Nick Collison is ALL Jayhawk!!!!
He is a Williams player that would have thrived under Self also.
Collison is a standing ovation kind of player.
jaybate 1.0
10346 posts
Damn good take on this momentous eve.
Rock Chalk!!!
WESTMORLAND: O that we now had here
But one ten thousand of those men in England
That do no work to-day!
KING: What's he that wishes so?
My cousin, Westmorland? No, my fair cousin;
If we are mark'd to die, we are enough
To do our country loss; and if to live,
The fewer men, the greater share of honour.
God's will! I pray thee, wish not one man more.
By Jove, I am not covetous for gold,
Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost;
It yearns me not if men my garments wear;
Such outward things dwell not in my desires.
But if it be a sin to covet honour,
I am the most offending soul alive.
No, faith, my coz, wish not a man from England.
God's peace! I would not lose so great an honour
As one man more methinks would share from me
For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more!
Rather proclaim it, Westmorland, through my host,
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This day is call'd the feast of Crispian.
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say "To-morrow is Saint Crispian."
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say "These wounds I had on Crispin's day."
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household wordsâ
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucesterâ
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèdâ
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
Only Zenger could fire a coach that becomes a Final Four coach at a mid major.
Zenger is snake bitten, but he never surrenders.
Zenger just lowers a shoulder and keeps on going.
Like it or not, Zenger is a part of who we are in this tournament.
Shoot us in one foot, and we hop on the good foot.
Zenger has been through more adversity than the rest of the team combined and he just keeps coming.
Nothing stops us.
We all just keep coming.
Bridges outweighs Vick by 40 pounds and has 2 inches on him, maybe three.
Spellman is a true 4. He's got 40 pounds and 2 inches on Svi, a converted point guard.
They've got 6 three point shooters, we've got four if you count Garrett.
They go 8-9 deep.
We go 7 against a really good team.
They have all the classic pieces.
We've got duct tape and bailing wire.
They've got Nike.
We've got adidas.
They've got the refs.
We've got the shaft .
They've got the Pope and the College of Cardinals.
We've got Wayne Simien.
They've got the entire Fake Media.
We've got Holly.
But we've got the FIND-A-WAY-BOYS AND THE GREATEST COACH OF HIS GENERATION.
Our guys don't even really come together until its hopeless.
Our guys don't just eat adversity for breakfast, they pack it in MREs and eat hardy amidst dissaters and obstacles the would reduce Ernest Shackleton and Sir Edmund Hillary to dialing 911.
Our guys are the guys the United States Marine Corp are cheering for.
Our guys are the guys that go ashore and find a way when they get there.
If Vick and Svi have to, they will reduce this to hand to hand combat.
I have seen them in Morgantown, when there was no way. They won.
I have seen them in Texas Tech, when there was no way. They won.
I have seen them win three in three when there was no way. They won.
I have seen them when Bagley was certain to eat Svi alive and the refs tried to give Duke the game until even the refs got sick of Duke. They won.
These guys are going ashore tomorrow.
They are sharpening their Ka-Bars.
They are packing extra ammo.
They are meeting the enemy in what will soon be known as the Battle of the San Antonio River.
They have been through this many times.
Nova has never been through it this season.
This is our kind of combat.
See you on the other side.
KUSTEVE said:
Man, now that is BEAUTIFUL. A whole bunch of Dook fans are walking around with Malik Newman t-shirts.
PHOF
BucknellJayhawk3 said:
Did you know that Jay is older than Self by a year?! That blew my mind; only because we know Self has the high ground. I thought the clash was between a wise old man in Self and less old wise man Jay. I should have known given that I'm a Bucknell grad...
So Jay's playing in this Big East pseudo power conference; I imagine that irks him a little. Think he'll ever leave Nova?
Jay was a .560 coach for many, many, MANY years before Cal lost the blessings of BIG SHOE and created an opening for another trial. I will give Jay this much. He did better than the other coaches that appeared to be getting trial stacks coaching in Power Conferences in the SEC and PAC 12. And he appears to have been smart enough to recognize the entertainment value of a stack in the EST!!!
wissox said:
Jay owns a two game winning streak against Bill. I wouldn't call the Big East a mid major conference.
But THE BIG EST IS a mid major conference, though, since Syrexcuse and Louisville went to the ACC and UCONN disappeared.
And of course Jay Wright Shoes only started his whopping aborted three conference title run, after they left.
And wins by Nike EST teams over adidas CST teams in the apparent Carney of Entertainment Values apparently should not be counted as wins with a straight face!
Again, It appears Jay Wright Shoes is just another in a long line of Nike coaches (e.g., Miller, Calipari, Konsonants) that can win with a medium stack, or back into a title, when non Nike CST teams are on track to drag down viewer ratings and betting by being in the FF, right?
Entertainment Values: Theyâre NCAA-tastic!!!
P.S.: Duke was so incompetent they couldn't win with refs on their side 99 percent of the time.
I hope Duke gets to make a t-shirt like that one every season for the rest of eternity.
I love it when they expose themselves for what everyone already knows them to be.
Live with it, Dukies.
There are a lot of persons laboring under a mistaken notion that Jay Wright should be mentioned in the same breath as Bill Self regarding basketball coaching ability.
The cool aid is very strong these days--in politics AND sports.
The Deep State is apparently spiking everyone's water coolers to try to keep from losing too much control.
I am not qualified to give you the political antidote, but as a long time fan of college basketball I am willing to give you a bolus of 90 proof Old Spellbreaker about Jay Wrong and speak truth to the water cooler spikers.
Here is the difference between Wright and Self this season.
Wright has a medium stack of the kind select Nike coaches appear to get.
Self is doing it with mostly with 4 stars he coached up.
Wright started with a team with ALL the classic pieces of a power house including 6 players that shoot >39% from trey.
Self started with four combos, including one combo converted to a 4, a big still new to the game coming off an operation that couldn't make a free throw, Mitch Lightfoot for a backup, and an OAD that never started a regular season game.
Wright managed to lose four games with a team that should have gone undefeated and ended his own modest 3-conference title streak in a mid-major conference by finishing second.
Self lost his OAD, brought in a high school senior at mid season and somehow with no depth miraculously won his 14th consecutive title in a Power Conference.
Wright was given an unearned 1 seed in a marshmellow joke of a regional.
Self was given a deserved 1 seed in the toughest regional in the tournament.
Wright has made it to the Elite Eight for the fourth time and the Final Four for the second time.
Self has made it to the Elite Eight for the 9th time (at three different programs no less), and the Final Four for the third time.
Wright's overall record is .684.
Self's overall record is .766.
Wright's record at mid major Villanova in a mid major conference is .718.
Self's record at elite major KU in a Power Conference is .825.
In short, there is NO comparison.
None. Zero. Zip.
Self is up here.
Wright is down here.
Jay's team has the right shoes; that's all.
Bill's team does not.
Without the right shoes, Jay Wright would not even be .500 this season. No one would know Jay Wright's name without the right shoes and most anyone that knows anything about basketball coaching knows it. Wright is Sean Miller without the scandal.
In Jay's early days he took Hofstra to a first round loss in the NCAA.
In Bill's early days he took Tulsa to an Elite Eight.
Jay has never coached in a Power Conference.
Bill has coached in two.
Stop with the cool aid.
Beer are on me.
Wright does what I have always believed in doing: 3/4 press and alternate matchup zone with M2M. And within the matchup alternate between 1-3-1 and 2-3.
I am chagrined he has beaten Self to it.
Man this is going to be exciting to see these two matching wits.
Go, Bill, go!!!!!!
Looks like Bill is wearing his Bob Huggins top!!!
Yes, you are on the right track. I mean I just finished another post, where I finally went to the Nova web site and sized up their team and the matchup and they are just very imposing. I likened them to our Morri team that Shaka beat, only we are not meeting them on one days rest after playing a Princeton team, as Shaka met our team with.
Frankly, I'm now less worried about them beating us outside, than inside.
Much as I like Vick, Vick vs. Bridges is a nightmare match up.
Svi vs. Spellman could turn into a nightmare matchup with out a lot of help.
A lot of what we do will depend on what Jay does, of course.
If Jay decides to use size, strength, numbers and refs to overpower us and beat us down out of the blocks, I think we have to switch a lot between zone and M2M and between different zones to try to turn it into a 20 minute game, instead of a 40 minute game.
We need to zone press some to force them to start farther out.
But Self doesn't do these sorts of things much.
He prefers to do subtle things with the M2M, as he did a did against Duke.
I would expect some brief and intermittent stretches of lane jumping defense, too.
I just think he has to disrupt quite a bit the first half to even make it to the second half with his team not overwhelmed and fouled up.
I don't think KU can afford to let Bridges work on Vick, or Spellman to work on Svi, in ways that allow Bridges and Spellman to overpower Vick and Svi, or kick out for treys; that would be the death of us.
Hence, in M2M, we have to deny Bridges and Spellman the ball inside, and trap Bridges and Spellman from unexpected angles, and be prepared to use backside wings to run to contain Paschal long enough for our center to get back to Paschal. This exposes us to cross court passes to wide open dead eye trey shooters, but that seems preferable to letting Bridges and Spellman run wild.
With 6 trey shooters making 39% or higher from trey, its kind of a whack a mole game playing Nova.
But the key thing to remember IMHO, is that Nova has not played anyone that really guards as well as we do in a team defensive scheme; that was what Duke experienced, also. Nova has built its shooting percentages against outside defenders that don't contend every trey and don't get a hand in the face every shot. Nova's trey shooters also aren't used to having to chase as many trey shooters as we have all over the court on defense. Their legs will tire same as ours will, since we also haven't faced chasing so many trey shooters. And the DOME EFFECT will rear sooner or later, along with the tired shooting legs. Thus, the guttiest defenders that can find ways to help to minimize their vulnerabilities in MUA are most likely to win this game, despite each team's gaudy three point shooting stats.
I never bet against Self Defense in defensive matchups.
But the last time, Jay put it to us pretty good with the refs on his side.
We just have to hope Self has one more defensive rabbit in his hat we don't know about.
The Headline to this post is FAKE NEWs in honor of this being the year of Fake News.
But enough faking and now some serious analyzing.
The Bad News: Nova has more length, brawn, 3pt shooters and depth.
The Good News: Force concentration on point of attack is the counter.
We have to chip away at this pyramid and not be tempted to overturn it.
Nova is slightly longer than KU at 1 and 2, then longer and much brawnier at the 3, then longer and much brawnier at the 4, and then shorter but brawny at the 5.
Help defense is the order of the day.
Choosing where and when we help is just as important as it was against Duke, maybe more so.
Nova makes you pay for helping because of all of all 6 of their guys that shoot >39% from trey.
Everyone has to brace for the fact that we are going to be giving up some open look treys as we try to help. There is no other way. We have to concentrate our defenses and help in the high percentage shooting spots and leave them the low percentage spots. If they can beat us from the low percentage spots then they are will beat us. But it is not likely that they can.
The Nova guys that will most determine our chances, i.e., that will be toughest for us to contain, are:
3 Bridges. 6-7 210
4 Spellman 6-10 245
5 Paschal 6-9 255
Of these three, Bridges and Spellman pose the two biggest problems.
If the refs let them play and give Nova the favorable whistle, Nova could kick our asses badly inside and out.
This Nova team has the kind of size and outside shooting bigs and 8-9 man depth that our team with the Morri had.
How did Shaka beat our Morri team?
Simple.
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Shaka caught us on one day of rest after having previously over guarded a Princeton team. We had a depleted energy budget and he exploited it.
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His starters were in super condition, and he spaced the offense way out and ran exceptionally long cuts that forced our big guys to chase their players.
Alas, it does not seem likely that KU can run the legs off Nova, since Nova is on a weeks rest. The only team that would benefit from us running them would be Nova's opponent in the Finals.
We do have to squirt on them intermittently though. Speed and mobility are out edge. Strength and muscle are there edge. We both shoot the rock well.
As I have noted in another thread, the keys to KU having a chance to win would seem to lie with:
a.) fouling up one of their three point shooters; and
b.) forcing their trey shooters into shooting from 3pt spots on the floor most adversely effected by DOME EFFECT;
c.) Using a lot of 3/4 court pressing defense to force Nova to set up farther out and so take its treys from farther out; and
d.) concentrating our forces on a particular Nova player to foul him up.
Frankly, Nova, like Duke, can stay in a trough game.
KU probably can't fall below 35% and win unless Nova's shooting goes completely in the tank, as Duke's did.
Nova should just play smash mouth with us, whenever they can.
But the counter to smash mouth is high mobility aimed at concentrated point of attack on whatever player, or players we can foul up.
Nova's bigs basically have fattened their trey numbers on little bigs. They aren't going to shoot that well from trey against our three bigs--even against Svi. Svi is 6-8 and can get up.
If Nova is smart, they will attack inside with their size and try to reduce us to Silvio and Mitch ASAP.
If we are smart, we will junk zone early to protect Doke for the second half and be willing to go in 5-7 down at half time.
We will overplay their guards and encourage their bigs to float out and take the treys.
We need to squirt every chance we get, but then pull up and run the stuff.
The match ups that concern me most are:
a.) Vick vs Bridges where he gives up 2 inches and 4 pounds;
b.) Svi vs. Spellman, where he gives up 2 inches and 30 pounds.
Vick vs Bridges can be dealt with some by rotating Marcus Garrett for more size to cut down Bridges scoring, but its doubtful Garrett can score much on him either.
Svi vs. Spellman is a hairy challenge for Svi. Part of the way Svi has to beat Spellman is by attacking Spellman on offense and getting him fouled up. Spellman is going to back him down of offense and muscle him. I am hopeful that Self has been working Silvio and Doke together a little, so we can run just enough 3-2 hi-lo to keep Spellman and the other guy a little frustrated at times.
But bottom line, this is a HUGE challenge for the find-a-way boys.
Frankly, even doing the things I have outlined, I still think it is going to take some Self genius on top of everything mentioned to pull this off.
And if the find-a-way boys have a trough game, I fear we all are going to have to eat some more Jay Wright crow for another year.
Rock Chalk!
Great point about LB.
I hope he talks to Eddie, too.
And Janks. I always thought Janks and Bill were very creative together.
I always hope Self gets a set of "suggested plans for attack" from LB, Eddie, and Janks.
He probably doesn't, but what a great kitchen cabinet they comprise.
I might even call Doc Sadler about defending 5 trey ballers; that is to me the unique defensive issue, and one noted by Self already. Regarding Doc, he was kind of a goof ball that probably didn't mesh will with Bill in some ways, but I always thought he brought some additional defensive insight (more flexibility) to Self that season he was with KU.
I also wouldn't hesitate to call Rick Pitino about defense. I have a hunch Rick would like to get even with someone for what has been done to him for speaking out about agents and agent runners that one time and I always felt there was not much love lost between Rick and Jay Wrong.
Containing 5 three point shooters is kind of unprecedented and a really interesting strategic/tactical problem to address. There are many approaches one could take, because it is such a unique problem, historically speaking. Not many approaches can be ruled out as possible counters to it.
All coaches and teams become prisoners of their successful experience.
Nova has grown used to winning with 5 trey ballers; this presents some possible counters.
One counter is to simply focus on early foul-up of just one of their trey ballers. If Nova were to have to play without just one, they would not be themselves at all.
Another is to identify which if any of their trey ballers are largely spot shooters and then deny those players their spots; that has nearly the same effect as denying them one of their shooters with foul up.
Another is simply to focus on pushing their perimeter out 2-3 feet farther out than they like and let the added distance reduce their 3pt% be cut about 5-10%; this is much tougher to accomplish and leads to more blow-by drives and that exposes our bigs to more fouling. It also requires playing quite a bit of three quarter court zone press, preferably a 2-2-1 to force them to start their offense farther out so the treys come farther out.
I think Mitch and Silvio are going to play a lot today, because I think our bigs are going to have to chase 25- feet out quite a bit of the time.
The best zone to play for stopping the outside shot is to morph 1-3-1 matchup (MSU's old matchup zone it played with Magic and that Coach K has dusted off) and 2-3 stretch where they outside base line guys deny the corner three that so many practice and take, and hope the 2 outfront guys can stretch and hustle. But you have to switch between these two or the opponent just sets up and takes the trey out front against the 2-3, or out of the corner against the 1-3-1.
I have this idea of a 4-1 match up zone, where the 4 outside guys form an umbrella zone and Doke/Silvio play a one man zone inside. The idea is that if they send their post out to trey shoot, the umbrella zone crowds in and helps where ever the opposing post man goes to on the perimeter and we take our chances on them getting a few open shots, while we get ALL the rebounds. This is a hedge between their making a few more wide open shots and us denying them all second shots. I haven't looked at Nova's second shot numbers, so I don't know if they rely heavily on second shots or not.
Another interesting angle to to take that could be done with KU's preferred M2M without Jay Wrong and Nova really realizing it would be to do research on which 3 point spots on the floor are subject to the most DOME EFFECT; i.e., where on the floor outside the three point stripe is the distortion of the dome most and least statistically significant in altering 3pt shooting percentage, and then use our defenders to funnel Nova's trey shots into the lowest percentage 3point shots in a dome. So far, I have never read that any statisticians have looked into and established this, but I am pretty confident that DOME EFFECT would vary in magnitude of effect around the floor. This would be a terrific and hard for Jay to identify defensive technique, if Jay has not already looked into this localization of DOME EFFECT himself yet. And even if he has, KU's M2M should exploit this effect. And now that I am thinking about it, Match-Up Zones could EASILY be designed to guard the high percentage zones beyond the trey stripe and to leave relatively unguarded the low percentage zones outside, maybe even with only 4 perimeter defenders and leaving Doke protecting the rim inside and NOT chasing. Oooh, I like this ALOT!! Sucker Nova into shooting a lot of treys from undefended zone regions outside with their big man floating outside into low percentage areas triggered by DOME EFFECT and use our 4 men on the perimeter to guard the regions which least DOME EFFECt.
And one could keep going with this.
Bottom line 5 trey shooters offers Nova a lot of ways to play, if these guys are canning the trey that night in a big Dome.
But we have a lot of ways to deal with it, too.
Gosh, I love this game. It is so much more interesting than chess and global thermonuclear war!!!!
Playing any kind of conventional zone against a team with 5 three point shooters would be very, very risky.
But I agree with you that it would help to force Nova into some of the recognition problems we faced against Duke with a mix of morphing zones and M2M.
But I can never tell with Self. I ALWAYS think switching in and out of zones to trigger recognition issues makes sense, but he only rarely resorts to it, and I have never been able to figure out exactly WHY he decides to resort to it. Sometimes, I think he is just very pragmatic. It appears he goes into every game intending to play M2M the entire game and only switches to a zone when it isn't working. And even then Self prefers wonky zones. He was famous for a few years for revitalizing the 3-2 junk zone. And this season, mid season he tried a lite version of Coach K's morphing zone.
God only knows what he has been saving up for a rainy day this time.
But I suspect we will see it against Nova.
Self's small N history has been to leave it all on the floor (use the impressive wrinkles) in the Semis and "figure out" a way to win in the Finals.
Kcmatt7 said:
My hope is that we school Paschall a couple of times on the Perimeter and they have to go small with 4 guards to matchup defensively.
Won't it be interesting to see whether Self plays it their way, or tries to force them into a 4 guard perimeter?
Self's tendency over the years has been to start out trying to play it anyway they want and so try to beat them at their own game. Doing so is VERY demoralizing to an opponent. If it works, the opposing coach has to default into something they are not as good at, while feeling demoralized, and KU then usually walks away and leaves them.
And if playing it their way doesn't work, then Self gets to fall back into playing it our strongest way, and that usually stems the tide, until Self can come up with something specially tailored in the moment for the second half.
Self is a wascally wabbit, as Elmer Fudd used to say.
Blown said:
The same way he did in 2016. Beat our offensive players to their spots. Cut off handoffs. Block the passing lanes.
This will be one of those games that Self should revisit his previous March Carney Loss.
You are really onto something here with them beating our players to spots and denying handoffs.
Did you notice that against Duke KU almost never ran the weave. I suppose that was related to Duke playing predominantly zone defense, but...
What I wanted to call your attention to, though, is that KU maybe no longer needs to run the weave to be effective. Put another way, maybe Self has addressed the problem you have identified. Maybe he has decided to take what they give us and not force the weave--just take it if it is not being denied.
You point really fascinates me.
Self SHOULD have an alternative to weaving, if teams decide to deny the weave.
I guess we are going to find out, because it makes sense that Way Wrong, er, Jay Wright, would try denying the weave again.
If Coach Self were NOT prepared for Wright denying the weave, then you get to give Coach Self a well deserved "See, I told you so."
Rock Chalk!
The MOM FACTOR is real.
KENPOM needs to start building it into his models.
The gamblers need to account for it, too.
Every game assessment should take it into account.
How many mothers of rotation guys will be there?
Any team with MUA in mothers has to be given a sharp edge.
Seriously.
Devonte's mother is good for about 10 points more per game from DG and 4 rpgs more, as well. I think DG makes fewer TOs also.
I am starting to call it the LUV/EAR EFFECT.
These mothers' love puts them in that zone of not to little and not too much concentration (i.e., a sense of security I suppose), and these mothers' willingness to drag them to their rooms for dogging it gets them on an edge.
I think fathers often have a similar effect, also, but currently our culture, especially our African American subculture, has been so devastated by the insidious combination of job outsourcing and drug dumping and marijuana arrests (apparently largely done to keep the private prisons occupancy rates up, and keep the social unrest from hollow-out economics down) that one parent families are the new normal. So: we notice it as THE MOM FACTOR presently, but we can hope and pray that over time all Americans begin to understand that they have been had by the private oligarchy's vicious divide and conquer identity politics and begin to pull together again as one group--AMERICANS--and we get the fathers and mothers back together raising their kids and amping them for games, etc.
End the divide conquer!!
Restore the family NOW!
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Target either Devonte, or Malik, for fouling up.
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Drive on one early and often.
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Force one to switch, then immediately drive on the target. Switch-and-drive spreads any charging fouls around to reduce the risk of this driving strategy.
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Repeat.
The idea is to take away one of KUâs 2 difference makers for the last 5 minutes; then overplay and help on the remaining one.
The thread is now open for evil ideas, so We can then think of counters.
@HighEliteMajor Agreed that adding Silvio to Doke and Mitch has been a difference maker over last season. Two draft choice types plus a guy that can fill on foul up, fast tempo games to let Doke and Silvio play hard exemplifies how interdependent perimeter and interior remain in the small ball era.
One reason I am stoked to play Jay and his Wrongcats is that Mitch gives us the flexibility to downsize, if the Wrongcats mobility troubles Doke, or Silvio.
In a 4-1 set, we are.solid and experienced albeit with little depth outside, but we now have enough post men that can guard to let our perimeter guys overplay some and not have to risk fouling on the get-byâs. The bigs can handle that now.
Dang, the rafters are getting crowded up their with Self's guys.
Isn't first string All America one of the triggers for jersey hanging?
Nova will blow us out, if they have a good shooting night and we don't. Self said they have five trey shooters, where as we have 4 and a big guy committee.
If we both shoot the rock well, then I would expect our bigs to tip the balance in our favor.
But five trey ballers burying three pointers for 40 minutes is too much to overcome on an off shooting night.
And we will make fast work of them if they are cold.
Accurately predicting who can make in the L and who cannot is not a strength of mine.
But I am more optimistic about the NBA potential on this team than you to are, even though I suspect you have a better feel for this than I have.
Doke is NBA. (back up) His speed and mobility will get him a spot.
Svi is NBA. (back up) That three of his will get much more deadly in the NBA. If he can hang around 2-3 seasons he could even wind up a starter.
Malik is NBA. (starter or backup) I had my doubts about him because of his size, but he has the gun and he is doing the kind of athletic stuff that NBA guys can do.
Devonte is NBA. (back up) If Frank can make it, Devonte can.
Silvio is NBA. (starter)
If Vick comes back, another year, he could become an NBA level player. He has a fine shot and he has done every kind of domestique job Self has laid on him this season. Vick appears to have some concentration issues, but lots of guys overcome those. At his best, he is a superb basketball player. I hope he comes back, because I think he could become dominant next year.
Marcus Garrett its too soon to say, but if he can learn to put it on the deck at his height, and with his touch, he could mature into an NBA grade player. He is very, very young. Everything he has done he has done with a boy's body, not a man's body. He will weigh 15 pounds more as a junior, or senior. He could become a superb 6-7 perimeter player and a lock down defender of the kind needed in the L as a back up. He will fill out just as Svi has, and he already has better quicker footwork that Svi.
Teams don't get to the FF without some NBA caliber players.
Self has some race horses and they have made a run for the roses and got to some pretty rarified air.
Josh Jackson and Frank Mason are balling for bucks in No Boys Allowed. But they couldn't get this far.
There appears more to the talents of these players than met the eye earlier this season.
Playing two very good teams in 3 days will put a sweat on any team. But KU played SOME TOUGH TWO GAME SETS, like WVU AND KSU, right? And in regular season you have to play in the other teamâs crib, which you donât have to do in the Carney.
The appearance of differing seeding paths and whistles appearing more difficult than regular season seem factors also. More asymmetry in seeding paths and whistles might lower one teams stats some, and raise anotherâs, but I havenât read evidence of such.
But I donât see any conspiracies in basketball, unless and until (if ever) proven by the authorities in court. Conspiracy theories appear intel memes for suckers.
So what is there to see? Maybe some entertainment value bias, since Coach Barry Hinson reportedly mentioned some once. And maybe an appearance of rent-a-teams, since Coach Bo Ryan reputedly referred to one team as such.
Well, youâve given me at least enough toget ina constructive denial until the game . đ
Thank you, I needed that.
43% will get us to the Finals.
Iâm scalping some some tickets NOW!
I swear I did not crib from the kid.
Heâs just smarter than me!!
Agree on the dome effect lowering trey accuracy, though I havenât seen stats on it.
If the dome effect wreaks havoc, KU may benefit with its better big men than Nova.
Canât say about second game.
Thought I cleared this up previously.
Conference season is a weekly series of mostly 2 in 3 or 2 in 4 sets that model and prepare teams for the tournament format. The only disimilarity is the 3 in 3 conference tournament, but that is only one week.
So trends and stats from regular season should be good predictors of post season with the major variable being sharply better average of competition, which might actually drive down stats in the short term.
Quick recovery wished!
The Doke-Mitch-Silvio Post Complex have averaged 20.8 ppg and 13.7 rpg. We are likely to need significantly more from themâmore points and more rebounds on both ends.
KU has most recently shot 41% and then 35% descending into its cyclic shooting trough on treys.
The range of prior troughs have been 19% and 35%, so we should expect the coming trough to fall somewhere between and guesstimate in the middle: 28%.
(Note: the 35% against Duke could have been the trough, but I suspect the refs letting Duke hack KU took KU lower than IT OTHERWISE would have descended that soon. Without the hacking, KU probably would have been, say, 37-38% with another descent coming this coming game for the real bottom somewhere in the low 30s or high 20s.)
KU averages 10.1 3pt makes per game on 40.1% 3pt shooting.
Letâs guess KU makes 7 treys; thatâs 3 makes below average, or 9 points needing to be made up another way.
Extra focus on Offensive rebounding and put backs with our longer bigs (compared with Nova) could get us 2 baskets, or 4 points.
Diverting a few more 3pta possessions to feeding the bigs could get get us maybe one more 2 on a lob dunk than average, since Nova is not long inside, but very active nonetheless. Call that 2 more points. Note: We canât expect short-three fouls being awarded by refs against Nova any more than against Puke. Thus, perimeter driving or feeding the post for short treys is NOT how to close the trey gap for a W.
We are still really 4 points, or 2 2point baskets shy of over coming the trey deficit by +1 point. What to do?
Where to find 2 more buckets?
Sound the defensive trumpets!
We need a few extra strips and blocks/recoveries.
Defense helps wins two ways:
a.) by holding down the opponents shooting percentages with belly button defense; and
b.) by stealing possessions (I.e., by denying the opponent the chance to make a basket with a strip or block).
Alas, stripping Nova one on one on the dribble is tough, because they are really a bunch of combo guards same as KU is.
Self usually addresses this issue one of three ways:
a.) with stretches of surprise lane-jumping defense; I.e., defenders gambling on jumping into the passing lanes and risking being out of position to recover if they donât intercept the pass;
b.) with wing-stripping of lane drivers, I.e., a point guard overplaying on ball and funneling the PG to drive to a side of the lane, where the nearest KU wing is sagging to strip the dribble.
c.) a out of the blue resort to a 3/4 court press (he apparently likes this least).
Jay Wrong knows Selfâs 3 tendencies, so Self may be forced to âinnovateâ another stripping technique.
KU has to have about 4 stolen possessions to get two made 2point baskets.
The only other reasonable way to deal with this trey deficit, given the likely asymmetric whistle, is denying Nova enough second shots (enough under its average of second shot scoring), so that KU does not have to make up the last two baskets at all.
Self appears to take the incremental approach to most scoring problems. He breaks things down and gets a little more here and allows a little less there and before you know it the deficit from bad shooting to make up is not insurmountable, if, that is, you donât lose your offensive focus and defensive intensity from the shots you miss.
Rock Chalk!!!
Without a Blake Griffin, poor, pitiful Pitt.
Capel can be .600 with hisân and.600 with yourân.
And get you violated up, too.
Any game I canât figure out what both coaches are doing over half the time while Iâm watching. This is the common thread for me. Most games are pretty transparent. But Self and K schooled me for at least 2/3s of the game. Amazing to watch.
There is no shame in being wrong about this team.
This team has endured and triumphed over more hardship than any bunch since the Marines on Guadalcanal.
I have been optimistic about what they could accomplish since about three weeks before they won the conference title; that much I forecast correctly. But several others have seen this coming long before me.
And I believed they could get to the Final Four if they had an off shooting game in the second weekend and the other team had a worse one; that much I saw correctly.
But when @wissox put me on the spot and said, okay, batenac 1.0, tell me what's going to happen next, I just couldn't 't see it clearly beyond what I have so far stated above. These guys are just amazing human beings that I have nicknamed the "Find-a-Way Boys." They are finding doors now that I can't see.
Hell, most of the game yesterday I was ragging about how they weren't executing, or capitalizing on, the stuff Self was giving them that was obviously shaking them loose. I don't know how many times I jumped up off the sofa and started yelling at the big screen for Vick to shoot, or put it on the deck and drive and dish, when he would get the ball in the high post and kick it out, or just stand and look at an open man he could have bounce passed to, or driven to the post and dished off to!!!!!! Then for another stretch I was jumping off the sofa and screaming, throw the ball into Vick again; then I went through a patch where I was yelling go inside, go inside, go inside.
I still don't really know how they did it. @HighEliteMajor made some good points about KU 's defensive tactics that rang true with me. And its obvious that Malik supernovaed and that Duke tired some down the stretch and Silvio grabbed ten boards as a sub and Malik missed almost no free throws and KU shot 35% from trey and Duke shot 24% from trey, but as to exactly what Self and Devonte finally figured out that allowed Malik to just begin to run wild the last five of regulation and the five of over time, I really don't have a clue.
Several stages of the first 30 minutes it was obvious the changes Self was making, most of which either didn't work very well, or the players could not capitalize on because they were still too confused about reading the defenses well enough to take the open looks they were getting. This was the longest I have ever seen this team take to get off its heels and really attack an opponent. I can't say if it was a plan, or if they were just so baffled by the multiple defenses of Duke that it took them 35 minutes to find the way to attack Duke.
But whether I understand it or not, and whether we can forecast it or not, shoot! It was an incredibly beautiful thing to witness down the stretch!!!!
Talk about a gutsy performance!!!
Holy Cow!
JayHawkFanToo said:
...but...have you been to a little town in New Mexico called Truth or Consequence? :smile:
I actually stayed all night in a motel there once. Crazy little place.
In about 75 more years of basketball excellence by these two newbies, we can talk about the Blue Blood issue.
The cameras limit what we can know and in a game when no-calling in favor of Duke appeared so prevalent it would not be surprising for the cameras to minimize the protesting responses to the no-calling; that seemed to be the case yesterday. I didn't feel I saw as much of Self yesterday as I saw of Coach K.
But more likely I suspect, is that Self probably made a decision about not protesting before the game even started. Anything we can see, Self can see and see more deeply, because its his full time job to do so. Self it appears would be aware of the kind of no-call refereeing that occurs in games Coach K coaches. No amount of protesting and shaming has appeared ever to have diminished this apparently appallingly asymmetric refereeing in the past, so perhaps Self decided: why waste time and resources to protest and shame, when it doesn't equalize the calls downstream? Why not just accept it and focus entirely on maneuvers and tactics?
drgnslayr said:
Our guys got beat up in this game, and Duke should have been in extreme foul trouble all game. But it only takes one call not going their way and they are in trouble.
The refs are enablers for Duke. So they count on the calls... and it only takes one call to send Duke home. Malik received that call... and so it's bye-bye Duke!
PHOF
Newman has been playing marvelously. His scoring and rebounding from his position have been exactly what our team has needed from game to game. He hasn't taken over when he hasn't needed to. He has stayed a part of the flow and scored within it until the team has needed a lift and he has given it to the team. Several of his plays yesterday were entering into that physical realm of how did he do that sort of stuff.
But so has Devonte. He just hit so many big shots the first 35 minutes of the game, when the rest of the team was finding a way to win the thing. These were shots that kept the game from getting out of hand in Duke's favor. Devonte has played through what appeared a concussion a few games back. He hasn't been as sharp, but the guy still plays 35-40 mpg and keeps being the bar tender that keeps tasting and stirring the drink to find the right mix. What was so unbelievably impressive about Devonte yesterday was that Duke was switching zones almost every possession, some times during a possession, and out of each zone Duke was doing some morphing (match-up) according to KU's offensive sets. Remember, this was the second of 2 games in three days. KU had one day to prepare for 1-3-1, 2-1-2, 3-2, 2-3, 3-2 junk, and probably some stuff I missed. It was the MOST complex and difficult to recognize (i.e., best masked) multiple defense I have ever watched. This was a classic example of what the attack philosophy of the Marine Corp is about that Self has borrowed and adapted to basketball over the years. KU was coming ashore without time to prepare for every variation of zone Duke had waiting for them. KU only knew whatever it drew up to do against the multiple zone defense in anticipation would not turn out to be what it finally would win with. It knew it would go ashore with a strategy that would soon break down and turn into a kind of improvisational search for what might work as the minutes and circumstances of the game unfolded. Tactics became strategy. Tactics became strategy. Tactics became strategy. It was fitful. Devonte spent much of the game trying this and then trying that, and then trying the next thing. Frankly, I have never seen a point guard have to probe and reset, and probe and reset, and have one thing work awhile and then Coach K adjusted and Devonte had walk into the buzz saw and pull back with as little damage as possible and then start trying the next thing Self was asking for. It got to a point where even Self went dry at times on the attack tactics, though as @HighEliteMajor noted yesterday, Self's defensive schemes were as brilliant as Coach K's, but actually more bottomless in their flexibility and maneuver. It was at the moments, when nothing was working, when Devonte couldn't tell who could "find a way" to get a basket, that Devonte's steadiness was the difference. And steadiness has been a learned skill for Devonte. Last season when he was often the one Frank Mason would turn to to go off for a stretch, while Frank was finding a way, Devonte could go off like a Roman Candle the same way Malik did yesterday against Duke. This season early on Devonte went of for as many points as Malik did yesterday 2 or 3 times. These incredibly gifted athletes are great at going off. The next level, however, the one that Michael Jordan used to talk about and demonstrate, is finding the way for the team, finding a way to make the teammates more productive until the weakness in the opponents armor has finally been found and the time to strike a decisive blow is right. What Devonte did yesterday was keep everyone in the action for 35 minutes. What Devonte did yesterday was correctly identify and "find a way" through the bewildering defenses and no-call physical attacks on his team, while on offense, and then after a lot of trial and error, and retrial and re-error, and vulnerabilities found and vulnerabilities closed by Coach K, Devonte found the right time and the right way to get Malik, who was already cooking, to turn the burner all the way up and boil without burning the team soup. The number of correct decisions, both about what Self was trying that wasn't working and about what Self was sending in that was working (both players and plays) was truly astounding. Devonte played the point guard position in what I would argue was one of the toughest tactical circumstances a point guard could face. At some points he was being fed new tactics by his Hall of Fame coach on nearly every possession and having to try to make them work, while trying to simultaneously recognize what the winningest college basketball coach in history was countering with in real time. This was a serious competition between coaches, not just players. Both men seemed to understand what each was up against. Both seemed to understand that to get by the other would deliver either to a point where the other coaches were not likely to be more skillful than the man each was facing in the KU-Duke game. In short, each man seemed to understand that a likely ring down the road hung in the balance yesterday. And each man was juiced about trying to get the better of his opponent as a professional test also. Rarely do we get to see such greatness meet when so much was on the line. It would have been more dramatic in the finals, but the competitive fury of both coaches could not have risen higher than it was yesterday.
There are very, very few college basketball point guards that could have processed and then executed all the tactical maneuvering going on by both coaches. Coach K for much of the game was simply maneuvering his team in real time at light speed, while Self tried as usual to wait to the second half to show his hand. But with about 8 to go in the first half, Self began pulling the wrinkles out right and left to try to keep the game from getting away from KU. He sensed a crack in the door where KU might separate a little too. It set in motion a coaching competition for the ages that I believe Self was not totally up to winning, as he so often can easily do against lesser coaches. Self is usually the one that injects the wrinkle that the other coach has no clue about. But every thing Self tried almost by the next possession Coach K had called in something from the sideline that countered and closed off what Self had tried. It was flipping amazing to watch. Coach K, loath him though I do, is GOOD, REALLY GOOD.
We were not watching Malik taking over this team and making it his yesterday.
We were watching something like The Lord of the Rings play out on hard wood. Self was Gandalf, the good sorcerer caught up in having to lead an unlikely alliance of players and talents into a battle with a head coach and program that often appear like the Dark Lord Sauron and the dragon that hides in ill-gotten gold and resists it being taken with the most horrific behaviors. The war between the forces of light and dark is often harrowing. The dark side routinely breaks all the rules it insists others play by and falsely claims to play by itself. But in the end such battles are not determined by Gandalf, or Lord Sauron, or even by one of the great warriors on the side of light, but by the forces of light learning to work together despite their differences and by their Gandalf recognizing an everyman hero among them that has the most unique quality of all among his followers--the ability to lead generously and without being overwhelmed by momentary failure and seeming hopelessness. Gandalf must find his Frodo. The great sorcerer must find his hero among those that actually live in Middle Earth. The everyman hero is often overlooked, or mistaken for not being up to the task. But the Gandalf, the good sorcerer, sees the potential and is both courageous enough to take the risk, and wily enough to by the time for Frodo to find that which was within him all along. Devonte fooled us all for awhile, because after last season when he went off like a roman candle so many times, we began to see him as something more dazzling than a Frodo. But Self saw through to the heart of Devonte. He saw the little everyman that would never give up, never cease finding a way, never hesitate to either take over himself when that was best, nor lack the generosity of spirit to set the stage for the one among them that could most effectively take over. Frodo in The Lord of the Rings is the embodiment of the everyman that must "be" a hero himself for all the other forces of sorcerers and great warriors to achieve what they might--to topple dark empires--to preserve what good remains in Middle Earth that has to be defended, no matter the cost. The first secret of the Frodos of the world, whether they really are little hobbits, or whether they really are great athletes as Devonte Graham is, is that inside they can find-the-way under the greatest adversity. The second secret of the Frodos of the world is that they know what their Gandalf's know without knowing they know it in the beginning. And by the end, when they know they know the magic, also, they have a kind of supreme humility that allows them to return to normalcy until the next great conflict that requires them to find a way in order to preserve their Middle Earth. This is the rarest of rare qualities. It is so rare and precious that even Gandalf is in awe of them, because Gandalf the sorcerer understands deepest of all that victory is impossible without a Frodo willing to do what only must be done.
Malik played one of the greatest games I can recall. He scored the points and grabbed the rebounds that KU could not have won without and that down the stretch it seemed at times only he had the physical abilities and skills and daring to accomplish.
But the truth is all 32 points and seven rebounds would not have been enough, if all the other team members had combined for five points less than THEY did. It is a ultimately and indivisibly a team game. Malik's great performance, without any of his teammates point productions large and small, would have ended in an L. All points, whether few, or many, are VITAL to win. ALL. ARE. VITAL. FOR. VICTORY.
So: because all points are vital, what matters most is enabling all to get all the points that are necessary to be gotten; this is why the point guard is such a vital position. He keeps the team from trying to score with the wrong man and keeps the team trying to score with the right one. He keeps the team trying to find the right way to win, while the opposing HOF coach and his gifted team trying to keep closing off paths of successful attack and draw him and his team down paths of deception. He has to become used to trusting that doors not yet visible will keep being found when all, even at times himself, are clueless about where any doors may be and how the ones known about can be opened...
UNTIL. THEY. FIND. A. WAY.
This win was a team thing if ever their were one.
Every player gave this team whatever it needed as soon as Self and Devonte could figure out where another door was and try it. Every player on the team backed off from what stopped working and followed Devonte's lead to keep finding what would work. Every player.
A team is everyone that joins it and gives everything to it.
There is no making this Malik's team now. Or anyone else's that goes off in one of the next two games.
This is not Self's team any more than the forces of light in middle earth were Gandolf's team. This is not Devonte's team anymore than the forces of light in Middle Earth were Bilbo's team. This is EVERYONE'S TEAM!
And this is where greatness resides and does great things routinely in order to defeat the forces of darkness and the Dark Lord Sauron.
I for one would like to dedicate this amazing win by KU over Duke and the referees to all the fine teams in the past that have appeared to have been victimized by Duke and the referees in tournaments past.
This win was for Wisconsin and Bo Ryan, for Butler and Brad Stevens, and others, too.
It was a win for all the fans of the greatest game ever invented that still hold out hope for a day in the future, when teams will no longer appear to have to play Duke and the refs in the tournament.
Rock Chalk!
PHOF
NASAâs near space network was tracking Malik the last 5 of rev and all of reg. They are giving him reentry assistance to try to get him safely into the locker room right now!
The FIND A WAY BOYS found a way again!!!!
Jeust amazing!
Every player made big plays at one point or another
Malik joined the great games played in KU history today
Itâs okay, I know what itâs like to be young and trying to master stats. Once I knew that about you I understood and will give you all the love you need. Been there.
Greatest single defeat of refereeing I have ever witnessed!!!