@Crimsonorblue22 said:
Assist count?
19 points and 6 assists. However, I think tournament results count???
DCHawker
4842 posts
Yet another transition bucket surrendered...
Same issue with transition defense as the beginning of the first half....
@RockChalkinTexas said:
@dylans Got to defend Forte and not let him get open. Once he starts.........
You called it...
Graham has forced 3 or 4 plays...
We scored 1 point in the last 3-4 minutes. 10-1 run by them. Looking sharp for a long time and then really sloppy...
Didn't we just have a 12 point lead a minute ago???
3 or 4 sloppy possessions in a row and 3 points left at the FT line and we let them creep back in...
Svi back in for 10 seconds and picks up a STUPID foul - his third...
DG just doesn't shake and bake and finish as well as Frank.
Transition defense was bad the first few minutes, but we've tightened up. Also, tracking Forte and Evans on the perimeter pretty well.
@Crimsonorblue22 Svi has 2, one each for JJ, LL and CB
Only one shot total from Evans and Forte so far - but Evans already has 6 assists and Carroll is killing us....
@Bwag I like that Self is going at least a few minutes with 2 bigs...
JJ and Frank should both have 20+ this game....
With the pace of this game, HCBS may need to give a few more bench minutes than usual...
This game seems headed for the 80s or 90s....
Good to see one go in for Svi - let's hope that gives him some confidence....
@jaybate-1.0 said:
You two crack me up!
Appearance of Entertainment Values in Seeding--reported comments by UCinn HC Mick Cronin and SIU HC Barry Hinson.
Appearance of Recruiting Asymmetry-reported comments of Louisville HC Rick Pitino
Appearance of Recruiting Asymmetry and Whistle Asymmetry in Tourney--Reported comments of UW HC Bo Ryan
Go FIND the links!!!
Next.
Howling!
Because they said it, it must be fact - proof positive - incontrovertible. Of course, they offered just about as much evidence as you do. Howling indeed, 'Bate!
I don't have to find the links because I'm aware of what they said and the context (except for Hinson - clearly one of the deans of the profession at a nationally relevant basketball powerhouse).
Cronin complains about tournament pairings/seedings being driven by ratings. Well, it is true that before a change in bracketing principles a couple of years ago there were typically a handful of one-line seed adjustments to avoid conference foes playing one another before the Sweet 16. Those bracketing principles were revised and I don't believe there have been any such seed line adjustments the past couple of years (but, I will acknowledge that I don't know that for a fact).
Ryan bitched about the refereeing immediately after the title game loss to Duke - specifically in reference to that game. While there were bad calls on both sides in that game, it was 2 key Duke players - Okafor and Winslow - that had to sit most of the first half because of foul trouble. In the same post-game interview, Ryan also said Wisconsin didn't do "rent-a-player" - he was roundly criticized at the time for sore-loser comments. I don't recall him saying anything else about "recruiting asymmetry and whistle asymmetry" in any other context, but perhaps you have read dozens of such statements by him and will provide all of those links for the assembled masses.
As to Pitino, he's your character witness about recruiting - really???? It's just rich that the coach who oversaw the Cardinal Escort Service would complain about "recruiting asymmetry". He did go on a rant once about the influence of shoe companies - I also agree that it is unfortunate - but it was pointed out to him that Louisville has always had players with different AAU/shoeco ties. And, he was subsequently quoted as saying that if you do your homework, shoe companies don't matter.
Howling, indeed, 'Bate.....
@chriz Well, he does say that he expects UNC to beat Duke tomorrow AND win the ACC tourney. Doesn't say whether that would be good enough alone, or he DOESN'T think think KU or Villanova will win out. Clearly, UNC would be a #1 seed if they win out. As he noted, an ACC team has had a #1 seed in 12 of the past 13 years. If UNC, KU and Villanova all win out, then I don't think UNC will have the number 1 overall seed. Keep in mind that Lunardi, for all the attention he gets from ESPN, is no better than an middle of the pack bracket predictor.
@HighEliteMajor Even with the narrower question - KU's or UConn's tournament resume only since 1999 - like @jayhawkfantoo I would have to hedge. Would I prefer 4 titles rather than 1? Of course. But, I do like the fact that we are in the tournament with a high seed and the potential to win it all every year. We have high expectations, not just to get to a Final Four, but win it all in most years. That's a high class problem, as they say. Missing the tournament altogether 5 times and having zero expectation of advancing past the first weekend in others; not sure I find that particularly enticing.
Having said that, the conventional wisdom, which I mostly ascribe to, is that national championships matter most when "ranking" programs over the arc of basketball history. Does anyone think Arizona is one of the top all time programs because they previously held the longest appearance streak? No. Does UCLA's 13 consecutive conference titles compare in any way, shape or form to the 11 national titles? No. What 3 additional titles would do or would have done is significantly elevate KU in the court of public opinion/conventional wisdom. More titles than Duke and UNC, more than UConn and Indiana. Behind only UK and UCLA - and much more historical significance overall than the latter.
Personally, I would rather not have to trade. One more title is big - two more would be huge. Let's go get 'em.....
@autohawk said:
@DCHawker I don't think location/seeding was the culprit. do you think is was that we've(b-12) have been overrated or not prepared?
Well, as reflected in this thread, there a various theories regarding the B12's poor performance relative to other major conferences and especially with regard to seed expectations. As I've noted elsewhere, I think it is primarily a function of a talent gap - breadth and depth of NBA-level talent - although that begs the question of why that talent deficit might exist.
From KU's perspective, as opposed to the entire conference, I think part of the issue is that for 3 months, I don't think KU gets the opportunities and challenges of matching up against as many other Final Four/E8 caliber teams as is the case year in and year out with the top of the ACC (Duke-UNC-Louisville plus even UVA, Syracuse, FSU and Notre Dame) with very different styles.
With regard to the conference as a whole, I do think we are "overrated" from the standpoint of the benefits gained from having no really bad teams in the conference and for the most part avoiding bad losses during the non-conference schedule - which results in high SOS and RPI. But, that SHOULD cut the other way - if B12 are getting higher seeds than is probably warranted (which I think is the case), then B12 teams should be facing even weaker, lower seeded teams. The problem is that we've had several 2-5 seeded teams not get out of the first weekend - losing to lower seeded opponents.
Since B12 teams do have the worst tournament W-L record over the past 3 years of the major conferences, and an even worse record relative to seed expectation, I guess one could argue that almost definitionally we have been overrated.
But, again the reasons for the poor performance will continue to be debated. I lean more to talent and butterfly wings than some of the other more fanciful stuff postulated, but everyone is entitled to their own delusions..... :wink:
@kjayhawks It is losing the first weekend (often to lower seeded teams) that has killed the B12's tournament record. Major conference comparisons over the past 3 years according to CBSSports (recognizing it may be fake data and with no commentary on the causes):
ACC - 42-18
B10 - 30-20
SEC - 21-11
P12 - 20-17
BE - 16-14
B12 - 20-21
More teams in than any other conference during that time, but only one with a losing record. And, way below expected wins based on seed.
Last year the B12 was 9-7 -- let's hope we can improve on that this year.....
@jaybate-1.0 Come on 'Bate - I know you can do better than that. I'm counting on you. You have a fascinating hypothesis that KU's and the B12's underperformance is the result of whistle and seeding asymmetry. You may well be on to something. But, don't give us verbiage - give us some facts. I'm sure the truth - the data - is out there to support your hypothesis. Do some spade work - go find it - I'm counting on you!!!
I'm sure the evidence will show that during the tournament (in contrast to the non-conference season, of course), KU and B12 teams have consistently had fewer free throw attempts than their opponents - esp. when those opponents are from the Eastern time zone or wear a certain shoe brand. I'll bet you will find that KU and B12 have consistently had to travel further to tournament sites than teams in other conferences - their hotels have probably been further away from the arena, as well - contributing to tire legs and poor shooting percentages from deep. I'm sure you can do a regression analysis to show that the B12 teams have been consistently under-seeded relative to their statistical metrics meaning that they've had to face tougher teams. I'm highly confident that you will find that the B12's poor W-L in the tournament is indeed highly asymmetric - they have a winning record against small TV market teams, but a losing record against major TV market teams - esp. those in the Eastern time zone.
I realize my explanation of inferior talent - based on NBA performance - is sadly lame and is as much a symptom as it is cause. You definitely have the more compelling hypothesis - so I'm counting on you to find the data that supports - I know it's out there - go find it 'Bate!!!! You can do this....
@jaybate-1.0 said:
@DCHawker I appreciate your effort, but wouldnt your "explanation" require a vastly greater array of assumptions and statistical improbabilities and complexity as precondition than my hypothesis of simple entertainment values driving seeding and whistle asymmetry against B12 team's chances for success? My hypothesis is so very simple . and elegant. Yours requires such improbable underlying randomness on a consistent basis producing a recurrent pattern over a long period! It's just hard for me to believe that randomness in the face of such variation and.complexity can produce the bias of outcomes you attribute to the B12.
Seems that we've been down this path before.... :smirk: An "elegant" hypotheses supported by..... nada, zip, zilch - with another hypothesis supported by at least a modicum of facts. You've challenged me in the past - will do the same to you. Analyze the facts - give some data to support your hypothesis - anything.... Foul discrepancies in games that B12 teams have lost in the tournament. Shoeco comparisons in those games. TV market size comparisons of the two teams.... anything. I bet it is out there - go get it!!!
@jaybate-1.0 There has been asymmetry in seeding - B12 teams apparently have routinely been over-seeded - the conference has consistently under-performed its seed expectations. The selection committee appears to have bought in to the regular season conference rankings and rewarded B12 teams with high seeds - which, disappointingly, they fail to live up to.
Perhaps there is a simpler explanation for the bias - lack of top tier and depth of talent. Just one data point, but I believe there have been just 4 B12 players that have made an all-NBA team over the past decade (that includes 1st, 2nd and 3rd team) - Durant, Griffin, Aldridge and Pierce (and the latter was about a decade ago). Maybe Wiggs, Embid and Jackson can change that, but hasn't happened yet. UK has at least 5 itself. But that suggests that Self at least has done a lot more with lesser talent - although still the best breadth and depth of talent in the B12 - I believe KU has the 4th most 1st round draft choices over the past several years.
@HighEliteMajor Sad, but true. In fact, the B12's performance is even more distressing than that. As you note, the ACC, Big East, SEC and Pac 12 all have multiple titles since 1990 (and each with multiple teams winning). 5 teams have more titles than the entire B12 conference during that span - the 4 you note plus Florida. The lowly B10 matches us with just one national title during that time frame. However, in contrast to the B12, where KU is the ONLY team that has reached a championship game during that time, the B10 had 6 runner-ups in addition to the one titleist - with 5 different teams - Michigan, Michigan St., Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State.
The B12 is a VERY solid conference from top to bottom - the worst teams in the B12 this year are better than the bottom teams in other conferences. And, that has arguably been true for the past couple of years (esp. now with the influx of coaching talent). But we don't come close to matching the top tier talent of the other power conferences year in and year out.
The argument that the tournament is a crap-shoot is a cop-out excuse. Over 25+ years, there is a lot of data and the randomness factor falls away. Sure, the very best team doesn't win every year - but one of the very best does with rare exception (perhaps excluding the 2 recent UConn champs and maybe Arizona in '97 (but they had real NBA talent).
The bottom line is that of the power conferences, the B12 has the fewest titles (tied), the worst W-L record (by far), the fewest different teams in the title game and Final Four. Performance has been especially poor over the past decade (last year was one of the best in many years). It's not hating - but there is no reason to sugar coat it either. Unless and until the conference wins the big one, and with someone other than just KU (fine with that ONLY if they don't beat us to get there), the overrated label will stick....
Svi is a puzzlement. He's not cold - he's Artic (and that's before global warming). Over the past 5 games, he is shooting 5-25 from the field; 3-18 from 3 point range. A high of 6 points during that stretch. More disconcerting, he isn't contributing anything else when he is in there - a total of 2 assists in 5 games. Last night, no assists and no rebounds - when you are 6-8, that is hard to do. And, as several posters have noted in other game threads, he has appeared lost on defense - out of position and in no-man's land on multiple occasions. I don't know the reasons for the disappearing act, but I would feel a lot better about our post-season chances if he could somehow return to being at least somewhat productive when he is on the floor....
@HawkChamp Where????
@Bwag said:
@globaljaybird said:
@Bwag Was simply a train wreck for 33 minutes.
Good thing games are at least 40 minutes...and some time more, right WVU?
We've certainly demonstrated that we can turn it one and come back, but that's a high wire act doing that every game. Got hot and ended up shooting 50% from the field, but we were below 35% most of the game. 19 TOs. 7th straight game where Svi hasn't contributed. Just think if we could actually pull it all together for a stretch of games!!!
Awfully glad for Frank and Landen that we pulled this out. Super happy for them. Frank has had one of the great senior seasons at KU. Good for him!
@DanR said:
BIFM has 21
Right on his averages - also 5 assists. Not a good start, but finishing strong!
So, we had 37 points in the first 28 minutes. 27 now in the last the last 8 minutes....
@Crimsonorblue22 said:
D is key
Both are key!!! Finally some energy and execution. But, we dug a deep hole... Have to keep climbing....
@DanR said:
We were down 14 against a GOOD team (WVU) with 2:43 left, and I still thought we had a shot at that game. This one is FAR from over with 12 minutes left
Agree, but the point is that there is really no excuse to be in this position. OU is NOT good - and, they're not exactly shooting lights out...34% from the field and 27% from 3. This is all on us.
37 points in almost 28 minutes - really??? So, I guess the good news is that we're still on track to score more than UNC did tonight. Oh right, that was at least against a 20 win team with one of the best defenses in the country....
Come on on guys... It's not like nothing is at stake. A loss to a 10-18 team at home would definitely imperil a #1 seed - and it should. Especially if it's backed up by a loss in Stillwater or in the B12 tourney. We can stand a loss at OSU or in the tourney and still lock-in a #1 seed, but this would be just BADDDDDDDDD. No other prospective #1 seed would have a loss that is close to comparable....
The point is, WAKE UP. This game matters....
Okay, Svi now better line than Tyler....
6th TO for JJ.... More TOs than points right now...
Fun fact at half time - Tyler has a better line than Svi. Both zeros across the board except Tyler has only one foul and Svi has two.....
HCBS seemed pretty sanguine about things at the half, but 28 points at the half against OU? 35% shooting at home? 53% from FT line. 11 TOs. Missed bunnies? Don't we want to be getting past some of those issues heading into the post-season? Can we just flip the switch and turn it on when it counts the most???
We have almost as many TOs in the first half as we did the whole game in Morgantown....
@Bwag I'm good at pine time....Too old and slow for the floor these days....