Huggy has a couple of Final Fours and Elite Eights but does not have a Title. He had his best chance was 1999-2000, when Cincinnati was a #1 seed but Kenyon Martin, the player of the year broke a leg just before the tournament and Cincinnati made it only to the second round.
JayHawkFanToo
13427 posts
A well deserved honor, no question about it.
I agree.
As far as Keegan Story, he fails to mention that KU"S Opponents Offense is ranked #6 by KenPom, only VCU has the only other Opponents Offense ranked in single digits in the top 50; the next team team with Opponent Offense in single digits is Wofford at #93. Yes, our defense is ranked #43 but a lot of it has to do with playing teams with good offenses.
It does make a difference when you see the entire picture and not just the sliver the writer wants you to see to make his point.
Great win any way you look a t it. KU did adjust at half time and finished strong.
KU and OU now have an early lead in the conference race. Who would have thought that with the #3 SOS KU would be 12-2...
Only 3 unbeaten teams left and 9 with 1 loss in all of Division I, and of those 12 teams the closest SOS is Gonzaga a #19. There are only 12more teams total with 2 losses; every other team has 3 or more losses. I don't believe many people really understand just how well KU is doing considering the schedule it has played; if not for the Temple game, KU is easily top 5.
I like it...and so does Chuck...
It really depends on what package you have with your provider. Many will just provide ESPN and ESPN2 as part of the basic package and the other channels such as ESPNU and ESPN News(?) are part of add-0n packages. If you are getting the message on your TV screen, then ESPNU is likely not part of your package...cable package, that is :) and you will likely have to upgrade to get access to ESPNU and others; this is what I had to do to get access to ESPNU and FOX Sports channels and a couple of others.
ESPN3 is the channel that you access via the Internet and it will ask you to select your provider and login with your provider's information. most cable providers provide Internet as well. If your Internet provider does no have an agreement with ESPN/ESPN3, then you are SOL. I have access to all of them but thanks to Zenger, all KU programming on ESPN3 is blacked out for the entire state of Kansas and the Kansas City Metro area.
BTW, I still hate Zenger and I don't know which makes me feel dirtier, talking about packages or Zenger since they are both synonyms for...well, you know what... :) :) :)
...and so it starts. I am hopping it opens the floodgates.
Congrats to Coach Self and staff for a great get.
2 was the opening line and quickly changed to 3 (consensus) and now, 1 hour before game it has settled at 2-1/2 (consensus).
Consensus is now Baylor 2-1/2, so not really a big change. And you are welcome on the information; sometimes is fun to see if the numbers support what you gut is telling you...I believeI was right on Self vs, Drew, but then it is just my opinion and others might disagree.
I agree that a computerized model treats all teams equally, but it also can introduce the developer's own bias depending of how he sees different parameters. Many of the models have been developed by mathematicians with little knowledge of the game and who try to use numbers to account for everything when in real life you really cannot.
I did not based my comment on just the head-to-head result; you can look at all the parameters across the board and KU has better numbers in most if not all of them. Neither team played and yet MSU moved past KU in spite of all the numbers favoring KU. Like I said in my post, I understand that as the season moves on and more data is available the models get better, but at this point in the season, KenPoms seem to be unrealistic. You mention that MSU is losing close games and that is helping them, but you are completely overlooking the obvious...they are still losing! Do you think it is better to lose 20 games by one point each or to win the same 20 games by 1 point each? Under your premise, the teams that is 0-20 is rewarded for losing very close games while the teams that 20-0 is penalized for winning very close games...I understand that it is an extreme case and other factors are involved but the gist of it is still valid.
As far as the Vegas lines, you have to be careful on how you look at them. Initially they are set as close as possible to the most likely outcome with the sole purpose of having the bets balanced. If the betting is not balanced, and depending on the final outcome, Vegas can make a lot of money or lose a lot of money...Vegas does not like that uncertainty and the only guaranteed way for them to make money is to have the bets perfectly balanced and make money on the "vig" or commission it collects. Vegas will tweak the line not to better predict the outcome but to balance the bets, and on games where there are heavy emotions involved and one party is heavily betting one way, the final tweaked line is not close to what the outcome is expected to be but to the number that will bring the bets in balance, Vegas could not care less who wins a game, they only care about making money.
The gambling industry is a multi-billion business and I will guess they have access to resources that we don't know and the models they use are considerably more sophisticated and confidential that the public ones, plus they have access to "inside information" such as confidential injury reports, that KenPom, Sagarin and Massey can only dream of.
Very interesting discussion and several perspectives that reflects our own bias. Good to have you here to keep us on our toes and get our thinking caps on.
Yeap. That was indeed the brightest t moment for the football program in recent memory...of course he threw it all away by hiring Gill, but it does not diminish all the accomplishments he had. He had gravitas, Zenger...not so much.
Vegas has Baylor by 3 which means it will be a close game and when you factor the home court advantage of anywhere between 3 to 6 points, KU would be considered slightly better. I will take Self out coaching Drew at the end of the game so I will take KU.
I can't say I disagree with you since I have in the past advocated keeping this forum focused on all things KU.
As long as the thread is not dedicated to bashing another program(s) or individual(s), the squid and MUexempted, and it is college basketball or KU related, I don't have too much problem with it.
SZ just does not have the connections. Say what you want about Lew Perkins but he had the connections and if not for him, KU does not go to the Orange Bowl; it was the ultimate power play. Oklahoma, the Big 12, the ACC a and representatives of the Orange and Fiesta Bowl had come up with a deal to have Oklahoma play Virginia Tech. in the Orange Bowl and KU go to the less prestigious Fiesta Bowl and the proposal was submitted to the NCAA BCS committee; however, Lew was able to get the BCS committee to keep KU in the Orange Bowl. That is influence and contacts.
Baylor has had talent second only to KU in recent years and in some years better classes as well; however, the best he has managed to do is a second place tie (once) in regular conference play in the same time period as Self.
Since you asked, here are the numbers for the last 5 years.
**Self **
- Overall 156-29 - 84%
- Conference 73-13 - 86%
- Conference finish - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
- Post-season 5 NCAAs
Drew
- Overall 125-55 - 69%
- Conference 48-38 - 56%
- Conference finish - 2, 7, 3, 4, 6
- Post-season 3 NCAAs, 1 NIT
...still, worlds apart.
The conference record is the most telling since they not only play each other but now they play the exact same teams home and away and the strong or weak non-con schedule is not counted. BTW KU has always played a tougher non-con schedule than Baylor.
Let me ask you the following question. Suppose all top 100 programs lose their coaches and the only 2 coaches available are Self and Drew and you can hire Drew for one half of what you would pay Self...how many programs do you think would pick Self and how many would pick up Drew? My own answer is all 100 would choose Self, even at twice the salary.
So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss.
If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.
If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.
Sun Tzu - The Art of War
UK is the enemy and every win and loss affects the all-time win ranking, plus...KU might end up facing KU again in the Tournament, so it is helpful to be informed. Just my opinion and I could be wrong.
I know the players are Frank Mason and Trey Burke of Michigan. Both records are for their sophomore years and Burke's last year in college. Burke was a consensus 1st team All-American and much like Mason, the driving force in his team, so he would get the nod, although Mason's stats are pretty gosh darn good and by the time he is a senior, he might well be a 1st team All-American as well.
It really depend on which KU team shows up. Good KU like in the second half of the Florida and UNLV games and first half of the Utah game or bad KU such at the first half of the Florida game, second half of the Utah game or the entire UK and Temple games.
UK's talent, depth and A game are better than KU's talent, depth and A game. The key to offset their talent and depth is to get them off their A game and into their B or C game while playing an A game...makes sense? Ole Miss set a blue print on how to beat UK and it came close to doing it, although on paper UK did not play that bad, at least the number look decent, although with all its bigs, UK should have a much higher FG % and even that number is inflates by the 55% they shot from 3..
FG%
- Ole Miss 29-49 - 59.2%
- UK 25-60 - 41.7%
3 point FG%
- Ole Miss 9-17 - 52.9%
- UK 11-20 - 55.0%
Rebounds (O-D-T)
- Ole Miss 10-22-32
- UK 16-18-34
Steals-Assists
- Ole Miss 5-12
- UK 6-16
Fouls
- Ole Miss 29
- UK 18
Free Throws
- Ole Miss 19-22 - 86.4%
- UK 28- 40 70%
Looks like both teams shot very well from the 3 and the stats seem to be fairly even. The big difference was the poor 2 pt FG% by UK (14-40 or 35%) and fouls and free throws where UK outscores Ole Miss by 9 on 18 more attempts.
ISU barely beats Oklahoma State at home. It took two desperation blocks in the last few seconds to hang on for the two point win. Had ISU lost it would have changed the conference dynamics big time since two of the 3 teams (other than KU) expected to contend would have lost at home.
The evaluation on Oubre and Alexander seems spot on and pretty much what most members of this forum have mentioned.
I have also been wondering about LSU and its sudden attraction to recruits...do we have Calipari Part Deux?
P.S. FWIW, LSU is a Nike school
I do present hard numbers though. Just curious, do you believe that Self and Drew are at the same coaching level?
Look at the latest KenPom rankings...
KU and Michigan State did not even play this evening and yet KU dropped 3 spots and now sits behind MSU. KU has a better record in any way you look at, including overall record, SOS, record vs top 25, 50 and 100 teams, opponents O and D and more importantly KU beat MSU.How in the world can MSU be ranked ahead of KU? Same thing with Utah...and Baylor...and...I could go on...
Notre Dame just beat UNC, has a better record and yet it sits 4 spots below. Oklahoma at #7? Yes, they beat Texas but they have 3 losses 2 of them to mid-major Creighton and Washington, a team that is 0-2 in the PAC 12. I understand that the ranking will get better as the season goes on but at this point it seems grossly out of whack.
The RPI might not be the good but KenPom's ranking seems to be even worse.
Again, just my take on KenPom's ranking using the numbers he presents.
Good points., A few of my random thoughts as well...
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I agree, an average of computer rankings should be a component of the overall ranking, like the BCS football rankings used to include...I am not sure if they still do with the new playoff system...and KU not being in the conversation. :(
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You can use the top 25 or top 100 and will see the same trend; I picked the top 50 as an in-between compromise. KU has played only 6 of 13 games at home, I have not looked up the numbers for other teams but I will guess this is one of the lower numbers of home games of the top 25 or top 50 teams, so it should favor KU.
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If you read my posts, I am a firm believer that the best team does not always win the NCAA. KU was not even close to the best team in '88 (lost 2 out of 3 to KSU and 2 out 2 to Oklahoma, teams it beat in the tournament) but on a 2-out-of-3 or 3-out-of-5 format, KU probably has 2 or 3 more titles when it was truly the best team, including the year Syracuse won. Rick Pitino said the same thing on the round table interview he did on ESPN with Coach K, Roy Williams and Jim Boeheim.
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But then, shouldn't coming back from 18 down in the second half (Florida) also be considered a big plus? A tougher SOS naturally results in smaller margins of victory than playing punch bags, wouldn't you agree?
Interesting discussion with no wrong answers just different points of view.
I said before and I will say it again, The Big 12 might not have a legitimate top 5 team and maybe, just maybe a couple of top 10 teams, but from top to bottom there is no other conference nearly as competitive and tough as the Big 12. Conference teams will be battle tested (and bloodied) by the the time March Madness comes around...maybe this is the year.
"Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride" (Thanks Bette Davis)
P.S. Actually she said "bumpy night" but "bumpy ride" sounds better.
That can't be good.
Hello Jerry!
Self and Drew may be in the same conference but as far as coaching they are not in the same league. They are both in their 12th year as coaches at KU and Baylor
Self at KU
Overall record: 335–71 (.825)
Conference record: 151–31 (.830)
Conference Championships: 10 in a row
Post season; NCAA every year (11)
Drew at Baylor
Overall record: 216–161 (.573)
Conference record: 74–108 (.407)
Conference Championships: 0
Post season: 4 NCAAs, 2 NITs
In the same period of time Self has 119 more wins, 90 less losses, 10 more conference championships and 7 more NCAA appearances; the worst conference finish KU has is tied for second (1 time) on Self's 1st year and the best conference finish Baylor has is tied for second (also 1 time) on Drew's 7th years. Sorry HEM but Self and Drew are not even in the same conversation...although I will agree with you that they both make a lot of money.
Calipari can actually coach; Scott Drew? not so much. Baylor played best when Drew was suspended and the assistants coached the team.
You certainly got your money's worth from the old one...:)
I hear what you are saying but...
It has been said that Democracy is the worst system of government ...except for all the others. Likewise, it has been said that the RPI is the worst system but what system is better?
Look at the current KenPom ranking just 2-3 places on each side of KU...
13 VCU 11-3, SOS 9 vs top 50 2-3
14 Notre Dame 15-1, SOS 344 vs top 50 2-1
15 Baylor 11-2, SOS 90 vs top 50 1-1
16 KU 11-2, SOS 3 vs top 50 4-1
17 Michigan 10-5, SOS 78 vs top 50 1-4
18 Maryland 14-1, SOS 158 vs top 50 4-1
The record against top 50 comes from Jeff Sagarin since KenPom does not post these figures.
Does this ranking makes sense? How do you justify MSU being right behind KU with 5 loses, including 1-4 record against top 50 teams and a SOS 69 places behind KU? Wouldn't you think that KU's numbers are much better than Baylor's...and VCU's...and Notre Dame and its 344 SOS? Shouldn't Maryland be above those as well?
Yes, KU schedules smart, but it also has consistently one of the toughest schedules of any Div I program, and ...it also has to consistently win those games to get the full benefit. Any Elite program can schedule like KU but most don't because they rather have a sure win against a poor team than a tough game against better opposition. If you look at the top 50 teams, only KU and VCU have SOS in the top 10. If you extend to the top 20 SOSs then you can add UNC and Gonzaga. top 30 SOSs and you add Oklahoma, top 40 SOSs add BYU and Georgetown. In short of the top 40 ranked teams as per KenPom, only 2 have SOS in the top 10 (KU-3, VCU-9) and a total of 7 teams have SOS in the top 40. The reality is that the numbers I mentioned suggest that top teams avoid tough schedules...wouldn't you agree? All teams can game the system like KU, most "choose" not to.
I have always liked Pomeroy, Sagarin and Massey, not necessarily in that order, and I often cite their numbers in this forum. Which one would you say has the better method? Would you consider an average of these 3 methods a good indicator? I personally think Vegas is the best, since those are the guys that literally put their money where their mouth are. :)
I think you are correct. If Oubre continues to progress like he has in the last few games, he is as good as gone. At this time, I just don't see Alexander as a lottery pick.
ISU might be a little overrated this season, The have played one true away game, 4 games in neutral sites and 7 at home. They have played 2 top 25 teams, and they won one against Arkansas at home and lost to Maryland at a neutral site; they also have a bad loss to South Carolina at a neutral site. They are shooting 34% from 3 for the season and went 1-18 from 3 against South Carolina. This is no the same 3-point shooting team of past years.
Felix played 35 minutes and Taylor 29, so that was not really an issue. Texas had a bad shooting night
I don't think we can judge how good or bad Texas is based on last night game anymore than we can judge KU based on the Temple game. Texas is good but last night it played extremely poorly. Having said that, OU laid out a blueprint on how to beat Texas; they managed to out rebound the much taller Texas team by 42 to 37. I am sure all other conference coaches will be studying video of this game.
I started this post 3+ hours ago but had to take a call from a potential client that went 3 hours, so most might already be obsolete. :(
Interesting list. If you look at all the predictions, many have changed Bragg from UK or OSU to KU and KU seems to be in the lead over UK 44% to 31% based on all predictions; not a huge lead but a lead nonetheless.
Other predictions:
Malik Newman: UK-62%, KU-15% - A likely UK get
Brandon Ingram - Duke-53%, UNC-23%, KU-20% - Duke with a clear lead
Cheick Diallo: KU-57%, UK- 21% - Big surprise, KU with a big lead
Jaylen Brown - UK-39%, UCLA-39%, KU-11%
Tyler Dorsey - CAL-61%, KU-33%
The big unknown is Stephen Zimmerman.
That was Traylor "initiating offense," not from the top of the key, but all the way from KU's own baseline!!! :) :) :)
I believe that wee are saying the same thing...imagine that. The red herring comment was in reference to suggestions to increase the 3 point shots to as many as 70 per game, which I am sure you will agree is utterly ridiculous. In my post I mentioned 20-25 shots, the upper number when shot are falling, so I believe we are basically in agreement.
By the way, did you notice that several time KU set up traps when Ellis or Traylor would come out and double team and isolate the UNLV PG near mid-court? It seemed to rattle UNLV and forced them to keep and extra player to set up icks and help outside and somewhat abated their height advantage inside. UNLV ended up collecting 7 offensive rebounds and KU 17...big difference.
UT-KU Tie OU-ISU-WV Tie, BU, OSU, TCU-KSU Tie, TT
The current Bracketology has the Big 12 with 6 teams with OSU in the First Four Out and TCU in the Next Four Out. Lunardi indicated that the Big 12 could be the first conference to ever send 80% of its teams to the dance...of course I posted the same thing weeks ago...you are welcome Lunardi... :)
6 Conference teams are ranked in the in the top 25 in both polls and 2 more getting votes. Conference is good top to bottom.
You grossly underestimate Sean Miller. To say that he had "some" success at Xavier is like saying Coach Self has had "some" success at KU. Miller took an also run mid-major and brought it to the level of a major program; in many ways similar to what Marshall has done at Wichita State. Since he has been ta Arizona he has brought a program that had fallen on hard time and missed the tournament to a level comparable to the better years under Lute Olson (minus National Championship) and he is universally considered on of the top 10 coaches in College Basketball.
Likewise, Marshall is hot now because what he has done at WSU and it would not surprise me to see him land at a program considerably bigger than KSU. Weber, on the other hand has once again proven that he does OK with players he inherits but once he gets his own players he fails big time; I would not characterize him as "thorn in the side of Self" but maybe more appropriately as comic relief??? :)
Taking more 3 point shots is really a red herring and it is a proposition that after a point has diminishing returns.
Currently KU averages 55.5 shots per game and of those, 16 are 3 point shots. I think it would correct to assume that the majority of the 3 shots taken are at least somewhat open and by and large KU long range shooters are taking the shots when available. So how do you increase the number of 3 point shots from 16 to 30, 40 or even 70 as some have suggested? To do this you would have to take 15 more 3 point shots than the total number of shot the team currently takes. Logic tells you that the more shots you take, the more chance there is that the shots will not be open and will be contested since defenses will concentrate in stopping the barrage. and hence the chance of making them drops rapidly with an increase in attempts after, say 25-30 per game.
The 2012-13 ISU team, considered one of the top (if not the top) 3 point shooting teams in college averaged 26.6 3 point shots per game. Last year's Creighton team, the top 3 point shooting team in college basketball averaged 24 3 point attempts per game and averaged 10,.4 made shots per game for an extremely nice 0.421. To get to 70 attempts per game, KU would have to takes two and one half times as many shots as the 2012-13 ISU team and almost 3 times as many shots as the Creighton team. Completely unfeasible.
I can see increasing the 3 pointy shooting to maybe 20-25 when the shots are falling, but anything beyond that is counterproductive and would result in rapidly decreasing shooting percentage. I would be interested in how other members would justify taking anything above 30 shots per game.
Coach Self has always favored a 7-8 man primary rotation by the time the tournament comes around; BTW, he is no alone in this approach. This season he indicated that he might go to larger rotation because of the available talent; however, none of the players that are not getting minutes has really performed consistently enough to warrant more time; should Graham not be injured, he would certainly be part of the rotation. The two players that could see more time are Greene, which we all know is a one trick pony with multiple liabilities and Svi who has not yet found his stroke and has been wildly inconsistent.
Several reasons, the main one being money. Also, Nike might not necessarily be interested in a particular school. Take KU and KSU. I will guess that KU is not a preferred target for Nike since the big money maker, football, is mediocre at best, and the Kansas market is very small compared to other schools. KSU, on the other hand, has a very good football program and because, like KU, is in a small market, the contract is relatively small. As a flagship Adidas school, KU gets considerably more money from Adidas that it would get from Nike.
Yes, Nike has the majority of schools but only the big programs get the big bucks, the smaller programs get considerably smaller contracts, many of them consisting mostly of uniforms and little if any money. In short, many schools may want to switch to Nike but Nike might not necessarily be interested.
Like I said, the SEC is just too weak and other than Florida on a very good day, I just don't see any conference team giving them problems; it is very likely that they will finish the season unbeaten. However, once they get past the first couple of rounds on the tournament and the games become tougher, it will be interesting to see how players that were part of the platoon and don't get to play in the biggest stage react. As I mentioned, 7 players used up 90% of the playing time against Louisville and it is reasonable to expect a similar play distribution in the later rounds in the NCAA tournament.
Marshall was offered the UCLA job (and other high profile jobs) and passed, what makes you think he would take the KSU job? Just curious...
4th post from the top, last line...
Thanks. :) :) :)
I enjoyed the game (and result) on the big screen while staying warm with this blanket my daughter hand made for me for Christmas...I am one happy Jayhawk.
Unfortunately, it is the nature of the beast. Sponsorship and advertisement provide large revenues to athletic departments in a time that it is needed badly. As long as it is not obtrusive and in poor taste, I have no problem with it. I do not want to see ads on the court and I do not want to see ads on uniforms, like the Euro pro teams and like the NBA apparently is considering. I am not worried about AFH ever being renamed; I pity the fool that tries (Thanks Mr. T).
Interesting take and you could very well be right.
I would be surprised if the League winner has less than 4 losses and it would not surprise me for a team(s) to win with 6 losses. Other than Texas Tech., KSU and maybe TCU, every team can beat any other team at any time, particularly at home. Yes, the League is that strong from top to bottom
More often than not, Vegas gets it right, after all, these are the guys who put their money where their mouths are.