this into 2020-21 where we tried to make Marcus Garrett an elite scorer (not his game).

@benshawks08

Agbaji, McCormack, Martin, and likely Braun are all gone. That's almost 53 points per game out the door. That's a ton of shot attempts. Wilson probably won't get a much bigger slice of the scoring pie. He may go from 11 ppg to 13 or so. Dick and Rice probably score some, but I doubt they both come in and average double figures (although I am in full support of being wrong about this). I doubt Pettiford, Adams or Harris averages more than 7 or 8, and I doubt we get 20 between the three of them because that's just not their role.

So if this team averages 76 ppg next season (a pretty reasonable figure for a Bill Self team), that's 13 from Wilson, 10 from Clemence because he's the only inside player that will probably score consistently next year, 15 from Pettiford, Adams, and Harris (6, 4, 5), 17 from Rice and Dick (probably a 7/10 split), and less than 6 from Udeh, Ejifor and Yesufu because there just aren't enough minutes for those guys to score a ton if Mosley is on this team (Clemence, Adams and Yesufu combined for 5 ppg this year). That's plenty left for Mosley, and if KU is more of a 78-81 ppg team, Mosley could go higher (likely since next year's team will probably play at an even faster pace).

Of course, if Braun is back, those figures change because Braun is going to get some of those shots, and HE likely averages 16+, with Wilson and Mosley both in the 12ppg range, followed by Clemence, Dick and Rice all just under double figures.