@JayHawkFanToo
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There is missing picks in the draft, and then there is literally not producing a single pro baseball player with your first pick since 2007.
You also have to take into consideration that Dayton had scouting notes from Braves scouts still when he first got here and hit on Hos, Moose and Montgomery. But two years removed from the Braves organization and he hasn't produced a single Major League player that is still with the ball club today. You say that it is hard to hit on picks. But 21 of 30 teams have been able to hit on their first pick in a draft since 2009 and still keep that player on their team today. 15 teams have hit on two or more players who are still on their team. 4 of the 9 teams that have not hit on a pick actually have winning records, but mainly from major trades that have stocked their farm system even more or they are the Yankees. (Who hit on Judge in the compensatory part of round 1, so I did not count him). Jose Fernandez's death is the reason the Marlins do not have one. I'll let you look at the data below:
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In the graft below, I put together an overlaying graph that shows a pretty good correlation between hitting on draft picks and current wins this season. As you can see below, there are a few outliers. But for the most part, if teams hit on their first picks, they typically are winning more games.
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As you can see, the Royals have not hit on anyone. That means they are not developing talent as well as their peers. They are missing on the draft more than their peers. And their current record shows exactly that.
I'm very confident that I could do the same thing with teams carrying dead money and results would come out similar. Meaning, the Royals are also not utilizing their payroll EVERY year.
Pos Name Salary
C Salvy 8,700,000.00
CF Cain 13,000,000.00
1B Hos 21,000,000.00
3B Moose 5,500,000.00
4OF Dyson 3,750,000.00
SS Esky 2,500,000.00
LF Gordo 20,000,000.00
DH Bonifacio 561,900.00
2B Merrifield 569,500.00
RF Myers 4,500,000.00
SP Duffy 14,000,000.00
LR Junis 554,250.00
CL Herrera 3,456,625.00
SU Finnegan 577,500.00
SP Odorizzi 6,300,000.00
SP Montgomery 611,250.00
SP Lamb 545,000.00
SP Manaea 550,000.00
Total 106,676,025.00
Teams Total WAR Players
Arizona 24.6 AJ Pollock 19.6 WAR Archie Bradley 5.0 WAR
Atlanta 0 None
Baltimore 36.2 Dylan Bundy 6.4 WAR Manny Machado 29.8 WAR
Boston 7.1 Matt Barnes 1.9 WAR Andrew Benintendi 5.2 WAR
Chicago Cubs 38.3 Javy Baez 8 WAR Albert Almora 3.7 WAR Kris Bryant 21.4 WAR Kyle Schwarber 3.3 WAR Ian Happ 1.9 WAR
Chicago White Sox 5.3 Tim Anderson 5.3 WAR
Cincinnati Reds 0 None
Cleveland Indians 21.8 Francisco Lindor 20.4 WAR Tyler Naquin 1.4 WAR
Colorado Rockies 19.2 Tyler Anderson 5.8 WAR David Dahl 1.2 WAR Jon Gray 5.8 WAR Kyle Freeland 6.4 WAR
Detroit 0 None
Houston 46.5 George Springer 18.5 WAR Carlos Correa 19.5 WAR Alex Bregman 8.5 WAR
Kansas City 0 None
LA Dogers 14.8 Corey Seager 13.7 WAR Walker Buehler 1.1 WAR
LA Angles 60.7 Mike Trout 60.7 WAR
Miami 0 None (Jose Fernandez Death)
Milwuakee 0 None
Minnesota 14.4 Kyle Gibson 7.4 WAR Byron Buxton 7.0 WAR
NY Met 10.6 Brandon Nimmo 3.5 WAR Michael Conforto 7.1 WAR
NY Yankees 0 None
Philly 10.3 JP Crawford .7 WAR Aaron Nola 9.6 WAR
Oakland 7.5 Matt Chapman 7.5 WAR
Pittsburg 0.3 Austin Meadows .3 WAR
Seattle 5.7 Mike Zuzino 5.7 WAR
San Diego 4.9 Cory Spangenberg 2.9 WAR Hunter Renfroe 2.0 WAR
Tampa Bay 0 None
San Francisco Giants 8.9 Joe Panik 7.1 WAR Chris Stratton 1.8 WAR
Texas 0 None
St. Louis 25.5 Shelby Miller 9.2 WAR Kolten Wong 8.6 WAR Michael Wacha 7.4 WAR Luke Weaver .3 WAR
Toronto 10.1 Marcus Stroman 10.1 WAR
Washington 70.9 Stephen Strasburg 26.1 WAR Bryce Harper 26.6 WAR Anthony Rendon 18.2 WAR