🏀 KuBuckets Archive

Bill Self is clearly the best coach ever at KU. He's the only KU coach to win multiple titles (I don't count the pre NCAA titles, which would give Allen 3 instead of 1). He has dominated the Big 12 for basically 20 years now. He's clearly the best coach in school history, and that was actually the case before the championship this year.

With the retirements of Wright and Coach K, Self is also the best active coach in the country. He's ahead of Calipari and Few, while Izzo and Pitino seem to both be on the decline, and those that are rising (Scott Drew, etc.) haven't caught him.

For CBB history, he's a historically great coach. Multiple titles seals that. I don't think he has yet entered the top 5 - Wooden, Dean Smith, Coach K, are definitely ahead of him, and when you start to think of Rupp, Pitino, Calhoun, Iba, etc., he just hasn't entered that space yet. He could with a third title, at which point he passes some of the old timers (Rupp, Iba, Smith). But that's still yet to be done.

Does he still have weaknesses? Yes. His tendency to play for the highest floor, rather than the highest ceiling could burn him in future years. This year there was no great team in college basketball. KU was the best team, and they won it, but this team isn't going to be a squad that, year's from now, is nationally remembered as being "great" like the 2009 UNC team, or the 2012 Kentucky squad, or the 1992 Duke team, or the undefeated squads from UCLA and Indiana in the 1960s and 1970s. Self wants his team to be good every year (part of the reason I doubt he ever has a truly bad season). He coaches them to win 20-22 games even if he passes on the chance to win 30 games by playing a higher ceiling/lower floor player.

Self has become more adaptive, and seems to have loosened up a bit the last few years. I think missing the 2020 opportunity changed things for him. I think he may have felt pressure to win the title that year, but missing out on that, and seeing everything that has happened in the world since may have changed his views and allowed him to relax a bit and let the players play. Remy Martin is a player that would have shrunk under the old Self, with Self dampening his creativity. He thrived in the biggest moments under the new Self, and that's part of why KU won the title.

KU will continue to win 25 or more games every year for at least the next few years under Self. He has said before that he doesn't want to coach forever, and I think he has started grooming Jeremy Case as his eventual replacement. Case is at a perfect age for that (37 I think) and has already started getting more responsibilities on the staff.

Unless something crazy happens, Self will leave the program in good shape. KU has a plan for the NIL, so the program should not falter in that respect. There's a ready replacement in the wings, and if Case isn't the guy, KU can always draw nationally because of the history and backing of the program.

JCL is a better shooter than Mosley, but Mosley is a better scorer. Mosley is dangerous from all three levels and can get his shots when he wants them. I would imagine if Mosley comes here he averages 16+ regardless of who all returns because he is a scorer.

I'm still curious on how Udeh turns out here. He's still pretty raw. He may not be an immediate impact guy, but he could contribute big time at some point.

I miscounted Cam, so we do only have one transfer spot. That makes things really tough, because I'm not sure Clemence works without another big with him, and I am not sure Ejifor or Udeh are day one starters. Maybe I'm wrong about that, or Wilson helps offset a potential lack of rebounding. A guard transfer would be nice, but only if its someone that can be a star, like Mosley. We don't need depth in the backcourt. We could use some depth in the frontcourt, though.

@BShark said in 2022 Transfer Portal Thread:

@rockchalkjayhawk said in 2022 Transfer Portal Thread:

@BShark said in 2022 Transfer Portal Thread:

Not expecting any KU players to enter the portal. As of right now, no one is in. Crazy.

This is kind of shocking. At one point, what, there was thought of at least three with a foot in the portal door???

Up to 4.

Winning cures all I guess. Though 2 were a case of people thought Bill would boot them. Very interesting.

This probably means the attrition will be through the draft.

JCL, Cam Martin, Mitch, and Remy were all listed as super seniors, so they are all gone. Big Dave and Och are also gone.

We know that MJ Rice, Gradey Dick, Zuby Ejifor, and Ernest Udeh are all coming. Ejifor and Udeh replace Dave and Mitch. Rice replaces JCL's roster spot. Dick replaces Remy's roster spot.

So there are two roster spots open at a minimum, but I'm guessing KU fills three because Braun is probably gone, too.

If we assume that means Wilson is back, our rotation next year is:

Starters: Harris, Dick, Rice, Wilson, Transfer A

Reserves: Ejifor, Udeh, Clemence, Pettiford, Yesufu, Adams, Transfer B.

I don't know where Kyle Cuffe fits into all of this. Honestly, he is the guy that I can't really figure out. He's a very bouncy athlete, but with him redshirting last year, its hard to gauge how the coaching staff feels about him. He can play. But how does he find minutes with Harris, Pettiford, Rice, Dick, Yesufu all playing guard/wing minutes. That's five guys splitting up 120 minutes already, and we know Self loves both Harris and Pettiford, so 50 of those minutes are already gone.

KU could get by without any transfers, honestly, if Wilson returns. Even without Wilson, they probably don't have to fill that other slot with a big time guy. But they probably do look for another guy either way.

Ross is a very good pickup. No risk because he was basically available for nothing, but a potential elite level talent if he's healthy. This may be the last time we ever talk about him because his body may not hold up, but he could just as likely be in the Pro Bowl in two years.

@mayjay said in Chiefs Draft:

@rockchalkjayhawk said in Chiefs Draft:

I have to admit...I’ve never ever heard of Fayetteville State!
Chiefs took a bigger CB from there. Crazy. How do you scout a kid at that small of a school? :)

From ChiefsWire on USAToday.com:

"The Chiefs had a big presence at the HBCU combine, the HBCU Legacy Bowl and made it a point to really dive into these prospects this year. They were able to see Williams at both the Senior Bowl and 2022 NFL Scouting Combine as well."

HBCU coaching has really taken it up a notch recently. Not just the high profile coaches like Deion Sanders and Eddie George, but other, less famous, but equally skilled coaches as well. This has brought attention to those players. There's significant talent in those ranks, and more top recruits are choosing that route for college, so this won't be the last time you see the Chiefs take an HBCU player.

@Kcmatt7 said in Chiefs Draft:

It was nice to see them get someone they wanted and someone who just landed in their lap out of the first two picks.

Also probably was their two biggest needs and they got them out of the way up top. Now you draft BPA. Just trust your board.

They can address depth at several positions now - CB, WR, S, OL, DL. Maybe even draft another young LB in the later rounds as a project.

Could see KC looking at Kwamie Lassiter as a potential late round or FA signing. He's good enough to get a shot somewhere.

If the Chiefs trade up, its probably for defense. This draft is DEEP with receivers, so trading up to get the third best guy when the seventh best guy might offer similar production doesn't make sense at WR. The Chiefs have also had success finding corners in later rounds.

Where they have struggled is finding edge rushers. Just not easy to find high level pass rushers in later rounds, so trading up to net a good one makes sense. I would do the first trade @Kcmatt7 suggests. I would stand pat everywhere else, and maybe look to move up in the fourth round by packaging lower picks.

I don't think Burns will come to KU. Not sure he's a fit here. But I think he could be a P5 player.

Winthrop played 4 P5 teams last year (Vanderbilt, Washington, Washington State and Mississippi State). Burns got into foul trouble in three of those games (fouled out in all three). He did not rebound well overall (only averaged 4.5 boards on the year), and didn't do much against P5 competition, averaging just 4 rebounds a game in those four games. Averaged 16 points, which is right around his season average of 15.

He shot 60% from the field against P5 (30-50). He has some turnover issues. Ultimately, he's a flawed but effective player. On the right team, he probably excels (a squad where he is paired with a strong rebounder, and plays at a slow to mid tempo). On the wrong team (single big surrounded by shooters) he probably struggles since he isn't a great rebounder and tends to turn it over. That makes him a bad fit for KU, but he should find a home somewhere because he can play.

@jayballer67

A strong 6-9 guy with decent post touch might not have an NBA future, but he should still be able to do good work at the P5 level. He will probably only have 4-5 games that he will face someone bigger than 6-9 or 6-10 in college. The college game just isn't loaded with big guys, and even when you see some of those players, they aren't necessarily super skilled.

@FarmerJayhawk

For freshmen, some hit a wall later in their college seasons, others figure it out. Looks like he figured it out as time went on.

The portal is interesting because guys go to one school and have one role, then go somewhere else and get a different role that is more suited to them.

Imagine, for instance, if Dajuan Harris had stuck with Missouri State and they tried to make him into more of a scoring guard that took 7-10 shots per game. That's obviously not his game. He probably would have struggled in that environment. Imagine him now entering the portal after two years of putting up close to 10 shots a game. His numbers look something like 8.3 ppg, 3 assists, 1.5 turnovers, 49% FG%, 29% 3PT.

We would look at those numbers and say he isn't good enough too play at KU, except that because Harris came here first and was in the correct role, he has played well and was a starter on a national champion. Or maybe he goes to Missouri State and plays the same role for them that he has here at KU, except that because he's the third option instead of the fifth, his numbers are up only slightly, but his efficiency is down.

And I'm saying this assuming he is exactly the same player that he is today, the same guy that just helped KU win a national title, that made a couple of huge plays in the national championship game.

Fit is so important, especially in college basketball, where coaches and systems are so rigid that going to the wrong school or having the wrong role could change the course of your entire career.

I imagine Yesufu enters the portal soon. He loves it at KU, and can play at this level, but he's not going to get the chance to really show what he can do. If he did hit the portal, I think there would be a ton of schools interested. He would be an immediate upgrade for most programs either as a starter or first man off the bench.

The portal is really about finding the right fit. Guys come in wanting to be one type of player, but end up not getting that opportunity, or getting bypassed, or hurt, or struggling on the court or academically, and the portal gives them a chance for a reset. I'm glad it exists, honestly. I had a friend (non-athlete) that went to three different schools before he found the right one, graduated, and moved into a good career. I think athletes having that same chance is a great thing, and makes coaches accountable for the things they promise.

@Kcmatt7 said in KU/Big 12 NBA draft decisions thread:

@BeddieKU23 and everyone can breathe a sigh of relief.

Zags came out of this little run with no championships and look like they’ll be down a bit next season.

They had a nice run from 2015 to now. A pair of Elite Eights, three Sweet 16s, a pair of trips to the title game and a top 5 team in the lost 2020 season. That would be a tough pill to swallow to get that close basically every year for eight postseasons and have no titles. That's somewhat reminiscent of the Phi Slamma Jamma Houston Cougars of the 1980s, who went to three straight Final Fours, and back to back title games, but never won the Big One, losing to the Jordan-Worthy-Perkins UNC team in 1982, the Jim Valvano NC State squad in 1983, and the Patrick Ewing led Georgetown team in 1984.

Weird to get that close that often and never break through.

@drgnslayr @Texas-Hawk-10

I think he could eventually find a spot in the pros, but he has some things working against him. He's a guy that would have been a lottery pick 20 years ago but makes you think about it now.

@BeddieKU23 said in Next Year's Team Thread:

Keep seeing Tshiebwe may return to UK for a multi-million dollar NIL deal. Any truth to this? Wild

Tshiebwe isn't a great fit at the NBA level. Too small to play as a center, not a good enough shooter to play the 4. He's a great college player, but may not find a role as a pro.

I think CB has a great chance to be a long time pro in the NBA. His game is fairly well rounded already. He has shown that he can both shoot and handle on the offensive end. He rebounds his position. While he likely won't be an elite defender in the NBA, he probably will be a solid one. He needs to get stronger, but that's unlikely to happen until he gets to work with pros on strength and conditioning, gets a meal plan to put on weight that won't cost him his explosiveness, etc. And he's no slouch as an athlete. Plus, with his size he can play in any wing combination.

CB essentially took the advice that Och got last year and applied it to his own game. While some may think he wasn't better this year, I thought he took a substantial step forward this year, and if he gets feedback, I think scouts will say the same.

The question for Braun is really if he believes he can move from NBA role player to NBA starter by coming back. If not, there's no reason to return. He has a championship. He has accolades. If improving his shooting and consistency make him a lottery pick next year, perhaps he should return. But if all it does is move him up from mid second round to late first, he hasn't gained much.

Ultimately, with the NBA emphasizing shooting at all positions, there's a pretty decent chance that Braun is a coveted player. He can shoot it, and he doesn't hurt you defensively, size wise, or on the glass.

Hy-Vee also has t-shirts. I think in blue, crimson and white. I think they were under $20, but they did not have a huge stock when I was there (although they may not have had everything set up).

@BShark

Agree on the athleticism part. He is not a bouncy athlete.

I have to give him credit though. He knows how to create exactly enough space with his body, his dribble, and his footwork to get his shots off. And when he gets his shots off, they go in.

He reminds me a bit of Khris Middleton in that he isn't an eye popping athlete, but he can get buckets.

After watching his highlights, I'm not sure he comes back to college. He is going to DESTROY people in workouts. He may not do well against the tape measure, but when he gets on the floor, people are going to have nightmares guarding him. He's an exceptional shooter. His handle is great. He understands pace and spacing on a pro level (underrated skill).

He's hard to guard because he's strong enough that you can't bully him, he shoots 90% from the line, so if you get your hands on him he will make you pay. You can't play off him because he shoots 45% from three. He has an "old man" game in the paint with fakes, shakes, scoops and other deception to score at that level. He will cook people in individual workouts.

If he's in Lawrence next year, this team will be crazy good. But I'm not sure he will be in Lawrence. He looks ready for the next level.

@BShark said in Next Year's Team Thread:

@Bosthawk said in Next Year's Team Thread:

@BShark
I’m now sold on having a real pure shooter. Clearly is need come tourney time. Obviously a shooter who can be coached to play good D, otherwise he won’t see the floor under Self.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/isiaih-mosley-1.html ↗

This is the guy. Very very tight with CB and Dajuan. Not in the portal yet. Declared for the draft to test the waters, has not hired an agent.

Mosley went to HS with Harris. They were in the same HS class, and would have gone to college together if Harris hadn't switched to KU. I would not be surprised if Mosley ended up in Lawrence if his draft feedback isn't to his liking.

Mosley would be a perfect replacement for Agbaji while Rice and Dick transition to college, then you have a five headed perimeter monster with Harris, Mosley, Braun, Rice and Dick. Even if KU doesn't fully solve their interior depth issues, I wouldn't be afraid of going to battle with that group plus KJ, Wilson, Clemence, Yesufu and Pettiford. You're a bit light inside, but can absolutely punish people on the perimeter and in transition.

KJ is really best suited for Wilson's role. He came out of high school with a loose handle and a jumper that needed to develop, so he played where his athleticism was most useful - as a 5 in small lineups. Go back and watch his HS plays. He was a perimeter player as much as an interior one. He just wasn't far enough along in his development to play full time on the wing. But he's a 3/4, not a 4/5. He's the guy that could make a real leap in development. He played less than 200 minutes all season. His athleticism and defense were evident this year. If his offense comes along, he could be a real problem.

Clemence is the one that is a mystery to me. His skill level is obvious. But how does he fit in without a true 5? He would be best suited to play as a stretch 4, rather than having to bang on the interior. Think of him as a less polished Brady Manek - a guy that can step out and shoot, but is best utilized with a bruiser inside to rebound and protect the rim. Udeh probably is not that guy next year, but if the right option shows up in the transfer portal, that could solve that problem while Udeh develops.

If Braun and Wilson are not back, we could see both Dick and Rice starting. Rice is much further along (it appears) with his ball handling and shooting, so he will likely be ready to contribute on Day 1. Obviously, if both Braun and Wilson come back, Rice is probably coming off the bench, but if not, I imagine he starts quickly, if not immediately. Dick is ready out of the box as a shooter, and probably is more prepared to contribute early than Christian Braun was coming out of HS. Figuring out roles of these two will depend on if Braun and Wilson are back, but they will both have some sort of role.

Self probably won't target a guard unless it is a known sniper at the 2 that is over 6-4. With Harris, Yesufu and Pettiford already in house, there's no need to bring in another guard unless it is someone that has already demonstrated they can shoot 40% or so from three and gives you a bigger wing player (someone in the mold of JCL).

KU may look to the portal for a bigger interior player, though. Because that isn't Clemence's style, getting someone to fill that void would be a serious upgrade for next year.

Nijel Pack or Terrence Shannon would be great additions for KU on the wing, though I doubt KU gets either. Manny Bates might be the best fit inside, as he is a top notch shot blocker at 6-11, 230 from NC State. The downside for him is that he missed the season with a shoulder problem, but if he is fully healthy, he would have two years of eligibility.

KU will be good because KU is literally ALWAYS good. Not only has KU made every tournament since 1990, the seedings KU has had are pretty amazing:

Number one seeds in 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2022.
Number two seeds in 1990, 1993, 1996, 2003, 2012, 2014, and 2015.
Number three in 1991, 2005, 2009 and 2021.
Number four in 1994, 2001, 2004, 2006, and 2019
Number six in 1999.
Number eight in 2000.

So Kansas has been to the last 32 tournaments, has been a top 8 seed every time, a top 4 seed for 30 of those (including every year since 2001), a two seed seven times and a top seed fourteen times. So nearly half the time over the last three plus decades, KU has been a number one seed. Not just in the tournament - a number one seed. Two thirds of the time, they are either a 1 or a 2. And every year for the last two decades plus, KU has been a top four seed. They are ALWAYS good.

So the question isn't whether KU will be in the top 10 or 15. That's basically a given at this point.

The question is whether they will be able to get to the stage on the first Monday in April. That is what will be tough. They will be one of the teams that could get to that stage. But it's likely that Baylor will be. I wouldn't be surprised to see UNC in that conversation. Arizona. Arkansas. Houston. UCLA. Duke. Kentucky. Villanova will probably be in the mix. Michigan could be there. Gonzaga depending on who all is back. KU is on that list, but that list includes a lot of other teams.

But KU is always on that list. Just since the 2008 title, KU was a #1 or #2 seed 10 times in 13 tournaments. They are on the list. They are always on the list. But being on the list, and being the only one left at the end are two very different things.

For instance, imagine that Remy Martin never gets fully healthy. Does KU still win the title? Probably not.

Imagine Big Dave's foot doesn't hold up for the entire run. Does KU still win the title?

What if Och or Braun had gotten injured like the guy from Villanova did during the tournament? Championships are hard because you don't have a ton of margin for error. That may not be the case next year in the case of injuries.

But if you're on the list, you have a chance, and Kansas will be on that list.

Defending this title will be exceptionally difficult. KU has to replace four of their top 7 players in Agbaji, McCormack, Martin and Lightfoot. Even if Yesufu and Pettiford step into Remy's role, I doubt they are as effective as he was next year. Even if Braun continues to improve (and returns), does either Dick or Rice fully replace what Agbaji brought? Same question for Wilson. And how do we replace what McCormack did down the stretch?

Simply put, investigation or not, next year's team will likely take a bit of a step back. Look what happened to Baylor this year. They were good, but got derailed by injuries as the season wore on. Gonzaga just wasn't quite as good this year. It's hard to duplicate this type of success in college basketball because you have to replace so many key pieces after a season like this.

Bask in this glory, because its a long way back up the mountain.

@Jethro said in THANK YOU, JAYHAWKS:

Welll......looky, cookie...NATIONAL CHAMPIONS! Thank you, guys for an incredible season. Sorry I doubted you after the TCU game. I think the team broke thru a barrier this year, and our coach broke thru a tournament barrier this year. It wouldn't surprise me to see Coach win multiple championships from here on out. Just flat amazing!

This could do for Self what that first title did for Roy Williams at UNC. It got the monkey off his back and he was able to relax a little more, which allowed his teams to relax in March (and April, when it really counts).

Being MOP likely would have clinched it. More complicated case now.

He has over 1100 points and over 650 rebounds. Definitely not pedestrian numbers, but at a school like Kansas, where getting your jersey retired is necessarily hard, I'm not sure he makes the cut without some individual honors.

That's part of why I wish he had gotten MOP. It would have made it an automatic. Despite my criticism of his play, I actually have always liked Big Dave. He seems like a good guy. He's worked hard to improve since arriving at KU. He's battled through adversity. Even when he wasn't a good fit, he didn't pout or complain - he just kept working. And now he's a champion. I'm extremely happy for him that his last three games as a Jayhawk were three of his very best. He wrote his own perfect ending and deserves the recognition for that.

@approxinfinity said in Tarheels Game Thread:

Thanks unc for being on the road to our two most recent championships.

Villanova and UNC both.

Either way... they are legendary.

Is McCormack MOP? In truth, the MOP was Bacot, but they haven't given MOP to a player on the losing team in 40 years. But Big Dave is as deserving as anyone. Congrats to everyone and whoever gets MOP.

KU needs to make layups. Simple as that.

I was driving to lunch earlier today when a crazy thought hit me. David McCormack could make a case to have his jersey hung in AFH with another strong performance tonight.

Traditionally, KU has retired the jersey of the Final Four MOP.

Lovellette, B.H. Born, Wilt, Manning, Chalmers. All have their jerseys in the rafters.

McCormack gave KU 25 and 9 on Saturday. If he has a big game tonight and is a key player in winning a national title (20 and 12) he probably gets named MOP unless Agbaji has a huge game. We already know Agbaji will be in the rafters someday, but tonight's game could truly redefine David McCormack's legacy at KU.

Tonight, McCormack could go from being a really good four year player to an absolute legend. If you were an MOP at Kansas you are a legend, full stop. The list again - Lovellette, Born, Chamberlain, Manning, Chalmers. All KU legends. If your name is on that list, you are a legend.

McCormack has 40 minutes tonight to potentially become a legend, regardless of whatever happens in the rest of his basketball career. He would be part of a championship team, and he would be MOP. Now, he doesn't have the career accolades of those other guys, but it would be hard to argue against his legendary status because his name would be etched in KU hoops lore FOREVER.

Like I said, a crazy thought. But maybe not so crazy.

David McCormack deserves all of the credit in the world for his play tonight. Clutch performance. So happy for him.

Lightfoot has been very solid. He is in the proper role, and Self has been wise to not overextend either him or McCormack during the tournament.

This is what we have been begging for the last two years - not to get rid of Lightfoot (or Big Dave), but to use them in line with their strengths.

Lightfoot has played more than 16 minutes only three times (twice in blowouts in the Big 12 tournament), and 17 minutes against Miami. That's just about perfect usage for him. He's been effective in just about every game, which is what you're looking for from backups.

McCormack has been even better. He's been used correctly, and has not been overexposed as an interior scorer. He's worked hard when on the floor and has boosted the team's energy (similar to the boost Remy has given when he is on the floor). Huge for KU, and could help boost them to a title.

No way they could keep Hill while paying Mahomes (his contract kicks in next year), Kelce, Jones, and several others without absolutely falling into salary cap hell. If Hill wanted nearly $30M a year (which, given some of the other contracts that receivers have gotten, makes sense) he wasn't getting it in KC, but could probably get it somewhere. It's a business when players get cut, so its a business when they can get paid. Wish Hill the best in Miami, but KC had to get something for him if they couldn't get an extension.

Look at Remy's game log for this year. Prior to the injury, Remy scored in double figures in 8 of 10 games, averaging about 11 points a game. Then he got hurt and battled injuries for about two months, and did not crack double figures at all. All of a sudden, he's healthy in the Big 12 tournament and has been in double figures every game since, averaging about 14 a game.

Getting healthy made all the difference for him.

I'm very confused how Oregon State committed so much money and so many years to a guy who's best record at OSU was last year's 20-13, and who never had a season with fewer than 13 losses at Oregon State. He had two great years at Montana, but otherwise has been a so-so coach in his entire career. Not sure why you commit that much to a guy with a very meh track record.

I think the Morris twins would be great as coaches. They have had the opportunity to play in a lot of different systems in the pros, so they know the game better than most. I think they could do well with player development because they arrived at KU still needing some polish, and definitely not looking like they would be 10 year pros. They would relate well to younger guys, I think, as well.

They have been stars (in college), role players, starters, bench guys, etc., so they could relate to just about any player situation because they have experienced it. And they know what it takes to move up and down that scale.

Marcus will make over $100M in his career by the time its all said and done. Kieff probably makes $50M+, so they each have different experiences in even the pros that make them relatable. Kieff also has a championship ring, which always looks good.

Remy Martin looks healthy and re-energized. A lot of teams will have to update their scouting report on him after tonight.

What Bill Self has done from a consistency perspective is impressive. He is unquestionably the best regular season coach in the history of college basketball.

Self has been in a conference for the last 25 years. In that time, his team has never finished worse than third. Let me write that again. Self has been in a conference for the last 25 years. In that time, his team has never finished WORSE than third.

Bill Self guarantees you a top 3 conference finish every year. Oh, and by the way, his teams have finished third twice, second three times (including one tie for second), tied for first 8 times and won the league outright 12 times. That means, statistically speaking, the most likely outcome for a Bill Self coached team is to win the league outright, followed by tying for first, then finishing second outright, finishing third outright, or finishing tied for second. That's the whole universe of outcomes for a Bill Self coached team in conference. That's simply amazing.

Self has never lost more than six conference games in a single season, but has only won less than 11 games twice (went 9-5 twice at Tulsa, one of which was good for the conference title in a tie).

All that is to say that Self is basically automatic during the regular season. His style of having a very high floor on his teams is perfect for the regular season, when one or two extra losses could mean finishing fourth instead of tied for first.

So why hasn't that regular season consistency and excellence translated into March? Self's teams rarely have back to back bad games, but one bad game in March is enough to send you home. The best Self teams had veterans that Self trusted to take over the game - Keith Langford, Wayne Simien, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Frank Mason, Devontae Graham, the Morris Twins, Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, Perry Ellis, etc.

So what does that mean for this team? It makes me feel pretty good. We have veterans like Agbaji, Braun, Wilson, and even McCormack that can dominate games. Self will trust them to do so in critical moments. When he has had that type of squad, he has gotten them into the Elite Eight most of the time.

Could there be hiccups? This team isn't great defensively, though they can be good. They aren't super athletic on the interior, so they can end up with some bad matchups. But if they stay in games, they can score with anyone and have guys Self will trust to make plays without overcoaching.

This is a Final Four level team. Good draw in the bracket. Right type of personnel and experience. Getting healthier at the right time. Lots of guys that can have a big game randomly (JCL could hit 5 threes, Yesufu could go for double figures in a half, there's probably a Remy Martin game coming, etc.). Always a chance for upsets, but this team has the ability to get to the Final Four, or the national title game. Of course, once you get there, anything can happen, but this team is well positioned for whatever run.

After the first weekend of the tournament, I expect things to pick up in the portal. Most programs will be done after this weekend, so that means exit meetings at most schools will happen next week, then the portal will heat up.

@Gorilla72 said in Conference Tournaments:

Dunno where else to put this. I’ll just leave it here…

Missouri will be on its 7th basketball coach since Bill Self arrived at Kansas. Self is the 8th coach in KU history.

Mizzou should have stuck with Quin Snyder. Hiring a bad coach can set you back years. Firing a good one can set you back decades.

It's pretty likely that the Big 12 teams get spread out. Since the first two rounds are played in pods, it doesn't really matter which region you are in until the Sweet 16/ Elite 8. It helps to balance regions, especially this year, with no true East team in the likely #1 line. Gonzaga will be #1 overall, and gets the West slot. Arizona will get preference on the next closest, then KU, then Baylor. They can safely put TTech in one of the west regions, because the 2/3 line is full of east teams (Auburn, Duke, Kentucky, Tennessee, Purdue, Wisconsin, Villanova). That's the benefit of a #1 for KU - staying away from Gonzaga and Arizona. If KU is on the 2 line, they will be in a region with one of them, probably Arizona.

@Zabudda said in March Madness: Seedings? My advice... plant wheat!:

It also looks like the only change in one or two seeding will come from, KU, UK, Duke or Baylor?

My guess is that the tournament champions get #1s and the losers get 2s, with Duke falling behind UK and KU/Baylor if all three win their tournament.

I'm guessing the portal is close to last year. I would guess that there may also be players transferring out of P5 into midmajors for more minutes and a better fit. I know a lot of people don't like the portal, but I think it gives student athletes the best opportunity to find a good fit, and more than that, have control of their own destiny, for good or bad. There will certainly be people that transfer that probably should stay put. There will be others that transfer and find an improved situation for themselves personally and basketballwise.

K-State fans want Underwood, who I think could be a good coach for them, but there is absolutely no reason for Underwood to take that job. He has a better gig at Illinois right now, and if he can recruit Chicago, he will always be competitive there. He has no such guarantee at KSU.

Also, if KU only has one day to prepare, that means the other team does, too. So there's no difference in prep time. It comes down to the ability (and willingness) to make adjustments when Plan A doesn't work after a short prep time.

If KU plays 8 more games (3 regular season, 2 in Big XII tourney, 3 in NCAA) CB should get to 1000 this year. He needs just 118 points, so if he gets 15 ppg, that gets him there.

For Agbaji, if he gets 8 more games, he probably lands somewhere between Wayne Simien (1593 points) and Mark Randall (1627 points). A long postseason could maybe get Agbaji within striking distance of Kevin Pritchard (1692 points), but that would almost certainly require a trip to the Big 12 title game and a trip to the Final Four to give him extra games.

No matter what, it's unlikely Agbaji catches Devonte Graham (1750 points), but he should settle nicely into the top 20 all time. That's a pretty great career by any measure.

@nwhawkfan

A lot of those midmajors benefitted from being able to bring guys back for an additional year. Veteran leadership means a lot at the midmajor level, where freshmen usually don't come in ready to play tons of minutes. Bringing back experience can help quite a bit, and if you bring back guys that opted out last year, even better.

Last year was a throwaway year for some programs due to COVID, opt outs, injuries, etc. It's nice to see several teams bounce back.

To make it to the NBA at that size you have to have a lot of self confidence because there are a lot of coaches that are not going to give you a chance. There's always another kid that's 6-2 or 6-3 that they think could be better. That's the challenge for a lot of smaller guards. Does Trae Young play cocky? Absolutely. He would not be in the NBA if he didn't. He would have probably flamed out in college at some point.

The tough thing for him at OU was that he needed to be playing with better players. That OU team didn't have NBA or even fringe NBA talent. Young is at his best when surrounded by shooters and lob catchers. He also needs guys that can defend because, at his size, he will always be a bit of a liability on that end. Had Young come to KU he would have been a completely different player. I don't know if the results end up much different (KU went to the Final Four that year), but I think Young would have been tremendous at KU. A team with a ton of shooting already (Svi, Newman, Graham, Vick) and some lob catchers (Doke, De Sousa), plus a versatile defender like Garrett, it would have been interesting to see how teams handled KU.

Like I said, I don't know if it goes any better than the Final Four trip they got, but that team would have been scoring in the high 80s on a lot of nights.

Here's the complicated thing for KU.

Yesufu is probably the best fit with KU's best players because he has the build and athleticism to switch everything out front. Harris, while an excellent defender, isn't big enough or strong enough in certain matchups. Yesufu is finally finding that groove.

Harris is going to play because he has a role on this team and his offense is improving. He has gotten out of the non-threat territory, which makes KU a very dangerous team offensively.

So the question is how to bring Remy back. I think Remy is truly hurt. I think its one of those things that he can go 70%, but not 100%. Since Self isn't going to let him go at 70%, the waiting continues. But the bigger question is can he get to 100% between now and the tournament? I think KU will need him in the tournament as an additional scoring threat. This team isn't a defensive juggernaut, so they will have to be able to score against anyone. There is going to be a night when Agbaji can't get free and either Wilson or Braun is cold. In that situation, KU will need another scorer. Maybe that is Yesufu, but Remy Martin has been a 20 ppg guy in his career. He could go for 25 at any moment. If KU is to win a national title, they will need that during the tournament at least once. If Martin can provide that, even for one game, the work to bring him to Lawrence would have been worth it.

It's easier to ignore a non-threat on offense than it is to attack the same guy on defense in the college game, so playing a poor defender is not as bad as playing a bad offensive player.

Here's what I mean. Remy can only hurt you if you can attack him constantly, and even then, guys have to make shots. If Remy isn't giving up straight line drives for dunks, and a team has average or worse shooters, you still survive that.

But with a guy like Harris, I can hide a guy like Remy on him all night and clog up passing lanes, driving lanes, etc., without ever getting hurt. A sagging defender messes up the structure of an offense.

Typically an offense will attack by spacing the floor properly. Once you have the floor spaced properly, the assumption is that defenders will have to follow offensive players out to that spacing. So if a guy spaces out to the corner, you assume their guy at least goes halfway to the corner even if their man is in the weakside corner. You don't expect that defender to stay in the paint. If that man does stay in the paint, now spacing breaks down because that defender is an extra guy that you can't scheme for. I can't screen off that extra guy. I can't catch them in a bad switch. There's always an extra guy that's just sort of in the way.

Now, we have seen Harris punish teams for sagging too far off him at times, so we know that can work. The issue is that with an athletic team like Kentucky, their speed and length can take away passing lanes anyway, and if they scheme to not guard certain players, you get what you saw on Saturday night. KU was out of sync offensively because they were unsure of where they could attack. They weren't confident they could get downhill.

Now, that's not all on Harris. McCormack and Lightfoot contribute to that problem, too. But that's a part of the issue as well. If you're going to give 25+ minutes to a non-shooting big that also doesn't command doubles in the post, Harris has to either punish sagging defenses regularly or Big Dave has to command double teams to force rotations, or you have to stagger their minutes (essentially, Harris can only play when Wilson slides to the 5 to create spacing). Now, that would mean that KU would play a lot smaller a lot more often, which isn't necessarily a bad thing with this team, but it also means that Harris is probably only playing 18-20 minutes per game, and that isn't what Self wants.