I'm not even going to worry about UCLA at this point because there's some really good teams we'd have potentially play before then. Also, UCLA without Jaylen Clark is a lot less scary than with him. Also potentially missing Adem Bona is a blow to their depth. At this point, I don't think they get past Gonzaga.
I actually really like our draw for the most part, assuming McCullar can play. Arkansas is good enough to give KU issues, but they can't shoot worth a damn. None of their current rotation guys are even at 35% from 3 so keep them out of the paint on defense and force them to beat you from deep.
Illinois depends on two ex-Big 12 players that KU is going to be very familiar with in Terrance Shannon and Matt Mayer.
UConn doesn't scare me because they don't have a PG and KU's defense should be able to turn them over. Sanogo can cause issues for Kansas, but our backcourt should be able turn them over.
St. Mary's is who concerns me the most in this half of the region because of their defense and snail's pace of play. We don't play well at half court, slow down games and they can do that to KU.
As for the bottom half of the bracket, Jaylen Clark and possibly Bona is a bog deal for UCLA. Jacquez and Wilson will put on a damn show if they do play because those are two of the 5 best players in college basketball this season.
Gonzaga doesn't play much defense so KU should score and run with them.
We know TCU can give us fits since they did that twice including the blowout in AFH this season.