🏀 KuBuckets Archive

@nuleafjhawk

I've used this example before, but in order for KU to succeed with whoever the next football hire is (if indeed Beaty is fired after this year), they need to hire their own Bill Self.

The catch is that KU doesn't have the right situation to hire Illinois Bill Self. KU football has to hire their own Tulsa Bill Self.

We all know Self's history, but I will recount the important points here for convenience.

Self was an assistant at both KU and Oklahoma State before becoming the HC, working under Larry Brown, Eddie Sutton and Leonard Hamilton.

Self got his first HC gig at Oral Roberts and went 6-21 in his first season, then 10-17 in year two. Obviously, KU wouldn't consider him at that point. Self then went 18-9 and 21-7. That got him the job at Tulsa.

In his first year at Tulsa, Self went 19-12, then the next year he took a 23-10 Tulsa squad to the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament.

That's the Bill Self equivalent coach that KU football would need to hire - the 37 year old with just six years of coaching experience and only two postseason trips, no P5 conference experience and a very short history of success.

You have to bet on the future with a young guy like that.

The very next year Self went 31-5 and took Tulsa to the Elite Eight. At that point he had his choice of jobs and went to Illinois. If you're KU football, waiting for that result likely means your target has too many options to take your job.

So let's see who fits that bill (no pun intended) around the country.

There are seven coaches that could be of some interest, in reverse order of my personal preference.

Billy Napier - He just took the job at Louisiana Lafayette, so he's 0-0 as a head coach right now. He turns 39 next week, so he's still relatively young. His best parallel to Self is that he has been an assistant at both Clemson and Alabama, and was offensive coordinator at Arizona State last year. The biggest downside is that this is his first HC gig, so he's hugely unproven.

Scottie Montgomery - Montgomery turned 40 in May. He's currently the head man at East Carolina, where he is 6-18 on his career. He parallels Self in that his first two seasons as head coach were losing campaigns. Montgomery was a coordinator at Duke (his alma mater), as well as coaching in the NFL (Steelers). The biggest downside is that he hasn't had any success as a head coach, although neither did Self prior to his third season. Montgomery is pretty well paid for a non-P5 coach ($1.2M per year), so if he has a good season this year, even KU offering P5 money won't necessarily get him.

Mike Sanford - Former Boise State QB that is the current HC at Western Kentucky. He's just 36, and took Western Kentucky to a bowl in his first season on the job (6-7 as a head coach). He was OC at Notre Dame immediately before becoming WKU's head man. He's also been an assistant at Stanford.

Mike Norvell - He's the head coach at Memphis and will turn 37 in October. He's 18-8 at Memphis, so with another strong season this year, he may be too hot a commodity to take the KU job. He was a P5 assistant at Pitt and Arizona State. The biggest catch with him is that he's the highest paid non-P5 coach in the country, so it will be tough to lure him away with money alone.

Neal Brown - He turned 38 earlier this spring. He's the head coach at Troy and has been mentioned before as a possible KU target, and for good reason. He's been in the Big 12 before (OC at Texas Tech) and also worked as OC at Kentucky. Brown is 25-13 as HC, with a pair of double digit win seasons and two bowl wins. Like Norvell, he may have had too much success if he continues on his current trajectory. Unlike Norvell, Troy is only paying Brown $800,000, so P5 money will be attractive to him (largely why I rank him ahead of Norvell - he will be easier to land with a salary increase).

Jason Candle - Candle's name keeps coming up, so most here are probably more familiar with him. He will turn 39 in November. He's currently the head man at Toledo. He's 21-7 at Toledo. The only knock on him is that he's never even been an assistant at a P5 school, which means he's never recruited at the highest level. He played at Mount Union, a D3 powerhouse, so he wasn't even a high level recruit himself. The KU job is dependent on having a strong recruiter, so hiring Candle will be dependent on how much confidence you have in his recruiting abilities (he has been named the top recruiter in the MAC, so there is something out there to base that on).

Seth Littrell - Littrell played at Oklahoma (won a national title) and was a grad assistant at KU. He has been an assistant at Texas Tech, Arizona, Indiana and North Carolina (all P5). He's 14-13 overall at North Texas as HC, where they went 9-5 last year. His salary is under $850,000 after signing an extension with the Mean Green. He hasn't had the success that Candle, Norvell and Brown have all had, but that's part of the reason I rank him higher. If Candle, Norvell and Brown all have winning seasons again this year, the following things likely happen:

1. Norvell either signs a huge contract at a P5 school, or stays at Memphis and continues to get paid very well.

2. Brown grabs the best P5 job available, or signs an extension at Troy that nets him $1M plus.

3. Candle gets extended at Toledo or gets a big time P5 job.

Littrell is probably available, and he has shown P5 chops as an assistant. He's the closest parallel to Self. He's probably actually Oral Roberts Bill Self moreso than even Tulsa Bill Self, but KU has to take that type of chance if they are going to get a big time coach. They have to get a coach on the rise at the very beginning of their rise.

@DoubleDD

Moore deserves lots of credit for drafting Moustakas, Hosmer, Duffy, Dyson, Holland, etc. and signing Perez, Herrera, Ventura, etc. That built the World Series teams.

But Moore's picks since about 2012 have largely been failures.

I can praise Moore for nailing the 2007, 2008 and 2009 drafts while also recognizing that Moore has missed on his last several drafts.

If he gets back to the groove he had in 2007-2009, KC might be planning a parade, but if he stays on the current path, he won't have a job in a few years.

Several things can simultaneously be true. That's the nature of living in a complex world.

Trump won the election by virtue of the Electoral College, as is dictated by law. That is true.

Trump lost the popular vote. That is also true.

Russians interfered with the election by stealing information, including stealing voter information. That is true as we see from the most recent indictment.

Americans had contact with those Russians. Also true.

The thing we don't know is who all of those people were, and whether they knowingly assisted or colluded with the Russians.

And that is why the investigation continues.

On the line, depth is a big factor. Its rare to make it through the season without needing six or seven linemen to play a lot of snaps. This just adds another guy to that mix.

Poor drafting and player development led to a bad farm system. The Royals are not able to maintain a top 5 payroll, even when near the top for TV ratings and getting strong attendance.

The key is to limit the down cycles. Spend 2 or 3 years building back up after 5 years of being competitive. That's a decent trade off.

@jaybate-1-0

It's all cyclical. Talent will sometimes cluster before re-distributing itself more evenly. Look at housing booms on a local level. There will be a "hot" neighborhood for a few years, then things re-distribute themselves for a while before another neighborhood becomes "hot." That's just how trends work.

Now, of course, there are underlying factors that drive trends. Shoe relationships certainly play a part, along with popularity, TV time, success, etc.

Calipari, for example, had an incredible run of PGs, with Rose, Evans, Wall, Knight going 1, 4, 1, 8 in the NBA draft in consecutive years. If you were a PG watching that happen as a prospect, you had to at least consider Kentucky. To not do so ignored the clear trend of the time. Duke has traditionally had good big men - Laettner, Boozer, Brand, the Plumlee brothers, etc.

The one notable thing about big men is that collegiate big men can look much better than they end up being in the NBA. The competition at the college level is low enough for 20-30 of your games that you can rack up big stats against lesser opponents.

My guess is that we are on the other side of the cycle, where UK and Duke rode a big wave for a few years and now that wave has crested and is receding. Talent will re-distribute before again concentrating in a few years (probably after the NBA rule change) when non OAD top players will gather at a handful of schools, then the talent will again re-distribute. Waves and Crests.

@JayHawkFanToo

The only reason I think there may be more delay is that the NBA has not finished putting the infrastructure into place. Three NBA franchises (Denver, Portland, New Orleans) still do not have direct G League affiliates. Washington's new team is joining this season. New Orleans was supposed to join as well, but cancelled plans for a team in Pensacola for the upcoming season. Portland is talking about setting their G-League squad up in Beaverton (location of Nike HQ). No location for a Nuggets affiliate has been announced.

The Nuggets have had a team in the past (located in the Denver suburbs), and there have been rumors since 2016 about them getting a new team, possibly located in Omaha or the Denver/Boulder area.

If we assume that the Blazers affiliate joins for the 2019-20 season, the Nuggets and Pelicans would probably be for the 2020-21 season, making 2021 the earliest potential non OAD class since 2005 (assuming both Denver and New Orleans actually move forward with their rumored affiliates).

@FarmerJayhawk

The Union would probably want a new salary structure and more two way contracts to give G-Leaguers more chances to earn money. Right now there are 2 two-way contracts per team. I would guess that goes up to four or five in a new deal.

Like I said above, the infrastructure isn't all in place yet to make way for a new deal. The Player's Union would likely be giving up a little bit in terms of revenue to help fund the G-League, and the owners would probably want some of the G-League salary to count against the cap. The only way the players make that deal is if it ends up being better for them overall by protecting the lower earners with two way contracts and incentives.

Still lots to work out on those fronts, but it is coming.

@JayHawkFanToo

NBA rule change could occur in 2020, but because its a part of the collective bargaining, may not occur until 2023 or 2024 when the current CBA expires.

Even if the change is announced in 2020, it may not be effective immediately. There may be a year or two lead time before it becomes effective.

I do expect that the OAD rule will go away, with the NBA creating more evaluation opportunities for players to get feedback. Right now, getting feedback is the biggest issue. Players can't contact teams directly except during a short window to determine what their prospects and status are.

@Crimsonorblue22

He was a low major recruit - UMKC, Central Arkansas, and Nebraska Omaha were a few of the programs interested in him. For a fringe type of recruit like that, having a bad story like that come out with those types of allegations makes it difficult to keep that interest when there are dozens of players that can duplicate your production without a potential criminal investigation.

I don't want to play the what if game here because everything is still pending as far as I know. I just hope it encourages people to exercise good judgment.

@JayHawkFanToo

Lebron already has an entertainment company ↗. They have already had a few minor deals and productions. Lebron will eventually be one of the richest men in the world and will probably own a pro franchise one day. He's worth about $400 million right now, and that's with most of his business enterprises in their early stages. In 10 or 15 years, I could see that increasing, particularly since he will likely make $40M+ in each of the next 5-7 years just playing basketball without considering his endorsements. That should push his net worth well over half a billion dollars, and that's without knowing his investment portfolio.

It's rumored that his "lifetime" Nike deal also includes a large ownership package that could see his worth skyrocket once he retires and exercises that option.

But Lebron's business enterprise is entirely separate from what the Lakers do. Last year, they had a "wish" patch on their jersey. Every team in the NBA can have a jersey sponsor, so if Puma is that company, it won't be surprising.

@KirkIsMyHinrich

I like your lineups with one tiny edit to the end of game lineup.

I think KU will close with a Dotson or Moore-Grimes-Vick-KJ-Dedric lineup. That lineup gives you offense, defense, shooting, ball handling and rebounding. I just worry that closing with Dotson and Moore makes the lineup too small defensively. With Grimes' ball handling ability, you don't have to have a second PG on the floor.

With Vick and KJ as your third and fourth ball handlers, you have plenty of handling on the floor, plus capable shooters at every position. Basically what Villanova threw at teams last year.

@jaybate-1-0

There are a lot of factors at work in the changing recruiting dynamic.

First and foremost, we can look at the NBA Draft in 2016. That draft really shifted the dynamic as far as whether or not you had to attend a blue blood as an OAD in order to get picked in the lottery. Ben Simmons went first out of an LSU team that didn't make the tournament. Jaylen Brown went third from an underwhelming Cal team. Kris Dunn went fifth from a Providence squad that was middling at best. Players from Gonzaga, Utah, Baylor and Washington were also picked in the lottery.

That draft showed that, so long as you went to a school where you could perform, team results in college did not matter. You didn't need to win a national title or go deep in the tournament. Last year's recruits noticed to some degree. Duke was still loaded, but OAD's were at Texas (Mo Bamba), Alabama (Collin Sexton), Oklahoma (Trae Young), Miami (Lonnie Walker), Oregon (Troy Brown), Missouri (Michael Porter), Texas Tech (Zhaire Smith), and national champion Villanova (Omari Spellman). Additionally sophomores from Wichita State, Villanova, Maryland, Georgia Tech, and Texas A&M.

The NBA's scouting apparatus has improved to the point that they don't need players to cluster to evaluate them. There's so much more video of players at AAU tournaments that, even for freshmen, an NBA scout will have 2-3 years of footage on them, and a lot of that will be against higher end competition at AAU tournaments.

We have to remember that even P5 basketball doesn't always provide good scouting for players. Think about a guy like Svi at KU. Playing for KU last year, let's count the number of games he played against NBA caliber wings - Kentucky, Texas Tech (x2), Duke, Villanova. That's five total games. Let's see how many games he had against fringe NBA talent - Syracuse, Arizona State, Kansas State (x3), Clemson. That's another six games. KU played 39 games last year. 28 of those were more or less worthless in evaluating a wing player.

If two thirds of the schedule at a blue blood isn't really critical to evaluation, why not go to a program that is more of a showcase. Ben Simmons was asked to be the focal point of the offense at LSU, where he would have been moved off the ball at a blue blood. He plays on the ball for the Sixers. LSU prepared him for his NBA role more than a year at KU, Duke, Kentucky, etc. would have.

Collin Sexton will be a scoring PG in the NBA. At KU, he would have likely been asked to either move off the ball (Graham would have run the point), or play a combo guard role. Being at Alabama fit more into his NBA role.

Players are looking for situations that will prepare them for the NBA. Sometimes that will be a blue blood (Newman and Svi both benefited by being at KU). Other times, it won't matter (Michael Porter played three games last year and was still a lottery pick). Still other times, going to a place where you have freedom will be important (Trae Young is a good example of this - he would never have had that type of freedom at a blue blood like Duke, UK or KU).

This year will be telling in that regard. Keep an eye on Jordan Brown (Nevada), Jaylen Hoard (Wake Forest) and Vanderbilt (Darius Garland and Simisola Shittu). If those guys end up being OADs, it may give even more OADs a reason to look for fit rather than history when considering schools.

Keep an eye out for how Anfernee Simons does in the G-League as well. If he is successful going that route this year, players like Charles Bassey (Western Kentucky) and others that are wrapped up in this web may go the same route. The NBA collective bargaining agreement can end after the 2023 season, so the OAD rule won't change before then, but that could signal the beginning of a huge change. Until then, talent could continue to spread out across different schools.

There is also the factor that there is a P5 bump in recruiting rankings. If a player suddenly gets an offer from a P5 school, his ranking will rise, while a player that is being considered by mostly mid majors will have his ranking held down. Take a guy like Jermaine Harris. He was considering the following schools - Rhode Island (his ultimate pick), West Virginia and Xavier. No major bump. Then watch a guy like Derek Culver, who was considering, among others, Arizona, Cincinnati and Kansas before picking West Virginia. Harris is ranked 90. Culver is ranked 63. You watch their video and you don't see much separation. I would guess that if Harris had KU considering him, he would have ranked in the 60s. Now, neither Culver nor Harris would have ultimately come to KU or even played much had they picked the Jayhawks. But having KU consider them is worth 10 spots in the recruiting rankings. Having multiple big time schools consider is worth even more.

That inflates some rankings even if guys aren't really any better than similar players that have already signed with mid majors.

Look at our own Frank Mason and Devonte Graham. When no one was looking at those guys, they were unranked. As soon as KU considered them, they became top 100 recruits. Did they suddenly get better than 50-75 guys? No. They were always better than those guys. Devonte Graham would have destroyed at Appalachian State. He would have been a conference player of the year candidate as a freshman. He would have led them to the NCAA tournament and eventually been hailed as a sleeper pick for possible NBA consideration. Coming to KU just moved him up the rankings and got him closer to where he should have been to begin with.

@JayHawkFanToo

Good point.

@Kcmatt7

I agree. For the PG position this year, efficiency is more important than big overall numbers.

@Kcmatt7

There is some pressure on either Moore or Dotson to emerge. With so many weapons, you have to have a good PG to make sure everyone eats. RussRob did that exceptionally well in 2008 to be sure that Rush, Arthur and Chalmers all got opportunities every night.

Either Dotson or Moore has to be able to do the same for this team.

@dylans

Even more telling, compare Mangino to Mike Leach. Leach and Mangino were fired just weeks apart in December 2009.

Leach and Mangino were fired at roughly the same time for somewhat similar incidents. Leach got a studio job, then was back as a head coach two seasons later. Mangino missed four seasons, then was hired as an assistant at a non FBS school. He moved up to being an assistant at an FBS school the next year, but lasted only a season and a half.

Pretty telling that while Mangino claims he has lots of former players and staff that support him, no one has gone to bat for him to get him a job.

@Woodrow

I think that Newell overestimates Vick's minutes. I find it odd that it has Grimes getting more minutes with Vick than without. I would guess nobody will be getting more than about 28-32 mpg with the depth KU has. I also think it is severely underestimating how much Devon Dotson will play. If Dotson is playing less than 15 mpg, I will be shocked. Charlie Moore is likely to see a good amount of time, but I'm not sure he gets quite that many minutes, particularly since Dotson may start, if not immediately then eventually.

KU was probably subpoena'd, but depending on what the subpoena said, they cannot talk about the subpoena or the contents of it, so there's no way to acknowledge it.

We already know from public information that KU has been mentioned in the scandal. It would be a surprise if they had not been asked for more information.

Baseball is cyclical. Right now the Yankees are in an upswing because they have some inexpensive in house talent and were able to bring in big names from elsewhere. But once their in house guys get expensive, they will go through a down cycle where they are saddled with big contracts that limit their flexibility, right around the same time some of the smaller market teams are ready to jump in again.

If Svi plays passable defense, he will have a very long and very profitable basketball career. Even after his days as a rotation guy are over, he can be an off the bench shooter well into his mid to late 30s, which gives him a chance to sign one more contract than most other players might be able to muster.

@Kcmatt7

I see shooting as one major improvement for UK. Roster fit is another. If you look back at your post, you see five perimeter players, with 4 PF and just one true center. UK didn't have a way to really get their best five players on the floor consistently since you couldn't play Washington, Vanderbilt, SKJ and Knox all at the same time (3 PF, a SF and a PG is not a functional lineup because you don't have a secondary ball handler).

This year's team improves immediately just based on the fact that Travis, Washington, Johnson, Quickly and Hagans can all play together in a real, actual basketball lineup. Fit is just as important as talent.

Green is a decent defender as long as he isn't guarding bigger people. Charlie Moore will have similar challenges because of his size and frame. Washington can be a solid defender when engaged, and Travis can be a solid system guy. They will rely on their perimeter guys to be tough since they don't have a shot blocker unless they pair Travis and Richards, but they shouldn't be a poor defensive squad.

And offensively, they should be very good because they added shooting, something they desperately lacked last season.

@jayballer73

As @Crimsonorblue22 said, I wasn't referencing Mangino yelling while coaching a KU game. He was at his son's HS football game and went after the high school officiating crew. KU punished him internally for that, so I can't honestly say what happened to him as a result. How would you feel if you read that a KU recruit was screaming at officials at their cousin's junior high football game from the sidelines, to the point where they had to be restrained?

I specifically said spectator to make it clear that it wasn't while coaching.

The public, profanity laced tirades also did not happen while coaching. These happened off the field as well - once to a parking attendant, once to another person in Lawrence and at least one other time on campus. Again, how would you feel if a report surfaced that a KU recruit had been seen screaming and cursing at a parking attendant?

Mangino's management habits are well known. Again, how would you feel if you found out that a KU recruit was known to be a jerk to the people around him?

And that's just the stuff we know about that happened off the field.

These are specific to things that happened OFF THE FIELD. These incidents are pretty well known around the KU program, and were a large reason why, despite his on field success, Mangino had very few supporters among the athletic department, administration and big donors. Mangino is probably the most successful coach in the history of KU football, but when he was pushed out, there wasn't anyone in power trying to save him. That's telling.

Crimsonorblue22 said:

That's why Perry doesn't show well in an unstructured game. It's every man for himself, he's not wired that way. I wish there was a better way, he's as good as some of those guys that are ball hogs. I know what you all will say.

I enjoyed watching Perry in his time at KU. Unfortunately, he's just not quite good enough to play in the NBA. In the NBA, he's a role player - a defense first guy that rebounds and defends the other team's best wing or stretch 4.

Perry's game is built around offense first. At every stop, he has been a top scorer, but he's just not a good enough scorer to be that in the NBA, even as a bench scoring option. That means he doesn't really have a role on an NBA team.

Basketball wise, Perry may very well be as talented, or more talented than some of the guys in the NBA, but he doesn't have a good fit because his best skill is scoring, but he would not be a top scorer in the NBA.

If Perry wants to play in the NBA, he needs to remake his game as a rebounding and defending player that can defend 2s, 3s and stretch 4s, while also holding his own in the post against bigger guys sometimes. That will make him a versatile defender with an offensive skill set (basically, Draymond Green without the attitude). If he does that, there's clearly a place for him in the NBA. The question is if he can completely change his game to do that.

@jaybate-1.0

Kentucky probably only has 2 OAD's.

Keldon Johnson is the only for sure OAD. EJ Montgomery is probably an OAD, but I wouldn't bet on it. Quickley or Hagans could play their way into being OADs, but I would guess both of them return to Lexington for a second year. This UK team is good because they have talent and experience. Quade Green, PJ Washington, Nick Richards and Reid Travis are all good, experienced players. That's what makes this UK team so good. There's a good chance that their leading scorer and leading rebounder will not be freshmen.

With Richards, Travis and Washington up front, Kentucky has one of the best front lines in the country. Oddly enough, the other top front line in the country is KU with the Lawson brothers and Doke.

Obviously, this doesn't mean that UK will have everything together, but it is likely that they will have the talent to compete.

Similarly, KU isn't automatically running everyone off the floor this season, but chances that they could be dominant are pretty high.

Honest question for Mangino supporters

If a KU recruit behaved the way that Mangino did:

• yelling at an officiating crew while a spectator at a sporting event
• public, profanity laced tirades
• allegations that he mistreated those around him

would you want KU to continue recruiting that student athlete? If not, why is that acceptable behavior from a coach?

BShark said:

Imagine if KU wins the tournament this year. Vick would have EE, EE, FF and a title. That would have to be the most success any player has had in the tournament while at KU.

If that were to happen, Vick might finish his career as the winningest Jayhawk of all time. Currently, by my count the winningest four year players are Tyrel Reed, who won 132 games in his career, Elijah Johnson, who won 131 games in his career, then Sherron Collins with 130 wins.

Vick is at 97 wins right now, and with a loaded KU team this year, 36 wins, while a very high mark, isn't out of the question, particularly if KU were to win the title. No national champ has won less than 32 games in a season since 2003 (Syracuse went 30-5), but since most national title game participants are playing in their 39th or 40th game of the season now, it's unlikely this KU team would have that few wins if they were to win the title.

If this team wins a national title, Vick probably lands very close to being the winningest Jayhawk of all time, if he doesn't end up with the top spot outright.

@KirkIsMyHinrich

If they say offensively, he comps well to Klay, I can agree with that. It's just that when I think of Klay Thompson, I think of one of the best all around players in the league on either end of the floor. I don't think Svi can duplicate that in the NBA, hence the comp I gave to a taller JJ Redick.

@JayHawkFanToo

I think the KU players understand that their role at the next level will be as role players, not as stars. Mason and Graham particularly will be backup PGs whose job is to manage the second unit and make sure the offense functions while two or three of the starters rest. That means getting guys good shots, avoiding turnovers and playing good defense. Their own scoring is secondary to that. Same for many of the others, even those whose primary skill is shooting (like Newman and Svi). They are still expected to move the ball around so that they get open shots because they are the third or fourth option in the NBA offense, not the first or second like they were in college.

@JayHawkFanToo

Cleveland had six years to develop a team around Lebron (first stint). They failed miserably in that regard through poor drafting and roster management. This was before Lebron was involved in much of that. Once he went to Miami, he was entering his prime and rightly wanted a team ready to contend. Had Lebron remained in Cleveland, it is likely the Cavs never make it back to the Finals (no Irving or Thompson draft picks with Lebron still on the team because they would have made the playoffs and would not have been picking in the Lottery.

Lebron returned to Cleveland to win championships, not to do a rebuild. It is arguable that without Lebron's direction, Cleveland probably squanders those picks as well. The Cavs have a franchise history of poor draft picks.

@Texas-Hawk-10

You are correct that Bama led the charge of not wanting the 9th conference game. But the politics of the SEC is somewhat different than the Big 12 in that a handful of schools wield power rather than just two (because so many of the SEC schools make tons of money). The major power brokers in the SEC are Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Kentucky. Because of that, if three of those schools are vocal about something, it's going their way. Bama, Florida and Georgia were vocal about not having a 9th conference game.

That's why the conference title game was initially held in Birmingham (Alabama's request), then moved to Atlanta (Georgia's request, with Florida and Kentucky support). That's why the basketball tournament is typically in Atlanta (UK preference, with Georgia support).

@Texas-Hawk-10

The SEC does only schedule 8 conference games, but that is because some of their conference teams have an in-state rivalry game with another major conference school each season.

South Carolina and Clemson play every year.

So do Florida and Florida State.

Same for Georgia and Georgia Tech.

Kentucky and Louisville.

Those games take place during the SEC "rivalry week" at the end of November, when the Iron Bowl, Egg Bowl, Battle for the Boot, etc. traditionally take place.

For those schools, it's like having 9 conference games every year.

Those games are written in stone for those schools. They don't want a 9th conference game on top of that because it would be like having 10 conference games.

For the schools that don't have that instate game, they typically schedule another major conference opponent instead.

A&M is playing Clemson this year. Bama has Louisville. Auburn has Washington. Ole Miss plays Texas Tech. Mississippi State plays K-State. LSU plays Miami. Mizzou plays Purdue. Tennessee gets West Virginia. Vandy gets Notre Dame.

The only school that doesn't have another major conference opponent this season is Arkansas. Saying its easier in the SEC is not true, unless you were to take the Bill Snyder approach to scheduling every year (something that is frowned on in the SEC because so many schools schedule a power conference opponent).

@KirkIsMyHinrich

Comping him to Klay Thompson seems a little much right now. Klay is an elite defender in the NBA. I haven't seen anything to indicate that Svi is on track for that. Bigger JJ Redick seems a more likely landing spot for Svi, which isn't a bad place to be, because that's still a decade long career making good money.

I don't know that Lebron has "control" so much as teams should surround him with players that best compliment his skills (i.e., shooters and rim runners) as role players. The problem is that Cleveland never did a good job in the draft, so their role players were always more expensive. Poor drafting killed Cleveland. Miami was more sustainable because they drafted better (Chalmers and Cole were both Heat picks), but Bosh's health and Wade's age undid that group.

Cleveland has always been poorly run.

We will see if the Lakers are run well or not.

Chances are Kemba Walker gets moved by Charlotte at some point, so Devonte may get a chance to start this year after the ASB. Devonte has an opportunity to slot himself in as a fringe starter on a potential playoff team down the line, although I doubt Charlotte goes anywhere this season.

KU is bad.

K-State is not.

The overall quality of the programs is enormously different. KSU has solid line play on both sides of the ball. KU does not. KSU has solid players throughout the two deep. KU has holes in the two deep, sometimes at starting positions.

KSU has a strong walk on program. KU does not.

KU football is, right now, one of the five worst programs in D1, not just in terms of overall talent, but in terms of overall program quality, from depth, roster development, talent, walk on program - you name it, KU football is probably in the bottom 20 in the nation, and certainly bottom 5 among power 5 schools.

Some of that is on Beaty to be sure. But some of that runs deeper than Beaty. Charlie Weis literally hollowed out the program. He DESTROYED relationships in the Kansas City area that still have not been rebuilt at high schools like Rockhurst, Olathe North, Blue Springs South, Blue Valley, etc. The "pile of crap" comment was made by Weis, but it should have been condemned by KU Athletics. It was not. That created a rift that has not been bridged, and other programs have taken advantage of that fact.

Regardless of where KU football goes from here, the relationship needs a complete reset within the Kansas City metropolitan area among the football programs there.

Greene should have transferred same time as White (after his freshman year). Greene was a better player and I have no doubt had he gone to another P5 school, he would have been a top scorer for them in the same way that White emerged as a stud for Nebraska and Syracuse.

@JayHawkFanToo and @Kcmatt7

You both make good points about that series. I think it certainly plays out differently if Irving and Hayward are available.

As @BShark said, stats get displaced. Playing time is re-distributed. That changes things.

While Irving is a tremendous offensive player, he is not nearly as stout defensively as Rozier was. Perhaps George Hill or Jordan Clarkson can get their offense going more against Irving than they were able to against Rozier.

Lebron is going to get his against whomever they put on him. But adding a couple of lesser defenders in Irving and Hayward to replace minutes for guys like Tatum, Brown and Rozier means that the Cleveland supporting cast might have added a bit more help. That's not an insignificant addition in Cleveland's favor to have Jeff Green or Rodney Hood playing well in that series.

Ultimately, I think the Lebron factor still tilts that Series in Cleveland's direction. Giving him the potential for a little bit more support helps him conserve energy, which I think helps Cleveland pull through in seven.

Les Miles would only come if guaranteed a nice salary and knows that he will be here for exactly 4 or 5 years. He's a get back on track type of coach. He won't be the long term answer, but could right the ship. Of course, that also means that you ultimately have to make another good hire down the line to replace him when he retires.

Bielema is an interesting option. He could certainly raise KU's profile and he is young enough that he legitimately could stay at KU for several years. He was very successful at Wisconsin, and his Wisconsin success is a bit of a model of what KU is capable of - consistent winning, with a chance to win the conference every few years. The only knock on him is that he may not be a strong recruiter, and KU doesn't have tons of in-state talent (or the attraction of being the only D1 option in state) to supply the program.

Ultimately, KU football is a very unique program. It's from a state that does not produce much D1 talent, which makes it similar to Iowa, Nebraska and other upper plains and upper Rockies states. However, it is also in a state with two major conference programs, which makes it most similar to Iowa. KU's only real hope to improve its football program is to lock down the KC metro area from a recruiting standpoint. Kansas City produces enough D1 talent that a solid coach can build a team around.

That's the only way forward for KU that I can see. Grab the best talent in Kansas City, combine that with talent from Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma and stay competitive. Trying to outrecruit the national powers like LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma in their own backyard is a losing strategy.

Allen will get his jaw broken doing that on some lonely December night in the G League. He's lucky none of the Hawks sent a right hook for targeting their first round draft pick. He will be out of basketball in three years if he keeps that up. He's not good enough to justify dealing with that crap.

@BShark

I'm the same way. I watch more NBA than college. My breaking point with the college game came a few years ago while watching a tournament game.

I don't remember who was playing, I think it was a Big 12 team, but it may have been someone else. It was deeper into the tournament, probably a Sweet 16 game or Elite Eight game.

Either way, someone ran a high PnR, there was some defensive confusion and the other team's center got switch onto the PG, and the PG got switched onto the C.

Obviously, this is a matchup you want to attack immediately, either using the PG's quickness advantage on the perimeter or throwing the ball inside to let the C use his size. Instead, the PG backed the ball out and called a play that the coach was screaming from the sidelines. That delay gave the defense a chance to switch their matchups so that there weren't any mismatches.

I couldn't believe what I had just seen. The coach had willingly forfeited a MUA so that he could run a specific play. It bothered me so much I had to quit watching the game.

Probably the next week I was watching an NBA game and a similar thing happened. High PnR, got the switch. Literally before I could even think mismatch the ball was in the hands of the big man (pretty sure it was Dirk Nowitzki) and he was scoring over the mismatch. The PnR created the mismatch, the offense pressed the advantage and scored, all in less than three seconds. It was beautiful to watch.

I will watch KU and the tournament, but it is hard to watch other games.

One thing that we probably aren't talking about enough with Jeff Long is taking into account the entire athletic department.

Arkansas baseball is consistently one of the top programs in the country. They have gone to the College World Series several times, most recently 2012, 2015 and this season.

The track team is one of the best in the country, with a national title in 2008 and multiple conference triple crowns (indoor, outdoor and cross country titles in the same season). Both the mens and womens programs are successful.

The golf team finished second in the nation in 2009.

KU has often been mens basketball only from an athletic department success standpoint. Long has overseen a department that had success in multiple sports over several years. Perhaps he can help KU with that as well. These are non-revenue sports, but when non-revenue sports get closer to being in the black, the entire athletic department is stronger and healthier as a result.

@JayHawkFanToo

I agree with your basic point that the best HS players (the ones that go on to college) can shift around more than they can as they move up the ladder.

That said, Vick played a ton of minutes last year, and as one of KU's best athletes, he was often asked to play PF because of KU's lack of depth up front. Last year was probably the worst year for him to get minutes because he was being asked to play up front quite a bit. KU had no lineup where they were better served moving Vick to PG.

These last several KU teams have been guard heavy, but very light up front. If Sam Cunliffe was 6-8 or 6-9, he would have played 18 mpg last season.

Texas Hawk 10 said:

Combine that with his football hires being less than stellar, Bobby Petrino sleeping with a volleyball player and having another mistress while at Arkansas, Bret Bielema was not good as well.

Bielema on paper was a good hire. Unfortunately, he wasn't ready to make the jump from the Big 10 to the SEC from a recruiting and speed perspective. His last three Wisconsin teams went to the Rose Bowl (although the last squad wouldn't have gone had Penn State and Ohio State both not been under sanctions). Also, coaching in the SEC West with Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M all in your division isn't exactly a picnic.

As for Petrino, you can't hold Long responsible for Petrino's personal issues. And once that stuff came out, he had to get rid of him because there was misuse of department funds and an inappropriate relationship with another student athlete (either one is a fireable offense, so pick your reason here).

The challenge of going undefeated is conference play. In every conference, there is at least one road game where a team just doesn't play well, usually two.

For KU, that's Morgantown and Stillwater.

For Gonzaga, it's St. Mary's.

For Kentucky, it's Gainesville or one of their random trips to the SEC West.

For Duke and UNC, it's each other.

For Arizona, it's the NoCal trip (Stanford/Cal).

It's pretty rare for each of those teams to survive those games I just listed unscathed.

The same is true for mid majors. There's a nightmare roadtrip in there that they just struggle with.

And even if you survive those games, you still have six progressively harder games in March to deal with.

The three best teams of the last decade (2012 Kentucky, 2015 Kentucky and 2018 Villanova) all had their issues. 2012 UK lost two games, a buzzer beater to Indiana and a loss in the SEC title game (going for their third win of the season over a good Vanderbilt squad). 2015 Kentucky made it through the regular season unbeaten, but ran into the best Wisconsin team in the history of their program. 2018 Villanova was a juggernaut, but they lost four games (at Butler, at Providence, at Creighton and that bizarre loss to St. Johns when the Red Storm were briefly the best team in the country - losing by only 5 to Xavier, then beating Duke, Villanova, Marquette and DePaul consecutively to break an 11 game losing streak).

College hoops is just too weird. A team can randomly get hot from three because the shorter three point line introduces more randomness. A guy can randomly get hot because college defenses aren't geared to stopping one guy often times. A matchup can go unexploited because college offenses aren't always geared to exploiting a mismatch, or players aren't skilled enough to fully exploit a mismatch.

That makes it hard to just assume a team with more talent will automatically win. And that makes going undefeated as dependent on luck as it does on talent.

@jayballer73

Absolutely agree. Frank should be in the league for a decade or more if he stays healthy. He may never start, but he should become a very good backup, and may even win a title if he lands in the right spot.

NBA Summer League is more about guys playing for specific roles. It's nice, for example, that Svi is scoring, but the more important thing is whether he is making threes off kick outs. I would almost ignore every other stat for Svi, because he's not going to be in the role of a big scorer for the Lakers once the season starts.

Same for Selden, although he may be able to have an expanded role for Memphis. It's generally a bad sign for a guy that is not entering his first or second season to be at summer league, however. That may mean that player is behind the development curve that the team has set out for them, so its good that Selden is playing well, as many more experienced players on summer league rosters end up not making the team ultimately.

Mason's role should shift more to facilitating rather than scoring. That will be his role in the regular season, so that is where his focus should be now, also.

If I had to pick a national champion today, with no other information, I would pick either Kansas, Duke, or Kentucky. Obviously, all of those teams lost a lot of talent from last season, but all of those teams also have a lot of talent for the coming season.

Now maybe someone else emerges to win the title, but If I were a betting man, I would put money on any of those three squads before I put money on the field.

Undefeated? Let's look at that schedule:

Starting with Michigan State won't be easy, as Izzo always has his squad ready. Still, this squad won't resemble the team Izzo had this past year. KU has a talent advantage here, and should win this game.

We're lumping home games with Vermont, Louisiana , Wofford and Eastern Michigan together because those are wins. Moving on.

The NIT could get interesting. Tennessee will be solid, and Louisville will be feisty. Marquette should also be decent. KU ultimately will only face two of those. No easy wins there, but those two games should still result in two wins.

Stanford and New Mexico State could both be challenging. That NMSU game especially is tricky because its the always dangerous pre-Finals game. KU is still better than both of these teams though. Those should be wins. The game against South Dakota should also be a W, although I figure South Dakota will give KU a run for at least a half.

That leaves three non-conference games - home for Villanova, in Tempe with Arizona State and in Lexington for Kentucky. First things first, Arizona State is going to pay dearly for what they did last year. There's no way around it.

But Villanova and Kentucky are going to be a problem. I think KU is certainly good enough to win both of those games. I just don't think it's likely that they will. KU should be favored against Villanova, and the Wildcats aren't as loaded as they were this year, but Jay Wright isn't showing up in Lawrence with nothing. Going to Lexington isn't going to be a joke, either. Calipari is going to have his squad ready to go, and they can match KU talent for talent. I say KU beats Villanova at AFH, but that UK game at Rupp is a toss up at best.

Add in that the conference schedule will have all of its usual challenges (trip to Morgantown, trip to Stillwater, trip to Manhattan, trip to Ames), where solid or better teams will await KU. I honestly don't see KU going undefeated in conference, let alone the entire season.

Put me down for KU having four losses.

@Woodrow

Not unless Simmons finds a jump shot or Fultz gets healthy/good at basketball again.

They are just too easy to defend in the playoffs because most of their guys are one dimensional offensively.

@stoptheflop

Guaranteed? No.

Probable? Yes.

The most likely starting lineup is Dotson-Grimes-KJ-Dedric-Doke.

I could certainly see some other lineups (swap Moore for Dotson above, or swap Vick for KJ above, or both), but I think Doke factors in because he is such a big matchup advantage against most teams.

Of course, you still have De Sousa in the mix, and I could certainly see him mixed into that, but I can't see him starting over Dedric. Grimes is just too talented not to play. I think KJ forces his way into the lineup also.

The only guys that probably are disappointed about Vick's return are Cunliffe and Agbaji. Agbaji almost certainly won't see much, if any action this year now. Cunliffe saw his chances at minutes sliced in half. But I don't think anyone else would have changed their minds.

And ultimately, I don't think Self is in the same situation as Coach K was with Carter because everyone that did come to KU already knew that KU was pursuing Romeo Langford hard. So there was a scenario where Langford picks KU rather than Indiana and both Cunliffe and Agbaji are in the same position they are in now.

Maybe Cunliffe would have transferred at the end of the Spring Semester, but he would have had to transfer down to D2 to play immediately, otherwise he loses a whole year of eligibility. Plus, Cunliffe still could transfer out and be eligible to play at the D2 level.

The Agbaji situation is more straightforward to me. He picked KU knowing Grimes was coming, Langford was being recruited, and Cunliffe was already here. He knew that he was behind Grimes and would be behind Langford. When Agbaji picked KU, there was no sign that Vick was even contemplating leaving (Agbaji declared in February). It wasn't even assured that Newman was leaving.

I could see guys being disappointed that they have thought for two months that they would be getting more time with Vick (and Langford) out of the picture, but I don't think they were misled at the time of their decisions because the facts at the time they made their choices had Vick still very much in the picture.

Lakers making sure they have the cap space in 2019 to sign two star players.

Good move by Golden State to sign Cousins. He's a rare player that could come back from Achilles surgery and return to close to form because he isn't an explosive player. His game is predicated around speed and quickness, or explosive leaping ability like a Blake Griffin or Anthony Davis. Because of that, he could still be effective provided there are no other lingering effects like lack of flexibility, etc.

Next years finals are shaping up to be Golden State and Boston. I don't see anyone in the East that can challenge Boston unless the Bucks or Pacers have someone internally take a big leap. And Golden State with Cousins certainly did not take a step back. Lebron doesn't have enough help in LA right now to challenge them. I'm guessing Lebron will take it easy this year, see which of the younger Laker players develops and then bring in help for 2019-20.

@JayHawkFanToo

LiAngelo isn't good enough to get run in the NBA summer league, bottom line. Lonzo and LaMelo are the ones with the talent. If this was LaMelo that was being talked about, the Lakers would have tolerated it.

My guess is that once LaMelo makes it to the NBA, Papa Ball will fade back into obscurity. Right now, he's making good money promoting his sons. LiAngelo probably would have ranked in the 200s but for Lonzo and Papa Ball. He's just not as good as his brothers.

Instead, he's probably going to make a little money playing basketball overseas until LaMelo makes it to the NBA, then he will "retire" and his dad will end the charade.