I have been saying over the course of the past three months that the 2018 team will have as good of a shot at a title as any in the past six years, if the players contribute in expected ways. The balance should be as good as it was in 2011 and 2008. We have speed, length, shot blocking and post presence.
But some people just have hurdles placed in their lives, for whatever reason, that are a major factor in preventing success. I'm sure we all know of someone that has such challenges, as we all most likely have those as well. For one William Self, the elite eight is the bane of his existence. He even admitted as such this past year prior to the Oregon game that it is the hardest round of the tournament.
The truth is, that statement proves everything I have thought for years - Bill Self gets a little tight. You might not be able to see it from your sofa hundreds of miles away, but the team in shootaround, the locker room and the pre game meal is feeling it. Bill thinks it is the hardest round, therefore it is.
I don't know how much longer Bill is going to be around at KU. Will he coach till he is 65? 70? I wouldn't bet on it. Squandered isn't the right word, but three or four really good chances at bringing home the university's fourth or even fifth title have been squandered. Coincidentally, with exception of 2010 (hard to count 2013), every one of those teams has fallen in the "hardest round". And its always the same reason, right? "We just shot poorly" is the reason given, almost without a second thought.
But the analytical watcher and one who has given time to reflect on all this will pose the question: is there a correlation amongst all these elite eight losses? Is it possible that there really is pressure on Bill and he, perhaps unwittingly, passes it on to the team? How do teams with multiple great shooters all of a sudden become terrible? And no, despite opinions that shooting comes and goes in short periods of time in rather dramatic fashion (don't want to mention names but his profile reads Jaybate), I have a very hard time believing it. As a shooter in high school myself, who, not to brag but I was regarded as perhaps the best at my 4A school by an assistant coach, did not experience such a phenomenon as described by some, I whole heartedly dismiss such flimsy conjectures on the point. A sample size of various teams over the course of ten years, coupled with those teams also experiencing the lowest scoring output of their respective years, proves that these occurrences all have one thing in common - Bill Self. The only year where I would say it was more than nerves or it was some other cause would be against Villanova, as in a one possession we had, IIRC, six more turnovers than them, which is a significant amount.
I love having Bill here and I don't want to see him leave. BUT, he has to figure this out. He needs to figure out what went well in the 2012 elite eight game and try to improve things this next year.
From the looks of things, KU will be at the top for the third year in a row. I believe Arizona, WSU, KU, Michigan State and maybe some other team will prove to be the best teams this coming year. I like our chances once again and I think that Bill will eventually sort this out. He is too smart and cunning to let this go on forever. But if he doesnt, maybe its time a player, like a Devonte Graham who has plenty of moxy, puts the team on his back and says "I'm tired of losing in the elite eight and we're going to make it this year to the final four." Devonte has the Ryan Boatwright/Kemba Walker/Shabazz Napier court attitude. I've been saying this for a while now. People around on other boards have said that Devonte is just a good senior player, nothing more. But like dragonslayer pointed out a few months ago, Devonte is the real key to March. We saw how good he was leading up to the Oregon game, and how brilliant he was against Purdue.
This year's team has all the pieces, if it can put them together. We have senior leadership, capable scorers, shooters, decent depth in the post and a seven footer that isn't going to let someone like Jordan Bell own the paint. Because of Dok, I think our team defense should also reflect his shot blocking prowess and rim protection, but we still need better perimeter defense. Last year, Svi and Devonte were probably the worst we had and they will be counted on to perform. If they don't guard well, it doesn't matter who is back waiting at the rim. It puts the team in a bad decision when there are breakdowns one on one and can lead to foul trouble for both forwards and guards. Hopefully someone on the team noticed this glaring problem from last year and they have been working on it all summer. We'll see in a few months.