For anyone looking for double digit seeds to make it past the weekend, these are the ones to look out for based on Kenpom ratings. San Francisco, Virginia Tech, Loyola-Chicago, and Michigan.
San Francisco, Kenpom actually has them rated higher than Murray St. and both teams being in the top 30 of Kenpom. Regardless of who Kentucky plays in the second round, they're getting the hardest match up of the 2 seeds in the second round.
Virginia Tech and Loyola-Chicago also both double digit seeds that are each top 25 Kenpom teams.
Virginia Tech plays a Texas team in the 1st round that's lost 3 straight games and 4 out of 6. Both teams are sub 340 in adjusted tempo so that game could be a brutal assault on the eyes. VT's likely 2nd round opponent would be Purdue in a major clash of styles.
Loyola-Chicago plays Ohio St. in the 1st round in another potential race to 50 game and then would likely play Villanova in another potential race to 50 game between sub 300 tempo teams.
Michigan plays Colorado St. and is actually favored in that game. ESPN actually has Michigan at 73% chance of winning that one. Michigan would likely play Tennessee in the 2nd round and I don't see Michigan winning that one so they're tge least likely of those 4 to make it past the weekend.
Of the First Four teams most likely to make it past the weekend, Indiana is probably the best bet, but I don't really think any of the First Four teams wins a game in the main draw.
For the best bets on low major teams to pull massive upsets (13 seeds or lower), South Dakota St., Vermont, and Chattanooga are decent chances. I think South Dakota St. has the best chance to pull a 13/4 upset followed by Vermont and then Chattanooga.