I believe you post is spot on.
Smart has milked that magical run for all it is worth and he has not shown that he can duplicate it, even in his own not-so-major conference. His frantic style of play has won the tournament only once (Arkansas) a long time ago when it was so new that coaches did not know what to expect and after that it has not done much of anything...ask Mike Anderson how it has worked out for him.
Marshal would have been a much better choice but he has one year left of really good playersat WSU and he probably saw that Texas will never support BBall the way the do FBall, as shown by all those empty seat even when KU comes to town; in some games, the arena is not even one third filled. Also, I believe the current arena is scheduled to be torn down and a new one built so the next year or two they might be playing in make shift location which not conductive to recruiting or getting fan interest. Marshall is aiming for big name BBall program.