🏀 KuBuckets Archive

@Statmachine
A few years ago I did some research on PF and C that went in the lottery. The averages for those players in their last year of college was somewhere around 14 points and 7 rebounds. That happens mostly because you end up with a guy like Aaron Gordon playing on a loaded Arizona team where he just doesn't score a ton of points, but he gets his boards.

I think on a KU team like the one we have, Alexander probably won't score a ton. If I told you right now that Oubre, Ellis and Selden averaged 14, 14 and 12 points, respectively, I don't think I would get too much argument. If I went further and said that whoever the starting PG is averaged 7 points a game, that's not outlandish. If I said the backup big men (Traylor and probably Mickelson) would combine to average about 11 a game, that wouldn't be a shock, either. If the backup PG and Greene combined for about 10 a night that gives you 68 points. Bill Self teams dial in the scoring between 78 and 81, which means that Alexander gets between 10 and 13. I put him on the low end of that because I actually think both Ellis and Oubre will score a bit more than I've predicted here, but 11 and 8 is roughly what Embiid did last season (11.2, 8.1). Of course, Embiid blocked more shots (roughly an extra block and a half per game, but if Alexander goes 11, 8 and 1.5, he's still a lottery pick playing on a stacked team.

@drgnslayr I think Cleveland is definitely a "present threat" moreso than a "future threat."

As you stated, Wiggins will almost certainly be a very good defender, with the possibility of being an all time elite defender. However, if his offense does not keep pace with that, he will never be a top NBA player. Pippen was always a great defender, but until he became a better scorer he wasn't an elite wing.

Jordan was a top notch defender. Lebron is a top defensive player. Kobe was, particularly early in his career. So was Gary Payton. But the reason that they were top players was that they combined a high level of offense as well.

They talk in the NBA all the time about two-way players. In order to really excel in the NBA you have to have two way players. Kevin Love, for example, is a poor man to man defender, but he makes up for his lack of one on one defensive skills by being an elite rebounder. Kevin Love may not be a rim protector, but he helps his team finish possessions by securing the board. In fact, Love was third in overall rebounding, but #1 in defensive rebounding. In fact, in every season in which he has qualified other than his rookie year, he has finished either first or second in defensive rebounding.

Can Wiggins be a two way player, or is he going to be an incredible defensive player that struggles to be anything more than a set shooter and transition scorer? And even if he does, will he become a 2 way player the caliber of Kevin Love? Right now Kevin Love has 3 elite NBA skills - rebounding, passing and scoring. Wiggins has two - athleticism and defense, and we haven't actually seen him be an elite NBA defender, although he should be at least very good.

Like I said, for the Cavs, their current situation is to push for the playoffs and championships. If I were presented the same question for a team like the Sixers, Magic or Jazz, my answer would be different because those teams are in no position to make a run in the playoffs right now. Their best option is to build for the future.

I think we can expect Alexander to be a highly productive rebounder and shot blocker. I would put him down for 8 boards and 1.5 blocks per game. He's not going to be an Embiid/Withey/Aldrich type, but he is going to protect the most important three feet very well.

I also think he will shoot a high percentage, although I don't think he will be a big time scorer. Probably 9-11 points per game, but on 60% or better shooting. He's not a jump shooter and I don't think he will try to be. He's a Power Forward in every sense of the word.

I think KU's season is directly tied to Perry Ellis' role on the team. If Perry Ellis is the third or fourth best player on this team, they could have a very deep run into the NCAA tournament. If Perry Ellis is the best or second best player on this team, I don't think they can make a deep run.

I have determined that the best two players on an NCAA champion need to have NBA futures. They don't have to have futures as NBA stars, but they have to have futures in the league. I know a lot of people on here have toyed with whether or not Ellis has an NBA future. I am of the opinion that he won't be an NBA player, but as a collegiate player, he is bound for a very strong career, potentially even an all time level when it comes to career stats at KU (1500 points, 800 rebounds are within reach for Perry).

I think KU needs big seasons from it's three NBA guys (Selden, Oubre, Alexander). If it gets that type of production, it will be a fun year. If not, there just won't be enough firepower.

If I were the Cavs in their current situation I would absolutely trade Embiid for Love. We already know that Embiid probably won't play much (if at all) next season due to injuries. For a team like the Cavs, their window of opportunity is here in the present, so potential future gains from Embiid are somewhat tempered by not being able to get that return in the present when their team is the strongest.

Ten years from now, I think Embiid is probably a better player if he is healthy. The rarity of his skillset almost guarantees that he would be the better player. You're basically talking about a taller and possibly more athletic Kevin Garnett here. That's a sure fire hall of famer if he's at full health. For Wiggins, he's an athletic marvel, but when you talk about wing players, there will always be tons of super athletic wing guys in the NBA. As I've said in other posts, I would comp Wiggins' best case as a better version of Paul George or a more athletic Scottie Pippen. Either one of those outcomes makes him an elite NBA player. But a taller, more athletic Kevin Garnett is literally something that we have never seen before. Maybe Wilt, but it is a tough comparison because the game was less athletic overall at that time.

On the other hand, you have to at least look at the worst case for both players. Worst case for Wiggins is that he becomes an above average (but non elite) defender that never quite figures out his offensive game and becomes a very good wing on a playoff type team who, if surrounded by another star or two could play for a champion. For Embiid, his worst case is Greg Oden, or a career arc similar to Bill Walton - basically a couple of tremendous seasons, then basically derailed by injuries. I think no matter what, if Embiid can play he will be a great player, but big man injuries are always a huge risk.

If I had the first pick in the draft as the Cavs, and I was in their position at the time (i.e., not knowing that Lebron was returning), I likely would have packaged that pick with Bennett for Love in the first place. If I had to keep the pick I would have probably taken either Wiggins or Parker.

@DoubleDD

I think the Spurs are a great example of this, but I think to make the comparison work, we have to look at the Spurs prior to acquiring Tim Duncan.

In 1987 the Spurs drafted David Robinson #1 overall. He didn't start playing with them immediately due to military service, but when he did he quickly became a top player in the NBA and led the Spurs to the playoffs just about every season. However, the Spurs never advanced further than the Western Conference Finals during that time. They never really got themselves into that group of championship contenders. They were good every year, but they never crossed from good to great.

It wasn't until they were able to pair Robinson and Duncan together for a couple of years that they broke through and won their first title. Of course, after that they were stifled by the Lakers for a few years, but then they won another title with Duncan and Robinson. But the only reason they were able to win that 2003 title was because they went out and got Stephen Jackson (pre-Palace brawl) and a couple of other pieces (including a very young Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili) to help out. Without Jackson, Ginobili and Parker they don't win that 2003 title. They probably end up returning to the level that San Antonio was at through the early and mid nineties, as a solid but not championship level team.

If you have a chance to get better parts, you do it because the window could slam shut at any moment. What if Derrick Rose comes back at an MVP level playing with Joakim Noah, Kevin Love and others? What if Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Russell Westbrook explode out west and turn into a dynasty? You can't assume that everything will remain static. It won't. So either you move forward or your opponents pass you.

I'd love to see what Wiggins, Lebron and Irving could do. It could make for some really fun 3 on 2 fast breaks. But I think Cleveland can get a better basketball situation if they have Love, Lebron and Irving.

@DoubleDD What is the purpose of sports teams? To quote the sometimes insightful Herm Edwards "You play to win the game! Hello!

Cleveland has an opportunity over the next handful of years to win a championship. That's what sports franchises should do. They should work to win a title and, when those opportunities present themselves, go for it.

San Antonio has done that better than most. They got Tim Duncan to pair with David Robinson. They won two titles that way. Once Robinson retired, they had Parker and Ginobili waiting in the wings. One of the things that gets downplayed quite a bit is that Duncan, Parker and Ginobili have all kept their salaries down to help keep that team together under the salary cap. That's how the Spurs have been able to be so successful. If they had to pay market value for Duncan and Parker all these years, they probably would not have been able to keep that team together. Once Ginobili retires, they will probably use his salary space to sign Kawhi Leonard to a big deal and let the cycle repeat itself. It's not like the Spurs beat the Heat with also ran type players. Parker is an all star. Duncan is one of the best 10-15 players EVER. Ginobili is a top 75 player in the NBA. Leonard is one of the best 35 players in the league. They beat Miami because they had a lot of great players, too.

So now Cleveland looks around. They know Love is getting traded and most likely, if he gets dealt, he's either coming to Cleveland or he's going to Chicago. If he goes to Chicago, that's probably strengthening your biggest rival. More than anything, Cleveland has to be in on this to be sure that Chicago, a team that has been decent without Derrick Rose, doesn't all of a sudden put some distance between themselves and the rest of the East.

There are only a handful of teams each year with a legitimate shot at a title. Right now those teams are San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, and Chicago. Depending on what happens with the Donald Sterling situation, you may be able to add the Clippers to that list. Beyond that, I can't really point to anybody. But the thing is, if you're on that list, you have to do what you can to finish it off.

That was Miami's mistake last season. They let a valuable guy like Mike Miller go when they were basically right on the brink of a title. They were on the list and took a step back. Remember, the Spurs were one loose ball and a Ray Allen three from beating Miami last year. Miami helped them close the gap and, while they weren't looking, the Spurs zoomed right past. Cleveland saw that. Everybody in the NBA saw it. Lots of NBA people talked all season about how not having Miller would hurt Miami in the playoffs. Cleveland knows what happened. They have a shot at a title - maybe multiple titles. They can either finish it off, or they can be the Buffalo Bills of the early 90's.

I'm high on both Oubre and Alexander, to the point that I feel like right now they will be two of KU's best four players - Oubre second behind Selden, who I am super high on, and Alexander fourth behind a moderately improved Perry Ellis.

However, I think Selden's production can go up 50% this season, which, for a guy that was a decent player, would be a huge jump in productivity. I think Oubre and Alexander will both be double figure scorers with some production in other areas (rebounds and blocks for Alexander, rebounds and threes for Oubre). I think other guys will show improvement. I like Traylor quite a bit, but my gut feeling on him is that he won't get as much PT behind Alexander, Ellis and Mickelson, and the possibility that KU plays small at least sometimes this year, so he may not see his production really rocket up. I'm unsure on Frankamp because the PT forecast is even more cloudy for him. He may play a lot, he may barely play. Tough to call right now.

As for Wiggins-Love-Bull-Cavs-Wolves situation, it's a very tough call. For the Cavs, it's all about maximizing the next 3-4 years (the Lebron window). For Minnesota, it's all about getting the most out of Kevin Love. For the Bulls, it's all about seizing control of the vulnerable Eastern Conference.

I've talked about Cleveland quite a bit, but I think it comes down to whether Wiggins will be a more productive player than Kevin Love in any of the next three seasons. If that answer is no (and it appears that Cleveland believes it is), then I think you have to do the deal. The thing is, saying that 20, 21 and 22 year old Andrew Wiggins won't be as productive as in his prime Kevin Love (probably a top 10 or top 15 player in the NBA for that stretch) isn't really disrespect to Wiggins. It's just that it's unlikely Wiggins is even a top 25 player during the next three seasons. Maybe he pulls a Kawhi Leonard and shows that type of growth, but can you wait until year three of the Lebron window (when James will be going on 32) for him to make that leap? Can you compete for a title in either of the next two years if he gives you Kawhi Leonard type production (again, nothing to sneeze at if he does that)?

For Minnesota, knowing Love isn't re-signing, you have to do a deal now. You can't risk not getting a deal done and then panic trading him in January without getting an impact player back. That is how GM jobs are lost. Minnesota will almost certainly do something, and it's likely that they will do something with a team in the Eastern conference (again, because the East is vulnerable and Kevin Love joining a team in the East makes that team at least a playoff team, maybe even a title contender).

For the Bulls, if they can legitimately show a lineup of Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Love-Noah with Pau Gasol off the bench 25 minutes a night, that's a legit lineup. They can spread the floor, they have different guys that can shoulder the load offensively (especially if Rose returns to 90% of his former self), they can still defend inside with Noah, etc. That's a really good team. With Indiana losing Stephenson, they probably will be even worse offensively than they were last year. Miami has no Lebron. Cleveland is probably a player away unless one of the young guys really progresses. New York is a mess. Jersey is old. Washington is probably a breakout season from someone besides Wall away. Atlanta is never quite good enough. If Chicago does that deal, it's not hard to see how they would be the #1 team in the East.

It's all about competitive windows. Cleveland's window is open for the next 3-5 years depending on Lebron. Minnesota's window will depend on what they can get back for Love. Chicago's window depends on a healthy Derrick Rose, but could easily be the next 3-5 years as well if they land Love. If you have a window you have to take it, because if you miss it, it may just be gone.

For me, a healthy Wayne Selden should be the most improved KU player. Last year he just couldn't play to his full potential for extended periods. I'm hoping that if he's healthy, he shows his true, legitimate NBA 2 guard potential this upcoming season.

If not Selden, possibly Frank Mason. He could be ready to explode if he has learned to control his tempo in the college game.

What is Andrew Wiggins' ceiling? That's really a big part of this question when it comes to trading him.

Some say that he could be like Durant or Lebron or Jordan or Kobe or someone along those lines. I for one just don't see it. He's not that type of offensive force. He has the tools to be a good offensive player, but I don't foresee him ever being a 25 ppg guy. I could be wrong. Of course, there's a lot of disagreement among NBA guys about what his ceiling is.

I look at Andrew Wiggins and I see the potential for a Scottie Pippen type of player - superb defensively, with enough offense to carry a team in short bursts, but not the type of guy that can carry you for months at a time like a Durant, Jordan or Kobe.

For a more contemporary comparison, I actually would look at a player like Indiana's Paul George. Another tremendous defensive player who has some skills offensively as well. Unfortunately, Paul George is also somewhat limited by the fact that his ball handling is not quite elite enough to make him a great driver in the NBA, which means he doesn't get to the FT line much (only about 6 times a game this year, which was a career high). That lack of FTs means he has to make a lot of FGs, and as a non post player, that means a lot of contested jumpers have to fall. His FG % has settled in around 42% the last two years as he's become more of a scorer precisely because some of those jumpers are not going down. I think Wiggins will be similar. When he gets his jumper going, he can go for a ton like he did against West Virginia. On the other hand, he can disappear for long periods if he can't get those good looks because he can't get to the paint at will like Jordan or Kobe or Lebron or Durant.

Not to say that he won't be a good NBA player. I just comp'ed him to one of the 50 best players ever (Pippen) and a two time NBA all star (George). If he lands in that range, he's definitely a success. I'm just not sure you don't trade a guy with that ceiling for an in his prime Kevin Love.

@drgnslayr

I love those types of tools. It shows the level of sophistication that NBA scouting reports go to. As you pointed out with McMorris, teams see that he works the left side, primarily on pick and pop and the extended low post. Doesn't do a lot of work around the high post, which means that he is either always rolling to the baseline (possibly by design) or he is more comfortable attacking the rim than shooting from the high post.

That information is hugely valuable when preparing a report on how to defend a player.

I just don't see much success from KU on the horizon right now.

They don't have top notch speed on either side of the ball, so that pretty much means they can't beat top level teams.

They still lack depth, so any injury could really derail the season.

I'm not very hopeful right now, but would love to be proven wrong.

Let's remember that basketball trades require two to tango.

If you're in the Wolves front office, and you're trading Kevin Love, a proven 20-10 guy who is one of the best 12-15 players in the NBA right now, you had better get back an impact guy or a potential impact guy, or you should start updating your resume because you will not have a job if you trade Kevin Love for 60 cents on the dollar. There's no two ways around it.

So you look at Cleveland's roster - who can they give up? If they deal Irving, they have no PG and they have to go out and find a decent PG. Waiters isn't an impact or potential impact guy. Bennett is coming off one of the worst seasons ever for a #1 pick. That leaves Wiggins. He is literally the only impact guy that Cleveland has that they could potentially move.

If you're Minnesota, you can't do this deal unless Wiggins is included. You can't give up an asset like Love without getting an asset back.

From Cleveland's perspective, you have to figure out how long the Lebron window is. Let's recall that Lebron just watched Dwyane Wade decline from being a top 15 player to a shell of his former self in just two years.

Lebron himself has played exactly 1000 NBA games, including playoffs and has logged 39993 total minutes. As I always say, there is a definite shelf life to a high level career. Michael Jordan played a total of 1251 games in his career and logged 48415 minutes. Kobe Bryant has played 1465 games and logged 54208 minutes. The last time Kobe played a full season he was 32. Jordan's final season saw him play all 82 games, but posted his lowest scoring average of his career (more than 2 points lower than any other season).

Assuming that Lebron (now 29) has four more elite seasons in him (really pushing it), followed by two very good seasons and then three declining seasons, Cleveland's best option is to maximize the next two seasons because this is absolutely their best window with Lebron. If Wiggins isn't likely to be a top 35 player this season or next season, Cleveland's best chance to win a title probably would be with Love because you can't give away two of the remaining elite Lebron seasons. You will never get those seasons back.

Five years from now, Wiggins is likely a better asset than Kevin Love. Heck, three years from now Wiggins could be a better asset than Love. But five years from now, Lebron is 34 and the Lebron championship window is probably closed. Three years from now that window may only be open a sliver. Championship windows are short.

I would hate to lose some of the discussion we have had, but if the only way to improve the site moving forward is to reboot, I'd rather do it now than wait until October or November and have to reboot when the board is busier and the discussions will be more lively.

My other concern is whether some of our longer threads will cause issues if we don't upgrade now. I'm not savvy enough to know the difference, but if that's the case, I think we need to do that now so that we don't run into future problems.

Much more likely that Mykhailiuk plays in the vein of other taller Euro perimeter guys like Nowitzki or perhaps a Euro Kevin Durant, although probably not nearly as prolific.

@jaybate 1.0

You cannot answer the question of who will shoot well from trey without first answering the question of what type of shots will they be taking from trey.

For an explanation, we have to turn to the NBA because the stats are better and much more consistent than college, where the vast level of skill can skew stats in strange ways.

In the NBA 84% of made 3 point attempts are assisted. Corner threes in the NBA are assisted 96% of the time. This means that guys that are shooting a high percentage on threes are most likely the benefactors of either a drive and kick, a pass out of a post double team, or a swing pass after a defense has collapsed. That's what keeps those percentages high - getting an open look with your feet set and the ball coming to you in the shooting pocket.

So the question of whether Oubre, or Svi, or Greene or Frankamp will shoot >40% from three this year really depends on how much attention Alexander, Ellis and Mickelson draw in the post, and how well Graham, Selden and Mason break down the defense off the dribble. If Oubre is taking a lot of pull up 3s off the dribble, his percentage will struggle to creep past 35%. On the other hand, if he's catching the ball in the sweet spot with his defender trying to recover to him, I think he could shoot upwards of 42%. The thing is, he can't do that on his own - that will require good, crisp kickouts on postups or penetration and quick swings when the defense is scrambling. Same goes for the rest of the perimeter group. If the D gets sucked in, the 3 point percentage will sky rocket. If the D stays set, it will plummet.

@Statmachine

Good post. I think there's something there, but I am a bit more tepid in my analysis of Oubre's defense.

7:08 - Mudiay in transition, but all five USA players get back on D. Mudiay probably should have pulled it out since he didn't have numbers, as only two of his teammates ran with him, and neither of his bigs sprinted the floor.

10:54 - Again in transition, this time he correctly pulls it back against the set defense. Oubre does a good job of cutting off the inital drive to reset.

22:35 - A disaster of a press break, as the entire world team deserted Mudiay in the backcourt against a pretty solid trap (Oubre and Stanley Johnson). The world team lacked a second ballhandler and it showed up several times. Oubre does a great job here of not fouling once he has a guy in trouble.

27:50 - Oubre came in help here and deflected the pass. Good play by Oubre off the ball.

52:38 - Had a half step on Oubre, but help was there in the lane (appears to be Cliff Alexander). Oubre did a nice job funneling him to the help here.

I'd say Oubre is a solid defender, but not on the level we saw Wiggins at. I think the criticism of Oubre is that his hips tend to get a little high, which makes him vulnerable to quickness on the perimeter. If he cleans that up, he should be fine. He stayed low on Mudiay and was able to cut him off, but when he gets high, he can be beaten just like any other player. This is something that Self and staff will really have to stay after him on, because in college he will face guys that can exploit that on a regular basis.

Never underestimate the influence that the players' wives have on their decision making.

Savannah James has been making noise about moving back home to Ohio. They have a nice house near Akron where she spends every summer. It seems that she and her family would like to have the grandkids around all year rather than just the summer time.

Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony's wife, Lala, is a New York girl. That was what forced the issue in the first Carmelo deal. She lived in NY and wanted him to go to either the Knicks or Nets. Rumor has it now that she is willing to leave NY, but doesn't want to go to a small town, meaning really only the Knicks, Nets, Clippers, Lakers, Bulls, Rockets and Heat have any sort of shot at signing Carmelo, and since the Knicks, Nets and Lakers are capped out, it would take quite a bit of other dominoes to make that happen.

At this point in their respective careers, Lebron has already made almost $130m from basketball alone. Carmelo has made about $135m. Given the way the salary structure in the NBA works, they are better off taking less money to have a stronger team than to get paid at market value.

My gut tells me Lebron either re-signs in Miami or goes back to Cleveland, while Carmelo either stays in NY or goes to Chicago, with the Clippers as an outside possibility if they can make the salaries work.

So there was no trade of any of the top 5 picks. There was a lot of talk regarding whether Philly would deal the third pick, or Utah would deal the 5 to move up, or even Cleveland dealing the 1. None of it happened, although I thought something was afoot when Cleveland went their entire time to make their pick.

As for the second prediction, I'm looking at 4 guys as potentially the guy to be one of the five best in 5 years - Zach Levine (13), TJ Warren (14), James Young (17) and Gary Harris (19). I'd also keep an eye on Tyler Ennis. It's not that I think any of the guys at the top are bad - I just think there's a good possibility that one of these guys explodes. I have my eye especially on James Young. He's a very good scorer that got overshadowed in college, but could really develop in the NBA. He's with a very good franchise with a good coach, so that should help.

Embiid went 3. I was surprised that Philly pulled the trigger, but I see what they are trying to do with very athletic big guys. It's a risk, but one that could pay off huge when everyone is healthy in a couple of years (knock on wood).

We will know in three years who regrets the Embiid pick. Stay tuned.

Really classy moment from the NBA last night with the league "drafting" Isaiah Austin. A special moment that you could tell meant a lot to him. Wishing him the best moving forward.

New predictions:

Rookie of the Year - Jabari Parker. He will probably lead Milwaukee in scoring at around 20 per. He's also a good enough rebounder that he will contribute there as well. I don't see anyone else being able to put up those kind of numbers. Julius Randle could have a nice year in LA as a rebounder, but I don't think he will be as good a scorer right off the bat, so he won't be able to stay with Parker in the voting.

Biggest Bust Risk (injury division) - Obviously this is Embiid. Until he plays a full season, this is a huge risk.

Biggest Bust Risk (lottery pick) - I don't worry about guys that can't shoot if they can do other things, so Gordon, Payton and guys like that don't worry me so much. That makes Zach Levine the biggest bust risk to me. He's athletic and can play, but isn't terribly consistent, and if he can't play the point, it's hard to find a fit for him.

Biggest Bust Risk (first round) - PJ Hairston. Hanging out with the wrong people is a sure way to derail your career. That's what his undoing was in college, and unless he has corrected that, no amount of skill will keep him in the League.

Late First Round surprise - I have to point to two guys here. Rodney Hood for the Jazz and Shabazz Napier for the Heat. It's clear the Heat are going to move in a different direction at the point. It looks like Chalmers will probably walk and sign elsewhere. Napier has a chance to start for (if Lebron stays) a very good Miami team. Hood is another nice piece for Utah as they try and rebuild.

Best Second Rounders - I really like a bunch of the second round guys to go on to have successful careers. Cleanthony Early should be a good one in NY, particularly if Carmelo leaves (which I think he will). Jarnell Stokes is a perfect fit in Memphis off the bench. Glenn Robinson III is another top notch player that just slipped because of the depth of this draft. Russ Smith is a perfect change of pace scorer off the bench in the NBA. There could be others as teams move guys around once free agency gets going next week.

@brooksmd

As far as medical staffs go, it is generally believed that Phoenix has the best medical staff overall. The only staff that I have seen really get any criticism is Chicago. Everyone else is pretty much the same.

The nice thing is that Philly has enough invested in him at 3 to make sure he gets healthy. They let Nerlens Noel miss the entire season with an ACL, when he probably could have played by February or March.

@JayhawkRock78

Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky) went 1-2 just a couple of years ago. I can't remember any 1-3 combinations off the top of my head. Jay Williams and Mike Dunleavy Jr. (Duke) went 2-3 in 2002.

A check of top 3 draft history has Lew Alcindor and Kansas City legend Lucious Allen (UCLA) going 1-3 in 1969. I don't see anyone else, but I kind of did that in a rush.

A few predictions for the draft.

There will be a trade involving one of the top 5 picks. Most people think there’s no way that could happen in a loaded draft, but this draft is weird. While the draft probably has 20-25 players that will have solid to good pro careers, there isn’t a guaranteed franchise player in this draft. There isn’t a single guy in this draft that automatically changes the fortunes of the franchise that drafts him. But if you get the right guy and put him in the right situation, there are any number of guys in this draft that could help you win a title. Some teams love certain guys, but not others. If the guy they like isn’t there, a team could be willing to move down for the right price.

A guy drafted in the teens will be one of the five best players taken in this draft five years from now. This isn’t much of a prediction, as it happens fairly regularly. The depth of this draft just makes it easier to say that. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if a very good player lasted until the late teens here.

Joel Embiid will be drafted in the top 7. There’s almost no way that Embiid lasts past both the Celtics and Lakers at 6 and 7. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes before then, but one of those teams will take him if he’s still there.

There will be regret surrounding the Embiid selection. It’s unfortunate, but it looks like there is no middle ground for Joel at this point. He’s either going to be the best player in this draft (and probably by a significant distance), or he’s going to be a disappointment because of injury. If healthy, he’s a star. If not, he’s a bust. So either teams will pass on him and regret taking the next great NBA big man or someone will take him and regret that they used a first round pick and couldn’t get 200 quality games out of him.

As big a story as where Embiid will go, the more significant health related shakeup in the draft will be Isaiah Austin. With him not being in the draft at all, the middle part of the first round could get interesting. Austin was pretty high on the boards of a few teams in that range. With him out, that could cause teams to trade down or reach on guys they weren’t as high on. Anything could happen at this point.

One other thing you have to recognize with what the Spurs did is how they have embraced smaller lineups. They played a lot of minutes with only one traditional post player in the game, and even with those lineups, they would position that post player above the foul line offensively. They were effectively playing without a post presence for large stretches of the Finals. And this is even with an all time great like Tim Duncan at his disposal.

Self has been very hesitant to stray from having a traditional two big, three perimeter lineup. Even when he has had limited interior talent, he has been very cautious about going away from a traditional set.

For instance, KU could, I believe play a very effective lineup featuring Ellis as the lone big playing above the FT line, along with Oubre, Selden, and two of the Mason/Frankamp/Graham trio.

He could similarly find minutes for Greene in that same lineup instead of either Oubre or Selden. He could also utilize Mickelson in that lineup in place of Ellis.

It just takes some creativity.

I'm rooting for Embiid. He seems to be a very thoughtful, hard working kind of guy. I wish him the best.

But the Embiid story is also why I advise every athlete that I talk to, regardless of current and future talent level and earning potential, to not play injured - EVER - unless they are being paid.

How many times do you see high school players "gutting it out" on a sprained ankle or a sore knee? Why do coaches ask them to do that. We need this to stop.

Even KU is guilty of this. We learn that Selden played on a bad leg literally for the entire season. That just is careless, in my opinion. What does Wayne Selden gain by potentially injuring himself protecting a nagging injury? How does he help either KU or himself by playing at 80% (if that)?

This whole playing injured thing just really bothers me.

@DoubleDD

I agree about ND being in and making the conference better. I also think Louisville is a must. UVA and Va Tech would probably be a package. I can't see the Big XII agreeing to a merger without an original member like Iowa State included. WVU fits too well with the group in the northeast.

Basically, the concept of ND is sound, but the practicality of it is not. ND would be a tough sell, while everyone else probably would be pretty agreeable. And with that many schools, you don't necessarily need Notre Dame. Further, ND could be the destabilizing force, because they would want to bring in their NBC deal, while this conference would have the ESPN/ABC thing already in place.

@DoubleDD

There are just so many moving parts to making a conference this big. How to handle minor sports, how to handle travel. Those trips to Syracuse and BC in the winter would be brutal. Teams would be spread from Lubbock, Texas to Coral Gables, Florida to Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

You would have to figure out bowl affiliations and TV schedules. The easiest thing to do would be to break the TV schedule into parts, so that each division would show in the viewing area, so the states of Kansas and Oklahoma wouldn't be stuck with a Big Monday game showing UNC and Pitt, but would see KU and Louisville instead. You would have to do two different games each week to give options, but that might create double the money. Same thing in football. You would need to offer ESPN two games so that UT fans wouldn't be stuck watching Florida State and Virginia instead of Texas and UNC.

The trouble with uniting the ACC and Big 12 is that the ideal conference has 16 teams or less. Anything more becomes to difficult to manage. The current conference roster in the Big 12 and ACC is as follows:

Baylor, Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame (except football), Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pitt, Syracuse, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia.

That's 25 schools. The only option is to have a superconference that is really two conferences of 12 divided into six groups of 4, dropping Notre Dame unless they agree to participate in all sports.

The schools group fairly easily by fours:

The West Plains: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Tobacco Road: Duke, UNC, NC State, Wake Forest

Northeast: Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia

Lone Star: Baylor, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech

East Plains: Iowa State, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech

South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

Other than that Eastern Plains division, everything else divides fairly nicely. The West Plains, East Plains and Northeast would be one "conference." The South, Lone Star and Tobacco Road would be the other "conference." Each school would play their division foes each year, plus one school from each of the other 5 divisions, so that every four years you would play everyone in the superconference, and every 8 years would be a home and home in football. The team in each conference with the best record would play in a superconference title game.

For basketball, you would have home and homes against your division (6 games), plus one game against each team in your super conference (8 more games) and one game against two teams in each of the other three divisions (6 games). Yes, that's a 20 game conference schedule, but it breaks out nicely because every two years you would have played everybody, and every four years you would play a home and home.

The divisions would keep things from getting too unwieldy because the superconference tournament would seed based on conference record.

It's probably much too complex to ever happen, but there is at least one way to do it.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-story-of-melo-to-miami/ ↗

That article covers everything in my above post much more eloquently.

@icthawkfan316

The Big3 era has introduced some complex questions. Fans always say that players should be more concerned about winning than money or fame. Each of the Big 3 had to take less than a maximum deal in order to put the team together. Separately, any of them could command a max or near max deal.

Bosh, James and Wade are the 8th, 9th and 10th highest paid players in the league. If they were to try and add Carmelo to the mix, it would require that all four players to take pay cuts. Right now, without doing anything the salaries of the Big 3 (without accounting for a reduction) plus the salaries of Udonis Haslem, Norris Cole and Birdman puts them at the salary cap - the FULL cap. Just to fill out their roster requires them to go close to the luxury tax line, and that assumes that all of the other players are minimum salary guys. Any player with more than 2 years experience costs over $900k per year, and they would need 6 such players. And that's without Carmelo.

The only way to pull it off would be to have each of the Big 4 take a $3-$5m salary cut, putting them all in the $15-$16m range (rather than the $19-$21m range they currently enjoy), and even then, they would be hard pressed to sign any complimentary pieces without further salary reductions from the Big 4. To put it more simply, each of those players would have to consciously give up 20-25% in salary to all play together. Making that decision would show that it was about winning rather than the money, but no one ever thought that the best players would be willing to play for under market value to play together.

Ultimately, there are several teams that can offer Carmelo a max deal, which would be worth about $22m over five years. He can take that or he can take less money and go somewhere that has a stronger team. If Carmelo wants to play for a contender, he will have to take less money to do so, which means winning will trump money (or more money, anyway).

All of this brings up a more interesting topic. Lebron, Carmelo and Bosh have all been friends since they were in high school. They attended several of the elite Shoe Co. (shout out to @Jaybate 1.0) basketball camps together growing up. This is happening more and more, as kids that attend these camps from the time they are in 8th or 9th grade become pretty good friends with guys from around the country and even talk about playing together someday. For some of those guys, it's in college. For others, they hold the cards when it comes to free agency in the NBA.

It's no longer the agents, or even the Shoe Co. or even the teams that hold the cards. Let's say for instance that Durant and Westbrook see what's happening in Miami and get together with Serge Ibaka and decide to talk to Westbrook's old college teammate Kevin Love about joining them in OKC after the 2015 season. After a few years of losing in Minnesota, how long do you think Love would ponder before taking that offer?

@nuleafjhawk

I saw Lester Earl before he hurt his knee. Absolutely the most athletic player KU would have ever had to that point had he stayed healthy. That 97-98 team may have won a title if Earl had been healthy to team with Pierce and LaFrentz. Pre-injury he was just outright scary.

The only guy I can say I was truly disappointed in was CJ Giles. His off the floor actions just cannot be excused. I would also point to JR Giddens, who had some off the floor issues as well.

Note that when I say off the floor issues, I am talking about dangerous and potentially criminal acts, not social media posts. Saying or posting something stupid on social media is a sign of immaturity. Doing something criminal is just being a bad guy. Abusing women or being involved in bar fights is just unacceptable.

There are guys I wish had played better or stayed healthy (Lester Earl, Kenny Gregory, Selby, Henry, Selden, Wiggins, Embiid, etc.) but I can't be disappointed because as far as I can tell, they did everything they could to play well and represent the crimson and blue. Just my take.

@DoubleDD I'm okay with his aggression because I want him attacking the rim rather than just looking to get layups. When he gets into the restricted area, he can get those dunks. My concern on the double teams is when he catches outside the paint, because everyone knows if he gets that deep position how it's going to end...glass flying, Robinzine crying...

Outside the paint he has to be able to see the floor and make the right decisions. That will take some time.

Both Chalmers and Norris Cole have played poorly this series. Miami has figured out over the last few years that in order to be most effective, they need to surround James and Wade with 3 point shooters. A couple years ago, one of those guys was Shane Battier, but as his shooting has fallen off he has fallen out of the rotation more and more. Udonis Haslem can barely get on the floor because he cannot stretch the defense. Because James and Wade can both handle the ball so well, Miami really doesn't have to play a PG, so if Chalmers and Cole continue to shoot poorly, their minutes will continue to dwindle. I have a feeling one of them gets hot at least once this series, though.

The first 18 minutes of that game was some of the prettiest offense you will ever see. Gorgeous cuts, brilliant passing, great communication, exceptional ball movement, everything you would ever want to see on the offensive end from the Spurs. The Heat defense stiffened a bit in the middle of the game, from probably the 4 minute mark in the second quarter until the end of the third quarter, but when the Spurs offense is right, the way they move the ball is so demanding for a defense that you can't keep up.

I'm guessing the Heat will show a new defensive wrinkle in Game 4. It has been shown through this series that they can't keep their ball pressure up for a full game, and when they haven't been able to dial that pressure up to its highest level, the Spurs have been able to find open men for easy shots. I think the Heat may have to be a little more conservative defensively, not looking to trap ball handlers out towards half court because the Spurs have shown they can hit the open man and create those great 4 on 3 opportunities when that rotation is even a quarter step slow.

San Antonio changed the angle on their side pick and roll and that seemed to really throw Miami for a loop, as they couldn't attack that ball handler as well without giving up an easy path to roll to the basket. Miami also needs to find a way to get a bigger guy defending the roll man, because no guard is going to stop Duncan or Diaw when they are rolling to the rim. Unfortunately, the Heat's preferred James-Parker matchup keeps LeBron from taking the roller. The Heat may try Wade on Parker if they can't get Chalmers or Cole going.

@HighEliteMajor

I would put Alexander somewhere between above average and well above average as a defender. Not quite big enough or versatile enough to be elite, but should be a very good defender from day one.

I think he could be a better version of TRob. He is further along as a player than Robinson was when he arrived at KU. I could see Alexander staying two years and being a very good to elite player before he leaves. I don't think you saying he approaches TRob as a rebounder is crazy. I think it's likely. Or maybe I'm crazy.

@ralster

I'm stupid. I forgot that the 2011-2012 season was a lockout season with only 66 regular season games, so my math is wrong anyway.

The game count from 2010-11 until now is as follows

Heat - 103, 89, 105, 105 (so far)
Spurs - 88, 80, 103, 102 (so far)

It reminds me a bit of what the Bad Boy Pistons talk about in their 30 for 30 on the Worldwide Leader. Starting in 1986-87 they played 97, 105, 99, 102 and 97 games. They went to the ECF twice and the Finals three times, winning two titles. But that team aged and was eventually felled by Jordan's Bulls. In year 6 they lost in the first round of the playoffs. The same thing happened to the new bad boys in the 2000s. From 2002-03 until 2007-08 they played 99, 105, 107, 100, 98, and 99 games. The won one title, went to the Finals one other time and lost in the ECF 4 times. At the end of the run, they also lost in the first round of the playoffs.

That's what's coming for the Heat at some point, whether that is this year or next year, or the year after. They have had a strong four year run. Years 5 and 6 are where it gets dicey because unless they can retool through free agency or the draft to get some bench help, they will wear down.

When I try to decide if a guy can translate to the next level I look at several things.

First is body type/ athleticism. If you're an interior player are you tall and strong or just fundamentally sound. This is the difference between a guy like Perry Ellis (exceptional fundamentals) and big Cliff. Cliff is power, explosion, and energy all rolled into one rebound grabbing, rim destroying package that has been slowly chiseled by the harsh Chicago city league. Cliff is big enough and strong enough to compete at the D1 level.

Second thing I look to is skills. In basketball there are five basic skills - shooting, ball handling (dribbling and passing), defense, rebounding and IQ. The things that translate the most quickly are rebounding and ball handling, because the value of a good rebounder or ball handler is roughly the same across all levels. It may be harder to get your shot off as you move up through levels, it may be harder to guard more seasoned players, and your understanding of the game won't save you if your skills are woefully overmatched, but if you can handle the ball or rebound, it translates.

Cliff Alexander is a rebounding monster. I think the Thomas Robinson comp is appropriate. I remember reading once that TRob got 17 rebounds in a high school game with a broken hand. That was all I needed to know to know that Robinson would be an effective collegiate player. Rebounding always has value. Even if Alexander's post moves don't translate as well, making him a lesser scorer, he will still get on the floor because he is a great rebounder. Cliff Alexander can find 8 points a night just by getting on the glass. Would I be satisfied if Alexander comes in and averages 8 points and 9 boards? No, because I think he's better than that. But here's the thing - I think he's almost a lock to be at least somewhere close to that.

Cliff is also a very good shot blocker. When you look at shot blockers, you want to see where they block the shots. Are they a weakside only shot blocker, where they come in from out of nowhere to block a shot, or can they body up and block a shot? Can they go high and block a shot, or do they have to take it out of the hand? Can they block it with control, keeping it in bounds, or do they always toss it into the seats? Can they block shots with either hand?

Look at the highlight that @DoubleDD posted. At the 0:49 mark, Cliff gets a chase down block with his right hand in transition. That block probably ended up out of bounds. At the 1:03 mark he blocks a shot in the post with the right hand. It looks like the victim may have been Myles Turner. He kept that one in bounds. At 1:08 he comes from the lane and blocks a runner with the right hand, keeping it in bounds. At 1:20 he destroys a layup attempt with his right hand, sending that one out of bounds. At 1:25 he gets another righty block and sparks a potential fast break off a floater. But my favorite (and most important) block is the one at 1:48. He comes across the lane and gets a lefty block on what looks to be a jump hook. Probably put it out of bounds, but he got the lefty block on the move. At 2:10 he gets another righty block that he keeps in bounds and sparks a break that ends with him getting an alley-oop dunk. He gets a lefty block at 2:17 followed by a righty block at 2:19. Both of those blocks are in the paint.

This highlight video shows basically every type of block you need to see - in transition, across the lane, man to man, weakside, either hand, etc. He blocks big guys, small guys, on the move, in the set defense, in help, etc.

I can't imagine that Cliff will be anything less than an average defender, with the potential to be above average and possibly even well above average because of his strength and timing. He's not an out of control swinger. He can direct a block when he wants to and understands that doing so can get his team out in transition. That should all translate, particularly because he wasn't just swatting the shots of 5-10 guards.

So really, the questions surround how good he can be offensively as a scorer and whether he can handle the ball well enough when he gets double teamed. His footwork is adequate, but not great. Since he's not a 6-11, 7-0 guy, his footwork will have to improve on the offensive end to get him the same results that he saw in high school. I'm not sure what type of passer he is, but my guess is he's going to be below average (maybe even well below average) because most high school bigs don't see strong double teams like they will see in college. This is because most high school teams can't send a second guy (don't even have a second guy) strong enough to actually confront a guy as big and strong and tough as Cliff. Colleges will be able to. That will be a challenge for him, as it is for most high school bigs moving to college.

His hoops IQ actually looks to be solid. I need to be able to watch him play more so I can see him off the ball, but he seemed to be engaged enough to block shots on rotation and run the floor well. He has been hyped as a guy that can rebound out of area, which means he either has excellent anticipation or pursuit skills.

I'm not worried about his ability to move to college.

This has been a great series to watch so far as a basketball fan. Watching how the Spurs move the ball is just incredible. Watching how the Heat defend that ball movement is also pretty incredible. The Spurs move the ball faster than any team I've seen, but the Heat are pretty consistent with being able to close out on them.

My curiosity is whether or not the Heat can keep up that defensive intensity for the rest of the series. It was pretty clear that the entire Heat team (not just LeBron) was sapped by the heat in Game 1. Since they aren't very deep and their key guys (James, Wade, Bosh) have to play 35+ minutes in a very demanding defensive system, it will be interesting to see how they handle that now that they have crossed the 100 game mark for the season (last night was game 101) for the fourth consecutive year. By my count they went 103 games in 2011, 105 in 2012 and 105 again last year. That's a lot of mileage on a team that isn't really all that young any more.

The fun part of this series is seeing two very talented, well coached teams go back and forth. I think the series is a toss up, but it very well may have turned on the Spurs coming up empty on the flagrant foul play, squandering an opportunity to get a 5 or 6 point swing in a very close game.

@wissoxfan83

KU has been extremely power forward heavy through the years. Just in the last 30 years there has been (of guys that went on to have NBA careers) Manning, LaFrentz, Collison, Gooden, Simien, Marcus Morris, and Robinson. That doesn't include guys like Richard Scott, Alonzo Jamison, Perry Ellis, etc. You would be hard pressed to put any of those guys over Manning, but like I said, that's a pretty stacked list.

Same thing at the PG position. You got JoJo White, Jacque Vaughn and Sherron, but skipped both Adonis Jordan and Aaron Miles, who both led KU to a pair of Final Fours. And then there's the question of Tyshawn Taylor. Again, that isn't your fault - there's just a lot of guys that you could point to as being deserving.

At SG you didn't name Rex Walters, even though he probably had one of the best individual seasons ever by a KU player in 1992, with a ridiculously efficient scoring season (averaged 16 ppg on less than 10 shots a game), shooting 52% from the field, 40% from 3 and 82% from the line.

I also have to throw a couple of players out there that often get overlooked in KU lore - Steve Woodberry, who could play every position on the perimeter, and Darrin Hancock, who was probably the most athletic player at KU under Roy Williams (edging out Lester Earl, who was never healthy at KU, and Kenny Gregory).

@icthawkfan316

I think market size is overblown. The Thunder have a very smart front office, but they misread the effect of the new CBA when they made the Harden trade. They thought the luxury tax (which is more important than the salary cap) would be lower than it has turned out to be. Since they felt that they had a strong perimeter with Westbrook and Durant, they wanted to keep Ibaka over Harden to have the defense and inside presence. Had they realized that the luxury tax would continue to rise the way it has, I think they would have handled the Harden situation differently.

A smart front office matters more in the NBA than anywhere else. Look at the Knicks or the current Lakers. Both are iconic franchises in major markets. Both are also terrible. The Knicks have a salary cap disaster. On top of that, they don't own either of their draft picks this season, they don't have next year's second rounder or either 2016 pick (unless their second round pick falls in the top 7 of the second round). That's years of poor management all coming to fruition and no amount of money can get them out of it until at least 2017 when they own their first rounder and most of the bad money on their cap sheet will be gone.

The Lakers are similarly sunk. They have Kobe tying up nearly $25m in cap space each of the next two years. They don't have a first rounder in 2015 or 2017 unless it falls in the top 5. They may not have any picks in 2015 at all, depending on where their draft position is, as their 2nd rounder is traded, but top 40 protected. There is a very good chance that after the 2016 season the Lakers will have no Kobe, a late lottery pick and no first rounder the following season. There's not much of a foundation there to build on if that's the case.

Now look at a team like Portland or Denver. Portland doesn't have any picks this year, but they have a solid team with a lot of young players. On top of that, they own their first rounder every year going forward and they may get an extra 2nd rounder from the Knicks down the road. They already have Aldridge signed and will likely do the same with Lillard. They have a good foundation, cap space and picks for the next several years.

The Nuggets are in even better shape. Two first rounders this year. Two second rounders this year. Their own first rounder in 2015. The higher of the two picks between theirs and the Knicks in 2016. That's potentially three lottery picks over the next three seasons, plus an extra first rounder on top of that. They don't have tons of talent on the roster right now, but they have a way to get some help very quickly.

On the other hand look at what Cleveland has done. They have had three number one picks in four years counting this year. If they don't land one of the best three players in this draft this season, they will have blown back to back #1 picks. For all of their high picks, they haven't gotten any better in the last four years. And this is the same team that never could build a solid cast around Lebron James. It's not a lack of resources. It's a lack of competency.

The challenge that KU faces is that their best players are almost all wing players. Looking back at the Mizzou example that @HighEliteMajor provided, that group featured Marcus Denmon (PG), Phil Pressey (PG) and Michael Dixon (PG). Having three of your best players all able to act as primary ball handlers is great because you can always play multiple ball handlers together.

With wing players, that's not the case. A ball handler can move off the ball and play on the wing, but someone always has to act as the primary ball handler. Against smaller teams, KU could play a 4 out look and have Selden, Oubre and Greene all on the floor together, somewhat similar to what Iowa State has done in recent years, but I don't think they can use that as their primary look because they need ball handlers.

You also have to consider the possibility that three of their best six players could be Alexander, Ellis and Mickelson. There's also the distinct possibility that six of the best seven players will be Alexander, Ellis, Oubre, Selden, Greene and Mickelson. If that's the case we could end up in a situation where we are desperate for ball handling in all of our potential lineups.

I think Mario should stay because he's not an all star caliber guard, so the market for him isn't going to be mind blowing. The Heat will probably give him a modest raise (especially since it's likely that guys like Haslem, Allen and Battier are at the end of their careers and may free up money in the next year or two). But Mario has an almost perfect pro situation - he's in a great destination, plays on a great team, isn't asked to do anything out of his comfort zone and makes a solid amount.

Say he were to take the money and go to a new team. He would either have to go to a good team as a backup (somewhere like Memphis, San Antonio, Golden State, Clippers, etc) or move to a weaker team to start (Philadelphia, New Orleans, New York, etc.). I don't think the teams in the middle could give him significantly more money than the Heat would, especially considering Mario isn't the type of player that could lead you to a championship. He's a piece of a championship roster, but he's not one of the building blocks. He's a guy that needs to be no better than your fourth or fifth best player if you have designs on winning a title. If he's your third best guy, you're probably in some trouble.

Pearl may not have been a national champion, but he did lead Tennessee to their only #1 ranking in school history. He also took them to their first elite eight and took them to five straight NCAA tournaments, something that had not been done previously at UT.

Likewise, Sampson's record at OU is pretty solid. He has the highest winning percentage in school history. He has a Final Four under his belt. He took Washington State to their first NCAA tournament in over a decade.

They're both good coaches with some baggage. Auburn and Houston are both struggling programs looking to make some noise. The only way to do that is to either bet on an up and coming coach or roll the dice with someone with a shaky background. How else would Auburn or Houston attract a coach of that caliber?

Let's look at the last four KU coaches (including Bill Self)

Ted Owens coached at a junior college before joining Dick Harp's staff. He was on the staff for three years before taking over when Harp left after 1964. He had no D1 experience. He's the only coach among the four to ever have any seasons with a losing record (he had 4 such seasons, plus another season at .500).

Larry Brown took over KU in 1983, moving from the New Jersey Nets job. He had previously coached D1 at UCLA for 2 years, where he had a Final Four vacated. He's coached 10 different pro teams and 3 different colleges.

Roy Williams took over in 1988-89. He had no head coaching experience other than 5 years as a high school coach. He had been an assistant under Dean Smith for 10 years when he took the KU job. Recruited some guy named Jordan to both North Carolina and KU. The Carolina Jordan was better.

Bill Self took over in 2003-04. Before that he had coached for 10 years, 4 at Oral Roberts, 3 at Tulsa, 3 at Illinois. Bill Self has never finished worse than 3rd in his conference. Probably the best regular season coach in college basketball today.

If I had to guess as to who KU's next coach would be, I would guess that it would be a coach with a very limited track record at the D1 level. It's just tough to lure someone away from one of those other upper echelon schools, so its more likely that they will have to grab someone from either a mid major or from an assistant position at a top school. They will likely be in their late 30's or early 40's (because KU wants them to keep the job 15+ years).

I think that eliminates guys like Haase, Vaughn and Walters because they will probably be a little older than KU would like when the position opens up somewhere down the line. Jeff Boschee is an interesting case because he's still pretty young, but he has only coached D2 so far, and only as an assistant.

The guy I would keep an eye on is Michael Lee (currently an assistant at Oregon). He seems like he could be a possibility if he gets a shot with his own program for a few years.

@DoubleDD

I never said that college was a bad thing. My argument is that college doesn't mean that you are somehow shielded from financial troubles. In the very article you linked to it points out that 44% of recent college grads are underemployed. For them, having the degree was a huge investment that is currently not paying off the way it should. I've talked to a lot of these people and they are in trouble financially almost exclusively because their student loan debt is crushing them.

Again, I am not saying college is bad. I'm a college graduate myself. But had someone offered me a job making $100,000 per year (more than I make now) when I was a sophomore in college, I would have taken that job, even if I knew that in three years I would lose that job because I would have made enough money to pay for graduate school outright (meaning no student debt now) and still had enough money to live very comfortably during that time. And with the NBA, we aren't talking $100,000. We're talking 8-35 times that amount per year. There's just no comparison.

The thing you have to remember about college coaches jumping to the NBA is that they often are taking over very bad teams.

In 1999-2000 the Atlanta Hawks were 28-54 before hiring Lon Kruger. He won 25 and 33 before being fired 27 games into his third season.

In 1996-1997 the Celtics were 15-67 before hiring Rick Pitino. He won 36 games the next season before winning 19 games in the strike shortened season, then 35 the next year. He was replaced after 34 games the following year.

Tim Floyd took over the post Jordan Bulls. You can imagine how that went.

Running down the list, every single one of those guys took over a very bad team and left them as a slightly less bad team.

The other tough thing about coaching in the NBA as opposed to college is that you can't recruit your way out of a bad situation. Unless you land a great player in the draft, or already have some internal talent, you're probably going to have to endure at least 2-3 years of bad teams to get things turned around because of contracts and roster restrictions. In college, you can turn a team around overnight by landing a couple of top 20 recruits. In the pros, even if you land the best player in the draft, you're still probably just barely a playoff team, if that.

Then you have to consider that in college, if you're a top coach it's likely that you have the far superior team about half the time, meaning you prep for a comparable team about half the time. You can look at KU's schedule for next year right now and find 15 wins even if the entire coaching staff flew to Aruba and didn't come back until February. In the NBA you don't get nights off. If you're playing Orlando tonight, but your focus is on Miami tomorrow, Orlando can beat you, and beat you soundly.

You have to bring it every night (literally every night) from November to April in the NBA. In college, you bring it twice, maybe three times a week.

@DoubleDD

How many retirees are just barely getting by? 50%? 60%? 70%?

The truth is, most people are not set up to really truly enjoy retirement. How many people do you know that retired and then went back to work not because they wanted something to do, but because they needed the income? I know quite a few.

When pro athletes retire, they retire fairly early in life, so we are very aware when, five years later at the age of 38 (or 45 or whatever) they are close to financial ruin. But what about the people that work all their life and in the end have just barely enough money to cover their funeral bills? I've seen that happen more often than I'd like to admit. It's a sad truth.

@jaybate 1.0 said it well on the other thread about deregulating D1. We are at a point where the haves and have nots gap has widened to a frightening extent, and the truth is that most people just do not earn enough to truly save for retirement regardless of education level.

If you look back at the number of bad investments made by athletes (and the failed businesses those represent) then you have to remember one thing - those aren't just athletes that are losing jobs and income. And I bet some of those people are pushed to the brink financially when that happens as well.

Just look around at what happened when the recession hit. How many people had cars repossessed? Homes? Defaulted on credit cards? Filed for bankruptcy? The argument that this is something that only happens to athletes because they aren't educated is fraught with error. There were plenty of educated people that lost it all when they suddenly were not working any more.

There are a lot of things that are in play here.

Value of a dollar

First, we have to think about the value of a dollar. For someone that is struggling - really struggling, not just living paycheck to paycheck, but in actual poverty - the value of that first contract is worth much more now than the potential for a bigger contract later. If you are in poverty, waiting a year to cash in on your talent is just unimaginable. If you live a semi-comfortable life, as I assume many of us on this board do, we can take that delayed gratification. However, the delay for someone in legitimate poverty means another year of their family not having enough to eat, being cold all winter, not having adequate transportation, etc.

Look at it a different way. Let's say I announced that the first person to meet me at my office tomorrow morning would get $100. If you already have a job, that $100 offer is weighed against how convenient it is (or isn't) for you to meet me, whether it is worth it to camp outside my office to be first in line, etc. But if you don't have any food to eat, none of that would matter. You would be at my office in 10 minutes to spend the rest of the day and night so that you could get that $100 tomorrow morning. Nobody that is already in an okay position would change anything about their life to get that $100. But if you are already in a tough position, you would do whatever you could to get that money.

Earnings over time

I've covered this at length before. There is a very finite length to any athletic career. Few players will play past the age of 35. Almost all will be done by 38. Maybe a couple can hang on until 40. That means that an extra year in college at 22 could mean a year less at the end of your career. Given that every sports league has a salary scale for rookies, this means that you are subtracting from your larger earning years. I posted before that Kevin Garnett (May 19, 1976) made almost 2x the money that Rasheed Wallace (September 17, 1974) made in his career. The difference is so great because Garnett's last contract paid him about $11m per year, while Wallace's paid him about $1.5. The difference between being 36 (Garnett's age when he started his current contract) and 38 (Wallace's age when he started his final contract) is huge.

Losing the Money

What is the one thing that most athletes are told? To invest their money. Do you know how many athletes end up losing their fortunes? Those investments go bad.

Most of Bernie Madoff's victims were either athletes or celebrities.

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Simply put, the money that athletes make actually makes them a target for riskier investments that they probably would steer clear of if they didn't have millions of dollars. And there's no guarantee that spending more time in college would protect them from that. Investments fail every day. Smart people lose money on investments every day. How many times has Donald Trump filed for bankruptcy with one of his companies? How often have other companies liquidated their assets? It happens. Every failed restaurant, bar, nightclub, music label, vacation destination, time share, stock tip and other investment that athletes have used could just as easily catch a regular citizen, college or no.

Education guarantees success
There is just nothing to support this idea. I know some people I went to college with that graduated that are absolutely struggling right now financially. They have a degree, but they also have mountains of debt from a credit card, or school loans, or a house, or a car, or whatever and that mountain is slowly crushing them financially. And these are only the ones that I know for a fact are struggling because I know their situation personally. From the outside, their life looks solid - nice house, nice car, solid job, etc. - but from the inside they are barely making it because they still owe money on some credit card bills from college, or a car loan they let go bad, or whatever it may be. Their college education has not gotten them out of financial trouble. They are literally one week of missed work away from financial disaster.

One ___ Away from losing it all
Honestly, we are all one incident from losing it all. How many times have you heard about someone having a family illness, or a car accident, or something else happen, and lose it all? It happens. For most people, if they lost their job tomorrow, they would have only a few weeks to find a new job before they face significant financial ruin. An education can't protect you from that.

I like your ideas, @jaybate 1.0

Just a couple of tweaks.

First, transfers would be allowed only during two periods of the year - at the end of each semester. That way players could move if there were issues during the fall in basketball, or at the end of each spring. Similarly, in football, you could transfer at the end of spring football, or at the end of the fall season. You could not transfer and be eligible for bowl participation in the same season (to prevent seniors from leaving a non-bowl eligible team at the end of the season and playing in a bowl for a different team). Same with baseball, softball, etc.

I absolutely agree with not forcing players to sit out. It's unfair, particularly when coaches can jump from school to school but players can't.

@wissoxfan83 I understand your concern, but there are already haves and have nots. You think the guys on KU's team this year weren't aware that there was a significant difference between a guy like Andrew White and Andrew Wiggins? There are already haves and have nots based on talent. There are some guys that know they will be playing pro and others that know they will be working as accountants. That won't change, regardless. The more likely scenario if players return to college is that they didn't make it as a pro after a year or two, meaning they didn't hit it big and would likely be returning to play and pursue a degree, making them more likely to be focused as a student.

@JayHawkFanToo

I like #7 as well. I know this is a college board, but I think that one pretty well sums up the difference between the NBA and college.

@741hawk

I didn't see the lottery occur, but if you ascribe to conspiracy theories for anything that you did not (or cannot) view live then the world is just one huge spinning conspiracy.

My hesitation with saying Frankamp is the guy is that I don't know how he will play if he has to log more minutes. This year, teams had limited prep time against Frankamp because he didn't play much early in the season.

One of the things that lots of freshmen run into is that, as the season progresses, people start gameplanning against them and their specific skills. That's what made Frank much less effective as the season went on, because he did not adjust to what teams were doing against him. Conner didn't have to do that because most teams didn't get to see him enough early on to really gameplan against him late in the year. But now they have some game film that they can work from, so it's going to be up to Conner to adjust to that. Frank will also have to adjust, because he wasn't effective down the stretch.

The problem for Conner is that he hasn't seen what the adjustments to him will be yet. He probably won't see those until conference play starts since most non-con games only focus on the starters. If Conner is starting, that adjustment period could come up very quickly.

This is the same problem players face when they go from college to pro. Adjusting to how people take away your strengths is something that is difficult to do. Whichever player (between Conner and Frank) that does that will see the majority of the minutes this season.

@HighEliteMajor

I realize that. I think as a defensive coach Self would benefit from having a shorter shot clock. I think it would also force him to bring in (or utilize) an offensive coach to help get some more creative action besides the high-low and weave that he typically runs. Someone on that staff created "Chop", so there is a good offensive mind there somewhere. They just need to utilize it to be more creative rather than getting into the same basic set every trip.

@ParisHawk

Not much pressing in the NBA for a couple of major reasons. First, each team has at least one reliable ball handler on the court at all times. You really can't press most NBA PGs because they handle the ball too well and would turn a trap into a 4 on 3 situation. Look at the teams in the conference finals right now - Miami can have Chalmers, Cole, Wade or James handle the ball. Even Ray Allen can bring it up on occasion, so they have at least five guys that can handle in their 9 man rotation. Indiana has Hill, Stephenson, George and Watson. San Antonio has Parker, Green, Leonard, Ginobili, Mills and Bellinelli. OKC has Westbrook, Jackson, Durant, and Fisher. That's at least four legitimate ball handlers for each team.

Second, with the longer game most teams don't want to wear down their starters by pressing. Some teams press with their second unit for a change of pace, but it's more valuable to have your starters able to play 35+ minutes than to maybe gain a couple extra possessions with a press.