🏀 KuBuckets Archive

OU shooting Stats confirm KU guarded 4 guys better than I thought?

The player that guarded their guy that went off will, or will not, be selected defensive player of the week?

Embiid quoted that he cannot remember the play in which he was hit in the eye by Michelson. Concussion? Brain "nicked up?" Socket crack? Vision problem? Weak line suggests something.

White got zip PT after ambiguous answer to transfer rumor. Linkage?

Conner quoted saying Self said matchups dictated Conner would see some PT. Match ups post ambiguous transfer answer by White?

Self coyly having it both ways with refs on T call? It would not play well with refs I knew? Will it play well with the refs vs. KSU?

When was the last time KU ALLOWED A LOSING TEAM 83 points in a conference opener?

How does a team hold an opponent to 37% FG, yet allow 83 points?!!!!!!!!!!!!

@approxinfinity , u r amazing. Thanks.

Please resolve again. TIA

@globaljaybird PHOF. ABSOLUTE PHOF!!!

@JayDocMD One more thought on Snacks. He can buy snacks like nobody's business. :-

@iowajayhawk2005, I'm going to let you in on a little secret in a single compound sentence: I write long to avoid comments by you specifically. ;-)

@VailHawk Maybe we got better at not getting better? :-)

Seriously, you are probably right, but I am too boggled by the last two games to see it yet.

@VailHawk, I believe Self will not start him precisely because he might add some consistency to this team. Self has created a team that almost no one can defend or attack, because they cannot forecast what they will be weakest at next. Defense? Offense? Rebounding? FG shooting? FT shooting? TOs? Penetration? You never know what they might be bad at one night and good at the next. Scheming against this team is like scheming against a random number generator. You never can tell what combination of things they will do poorly and well in order to keep a game close. :-)

Well, not exactly iced it, but if conference round robbins were sensitively dependent on initial conditions, and they probably are because they are characterized by some chaos and emergent complexity, then KU stealing an away win against the Sooners, means KU is likely to sweep the Sooners back in Larrytown. In turn, this means that KU can play for splits with Baylor, OSU, and ISU and likely as not seal at least a share of the title; this assumes that chaos and complexity in a distribution of talent favoring KU, will work over the long haul of a round robbin to trigger all but one of Baylor, OSU, and ISU into splits with each other too, leaving KU, and perhaps one other of the four dominant teams, with the only sweeps of one of the four dominant teams in the conference.

Thus, KU established the initial conditions required for a share of a title. :-)

Next comes the part where I get egg on my face and JNewell gets bragging rights.

JNew expectation: KU by five and a high scoring game.

Outcome: KU by 7 and a high scoring game.

The man deserves big time quantitative strokes.

I on the other hand deserve ridicule and scorn.

I predicted KU by 15 and OU being held to the high 60s. Their ends the reign of my reliable forecasting and so I humbly pass the torch to the new King Quant. But don't tell him I said so. :-)

As a further note of self humiliation, I wrote that Wiggins would have a monster game tonight. Boy, was I ever completely off on that one. Wiggins was a primer on ineffectiveness.

My run down:

Selden: Wayne had a break out, funk ending game and strangely did not look very good doing it. Weirdest combination I have seen in a while. I saw Selden take and miss a trey in the first half with such awful mechanics that I guess I became a prisoner of that experience and saw him through a negative lens, despite in fact an exemplary game on his part. The numbers don't lie about him: 50% from trey and about the same from the floor. Whew! Hot. Also only two TOs. Hooray for Wayne. Fortunately I have not been beating the drums for Wayne to be pushed onto the pine. Those that have been seeking pine time for Selden need to go to confession and be absolved. :-)

Ellis: Oh, my god is this getting predictable, or what? Put Perry on a 6-7 guy with a 6-7 partner, and Perry will hang 22/11 every time. Perry is a monster against small bigs. If only everyone started 6-7 bigs. Still, the important thing about Perry was he was out there hustling from the start.

Wiggins: Wow! Did Lebron ever have this many unimpressive games in a row? Jordan? Even Dominique Wilkins? I will stop there. Fouled up. Mrs. Wiggins, please talk to your son. An OAD year is a terrible thing to waste.

Tharpe: Tharpe does not look like a tough nut, but he is one on the inside at least. He fell about as low as a point guard could fall against SDSU that first half. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong and then some things that could not go wrong went wrong, too. He sucked more than a pleicostomas on aquarium glass; then tonight vs. OU he was a picture of offensive efficiency. His defense was typically spotty. But Congratulations! Nothing runs like a Naadir.

Embiid: he wasn't very productive after several good performances. He's a freshman, so what else is new. Foul troubles? Check. TOs? Check. 1 lousy block against a bunch of guys short enough to have trouble touching the top of his head? Check. But the big guy was efficient offensively and and got six caroms on an off night, so, Bill, keep building around him.

Traylor: too many TOs.

Frankamp: got in and did something good at point. Made a trey, something about as rare among our perimeter backups as a visit by Haley's Comet. Congratulations Conner. Note: Self started him at point the second half for reasons as inexplicable as why basketball is not the most popular game on the planet already.

Mason: Frank was caught in the 2s: 2 TOs, 2 PFs, and 2 points. Frank seems to struggle against lesser guards. Self seems to be learning the counter intuitive lesson and only plays him a lot against good guards. Just more weirdness on KU's weirdest team ever (you read that here first).

Black: Tarick proved that he simply should not suit up when the other team starts a front line of 6-7. There is something about holding towering advantage over someone that paralyses Tarick.

Greene: 1 assist and 1 foul and lots of goose eggs in five minutes. Let's just say that for whatever reason, Brannen Greene is not burning up the nets yet.

Wesley: Justin got a look to keep Landen Lucas from getting the big head, I guess?

White: Self let White know in no uncertain terms that his four minutes the last game were nothing to write home about.

Lucas: Landen was, shall we say, given a night off to avoid him pulling a muscle chasing dwarves.

Take Away 1: KU got a win by resorting to its early successful formula: generally lousy defense, letting one guy run wild, mild disruption, letting greater height win the rebounding battle with a plus ten (and without blocking out, too), getting fewer strips, and generally making a 50% shooting night a close game.

Take Away 2: KU did not improve tonight; they just shot well and got more rebounds by being taller.

Take Away 3: This team is becoming defined by its ability to find infinitely varied ways to keep games close. It wins close. It loses close. It keeps otherwise terrible drubbings close. It takes its own hot shooting nights and find ways to keep it close. This team will do whatever it takes to keep a game close. It will shoot as poorly and rebound as little as it has to against SDSU, but then ramp up its disruption stat to get a close loss. It will catch fire shooting and then play piss poor defense to win close. There is almost nothing this team will not do to keep a game close.

Note to Cin: This process is not nearly as enjoyable as Bill suggested it could be. :-)

P.S.: They stole a win on the road. By definition that is a great accomplishment despite not getting better. Put another way, perhaps they have found a way to win without getting better.

P.P.S.: Maybe Self has finally even turned the idea of getting better upside down. He seems to have developed a team that can keep finding ways to win as it gets worse.

P.P.P.S.: Seriously, even on just a normally warm shooting night, KU would have lost this game. On the other hand, they would almost certainly have found a way to keep it a close loss. They might have played better FT defense, or what have you.

P.P.P.P.S: I am not sure how KU can win without pressure defense and disruption and with an underachieving facsimile of Kenny Gregory rather than the next Lebron, but let's face facts here--KU is 10-4 and 1-0 in the conference. Bill Self seems to have found a way to win with a team that does absolutely nothing well on a consistent basis, but be inconsistent. In fact, this may become Self's most extraordinary coaching accomplishment yet. Now Bill is so good that he can find a way to win playing consistently inconsistent, dare I say, badly om infinitely varying ways. We are yet again through the basketball looking glass here with Bill Self. I doubted he could do it again to me after ten years. He is a remarkable man; that much is for certain.

Rock Chalk!

@Kip_McSmithers, yes, Kip, but any move we make in this media connected and hyped era of the game has that possibility. I still think the net is benefit and not cost. But you can bet that what you say will occur. Its a cost I am willing to bear. Nothing worthwhile comes without a cost.

@iowajayhawk2005, trust me you do not know what hostile response is. You're practically beloved already. :-)

@globaljaybird, I come at this team chemistry issue a few ways.

First, we probably can't know until after the fact.

Second, all teams have at least some chemistry problems sometime or other during the season. The question is: do they surmount them. I suspect the '08 ring team had some issues, but it resolved them by the end.

Third, the only kind of internal conflict on a team that is killer is if it makes guys not try hard and play tough and up to their abilities.

What we have seen so far could just as easily be explained by young persons that have never gotten the shizz beaten out of them before becoming kind of overwhelmed by the combinations of the big come down from early season hype, the harsh experience of being stomped on a couple of times, and all of the learning and rules changes, plus Finals. Its a lot for even mature teams to deal with. This team is young.

But anything remains possible at this time.

Just have to wait and see.

A couple days ago, one of the headlines linked to a story talking about Andrew White coming back from a hip pointer., after missing three games.

When asked about rumors of transferring, he indicated something to the effect that it would be selfish of him to think about transferring during the season; that all of his focus was on practicing hard, trying to help the team and hoping Coach Self would call on him some time. He seemed to put a very optimistic spin on things, but seemed also not to categorically say he would not transfer.

I thought this was an interesting, candid and forthright way for a young man to deal with the issue and wanted to compliment AW3 for doing it that way.

It seems only fair in an era when coaches admit to over recruiting some to avoid being left shorthanded by transfers and departures that players be able to leave transfer on the table, while simultaneously trying their best to make the rotation.

It seems wrong to make kids deny they will transfer for the sake of appearances, when transfer simply depends on a lot of unforeseeable outcomes during the course of play and recruiting.

Part of me wishes no one ever had to transfer.

But another part of me thinks players saying they are trying their best and hoping to please a coach, but keeping their transfer options open, is at least a small step forward for players interests, if not rights.

What the game needs, and needs most urgently, is a new rule permitting players to transfer without having to sit out a following season, whenever they want.

I, for one board rat, believe it will be better for coaches and better for players in terms of enabling honesty among coaches and players.

Regarding Snacks, it is way to soon to say what his strengths as a coach are. The strengths of assistants are only trickled out by Self once they have made some contributions. He apparently is as demanding and show-me about his staff, as he is with his players. But given that Self has two superb recruiters in Kurtis and Norm, I would doubt that recruiting is the only thing Jerrance brings to the stew. His title is assistant head coach; that is not just a gimme to get him to bring a few players. Jerrance is being signaled to be head coaching material; that means he has people skills, X and O skills and so on. But that does not mean he is necessarily a quant like Dooley became. He could be. But until Self lets on what Jerrance's strengths are, we outsiders simply are not going to know.

@drgnslayr, way to carry the burden, slayr.

@drgnslayr, thank you so very much for that link, slayr. You and I and globaljay have the years on us to remember Wooden the coach and not Wooden the historical legend. But even for us it helps to hear guys from his teams lay it all out again. What I wish is that more of his assistant coaches would write at length about what he did and how he did it. Not in an expose sense, or in a hero worship kind of thing, but just in a nuts and bolts coaching sense. So much of success is in the details. Starting a season teaching the UCLA way to wear socks and tie tennis shoes is so revealing of his approach. I recall reading that in one of his books, but I had forgotten it until you recalled it for me again. Wooden was an amazing thinker and doer for any era and any field, at any size tournament, given any level of talent, coaching at any school; this is what young persons must be taught perpetually. The game can be understood. The game, no matter how they change the rules, can be thought about, broken down, put back together, and mastered. It was not the time that he lived in that enabled him to do what he did; that is the thinking of small minds unwilling to rise to the challenge of excellence. If you have ever met Wooden, you know that had he thought that way, he could never have accomplished what he did. Persons said another Henry Ford and Thomas Edison could never come along. Then Bill Gates and Steve Jobs came along. Great human beings find solutions to problems. No one will ever duplicate Ford, Edison, Gates, Jobs and Wooden, exactly, because the circumstances each man worked in changed. But those that simplistically talk about the size of the tournament, or the number of D1 teams competing for talent, necessarily preclude another great run in coaching don't get how these great men function. Great men don't look at circumstances and say things cannot be done. They look at circumstances, which are endlessly unique, and find a way--a unique path they are able to discover and get incredibly good at repeating.

My one concern about Bill Self is that his philosophy, of one third good games, one third bad games, and one third middling games, while statistically accurate, becomes an alibi that creates the kind of self fulfilling prophecy that perhaps precludes sustained excellence at a tournament level. Self does not even seem to entertain the notion that one could play six straight great games and so this makes his teams less likely ever to do so. True, his teams can often beat you on a bad night, but they also seem less inclined to play well for long stretches, as Wooden's teams routinely did during the seasons I was old enough to understand what I was watching, roughly from '66 to his last title.

Wooden was a product of the last great age of American belief in sustainable excellence. He was a product of the last great age of American belief that problems could be solved, not just managed. It was an age of inductive reasoning and scientific solutions and empirical facts and the confidence their logics inspired. It was not yet widely eroded by the implications of uncertainty in the quantum theory that then rippled (often unsoundly) through so much of the rest of the soft sciences.

Self in contrast is an early product of the new age of the simulation model, of the non parametric statistic, of the prevalent acceptance of managing the unsolvable, of coping with, rather than curing uncertainty. Hence, Self's philosophy that psychology research and his common sense tell him one third good games, one third bad games, and one third middling games. He assumes a normal distribution to human performance that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. This is the ideological drift of human science and reason in our era; this and the embrace of paradoxes at not just sub atomic levels, but at every level of society.

It is not that one era is superior to another. It is simply the differences in the two eras world views, their paradigms if you will.

It makes us better today at certain things and them in their days better at other things.

You and I happen to be old enough to have one foot in each era. We cannot, therefore, help but have some nostalgia for the way it was, while at the same time plowing forward confidently into the future based on the towering accomplishments we know to be possible having witnessed Wooden.

Times change. Paradigms shift. But great men always find a way to use the circumstances of their times and their visions, abilities, and furious work ethics to accomplish what was assumed impossible in every era.

Which is why I repeat T.E. Lawrences line so often: nothing is written. Nothing.

OU will be a tough out, but...

The saplings learned what D1 is about that first half against SDSU...it is about how hard and tough you play.

Talent?

Talent only comes into play once you play hard enough and tough enough for it to overcome another bunch of L&As playing hard and tough.

Unless every sapling on our team has an XTReme Learning Disability, KU will come out on the floor the first half, as it came out on the floor the second half...conducting maximum amps.

Self WILL amp them for this game. They will not have practiced heavily before it. Legs will be very fresh. Players will be juiced, unless there are deep, abiding relationship, personality and transfer issues eating like a cancer at the team. Self will have some wrinkles for them, because Bi-Brow (formerly Uni-Brow) will have the same for KU.

It is an away game and so KU could lose, if OU shoots out the lights.

But KU should get back to 50% inside and 38-40% from trey with fresh legs and the psychological edge of having played SDSU's phenomenally L&A starters. Even though OU has some size and athleticism, playing OU is going to feel like going from swinging two bats with donuts in the on-deck circle against a fast baller to swinging one bat in the box against a control pitcher. You gotta be careful not to overawing at first, but if you can get to 3 and 2, you are going to have a quick bat and some of your juices flowing to look for one to yank.

Rebounding is once again the coin of the realm, as I prefaced the last game with, and then went on ad nauseum about during the JNew chat. A game without rebounding advantage is like World Trade Center VII without a jet impact. All sorts of unforeseeable and hard to solve consequences unfold that people in charge have spend a lot of time after the fact trying without credibility to unravel. A game without rebounding advantage becomes a mystery of cascading riddles wrapped in an enigma of complexity.

Rebounding is best done by those that have a sixth sense for it and KU alas has not one of those kind of players this season. That KU lacks this is one of the reasons I forecast them having a very rough go of it before rounding into shape late.

KU's problems are only partly attributable to youth. The team has serious holes in abilities, as do most teams, as some have noted when I have taken the time to point the shortcomings out. Naa can't guard and shoot on a long guard. Frank can drive, but has yet to learn to dish cunningly, and his virtue of aggressiveness conspires with his inexperience to make him misread required spacing on his man to prevent blow-bys. Selden is a slow-foot with a long first step that masked the slow feet, until he started meeting fast-foots with first steps as long as his, plus Selden is almost certainly playing injured. NBA bodies in D1 don't regress without ongoing, denied injury. And Wayne Selden is an NBA body, don't let the slump fool you. Like a Tyrell Reed on steroids, otherwise L&A Selden will next season acquire fast feet at the muscle couturier--Haut d'Hudy and break a lot of defenders' hearts...and minds.

Moving on to Andrew "Earwigs" Wiggins, his L&A amounts to a mega pincher being applied at creepy crawly speed and intensity most of the time. Andrew has been so much better than his competition all these years that he literally had no clue he would ever need an above average trey gun to do in D1 what he has always done since 4th grade. That same dazzingling L&A has obscured from him that he would ever run up against unsung, non OAD guys he would have to play harder and tougher than for a full 40 minutes to crush. Never in his wildest dreams because his wildest dreams have never included clawing and scratching and biting for 40 minutes just for the chance to explode a few times all over someone's face for the ESPN high light of the night. This is no knock on Andrew; this is why playing AT LEAST an OAD year truly is helpful to NBA bodies with insight. Of course, those without insight it doesn't help, but that is neither here nor there, because Andrew has insight. He just really, really needed that experience of lessers overwhelming him, kicking him when he was down, and walking off at half time laughing and mocking him precisely so he could hear them. Andrew has the insight to shed the "earwig" exoskeleton and fulfill great expectations, once he learns what Bird and Jordan understood understood after getting their butts handed to them (Bird breaking and running his freshman season with Bob Knight) and Jordan getting cut when he was a wee lad. Andrew needed that butt kicking by SDSU more than any sapling on the team, and he got it in a big, big way. And you just know his father, an NBA player, who probably loves him to the edge of the universe and back, knew deep down in his craw that sooner or later his super son, Andrew, was going to have to take a kicking and keep on ticking in order to make a career, and not just a first gaudy contract, in No Boyz Allowed. Andrew Wiggins is not someone I would want to face today, if I were a Sooner. Andrew's father and mother were apparently ferocious athletic competitors. You can almost hear the cell phone conversation that must have occurred after the SDSU game. Father Wigs said, "Facing adversity is part of the game, son. You've got to fight back." Brother Wigs said, "Baby Bro, don't get your robber down. Be strong. Some of those guys on SDSU were old enough to be on NBA pensions. Be yourself and you will be okay." Those conversations were fine. They made him feel better, like this was just one of those bumps in the road. But then mom probably called on Face Time, or Skype, or something and she put the stern mother look on him. She who has competed at a high level looked at her son and said, "You can do better than that." Oooh, those mothers! That's all they gotta say sometimes. Its the look and the failure to live up to even their expectations. Chilling. Just chilling. The mother unit is not satisfied. Ooooh, wee, its like packing a whole bunch of TNT around some U238. Only mothers can come at you from all sides sat once with just a few words and a look. Fathers are head on, linear, battering rams. Mothers are all inclusive, omni-directional imploders. Its the deep nature of evolution. I don't know how good Andrew will execute versus OU, but I suspect we are going to see some nonlinear increase in activity.

Then we come to Embiid: the player that has the heart and fire of a great athlete; the willingness to mix it up with anyone no matter how fierce; but at the same time the guy that really does not yet sufficiently grasp the spatial relationships among himself and his teammates when double and triple teamed. He is already an accomplished shot blocker. He can "make plays." But he often cannot know the spatial things Wilt Chamberlain knew from playing the game since a child. He cannot know yet how other players and refs view him and so what he can and cannot get away with. Time and experience alone can deliver these precious insights to him. Embiid is a star incubating. KU is sooooo fortunate to have him, but it is not the same as having Wilt, or Danny, or Kareem, or Walton yet. It is like having Hakeem that first early season at U of Houston, not the last season of Phi Slamma Jamma.

And then there is The Designer--the 3 revolving elliptically in the 4th orbital shell of the Team Green. Sometimes the elliptical orbit hurls him far from his greatness and sometimes too near Embiid's incubating sun that this team orbits around for him to do anything but score. And then those Blue Meanies of D1--the 23 year old L&As inside--the guys explode all over his head, when he tries to finesse a bucket--they can and do stop him. Its not a knock. Its not a knock. Its like saying Brady Morningstar had a limit at the 3, because he was 6-3 and slight of build and once he ran into the Blue Meanies on the perimeter in the Madness he could not score his usual 40% from trey. It was just stating the obvious. Play out of position without an NBA body in D1 and sooner or later the Blue Meanies separate one from what one is assigned out of position to do. Like night follows day.

And we could go on thusly down the roster. There are holes in this team regardless of age and regardless of the number of ecstatically hyped recruit rankings. They are holes that will remain in one form, or another, for the entire season. Just as other teams have holes.

This is why the game of basketball always defaults finally to which teams have pieces that fit together the most seamlessly and so can mask the inevitable holes the most effectively.

This is why starting freshman is such a chore.

Each game an upper classman starts, he and his coach really only have to worry about compensating for the next one of his flaws opposing coaches expose in his game after several days of film analysis and applying the appropriate player and disruption tactics to him.

But with a freshman, you are also combatting learning everything the first time, plus having opposing coaches expose his flaws.

A freshman has to learn how deafening 15,000 hostile fans can be.

A freshman has to learn how tough and mean long and strong 23 year old men playing for their futures can be on cue from coaches.

A freshman has to learn "the system."

A freshman has to learn D1 speed defense on ball, off ball, and then help one, help two, and help three.

A freshman has to learn to play with a frisky young woman wanting his attentions.

A freshman has to learn to play HARD and TOUGH for 30-38 mpg depending on how close the game is.

A freshman has to go through the pain barrier of length of season starting in January, when the season is already as long as his longest high school season.

And all of the above and more makes it an order of magnitude harder to mask the inevitable holes in abilities on a team hunting for a title and a ring.

I am pretty confident that this team will win the Big Eight Conference, if Baylor doesn't have an exceptional L&A point guard. KU really will have no answer for an excellent L&A point guard this entire season that does not make it even more vulnerable somewhere else, unless Self begins to swing Perry 3/4 and Wiggins 2/3, which so far he has been effectively unwilling to do. Wiggins and Perry are the go get a basket guys. They are also the bread and butter scorers. I don't believe KU can win a ring in March/April with Perry sidelined for extended minutes, when he is unable to handle really good L&As at the 4, because of his height and slightness and finesse game. The Designer has to be in the game for KU to have enough scoring to play for all the marbles.

But this headline and thread asked if this team can win another title.

The answer is: yes.

And it seems a high probability to me that it will, not a slim one.

Talent and depth playing well together wins conference titles.

There is no reason to think this team will not make a non linear improvement in playing together when they get their legs back and with the butt kicking by SDSU.

But rings are won by 7-8 guys, three of which have nearly every game MUA, with the other 5 or 6 having the fewest holes to mask, that then get the most favorable match ups in the three 2-game tournaments that comprise the Madness.

KU seems to have too many holes to win a title, even if it gets hot in March, unless Embiid transforms into Hakeem in a single season, or Wiggins actually becomes the next Lebron.

But it can win a long grind to a conference title with its depth, with Cobbins out of OSU's line up, with Self having correctly anticipated the additional length of this season (KU should not burn out late January and early February), and with Self giving KU the edge over Drew of Baylor in coaching over the course of a round robbin. OSU can get a split with KU just because Smart is an order of magnitude better than any guard we throw at him, but not a sweep without Cobbins.

The Mayor and Iowa State can get a split, but our depth and talent should will out over a round robin.

Kruger and OU may be the biggest threat and so stealing a win in Norman tonight, when we are not yet probably sufficiently developed enough to do so would be huge! We all need to hope and pray for a great shooting game, some aggressive rebounding heretofore not seen, and a big dollop of lady luck. If we get out of Norman with a W, then we can afford the splits I mentioned above and lock a share of this tenth title up. And if we happen to sweep either OSU, or Baylor, well, then we should get it outright.

Rebounding, guard play, and finding a scheme for keeping Perry in games against L&A 4s, are what this team needs to focus on the most. As soon as they are confident in these areas, then they can really focus on the Disruption Stat and so steal enough advantage in possessions to win on their bad nights.

Rock Chalk!!!

@justanotherfan, copy and paste on communication of expectation.

Most Great coaches start out great communicators speaking word, dress and body language very close to the youthful players they coach. Over time, however knowledge of and close age proximity to youth culture diminishes. At a certain point, you are not really a cool, savvy jock coaching. You are a middle aged man with a lot of knowledge to share. Wooden had to become the wizard/mentor because he could no longer persuasively be the Indiana Rubber Man coaching. Self has clearly long relied on cool and jockness and contemporary language to attract and lead. But he hit middle age and it quit seeming so natural. Every man has to adapt to this phase change, no mAtter how much FU money they have. A small few can hang onto their charisma, but most cannot. I wrote last season about his middle age issues not related to personal life, which I know nothing of, but because of the impact it will have on his coaching. He still struggling to find his middle age style and will for a few seasons.

Swing Perry 3/4 when he cannot score, board and guard against L&As. Swing Andrew 2/3 when Selden sputters. Play two long bigs against the L&As. Be an inside scoring team against non L&As and a perimeter scoring team against L&As. Keep your two best players--Ellis and Wiggins--and scorers on the floor with Embiid. Quit sitting Perry, or playing him at 4, when he can't get her done at 4. Quit playing Mason and Naa together except when the other team has pony guards. Only use jam Tray against short bigs, because he is short. Only use black and Lucas against long bigs. Go back to matching up with opponents. Stop counter matchups. Counter matchups only work when the opponent is not very good. Believe.

@HighEliteMajor, not feeling the neg at all. I figured 8 Ls min 10 max, so they are on schedule for 8-10.

Naa and Frank are ok against ponies, but that SDSU GUARD ATE THEM ALIVE and he is not nearly the best long guard they will face.

And Perry at 4 is the other weak link boarding and scoring on L&As. Swing Perry to 3 against the L&As and our troubles are over. Keep sitting him when the going gets tough and we won't have enough scoters on the floor.

Rock Chalk! Ian am poz

@Crimsonorblue22 , yes. Dooley was that rarity: a quant that could communicate with jocks like Self and players. Dooley could find unexpected ways to win statistically and Translate into jock speak. Not sure snacks can.

@TheDrunkenJhawk , Yes. OSU lost Cobbins. Baylor will be tough, but Self is the edge over a long round robin.

@drgnslayr, and that is why Self preaches "NEXT" even if you get hit by a diesel locomotive.

@MoonwalkMafia, for those begging Self to throw Greene, or White, to the dogs of D1 competition, Selden is probably the real reason why Self doesn't. Only certain players are mentally ready for getting punked and laughed at on TV before full houses for several games, or a season. Great physical ability alone cannot avoid it. Selden is in danger of being wrecked for the season. And we learned that he was urt for awhile, too. But the bullies and punkers don't care about your injuries, or fragile young mind. If you step out on the wood, they are gonna hurt ya, if it can help them hang a W. and the NBA is an order of magnitude tougher. Selden and Wiggins both got an experience against SDSU that should make think seriously about life in the L. It won't, but it should.

@KansasComet, despite my own takes on some of the problems with the pieces of this team, your mouth punch take best addresses the loss in that game.Every young team has to lose one of these before realizing just how tough D1 is. Copy and paste.

@drgnslayr, both coaches you mention faced a crisis at the mid points of their career that determined the trajectory of the rest of their careers.

Wooden coached one way until that first championship season. Wooden did not recruit. Wooden did not press. Wooden coached the same way he had for ten seasons at UCLA and at Indiana State. In short he coached just like his coach, Ward "Piggie" Lambert at Purdue. Brawny rebounders that got the ball to fast breaking guards. Man to man defense. High post offense to keep the lanes clear for cutters getting to the basket. And late in that first phase he reputedly began to be strongly influenced by Hank Iba's defense first philosophy. Defense starts offense and searching for the highest percentage shot are the coins of the realm, whether running, or in half court. Everything starts with defense. Also, you are trying to create mismatches. Wooden himself added the following: he did statistical analyses of which shots where on the floor offered the highest percentage. It was during this time that he introduced the requirement of players to shoot bank shots on any wing jump shot. Wooden also studied cutting systematically. He studied whether arced cutting was more or less harder to guard than straight line, angular cuts. Angular cuts were harder to guard. Thus he did not run the weave that Iba advocated. By the end of that first phase he had systematically determined how to move on a court and how to shoot on one. But his defense was not creating a great edge for him and other better known coaches at USC, CAL and Oregon State were getting all the best players. Wooden kept finishing second. His career was stalled and he knew the writing was on the wall. He either had to get better, or UCLA would look for another coach. He knew his opportunity was coming because the old coach at USC and Newell at CAL were nearing the end of their careers. But he was considered by then a fine coach that was too slow to adapt and refused to recruit.

Wooden responded to the crisis by hiring an assistant, Jerry Norman, who reputedly did two things: 1) he began recruiting; and 2) he persuaded Wooden to adopt the 2-2-1 zone press full time. Wooden tested the press on the freshman team one season, then adopted it and never quit using it. Wooden kept everything else: Iba defense, high post, straight line/angular cutting, bank shooting, and one more thing. His teams were the best conditioned teams in college basketball. His practices were run on 3x5 note cards. Every practice was a set length that never varied, usually shorter than other coaches practices. But his practices were planned and executed down to the minute. There was zero down time and everything was aimed at organization and maximum effort and maximum focus and maximum conditioning from beginning to end of the practice. There were no practices that ran on. No practices had heart to heart talks. Everything was quick, not fast, and changing constantly from clearly defined task to the next. Film was not a part of practice. There were no two a days if I recall correctly. But every player that played for him said without reservation that he could cram more into an hour and a half than any other coach could fit into three hours. Everything had to be done the UCLA way. Basketball was not a game of personal expression. It was a game of organization and conditioning. They scouted but did not tailor game plans to opponents. They decided who needed defensive help and who might hurt them. But the offense was set and run the same regardless of whom they played. They focused one hundred percent on doing what they did. They came out and executed. Wooden was absolutely savage on the refs. He was criticizing them on almost every play. The players were to stay completely neutral, so that the refs had only to focus on Wooden and on the other team crying and emoting. Wooden said, "Once we figured out how to win championships, we got pretty good at it" is what I recall him telling me with a wink.

But there is the other truth. They started recruiting and were very effective in LA from the moment they started. Talent was at a high level even if not all of the slots could be filled the first year or two of trying. They won at least two rings without booster Sam Gilbert anywhere in sight. Wooden's critics always leave that part out. But then the Gilbert years came (Wooden claiming not to know anything was awry and allegations never leading to Wooden, or in the end penalties by the NCAA) and UCLAs first two rings set in motion a tidal wave of talent showing up at UCLA. Wooden probably never had as many great players on any of his great teams as Calipari had on his great UK team, nor as many great players as on Ohio State's great Jerry Lucas teams, i..e,, guys that went on to great and long NBA careers, but Wooden got both great big men of the era. In short, to going from almost being a footnote in basketball history, Wooden had to fundamentally change his philosophy about half court defense to full court zone pressing and he had go from not recruiting to recruiting.

Now consider Bob Knight. A youthful coaching giant (some sad enfant terrible) by 1976, when his greatest team went undefeated and won the ring. At that moment, the defiant Knight who had been blowing the whistle on all of the rising tide of player payments and corruption in the game found himself at the top of the heap using the very players that he was increasingly unable to sign, because though he would not cheat, so much of the rest of college basketball did succumb to cheating and the rising Shoeco/summergame/media complex that Knight could not longer sign a large share of the greatest talent available. Knight also achieved his early awesome success with unapologetically abusive discipline and player treatment at a time when societal roles of authority were changing in life and the media. Knights early career saws the twilight of the old autocratic coach/teacher years and the beginnings of the coach/CEO era of college basketball, inc. pioneered by among others Dean Smith. The athletic department and its sports were a business first, and a college activity and sport second. Knight saw coaches go in the first half of his career from low paid employees with lesser stature than tenured professors, to high paid persons that tenured professors resented for their wealth and fame. Knight saw his militarization of basketball not inconsistent with its discipline and structure at West Point. It was amateurism seeking excellence at great sacrifice. Knight saw media change in that first half of his career from print journalists loyal locally and mixed up in big cities with promoting all sorts of professionalism and unholy gambling activities into a local media stooping to ambush interviews and questioning to stay competitive with the rising power of national and regional sports television broadcasting then surging forward. Knight went from a environment where he could be a rough and tumble guy with a bunch of good old boy journalists that could be trusted to edit out your vulgarities to a guy who saw his coarseness as a means to sensationalize and sell papers and build audiences by reporting on it and even encouraging it. After Knight's great '76 team, he has reputedly said that he had already climbed the highest mountain and so he created the next challenge for himself. He decided to see if he could win honestly in an era when everyone else was cheating. He turned from ferocious competitor with better players into driven man simultaneously trying to clean up the game by talking openly of who cheated and by trying to drive mostly inferior young athletes recruited reputedly without cheating into in effect a Hoosier Green Beret outfit. Every player was drilled relentlessly into being a universal basketball soldier skilled at every facet of the game that could be taught and learned with, or without, great athleticism. One great talent was sought to be surrounded by a bunch of role players that could and would sacrifice themselves, pay any price, follow any order, to push the under talented team to a ring. Knight appeared to become an obsessed maniac at times in his zeal to prove honesty could prevail over cheating and corruption. Like a kind of John Brown of basketball, Knight felt justified in doing almost anything to prove that a team honestly recruited could still win. Like John Brown, he crossed the lines of decorum (calling reporters expletives and bullying almost anyone he perceived to be standing in his way) and even of legal behavior (reputedly in Puerto Rico) and university codes of conduct (reputedly getting physical with players). Knights second half of his career, maybe even last 2/3s of his career was a one man war waged apparently by almost any means he could think of against the hypocrisy and corruption of his time--a tide he argued was at flood stage and in danger of ruining the facets of the game and of the university world that he respected and believed in. His excesses converged with changing social standards of acceptable public and private conduct, and of the rising institutionalization of college sports, inc., as Indiana University professor Murray Sperber's College Sports, Inc. made so clear way back in 1990. And in the end, though Knight won three more rings, and over 900 games, he was forced out of Indiana University and marginalized by the system to a kind of basketball Siberia--Texas Tech, where Knight's once heroic efforts to expose corruption, prove winning could occur the honest way, and so hopefully shame the ADs and Presidents of universities into cleaning up the game instead resulted in him becoming a kind of Knight Errant Coach trying to prove amidst Texas windmills that he could even win in Texas. Finally, after setting up his son for a head coaching job, Knight appeared to screw Texas Tech and took a powder mid season so his son would for sure get the job.

My point here is that in a corrupt world, the nearest thing society has to a role model and mentor for young men--a college basketball coach--has in these two cases shown there is no totally honorable and effective way, no clear model for, operating the second half of a head basketball coach's career. Things change so fast that the conditions that enabled his virtues and strengths to lead him to be able to flourish, or even to great success by the midpoint of his career, have ceased to exist. A great coach must adapt to great change,often not to his liking, often offensive to his standards, in the second half of his career. Often he must sharply change his method of coaching, or his method of acquiring players, or his method of playing the game.

It is said that time waits for no man.

For a college basketball coach, especially one good enough to have two halves of a long career, instead of just a short bitter first half with no second act, time not only does not wait for him, it flees by him like a fast break into a dark tunnel full of looming unforeseen consequences sewn in the first half of his career, and by choices made when he realizes everything has changed since he first formalized his approach to the first half of his career.

Self has always had role models up to this point for how to win, because coaches all admit that the purpose of the game is either to win, or to be the best you can be, and preferably both, if you want to have a first and second half to your career.

But he has no role model now for how to do the second half right, except maybe Coach Consonants, and as has been increasingly apparent the compromises Consonants has made in the second half of his career, though they have yielded him the most wins of all time, Self does not appear to want to go the way of Dean Smith and become an unofficial CEO type. Self, despite his diverse and remarkable political gifts, appears to want to coach basketball and be with his son. He appears to thrive off the competition. At the same time, he has always forecasted a rather shorter career than many older coaches in the game.

I really can't say what Self will choose, because it will be a creative act on his part, but I can say that he is going to have to do this second half in a rapidly changing global shoe and petrochemical and central banking world where globalization 2.0 has nonlinearly balkanized into a regionalization 2.0 that is fraught with tremendous political economic uncertainties and rising complexities that are going to filter down through all aspects of public and private organizations and their people. It is going to fascinating to watch, if he just doesn't resign and move to Tahiti, as I suspect part of him is ready to do. And I can add that the longer he stays in the game, the more change is going to throw him curve balls.

Rock Chalk, Coach Self and...

Go, Bill, go!

@HighEliteMajor I would have gone long based on what I know of performances so far. So would you. But Self has apparently turned some kind of corner on the kind of team this will be. Wiggins has morphed into Xavier 2.0 for whatever reason, probably because he will be gone and has only an average shooting touch. Embiid seems in recent stories to be willing to commit to two seasons, so he is being built around. Oubre is coming to fit with Embiid, not expecting to be bigger than Lebron and Wilt. Self is investing heavily in Naa and Frank, apparently emulating Slick Ricks model last season for this one at guard, and because he senses he may lose one or both of Greene/Whit, when he signs Lyle/Rashad. Something must be going on behind the scenes with Greene. Self sees what we see. This is unfolding much like Peters and Adams. Appearances don't square with realities. Self usually likes to match up and play it anyway they want. Greene and White were logical choices and Self only contradicts logic, when other "stuff" is going on. The other "stuff" must have made him decide to opt to win the game with the depth of the bigs and a defense retooled for more disruption; i.e., modeling Slick Rick's small guards as you commented to me per-game. Regarding me over complicating, I doubt I. Could over complicate this extraordinary situation, even if I tried. Self appears in his usual protean style to be shifting gears and playing around being dictated to by difficult circumstances. It does not matter whether Wiggins is not as good as billed, or going the Xavier 2.0 route, or injured, or too young developmentally, he does not play as the next Lebron for KU and Self is recognizing it in the scheme. Wiggins is playing pretty well for a freshman and so he is playing and green lighted. But he has not taken over a game for a month now. Ben Mac played sharply better, so did Rush in their first seasons. I am not even a little unhappy with Wiggins. He is a clear strength. He just is not a great player yet, not nearly as dominant as Anthony Davis, even. And I don't care if he will be unless he decides to stay. He is what he is now. We are better with him, just as we were better with Xavier.

Self is masking weak guards; that is the hardest task of all in coaching.this is the second season he has had to do it. It caught up with him last year. It probably will again this year, whether he plays GREENE/WHITE, or does not. Guards and bigs and a great player win rings. He is playing all his bigs to develop them. He is playing THARPE/MASON and Selden to try to develop them. Someone has to sit to let it happen. Self apparently trusts Selden more than Greene and values developing MASON/THARPE more than Greene; that is the simplest version. The more complicated version is the complex backdrop I have alluded to.

I do think, as I said above that Self will still get around to developing Green/White in January against less tough teams than SDSU, which I think was a heckuva team that would demolish any opponent KU has played so far, if it plays that way all the time.

We saw yesterday just how much farther Tharpe and Mason have to develop to be effective at PG. Tharpe especially got exposed. Self has to play them big minutes to get them ready even as backup PGs, which is what both of them really are in terms of development this year. They just have to play, because there is no developed point guard around.

The biggest question facing Self, however is not any of the above, but what to do about Ellis. He is our first option to score, and he cannot score against L&As inside. The verdict is in. He also is a weak rebounder against same. This is the deep flaw in the team Self is building. If Self shifts inside scoring to Embiid, then KU will be out rebounded by L&As. If Self keeps scoring through Perry, KU will score well until KU meets tournament teams that are L&As, and then it will lose. Since Self seems to be scheming toward next season as much as this one, he is probably very close to swinging Perry 3/4. He could already be doing it had Black not been so slow to develop on both ends. Perry is not destined to be a dominant 4 without 25 more pounds, no matter how much lean muscle he develops at 225. At 3, he is an every game MUA. At 4, he will never hold MUA MORE THAN 3/4s of the time. I am no knocking Perry, just saying playing out of position doesn't get the team to its highest ceiling.

But Tarick and JAM TRAY haven't shown they can score, or rebound even as well against the L&As.

Self is in a real bind with Perry--a quality person and a quality player stuck out of position and out of his depth.

Swinging Perry exploits the current depth on the bench against L&As, which Self goes to any way now, plus gets Perry ready to swing with Oubre who will not be as good as the hype, as usual.

Perry can shoot the trey as well as any one we have now squeezing them, plus he is vastly better than White/Greene right now in every other phase of the game.

What I am repeating from a prior post with more definite is we cannot win at a high level with Perry at the 4, unless Embiid becomes Jabbar/Olajuwan this season and that seems unfeasible even in best case.

Swinging Perry 3/4 leads to swinging Wiggins 3/2 and this means real time MUAs against the L&A teams at tourney time. Of course Perry can guard any 6-5 to 6-7 guy at 3. And he could whip their butts on offense. And Wiggins is a crushing monster against any 2 on both ends, compared to subbing Naa, or GREENE/WHITE for Selden. It hangs 38 minutes a game on Perry and Wiggins, which they are both capable of. There is no loss to doing it against L&As. Zero. Perry already cannot score and board on the L&As.

And Greene appears no answer at 3 in any case.

The good news is the saplings now know unequivocally the difference between young men and boys and unless they are in complete denial they know they are yet boys. While chastening, it is a necessary realization prior to further getting better.

They got there butts kicked and laughed at that first half. Wiggins had never been laughed off a court before. HE WILL GET BETTER BECAUSE OF IT, BECAUSE HE HAS THE TALENT TO DO SO. IT'S NOT SO CLEAR ABOUT PLAYERS ON THE TALENT BUBBLE, WHICH IS WHY SELF KEEPS YOUNG FOOLS OUTSIDE OF SUCH SITUATIONS.

But it's up to Self and Self may not want to invest so much in Wiggins for only a year.

First, this team is overmatched at PG every game against good teams and sometimes against average teams.

Second, the verdict is in on Perry. He can't score or rebound against L&A bigs. He is a 3 playing the 4 and it happens every time.

Third, Wiggins lacks a trey gun and becomes just another leaper against L&As.

Fourth, Selden is good but can't take over a game.

Fifth the front court depth cannot score.

Sixth, back court depth is non existent so far.

Seventh, Embiid is not yet savvy at interplay between himself and other bigs.

Eighth, the tough schedule does not seem to have caused the problems, but rather has exposed them.

Ninth, it's better to know what needs fixing.

Tenth, the team is now very close to getting it.

Eleventh, even when they get it, it is going to be very tough when the other team has a top notch PG, or a true power forward, and is L&A.

@HighEliteMajor Boards. Yes. Trey shooting needed. Yes. Out coached? At first I thought yes, but now I think no.

SDSU was a very good team: long and athletic; tough as nails, mature, seasoned, with an accomplished PG, a style of play our guys had never seen, and an experienced coach out to prove something. Not the most hyped talent on the floor but the most pieces fitted together the best playing hardest and toughest. SDSU was KU the last three seasons.

KU? This was the kind of team many have dreamed of: hyped freshmen playing lot of minutes to get them ready for a title in March. Alas, this green team has some big holes. It has short, low ranked talent at PG, an ingredient for no ring, or conference title. It has a power forward with no power. It has perhaps the most wildly overrated star since Alpha Centauri. It has a slow footed two guard physically ideal for a kind of physical play that is no longer allowed. It has a wildly athletic, inexperienced center that tries hard and makes athletic plays but often has no feel for how the game is actually played. It has not one natural born rebounder, just a lot of "long cats." it has a transfer center playing like a transfer center. It has short project big playing like a short project big. It has not one experienced, well rounded glue guy with a 40% trey. It has three wing shooters without much experience that are not getting much PT in close games, because they don't do much positive and do some harm. In short it lacks everything that previous tough Self teams have had except Self, and top quant Joe Dooley, and Self has tried to be a kinder, gentler one week of Boot Camp kind of Self.

Men beat boys yesterday--scared boys with men laughing at them, punking them, the first half. Experienced hard noses that were longer, tougher, and more athletic at the 1, 2, and 3 than the boys. Embiid didn't have enough savvy and Perry didn't have enough size and strength and meanness to exploit the doubles and overplays by SDSU. KU's perimeter players didn't have the toughness and moxie, to go inside and help on the glass.

Self threw them in the deep water yesterday and said go find a way to win with a sound strategy, but no tactical wrinkles--without any coaching tricks. He does this every pre season sooner or later with experienced teams and it works. It failed with the saplings. Maybe a misjudgment by Self, but he apparently thought the team needed a reality check on want to and resourcefulness.

Some key things to register about the game:

They fought hard the second half;

They never figured out how to box out and go get the reeb against L&As experienced at holding and hooking;

They predictably shot poorly (after 56% trifectation the previous game);

Their leading scorer, Perry, was hopelessly overmatched;

Their superstar three froze having never played against guys that could shut him down;

They lost their composure frequently; and yet

They still almost won it.

By winning the Disruption Stat!

For the first time this season I believe their disruption stat went >1 and was better than the opponent's.

The reason Self did not give major minutes to either Greene, nor AW3, as matchups and bad trey shooting otherwise dictated, was that Self decided the teams best chance to find a way to win was to wear the opponent down, get their bigs fouled up, with substitution in the front court, Embiid shot blocks, miscellaneous strips, and low TOs. Greene or White risked higher TOs without higher strips. They sat in order to try to win the disruption stat. It worked. This and playing from behind also dictated little or no zone.

What did not work was: all the focus on guarding and disruption, made the saplings NOT focus on boarding. Self seemed almost to have conceded rebounding to SDSU. Had he wanted to win the rebounding war, he would have zoned more. He won't concede it again. This week will be endless rebounding drills.

In short, I believe Self is plenty smart enough to know the team could have won with either better trey shooting (playing Greene/White/Frankamp more), or winning the disruption stat. But he did not think the team could do both. So: he opted for trying to win the disruption stat. He must have thought his players woul not get so intimidated they would shoot in the 20s% inside though.

KU guarded much better yesterday. SDSU shot only 37%. KU disrupted and protected much better. It went >1 on the disruption stat and kept SDSU <1.

But it is true that guarding and disrupting can take one's focus off boarding and it in fact did.

Bad as it looked (and it looked really bad the first half and not pretty the second half) the team is still moving in the right direction in learning to play through the bigs and winning the disruption stat. Recovering rebounding comes next. Greene/white/Frankamp and trey shooting will get sorted during First half of conference play.

Remember: Self said early the longer season was what he was trying to gear around and build for. Everything he is doing suggests he is sticking to the plan. Other teams are achieving mid season form now, while Self is gearing for a month from now. There are lumps to take now. But Self is building to peak when most teams are starting to get stale in late January. It's a gutsy move, but then Self is playing for rings now and not winning percentage.

I was as chapped as you, at first, but with a night's sleep this how it looks to me now.

Rock Chalk!

Can a big man coach get enough big men to a mid major in today's recruiting regime to turn Tulsa around?

Most mid majors live off of a perimeter game. When one occasionally gets lucky and lands a good big or two, the program may turn a corner a la Gonzaga. But shut off the big man spigot and the mid major quickly recedes.

Where is Danny going to get his bigs, when even most majors are playing a pair of 4s?

I am beginning to doubt Danny is going to be able to land the bigs he is so good at developing.

And if that proves the case, is he flexible enough to adapt to a perimeter game?

I am pulling for Danny in a big way. Gonzaga, Wichita State and VCU have been able to get some bigs? Is anyone familiar with how they are getting them? Can Danny do the same at Tulsa?

Danny's team is getting the crap knocked out of it this year. He has scheduled some good teams. But man is Tulsa struggling!

Danny needs some KU BUCKETS Good Karma right now to carry him through his crucible.

~5-10 in real inches Naa guards 6-3 Thames or a 6-7 wing when Selden switches off, or when Frank plays point? How do you say Brannen Greene, or AW3 get a lot more minutes!

~Perry gets another chance to see if he can finally be efficient and glassvac against guys his size.

~Selden is in for his first D1 taste of being shorter than his man for an entire game. It usually unnerves all but the best.

~Wigs finally gets a taste of playing with a floor full of guys that can get up and can get down the floor close to the way he can. Here we see if Wigs is ready to turn it on and keep it on.

~Game hinges on the glass, if Self has Hawks playing better defense (and that is a huge if). Control the glass and Self can turn it into a half court game for stretches, which lets Self prevent Fish from getting our saplings too sped up. Fail to control the glass on an opponent our size and with a big MUA at PG, and a whole cascade of bad things happen. Our front court depth means we should eventually get control in a fast paced game.

~SDSU is vulnerable to fatigue fouling against a team their own size, but so is KU, if Self has to wait too long to go to his bench.

~If SDSU shoots well, Self will have to mix up the defenses to stay in it.

~Self's tight rope walk is keeping the pace up the court fast enough but also running the stuff long enough to make KU's depth give KU an energy advantage down the stretch of both halves, while not letting SDSU speed KU up.

~Fish needs to speed KU up and avoid as much time defending in half court as possible. It also means getting inside quick on offense and drawing fouls to stop the action as much as possible to keep legs strong for the stretch runs of both halves.

~Both teams are too L&A for either to force either a full time half court, or a full time running game. This leads to a game of squirts of breakneck pace broken up by lots of foul shooting. SDSU WINS IF IT CAN CONTROL THE GLASS AND CAN DICTATE MORE SQUIRTS OF SPEED BALL AND TRANSITION BASKETS.

KU WINS IF IT CAN CONTROL THE GLASS, PREVENT OUT OF CONTROL RUNNING BY SDSU, AND EXPLOIT ITS ENERGY ADVANTAGE DOWN THE STRETCH OF BOTH HALVES PROVIDED BY ITS FRONT COURT BENCH.

~KU is about to learn how tough life can be without a lot of freebie lobs.

~KU is also about to learn how well Naa and Frank play up and under defense against guys a half foot taller.

~Wiggins and Ellis are the decisive MUAs to exploit.

~Embiid is likely to have some trouble getting untracked against their length, and Perry always has a tough time with length.

~Control the glass, protect, change up the defenses, hope Brannen's wild hair is trimmed, and get Wigs his touches early and often.

~If Naa and Frank have to play much together, fuggedaboutit.

KU by 5.

@JayHawkFanToo --failure to fact check is a real phenomenon. Use of failure to fact check could also, i suppose, be a fallback alibi in an intentional misrepresentation, could it not? Coupled with the apparently conscious introduction of an unattributed conspiracy theory in a big city daily makes my antennae go up. File it under Hmmm for now, I guess.

@HighEliteMajor--There are exceptional short guards like the Louisville duo and Sherron Collins. But those kinds of guards are almost as rare as great 6-4 guards. We haven't seen another Sherron since Sherron and we had not seen a Sherron before Sherron.

We are talking about Naa and Frank and these guys as you have long noted are rather far down in the rankings of PGs and second, third, fourth, fifth choice types of PGs.

I am not against carrying ponies for match ups with ponies. I am against NOT having at least one 6-2 to 6-3 guard for matching up with long PGs. It would be a little foolish not to sign a long PG, even if a combo type, for matching up with long PGs, if only for a handful of games, usually 1-2 in the Madness.

I am not quite sure what our difference is here.

You don't want to sign Lyle, or Rashad, because they might not be ideal long PGs that could be signed the following season. Your assumption seems to be that signing them would preclude us from landing a more ideal PG next year.

I am saying a long combo is always handy to have around for match up issues and carrying three ponies--Naa, Frank and Conner--without a combo ignores the match-up issues.

Self has to sign one of those two, or pick up one of his weird, unforeseen guys he seems to scrounge up for such situations. A stretch Frank if you will.

I don't see any down side to signing a combo next season.

Bottom line with Adidas feeling froggy, we are going to land an OAD PG regardless of how many tall and short guards we have around, whenever they eventually have one in their stable.

IMHO, this is no longer like the old days when a big back log of players at a position discourages an OAD. Self appears committed to letting OADs play regardless of who was there before them.

Selden and Wiggins are the new models.

Oubre is going to be the same.

Selden and Wiggins play to get ready for the Madness until they stink the floor up so badly that someone else gets a look and then only a short look unless they do superbly well.

It follows indirectly then that if they are going to play regardless of who is ahead of them, then there is no reason not to stock the cupboard full with guys like jaQuan, or Rashad, if they can help you even a little for a year. If you sign one, and he decides to transfer because you sign an OAD to take his PT, then you still have all the ponies. And if you lose one of the ponies, well, then you have the match-up covered and still have two ponies.

I wish college basketball had not moved this direction, but it did. The ShoeCos apparently decide where the OADs will play, not the players. Apparently, the coaches that sign up with the OAD program get fed the OADs when they are available, not when they want them. And not even which one might be best for their program's slots. I doubt Self could not have said no to Wiggins and ever gotten another OAD from the Adidas conveyor. Self is under contract with Adidas. KU is under contract with Adidas. When Adidas decides an OAD is a viable property, and they want him at KU, then Self has to take them and he has to play them; that appears to be the deal. If it weren't the deal, then Wiggins and Selden would almost certainly not be starting from the beginning. Neither guy has been ready to start from the beginning. They have been being started, because that is the system now.

OADs have to play immediately, unless injured. They have to keep playing unless injured. And they have to play at the end unless injured. The only allowance is that another, more experienced player, like Ellis, is still allowed to lead the team in scoring and minutes played in order to try and ensure the Ws that are necessary to get the OADs into the Madness and advance them to a level of sufficient promotion.

A fall out of this is that there is no reason not to sign Jaquan, or Rashad to fill a hole, whether or not they fill it perfectly, and whether or not they will try to jump to the L, or transfer.

Jaquan and Rashad and their advisors almost have to know that the OADs backed by the ShoeCos drive the car. If an OAD PG comes along and Adidas shunts him to Self, then he is coming and playing. Period.

If Jaquan, or Rasahad, are OADs, then they will play regardless. And Self will have to take them if they are shunted to him.

If Jaquan and/or Rashad are not OADs already hand picked by the ShoeCos as such, then they have to reason that no matter what they do in college, they are not going to be an OAD their first season. It is no longer a free market. There is a system--a conveyor belt. Everyone, coaches, players, media, NBA has to fit in around and accommodate it.

Not much need to suck up massively to an OAD as a media person. No matter whether you do, or don't, you have the access forced on you for one year and you've got to hype him for one year. If you don't, your access is likely cut off no matter how much you suck up.

For a metaphor, consider the OADs the parameter and all the other players the variables. What teams and coaches can expect to do are essentially regressions of variables around OAD parameters.

Self won't purposely over recruit in order to have to later force out a player. But he will recruit to fill any variable he needs and he will force out anyone that does not want to red shirt, if an OAD comes down the conveyor belt making it necessary subsequently.

At least that is how I read what we are watching unfold recently.

So: no, in the old days, I doubt you sign Jaquan, but you might sign Rashad based on talent, and wait for next year to see if you can get lucky for a classic PG.

But in the new days, Self probably already knows what the Adidas OAD conveyor is going to force feed him the next two years. And if there is a surprise OAD, he has to take him too.

Self is just recruiting the variables and the variables in stepwise regression are always subject to change--to being added to and subtracted from--depending on what the R-square dictates given the OAD parameters.

Its life in the OAD era, until some coach, or player, finds a way around it.

Self proved he was so flipping good he could win 84% of his games without joining the OAD program. He proved he could win a ring before the OAD conveyor was basically institutionalized. But once it was institutionalized, and once his career hit the tipping point and he began the latter phase of his career, he apparently looked at things, said its been a good ride, but I've got to get another ring or two to really leave the legacy I would like. He apparently looked hard at the UK-KU final game experience a couple years ago. He had the best five he could ever hope to put together in the OAD conveyor era. He knew he could coach circles around Cal. But Cal had the thoroughbreds in numbers he could never hope to match. Self tried the old way and that Final game was the writing on the wall. He apparently decided to go along to get along. In an earlier age, Wooden did too eventually. Dean did too. Knight refused to go along. They broke him to Texas Tech. Self probably got chills thinking about what happened to Knight. Coach K apparently went along from the beginning. Self must have thought something like, "if Adidas ever decides to get serious about the OAD thing, then I'm not letting any grass grow under my feet. I'm going along to get along. I know I'm the best coach of my generation. My numbers prove it. Its time to quit being prudish and go along with the tides of the game, or have them break on me and its over not when I say so, but when they say so."

Self has FU money now. IMHO he is probably hanging on for one reason and one reason only. I don't think he gives a tinkerer's damn about the NBA for himself. What does he need that for, except for maybe one quick check at the end. Self has to do what every other coach with a son has to do. He's got to find his kid a spot in the profession before he hangs up the whistle. he doesn't have to make him great, just make sure he gets a shot if his kid wants one. Right now, Tyler is still probably too young to know for sure what he wants, but he apparently thinks he might want to coach. Self has to stay at the table in order to swing Tyler a start up job good enough for him to leap frog some of the groveling Self had to do early on.

Does Self want to help Tyler get a college or pro job? that's the question?

its hard to know how much Self hates recruiting?

All college coaches seem to hate it on one level and not on another.

Those that hate it a lot go to the pros. If Self hates it a lot, then he won't want Tyler to have to do it. He'll want to help Tyler get a pro job. The best way to do that is for Self to get a pro job. Once Tyler has one year of pro experience, then I reckon Self is headed to Tahiti.

This guy has worked HARD!!!!!

He doesn't need the NBA money and ring to make him happy.

He seems a gregarious fun loving guy with or without the game.

Once Tyler is on someone else's staff, then Self and Cin ride off into the sunset. They played the game and won. Think next. Retirement.

Given this broad umbrella description of Self, is he going to hesitate a second about signing jaquan, or Rashad, because they are not the perfect PG needed, but still at least give him a long guard for a few match ups, when necessary?

IMHO, Yup.

Adidas will take care of the OAD PG when they get one and put him on the conveyor marked Self.

Or so my opining and speculations about appearances or the game today lead me to suspect.

(Note: as usual, all of the above is opining and speculation. I have no insider knowledge about the ShoeCos, or about Coach Self, or any player or recruits mentioned. Its all just how it appears from the outside looking in.)

I am confused about laundering Merv.

I don't see how an AAU coach, or anyone else, gains more by Merv going to UNM than to TTech, or Marquette.

Someone school me on laundering marginal players.

Is this bogus nonsense, or is there something substantial here?

Re: Ellis--his scoring efficiency has been nothing short of superb. But can we get some stats to indicate if it holds up against L&A 4s?

@JayHawkFanToo --you exposed the SD Union story. Congratulations. But then you stopped short of explaining why the SD Union writer would apparently misrepresent the facts, and why he would propose the apparent misrepresentation under the rhetorical convention of in his words a conspiracy theory. This seems loosely similar to a limited hang out technique in the psy-ops/propaganda field. And all of this leaves unspoken why KU's Keating felt compelled to arrange the game and why Self went along? Would it be fair to say that your catching them with their technique showing implies there is more to the story? Or are you comfortable with mistaken reporting, as an explanation and Keating arranging the game as unrelated coincidence?

@HighEliteMajor--Without putting too fine a point on it, Naa and Frank are 5-11 in KU inches; that means they are at most 5-10 and more likely 5-9.

It is perfectly alright to have these guys for the skills they bring. Naa distributes. Frank has an afterburner.

But, realistically, how are these two ever going to guard long guards?

They are going to have to play up and under on guys even just 6-2.

What are these guys going to do against 6-3 Marcus Smart and 6-4 Gary Harris come tournament time. Even Aaron Craft is a legitimate 6-2.

Neither Naa, nor Frank, can stay on the floor playing up and under against the likes of Smart, Harris, and Craft. They will be fouled up in 2 minutes. So: they will have to lay way off and that is why we have no pressure on the perimeter and no disruption either.

We need a 6-2 to 6-3 point guard to play in those match-ups, not necessarily to muscle, but to have long enough legs to pressure on defense and then make a long enough drop step to keep up with these guys.

I have not seen Lyle, or Rashad, play, so I cannot comment on whether or not they can be the guy. But it is clear we have to get a combo type, or kiss pressure defense against 6-2+ PGs goodbye for next season, and maybe another, while developing one.

Selden seemed to me like a guy who could fill such a role for a time. But Selden has not evidenced PG skills, nor PG foot speed so far. Plus, if Selden has to rotate onto Smart, then that leave Naa and Frank playing up and under on 6-4 to 6-6 2 guards. Or else your ball handling drops way off with guys like Greene and White.

Frankamp at 6-0 in KU inches is not a solution either. He is 5-11 almost for sure.

Travis Ford tried playing in the Big 12 with a pair of pony guards and no credible 6-2 to 6-3 backup PG a couple years ago. What he learned was you could upset a team occasionally, but mostly you got your butt kicked. He apparently disliked guards he could make eye contact with so much that he went out and got Marcus Smart.

Self has to find at least a 6-2 defensive specialist that can handle the ball to afford Naa and Frank.

It is not a knock on Naa and Frank.

It is match-up issue that has to be addressed.

Many (including yours truly) have written about Steve Fisher's role in the 1989 ring at Michigan, and in the cash payment scandal at the time of the Fab Five.

Few, on the other hand, have asked: from whence did Fish ball spring?

"Fish" refers to the former Michigan, and now 15-year San Diego State University Aztec Head Coach, Steve Fisher.

"Fish ball" refers to the distinct and up-tempo style of basketball Fisher's SDSU and and Michigan teams have played.

I will be brief...for once.

Fish assisted Michigan Head Coach Bill Frieder for nearly 8 years.

Frieder assisted Michigan Head Coach Johnny Orr for a goodly number of years.

Johnny's teams liked to run.

Frieder's teams liked to run.

Fish's teams like to run.

But there is something a bit more distinct about Fish Ball, something that, in my humble opinion and fading memory, distinguishes Fish Ball from Orr's and Frieder's running teams.

Oh, Wikipedia on the black mirror, what other coaching bloodline feeds into Fish? What makes his team's look a little more protestant in their running game than Orr's and Frieder's? That makes Fish himself seem a bit of a faint echo in demeanor to the Indiana Rubber Man, i.e., John Wooden, without the halo that the Rubber Man may not have deserved himself.

Les Wothke, who Fish assisted at Western Michigan, and who hired Fish for his first high school job in Fish's home state of Illinois comes up with a bit of searching. Wothke was apparently unremarkable, though he did eventually coach Army for 8 years. But I could find little on Wothke that told me much about Fish.

A check on Fish's college coach turned up an interesting and forgotten coach, one who probably ought to be remembered, too.

James Collie, actually James Collie, Ph.d., WWII veteran and later coach of Illinois State University for some 21 years, was Fish's college coach. Collie was largely responsible for putting Illinois State on the basketball map. He coached a running game. Illinois State became known as the Running Redbirds under Collie. Collie won a lot of games and went deep a couple of times in the old NCAA College Division tournament. Bespectacled Collie was known as Gentleman Jim and was said to be much loved by his players. He was reputedly not one to ever lose his temper at his players, but merely to become a little irritated. Before Illinois State he had coached a two tiny NAIA colleges--McKendree in Illinois and Friends College in Kansas. I found no record that James Collie ever played college basketball. But he attended Murray State, a college long known for running on the wood. But then I found what I was looking for. Collie had gotten a masters degree and a Ph.d. at Indiana University in 1948 and 1952; that put Gentleman Jim in Bloomington in the height of the Branch McCracken era. Branch McCracken! But,of course, Gentleman Jim Collie must have soaked up what McCracken's running game that descended from Everett Dean, who McCracken played for. Those were simpler times. There was less to learn from a coach about schemes. I can't prove it. I can't swear to it. But I have a hunch that Fish Ball is a mix of the rough and tumble lineage of Johnny Orr and Bill Frieder stuff. But also a lineage that goes back to Gentleman Jim Collie of Illinois State, and very faintly back to McCracken and Dean, which Collie must have watched for half a dozen icy winters in Bloomington, while laboring away on degrees, recalling his war years and wishing he were back with the game he had loved growing up. He had been to war. He must have known what all vets knew. Yes, you've got to look out for yourself, and find something that pays, because no one else will. But life is precious and precarious. War teaches a lasting lesson. It can all be over in a second. Everything. You. Your buddy. The replacement you never knew. Gone. You better go for what ever you want to go for, because in a moment's notice, the world can turn upside down and you are suddenly staring down from here to eternity.

It was lucky that Gentleman Jim went for it and lived it with all the gusto his proper demeanor allowed. After 21 seasons of coaching he resigned. He had contracted MS. He hung on at the Illinois State University for many years in administrative capacities. When he died, donations made in his behalf funded a scholarship in his name that is still given to players to this day. KU assistant Tim Jankovich got another shot at head coaching at Illinois State, the program that Gentleman Jim Collie put on the map. Good done echoes down through the years in unexpected ways and makes unexpected connections.

Watch Fish Ball when KU plays SDSU. Fish is no saint. But he also carries within him the germ of the game of Gentleman jim Collie. Fish has a kind of game that is different and deeply rooted in the deep legacy of the game. Its worth a look.

Self needs a PG over 5-10 for next year. PG is an emergency need. If Self has to go two seasons without pressure defense and a realistic matchup for a 6-2 opposing PG, he will infarct, or retire.

@Kip_McSmithers--yes, gambling is the 10,000 pound T-Rex in the living room of sports. The numbers stagger and are growing exponentially with globalization 2.0 and the internet.

@REHawk--thanks for the Randle scoop. Quite interesting.

@Blown--good to hear from you again. Hope your time away was re-creating for your soul. The Greek chorus continues.

I meant, Mr. Gittes from Chinatown.

@Kip_McSmithers "the future Mr. Glitters, the future."

The NFL is chump change compared to a world hooked on gambling on professional hoops and buying petro apparel.

@drgnslayr--interesting angle. Migrate to a 4-team BCS-equivalent tournament. Marginalize the Madness incrementally the way bowls were marginalized. Makes some sense. Some of what happens depends on if, how and when Nike and Adidas are merged/converged. This depends on whether a global holding company decides to move to merge them. This is all about controlling global apparel markets through the back door of petrobasketball shoes. The oil bidness apparently wants to take all apparel onto the oil standard, because they know energy is migrating off oil and onto LNG and hydrogen stored as Formic acid for hydrogen fuel cell electricity generation. The new Tesla 4-door proves electricity beats internal combustion hands down, just as Henry Ford and Thomas Edison said back in 1910 or so before the lead and oil monopolies reputedly colluded to kill Ford and Edison's game changing electric car (note: Henry reputedly built his early cars to run on magnetos to avoid the lead monopoly's lead acid batteries. Edison invented a different battery and the Ford-Edison electric car was to run on switchable battery packs at Ford-Edison service stations. But I digress. ) Global-petro-clothing is reputedly a critical step to underwriting the migration off oil based energy. Gotta soak up surplus oil to keep it from continuing to be used as a competitive energy supply for LNG and Formic acid stored hydrogen. It will take migrating the world off natural fibers and onto petro fibers (rayon, polyester, blends and new stuff) to even begin to soak up the supply. It takes global promotion to achieve that; that's where sports come in, and basketball and tennis are the only two sports with shoes that can double as street shoes. And basketball is the more telegenic sport, so basketball and it's globalization are the path and battle ground that must be shaped and won in order to enable migration from oil to LNG and Formica acid stored hydrogen for energy.

Marketing at this level has to occur through global trading blocks. The largest global trading block is the Commonwealth of Great Britain--the first or second largest private economic entity in the world. Wiggins is a Canadian. Canada is in the Commonwealth. Wiggins has a natural marketing tie-in to the commonwealth. Shell, BP and Exxon are reputedly basically contolled by the Crown of Great Brittain that in effect controls the Commonwealth. Wiggins' unprecedented market value may stem from his unprecedented capacity for being marketed to the commonwealth at a time when the Crown of Great Brittain seems to be riding to a new peak of financial power, as USA struggles with insolvency. In short, Wiggins is probably worth all that someone like Lebron is, plus the additional sizeable increment of Wiggins marketing tie to the Commonwealth that Lebron lacks, plus the growing numbers of Chinese and Indian shoe buyers expected during his playing career, plus some increment for in part indirectly enabling the coming transition from oil to LNG and hydrogen. All opining and speculation without insider information, of course.

@bskeet--first, let me say thanks for teeing up these daily headlines for us. It makes this site quite info rich and one-stop shopping oriented, which I really like. It also gets the linked sights some clicks from us, which maintains our constructive engagement with them.

@jnewell--Disruption, or the lack thereof, is what really separates this year's team defense from prior years IMHO. Your steal stat confirms my bias. :-)

My assessment is that Self has been working on so many things that he has not until now even seriously tried to get the guys playing to win the disruption stat.

Our freshman had to learn how to play help defense; that took a lot of time. Right now, they are kind of staying in front of their men, if their opponent is not too quick, and they are beginning to think about helping a pass away. But NOONE appears to be playing help two passes away yet.

While Self is a great global thinker about what a team's realistic strategic and tactical potential is out in the future, operationally speaking, Self is a pretty methodical guy. He has always tended to put things in a piece, or two, a game before conference starts. He does not seem to have abandoned this approach entirely, but he seems to have evolved to install a piece, or two, each game,while continuing to work on the stuff previously installed. This is why this team looks so frequently caught up in thinking, rather than playing on instinct. The team has very little wired instinctively yet. But it is making progress.

I believe the early season changes in foul calling have really made it difficult for the players to get confident playing pressure defense, generally, and about the time they adjusted to the tight calls, the refs have begun to loosen up some. Your stats highlight Selden and Tharpe as leading the way in disruption deficiency.

While many of your stats this season have surprised me a bit, Selden and Tharpe not stripping surprises me not at all. Their cautious play has stood out like two sore thumbs.

Selden, first: Selden has an NBA body for bodying a defender, and he has a long first step and upper body strength that can take him to the rim offensively, but he is not extraordinarily quick of hand or foot. I am not knocking Wayne here, just stating the obvious. He will develop quickness over the years, but it will take a lot of work.

Tharpe, second: I said this his freshman season. He has short legs. He has to lay off guys to avoid blow-bys. To his credit, he is a bit quicker this season and he has figured out how much he has to lay off to avoid blow-bus, but he still has the Paul Newman/Burt Reynolds Syndrome of long trunk and short legs; that is never going to change. It doesn't hurt him much on offense, because he is quick and dictating where he is going. But defense requires lightening quick reaction, if one is ever going to play up and under longer opponents and hope to occasionally crowd them enough to disrupt them other times when laying back to make a pass look open when it isn't. Tharpe so far has not shown this ability.

Now, in Selden's and Tharpe's defense, they are probably capable of some more disruption than they are showing so far, but Self hasn't got anyone on the roster behind them that can play both under control and aggressively enough to play help defense without breakdowns and protect the ball and feed the post on the other end. As a result, Selden and Tharpe can't really gamble much and take fouls, because Self's got none on the bench that can come in without causing a lot of problems on one end of the floor or the other. Tharpe for one example, HAS to stay in the game to play both PG and 2, so that there is always someone that can feed the bigs.

Selden has obviously been trying to learn to disrupt at D1 speeds, but without much success. He gets fouled up quickly when he tries. And while he is still trying to learn to disrupt, Self has had to force-feed him the art of feeding the post, which has him thinking so much he has started making TOs AND fouling to the point of not being able to disrupt.

And it real crimps Selden's room to grow that there is no one like Brady, or Tyrel, or later Travis or EJ, to come in off the bench and not hurt us, so that Selden can afford to foul and not have to keep playing.

Brannen Greene's slowness at getting under control (really not slow, but just normally it takes time to get under control) is killing the defensive development of Selden AND the team. Brannen needs some mirror time. Brannen may also need some heart to heart with Tyrel Reed. Really, this team does not need his trey gun yet. It will late in the season, but not now. What it needs now is a Brannen Greene that can play under control the way Tyrell and Brady did their sophomore/junior seasons, and the way Travis and EJ did their sophmore/junior seasons. But this is no knock on Brannen either. Brannen is a freshman. Very few freshman can play under control no matter how many minutes of PT you give them. Heck, EJ could not play under control until the very end of his sophomore season. Travis needed a rouge smoking jacket plus two seasons to really lose his wild hair and find out how to play under control.

But KU needs Brannen to do something players of great character and talent and headiness can sometimes do. KU needs Brannen to fugggedabout his natural gift--the trey gun--and start playing under enough control albeit control with more intensity than he has ever had to play with before--to buy Selden the minutes he needs to play a bit more recklessly, when Selden is in the game.

The same can be said of Frank Mason. Mason has tons of talent. He can do all kinds of things this team does not yet need. What this team needs crucially is for Frank Mason to play under control; i.e., not as fast as Frank can play, but just fast enough to keep this team off the dime, plus feed the post without turnovers, and guard--all under control. Were he to be able to do this, then Tharpe could gamble a little more on defense. And in combination with Greene playing under control, Self wouldn't have to resort to Tharpe on a wing so much and Tharpe could really play balls to the walls when he is in and not have to worry about keeping out of foul trouble so much.

M2M defense in basketball is the ultimate expression of team play. Everything, every person, every ability of each person, fits together and so is interconnected. Self likes 7-8 man rotations not because he has an irrational streak that makes him refuse to play more guys. Self knows that you have to play your best 7-8 men late in the season, because that is what your opponents will gravitate toward doing. You can't beat 7-8 better players with 9-10 lesser players once the season reaches the point where the 7-8 guys can play the 200 alloted minutes of a game at a high level. Self's gravitation to 7-8 man rotations is less a choice by him and more an indication of an equilibrium strategy given the five positions, the 200 available minutes, and the NCAA tournament being 3 2-game tournaments with the two games separated by a day of rest. Cut out the day of rest and the equilibrium strategy would probably move to 9-10 man tendency, or at the very least 8-9.

Self has to find a fourth perimeter guy that can get her done both at point and on the wing. Frank Mason and Tharpe are height challenged, but they are the best that Self can come up with--a committee. But what Self really needs is a fifth big with size, so that Tharpe does not have to play wing.

It has to be Brannen, or AW3. AW3 got injured and didn't play through; that's a mark against him. Brannen seemed to be the guy. He was highly rated. He had length. He seemed fast enough. He has some attitude. He has some athleticism. But he's got a wild hair longer longer than Brady and Tyrel had, and almost as long as Travis and EJ had. A rotation player with a wild hair is not a rotation player.

Many board rats have long argued that all you have to do is put a freshman in and play him tell he gets it. This is true of a player without a wild hair. You could put Tyshawn in a limited role and he could do what you asked from his freshman season. You could put Xavier in from his freshman season and he could do it. Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers could do it. But guys with wild hairs need more than minutes to get it. Their minds--literally their brains--need to grow some more. The average human brain is not fully developed in terms of neural net growth until that person is 23. There are a few that mature earlier and a few that mature later. But 23 is the average.

So: board rats that think all Brannnen Greene needs is more PT are assuming Brannen does NOT have a wild hair; i.e., he does not need any further neural net growth to become a guy that with some PT will develop this season into a rotation guy.

Here is where I defer to Bill Self's knowledge of human brain development and his judgement about what I call "The Wild Hair Factor."

Self has been exceptional at distinguishing between the guys with wild hairs and the guys that just need more PT.

Board rats that argue that EJ just needed more PT as a sophomore obviously don't buy "the wild hair factor," or the inadequately developed neural net development explanation of EJ's development.

But the brain scanning evidence is in. Some guys brains aren't ready to perform at a high level until they are in their 20s, no matter how much teaching and experience you give them. There really are late bloomers, as surely as there are early bloomers.

Self knows that judging who is a late bloomer (someone a lot of PT will not help very much) and who is an early bloomer (someone that a lot of PT will help a lot) is an easy call at the extremes (e.g., EJ as a freshman), but a tough call for a lot of guys in between. Self also know that even though some guys seem clear cut wild hairs (e.g., Anrio Adams), they have so much talent, and a team may have so much need, that Self keeps giving the guy short looks to see if by chance the guy's brain development has occurred ahead of probable expectations.

There is absolutely no question in mine, or any other knowledgeable basketball fan's mind, that Brannen Greene is going to become a heck of a basketball player, maybe even a great one. But his behavior off court and his play in games so far strongly suggests that he may tend toward a wild hair factor. As Self did with Anrio Adams, Self keeps giving Brannen looks and keeps looking for signs that his brain development is far enough along to warrant gambling the team's future on giving him the PT he would need to get enough better to end Self's reliance on Tharpe at the wing. So far Self is not being convinced. But he keeps throwing him the PT bones and hoping Brannen shows the mental maturity needed. This is not about Brannen being a head case, or not trying, or anything else negative. On the contrary, Brannen seems to be giving it everything he has got. He seems to be trying to do everything Self asks. It is about that it is not yet clear he can do what is needed. A look in the mirror and a talk with Tyrel are not punishments, nor criticisms. They are simply small actions that might burn in just enough more nets to make him mature enough. They probably won't work. Just as PT probably won't work. But this team is so critically desperate for what Brannen, or AW3, has to offer, that Self has keep giving them a few minutes, while moving more and more toward Tharpe at wing for reserve.

Would that kids could grow up faster than they do. But the worst thing to do for Brannen Greene, or Andrew White, would be to tell them they are ready for the rigors of the rotation, when in fact they are not. Nothing breaks a player's confidence worse than having a coach become someone whose judgement he cannot trust. A player hate a coach for chewing on him. He can sulk about a coach not believing in him enough to play. But the death blow to a player-coach relationship comes when a coach looks him in the eye and says, "Kid you are ready to play and I am betting the farm on you in the rotation," only to say, "You didn't measure up and I was wrong about you. You are not ready." Players have to be able to trust their coaches judgement of their readiness. Without that trust, they cannot become the best they can be.

And if players cannot become the best that they can be, then teams cannot become the best they can be.

It is no fun to have to tell a player, especially a highly gifted one, that he is not ready in a way that he cannot yet possibly comprehend. Telling a player such things requires a player place an enormous amount of trust in that coach.

Self would much rather be telling Brannen Greene (or AW3) he is ready and playing him 15-20 mpg, so Tharpe never had to catch another pass from Frank Mason.

But the team is more important than Brannen Greene, or AW3, and the player-coach relationship is more important than Brarnnen Greene, or AW3, and their desires to play now.

For this team to play M2M defense and take the disruption battle to its opponents, it desperately needs several players to mature to the point of being rotation players. Hard work and talent and a desire to be team players are irreplaceable elements that can be developed. But adequate neural net development is still a largely uncontrollable variable associated with aging.

Love these boys no matter what. They are trying their butts off at incredibly tender ages. They are entering conference play, where the intensity and violence takes off nonlinearly. The freshmen have no idea what they are getting into. The sophomores are not really sure yet that they can handle what they got a taste of last year.

To too many the OAD rule is just an annoying thing that keeps us from getting to know our players as well as we wish we could, and from watching them for as long as we wish we could.

But for the players, it is a harsh experience that occurs in real time at a too young age, because it makes the most money for the networks, the NBA and the ShoeCos.

The boys matter most.

Understand the following is all hypothetical.

Suppose you were a member of a basketball shoe duopoly trying to manage risk and market share for the long term in a duopoly relationship. What kind of regime of dominant teams would you want to encourage?

To hypothesize an answer, one first has to make an assumption about whether duopoly members might want to stay a duopoly, or want to kill off one of the members, and become a monopoly, or add more and become an oligopoly.

Historically, in my recollection, most monopolies eventually default into oligopolies of two to six members. There are lots of reasons for this that we don't need to go into now in order to make a reasonable assumption.

Historically, I can recall few if any oligopolies that have defaulted into monopoly, but that does not mean there are none. It just indicates my anecdotal sense of tendency. Again, there are lots of reasons for this that we don't need to go into now in order to make a reasonable assumption.

Lets be conservative here and stick with historical tendency, or at least my anecdotal recollection of it. Let's assume that path dependence in the future favors the currently hypothesized duopoly choosing either to stay a duopoly, or choosing to default into an oligopoly of up to six members. Let's further assume, for the sake of simplicity, that duopoly is the regime that persists for the foreseeable future simply out of path dependent inertia. This last is probably an unreliable assumption in the long term, but almost any assumption is unreliable in the long term, so let's go with it for the sake of simplicity in taking our first baby steps in thinking about this stuff.

Under this assumption, what regime of dominant teams in a four region NCAA tournament might most likely support the perpetuation of a duopoly?

Hypothesis: I reckon each duopolist would seek to establish four heavily talent laden teams with each one having a high probability of being a one-, or a two-seed team in each region by the end of the season.

Duopolist A loading four teams with top talent, and Duopolist B loading 4 teams with top talent, would go along way statistically to ensuring that a Final Four and a Final Two included Duopoly teams, and that a Duopoly team won the ring. Dominating the Final Four and Final Two and winning most of the rings would go along way to perpetuating the duopoly members' market positions and would overtime, make it a high probability that one, or the other, duopolist almost always landed the "next Michael Jordan."

Not saying this is how it necessarily is.

Saying this is a hypothesis that might be interesting to fit with data.

@wrwlumpy--Copy and paste, lump. Fish's guys will likely get up and down the floor at a much faster pace than our guys are used to. If Self plays it anyway they want, our guys will be in danger of getting sped up. We are a potentially great transition team that has not yet played a game of real D1 speed ball against a long and athletic; this will be a great experience for our guys--though they might get their butts kicked. We could win handily, if Self were to turn it into a half court game played exclusively through the bigs. But he probably won't, because that would defeat the purpose of scheduling these guys in the first place. It is growing more and more apparent that Self decided the best way to get a bunch of cocky, talented plebes ready for March was to expose them--not just to good teams--but to good teams that played every kind of basketball our guys might run into down the stretch. I doubt that Self expected that the guys would be so incredibly slow on the defensive uptake, but they do keep taking steps. Inside offense is solid and getting strong. Wing offense is weak, except for Wiggins, but because he can, when asked, turn it on, wing offense is at least a kind of strength. And rebounding is on the upswing.

One of the most under appreciated aspects of the Toledo defensive nightmare was that KU completely overwhelmed the pee wee sized Toledo team on the glass, despite Toledo shooting a high percentage that reduced the number of rebound opportunities for KU. This progress is not to be completely discounted on account of Toledo's height challenged roster. Short teams have not only given KU defenses fits on chasing shorter guys, but KU defenders giving chase have tended to get out of position to glassvac; this did not happen against Toledo. Maybe they chased so little on defense that they were always near the hoop to catch a carom. Whatever, KU wiped them out on rebounding and that is progress for this team.

I suspect Self will let the guys play reproductive glands to the walls for a little while, so our saplings get some of the cockiness knocked out of them about how great they are in transition; then he'll slow it down and play half court to get back in the game; then he'll let them run again until they start getting their butts kicked again, then go half court again to win.

Fish is really going to play for the win, so Self will have to be very careful about how much he lets our green wood run. As I said above, they think they know how to play up tempo, but they don't--not yet. And play up tempo is about all SDSU does.

Regarding Zona, every year since the Stumpy era began, except for the first season, when Stumpy inherited some guys that did not need coaching up, Stumpy has failed to coach up his green wood. Like Cal, his guys play to talent level, not to coached-up level. It follows that Zona probably beat SDSU with talent alone. What I am stammering out here is: Zona is loaded--a Nike Full Metal Jacket team--like Cal's UK teams--and that maybe doesn't tell us much about SDSU. SDSU could be terrific, or so-so. But they will likely get out on the break and run every chance they can.

Cobbins out, means KU wins another title and gets a number one seed.

McGrary out means a coach with Self's number is out of contention.

Needs for rest of season:

Need MSU point guard to go out and ensure exit of the other coach with Self's number.

Steal Cal's hair lube to ensure coach of only other team with sufficient talent to beat Self and KU does the disappear-o.

Voila!

Size the boys for rings.

This is the kind of resoned, gutty forecasting I love to get on board with, but...

It is December 31st and this team:

a) cannot guard;

b) cannot protect; and

c) lacks a point guard that can be a threat against a draft choice point guard.