@truehawk93 I too am super excited about Alexander & Oubre (and Turner should Embiid leave and we land him)
icthawkfan316
653 posts
@truehawk93 I'm not attempting to alarm anyone. Follow the original post. It was asked if Self would be getting any pressure should the team make another early round exit. I said I can't fathom any real pressure, but I could see the administration sitting down and asking what he needs to succeed and maybe making some recommendations. Then another poster asks who "would have balls enough to ask Bill for a sit down?" My response was that they already have one. Of course it is all normal and nothing out of the ordinary. That's why I said they have one every year.
@JayHawkFanToo I like Stevens too. He'd be up there on my list if available, I just don't think he will be, at least for a few more years. I think Pitino returned to college coaching because he had little success in the NBA, not because he tired of the NBA dynamics.
I agree too that there isn't any coach I'd take over Self. It was just a hypothetical that gets thrown out there every so often. Usually it's the "what if Self retires tomorrow..." type question, but since it was asked if there might be any pressure should we have another early exit, I thought it would be a good chance to illustrate just how lucky we are to have Bill :)
@globaljaybird Well every year at the end of the year Bill & the AD have a sit down. Self has said so. I 100% agree that Self "writes his own ticket", that he IS KU athletics, but he still has a boss. I'm not saying it would be confrontational, but I wouldn't doubt them putting it out there like that.
Will there be some increasing pressure on Bill Self if we have an early exit again?
I can't imagine there being pressure on Bill from the administration. On top of everything else (the '08 championship, the '12 runner-up, 10 straight conference titles, ridiculous overall winning percentage, recruiting success, charity work, etc.), a probably seldom thought of reason as to why there wouldn't be any pressure on him is that I can't think of anybody else better right now that would be available. Say Bill leaves - either retires, moves to the NBA, or is forced out - who would we be looking at? The only coaches who can match his success - Donovan, Izzo, Coach K, etc. - most likely wouldn't make a lateral move like that, uproot themselves from the good thing they got going. So you're left with coaches who are not as established & successful, in which case it is a gamble. Manning? He'd be the sentimental favorite, but he hasn't shown enough at the D1 coaching level to guarantee we'd maintain the level of success now. Tad Boyle & Mark Turgeon would be other candidates from inside the KU family, but they've been D1 coaches for awhile, and have they really shown the chops to cut it at a place like KU? So maybe we do like we did with Self, and that's look to perhaps the second tier of coaches from successful, non-blue blood schools. Jay Wright maybe? Sean Miller? I was pretty high on Buzz Williams who just took the Virginia Tech job, although he had a disappointing final season at Marquette. What about up & comers? Shaka Smart or (gasp) Gregg Marshall?
Point is, anybody else is a crap shoot.
Now what I could see in terms of "pressure" should we have another early exit is the AD sitting down with Self and asking him what he needs to be more successful, and perhaps "recommend" that he make some changes in his coaching staff to better complement Self in some areas in which he is perhaps not as much an expert.
@MoonwalkMafia To say that injuries hurt draft stock is a hollow concept I think is incorrect. Sure Noel still went 6th after a knee injury, but there are countless other examples of it hurting players. Darrell Arthur? He fell to the bottom of the first round due to injury rumors about his kidney. More recently look at Mitch McGary from Michigan. He was projected as a lottery pick last year and now is on the first/second round bubble.
As for Joel specifically, there's already negative comparisons to Greg Oden. The NBA has a long history from Bill Walton to Andrew Bynum of injury prone big men. So in that regard, maybe Joel is safer than some, in that NBA GMs should know the increased risks. But say Joel falls from #1 to #6 (as Noel did), that's a difference of almost $2 million per year on the NBA rookie salary scale. I know it's easy for fans to sit behind their computers and act like that's chump change or it's an easy decision to leave that kind of money on the table for another year at our beloved KU, but to call the family ignorant for likely recognizing the risks is off-base.
Yeah I remember those articles and quotes, and at the time it had everybody really excited about the prospect of him staying. But as @JayHawkFanToo pointed out, those quotes are two months old and were pre-injury. Also, even though he talks about perhaps not being ready for the lifestyle, he never says he's staying.
My personal feeling about how all this will shake out is that Embiid probably wants to stay, but will get advice/pressure from his "camp" (family, advisors) to strike while the iron is hot and questions about his physical durability remain speculative. Should he come back next year and have an injury-plagued sophomore season, he would likely see his draft stock plummet.
I've seen people argue that Embiid will return because his family "doesn't need the money". They cite that his father is in the Cameroon army as proof that they are financial secure. While I don't doubt that he & his family are not in such financial straights as Ben McLemore & Cole Aldrich were, to me the whole notion is preposterous. It's as if since his family isn't living in a grass hut in Africa, we should assume money isn't a consideration here. There's a difference between not needing money and being so affluent that you can afford to risk a multi-million dollar opportunity.
Anyway, you ask how many times Embiid has to say he's not turning pro before anyone believes him. To that my answer would be once. If I hear it one time I'll believe him. But I need to hear THAT. Not hints at that, not statements about something else from which we might draw our own hopeful conclusions. I need to hear him say he's coming back for his sophomore season. Just once.
@HighEliteMajor Good counters.
We at least agree on Tharpe. 100% on Self. Even when everyone was on the Tharpe bandwagon last year I was openly voicing concerns about the prospect of him being the starting PG for the following 2 seasons. As you say, both Frankamp & Mason are better, ergo next season he really shouldn't even be in the rotation. But do we think it is likely Self abandons a returning senior starter next year?
@KUSTEVE I haven't once heard Embiid says he's not turning pro. All I've heard him say is he doesn't know, he's not worried about that decision right now, etc.
If you have some source quoting Embiid as saying he's not turning pro I'd love to see it.
@bskeet "Simple question". LOL. Hmmm...a few variables in play that prevent me from confidently answering this question.
First I guess that my interpretation of better would be first & foremost is the team capable of advancing further in the NCAA tournament, secondly would be a better overall record. Anyway, here are the big questions that I think would need to be answered, along with some purely speculative guesses at those questions:
Who returns and who comes in? Wiggins is gone, and my guess is so is Embiid, but that Selden returns. If Embiid leaves, does Turner commit? I'm guessing that yes, we land Turner.
How "out-of-the-box" ready are Alexander, Oubre, & Turner? Alexander will most likely be a force. Same with Turner, although perhaps to a slightly lesser extent than Alexander. I'm a little more clueless on Oubre.
How will players on the current roster progress? It should come as no surprise to anyone that to me the most important issue here is will Frankamp or Mason progress enough to show Self enough to unseat Tharpe for starting PG duties (and perhaps even back-up minutes). If Selden returns, does his offensive game become more polished & reliable? Will Greene do enough to play over Oubre? And will Ellis both bulk up enough to help his all around game and will his defense improve enough to warrant keeping him in the starting line-up over one of Turner or Alexander?
Who replaces Wiggins as the alpha/go-to guy? My guess is here with the insertion of Alexander Self is able to return his offense to his more favored high-low game, so some of the scoring we lose with Wiggins will shift to the post. However (and today's game notwithstanding), I think we will miss Wiggins' ability to create his own shot. Who on the perimeter can we hand the ball to next year and ask us to make a play? If Selden stays & progresses he is the most likely candidate, although I fail to see him progressing enough to be as effective as Wiggins has been this past year.
And lastly the wild card - injuries. Had Embiid not gotten injured I think this team had a chance to be a special team. Final Four material and maybe even national championship. Without him and against a tough match-up in Stanford we bowed out in the round of 32. That could strike any team.
I think that it would be hard to imagine our team doing worse than this year. In terms of overall record, we're likely to win more games next year even if we take a small step back in talent due simply to our schedule not being quite so "murderers row" and the league as a whole perhaps taking a small step back talent-wise. And every year, I have a hard time thinking that we won't have at least enough talent to at least make the sweet 16. So by those two criteria, I think we'll be a better team than this year's ended up being. However, I don't know that next year's team will have the same chance to be as special as this year's could have been with a healthy Embiid.
@HighEliteMajor Nothing? You think Self did nothing? I would agree with a number of things you said, but to say that Self was not making adjustments would be inaccurate.
Recalling past tournament losses, how many of us lamented not pressing until it was too late? Today we were pressing about mid-way through the second half. And it was effective.
While we may question Self on the Frankamp-Tharpe minute distribution (I certainly do), how many years have we lamented that Self had capable guys languishing on the bench all year and not preparing them for crunch-time minutes? As I applauded Self yesterday for, he did his best with a very deep bench to keep most everyone frosty and ready to step up when called upon. Frankamp played 18 minutes today. Should it have been more? I certainly think so, but to say that Self stuck wih his chosen personnel (as he has done in years past, i.e. Morningstar) would be inaccurate in my opinion.
As for three point shooting, I'm not sure what you would have had us do. You say Self had the ability to adjust it, plan for, and attack it head on. How? You complain about Tharpe's minutes, statistically he was our best 3-point shooter on the season. Frankamp was 4-7 today, but on the season he had been dismal, including Friday when he played enough minutes to be in the flow. Greene was spotty all year and has serious defensive deficiencies (in relationship to Wiggins & Selden, guys he would have been taking minutes from). I'm not sure what you wanted Self to do about this situation. To me he was limited by his personnel and their abilities.
Again, I agree with a lot of things you said - Tharpe (I think most of the readers know where I stand with him) and scheming. But to say he "failed KU nation" I think is a bit harsh. Wiggins shooting a measly 6 times, regardless of scheme, is unacceptable. Who could have seen that coming? This was the alpha dog right? The one we've seen put KU on his back offensively, and all of a sudden he reverts back to the Wiggins we saw early in the year who had to have Self bark at him to be aggressive? And yes missing shots happens in basketball, but Jamari Traylor shoots over 70% from the floor on the year and goes 1-8?
Anyway, you know I'm not a "Self is God" person, but I found myself blaming him less for the loss today than in some other year's past.
I don't want to hear how KU doesn't have to play a single seeded team now til elite 8
@JRyman I look at it like this - we played our asses off against plenty of single seeded teams all year long, we were due to have a break. By the same token, Shocker fans complaining about how difficult their road is, I look at it as the committee saying "you don't play anyone all year? Well you're going to have to play some tough teams now." Getting sick of hearing Charles Barkley talk about how the committee did WSU such a disservice with that draw. What did he want the committee to do, just clear their path?
And lest we forget the '08 championship team with their ridiculously cleared path to the Final Four, only to get there and be in the only Final Four with all #1 seeds still standing. It all balances out.
@jaybate 1.0 Apologies for not making an initial post beyond recognizing the inaccuracy in the Bank's quote. But trust that it was not a case of me seeing the quote, recognizing the error, and ceasing to read the rest of your post. In large part, I didn't respond futher because I didn't feel I had anything meaningful to contribute. I read the post, thought "well yeah, Jaybate hates OADs", nodded my head and moved on. However, upon re-reading I decided I'd offer up my thoughts, which may or may not be a meaningful contribution, but at the very least might offer a nice complement to your post (that one's for you @Parishawk!).
Let me say that I am a lot like you, in that I hate the OAD rule. I am on record as saying that ideally college basketball should adopt the college baseball rule, in that kids can go pro straight out of high school, but should they bypass that route they must stay in college a minimum of 3 seasons. I would love nothing more than to get to know all of our players for at least 3 seasons, and to see the resulting increased quality in the brand of basketball.
I wonder if Bill hates it too. My first thought is that he surely has to, as it means he has to work harder & more often on the recruiting trail as the roster turnover increases. However, it got me to thinking about how I have viewed Calipari & Kentucky, and to a large extent college football. In college football recruiting is almost a sport unto itself, particularly in SEC country. Kentucky, being in the SEC yet a non-football powerhouse, seemed to be a perfect fit for Cal when he came along as they could translate that level of gamesmanship to recruiting in the college basketball world. And all this got me to wondering if perhaps Bill, being the fiery competitor that he is, having lost to Calipari's OADs in '12, might be on some level engaging in such a "secondary sport" if you will, trying to win the recruiting battles just for winning's sake.
Anyway, that is moderately off-point. To get back to what I might have been trying to get at, let me recall a quote from your post in which you say "And then I realized just how grotesquely perverted the game had become by the OAD rule, even at Kansas." This quote was in response to seeing what you perceived as a KU playing not as a team but rather as a collection of their individual talents, and how apparently that is the fault of the OAD rule.
Here is where I will agree with you: this KU squad does play a whole less like a cohesive team than many teams of years past.
Where I disagree with you is that it is the fault of the OAD rule. We were faced with replacing all 5 starters this year, only one of which was lost because of the OAD rule (McLemore). The other 4 spots were vacated by seniors running out of eligibility. Even if BMac was forced to stay, how cohesive was this team going to get? If you replace an OAD Wiggins with a non-OAD Greene, would this look more like a team? Maybe I'm missing the point, but how would abandoning the OAD rule have helped this year's squad look & play more like a team, more like EKU did apparently?
You say that there was no team play, no stuff being run, and what was done was simply us out-talent-ing EKU. While that may be true to some extent, maybe even a large extent, there were two plays that I recall that were as classic Bill Self as it gets. Both back door plays, the first was a lob from Mason to Wiggins, the second of such which came in the half-court (the first came on a fast break, which isn't necessarily running "stuff" ). The second was also a dunk by Wiggins, in which he got his man going the wrong way, cut baseline and received a beautiful pass from Frankamp. Both of those plays illustrated to me at least a quasi-competence in their ability to run Self's offense.
In both the examples I provided, we see something that I think speaks more to this team's inability to look like a fully functioning team on the offensive end than does the OAD rule. We see that both the plays were started by our back-up point guards. The biggest problem our offense has in so much that it resembles "the finest food ingredients thrown together to make a fast food meal" is our junior point guard's inability to make it run smooth. Against EKU, he could barely maintain a dribble while approaching the three point line. And I know at this point it must seem like I am blaming Tharpe for all of this team's ills, but honestly I saw this problem coming a year ago and voiced my concerns over him being our starter for the next two seasons. To me, the problem was that glaring.
Now, having started my post after reading your comments about the Banks' quote distracting us, I have scrolled further down to see that much of my argument was made by @KUSTEVE, and that you have countered that with some explanation on the ripple effects of the OAD system. I don't think that you are correct in your recollection of us bringing in Naa. I know we brought in Traylor after going down to Florida to watch Deandre Daniels, and it was widely speculated that Traylor's signing was meant to entice Daniels to come, but I don't recall the same situation for Naa. I know we had recruited TRob from the Brewster academy, and that is probably how Naa got on the radar, but really I think it was more a case of Self missing on other players from other schools - Josiah Turner being the main one that springs to mind.
I guess all that is left to say is that I sincerely hope the new NBA commissioner changes the eligibility rules soon and we can get away from the OADs and a return to a higher brand of basketball.
Thanks to many for replying and keeping a healthy conversation on this topic.
Something that @HighEliteMajor mentioned and @REHawk perhaps inadvertently shed some light on - what's going on with Mason? As HEM said, Self has him on a short leash. Go back to the Big 12 tournament, Mason has played 4 minutes against Okie St. (an overtime game), 12 minutes against ISU, & then 9 minutes yesterday against Eastern Kentucky. On the season he averages 16 mpg, so he's seen his playing time cut. And we have Bill Self telling Connor before the game that he was going to use him. So while I am calling for a change and cut into Tharpe's minutes, has Connor perhaps surpassed Mason on the depth chart? Is Mason in the doghouse?
I honestly can't fathom why Mason would have fallen out of Self's good graces while Tharpe has remained in them (in so much as to retain his starting role and the benefit of the doubt), at least not any reason that we've seen on the court. Maybe in practice or something off the court, which would only be speculation.
Anyway, interesting to say the least.
Don't understand how he could regress after another year in the system and getting so many minutes
@FarSideHawk Well for starters, he has most likely always been this bad on defense. But when you have defensive stalwarts around you - Releford, Withey at the back end, etc. - it is less noticeable. A team full of seniors is more apt to help and cover up your mistakes.
Similarly, leadership is not needed or expected from a sophomore back-up point guard on a team full of seniors. He went from having no leadership responsibilities to being the most experienced guy on the court. He hasn't shown the ability to handle that responsibility. He has wilted under the pressure.
Lastly, while starting Connor might not solve our PG problems...didn't his presence do just that yesterday?
@wissoxfan83 beat me to it!
@jaybate 1.0 Just FYI, you do know the Ernie Banks quote was "let's play two" right?
So by now we've breathed a collective sigh of relief after escaping Eastern Kentucky. We're all still probably replaying the Traylor & Wiggins highlights in our heads. And most surprisingly, we're all smiling and shaking our heads at the performance of Connor Frankamp. Before getting into the meat of this let me just say kudos to coach Self for expanding his bench and continuing to give players like Frankamp & Greene minutes all year. They didn't get into every game, but they got into enough of them that they won't be overwhelmed if called upon this tournament.
Now if I may direct your attention to a quote from Eastern Kentucky forward Eric Stutz: "We went into the game knowing that we could turn their starting point guard over. That was our game plan." Look, I know the Colonels are a scrappy team full of pesky guards and their calling cards are raining 3s and creating turnovers, but let that quote sink in. 15 seed Eastern Kentucky from the Ohio Valley conference KNEW they would be able to turn over the junior starting point guard for number 2 seeded Kansas. What else do you really need to know? In classic Tharpe fashion, he turned it over on the second possession of the game, and generally looked uncomfortable all game long when trying to run the offense. In the second half, Self played him almost exclusively at the 2 with either Frankamp or Mason in the game with him.
If that wasn't enough to convince you, we were also witness to more below average defense from Naadir. Due to Eastern Kentucky's 4 guard line-up and the general good job we did switching it was at times difficult to determine whose man was scoring, but Glenn Cosey hit three treys in the game's first 5 minutes, and at least 2 of them were on Naadir. He was consistently a step behind his man, which led to help defense from his teammates being needed which in turn created quite a bit of offense for the Colonels. Perhaps another thing that made Naadir's defense standout as particular horrid was that Perry Ellis actually played pretty stout on that end of the floor, so the weak link wasn't a shared title between the two (as is often the case).
Again, these were guys from Eastern Kentucky. Not Kane or Staten or Smart beasting him. This wasn't him not being able to match-up with the elite guards in the country as some have suggested. He didn't look like he belonged on the same court as guys from the Ohio Valley conference.
So despite being very pleased with surviving & advancing, I still found myself scratching my head throughout the game and for a long time afterwards. Why did Mason play so sparingly? 9 minutes to Tharpe's 21? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that Self recognized Frankamp's value and played him as much as he did. But again, this was Eastern Kentucky. What happens when we play Syracuse or Florida down the road? Will he continue to stubbornly reinsert Tharpe in the game in hopes that his play will yield different results?
This is a team that can contend for a National Championship. I'm pretty confident we can get by Stanford. Then we will have Embiid back. Wiggins is surging at the right time. Almost all of the pieces are in place. But we need steady PG play. Self has two options that to me seem vastly more appealing. The time is now for the lion's share of the minutes to go to Mason & Frankamp. Is it risky? I suppose. Both Mason & Frankamp are freshman. Self would open himself up to criticism should one of them cost us down the road, whereas he is less apt to be second guessed if he stays the course with the upperclassman. That is the safe path. The bolder path gives us the better chance to play for the highest stakes.
I know we weren't in on him anymore, but JaQuan Lyle committed to Oregon. I was sorry to hear we weren't interested in him anymore, but I'm glad he's out of the Big 12. Didn't want that slight to come back & bite us down the road.
@HighEliteMajor I'm with slayr, in that I couldn't like this post enough. It is especially nice seeing it from you, considering I know that you were against the Wiggins experiment (not against Wiggins, but against bringing in any OAD at that position unless it bore the fruit of a national championship). Maybe that hasn't changed, but it's nice to see how you can separate that and appreciate the player.
@Crimsonorblue22 Thanks for the link. Good stuff
@approxinfinity Whatever you guys do is good with me. You & bskeet rock for this site!
@jaybate 1.0 Well, if you understand me, it is that your anecdotal info originally provided of players from ISU & OSU doesn't prove anything. Also, it is not for me to say what is a great or even good NBA 3 point shooter, just that Kobe over his career has shot 33.5% from beyond the arc. I'm really not going to do the research on average NBA shooting percentages for 2s, but my own personal opinion is that no, 33.5% is not great. I will also say that I don't think Wiggins will have any trouble shooting that percentage in the league, but we will see. After all, Ben McLemore, who I think we can all agree was a much better three point shooter than Wiggins in his lone season with KU, is shooting a lowly 31.4% in the league from 3.
I'm not really sure where or why you keep driving the bus to the Julian Wright comparison. I mean, yes they were both phenomenal 6'8" athletes. Julian Wright had a completely different skill set than Wiggins. Both players are NBA 3s, but the difference is Wiggins has the skill set to be one now, whereas Wright had the skill set of a very gifted post player, which is why he was a tweener, and as @konkeyDong has pointed out was never developed. When Julian beasted at KU, it was in the post. Time will tell, although I'm sure should Andrew have a successful rookie season, second season, etc. in the NBA and I bring this up, you'll drown me in a mountain of non-sensical anecdotes or qualifications on this performance or that performance. I mean really, all your "if you wipe away this performance, and this one, and this one..." reads much like the old "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?"
I'm trying to get an understanding of what your point is regarding the comparisons, but I think that it is that a team led by OADs Wiggins & Selden, in a vacuum with no other considerations given to the players surrounding them, no returning starters, strength of schedule, injuries, strength of the league, rule changes severely hampering perimeter defense, and before seeing how the remainder of this season plays out, that this KU team is not as good as '04, '08, or '12 and that is a referendum on Wiggins & Selden? Again, if I'm understanding this last bit of your post correctly. To that I would say, again without seeing how the NCAA tournament this year plays out, that no, this team is not as good as those teams. However, I don't view that as an indictment of Wiggins & Selden. After all, the three teams you mentioned returned some big time parts from a team that lost in the national title game the year before (the '04 team that returned Miles, Langford, & Simien among others), and from two teams that lost in the elite 8 the year before (the '08 team that returned everybody except the much maligned Julian Wright and the '12 team that returned Tyshawn, EJ, TRob, Releford, & Withey).
Let me just end this by saying that regardless of 3-point shooting, I have every confidence that Wiggins will have a successful NBA career. Not sure about Selden, but I hope he comes back because I don't think he's ready. And regardless of any future NBA success, I think that it speaks volumes that they led this team to another Big 12 title in a year that the league was as tough as it has ever been and that they did so by 2 games (many titles won during the streak have been shared), that they accomplished what they have so far while playing what has statistically been the most difficult schedule of any NCAA team over the past 20+ years, that they have done so while having to start from scratch with team chemistry, that they have done so in spite of playing alongside the worst PG during Bill Self's tenure, that they have played considerably better defense than the junior point guard or the sophomore McD 4. Kudos to Mr. Wiggins & Mr. Selden. Good luck in the league.
@konkeyDong I think it is a pretty difficult path for us. Given your re-phrase, I take that to mean if you put us as the 2 in any other region. In our region, if we draw the better seed in every match-up, our path is New Mexico, Syracuse, Florida. Pretty tough. I had told @Crimsonorblue22 yesterday that I really didn't want to have to go through Florida just to get to the Final 4, but that's what happened. I'm not too scared of Syracuse at the 3. I was more worried we'd draw Louisville or Michigan St., who ended up being 4s. I think in this regard, a couple of the 1 seeds (WSU in particular) might have a tougher path than we do. I think at the 7 we were fortunate not to draw Oregon, whom I consider the most difficult of the 7s.
My nightmare scenario is that we bow out before Embiid comes back and we're left to wonder from now until the end of time what would have happened if we just could have made it to the second weekend.
@jaybate 1.0 By continuing to reference lists of shooters as "anecdotal" I can only assume you mean to diminish them in so much as providing the data for the shooters on the list really doesn't prove my point (or disprove yours). Which is fine, as you are right, we can surely come up with lists of players that shot well their freshman seasons and got worse, or that stay the same, or that abandon being a perimeter shooter, etc. My only response to this would be, it wasn't "my anecdotal list of shooters". You provided the players, therefore it was your list. You included them to compare them to our current group of shooters. I know this because you used the word "compare". The obvious intent here was to cast a pall on our current players. When you singled out Wiggins & Selden for being predestined to flounder in the NBA because of their supposed weak 3-point shooting, I only used your list to illustrate that the players you were holding in so much higher regard did not have as much out of the box success as Wiggins & Selden are having. It was not meant to be indicative of predicting future success/improvement.
In reading your response to konkeyDong, I would agree the more apt comparison for Wiggins is not Lebron, but rather Kobe. But in the context of the 3-point conversation it should be noted that Kobe is not, and has never been, a great 3-point shooter. Great jump shooter? Absolutely. But he is a career 33.5% 3-point shooter. He has never shot it above 40% in a single season, his high being 38.3%.
Anyway, my point here is that I don't think anybody is expecting Wiggins (or even Selden) to have make or break NBA careers based on 3-point shooting, which is what you seemed to be inferring based on your "how do these guys expect to play in the NBA..." musing.
I do think it is within the realm of reason to wonder about Selden's NBA career, especially if he should decide he only needs one year of college. But again, I'm not basing that off of his 3-point shooting.
And finally, to answer your question, according to the Big 12 website KU is shooting 34.5% from beyond the arc this year. This is not statistically the worse shooting 3-point KU team under Self's tenure. During Self's first year, '03-'04, the team shot 33.5%. Now perhaps we are inclined to give Self a pass given that this was a team comprised of Roy Williams players. However, during our run to the national championship in the '11-'12 season, we shot an identical 34.5% from trey that season.
184-533 this season
222-643 '11-'12
@JayHawkFanToo Important to note that Colorado's season would likely have been much better (resulting in a higher seed) had Spencer Dinwiddie not gone down mid-way through their season.
And yeah, after hanging their hat all year on that St. Louis win, it sure doesn't look so great now!
@Crimsonorblue22 I hope they draw us. If we're still on the 2 line, we have to be one of the last 2s, so we're either going to be in there with Florida (who should be the overall #1 seed) or Wichita State (who will probably draw the second #1 seed), assuming the committee seeds using the S-curve. While I'm not trying to knock the Shockers, I don't like the prospect of us having to get by Florida just to reach the Final 4. So if we're to not end up in Florida's region, we'd almost certainly end up in the WSU's. If they don't draw us as a 2 I'd like to see them maybe have Louisville in their region, as a 2 or 3. Would be kind of neat to see the rematch from last year but with the roles reversed.
Aside from us, and understanding that I actually want them to lose, as maybe a 4 seed in their region I'd like them to get maybe an Iowa St. or Creighton (how funny would that be if they get knocked out by their former MVC rivals? LOL). For the 8/9 game some of the teams around that line that could give them a run would be Okie St or Oregon (also with some MVC ties with former Creighton coach Dana Altman now coaching the Ducks).
@jaybate 1.0 Well, Wiggins & Selden are only freshman. Take a player like Kane, who in 3 seasons at Marshall shot 31.8%, 25%, & 24.8% (that's progressing from freshman to junior seasons). Naz Long shot 27.8% last year as a freshman. Markel Brown shot 26.2%, 31.9%, 36.4% his first three years at OSU. I'm not even going to bother with Smart, who we know isn't a good jump shooter, or Stevie Clark, who had limited attempts before being kicked off the team. Even the best sharpshooter on your list - Phil Forte - shot 33.8% last year as a freshman.
So Wiggins & Selden are actually shooting better as freshman than everyone on your list.
Congrats to Danny & the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes on winning conference USA!
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2014/mar/15/danny-manning-tulsa-punch-ticket-ncaa-tournament/ ā
@drgnslayr So basically this thing about Tharpe has ate & ate at me. "What more proof does this guy want that he is a point guard?" I kept thinking to myself. Coupled with the vague "I remember reading..." argument I was confronted with, I set out to gather as much proof as I could that this guy is a point guard.
Then I found something that lends credence to your claim. Apparently, before attending Brewster, Tharpe attended St. Peter-Marian in Worcester beginning in 8th grade, and played 2 seasons there before transferring to the Brewster Academy. While at St. Peter-Marian he was more of a 2, out of necessity the article states (apparently they weren't very good and he had to score. The losing was what caused him to transfer). However, the article does state that as a 3 year starter he was the point guard for Brewster, including being a 2-time captain.
So while I still don't buy that his natural position is the 2, I will concede that he played the 2 for at least a time in his youth career. To me, Self did right in recruiting the PG position when he recruited Naadir. A 3 year starter in high school for one of the top prep schools in the country, being a team captain for 2 of those years, and leading your team to a national championship while playing the point guard...not sure how much more due diligence Self was supposed to do there. Obviously no, he hasn't been the second coming of Aaron Miles since becoming a Jayhawk. But my point is that doesn't mean he's playing out of position.
@drgnslayr Well again, where did you read that they were 2s? I mean, I provided the info about EJ moving there his senior year. Here is the link to Tharpe's article:
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2010/nov/15/kansas-officially-announces-signing-naadir-tharpe/ ā
The article itself lists him as a point guard, as does a quote by Bill Self, in which he compares Tharpe to Aaron Miles. It also says that during Tharpe's junior season at Brewster they won the prep national championship. No one here sat down and talked to Naadir, but if a point guard can win a national championship it's not a leap to assume he has some leadership skills.
Here's the link to the Taylor article:
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2008/apr/29/tyshawn_taylor_commits_ku/ ā
Pretty much the same stuff as the Tharpe article. Senior point guard from St. Anthony. Led them to an undefeated season and high school national championship his senior year. Defines himself as a winner.
And here's a couple of links for EJ. The first is of his signing. The second is after he arrived on campus the summer before his freshman season:
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2008/nov/17/elijah_johnson_officially_signs_ku/ ā
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2009/jun/15/ku-hoops-players-welcome-johnson/ ā
Between the two articles you get stuff like "his passing is the strongest point of his game" and āIām just ready to help the team out, being more so a point guard and being able to make open shots and playing defense 24-7."
I share a lot of your frustrations with our PG play the last two seasons. My point is, Self has recruited point guards that he felt would succeed. It's not an exact science, and maybe the issue is what we're doing with them once they get here, rather than if they have the chops to be elite level D-1 PGs out of high school. I can entertain the idea that maybe we need a "guard specialist" coach (like Danny was with the bigs).
EJ was a 2. Heck... TT was a 2, too. Naadir is a 2
@drgnslayr People made that rationalization for EJ all last year, for TT at times, first I'm hearing of it from Naadir. I guess my question is, what makes you think they were/are 2s? ESPN recruiting listed all 3 as PGs (rivals only lists "G, F, C" ). I looked up all three players in articles from the kusports archives. When they committed, all indicated they were PGs (in EJs case, that he was moved there his senior year of high school). I just think that is a cop out to say they are playing out of position, when they all played the position in high school and they are recruited as such. Because they struggle they are more suited for the 2?
As for not recruiting top notch PGs...Josh Selby? We were also in on Tyus Jones this year.
didn't he shoot a 3 the very first time down?
@Crimsonorblue22 I thought so too, but they must have decided his foot was on the line. A look in the play-by-play lists that possession as "Naadir Tharpe missed jumper"
how many teams could have stopped ISU tonight?
@Crimsonorblue22 Interesting question. Answering it depends on how much credit you give them versus how much blame do you put on our defense. I think it's probably a mixture of both, them playing better than they typically do while us playing worse than we typically do.
I guess just thinking about it, they would have beat most teams tonight, but they were not unbeatable. We could have beaten them, even without Embiid.
@drgnslayr Was just criticizing the lack of PG leadership (and the weave) on another thread. At this point...it is what it is. You can often tell early what kind of game Tharpe is going to have. Most times he has a careless turnover or two in the first handful of possessions. Tonight he came down on the first possession and chucked up a shot just inside the arc before we ever got into any offense or rebounding position. I knew there he wasn't plugged in.
The perimeter weave was eerily similar to the way I remember our offense looking often in '09. It was weave and wait for Sherron to find an opening to his liking and drive it. Tonight, substitute Wiggins for Sherron. The only other discernible offense was getting the ball to Perry (or Jamari to a lesser extent) on the high blocks and having them drive it.
I was surprised looking at the box score that Tharpe was credited with 9 assists. Must have been of the "I was the last guy to touch the ball on the 3 man weave before Wiggins drove it and scored" kind of assists. He was a complete non-entity out there. With Embiid out, I was hoping that he would show some leadership, but I've seen none. I'm actually disappointed that Self played Tharpe so many minutes and Mason so sparingly during the past 2 games.
Still, not completely devastated by the loss. A lot of things had to come together for ISU to win: Embiid injured, Wiggins having an off shooting night, Selden having an off night, Niang being unstoppable, their team staying hot from 3 all game.
@DinarHawk Amen to that. Aside from Oakville (Tony Bandle I think is his name), all the intelligent talent migrated here.
@JRyman I'm going to say Ellis. He sure looked to be dialed in yesterday but got derailed by foul trouble. ISU doesn't really have any physical bigs to push him around and knock him off his game, so I'm predicting he goes for 20 & 10.
@bskeet I loved how Fraschilla pointed out that having talked to officials, they're really onto Smart's game (flopping), and how that may be hurting him more than helping as he is now "the boy who cried wolf", wherein when he is actually fouled he isn't getting the benefit of the doubt anymore. Say what you will about officials, but they don't like getting made to look foolish, and Smart has spent the better part of this year selling his bullshit. And now, during the most important time of year, it has finally backfired and blown up in his face.
@drgnslayr Hmm. Well, I honestly can't profess to being an expert on the subject. Perhaps I'm guilty of perception, and like many others can recall @Jaybate 1.0 commenting on Tharpe his freshman year and his "little legs". And watching him get burned repeatedly, I just chalked it up to the little legs.
I don't doubt Tharpe has speed. I don't know that he has quickness, especially in his reaction time.
@Crimsonorblue22 Well I think most players are likely to play better at home. Just the overall familiarity of everything from the locker room to the shooting backgrounds.
I remember the re-match against Texas as well. Isaiah Taylor had a horrible game. But again, I don't know how much of that was Tharpe, and how much of it was Taylor just being off his game.
Against Jordan Woodard of OU, I don't remember much about the game from Tharpe's standpoint on the defensive end. A quick check of the box score shows Woodard had 10 pts on 4-7 shooting, 1-2 from trey, with 6 assists and 1 turnover. A quick check of the season stats shows Woodard averages 10.3 ppg, while averaging 4.6 assists and 2.1 turnovers. So while it is true Woodard didn't "go off", statistics show Tharpe did little but hold him to his average amount of points, while allowing a slight uptick in assists and forcing 1 fewer turnover.
In any case, Taylor & Woodard are hardly two of the better PGs in the league, at least at this point in their careers. Taking Tharpe out, there are 9 other starting PGs in the Big 12. Staten, Kane, Smart are the elite. I'd also probably rank Kenny Cherry of Baylor & Kyan Anderson of TCU ahead of Taylor & Woodard as well. So they're in the bottom 4 of competition Tharpe faces in league play.
@Crimsonorblue22 Me too Crimson. Me too.
Here's the thing: Tharpe will most likely never be appreciably better on the defensive end. Quick, athletic, long guards will most likely always give him problems. If they don't, it's more likely a function of that player being off their game than it is Tharpe shutting them down. There are things he can do to marginally improve, but physically he wasn't as blessed as others.
Where he can improve is in his effort, leadership, and mental approach. Limit the turnovers. Get guys the ball in a position to score. Show some hustle. One of the things that stands out to me this year is the speculation as to when we would see Wiggins dive for a ball on the floor. Well that has happened. What I can't seem to recall is an instance where Tharpe has done so. Maybe that's a mental block on my part and an unfair assessment, but correct me if I'm wrong! More than anything he needs to take some pride in the fact that this is HIS team. He is the starting PG for the Kansas Jayhawks, and that is awesome! I mean, that is kid-in-the-driveway-pretending-to-be-you kind of awesome! Let that sink in, and raise to the level of responsibility that the role entails.
I think Tharpe has it in him. I hope we see it today.
@nuleafjhawk Well...he didn't play great otherwise in that game. 2-8 and 6 TOs. LOL
I hear you, but he's come out and played well after some of Self's previous "wake-up calls" (following the 2 games Mason started, after he was benched late in the Texas game).
I'll go out on a limb here and predict Tharpe to have a good game today. I think if nothing else, he rallies the team and shows some leadership.
@nuleafjhawk In the last meeting Tharpe drew the assignment of guarding Forte and actually did a very good job. Forte went 1-6 from the field, 0-4 from trey. This is actually a good match-up for Tharpe, as he doesn't have to worry about getting blown by, he just has to guard against the jumper and fight through screens to do it.
@JRyman Good post
Margin of KU victory - under 7.5
Points by Wiggins - under 21.5
Fouls by Black - over 3.5
Turnovers by Tharpe - over 4.5
Assists by Wiggins - over 2.5
Timeouts used by KU - over 3.5
Flops by Marcus Smart - under 5.5
Looks of bewilderment by Travis Ford shown on TV - under 9.5 (only because ESPN will not show that many, I'm sure he'll have way more off-camera)
The number of times that it is mentioned that Embiid will not be playing - LOL...well let's just say it's going to be a lot :)
@Crimsonorblue22 Yeah, he's classless, and a liar.
If any KU fans attending the game at the Sprint Center could organize a massive flop in the stands when Smart is introduced like ISU did last weekend, that would be great. It's a shame that happened so late in the season, and most likely so late in Smart's college career. It would be awesome if that was the M.O. that happened every time he walked onto an opponent's home court.
As far as the game goes, if I were Bill Self I would show the tape of Kevin Young putting Smart on the ground last year, and tell them they have to go out and punch this team in the mouth. Gawd I hope they play with a chip on their shoulders tomorrow and absolutely bury those chumps!
I'm sitting here contemplating the ideas I threw out to start this thread and one thing I would say is that if it is possible to get by the first weekend with a traditional Self team & strategy -- hi low offense, 2 bigs 3 perimeter line-up -- then we should try to stay the course until the sweet 16. The reason for this is to maintain the element of surprise as for as long as possible. If you tip your hand on the first or second game of the tournament, your next opponent now has multiple days to prepare. If we could get to the sweet 16 and unleash a completely different look there, were we to advance our elite 8 opponent would only have the one day in between to prepare. And if it works in that game, we're in the Final 4 and everything is gravy.
@drgnslayr It was actually the '11 season that TRob's mom passed. The Morris Twins were still on that team.
Regardless, wherever we pull the karma from, I'll take it!
@JayHawkFanToo Just to be clear, I'm not down on Tarik. I think he is more than capable of turning in a good performance or two. I just don't think we can hope to get those kind of performances out of him consistently.
Loved the Graves performance against the 'cuse.