With Perry having a torn patellar tendon, it sounds like there's a possibility his basketball career is over.
While Perry is recovering, I wouldn't be surprised if Self gives him some kind of support role within the program this year to get a head start on on a coaching career in case his playing career is over.
I'm wondering how much Perry's injury played into this. These guys have pro contracts outside of this tournament and I'm wondering if they backed off after Perry's injury to preserve themselves for the professional teams.
I gotta stop watching, Self Made can't make anything while I'm watching.
@BeddieKU23 Barnes is one of the few coaches with a win in AFH though. Barnes was also one of 3 teams to beat KU in their title season. While this game shouldn't be too close, Rick Barnes is a good coach capable of stealing a game.
@FarmerJayhawk They're are definitive in anyway, but those numbers are useful for gauging progress. Agbaji at 27% is concerning because he was only at 30% last year. That's an indicator that his 3 point shooting may still be in Marcus Garrett territory.
Dotson being at 45%, but with low attempt numbers, is a sign that he needs to create more opportunities for himself from 3 because he has the abilities to be a dead eye shooter from deep.
Silvio and McCormack having 4 attempts between them is a sign the neither has the range to take that shot yet. That is a sign that KU is going to have to get much better at ball movement than they were last season to create good shots for players.
With Wilson and McBride, Wilson looks like he won't be a great shooter right away, could be the one big capable of spacing the floor and opening driving lanes for the guards. McBride looks like he won't have much issue adjusting to the deeper line and could potentially be the most consistent shooter on the team.
While I agree nothing is definitive with these numbers, there is definitely some usefulness to them to give some insight into where the players are at.
The ceiling for this team is a national title contender. That's assuming everything goes well. That said, there's legitimate issues this team will have to overcome to reach their ceiling. Some of those issues are within the players control and some are not.
Team chemistry absolutely should be better this year without Vick in the mix. The counterpoint is we don't know yet how well Isaiah Moss will fit in on the court with this group yet because he's still finishing up academic stuff at Iowa. This is a question because Moss is the one newcomer who will be playing big time minutes this year and potentially be a starter for this team.
The next issue is shooting. Bill Self did a great job of bringing in players who can develop into great shooters. That's great for the future, but doesn't necessarily help with the upcoming season though. @BShark posted some stats from the scrimmages this summer and while not definitive in any way, can give some insight into progress being made. Dotson appears to have some gains, Silvio and Dave don't have three point range (I'll touch more on that later), Agbaji looks like he's still struggling from deep, McBride could earn some quality minutes with his shooting. Overall, with the three point line being scooted back, it looks like this team may be slightly better from deep than last year, but still nothing to brag about.
I mentioned Dave and Silvio's lack of shooting from outside, this is critical because it means neither really needs to be guarded closely outside of about 10'. That means opposing post defenders will be able clog driving lanes more effectively which will significantly hurt Devon, Ochai, and Garrett. Their effectiveness on offense is predicated by their abilities to drive into the paint. With those driving lanes clogged, the offense could actually take a step back this year because last year, Lawson was at least good enough from 3 that teams had to respect him out there. That doesn't appear to be the case with Silvio or McCormack at this point. I've said it before but, I'll say it again, this is a team that's going to play a lot of games in the 60's this season because of their offense.
The next area is defense. On paper, this appears to be the area where KU will make the biggest gains from last season. The combination of Doke, Silvio, and McCormack anchoring the paint is going to make life in the paint very difficult for a lot of teams. The concern with those 3 defensively is rebounding. Silvio is an above average rebounder so there shouldn't be an issues there, but Doke and Dave are not. Doke is a below average rebounder for his size and McCormack is just bad at rebounding for his size. Each are still doing a lot work on their bodies, so there is hope in that regard, but I wouldn't expect dramatic changes out of either of them though.
On the perimeter, the 4 guys who should get most of the minutes are all above average to elite defenders. Marcus Garrett is the best defender in the Big 12, end of discussion. Devon Dotson has the abilities to be an all-Big 12 defender. Moss and Agbaji are also both above average defenders. On paper, this is the best defensive team Self has had since the 2012 runner up team.
Those are all the things this team can control, the one thing they can't control and is the most concerning to me is health. Health is the one thing that can quickly derail everything this team has worked for (as we saw last season) and there legitimate reasons to worry about the health of this team.
Doke has never played a full season. We can say the wrist injuries were flukes and they sort of were, but Doke is definitely not the only person to get his hand caught in something and most people come away unscathed. Doke hasn't twice now. Doke also missed the B12 tournament in 2018 because of knee issues. Doke is a very large human being and for being as young as he is, his muscles, joints, tendons, and ligaments don't seem strong enough yet to support his frame. Doke making it through the season healthy is probably the single biggest individual factor in determining how far this Kansas team can go in the NCAA tournament.
That said, Doke isn't the only player whose health is a concern going forward. Marcus Garrett said in the middle of the Summer that he still wasn't a 100% from his high ankle sprain last year. Being brutally honest, if Garrett lost some quickness because of this and loses some of his defensive abilities, he very quickly becomes a pretty useless player to Kansas.
The other player with injury concerns is Ochai Agbaji. Are his shin issues chronic or a one time deal? If they are chronic and he loses his athleticism, he essentially falls into the same category as Garrett because Agbaji's game is based on his athleticism. Without his athleticism, he's not anything special.
Again, this ceiling of this team is national championship contender, but there are hurdles this team will have to clear to reach that ceiling and some of those hurdles are ones KU cannot control.
Looks like Agbaji hasn't made much progress on his outside shooting this offseason.
@FarmerJayhawk He's not young for his class though. He's the normal age for his class. Young for his class would be a Svi or a Doke who were so young, neither were eligible to be a OAD. Each had to be a KU two years before being eligible to even declare for the NBA draft. Tristan doesn't face that hurdle, he's eligible to declare for the NBA draft if he chose to do so.
It's not semantics because Tristan isn't young for the class he's in. He's young within his class. There's a big difference there. The kids that enter college at 19 are doing so because almost all of them had some issue that forced them to be held back a year at some point. That's not normal.
@FarmerJayhawk Where your wrong is saying Tristan won't 19 until his sophomore year. That is a false statement. Tristan's sophomore year will not begin until the fall 2020 semester and he will be 19 by that point.
Your initial comments on the matter were putting Tristan in the same category as Svi or Doke who each entered college and played their freshmen seasons as 17 year olds.
@FarmerJayhawk Oak Hill is a is prep school unless their own website's description of the school is false. So Dave did go to a prep school. The reason Oak Hill grew into a basketball factory is because they don't have to worry about their students meeting NCAA eligibility requirements because their academics far surpass a lot of prep school's out there.
"Since 1878, Oak Hill Academy has transformed the lives of hundreds of unmotivated students. In the heart of the beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains, our small, co-ed, college preparatory boarding school combines structure with self-reliance, discipline with discovery, and a firm hand with a warm heart. Our curriculum challenges the brightest students and encourages those who are unmotivated or experiencing difficulty in their current school setting. Our structured and relational environment is the opportunity for students to redefine themselves in very positive ways. Attending Oak Hill is a turning point."
Very simply, let's pretend Tristan isn't an athlete a d is just a regular student like 99% of the people at KU are. KU's academic year begins with the fall semester around Labor Day and ends with the second summer session in July. A traditional freshman student will turn 19 some time between those start and end dates. Since Tristan Enaruna will be 19 before the fall 2020 semester begins, he is in the correct academic class for his age group. He is among the youngest in his age group, but he is still in the correct academic year for his age group.
@FarmerJayhawk Tristan is not entering college a year early. This is a case where you have to know what the rules and laws are when it comes to enrolling kids in school and that varies from state to state. Everywhere has a specific date that's used to determine when kids start school. It is typically one of two dates, either August 1 or September 1. Academic years typically begin in August or September and run through the conclusion of summer sessions. Tristan Enaruna will turn 19 before the start of his sophomore year which would be next August/September depending on when classes start at KU. Tristan Enaruna is one of the youngest players in the class, he's not young for the class. Tristan is not in the same category as Svi who did skip a grade and enrolled at KU a year earlier than normal.
In the case of Josh Jackson's age, he did begin college at 19. Jackson was 1 year and 4 months older than Tristan Enaruna when Jackson started college. Josh Jackson failed 8th grade, that's why he began college at 19 despite not going to prep school. Had John Jackson not failed 8th grade and graduated on time, he would've been 4 months older than Enaruna is when he started college.
Devon Dotson is a year older than most because of Illinois and how their education system worked at the time. I know Dotson graduated school in North Carolina, but he lived in Illinois when he started school and that's the relevant part to why he's older. Prior to 2014, the mandatory enrollment age for children in Illinois was when the child turned 7 between September 1 and August 31.
In the case of David McCormack, he did go to prep school (Oak Hill) so that's simple enough to explain his age.
All 3 of those players were one academic year older than most entering college for 3 different reasons. One failed, one lived in a state with a later enrollment age than most states, and one was a prep school kid.
So no, Tristan Enaruna is not entering college a year early like Svi did.
Two years from now, KU's starting line up is probably Issac McBride, DaJuan Harris, Tristan Enaruna, Jalen Wislon, and David McCormack.
@FarmerJayhawk Tristan isn't younger than most freshmen. Most freshmen, including athletes, enter college at 18. The only freshmen he's a year young than are the players who went the prep school route to boost their grades or exposure. He's young for the grade level, but not for being a freshman.
Looking at his videos, I also call BS on him having a 7-1 wingspan. He's at most a +2" in wingspan from his height. Only way he has a 7-1 wing span would be if he had short legs and he definitely doesn't have short legs, he's got long legs. Every HS scouting report on Tristan lists length as being average. That means there's no way he's +4" or +5" in wingspan from his height.
With a different roster composition, Tristan could be a stretch 4, but with Jalen Wilson in the mix, Self won't play both of them at the same position. Jalen Wilson is nowhere near good enough with the ball in his hands to play on the perimeter.
Jalen is also going to fill out much larger than Tristan will. Jalen is going to fill out at 235 lbs. or so. Those two factors are why Jalen will be the stretch 4 for the future and Tristan Enaruna will be the 3 of the future.
@FarmerJayhawk KU has Enaruna listed at 6-8, when has KU ever listed someone as being shorter than they really are?
@KUSTEVE Enaruna is probably the 5th big if Self puts him at the 4. There's no minutes in that situation either. Wherever Tristan plans this year, he's the last man in rotation anyway so he'll have probably 3-4 mpg along with several DNP's once conference play starts.
His defense is a work in progress regardless of position. He's a stereotypical Euro player in that regard
@drgnslayr There could be up to 3 redshirts this year. Christian Braun seems the most likely, we all know the talk about Mitch possibly taking one as well. I think there could be third one now that KU has signed Harris. It wouldn't surprise me to see the loser of the McBride/Harris battle take a redshirt as well this year to stagger those two so KU isn't looking to sign two PG's in class out of necessity again.
@KUSTEVE Kevin Young came into a very different situation though. KU's depth those 2 years were nonexistent in the front court so Young played the 4 out of necessity more than anything. Young had two things going for him that helped him not be totally overwhelmed when he was in. The first was that he was older when he got to KU, I think he was 22 when he got here so his body was more mature. Second, Young had very long arms that helped him on defense and getting rebounds. Had KU had more depth those two years, I think we would've seen Young at the three because there definitely times when he was physically overmatched on defense.
With Tristan, he doesn't look like he has the length KY did, longer than Svi, but not freakishly long like KY. Also, given Enaruna's background as a Euro player, his fundamentals are pretty advanced. Tristan's game is also much more suited to the three spot than any other position on the floor. Like a lot of Euro players, defense is probably going to be a weakness for Tristan early on. It was for Svi and for a lot of other Euro players even when they reach the NBA.
@jayballer73 This year and it's Villanova since that game was already scheduled.
@KUSTEVE Enaruna has a very similar frame to Svi and Svi primarily played the 3.
@Kcmatt7 Self or some other coach said he was only 6-8. He also doesn't have a frame like Wilson to put on much more weight, he'll probably top out at about 220 lbs whereas Wilson will probably top out at 235-240. Enaruna is an above average ball handler like Svi and slashing is the most advanced part of his game at this point.
Jalen Wilson is an average at best ball handler for his size. Every recruiting service also has Enaruna listed as a 3.
@Crimsonorblue22 Only surprised in that Dedric didn't play with the Spurs. At this point, I don't ever see him making an NBA roster again because his lack of offensive ability is widely known.
Dedric is a very fundamentally sound player and with Tim Duncan as an assistant coach now, that should help Dedric whenever he's with San Antonio and in the G-League.
@Kcmatt7 Wilson and Enaruna play different positions. Wilson is a stretch 4 and Enaruna is a 3. Wilson or McBride/Harris (whichever gets the back up PG job) will be the freshman with the most minutes this year.
If that ends up being true and KU doesn't play Kentucky, it would only be the second time KU and Kentucky haven't played in the B12/SEC Challenge in a year when they didn't meet in the Champions Classic.
Ty Berry may be a local-ish kid, but KU doesn't want to keep stockpiling players with his profile. KU already has McBride, Harris, and Braun on the roster so I'm guessing Ty Berry is a low priority recruit because there are other positions that KU has greater need. As low as Berry is ranked, the staff also likely view Berry as a fall back option in case they miss on other higher profile players they are targeting.
@Marco You'll notice if you look at those players who average less than 10 mpg typically don't play every game. They will typically have some DNP's throughout the season. Even if a player averages 7-8 mpg, if they don't play every game, they aren't a rotation player. They're a player whose minutes are dictated by stuff like foul trouble or giving someone a breather before a TV timeout to get that rotation player a couple extra minutes of a break in real time.
Playing 3 minutes in a game because someone picked up their second foul before halftime doesn't make that player a rotation player.
@FarmerJayhawk I'm not comparing the athleticism of Dave and T-Rob because T-Rob is the better athlete. That doesn't mean you can't look at a year when someone with T-Rob's size was used as a 4 because of having the less athletic and mobile Jeff Withey playing along side him and use some of those sets on offense with Dave and Doke. It doesn't mean you run the entire 2012 playbook because Doke can't do a lot of things that Withey could do.
Based on the camp scrimmage footage out there, Dave looked more athletic than last season. Those scouting reports on Dave's athleticism are mostly from his HS time when he was still out of shape and pushing 300 lbs. The difference in Dave between the McDonald's game and when the season started was significant and he looked much better in November than he did in April. Dave said during those summer camps in June that he was down to 260 lbs., I wouldn't be shocked if he's down to 250-255 lbs. when this season starts.
Again, I don't think Dave and Doke play more than about 5 minutes or so together so it's not like I'm advocating extended minutes from those two together and Self doesn't do a lot of switching outside the end of the shot clock anyway so I don't see that being a big issue with those two playing limited minutes together. With Dave and Silvio together, they should each be able to spread the floor and be interchangeable in offensive sets when together. Because Silvio is the better rebounder, that's why I think Dave would play more away from the basket than Silvio will because it will mask Dave's weaknesses on the glass while allowing Silvio to clean up the boards.
As for Wilson as a stretch 4, Ellis is the comparison. Wilson is an average at best athlete like Ellis, he's a below average rebounder like Ellis for his size, he's not a great shooter (sub 40% from 3 every year), so probably won't be anything more than about 30% from 3 this season and not giving defenders a reason to guard him close on the perimeter. He so doesn't have great handles so when he drives, he'll probably get the ball poked away quite a bit. The one area I think Wilson is better out of the gate than Ellis is his vertical. Ellis was always a below the rim player and Wilson has enough hops to be able to eventually finish through contact.
@FarmerJayhawk A 0.9% difference at those levels is negligible. It essentially amounts to one more play run through Doke every 2-3 games. This year, I wouldn't be shocked if Doke's usage rate goes up to the 35% range.
The biggest reason I think Dave can play some 4 on offense this year is because of his continued weight loss and reshaping of his body. We know that's something he's dedicated to and has the work ethic off the court to do what he needs to do. The next step in the process is increasing his flexible which will increase his athleticism to the point that he won't be overmatched against most 4's.
I don't think he'll play extended minutes with Doke, maybe 5 or so per game and probably 15 or so alongside Silvio. I really don't think matters which one of Doke or Silvio he's out there with, I think he'll be the 4 on the offensive end of the floor doing what T-Rob did when he played next to Withey. 2011-12 T-Rob is the offensive blueprint for McCormack this year. The benefit of that is his mid range can pull a defender away from the paint which opens up driving lanes for the guards and slows down the time to double Doke. If he can hit a top of the key 3, that also opens up the paint. This is why it's also important for Silvio to develop that shot as well.
On defense, because I don't think Dave will spend much time alongside Doke, I don't think Dave guarding a 4 for a few minutes a game is going to be an issue. If Dave progresses enough to where he can consistently guard opposing 4's while he's playing with Silvio, that hides his rebounding weaknesses and would allow Silvio to clean up on the glass.
@jayballer73 David McCormack will play more at the 4 this season than Jalen Wilson will at the 3.
And no, David McCormack is not a true 5, he's a traditional style 4. At the college level, most traditional 4's do play the 5 because true 5's are an endangered species in modern basketball. In Self's time at KU, he's only had four true 5's come through the program. Sasha Kaun, Jeff Withey, Joel Embiid, and currently Udoka Azubuike. Other's who have manned that spot have typically been traditional style 4's playing alongside a stretch 4.
@FarmerJayhawk I think you'll be surprised there. Dave keeps working on his body and I think that's a big part of why Self said Dave has stood out so much this off-season. Dave has an offensive game similar to T-Rob and T-Rob played a lot of 4 for KU, particularly in 2012 playing next to Withey.
I'm not saying Dave plays exclusively at the 4, but his athleticism and mid range abilities are the best among himself, Doke, and DeSousa at this time (at least that we're aware of since Silvio is still a question mark on that end) and because of that, I think we'll see Dave mostly play the 4 on offense and guard the 4 spot when he's on the floor with Doke and guard the 5 spot when he's out there with Silvio.
BTW, the usage rate for Doke and Dedric last season was very close, Doke was 30% and Dedric was 29.1% so not a significant difference.
@jayballer73 8 maybe, 9 no, unless you want to keep ignoring 16 years of history. Only way 9+ players get 10+ mpg will be because of injuries just any other season that has seen 9+ players in that range.
Ignoring that I think those minutes projections were low for Silvio and Dave and high for Wilson, did you happen to notice that minutes projection for Wilson fit with him being a 4 and not 3 like you keep thinking will happen?
@FarmerJayhawk Doke is going to be the focal point of the offense this year which means he'll see an increase in minutes this year. Last year, Lawson was the focal point of the offense and the year before that was Mason. If Doke was a good FT shooter, I would've said he'd get north of 30 mpg because he's that impactful on both ends of the floor. An increased role in the offense means Doke'll get an increase in minutes as well.
Silvio is by far the best rebounder among those 3 and the best defender because he can guard both post positions. I think Silvio's defense is where we'll see the immediate improvement from all of the scout team stuff he did last year. If Silvio worked on his range during the year off and can hit a spot up 3, that's a game changer for the offense because it brings the high-low back in a very prominent way. Silvio's FT shooting numbers in his limited minutes suggests he has the form to extend his range.
Dave can play both post spots because he does have a mid range game. With Dave being a poor rebounder for his though, I think he probably plays the 4 most of the time he's in because Some and Silvio are the better traditional style post players.
It could end up being more like 30-25-20 with Silvio-Doke-Dave in that order for minutes which I think most people would be okay with.
@FarmerJayhawk Doke's mpg seems about right. I think he does play around 27 mpg and I think Silvio and Dave's minutes are low though. I think all 3 of them between 25-30 mpg. I think Silvio could possibly top 30 mpg. Silvio and Dave are both good enough FT shooters that pulling Doke in those crunch time moments shouldn't be a big deal.
@Marco Why would Bill Self suddenly change from 16 years of history and habits? And no, that projection is not a 10 man rotation, it's still an 8 man rotation. For clarity's sake, a rotation level player is someone who typically plays 10+ mpg, not less. Tristan Enaruna at 3-7 mpg is not rotation level minutes. That's him getting spot minutes because of foul issues or someone needing a quick breather before a TV timeout.
@Marco Self has never gone more than 8 deep when there's been no injury issues. Even the 2008 title team which was probably the deepest team Self has ever had only had an 8 man rotation. Don't expect that to change starting this year.
@Crimsonorblue22 Not a lot. Dotson is going to play at least 32-33 mpg again this year (32.4 last season). There's just not many minutes available for him as a back up PG and Marcus Garrett likely gets some of those back up minutes as well.
@jayballer73 Cole Aldrich did not play big minutes as a freshman (8 mpg), Thomas Robinson did not play big minutes as a freshman (7 mpg). Jeff Withey did not play big minutes as a freshman or sophomore (3 mpg as a freshman, 6 mpg as a sophomore).
A lack of minutes does not mean a lack of talent. It means a lack of opportunities due to better options already on the roster. And no, Bill Self will not go more than 8 deep once the rotation is settled if he doesn't have to. Self has had to go deeper the past few years because of injuries and eligibility issues that have crept up, but when there are no issues of that nature, Self has never gone beyond an 8 man rotation.
You might want to go do some research on the issue. In years where there's more than 8 players that averaged 10 mpg, look at the games played number as well and see how rotation players missed time due to various issues.
@jayballer73 Jalen Wilson is not a 3 at the college level no matter how much you want him to play that spot because he's not quick enough to guard perimeter players and doesn't have the handles to be a perimeter based player. He's was 6-8, 215 lbs. on his recruiting profiles with more room to fill out. 6-8, 230ish lbs. is not a wing in college, that's a stretch 4. He have a similar role in the offense that Perry Ellis, Josh Jackson, and Marcus Morris had as face up players who can stretch defenses
@Crimsonorblue22 That's right, Embiid was the back issue. It's still an injury attributed to his size though which is the main concern with Doke.
@jayballer73 Who is Jalen Wilson better than right now that would give him big minutes?
Is he better than Udoka Azubuike?
Is he better than Silvio DeSousa?
Is he better than David McCormack?
Is he better than Mitch Lightfoot?
Which of those 4 players is he better than right now?
Only way Jalen Wilson is playing good minutes this year once Selfntrims the rotation is an injury or suspension to someone in that group.
@HawkChamp This is very good team on paper with a very high ceiling just like each of the last several seasons. Moss is a solid defender, but he's not better than Dotson or Garrett at that end of the floor.
The ranking last season and this season is based purely on one player and that's Udoka Azubuike. His two wrist injuries to me are a sign that his muscles, tendons, and ligaments haven't caught up to his size yet. I guarantee he's not the only player who's hand has been caught in Jersey in practice under Self, but why is he the only one suffering serious injuries from that. The one year he didn't have a season ending injury, Doke still missed the B12 tournament with back issues.
I'll this right now, as long as Doke stays healthy, KU will be a top 5 team. If Doke misses games though, and given his track record I'd bet money him missing games, KU will struggle like last year because they will still have the same issues as last season.
With Doke, this team should make at least the E8. Without him, they will struggle to reach the Sweet 16.
@drgnslayr Isaiah Moss had a PER of 14 last season. That's the same as Mitch Lightfoot last season. Moss shot a pathetic 38% from 2 point range last season.
Off the court and character wise, Moss is an upgrade over Vick, there's no arguing that part of the equation and that's why Moss is a net upgrade over Vick. As far as actually basketball ability goes however, Moss is not a better player than Vick. Moss had 14 games last season where failed to make a 3 pointer. 8 of those 0-fer games were in Iowa's last 16 games of the season. 4 of those 16 games, he didn't make a single FG the entire game. Go look at the game logs for Moss and you will see a picture of inconsistency on offense.
Moss does not drive well or take many shots inside the arc. Moss took 162 FGA last season, 114 of those were from 3 point range.
I'll be honest, if someone gave me the choice between Lagerald Vick without the baggage or Isaiah Moss, I'd take Vick every time.
There will be moments this season where people are wondering why the hell did Self bring him in, just be ready for it.
@jayballer73 Whoever doesn't start among Garrett, Agbaji, and Moss is getting the back up minutes on the wing. Jalen Wilson isn't playing nearly as many minutes as you think he will this season. He's a solid prospect, but there's a reason he's ranked as low as he was in a weak class. He'll be a nice player in years 2 and beyond, but he won't average more than 7-8 minutes this year and that's only if Lightfoot redshirts. If Lightfoot doesn't redshirt, Wilson will average less than 5 mpg.
@jayballer73 How much video on Wilson have you watched? He is not athletic enough to guard on the perimeter. Jalen Wilson will not see a single minute at the 2 during his time at KU.
@KUSTEVE KU only scored 75 ppg last season. This is not some elite scoring team KU is returning. Considering this team is made up of mostly the same group as last season expect for two players (the two leading scorers), one of whom is not an offensive upgrade, wondering about points is a valid concern since it was a struggle last season at times.
@jayballer73 We know historically that Self prefers a 7 or 8 man rotation once he trims the rotation for B12 play. Injuries can mess that rotation up obviously, but this is assuming no injuries.
KU has a full 13 man roster of scholarship players so that means 5 or 6 scholarship players will not be in that rotation. We also know redshsirting is a possibility, but we won't know who actually does or doesn't until much later so I'm ignoring that right now. Just so everyone is clear, the 3 redshirt possibilities this season would be Lightfoot, Braun, and Harris.
I think only of the starting spots are guaranteed at this point and that's Dotson and Doke. The other two perimeter spots will be between Agbaji, Garrett, and Moss and the other post spot will be between Silvio and McCormack.
I think the best line up for KU would be Dotson, Moss, Agbaji, Silvio, and Doke. I say this because Marcus Garrett can play 1-4 so he can sub for anyone if KU wanted to go 4 guards. I would have Dave off the bench because he can sub for either post position.
That's 7 players right there, that means there's maybe 1 more rotation spot available. Depending on how Self uses Garrett, that 8th rotation spot is likely the back up PG spot. That's a battle between McBride and Harris for that role.
@jayballer73 Where are his minutes going to come from? This is the type of team where Self typically has a very short leash with freshmen.
Just about every scouting report on Wilson talks about him being a better scorer than shooter at this point so I wouldn't expect him to light world in fire with his shooting right away. He was also described as a good athlete which means he's a step slow compared to the top recruits where you would see the term great or elite athlete.
There's a reason he was ranked 50ish in a weak recruiting class. He's nowhere near a polished product and he's going to need time to get to where he can be which I think is somewhere between Marcus Morris and Perry Ellis. Those players needed time as well to become what they became at KU.
Best case for Jalen Wilson this year is the 4th big man which historically means 7-8 mpg because he isn't jumping Doke, Silvio, or Dave in the rotation barring injury. If Lightfoot doesn't redshirt, then Wilson is a non factor this year in the rotation and would only see spot minutes in mop up time because he wouldn't be ahead of Lightfoot either.
@KUSTEVE Dave isn't going to be playing alongside Doke much, if at all, he's going to be the back up for Doke which means him and Silvio likely play together quite a bit as well. I do think the spacing will be better with Dave and Silvio together because of Dave's mid range ability. My big concern with Dave is his rebounding ability because it was awful last year. That has to get better for him to see a significant uptick in his minutes.
You also need to go back and re-read my Vick/Moss comparison because I specifically said on the court, I did not mention off the court because I've already called Vick the second biggest cancer KU has had under Self. I wasn't a big fan of bringing Vick back last year because of his baggage.
Saying a 3 point shooter streaky is like saying water is wet is not a good analogy. There is a difference in the type of outside shooter players like Vick and Moss are compared to what Svi, Graham, and Mason were as shooters. A bit streak for a streaky shooter may be something like hitting 60 or 70% over a 2-3 game stretch like we saw with Vick early last season. A cold streak for a streaky shooter is going to be hitting about 20% over a several game stretch.
Consistent shooters like Svi, Graham, and Mason don't tend to spike as much either way during hot or cold stretches. That's the difference between a streaky shooter and a consistent shooter.
Wilson, McBride, and Braun can shoot, but they won't be factors in the rotation so they don't add much this year. In a couple of seasons, those guys will probably challenge the '17 and '18 teams for made 3's, but they aren't ready yet.
As for Garrett he's never going to be a good shooter. Just look as his FT% and tell me why we should expect him to ever find a consistent shot. His ceiling is about 33% as a deep shooter. Garrett is a slasher, not a shooter.
@HawkChamp The E8 win against Duke in that run, Silvio played 26 minutes and scored 4 points. That's why he won't be Dedric Lawson. He will develop, but that takes time and there is no substitute for that. Lawson got to where he was because of on court experience. Silvio DeSousa lacks that.
Lawson was entering his junior season just like Silvio will be this year. Silvio has played 175 minutes of college basketball entering his junior season. Dedric Lawson had played 2,166 minutes of college basketball entering his junior season.
As far as practicing, yeah Silvio practiced last season, but he was scout team all year. He wasn't running the KU offense at all in practice, he was running the other team's offense. This matters as well because he doesn't have the reps in the Self offense.
I think you're getting way ahead of yourself about what Silvio will be this year because of a few good moments sprinkled in with a lot more bad moments.
@HawkChamp Your key term is potential. I will not argue about the higher ceiling because Silvio absolutely has the higher ceiling. KU is not getting a 4th year Silvio with a refined game. They're getting a Silvio with less than 200 of game time that's likely still very raw offensively. That consistency is why I'd rather take a 4th year Dedric over the version of Silvio we'll get this year that will likely still struggle with consistency.
@HawkChamp I didn't miss it, I just don't overhype his performance because of one good game. His limited minutes are getting overhyped the way Cole Aldrich as a freshmen frequently gets overhyped because of what Cole did against UNC. Silvio has a lot of potential, but until he shows he can do that consistently with extended minutes, it's still just potential for Silvio. He won't be what he was against WVU in the B12 tournament every game. That was an A+ game and you get A+ every game. Most games you get a C and Silvio's C game this year is probably lower than Dedric's C game was last season at least on offense.
Silvio played more than 15 minutes 3 times and only reached double digits in points two times. Most of his offense was limited to put backs off of misses or teams doubling Doke off of him.
The reason Dedric became less efficient as the year went on was because he was the sole focus of the offense after Doke's injury. When you put have one guy who's not afraid to take a shot, his numbers were going to get worse as the year went because he was wearing down because he didn't have any help.
Don't forget that in the NCAA Tournament, Silvio played 10, 4, 13, 26, and 10 minutes in those games. He didn't exactly follow up that WVU game with more great games.
His NCAA performance is why I'm pumping the brakes on the Silvio hype train. Do not forget that in his 22 games, Silvio played a grand total of 175 minutes.
@KUSTEVE None of those players are consistent shooters, they're all streaky shooters like Lagerald Vick and Elijah Johnson. Moss is a player that can hit 5/6 in a game and then make 2 total 3's during the next 3 games. That's what his career has been and there's no reason to think that'll change this year. Agbaji is also a streaky shooter and I don't expect him to be much better than 35% this season and that's if he's healthy all year. Dotson is the only one with potential, he last year he was too scared to pull the trigger on a lot of open 3's. This is going to be a marginally better shooting team that last year.
I kept saying last summer this was going to be a team that struggled to score because of a lack of outside shooting. I got crapped on by a lot of people for that position and when the season started and KU was a bad shooting team that went through a lot of scoring droughts, a lot of people were shocked even though I'd been saying it for months that it would happen. This season isn't going to be much different in that area.
There's only going to be 2 new players in KU's rotation this year, Moss and Silvio. This is strictly on court, but Moss isn't an upgrade over Vick. He's a push at best. Off the court, obviously there's no comparison as Vick was probably the second biggest locker room cancer of a play Self has had after CJ Henry. Silvio is a down grade from Dedric on the offensive end of the floor. Silvio is a better rebounder than Dedric, but Dedric was far superior to Silvio in regards to scoring. Experience is the reason for that, but that's reality. On defense, it remains to be seen what kind of development Silvio has made. Until proven otherwise, I would consider Silvio a down grade from Lawson.
As for replacing Grimes, it really comes down to whether or not Agbaji's shin issues are chronic or not. I suspect it will still be an issue because Agbaji is still growing and maturing physically, he may end up similar to Wayne Selden and have to modify his game to account for leg issues.
With Marcus Garrett, a two post player system is the worst fit for his offensive game. His best work came right after the Doke injury and KU was running the 4 guard offense again and Garrett had room to drive. A two post player offense takes that element of Garrett away which is where his value on offense comes from if he's not running point. I think Garrett ends up being the back up point once the rotation is finalized.
This is why I keep harping on Silvio having to have a consistent mid range or outside shot. If Silvio doesn't have a consistent mid range or outside shot, the offense will take a step back this year because teams are going to pack the paint and force KU to beat them from deep just like last year. I fully expect teams to pack the paint, sit in the passing lanes, and take away the drive which hurts Dotson, Agbaji, and Garrett because driving is the biggest strength offensively for each of those players.
KU shot 35% from 3 last year, I genuinely don't expect much improvement this year, if any. I'm calling it now, KU is going to play bully ball which is going to result in a lot of lower scoring games for KU this year.