🏀 KuBuckets Archive

If KU recruits the 20-50 guys, that's Brannen Greene and Andrew White.

We remember when lower guys become Frank Mason and Devonte Graham. You will hit with lower guys sometimes, but you will also miss.

Conner Frankamp. Merv Lindsay. Omar Wilkes. Rio Adams. Royce Woolridge. Micah Downs. Alex Galindo. Quintrell Thomas. That's nearly a full rotation of players that transferred out of KU that were lower ranked recruits.

Frank and Devonte represent the "best case" scenario for lower ranked guys. They are the exception, not the rule.

As for Svi, most recruiting services agreed at the time that if Svi had been a US high school player, he would have been a top 30 recruit. Svi was always going to be a top prospect. He just wasn't ranked because he didn't play HS ball here in the US.

Trent has ideal size for an NBA wing. He can shoot it (over 40% from three, over 85% from the FT line), so the only hurdle is improving his defense to make him an impact 3 and D wing. No surprise he's heading to the NBA. His role in the NBA really won't change much from his role at Duke. He's not a lottery pick, but he could help a playoff team as soon as next season. He's a perfect late first round pick for an established team.

@BShark

Preston was never going to play at KU, so it is no surprise that he left. That's not a case of the going getting tough. That's a case of coming to the end of the road.

As for Cunliffe, I wouldn't say he's been terrible. I would say he's been uneven, but hasn't played enough to really grade out. Now I have not been at practice, so I trust if other people say he hasn't been good in practice, he hasn't been good. Cunliffe had a five game stretch where he played 20 minutes, 9 minutes, DNP, 9 minutes, 11 minutes. That's 49 of the 74 minutes he played all season in five games (including a DNP). In that stretch he shot 9-19, had 22 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal and two turnovers. Those are not great numbers, but they are not so bad as to be unplayable. Cunliffe didn't play more than six minutes in a game after that, and, after playing in the next two games, never played in back to back games after that. It's basically impossible to evaluate a player when they play that little.

I wouldn't fault Cunliffe if he were to transfer out. He didn't play last year (wasn't really given much of an opportunity) and he likely won't play next year. Dropping down to Division 2 would give him an opportunity to prove himself and have a chance for a pro career overseas.

Should also be noted that Montgomery can slide up a position and play the 3 a bit (can shoot and handle), so that unclogs the interior some because if you only have 4.5 guys, that gives you more options.

@BShark

Self has had McDs AA's come off the bench for him (or barely play). That's what hurts a kid coming to KU. Look at a guy like Sam Cunliffe. He's not a guy that was in line to be drafted by the NBA, but he played 74 total minutes this season. Once Self decides he's not going to play you, you just don't see the floor. And that's on a team that was desperate for depth. And Cunliffe still couldn't get off the bench even when this team was struggling.

If you're a recruit and you see that, it makes you think twice. That's Self's style. He's going to cut his rotation down and play those seven or eight guys. Calipari will keep a larger rotation, and will play nine or ten guys, so it's easier for him to stack a roster. KU has a pretty loaded roster next year, but I guarantee that only eight of those guys see any kind of time. That makes it less attractive for more guys to come, particularly if you know that there are veterans in front of you, since Self has a tendency to go to those guys.

The game itself is a show. The scrimmages are where the actual competition is. That's what the scouts go to see. They actually run sets in the scrimmages. They actually defend in the scrimmages in the practices.

The games are for dunking and throwing lobs, etc. Hoop Summit generally is better, as @BShark said. The international guys have played together a bit longer and this is much more of a structured game than an all star game. There will probably be a quarter as many dunks in the Hoop Summit.

@Kcmatt7

Gabriel was coming off the bench for them this year, so I don't see that being an issue for him next year.

Wynward was suspended last year anyway, and had discussed transferring, so he was on his way out as well. Washington is leaving. That leaves SKJ and Vanderbilt (got hurt, so he's probably coming back), plus Richards, Gabriel and Montgomery. They also have Jemarl Baker coming in (missed the whole season with injury). He should help with their shooting issues. UK has the advantage that Calipari has shown that even guys coming off the bench can get drafted, so guys aren't going to be as worried about starting as they would other places.

Agbaji is a better shooter as a HS senior than any of the guys that you listed, @truehawk93

Now, Releford and Selden both developed quite a bit as three point shooters while at KU, so it will remain to be seen if Agbaji has enough growth in his game to develop like that over a four year period.

Langford never did develop much of a three point stroke. Never shot even 36% while at KU. I would imagine Agbaji would surpass that as a freshman given the mechanics I have seen on video from him. If I were a coach at KU, I would hope that Garrett develops to be a Langford level shooter, while I would hope that Agbaji develops to the point that Selden did (right around 40% from three by the time he is a junior). I think Agbaji's development curve could make him a high level starter as a three or four year player. He has really impressed me with his development. Just looking back at what he was as a junior until now is an incredible thing to watch.

@truehawk93

The basics are important to be sure, but @BigBad makes a great point about changing things up.

On top of that, you also have to go back to your strong hand when dealing with great shot blockers. I remember when I started playing against better shot blockers in HS and moving into college that I basically stopped shooting layups with my left hand unless it was a breakaway. Good shot blockers could reject a lefty layup with ease, but if I kept the ball in my strong hand, I could change my shot (floater, scoop, finger roll, double clutch, whatever) and still get a good attempt off, rather than an awkward half hearted flip at the basket with my off hand.

With as quick as a lot of the shotblockers now close space and get off the floor, you have to do whatever you can to disrupt their timing. Lots of kids now are learning the Eurostep, which is one way to do that, but they are also now teaching kids to keep the ball in their strong hand to finish the Eurostep off.

Additionally, at the higher levels, you always teach kids to finish by dunking when they can. As a result, you have to get them to keep the ball in their strong hand. If they are always switching to their off hand, they won't dunk, which, for guys with an NBA future, is a bad habit to get into because NBA guys will block those layups all the time.

As a result, for a lot of kids, they don't shoot layups with the "correct" hand once they start dunking because the teaching is to keep the ball in your strong hand to give you a chance to dunk whenever possible.

I think Doke is a tremendous college player. I also think Doke should have only played 10 minutes (or less) against Villanova. Those are two thoughts that are not mutually exclusive.

Doke is a great player. He led the nation in shooting percentage, and had one of the great shooting seasons in the history of college basketball. That will certainly play.

The difficultly is that, because his pluses are so big, it's hard to take him out of games even when the matchup is terrible for him.

That's what makes me hesitate with him. It's not that he's not good. It's that he's so good, it's hard to say, Doke is a near All American, but we aren't going to play him against such and such team because its a bad matchup. That's a tough call to make. If Doke were less good, that would be an easy decision. But he's not, so it's hard to just not play him, even when the situation dictates that you should not play him if a team is playing a legitimate 5 out line up.

@nuleafjhawk

It depends what I am hiring for.

If I am hiring entry level positions, I don't expect talented people to stay in those positions very long. Most very talented people are also ambitious enough that once they outgrow that position, they will move on to a position that is more in line with their abilities.

If I am hiring for mid and upper management, I expect more of a long term commitment, but that comes with offering more as well - higher salary, more authority, more benefits, etc.

CBB is the equivalent of the entry level position. Once these guys show that they can handle that position, they are going to move to the higher, more demanding position because college can't offer them that. Asking a potential OAD to stay is like asking a person with CEO talent to remain in the mailroom. Eventually, they will just walk out because their talent dictates it.

Self wants his PG's to control pace and get teammates involved. Moore is a score first guy that primarily plays up tempo. That's not really a match for the type of guy Self generally has at the point.

@BeddieKU23

You're on the money there. It's what makes Doke such a fascinating player. He's a throwback that doesn't necessarily fit in this era of basketball. As a result, there are games where he outright dominated, and others where he just can't find his footing. Doke may be the most matchup dependent player in the country. Against a team that let's him stay in the paint, he is one of the most dominant players in the country. Against a team that makes him play 15+ feet from the basket, he's a liability.

The thing is, there's really not much in between. He can literally dunk you to death if you let him stay in the paint, whether against a man to man or a zone. But if he has to chase guys on the perimeter, he's a foul prone, out of position traffic cone, hesitant to come all the way out to the perimeter to defend, but too far from the basket to rebound and protect the rim.

I have literally never seen anything like it.

@BeddieKU23

Initially, I would have agreed with your thoughts. However, I was talking to a friend and they got me thinking.

If I coached at a midmajor, I would be better off recruiting undersized skill guys and playing 5 out than trying to match up with smaller, or less skilled big men. If I know I will never have a 7 footer, why bother with a slow 6-9 guy when I can grab a 6-7 guy and see if he can develop a decent shot, or handle the ball a little bit to draw big men away from the rim.

@BShark

Girard looks like a shorter JJ Redick. Nice 4 year player, but limited in what he will be able to do in college because he's not that big, and his game dictates that he needs to play off the ball to be the most successful, kind of like Jeff Boschee.

Boschee's career really took off playing with Aaron Miles and Kirk Hinrich because he could get his catch and shoot game going. Playing on ball, Boschee couldn't catch and shoot, so he wasn't as dangerous. His senior year, with both Miles and Hinrich, he shot 46% from three while taking over 6 threes a game.

Girard needs to be paired with a good PG, otherwise he's going to disappoint from playing out of position.

Agbaji has come on so strong over the last 18 months, I don't know that he needs to redshirt. His development curve has ramped up so quickly that I am not sure where to put him right now. A year ago, I wouldn't have even picked him to be an All Metro level player (not first team, anyway). He ended up being POY. Agbaji has absolutely exploded in the last year. He was probably only a three star player before. He's a good four star now, and trending upward.

I don't know if he will be a four year guy, or if his improvement will continue at this rate, but Agbaji could help next season's team, particularly if Langford doesn't join because Agbaji can shoot a bit.

Vick will be a pro. He has the clearest path IMO because he is a 3 and D wing player. Every team needs at least 3 of those guys.

I think Tait nailed it that Doke is a player without an era right now. He just doesn't fit into where the NBA is going, and to some extent, where the college game is going. He was so clearly out of place against Villanova. That is a hard thing to deal with.

To improve, Doke needs to work more away from the basket. A year of having to guard Dedric out on the perimeter would do him well, but Self will likely have him inside banging against McCormack. Given the need for versatility on both ends, I am not sure that helps KU or the players.

Doke is in a tough spot. I don't think he improves his pro chances by staying at KU, but I also don't think he's ready to make the jump. On top of that, I am not sure he makes KU better next season if he stays. This is incredibly complicated for a guy that is legitimately talented. He could shoot 80% from the field next year, but there would be games where he would be outright unplayable. The question is would Self just not play him in those situations?

I figured this was coming. Vick will probably spend a year or two in the G League before he has a chance to hook on consistently with an NBA team, similar to what Wayne Selden did, playing most of two seasons in the G League and now getting more consistent work in the NBA.

NBA Jam was all about having good three point shooters, so definitely the Snipers, with Run N' Gun a close second because both Tyshawn and T-Rob would be good dunkers, and next to three point shooting, dunking was the best skill.

@Kcmatt7

I totally agree that this team has to develop its own identity.

Because so many guys will be new, or in very different roles than in the past, there is no clear identity for the team right now. We can't know what they will be because they don't even know that yet. It's quite possible their leading scorer is still in HS in Indiana (maybe?). The second leading rebounder may be in Virginia right now. The best two way guy may have watched every game in sweats. The starting PG either watched every game in sweats, or is going to prom this month.

This team isn't whole yet, and because of that, we can't know what they will be.

Guys will have to take on new roles. Grimes may have to be more of a spot up shooter to help stretch the floor (without Langford). Dotson and Grimes will both have to get used to not being primary scorers sometimes. McCormack will have to get used to anchoring the defense. KJ may have to come off the bench. Moore may be running the second unit. De Sousa may have to be more than just an energy guy. Garrett may need to help stretch the floor.

Until those roles clarify themselves, this team has no identity. They are KU X. But that's what makes this fun. They are nothing and everything all at once. They have all the potential and possibility in the world. They are a daydream. If you squint a little, you can see greatness, but it's not fully formed yet. It's just an idea waiting for the right time to come out.

But you can also see the questions simmering below the surface.

Without Langford, can this team space the floor? Is either Moore or Dotson going to be able to run the offense and defer to teammates? Is KJ willing to come off the bench? What can Agbaji give us? Will Dedric be more efficient with less touches? Who defends the other team's best perimeter player? Are there enough touches for all of the scorers on this team? Will this team defend if everyone isn't getting their shots?

Taking pride in doing their part is a huge thing. I can't remember who said it first, but there's a saying that you have to be a star in your role. If you are a screener/ rebounder/ garbage guy, be a star screener/ rebounder/ garbage guy. If you are a distributor, be a star distributor. If you are a defensive stopper, be a star defensive stopper. Star in your role.

The post is so difficult because of the number of turnovers caused/created. With double teams forcing the ball out of the post, if your post is not a very good passer, you can't capitalize on post ups when there are double teams.

Once upon a time, a post guy could be a black hole type player and still succeed. That is not the case any more.

Kansas is the Big 12 champion until someone demonstrates that they can take the crown away. Period. There's none of that "could this be..." crap. Until it is done on the court, all of that is just wishful thinking. It's like the Jordan Bulls of the 1990's. Everybody wanted to talk about who might win the title, but until you beat the Bulls, that conversation was worthless. There's none of this "could be" stuff. When a team is dominant, the burden of proof is on everyone else to prove they can win. Not the other way around.

With the way things are in D1 now, if you aren't playing by your sophomore season, chances are you never see the floor, so kids are more apt to move. Once you have been in the program a couple of years, the staff has decided who you are within that program. They have determined whether or not they think you can play, so if they don't think that, they won't play you.

Plus, at the lower levels, coaching volatility is kind of high, so the guy that recruited you may be on his way out due to lack of success, too much success, retirement, etc.

Because sports takes up so much time at the collegiate level, its hard to stick somewhere when you're not playing and could play somewhere else. Look at the guys that have left KU - most went on to play elsewhere, many times starting and even starring at a different school. Hard to justify sitting and watching when you're good enough to play somewhere else.

At a midmajor, the key is to not recruit over your head. Ideally, Dooley won't compete with UNC, Duke and UVA for talent.

He will be competing more with Virginia Tech, South Carolina and Wake Forest, but able to sell them the chance to win conference titles and a decent shot at a deep tournament run because the AAC is strong enough that you can argue a team from that conference could win a national title if they are good enough. Cincinnati got a 2 seed this year. If you have a good season in the American, you will be seeded well.

That's a lot better than having a great season in the Atlantic Sun, then missing out on the tournament altogether because you lost your conference tournament title game.

I could actually see Knox moving up to be a top 5 pick in 2019 if he returns. If he can improve his ball handling so that he can be a primary scorer at the next level, he's a top 5 pick, particularly since the 2018 HS group isn't exactly overwhelming. If Knox can make himself into a star at the next level, he should return and do that. If he can't, he should go and be a role player now.

SGA probably leaves. Washington probably returns. UK is probably stacked if that happens. If SGA stays, look out. They are right on the level with KU and Duke.

@BShark

Svi's freshman percentages were not good. However, Svi was regarded as a good shooter from the time he came onto the scene at the Nike hoop summit in 2014.

At the end of [this video](

Svi has always been a good shooter. Garrett has not. That's my worry with him. The results have never been there.

@nuleafjhawk

Maybe we don't lose 8 or 9, but I can't see us winning more than 3 against Villanova. It's a bad matchup for this team. Doke can't really guard any of their guys, so we can't take advantage of having him inside without getting scorched on the other end. That gives them a huge advantage against us. I would guess we go 3-7, with a couple of our wins being pretty close, while they might beat us by double figures two more times in addition to winning a few close ones. We just can't match up with them in a way that gives us consistent advantages.

Villanova was, for the better part of the season, the best team in the country. They lost the Big East this season even though they swept Xavier. Villanova lost four conference games, Xavier lost three, twice to Nova, and once to Providence. If Villanova doesn't drop that odd St. John's game when St. John's was briefly the hottest team in the country, they win their conference.

Not only did Nova beat Xavier twice, they beat them twice by double digits, winning by 16 in Cincinnati and by 24 in Philly. Villanova was pretty clearly the better team compared to Xavier, even though Xavier also had a great season.

I think the real point in Nova's favor as the best team in the country is this - of their 36 wins, just six did not come by double figures. Nova not only won 36 games, they won most in clearly dominant fashion. There's really no question to me that Villanova was the best team in the country, and I don't think putting them in a different region would have changed that.

They dominated all season. They dominated in March. They dominated the title game. Hats off to them.

Declarations will probably pick up now that the season is over.

I imagine Brunson, Bridges, Wagner, and Newman will all declare with or without agents in the next few days. Quite a few others may test the waters.

It wouldn't be the worst decision for guys like Azubuike and Dean Wade (KSU) to test the waters so they know where they specifically need to improve over the next year. That's what Barry Brown is likely doing, and I think it is smart for a guy that may be a year away to test and get feedback. Because you can't really have contact, most college players don't have anyone they can talk to that can give them legitimate feedback and guidance. Vick should at least test the water for that reason. Even if he does return, he needs a specific list of things to work on so that he can round out his game to have the best possible opportunity in the pros.

@CRH107

You do have to innovate, but you have to innovate in the direction that things are moving. Right now, things are moving away from post ups and power basketball, to more of a drive and kick, four or five out offensive set.

You have to be able to defend those types of sets, because every midmajor will be running that type of set in the next few years - it's easier to find good guards than it is to find skilled big men. There are probably 15 guys in the KC area that are 6-5 or smaller that will play D1 somewhere. Any program can get most of those players. If you can't guard guys one on one when they put the ball on the floor, you will be surrendering open threes. Do that against a good shooting team and, well, we saw how a defense can get shredded in short order on Saturday night.

You can have whatever offensive gameplan you want, but if every other team is spreading the floor and shooting the three, you had better be able to at least defend that, regardless of what you do on the other end.

@BShark

I do think Self and staff can get Garrett's shot corrected. My major worry is that, although his shot isn't significantly mechanically broken (like Doke's FT stroke), the fact that it is reasonably sound and yet he is a legitimately bad shooter is a concern. For instance, Josh Jackson's shot had some mechanical flaws, but he was a better shooter than Garrett. When your mechanics are good, but your shot is bad, it's like being a pitcher with good mechanics that still can't throw strikes. If you can't fix the problem by fixing the mechanics, you have to just hope the person gets better. That's a tough bet. Garrett is a good athlete, and good athletes tend to be able to adjust, but this summer is crucial in his development.

Depth is developed over time. Part of that is that you have to play guys in situations that help them develop. I have beaten this drum for a while now, but Self cuts his rotation down too early in the season. That prevents you from developing depth. Guys have to play. Sam Cunliffe didn't play this year. Could he have been our ace in the hole if we needed to go small in a tournament game against a hot shooting, perimeter oriented team? KU was thin this year, but by the end of the season, our roster still had 9 legitimate D1 major conference players on it - Graham, Vick, Svi, Newman, Doke, De Sousa, Lightfoot, Garrett and Cunliffe. Yet in the last couple games of the season, Lightfoot didn't play, and Cunliffe basically never played all year.

If you want depth, in February when you're playing TCU, you have to give Cunliffe 10-12 minutes. You have to make sure De Sousa is playing 10 minutes a game. Same for Lightfoot. Garrett has to get minutes on the floor where he has to run the offense without Devonte. Sometimes Malik should have to initiate the offense with Svi and Cunliffe on the wings. Vick should have been doing that as well.

You can't develop depth if you only have guys in specific roles and never challenge them to handle other responsibilities for a few minutes a game.

DiVincenzo came off the bench for Nova basically all year. And yet, do you know how many games he scored 20+? Five. He even went for 30 once. So DiVincenzo going off in the title game was a surprise to the rest of the nation, but not if you were a Villanova fan. He had five games where he hit five or more threes. If you watched Villanova all year, you knew DiVincenzo could get hot and carry the night offensively. He did it a few times this year. That's how you develop depth. He had a role that he could excel in, but he was also put in a position where if he got hot, he could explode.

Why did Brannen Greene never do that at KU?

Why didn't Svi have a game or two like that every season prior to this year?

Andrew White? Cheick Diallo? Guys with a lot of potential that did more sitting and watching than anything else while at KU.

Where was Elijah Johnson in 2011? He played 5 minutes against VCU while Morningstar and Reed went a combined 2-16 from the field.

Self has always tightened his rotation when he gets into tough games, which means if his main guys are struggling, his team is doomed. That's what happened against Oregon - Vick played 27 minutes off the bench. Coleby played four. That was it for bench play.

But that's not a March problem. That's a February problem. You shouldn't be playing a guy 40 minutes, because you might not be able to ride him for 40 minutes in the tournament. These are the lessons March continues to teach. Next January we will find out what we learned.

If Garrett doesn't develop a jumpshot, he will end up being a liability. Basketball is moving more and more towards a four or five out offensive set. If teams don't have to respect your shooting, you had better be an absolutely blur with your slashing ability, or you are an offensive liability. Villanova wasn't guarding Garrett on the perimeter, which made it difficult for him (and others) to drive with him on the court. They sagged off him and he couldn't keep them honest from the perimeter.

That won't hurt KU in the regular season, but with 5 days to prepare, good coaches with talented teams will isolate him in the tournament.

That has always been something that hurts Coach Self. He doesn't prepare to account for his guys' weaknesses, so you end up with teams not covering Lucas and Traylor, or daring Morningstar to beat them with threes, or forcing Doke to cover a jumpshooter 20 feet from the basket. Villanova got a great performance last night from DiVencenzo, but the key was that he can shoot and handle the ball. He's a good athlete, so you can't exploit him defensively. He's not an elite guy on any of those things, but when you are spread out like Nova spreads you, the seams in the defense allow any good shooter to get rolling, and once that happened, Nova found the hot hand and kept feeding him.

With Self, most of his "glue guys" are guys that simply aren't very good offensively. Morningstar could hit an open three, but he couldn't slash and he was an average D1 athlete at best. Traylor and Lucas couldn't shoot past 10 feet. Those limitations make it exceptionally hard to win basketball games. The real reason 2008 was Self's title year is that he didn't play anyone that was a legitimate liability on either end. In 2012, Kevin Young was a bit of a liability offensively. This year, depending on matchups, whomever played the 5 spot was a liability either offensively or defensively - Doke couldn't handle speed, Lightfoot couldn't handle size, De Sousa was not quite ready yet. That makes it tough when you have to hide guys on one end or the other (that's why we beat Duke).

Langford is, right now, a superior pure three point shooter to both Newman and Vick. Langford is as big as Vick and bigger than Newman. Langford is probably on par with Vick as a ballhandler, with Newman being a superior ball handler. As a scorer, Langford and Newman are probably about even (maybe a tiny edge to Newman), with Vick behind those two because he doesn't create his own shot as much.

I can't guarantee that the combination of Langford-Grimes-Dotson will be as good as Vick-Newman-Graham, but from a raw talent perspective, the LGD group is better. That's just the facts. Those three freshmen are each better athletes than their experienced counterpart. If Langford comes, he's an upgrade from a ceiling perspective.

KU's struggles in the postseason have nothing to do with floor and everything to do with ceiling. KU had to be perfect to beat Villanova because it wasn't likely that Newman would drop 40 to keep us in it (only guy on the roster with that type of scoring ability). With guys like Langford and Grimes, they could just take over a game and go for 30+ to keep KU afloat. We need to have that risk element in there in order to win a national championship. Having the consistency is nice for the blood pressure, but it won't guarantee anything come postseason because as the rounds go on, you have to have the highest possible ceiling.

@jayballer73 makes a great point that Vick is never going to be a lottery pick. Vick is probably a second rounder at best, but his more likely route is the G League. If that's the route either way, he probably benefits by getting that process started now, rather than delaying it by another year.

Vick would play if he returns. I don't see a place for Cunliffe in the rotation, though. I don't see how he plays in the future, either. My guess is Cunliffe transfers to a D2 program to play immediately (you can play immediately if you transfer down). That keeps him from having to sit out again.

@HighEliteMajor

I don't think Nova went into the game intending to shoot 40 threes. Every three they took in the first 15 minutes, with the exception of the one Brunson hit over Doke off the dribble, was an open shot in the flow of the offense. Once they went solarflare hot, there was no reason to stop shooting.

When Nova hit their fifth three of the game, I said KU needed to go small. As Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith sometimes say, you can't let the house burn down before you get the kids out. Self should have called timeout right then and gone either to De Sousa, Lightfoot, or (my personal preference) go super small with Garrett.

Instead, the house burned down around KU. Villanova got too hot, and once everyone was hot, there was literally no way to defend them.

If, in another universe, KU comes out and defends the three point line rather than trying to hang back in the paint with Doke, Villanova probably shoots closer to their average number of attempts - let's say 30 or 31 (averaged 29 attempts). That gives them 12 or 13 makes.

If Villanova makes 12 or 13 threes instead of 18, and if KU can get one or two stops besides that, it's a whole different ball game.

When I was in HS, a teammate of mine once hit seven threes in the first half of a game. His first three were open looks in the flow of the offense. His last two were ridiculous, including a 26 footer at the buzzer. The two in between were somewhat more closely guarded, but the other team let him get hot and get his rhythm and that was it. We were up 20 at the break (I think he may have outscored the other team by himself) and the game was basically over. You can't let good shooters get their confidence going because they will eat you alive.

The offense wasn't the problem.

Here's a couple of stretches where KU was scoring, but made up almost nothing on the deficit.

!0_1522693305176_upload-a064a2ce-0092-4a8a-be02-075deb932a02 ↗

!0_1522693381906_upload-f82f418a-23da-40ef-bc26-40a57ba521f3 ↗

First one, KU down 13 after Silvio gets a putback. KU scores 10 points in five possessions. The deficit goes from 15 to 14.

Second one, KU scores 8 points in 4 possessions. Deficit goes from 14 to 12.

At the end of the second spurt, KU had scored 21 points in 7 minutes, which is good offensive work. They had given up 18 points. They played good offense and made up basically no ground. That's a defensive problem.

Look at the three back to back to back possessions in the first chart starting at 10:27. On KU's possessions, they get layups from Newman, Vick and Newman again. Villanova gets threes from Paschall, Booth and Bridges. KU got three consecutive layups, and yet lost three points in the exchange.

In the second one, there's a similar rapid fire exchange. Azubuike dunk, Graham three, Vick jumper. 7 points in 3 possessions. That's great, except Brunson hit two threes in that same stretch to give Villanova six points in two possessions.

KU had the right offensive gameplan.

@BeddieKU23

It was when they switched from D-League to G League. The Gatorade sponsorship raised the contract minimums because the NBA wants to have players utilize that as a development model rather than going to Europe or something else. $75k is enough to make it worthwhile to not worry about culture shock, etc.

This is all part of the NBA's ultimate plan to have more say in the development model for their league, similar to baseball and European soccer (the MLS is starting to do this as well, although the academies are not as well established as their European counterparts).

The two way contracts allow guys to make over a quarter of a million. I would imagine here in a few years you will see most first rounders and pretty much every second rounder on two way deals for their first year unless they can come in and start right away.

@wissox

Almost 40% of the players that played in the NBA this season spent some time in the G League before latching on with the NBA full time. I would expect that number to continue to climb, as probably only the true superstars entering the NBA won't spend at least some time in the G League for development. And with G League salaries now up to $75,000 per year, that's a very viable option.

Take Malik Newman for instance. He will either be a PG at the next level, or an undersized 2. Either way, he's going to be playing on the ball a lot more, probably as a PnR playmaker. If Malik is going to stick as a pro, he needs more reps on that stuff, particularly since he's already been in college for three years. If Malik were to stay at KU next year, he would probably still spend one or two seasons in the G League before being a full time NBA player. This way, he can spend that time in the G League (probably making $150,000+ over those two years) vs. playing for free at KU with the same risk of injury, not making it. If that happens, he can always go back and finish his degree if he so chooses, but he will have some savings to his name if he is smart with his money.

Obviously, he could be foolish and squander it, but that's not something that is particularly exclusive to athletes, despite the narrative. I have several friends from college that are in dire straits financially, and we all graduated. Some just didn't make very good decisions with their money.

@DanR

The KU offensive gameplan was actually quite good. KU took a couple of bad (i.e. quick) shots, but overall, what KU was doing (and trying to do) was both sound and effective.

My criticism is the defensive game plan. As @jaybate-1-0 said, the gameplan now offensively is to drive and kick to open shooters. Make guys chase the ball.

Daryl Morey (Houston Rockets GM) introduced a theory a few years ago that you basically want three types of shots - dunks/layups, three pointers and free throws. You want to minimize shots that aren't one of those three types. The goal is to have roughly 80% of shots coming from either at the rim, or from three point range, with 20% or less being 2 point shots outside the restricted area.

Basically, it's a mathematical argument. For good shooters, they won't shoot all that much better from 15 feet in a game situation than they will from three point range - maybe 2-5 percentage points. So a guy that is a 45% three point shooter is likely only a 50% two point jump shooter at his best. The thing is, because of that, a guy that is a 45% three point shooter would need to shoot above 60% to make it worthwhile to shoot more than a few 2 point jumpers. It's not just "long twos" that are bad. It's the 14 and 15 footers, too.

Here's a visual of the NBA shot chart from 2012-13:

!0_1522678447905_upload-d673b2be-b52a-4d14-99b0-58f4db297a3c ↗

Notice that shots from outside the paint are hovering just under 40%, while threes are just a few percentages below that.

Given that threes are worth 50% more, taking a two point jump shot is basically a fool's errand if you have three point range. With the shorter college three point line, that matters double.

Villanova did not make "lucky" shots. By and large, their threes in the first half were either wide open or open shots. KU insisted on doubling the post, and Villanova has been deadly all year when they get the defense rotating. KU closed out late and Villanova punished them for it.

That's where the lack of adjustments hurt us. Once we saw that Nova was able to diagnose the double team and swing the ball to open shooters, we should have called off the double teaming. We didn't and the Wildcats feasted.

That's not luck. That's making open shots. Had we gotten that same quality of looks for our guys, we could have shot that way. We have shot that well for stretches, but typically when we have gotten hot, teams take away the highest quality looks.

Remember from Friday when one of our Bucketeers was mentioning how Svi hit some pretty ridiculous shots (10 in a row if I remember correctly) at the end of the shootaround.

We gave Villanova shootaround quality shots and they made them. That isn't lucky. That isn't even surprising. Give good shooters good looks and they will make them.

Nobody from the Final Four teams will declare until next Tuesday. Probably will see Wagner from Michigan, the three from KU and Bridges from Villanova. Maybe a few others as well.

I could see Frankamp doing well in the lower levels of overseas ball. He's a great shooter, so he can earn money for years with that. Not an NBA talent, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him still getting paid to play basketball 10 years from now.

I think its a combination of two things.

1. Villanova has been more consistent than KU over the course of the full season. Like KU, they lost 3 of 6 during a stretch, but KU had a separate 2 game losing streak. So over the course of the season, you could argue that Villanova was the better team.

2. Villanova has played better during the tournament. No one has played Villanova within single digits yet during the tournament. KU has won their last three games by 4 points each.

So if you think Villanova had the slightly better regular season, and you also think Villanova is playing more dominantly right now, Villanova is the pick to win this game. Doesn't mean KU can't win. Just that this game, as @LSH says, probably favors the Wildcats.

@LSH

The challenge for Doke on Saturday will be defending without fouling. All of Villanova's big men can play away from the basket, so Doke is going to have to be disciplined, or he will pick up cheap fouls away from the basket. Villanova inverts their offense quite a bit, with their PG (Brunson) often posting up while their big guys shoot threes. Most college teams don't have an answer for that. That's a matchup that will be different for KU.

Doke really is the key because Villanova can't handle him physically on offense, but I am not sure who he can guard on defense because both Spellman and Paschall play on the perimeter offensively. Both are capable three point shooters - Paschall hits 33%, having made 31 on the year, while Spellman has hit nearly 45%, making 62 threes on the season. It's no fluke for either of those guys to take and make a three or two during a game. They also can put it on the floor, so Doke will have to slide with them when they drive and not just sell out on shot fakes, where he risks picking up bad fouls.

Whichever team can enforce their will in that matchup probably wins the game.

I figure since we have the recruiting threads and the transfer threads, this one needs to get going as well.

So far, the following players have declared:

• DeAndre Ayton, C, Arizona, freshman | 7-0, 250

• Marvin Bagley III, F, Duke, freshman | 6-11, 234

• Mo Bamba, C, Texas, freshman | 6-11, 225

• Michael Porter Jr., F, Missouri, freshman | 6-10, 215

• Trae Young, G, Oklahoma, freshman | 6-2, 180

• Miles Bridges, G/F, Michigan State, sophomore | 6-7, 225

• Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M, sophomore | 6-10, 241

• Keita Bates-Diop, F, Ohio State, junior | 6-7, 235

• Aaron Holiday, G, UCLA, junior | 6-1, 185

• Anfernee Simons, SG, IMG Academy | 6-3, 181

• Justin Jackson, F, Maryland, sophomore | 6-7, 225

• Rawle Alkins, G, Arizona, sophomore | 6-5, 220

• LiAngelo Ball, SG, BC Vytautas (Lithuania) | 6-5, 215

• Landry Shamet, G, Wichita State, junior | 6-4, 179

And these are the guys that have declared, but have not signed with an agent (AKA testing the waters):

• Bruce Brown Jr., G, Miami, sophomore | 6-5, 190

• Melvin Frazier, SG/SF, Tulane, junior | 6-6, 200

• Jalen Hudson, G, Florida, junior | 6-6, 192

• Josh Okogie, G, Georgia Tech, sophomore | 6-4, 213

• Jarrey Foster, G, SMU, junior | 6-6, 220

• Kostas Antetokounmpo, PF, Dayton, redshirt freshman | 6-10, 197

• Allonzo Trier, G, Arizona, junior | 6-5, 205

• Lindell Wigginton, G, Iowa State, freshman | 6-2, 188

• Demajeo Wiggins, F, Bowling Green, junior | 6-10, 240

• Robert Franks, F, Washington State, junior | 6-7, 240

• Jalen McDaniels, F, San Diego State, freshman | 6-10, 195

• Tyler Cook, F, Iowa, sophomore | 6-9, 255

• Jon Davis, G, Charlotte, junior | 6-3, 195

Most of the guys on the second list (the testing the waters group) will likely be back in school next year. The only exceptions I think are Allonzo Trier because of the situation at Arizona and maybe Kostas Antetokounmpo (younger brother of Giannis Antetokounmpo), although most scouts say he is "far from ready." He may also head back to Europe, where his other brother (Thanasis) is playing after a brief stint in the NBA.

With the surprise Shamet declaration, Wichita State will be shopping the transfer market hard. Arizona probably will as well, though its hard to see why a big name guy with other opportunities might go there.

Once the tournament is over, I am sure we will see a few other declarations (deadline to declare is about 3 weeks from now - April 22). Then the musical chairs really starts.

I keep saying that the NBA is going to move more towards its own development model mimicking the European system we see in soccer. Bazley isn't opening the floodgates here, but this is going to become an option. It's been in the pipeline for a while now and will just continue to expand.

Awesome that she will have a chance to make it. That really will be the trip of a lifetime for her.

@FarmerJayhawk

That's a done deal then, because Newman at least is going, and Vick may as well.

Landry Shamet declared for the draft today, so I can't see Newman not declaring next week once the season is over.

Langford is an elite level talent. From a talent perspective, its difficult to compare him to Vick. Obviously, Vick has the experience edge, but Langford is incredibly talented and could likely make up that experience gap.

Next year's team likely struggles a bit early on because they have to integrate a lot of new pieces. The good thing is that it looks like everyone can probably fit together from a basketball perspective. There's not a lot of overlapping skills and preferences that could cause guys to get in each others' way.

It took Newman most of the season to figure out how to be most effective because he needed time to work with Doke and everyone else on where people would be. Notice how his drives early in the season seemed to be into very congested spots, but now he seems to be driving into open space? That's getting used to where people go, how they cut, etc. There was a play in the Duke game where Svi cut baseline and Malik found him for a perfect reverse layup. Early in the season, Malik either drives too early and gets cut off, or Svi cuts to early and the timing isn't there. Now, that play works out perfectly because Malik arrives in the lane at the same time Svi is making his cut. If either one is half a beat off, that play isn't there. It may not result in a turnover, but it certainly doesn't result in an easy layup.

That takes time. That takes repetitions. That takes familiarity, which can be achieved by March, but won't be there in November/December.

Here's the weird thing about Vick - even though we have complained about his consistency, Vick has seen his numbers improve from last season, both overall and on a rate basis, with the exception of FT shooting.

He's better across the board, particularly on his 2 pt shooting, where he's at 56%. True shooting is up 2%. Effective FG% is up 4%. Defensive rebounding % is up 1.5%. Offensive rebounding % is up 0.3%. He's nearly doubled his assist %, while cutting half a percent off his turnover %. All the while, his usage is up 3 points.

Defensively he has taken a bit of a step back, but part of that could also be that this KU team isn't great defensively, which drags each individual's numbers down.

Does that make him an NBA draft pick? I don't know. But I think it shows that he can play in the NBA.

Langford is waiting to see a couple of things.

1) What happens with grad transfers
2) What happens with guys and the NBA

I don't know what Vick is going to do at this point. I'm really not sure what he should do.

If KU wins the title, Newman probably has to leave. With the tournament he's had, he almost has to go. Even if they don't win it, Newman has shown something this month that may mean he needs to go. He was an elite talent coming out of HS. He has gotten back to that elite level. His efficiency has exploded, and he's done all of this while averaging fewer than 1.5 turnovers per game, and his rebounding numbers are up.

Every important stat is up from his year at MSU - FG%, PPG, FT%, 3PT%, REB, STL, TO - Malik has become a better all around player, and now his scoring is back to the level a lot of people envisioned when he was coming out of HS (averaged 30 a game in HS). Let's not forget that he was better than Devin Booker coming out of HS. He has shown the handle and shooting stroke, along with a renewed commitment on the defensive end, that could get him paid this year.