🏀 KuBuckets Archive

@drgnslayr I enjoyed the Creighton win, both because it was Villanova, and also because I have several friends that are Creighton alums. But you can't beat a team that shoots 21-35 from three. 60% on 30+ threes is an absolute death sentence. I was absolutely amazed at that display.

@jaybate 1.0 Every team is vulnerable to hot three point shooting. Look what Creighton did to Villanova on Saturday. There's a certain threshold where, if a team hits that number of threes, you probably can't beat them, no matter how well you play in other aspects of the game. I haven't nailed it down specifically, but I think the number is between 15 and 17 for a regulation game. Simply put, 45 points on just 15 possessions in a college game is too many to give up and still have a strong likelihood of winning.

I've seen lots of teams hit 10-12 threes in a game and still get beaten. Once you pass the 15 mark, it's really tough because most games don't have enough possessions to make up that deficit. Look at this game in particular. Baylor was outscored at the FT line by 17. Rebounds were almost even (Baylor +2). Turnovers were even. KU shot 57% to Baylor's 39%. Those numbers would seem to indicate that KU won this game by at least 15 points, probably 20+. Except Baylor hit 13 threes. Not enough to win, but enough to make what should have been a blowout a pretty decent game.

KU probably was a little lucky that Austin (71% FT shooter on the year) went 0-3 and Chery and Heslip (86% and 72%) went a combined 2-4. The strategy of fouling Jefferson and Gathers was definitely smart, as those two are roughly a 60% FT shooter.

Last night's game was an interesting one. Good game overall, and I was pleased that I can actually say KU played hard last night.

I've always wondered why a guy as big as Isaiah Austin wasn't much of a banger, but after hearing his story during ESPN College Gameday on Saturday, I understand his approach much better and can respect why he plays the game the way he does. I think this hurts Baylor to a large degree because Austin could be one of the 3 or 4 most dominant players in the country if he went inside and banged, but with only one good eye, I can understand hanging out on the perimeter. That said, being that good a shooter with only one eye is an impressive feat.

But enough of Baylor, that was a great win from KU. Survived the early shooting barrage and held them off. It's a shame that Selden's great hustle play really should have been an out of bounds call, but that just shows the rewards you get by playing all out. Had he pursued that ball half heartedly, it probably gets called out of bounds because the official has more time to see the play. With him going all out and just launching himself into the stands, there was really no time to even realize what was happening because the ball was heading out of bounds, then Selden was in the seats and the ball was in Embiid's hands. Just an incredible effort play.

The uptick in effort has really shown on the defensive end the last few games.

Last night's game reminded me in some ways of an NBA game in terms of the amount of athleticism and length on the floor at times. There just wasn't a lot of space to operate with Embiid, Selden, Wiggins, Austin, Jefferson, etc. all on the floor at the same time.

Finally, I thought the world was going to end with the collapse of the space time continuum when Tarik Black and Rico Gathers were involved in a tie up that resulted in a jump ball. That's two enormously strong guys battling.

Everyting negative - pressure, challenges - is all an opportunity for me to rise.
Kobe Bryant

My parents are my backbone. Still are. They're the only group that will support you if you score zero or you score 40.
Kobe Bryant

Commitment is a big part of what I am and what I believe. How committed are you to winning? How committed are you to being a good friend? To being trustworthy? To being successful? How committed are you to being a good father, a good teammate, a good role model? There's that moment every morning when you look in the mirror: Are you committed, or are you not?
LeBron James

You have to be able to accept failure to get better
LeBron James

And a couple of very telling quotes from LeBron:

The first time I stepped on an NBA court, I became a businessman.
LeBron James

My game is really played above time. I don't say that like I'm saying I'm ahead of my time. I'm saying, like, if I'm on the court and I throw a pass, the ball that I've thrown will lead my teammate right where he needs to go, before he even knows that that's the right place to go to.
LeBron James

@truehawk93 What do you do with Roy Williams, then? Good coach? He's got two national titles. Bad coach? At Carolina he has lost in the Round of 32 three times and gone to the NIT once. He's had three years with double digit losses at UNC.

I don't even know what to think of this year's UNC team. Currently winless and dead last in the ACC. Wins over Louisville, UK and Michigan State. They also have three home losses (Belmont, Miami and Texas). If they rack up double digit losses again this season, that will be four times in 11 years. If that happens, is Roy Williams a bad coach?

Personally, I don't think so, but if you judge only the resume, forgetting whether you like the personality or not, it's tough to say Roy Williams is clearly a better coach than Calipari. UK seems to be improving. Carolina looks to be imploding. Lots of season left, but its a fair question I think.

How about Billy Donovan? Two national titles. Followed up with three straight years of double digit losses (two NIT appearances in that time). Five double digit loss seasons in the last 11 years. Also has been to the last three Elite Eights. Is he a good coach? A bad one? Unknown?

How about current defending national champ Rick Pitino. In the last 11 years he has logged SIX double digit loss seasons. He only has 3 conference titles in that time (in the meat grinder of the Big East, but still). Good coach? Bad coach?

I think all of the guys I just listed are good or very good coaches. But every single one of them has had more bad seasons than Calipari over the last 11 seasons.

Calipari has 2 seasons with double digit losses. Advanced to AT LEAST the Sweet 16 in SEVEN CONSECUTIVE SEASONS. Missed the tournament twice (his double digit loss seasons). He's had one down year at UK (last season) and one down year at Memphis (2004-05, before the seven consecutive Sweet 16s). Other than that he has been winning, and winning a lot.

Bill Self may be the only coach in the country that has NOT had a double digit loss season in the last 11 years, or missed the tournament. Even Coach K lost 11 games in 2006-07. So yes, Self is elite, but if you consider Donovan, Pitino and Williams top notch, Calipari has to be considered on that level, too.

Here's a coaching resume for you:

The last 8 seasons, overall record of 260-40 (.866). 3 Elite Eights, 3 Final Fours, 1 Sweet 16. 1 National title. That's a heck of a run. That's Calipari. And let's not get into the whole, but one of those Final Four's was vacated - I judge based solely on what happens on the court and that team won a bunch of games between the lines.

Last year was the first time since 2005 that the Sweet Sixteen was played without Calipari's team, and only the second time the Elite Eight didn't feature Calipari's team. That's amazing, and makes it hard for me to say he can't coach/ develop players. You can't sustain the kind of success he has had if you just roll the balls out and hope for the best. Last year's UK team is the outlier, due to injury.

If Ben McLemore had gotten hurt with 8 games left in the regular season last year, as Nerlens Noel did, KU would have been in trouble. That would have been the K-State game (a game in which BMac went for 30, oddly enough), coming off the 3 game losing streak. If McLemore goes down and is lost for the rest of the season, I hate to think what would have happened to KU's season. UK sputtered to a 4-4 finish, then lost the opening game of the SEC tournament, and the first round NIT game.

If KU goes 4-4 down the stretch rather than 7-1 with losses to Iowa State, Oklahoma State and K-State plus the Baylor game they lost anyway, they finish the year 23-8 (11-7 in conference). 11-7 makes them 4th in conference and pits them against Oklahoma in the Big 12 tourney. Lose that game and suddenly KU is 23-9 and probably looking at a 6 or 7 seed without McLemore. For reference, OU was a 10 seed in last year's tournament, albeit with a weaker non-con. Does KU survive the first round as a 6 or 7 without McLemore? Does KU get knocked down even more (8, 9 or 10) considering their resume without BMac (wins over Texas, WVU, Texas Tech and TCU - the worst 4 teams in the Big 12, losses to Baylor, ISU, OSU, KSU and OU - the five best non KU teams in the Big 12).

As I said yesterday, luck is a huge part of things. If KU had gotten really bad injury luck like losing their best player, I'm guessing anything beyond the round of 64 would have been unlikely for last year's squad.

I would take Embiid every single time, without hesitation.

The hope is to have the best possible shot at a national title every single year. That requires a lot of things - cohesiveness, toughness, luck - but it also requires talent, and lots of it. Without Embiid, KU would have been very talented, but Embiid could push them over the top this year. Shepherd likely would not be able to do that.

The second reason I would take Embiid over a guy like Shepherd is that there is no guarantee that, over his 4 year career, he has one year where he has an opportunity to impact KU the way that Embiid likely will in his one season. For some context, let's look at Mitch McGary. He was the #27 recruit coming out of high school according to ESPN in 2012 (26 for Scout, 30 for Rivals). Like Shepherd, his stock fell prior to his signing. Obviously, he was ranked higher to start with, as he ranked as high as #2 at one point. Then, of course, the bottom dropped out and he ended up in the low 20's. However, he rediscovered that production level last year and could have been a lottery pick. He returned to school and got hurt, because injuries happen. Everybody in the maize and blue celebrated when McGary came back to school. Dreams of Big 10 titles and national title runs were dancing through their heads. And now he's hurt, done for the year and probably going pro this summer. What did Michigan gain by him staying?

There's no guarantee that if we had gotten Shepherd that he would have 1) stayed all four years, 2) improved all four years, 3) remained healthy all four years, 4) played at a high enough level to push us into the national title discussion in any one year.

Even if this is Embiid's only year, he has played well enough to put us in the title discussion. Granted, there's no guarantee we win that title, but if you trade Embiid for Shepherd, I doubt Shepherd is playing at this level, which makes us worse overall.

The other thing to ponder is that Embiid would have gone somewhere. His finalists were Kansas, Texas and Florida. Can you imagine him on that Florida team? They are already very, very good. Add Embiid to that mix and they are probably on the short list for the title. Rick Barnes isn't exactly a coaching guru, but Embiid makes Texas a much better team than they are right now, probably good enough to push for 3rd or 4th in the Big 12 instead of 6th.

Taking Shepherd over Embiid doesn't make Embiid magically vanish. He's playing somewhere, and probably playing very well because he's just that talented. In Embiid's case, that means playing somewhere that we would have most assuredly had to face him this year (maybe twice!) and potentially strengthening another national title contender.

Shepherd over Embiid basically could mean we aren't quite elite this year, or next year, or the year after that. I would rather have the chance to be elite than be just a little bit short.

@KirkIsMyHinrich The biggest reason we dominated the glass was because of Wiggins 19 rebounds. Embiid had a good rebounding night with 9. Ellis had six, but so did Tharpe.

I think had we played one big surrounded by four perimeter guys, we still dominate the glass, we may have fewer turnovers and we may foul less.

ISU had 22 points from the line and 27 points off turnovers. That's 49 of their 70 points. Let's say we cut turnovers from an absurd 24 to a more manageable 17. Let's say we cut our 26 fouls down to a more reasonable 21. That's going to take away probably 5 made FT (7 total attempts) and probably 9 points off turnovers (7 possessions, not all of which will convert into baskets). That's 14 points ISU loses, plus we probably gain 4-6 points by getting shots on those possessions. We could have blown Iowa State out last night by 25-30 with the way they shot. We kept them in it by fouling and turning the ball over. Going small probably helps in both of those areas.

This OSU matchup is going to be interesting.

I think this is another good matchup for Frankamp, especially when either Forte or Stevie Clark is on the floor. Clearly don't want Conner matched up against Smart, Nash or Brown for any length of time, but against their smaller guards, I think the match up works and could give Conner a chance to really shine.

I would toy around with giving Mason a chance to guard Smart when he's in the game. He seems like the type of player that could really agitate Smart.

Without Cobbins, OSU can't match up with KU on the interior, so they may do much like ISU did and try to spread the floor with shooters and slashers. Because Nash, Smart and Brown are all good rebounders on the perimeter (all averaging over 5 boards a game), they are much better equipped to play small and not get mauled on the boards like ISU did. If OSU goes small, either Frankamp or one of the color guard (White, Greene) needs to be ready to come in play well off the bench.

This will be a real test for Andrew Wiggins. He will spend a lot of time matched up with a decent pro prospect in Le'Bryan Nash. Nash knows that this will be a true showcase game for him and, when properly motivated, Nash is one of the 15-20 best players in the country. Wiggins needs to make sure he's ready to play a complete game because my gut tells me Nash will be ready to show his best game.

Wayne Selden also needs to be ready. He may have to play 35+ minutes, as he will need to guard either Smart or Brown for most of the day. He doesn't need to have a big game, but he does need to make his man become a volume scorer rather than an efficient one.

Joel Embiid needs to control his emotions (and elbows). He absolutely CANNOT get kicked out of this game, or even get hit with a silly flagrant or technical. He's too valuable here.

Perry Ellis is the X factor. OSU really doesn't have anybody they can match up with him, so he should have a big day. Perry really needs to have a strong game inside. If he does, he can force OSU to go to some of their size, which will take out one of their better players. Perry needs to dominate his matchup and force OSU's hand.

Quick hits

The Good
- Wiggins was incredible on the glass last night. It seemed like he really put a lot of focus on rebounding against the Cyclones and then went out and did it.

• Selden played a lot better than the box score indicates. Those six assists included probably the best pass of the season (the rocket from 30 feet away for the Perry dunk) and two of the best entries to Embiid (both placed so that Embiid was turning into his shot as he caught the pass). Selden was also probably the best perimeter defender last night.

• Embiid dominating in the paint. He had both his best block of the year (the rejection and takeaway on the dunk attempt in the second half) and his best post move (the spin on the baseline for the lay up following said block). Embiid has the opportunity to be the most dominant player in college basketball.

• Tharpe's play overall was beautiful. A little sloppy with the ball at times, but he was scoring and still getting everyone involved.

• I had advocated that Traylor probably shouldn't play against ISU, but he played and put forth his usual great effort on both ends.

The Bad
- 24 turnovers. That's one of the two things that kept ISU in this game. We win by 20 if we cut the turnovers down. 7 TO by Embiid. 6 by Wiggins. 4 from Tharpe. That's 17 TO from 3 guys that will have the ball in their hands constantly every single game. Must be cleaned up.

• 34 FT attempts by ISU. This was the second thing that kept the Cyclones around. ISU shot 31% from the field. Depending on their half court sets, they wouldn't have cracked 60. Putting them on the line nearly 3 dozen times kept them in it, and had they shot a bit better from 3, may have made this game much stickier down the stretch.

• 6 points off the bench. Yes, KU has a lot of firepower in the starting lineup, enough so that every starter except Embiid has scored 20+ points twice in the last five games. But they still need to get something from their bench. This is something to keep an eye on.

• Naadir Tharpe's ankle. I still don't like the way he's running. He is playing fine, but I am not convinced that he is healthy. This is also something to watch, because the schedule doesn't afford more than 5 days between games at any point until the end of the regular season.

• The rotation last night revealed my concern. We tried to play two inside players against their spread sets and ended up fouling a lot. Embiid (fouled out), Black (fouled out), Ellis (4 fouls) and Traylor (3 fouls) accounted for 17 of our 26 team fouls. I think we need to match up with more quickness in the rematch, because I doubt ISU shoots that poorly (16% from 3 and 31% overall) again.

The Ugly
- Perry Ellis' continued struggles against physical front lines. Perry has shot below 50% four times this season (Wake, Villanova, SDSU, last night). He has scored fewer than 10 points two other times (Florida, Georgetown - exception due to injury). I understand that Perry is not a physical player, but he can't basically become half the player he is just because a team gets more physical - (averages 13.3 points overall, a shade under 7 in those 6 games). I bring this up because it was an issue last year, and, although he has been MUCH improved this year, it's still an issue.

• Joel Embiid allowing himself to get baited into technicals and flagrants. As I said before, officiating crews receive reports prior to each game with things to look for. Given that last year's game was controversial and had some post game issues (and threats), I had a feeling that things would be watched closely. Add to that the fact that Embiid got tossed on Saturday and I knew they would have an eye on him. Just foolish on his part to let himself get tangled up again. He needs to be VERY aware that officials will not hesitate to hit him with another flagrant or T if he gets involved in something at this point.

@KirkIsMyHinrich I would flip Tharpe and Selden if Kane plays. Hoiberg loves to post up smaller guards. He would absolutely love to see Tharpe matched up against the much bigger and stronger Kane, especially if Kane's ankle is less than 100%. Post ups would make it easier for him to play without putting to much pressure on that ankle offensively. I wouldn't want to expose Tharpe to that many possessions in the post. Selden would be able to handle that better IMHO.

@tundrahok I agree. However, he has to be careful about that.

As I noted last week, each officiating crew gets a report in their pregame of things to watch for. For example, leading up to tonight's ISU game, I'm sure they will receive a report about what happened last year so that they are aware of the fans sitting courtside.

Now, because of Embiid's actions, that will probably appear in the next several reports as something to watch for. That elbow may earn him some quicker whistles in the future, which could get him into some foul trouble at inopportune times.

@iowajayhawk2005 I think Traylor could handle the duties playing a stretch 4 and I also like his energy. My thing is, if I can only play one big guy at a time, I'd rather that one big guy be either Embiid or Ellis. If I thought we could stay in a more traditional lineup, I'd like the Traylor matchup a little more, but I think ISU may pull us out of that traditional set.

I'd actually be tempted to show a lineup of Tharpe, Selden, Greene, White and Wiggins. That's a lineup that in some ways is exactly like the one ISU will present, but with more raw talent than ISU can match with.

@jaybate 1.0 This is right on the money.

I'd take it even a step further. Look at the body types. First, let's get Lebron out of the way because nobody is built like that. Coming out of high school, he was listed at 6-8, 240. At that size (about the size that T-Rob was when he left KU), Lebron was as quick as most NBA guards, with the same ball handling ability, but as strong as some NBA power forwards, combined with the explosive leaping ability rivaled by few in the world (40+ inches). Nobody else in the world is built like that. Lebron is a Transformer. He can be a tank. He can be a sports car. He can be an ATV. He can be a jet. At times, he can be all of those things at different moments on the exact same play.

Kobe, as you aptly pointed out, is not quite the same. Young Kobe could be a sports car or a jet, in much the same way that young Jordan could. The difference was that Kobe had a very good jump shot pretty early in his career.

Wiggins is in the same sports car/ jet range as young Kobe. He has the agility and explosiveness, but lacks the power to just bull through defenders. He is different than many of the sports car/ jet players in that he is much taller and longer. People see his leaping ability and see Lebron, or a young Nique. What they forget is that those guys were both more power players. Wiggins is speed and agility. He's a Ferrari hugging the turns. He's a Lamborghini going 0 to 80. He's a lear jet barreling down the runway for takeoff.

Lebron is a different beast. He's a tank boxing out a 6-10 power forward for a rebound, then a sports car exploding from the pack in the paint at high speed, converting to an ATV as he moves through the lane on the other end, then a jet as he explodes off the floor for the finish.

On that same type of play, Wiggins is a jet soaring for the rebound, then a sports car using his speed and agility to weave through the defense. The problem for Wiggins right now is that he doesn't yet have the power to convert back into a jet to finish, so he's trying to finish as a sports car, careening around curves. He has to get back to being a jet and turning that forward momentum into upward momentum for the finish.

First things first, if Kane is out, or even limited, that's a huge blow to ISU. I watched both the Baylor-ISU game and the OU-ISU game. Kane is an absolute beast. He had 30/8/9/5 (points, rebounds, assists, steals) against Baylor and 23/9/4/1 against OU. Throughout his career he's been a stat sheet stuffer. At Marshall, he averaged roughly 15/5/5 for his career. The sprain looked like a high ankle sprain on TV. If that's the case, that's a three-five week healing time to be 100%. We will see.

As for tonight's game, it will be interesting.

Hoiberg is an NBA style coach in that he really pushes towards matchups. This is why ISU gave us problems last year, and why Coach Self really has to be careful this year with his rotation.

Assuming Kane doesn't play (which is my guess), ISU will probably go with a lineup of Ejim, Niang, Hogue, Long and Thomas. Morris will be off the bench and either Dorsey-Walker or Edozie will see spot minutes off the bench. Percy Gibson may see some spot minutes in this one, but I doubt it. Every single one of those guys is between 6-2 and 6-7 except Edozie at 6-8 and Gibson at 6-9.

All of ISU's guys that play regularly can handle the ball, shoot from the perimeter and run the floor. This means that our 4's and 5's will have to defend out away from the basket. Everybody that plays significant minutes for them has made at least 11 3's this year.

If I were Coach Self, the following players probably would not play tonight due to matchup issues. Tarik Black and Jamari Traylor, because ISU does not use a traditional post player and they will get into foul trouble defending on the perimeter. Conner Frankamp, because ISU loves posting their guards against smaller players. Frank Mason would also see his minutes dwindle a bit tonight for that reason. This could be the night that we see both Andrew White III and Brannen Greene get back into action. Both are midsized players that can defend the perimeter, handle the ball and play in space.

I would envision that we will see a lot more minutes tonight with KU playing four perimeter players around Ellis or Embiid to match up with the perimeter oriented Cyclones.

If they had Kane, this would be more interesting, but without him, I see the Hawks pulling away late for a 8-12 point win.

@Kip_McSmithers the Power Six would be in charge of all sports that they participate in. The revenue generated from football and basketball would pay for the other sports, but instead of splitting the pot 350 ways, you split it 80 ways.

If Selden, Wiggins and Embiid play like that, KU is outright untouchable. Just too much depth and talent. That's the kind of game I have been waiting for. It will be interesting to see if this carries over to the rest of the season.

@iowajayhawk2005 Ironically, we have come to a place of agreement. That truly is the American way.

Six power conferences will eventually rule the land. When that happens (and the NCAA is either destroyed or pushed to the brink of relevance) those power six conferences will allow transfers, both between non-power 6 schools and also between the power 6.

There will be rules regarding transfers (i.e. things like no more than one transfer without sitting out to prevent a player from simply school hopping), but once the elephant in the room is exposed (i.e. that the sports are a profit making engine) many of the sports specific rules governing transfers and eligibility will disappear, as will many of the recruiting restrictions. This will be in all sports that the Power Six participate in, not just football and basketball.

I am undecided on Lyle. I like Rashad Vaughn's upside a little better than Lyle, mostly because I could see Vaughn being one of the best 5 players in that class when it's all said and done. He has the talent to be an elite level scorer. Lyle is a good player, probably even a very good player. But I can't see him being an elite level guy on either end. On the other hand, that probably means Lyle would be at KU longer than Vaughn would be.

Of course, a lot of this will depend on what happens with Greene, White and especially Selden.

@wrwlumpy I didn't initially appreciate the amount of ground Selden covered to get to that ball. That's an incredible effort play. He goes from being nowhere near the play to making the play. I bet Coach Self had that on a running loop in the film session.

@JayHawkFanToo There is another possibility.

Officials are typically given pregame information. Things to watch for, play situations, etc. It's possible that they were told that a couple of KU's recent games got too physical and were implored to clean this game up. Unfortunately, we won't know that because we will never be privy to the pregame notes they get from the director of officials.

@iowajayhawk2005 Of course the coaches and NCAA want more stringent policies. They are the group in power. The status quo works to their advantage - why would they want that to change. It is not in their interests.

However, the story of this country is one of making sure that those in power cannot abuse that power, or utilize that power in such a way as to limit the choice of those over whom they hold that power.

Take professional baseball for example. Once upon a time, a player was the property of the team that drafted him. Period. End of story. Then along came Curt Flood, who challenged the reserve clause. Thus began what we know today as free agency. Did the owners want free agency? Of course not. Does free agency exist? Absolutely.

So let's look at the NCAA. The house of cards is crumbling. It won't fall today, won't fall tomorrow. But mark my words, the end of the NCAA is coming.

Just last year, EA Sports settled a lawsuit with former student athletes and agreed to stop making the NCAA Football video game series. Did the NCAA, which receives licensing fees for EA Sports to make the game, want EA to 1) stop making the game and 2) leave them to defend the lawsuit alone? I bet not. Did it happen? Youbetcha.

Last fall the NCAA shut down its NCAA store ↗. Do you think they wanted to shut down that revenue stream?

Slowly but surely, the NCAA is losing control over the players that generate the revenue that it profits from.

Right now, a student on an academic scholarship can transfer to any school he or she wants at any time with no restrictions. Most schools offer transfer scholarships, so a student could, if they were academically gifted, transfer from one institution to another as a student without forfeiting any scholarship money. Unless they are an athlete.

Just a hunch, but that's probably going to change, too.

@truehawk93 Clark played well, but I think it's likely he does that again. That's the third time this season that he has gone for 30+ (also did that against Michigan State with 32 in a loss and UT-Arlington with 31 in a win). He's gone over 20 four other times this year. He's a very good player.

Selden played his best basketball of the year last night. My only criticism of him is that down the stretch, with him having his best game of the year, he made himself easy to guard. His jump shot was working, so OU had to get up on him defensively, and yet he only drove to the basket twice down the stretch. I'd like to see him be even more aggressive. He's a good enough passer that if he starts attacking the rim things will open up for the rest of the offense.

Perry had a good game last night, but I would like to see him play that way against guys his size. OU sent a bunch of 6-7 guys at him and he owned the paint. He needs to do that against teams that can send guys that are 6-8 and 6-9, too.

Wiggins pulled a no show last night. Most frustrating of all, he did so in a game where he didn't even seem to be playing as hard as he could have. I know the foul trouble disrupted him, but I would have liked to have seen better overall effort.

@iowajayhawk2005 If a paid professional coach is the exact opposite, why should they be given more freedom?

That's like saying that a college student that takes an internship cannot then leave that internship for a different internship if they are not happy with the program they are in. That would not fly in the work world.

If you're paid, you can be restricted on a much higher level than if you are not. I have a full time job. My hours are pretty well set. I have to take vacation if I want time off. Occasionally my company hires interns (unpaid students). We set their schedule around their classes. They are not required to take vacation when they want time off. They can just call or email to say they need to take the day off. All they have to do is meet their curriculum requirements. I can't put more restrictions on them because they are not employees.

Currently, players are not being paid, so the restrictions should be low, not high. Coaches are paid, so they should have higher restrictions, not less.

I knew Conner would come in at some point during this season and have an impact. However, let's not get carried away. Conner played well, but he's still our third best option at the point. He will probably have another couple games like the one he had last night, but that doesn't make him a starter. In limited exposure, he can be quite successful. If he plays too much, opponents can key on his weaknesses.

For as well as he played (and he did play quite well), his line of 5 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist in 13 minutes isn't a spectacular one. I like the 0 turnovers and the efficiency (2-3 from the field). But he also had 4 fouls and pretty clearly was being keyed on as the guy to attack on the defensive end in the second half when he was in. Good game, but let's not just hand him 25 mpg on last night's performance.

@iowajayhawk2005 After every good season, mid major teams have to re-recruit their coaches and sign them to bigger contracts? Why? Because the major conference schools come calling. Why should the players be treated differently, particularly since their scholarship can be revoked at any time?

Most people believe that scholarships are guaranteed for 4 years. This is incorrect. They must be renewed each year. Most of the time, that's a mere formality, but there are plenty of situations each year where scholarships are not renewed for certain players. If your scholarship is not renewed you have four basic choices - either pick up the tab to stay at your current school, transfer out of Division 1, transfer to another D1 school (and sit out) or transfer in D1 and apply for a waiver to play immediately and hope the NCAA rules in your favor. How is that fair?

@jaybate 1.0 I think that rule change is coming. The rule where players can transfer after they complete their degree has worked well. That seems to have been a test case. It hasn't been complete chaos, which I think some were worried about.

I think the only tweak would need to be adjusting the late signing period for incoming freshmen. Transfers would need to be given a window of time to explore and exercise their intentions, but schools losing (or gaining) players would also need the flexibility to fill out rosters with transfers and/or recruits. It would be severely unfair if, for instance, a player could transfer and then cost a player at his new school their scholarship to make room for the transferring player.

The only other tweak I would make is that if a coach left school X, he could not take his roster with him without the previous school's permission. This would prevent schools from hiring Coach X to resurrect their program, knowing that Coach X would bring with him a few of his select players.

@jaybate 1.0 That's a great point about how things change as coaches age and get more experience, but also get further from the world that their players live in. I would add that as coaches become more and more successful, the gap between the world that the most successful coaches live in and the world of the players they recruit is enormously different.

Successful coaches are incredibly wealthy. Top 2% of the US wealthy. Most of their players come from households in the lower to middle income brackets. Once you have lived on the hilltop, it's much more difficult to relate to what's happening down in the dell, even if you visit all the time, because when you visit, you also get to leave.

The best conquer that gap as you so correctly stated. And this is where communication is key. Can Bill Self communicate clearly to someone that is half his age, from a lifestyle that he hasn't lived in 20-25 years what he expects of them and how they can meet (and exceed) those expectations?

Communicating and relating to people depends on what you say, of course. But more than that, it depends on how you say it, as well as the non-verbal communication that goes along with it. I have discovered in working with people from different backgrounds (financial, ethnic, cultural, education, etc.) that what I may think your understanding of a situation is given my background may be completely different from your understanding given your background. That is the real gap that Bill Self (and any other coach) has to conquer to reach his players.

@jaybate 1.0 I like your ideas, but the question with Ellis remains - can he defend 3's on the perimeter? Perry is not a very adept perimeter defender, as that is not something he has really been asked to do. When he has had to step out on the floor, it has been with very mixed results. Offensively, I think this works, but defensively, I have my reservations.

@truehawk93 The schedule is something that I have factored in. I think KU has played a Sweet 16/ Elite 8 level schedule. Most teams to this point have played a round of 64 or round of 32 level schedule. It would not surprise me at all if Duke, Florida, SDSU, and Villanova all advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond.

@Hawk8086 I picked four losses for one reason and one reason only.

Bill Self has never lost more than 4 conference games while at KU. He went 12-4 his first two years, then 14-4 last year. Every other season he has been at three or fewer losses. That's one of the reasons the streak exists. It's awfully hard to finish ahead of a team that only loses a couple of conference games every year.

Perry is a very nice interior player. However, he is a bit of a college tweener. Not big or strong enough to battle in the post against similarly sized players, not quick enough to move to the wing. I would toy with the idea of playing he and Embiid together less. Play Perry with someone like Lucas, another very skilled big, where they can use their passing and execution to help each other, while pairing Embiid with Black or Traylor to allow their athleticism to complement Joel. I wouldn't do this against everyone, but against teams that can put an athletic 6-8 or 6-9 guy on Perry, I would think about it.

The freshmen as a whole need to step up. I think Selden and Wiggins have spent too much time trying to fit in and be good teammates, not create waves, etc. It's time for them to push all of that aside and become the lead aggressors on both ends of the floor. It's nice that Frank Mason tries to step into that role, but he is probably the 5th or 6th best player on this team. The best players, especially Wiggins, need to assert themselves.

Sticking with Selden for a minute, he's really been an enigma. He will make an incredible play and then almost disappear for several minutes at a time. Maybe he needs to be [p'ed off for greatness](

The last key is the PG situation. I think Tharpe is the guy. He's a pass first guy, which is what is required if Wiggins and Selden step into their appropriate roles.

Ultimately, that's the key. Basketball is about roles and everyone has to step into their role. Wiggins is the star. He doesn't get to pass that responsibility on to Wayne or Joel. He's the star. With that comes expectation and he has to bring it every single night.

Wayne is the second banana. He is responsible for doing everything that Wiggins can't do that night. So if Wiggins is struggling to hit from the perimeter, Wayne needs to help spread the floor with his shooting. If KU needs help on the glass, he does that. If it's defense, he does that. His job is to fill in wherever he can to make sure KU is functioning.

Joel's job is to dominate the three feet. It's said that the three feet around the basket are where championships are won. Joel should dominate that real estate. Nothing should happen within three feet of the rim without his express written permission.

Perry's job is to be steady. Catch ball on block. Score. Rinse. Repeat. It's that simple for Perry. Same time again tomorrow.

And if all of those things are happening, then Naadir can do his job, which is to get the ball to everyone else. Unfortunately, as we have seen, everyone else isn't doing their job, which means now Naadir is trying to do things he has no business doing, because it's not his job.

Lots can be learned from coaches, both good and bad.

I can honestly say that I learned a lot from my high school basketball coach. I can also say that I had a very shaky relationship with him in high school, and have not spoken to him since I was a freshman in college. That isn't to say that he was a bad coach. Not at all. We won a state title and I learned some invaluable lessons both about basketball and about life.

The most valuable thing I learned, though, was that coaches have to be very open with their players about their expectations, and how those expectations can and should be met. My coach constantly jerked several players minutes around, mine included. As a result, during one season we went into an enormous teamwide swoon because almost no one knew what they were expected to do on a nightly basis.

I think this is the danger that Coach Self is flirting with right now. I don't know what his relationship is with Andrew White, or Brannen Greene, or Landen Lucas, or Tarik Black or, Jamari Traylor. I do know that those guys play some nights, don't play others, play sporadically others.

The key is communication, which is something that we won't see from where we are. If he goes to those guys and says, for instance, Tarik, this team plays small so you probably won't get many minutes tonight because we are going to play more perimeter guys, that helps Black understand that he isn't doing something wrong, but that its a bad matchup. Or say to Greene, you need to contribute more in the ball handling department so that we can get you some minutes, so he knows what he needs to do to get into the rotation consistently.

What he can't do is just play his core 6 guys (Wiggins, Embiid, Ellis, Selden, Tharpe, Mason) and then not tell those other five what's going on because they will play their butt off one night, not play at all the next and get frustrated. I know because that is what happened to me.

Communication may be what changes this season, for better or for worse.

@wissoxfan83 It stands for Player Efficiency Rating and was created by John Hollinger at ESPN. The formula is somewhat complex, and is adjusted for pace (how many possessions per game the team averages. The formula can be found here ↗

@dylans Are those PER's pace adjusted for college, or for pro? With 8 more minutes per game, that could distort the numbers slightly. No criticism, as this is good info. More just a numbers question

Oklahoma State is the best non-KU team in the conference, and they lost their best interior player for the season. I could see that costing them 3 conference games (likely cost them the K-State game already).

Baylor is a notch below Oklahoma State. Or they were, prior to the Cobbins injury. Now they are probably even with OSU. But Baylor is traditionally inconsistent, particularly on the road.

K-State has a nice win, but I doubt their ability to go into hostile environments and get wins in conference. Check back in a couple weeks when they have had to go on the road.

Texas Tech and TCU are just plain not good enough to win the conference.

Texas is up and down, sometimes in the same game. I don't think they can put together enough 40 minute games to finish higher than about 4th at best. I have them finishing sixth right now. Oklahoma is similar, except with less talent, but more discipline and experience.

West Virginia isn't very strong. They are probably two players away from being a contender.

That leaves Iowa State. Really, the Oklahoma State situation has helped them more than anybody else. ISU will be a nightmare at Hilton for everybody. Because of the way their team is built, I think they will steal a couple of road games they probably shouldn't. If we don't sweep them, there's a chance they win the conference over us simply because they may steal a game somewhere (@Baylor, @OSU, @KSU) when they shouldn't, and I could see them legitimately going undefeated in conference at home, especially given our current lack of toughness.

Right now, I'd say the Big 12 will shake out something like this.

1t KU 14-4
1t ISU 14-4
3 OSU 12-6
4 KSU 11-7
5 Baylor 10-8
6t OU 8-10
6t Texas 8-10
8 WVU 6-12
9 Tech 4-14
10 TCU 3-15

Yes, that puts KU at 8 losses. I don't see them 1) going undefeated at home in the Big 12 and 2) winning at Gallagher Iba, Hilton, and Baylor, and also avoiding dropping a dumb game at Texas, OU, KSU or WVU (remember how bad KU looked there last year?). They find 4 losses somewhere. Let's just hope ISU also trips up 4 times.

@oldhwkfan When you are struggling to shoot, two things have to happen.

1) You have to get higher quality looks. Whether that means getting more open, or getting into the lane, you absolutely have to get higher quality opportunities.

2) You have to increase your effort level. It kind of goes with #1, but you really have to work on both ends when you are struggling to shoot well. That means defending and trying to create some transition opportunities, pounding the offensive glass for second chance opportunities, hustling for every loose ball.

You may not be able to always control whether the ball goes into the basket, but you can always control opportunities and effort.

@HighEliteMajor

I agree with all of your points and would add one more very simple point.

They played harder

That's it. Sometimes, basketball comes down to simply which team plays harder and tougher. Yesterday, for all 40 minutes, that team was San Diego State. They wanted that win badly and they played every single possession like that win meant everything. We did not.

They attacked. We were attacked. They were on their toes. We were on our heels. We hoped something would go right. They made things happen.

If you go back and watch the game, look at how many times SDSU got to the rim and dunked. We blocked more shots yesterday than they did (13-eight), but when we got around the rim, they altered just about everything because we DID NOT DUNK THE BASKETBALL. It's almost as if this team believes they can only dunk on fast breaks. Sometimes you have to dunk in traffic just to let the other team know they can't push you around. We got pushed around yesterday. Not so much physically, but mentally, emotionally and psychologically.

They were the aggressors, and more often than not, the aggressor will win.

My prediction (which some of you may remember from my blog posts on our former home) is that the NCAA tournament will end in another 5-10 years when the NCAA loses its grip on the major colleges.

The Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, SEC, Pac-12 and perhaps the American will all break away from the NCAA and form their own collegiate division, complete with its own rules regarding recruitment, player benefits, etc. This is already nearly here, as the major players have basically torn the control of football away and created their own committee. In time, that committee will turn into the body that controls major collegiate athletics.

As it stands now, there will be between 70-80 "major colleges." The SEC has 14 schools. The ACC has 15. The Big 10 has 12. The Pac 12 has 12. The Big 12 has 10. That's 63 spots already taken, not counting the American. The schools that will join this new college athletic body will have to compete in the following sports - football, mens and womens basketball, baseball, softball, volleyball and track and field.

This new college athletic division will be heavily sponsored and that's where the shoe companies, apparel companies, etc. come in. Right now the NCAA can't do the deal because they have the veil of amateurism. But this new division will do that, and they will do it on an enormous scale. That's where the money for paying stipends to players will come from - large scale sponsorships. And because there will be a limited number of seats at the table - as few as 65 or 70 - the marketing potential is huge.

So who gets the last several spots? Is the American in? Could Florida International nab a spot? What about San Diego State?

Ultimately, I believe we will see five 16 team conferences for a total of 80 schools. Even the conferences are tiring of seeing schools bouncing from league to league. This agreement will end that and settle the landscape.

The losers are obviously the mid majors in all of this. Leagues like the Missouri Valley, MAC, and Mountain West will miss out, and stand to lose their strongest teams to the new level. The winners will be everyone that makes the cut (yes, even the schools that are regularly at the bottom of their leagues). And of course, the sponsors, who will redouble their efforts, this time with the money on top of the table.

@wissoxfan83 I hear you, but I just don't see it. Joel is gone. There's almost no way he stays at KU. He's a top 5 pick, maybe #1 overall. I thought at the beginning of the season he might stay, but he's just gotten too good too fast to be at KU beyond this year.

As for the others, quick and dirty scouting reports on Turner and Vaughn, as I already covered Lyle here:

Turner
Positives - He's an excellent shotblocker. Not only does he block shots, but he does it with a lot of control and keeps the ball inbounds quite a bit, which will lead to lots of fast break chances. He also has nice shooting mechanics for a player with his size. That can only help him. A willing (and effective) passer. Decent handles for a big guy, although he may be tempted to overuse them. Good athlete. Both quick and explosive.

Negatives - Pretty skinny and doesn't appear to be all that strong. He can grow into that, but he's at least 35-40 pounds away. Footwork isn't always the best around the bucket. He can get away with that now, but probably won't pass muster in college with more disciplined defenders. Fades too much on jumpshots when he doesn't have to. He's big enough to face up and go strong, but he fades. This may improve with added strength.

Overall - He's very skilled, especially for a player of his size. He has some bad habits, like shooting fadeaways and over dribbling, but he has a lot of talent. He and Alexander up front would be quite a shotblocking, rebounding, rim protecting tandem, although neither is as skilled around the bucket as Perry.

Vaughn
Positives - Has a very, very pretty jumper. When his mechanics are right, it's a beauty. I can understand why they say that he could be the best 2 guard if he's consistent with it. He could be an elite level 3pt shooter with those mechanics, especially given his size and strength. Actually, he should develop into an elite level 3pt shooter. His mechanics are that good when he's right. He can handle the ball and get to the rim. Just a nice overall offensive package.

Negatives - Defensively he needs work on his footwork, and probably on his consistency of effort, but what freshman doesn't? Good, but not great athlete (or maybe I've been watching too much Andrew Wiggins). His shot isn't consistent because he sometimes loses his release point and just sort of flicks the ball. When he keeps that release point high, his jumper is true. When he starts flicking it, it sails on him a bit. He can still hit those shots, but it's going to cut his percentages down.

Overall - Whether he is a very good or elite offensive player will depend almost entirely on the work he puts into keeping his form together on his jumpshot. He's very good anyway. He could be absolutely elite. He and Oubre on the perimeter would be a nightmare, and they are already teammates at Findlay.

@HighEliteMajor

I don't think it's the officiating. I think its a style thing.

The best way to create turnovers out top is to overplay passing lanes. At the D-1 level, most ballhandlers are good enough that you won't get many steals from outright stripping them or picking their pocket on the dribble. That means the only way to consistently generate steal opportunities is to overplay passing lanes. RussRob and Mario did this to perfection. They just made life so difficult because they would both play passing lanes so well.

Neither Selden or Tharpe plays in the passing lane. In fact, Selden rarely overplays at all. He is a good enough athlete to probably get away with some gambles here and there, but he plays straight up pretty much all the time. I don't know if that is something that he has always done, or if it is strategic, but he doesn't play the passing lanes aggressively. Naadir doesn't do that either. Mason does overplay, and he has gotten some steals from that, although he probably gambles a little too much.

Strategically, KU should probably push out a little further on the perimeter and try to be more disruptive than they have been so far this year. That starts with pressuring the passing lane, but again, this team defense has been poor. It's almost as if they are unsure of the rotation rules defensively, so each individual plays on their own island rather than keeping everyone on the string defensively and creating pressure through sharp rotations and intelligent gambles.

For example, Tharpe should be able to pressure the PG, knowing that if he gets beat on the drive, Embiid will swat it away. Embiid, then, should know he can protect the rim because Ellis or Wiggins will take away the front of the rim from his man when he rotates. Those guys should be able to do that because they trust Selden to cover up the kick out to the shooter in the short corner, or on the wing. But if that trust breaks down at any level, whether it's Tharpe not pressuring because he doesn't trust that Embiid has his back, or Embiid not committing to block the shot because he's unsure if help will slide over to cover him, or the help not rotating because they don't know that the kick out will be covered, EVERY LAYER REQUIRES TRUST.

That trust has to be automatic. It's not a thinking trust. It's a blind trust. I go here because it's my job to go here because my teammate will cover up the backside because it's his job to cover up the backside and I know that I can do my job because he will do his. That's how team defense works. Or at least that's how it's supposed to work.

Unfortunately, those rotations have been slow because guys either 1) aren't sure where they should be or 2) aren't sure their teammates will get to where they are supposed to be.

I said in another thread that this KU team should be holding opponents to under 60 ppg. Wiggins is an elite defender. Probably the best perimeter defender under Self since Rush. Selden is as good as Releford was. Just solid in every aspect. Embiid is a better defender than Withey or Aldrich because of his mobility, although he is not the shotblocker that either of them was when they left KU. Ellis is another very solid defender in every respect. Tharpe and Mason are very solid defensively. Black is a very good post defender. Traylor is above average individually. White and Greene are both average defensively, and Greene could probably be slightly above average. This is a team of above average individual defenders, with two (Wiggins and Embiid) elite defensive players. They should be a destructive, suffocating defensive force along the lines of what Kentucky had a couple years ago with Davis, MKG and the rest of that group.

That's what they should be. What they are is just a bunch of individual defenders that can be beaten with execution because, too often, the rotations just aren't there.

If they clean up the rotations, this team could be absolutely DEVASTATING on both ends. Scary efficient offensively. Next to impossible to score on defensively, forcing contested two point jumpshots on a regular basis. That's the vision for this squad. It's just a matter of trust.

@JayHawkFanToo

The mental aspect is something that is hard to measure. If the question is simply maturity, another year in college is a huge benefit. But it could be something else. Some guys just can't adjust to not being the best player on the floor anymore.

Let's take Xavier Henry because he's a really good example. He seems like a smart guy. Seems to work hard and keep himself in shape. Stays out of trouble. That would seem to be someone that would be successful in the NBA. The question you can't answer, though, is how will he handle being the seventh or eighth best player on his team? I can guarantee you that before he got to the NBA, Xavier Henry was probably never worse than the third best player on his own team at any point after the fourth grade. That means from probably 5th grade through his freshman year in college (almost 10 years), Xavier Henry was a star, and most of the time he was the star. He is not a star in the NBA. Probably never will be. He will be a very good player in the NBA, a rotation guy (provided he stays healthy), but probably never a star. For some guys, that is just too tough an adjustment.

Look at Adam Morrison. Another guy that was intelligent, hard worker, etc. But it was just too difficult for him to not be a guy that consistently had the ball in his hands as a primary scorer. Kobe Bryant himself said that Adam Morrison was good enough to play in the NBA. But can a guy make that transition from being the guy to being a guy? You never really know until the transition is made (or not).

Lots of thoughts from last night.

• Perry had a strong game last night. I was actually more impressed with his rebounding. My knock on Perry has always been that he didn't rebound enough for a player with his size. Last night he did.

• Our team defense has got to get better. We have a lot of good, great and even elite level individual defenders on this team. However, the team defense is poor. There was a play last night where Embiid made a great block, throwing a shot of the backboard. Unfortunately, no one accounted for Embiid's man, who drifted right to the front of the rim for the easy put back. That's great individual defense by Embiid, poor defense by whomever was responsible for the rotation. That's just an example. I don't have time to go through the game last night and highlight every play like that where individual's are making good defensive plays, but the team is not, but they are plentiful. I know Bill Self can correct that, and he definitely has the talent on hand to do it. This team should be giving up fewer than 60 points per game with the defensive talent they have on hand.

• You always hear coaches talk about wanting players to "get better every day." Joel Embiid is actually doing that. Every time I see him play, he is legitimately better. He's a top 5 draft pick at this point and an argument can be made that he could go number 1 simply because no one will want to have to explain why they passed him up.

• Wiggins is starting to really show why he was the #1 recruit. He made three plays last night that I'm not sure anybody else in the college game could make. There's only a handful of pros that make those plays. Just an elite, elite talent.

• Non-KU specific note. There are, right now, probably five franchise level players in next year's draft. The top 5 should be Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Randle, Smart in some order. The next couple are also strong with Aaron Gordon and Dante Exum (basically the Austrailian version of Andrew Wiggins). So right now, spot number 8 is the scary draft position. You could end up with Willie Cauley-Stein and he becomes a poor man's Joel Embiid, or you could end up with Willie Cauley-Stein becoming Xavier McDaniel. The first half of the lottery is stacked. The real skill is figuring out which guys will be stars in the rest of the first round, because there are always bargains after the top 5.

• Wayne Selden is really frustrating to watch at times. Last night he hit that step back jumper off the drive. That's absolutely an NBA quality move. There are probably only 8-10 SG's in college basketball that can get and hit that shot against that defense. But then you look at his line and it's pretty miserable overall. Selden needs to just relax and play ball. He seems to be over thinking every play and that is limiting his natural abilities.

@Careful you

There is a lot more to life than money. I can certainly attest to that. My argument was based only on the fact that the ESDI exists as a way of protecting the athlete in case their athletic career is jeopardized by pointing out that the protection is actually a very poor estimate of the amount of protection necessary for almost every student athlete that would be eligible to obtain the protection. The ESDI is supposed to eliminate the risk associated with a career threatening injury, but it covers maybe 25% of the likely earnings.

I look at it in the same way that someone would look at attending medical school. Yes, there is a lot of hard work, late nights, student debt, residency, etc. that goes into becoming a doctor. There are undoubtedly many that choose other professions because they don't (or can't) endure those rigors. But there are certainly non-financial benefits associated with becoming a medical doctor - prestige, lifestyle, intelligence, social status, the people you meet, etc. We can't begin to measure those.

In the same way, we can't begin to measure the change in someone's life that occurs if they lose out on a pro career due to an injury. Imagine if Jay Williams (former Duke star) has that motorcycle accident in college rather than the pros. Is he an ESPN commentator now? This isn't about the money he made as a pro. This is about rewritting not only his basketball career, but his life after basketball. That would change everything about his adult life.

And that is why the advice I would give would always be to go. A shot at the pros is a life changing event. Not just because of the money. It's life changing because of everything that comes with being a pro athlete, both the good and the bad. That's not promised, and that chance may not ever come back.

I don't know that you can compensate that at all, insurance or not.

@JayHawkFanToo

The problem is that most NFL or NBA first rounders will make well over that much money over the course of their careers. Plus, how many can really afford the extra premiums, which are in the thousands of dollars for that type of coverage.

Let's look at a guy like Michael Olowakandi, often cited as a bust (rightfully so) earned over $35m in his NBA career. His first contract was for over $14m. He made over $5m in his first two years, which is what all first round contracts are guaranteed at in the NBA. That's a $30m difference

Remember Shaun Livingston? He of one of the worst knee injuries in the history of the NBA? That happened in his third NBA season, when he would have been a junior in college. He missed what would have been his entire fourth season, but because his option had already been exercised for his fourth year, earned $4.4m for that season. He had already earned nearly $10m for his career by that point. He's rehabbed his way back into the NBA and has made another $10m plus, but that probably would not have been possible if that injury happens in college, as most teams wouldn't have risked more than a training camp invite on someone with that injury history.

Or take Jonathan Bender. He had a degenerative knee condition. His most effective pro years came before his 22nd birthday. In his first three years, he made $7m, with another roughly $3m to come in his fourth year and, because it appeared he was developing into a budding star, signed a contract extension worth another $20m+. He played in less than 50 games total after his fourth season in the league.

I like the fact that the ESDI exists. Unfortunately, the cost of insurance is beyond what most of these guys can afford and they lose quite a bit in future earnings.

Looking at the Toledo schedule, it's not too bad. They haven't played any major conference teams other than Boston College, but their schedule is full of pretty solid mid and low major schools. They also have four true road wins, which is pretty impressive. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them finish first or second in their division in the MAC and have a chance to go to the NCAAs depending on their run in the MAC tournament.

As an aside, I imagine it would be tough at a school like Toledo. You either play tons of road games against major conference teams or you mix in some home games with mid majors and low majors such as yourself to generate some gate revenue. I know Toledo and others get some money for playing at KU, but I wonder how that works out for them financially to play more road games against power conference teams?

I watch the games as filler mostly. I will watch matchups or teams that I think are interesting or fun to watch, but I don't watch full games other than the national championship.

It's nice to have a random game on in the background on New Year's Day, but I'm not really focused on it. I'm curious about this year's Cotton Bowl matchup with OSU and Mizzou, so I will probably watch most of that, but that's about it.

@JayHawkFanToo has it right. If you are a lottery pick, staying doesn't make much sense because there is too much money at stake, and too much risk that an injury or other circumstance could knock you out of the lottery by the "next big thing."

Marcus Smart made a good personal decision last year to stay in school. He did that even though he understood that financially, it may not have been his best decision. Last year, he goes no lower than 5th. This season, he may be on the board at 8 or 9.

Mitch McGary stayed even though he was a lottery pick. Now, depending on how his back surgery goes, he may not even be a first rounder. The decision to stay one year may end up being two for him and, depending on whether the back is fully healthy, could cost him eight figures by the time everything is said and done.

As for Selden, right now I think he is a mid to late first rounder. I can see all of the pieces there to make a very good NBA 2 guard. Unfortunately, he has not consistently put those pieces together for full games. Wayne has a tendency to make one or two plays a game that make me say, yeah, that guy is an NBA talent, then disappear for the rest of the night. But if you are an NBA scout, you have to look at the fact that he has the ability to do NBA level things moreso than the consistency. A guy like Releford last year was consistent, but he couldn't do NBA level things. I think Travis will carve out a nice career in Europe and maybe have a chance to get a couple of 10 day deals in the NBA, but Selden has the talent to be a rotation level player, maybe even a starter/ fringe all star type (depending on the development of his perimeter shot). So I would say that right now, as it stands, Selden is still a OAD, but his status is the most unclear of any of the freshmen, as Wiggins and Embiid are absolutely gone and Greene, Frankamp and Mason are all staying.

@JayHawkFanToo Great post. Back surgery for a big guy is always a scary prospect. Had he gone last year, he likely would have been a first round pick, meaning his contract would have been guaranteed for two years and a team would have a few million dollars invested in him. Instead, no NBA team has anything invested in him, so if they aren't sure he is 100%, he's a second rounder and there's no financial investment. There isn't any insurance in the world that can cover the potential losses there.

@approxinfinity I agree with both of your points there, particularly the point about shooting. I think Perry would cause an offensive clog because I am not sure that he is a serious catch and shoot threat from three on the wing. I have seen him hit threes from the top of the key, but not the wing or baseline, which is where he would get the majority of touches if he was playing the 3 spot.

@jaybate 1.0 Playing Perry at the 3 may not get our best 5 on the floor at the same time. Our best 4 players are (in order of talent) Wiggins, Embiid, Selden, Ellis. We can play that group together without moving anybody away from their natural position, as long as we put a PG with them. I think Naadir has demonstrated recently that he is up to that task. Unless you are off the belief that another big (Lucas, Black, Traylor) is going to be our 5th best player every night, I'm not sure much is gained by moving Perry to the perimeter, where he may not be as effective because of where he will get the majority of his touches.

The other question, which @approxinfinity touched on, is how much this would compromise our D. I haven't seen Perry defend the perimeter for extended minutes. In one or two minute stretches, he does fine. Whether he could match up there legitimately for 5-7 minutes when a player knows that Perry has to face them up possession after possession is a concern.

First things first, glad to hear Perry is doing better. Let's hope he takes the time off that he needs. Concussions are nothing to play around with.

Second, this game demonstrated why we need a guy like Black. Without Black, we lack an enforcer and there is little chance we run through March without hitting a team that gets physical with us and we have to get physical back. Tarik Black is the guy you don't want to have to get physical with if you are the other team.

Finally, Joel Embiid is threatening to become an All-American. I don't even believe what I am seeing sometimes. Just incredible.

Quick scouting report for those that haven't had a chance to watch him.

Positives - he plays taller than his listed 6-4. Uses his size effectively. Gets "tall" on his jumpshots (i.e., elevates well, and elevates straight up rather than leaning, fading, etc.). Mechanics of the jumper are clean. He is a "tough shot maker." Lots of useful athleticism, although I would not label him an elite athlete. Willing and effective passer. Good vision. Willing defender that could be above average with work.

Negatives - not an elite athlete, although definitely a very good one. Handle seems a little loose at times, probably needs to play off the ball in college to be most effective. Settles for a lot of contested jump shots. He hits those now, may not hit those in college against bigger and better defenders (the counterpoint to being a tough shot maker).

Overall - In some ways reminds me a bit of Keith Langford, but with better shooting mechanics (and right handed). Whether that converts to being a better overall shooter remains to be seen, but I think he will be an effective scorer at the collegiate level. Not sure he will be an elite scorer because I think there will be times where he has to take too many tough jump shots to be efficient. I love him as a second scorer (with Oubre as the lead dog), not as inclined if he's the #1. I think he's at least a two year player, maybe 3 years unless he's growing. He could end up being a physical beast, as he hasn't grown into his body yet.