Nothing close to a good look yet. This one is going to be a test for Ellis.
DCHawker
4842 posts
@Bwag Believe, I'm definitely NOT taking anything away from this game with regard to rotation. Will believe in change when/if it happens against a quality opponent in a close game....
And Selden at the point.
So, Perry is getting minutes at the 3 as Self promised - Carlton and Hunter in at same time.
Nice and all to open it up a bit offensively, but what is up with our defense. 12 points in the second half in 4 minutes. We give up a LOT of 2nd half points to too many teams.
@jaycon11 Playing against a D-1 team...
@Crimsonorblue22 Agreed. But, he could/should be our best scoring option by the end of the year if he gets regular minutes. Can score low and from 18 ft.
@wissoxfan83 Yes - 1 point game. But, Simmons is the real deal.
@Bwag And size. They are very small - biggest guy is about 6-7 200.
Early fouls for Mason means that Svi should be in for most of the rest of the 1st half.
@Bwag Alas, I think it's only because it's Chaminade and he expects an easy win and everyone will get minutes. We"ll see the next two games...
@Bwag But, Hunter gets the quick hook. Self didn't like defense and foul on on the play, so he get's yanked. Remarkably how short a leash some guys are on compared to others.
@HighEliteMajor Brilliant.
@KUSTEVE I would respectfully suggest it IS a matter of perspective, not lack thereof. And, the perspective is the recent past and heightened expectations. I am well old enough to remember the Owens years. A few great players, a couple of really good teams and FFs in 71 and 74, but otherwise very up and down. First with Larry and then continuing with Roy and through HCBS, we've had an unprecedented run of consistency at a high level. While Roy didn't get the NC, he got us to several FFs and had some of the teams that were the most enjoyable to watch and easy to root for. It many ways, HCBS elevated us even further. 6 30 win seasons in 7 years, a NC, a runner-up and a couple of E8s. He has had a system and recruited players that fit that system with great results.
We're all spoiled rotten as a result. So, the angst expressed in the many posts and threads following MSU - and really on the heels of last year - seems to be from the perspective of an elevated perch - where we've been the past couple of decades and where we hope/expect to continue to be.
And, from that perspective, the last couple of years haven't measured up. The most losses in a two year period during the Self era, along with early exits and some really bad losses. What everyone is struggling with, at least I am, is whether this an anomaly, or has it become a trend? Is it Self, changes in assistants, changes in the college game/recruiting environment (and failure to adapt to same), bad luck, or some combination of the above?
Self was a great hire and has demonstrated over time to be one of the best in the game. His record is a remarkable one and we should all be proud of what he has accomplished at KU. My concern is his "system" doesn't work well in the OAD era. So, he either needs to change his approach to recruiting or adapt his offensive and defensive schemes to better fit the personnel. Playing amateur psychologist, my own view is that a lot of this is an overreaction to the loss to UK in the NC. He had a classic Self team - veteran and gritty, could score efficiently in the post, and shut down other teams in crunch time. But, he/we lost to a more talented team. I think he decided that he didn't want to be "out-talented" by the other guy(s), and he started to aggressively and almost exclusively go after the OAD types. The problem is that his system requires time to learn and execute well - on both sides of the court. And, we know that he has a quick hook, so the younger guys rarely get much PT - Wiggins was really the exception. Now he/we're in a box - it's not clear that he/his system and OADs are a good match. And, if you're going hard after the OADs and don't hit on them, you're left scrambling to get 3 stars and cast-offs from other teams, e.g, Mason, Graham, Traylor, Lucas, Black, Mickelson, Coleby, some of whom have been and will be really solid contributors, but they aren't elite.
Hope springs eternal - perhaps Diallo will be cleared and will see some adjustments in Maui that suggest all will be right in the world again - at least in Jayhawk land - and all this sturm and drang will be a distant memory. RCJH.
@jaybate-1.0 Yes, but in the "what have you done for me recently category," HCBS is a more pedestrian .548 away from Allen the past 2 years. 12-9 in 14-15 and 11-9 in 13-14. 0-1 this year. In the past years, we were a great road team, mainly because defense travels and we were an elite defensive team that could get stops and overcome offensive sluggishness. Hasn't really been the case the past couple of years - defensive efficiency/tempo metrics are well below prior years.
@ParisHawk I don't mean to be harsh - just trying to be realistic/objective about recruiting the past 4 years or so.
No, I'm not judging based on later injury - I'm giving full props to Embiid as recruit. Injury may have resulted in a different outcome against Stanford, but we still had double digit losses.
Perhaps "luck" isn't quite the right word, but Mason and Graham were decommits from other schools. Ended up with Wigs and Embiid very late in the process - leaving the impression, perhaps unfairly, that we weren't necessarily first choice.
To be clear, I really like both Frank and Devonte - they've played above their rankings and have been and will be solid contributors. BUT - they were fallbacks after we lost out on other guards, and, let's face it, neither is likely to be an NBA talent.
As for highly rated bigs, you are correct that four of them were ranked in the top 20 - the problem is that if just one doesn't really pan out for whatever reason, you see the results pretty quickly. Other schools seem to have gotten a leg up on us in getting even higher rated and multiple bigs.
Again, not trying to be overly harsh, but comparing to our own past history and what others have been able to do - esp. this year so far - I just think we've fallen short the past few years. The more important question is why?
You are right, that if Diallo was playing and if we happen to land Bolden, Allen and Jackson, then there wouldn't be as much angst....
@SoftballDad2011 I appreciate the "glass half full" sentiment, but, gosh - I'm not sure what metrics you are using to define "fine" in characterizing our last 4 recruiting classes (or "great signings').
First, we lucked into a couple of them. Second, more than a couple of come with academic or other baggage. Third, Black and Colesby are really just rentals - and modest contributors on less teams.
What about personal on the court production? 3 mostly lived up to rankings/hype - Wiggins, Embiid and BMac; the rest not so much, although jury still out on the newer guys Team production - meh; early exits and double digit loss seasons. "Logging" playing time in the NBA? Wow. Wiggins will be an all-star and Embiid might have been (but might never play). Black and Alexander are getting mostly mop-up minutes, Oubre not even that. Who on our current roster is an NBA player? Maybe Svi and Bragg.
Other than Wiggins and a healthy Embiid, are any of the above better than TRob, X, the Morii, Simien, Wright, Arthur, Rush, Chalmers, Collins, Collison and Hinrich??? Looking at it as objectively, recruiting the past 4 and now going on 5 years, has been underwhelming at best, compared to many prior KU classes, and certainly to the competition - esp. this year. I'm beating a dead horse, but is there anybody out there that wants to play for KU enough to commit early? We've always claimed we are "Big Man U." Other than Embiid, which of the above qualifies as a quality big - of which UK seems to have 2-3 at a time? It's not like we have a logjam of talent in the post....
@BeddieKU23 42 of the top 50 ranked players on 247 have already committed. 14 other schools have at least three 4 or 5 star commits. Maybe we end up with Bolden or Allen, or even Jackson. But, what if not? Why can we not get top 50 or even top 100 players to commit early - who want to play for KU? Waiting to see who declares clearly isn't an issue. We will have plenty of playing time. What gives? How many top 75 guys have signed with us before spring in the past 4 years?
@KUinLA Good cite (nowithstanding Jaybate diatribe) as well as one posted by @Statmachine . I'm taking the liberty of reposting here I posted after the game in another thread, making many of the same points - alas, even using the tired "insanity" cliche...
"So many threads on last night’s game - good observations and analysis throughout. My takeaway. It wasn’t an embarrassing loss - MSU is a very good team and very well coached. In the abstract, losing a tight game to the Spartans on a neutral court isn’t anything to be ashamed of.
What is disconcerting is that we’ve seen this movie before - the second half especially was eerily similar to each of our losses down the stretch last year. Blowing leads, shortening the bench in the second half (notwithstanding that using the bench contributed to getting leads in the first place), abandoning any semblance of running an offense (resorting to Bad Ball), and failing to get ANY defensive stops.
Admittedly, one game is not much of a sample set, but it sure looks like that notwithstanding more experience and a supposedly deeper bench, 2016 will be a replay of 2015 (and '13 and '14) in too many respects:
Limited capability to execute the high-low; no low post scoring threat other than Perry (and although he got his points, he still struggled to score against the Spartan bigs).
No scheming for good three point looks.
Mason (and Graham) driving into the paint without looking to dish.
Selden driving in a straight line and flailing his arms when he gets anywhere near the hoop.
Missing bunnies and inability to finish at the rim.
Inability to protect the rim.
Inability to get ANY stops in crunch time.
Too many minutes going to Jamari and Landon.
Too few minutes going to younger, but clearly more talented players (in stark contrast to the Dukes, UKs, and MSUs of the world) who need the PT to be able to develop and overcome early freshmen mistakes.
As naseum, ad infinitum…
The bottom line is that we were outscored by 17 points over the last 9:30 of the game. We gave up 29 points during that stretch - works out to better than 120 ppg! Again, lack of offensive execution, and, more importantly, defensive breakdown very much like 4 or 5 of our losses late last year.
Do we have talent? Yes. Do we have depth? Yes. But we also have real demonstrable limitations, which means that we have to play to our strengths, rather than playing into the opponents hands.
As a result of recruiting failures running several years now, we cannot run the high-low effectively - it’s Fools Gold to try to do so. It was the hallmark of Self teams during his first decade, but we haven’t had anyone able to score consistently and efficiently down low against good competition since 2012.
Unfortunately, we are also not an especially good defensive team. Our perimeter players are perhaps just bit above average. None can consistently stop penetration and Mason and Graham are undersized. I continue to be of the view, based on 3 years of evidence, that Selden is actually a minus defender against better, quicker players; but definitely not a stopper. That puts more pressure on the interior defenders, but the sad fact is that we have virtually no interior defensive presence. Certainly no rim protection (other than Mickelson). Opposing guards and wings clearly don’t fear attacking the paint against us.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Because we do have more talent and athleticism than most teams, we will win 20+ games. But we won’t consistently win against better competition unless we (HCBS) can change stripes, adapt and play to our strengths. That means on the offensive end opening up the court and taking advantage of our speed, ability to shoot threes (with BG and Svi), which in turn should open up things for Perry down low. It means applying more pressure on the defensive end, shortening the clock and not allowing other teams to get into their sets as quickly. And, both mean taking advantage of our depth to wear down other teams and change personnel on the fly to take advantage of mismatches."
All of this needs to be in context - HCBS is a Hall of Fame coach, we have a great APR (something truly to be proud of) and yes, we are spoiled by success. But you can't rest on laurels or fail to adapt to circumstances. Looking at it objectively, the past 3 years have seen under performance in recruiting (at least in terms of getting highly ranked players to commit early to KU), esp. quality bigs, and under performance (relative to prior years) in both offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, and, not surprisingly, under performance in the NCAAs and against the best competition. We are already behind almost everyone else in 2016 recruiting and unless there is a change in approach to strategy, tactics and use of personnel, it seems like deja vu all over again.....
@betterfireE You make a great point that I had neglected - player development, or lack thereof. I'm struggling to think of a player over the past few years who has markedly improved his skill set during his career. Perhaps Releford? Selden is almost exactly the same player he was coming in - ball handling skills appear to have not improved one iota - and his production has flat lined. Perry's outside shooting has improved, and he does appear to be a bit quicker this year, but his overall low post game hasn't changed much. He has never really learned or won't ball fake, use an up and under, use the rim for protection - all reasons he struggles and will continue to struggle against L&A bigs. Based on their rankings and reps coming in, as well as early production, one might reasonably have expected them to dominate by this time - be consistent 20 and 15 ppg guys. Perry is still very good and Wayne is solid (most of the time), but as one poster put it in another thread, would either be starting for UK right now? Are they even the best in the B12? Perry will likely make first team all B12; Wayne?
@Texas-Hawk-10 You are correct that Lucas is out best rebounder on a per minutes basis - and was just behind Cliff last year. But his rebounding advantage over Mickelson is slight. The big difference between the two is rim protection. Hunter has 1 more block than Landon last year in about 1/4 the minutes! Small sample set, but in 2 games this year, we have 5 total blocks as a team (pathetic itself), and Hunter has 3 of them (Svi the other 2). If Mickelson were playing regularly, I expect he would also have an impact in altering shots, much as Withey did. We simply have NO interior defensive presence now. Opposing guards, wings and bigs attack the paint and rim with impunity.
So many threads on last night's game - good observations and analysis throughout. My takeaway. It wasn't an embarrassing loss - MSU is a very good team and very well coached. In the abstract, losing a tight game to the Spartans on a neutral court isn't anything to be ashamed of.
What is disconcerting is that we've seen this movie before - the second half especially was eerily similar to each of our losses down the stretch last year. Blowing leads, shortening the bench in the second half (notwithstanding that using the bench contributed to getting leads in the first place), abandoning any semblance of running an offense (resorting to Bad Ball), and failing to get ANY defensive stops.
Admittedly, one game is not much of a sample set, but it sure looks like that notwithstanding more experience and a supposedly deeper bench, 2016 will be a replay of 2015 (and '13 and '14) in too many respects:
Limited capability to execute the high-low; no low post scoring threat other than Perry (and although he got his points, he still struggled to score against the Spartan bigs).
No scheming for good three point looks.
Mason (and Graham) driving into the paint without looking to dish.
Selden driving in a straight line and flailing his arms when he gets anywhere near the hoop.
Missing bunnies and inability to finish at the rim.
Inability to protect the rim.
Inability to get ANY stops in crunch time.
Too many minutes going to Jamari and Landon.
Too few minutes going to younger, but clearly more talented players (in stark contrast to the Dukes, UKs, and MSUs of the world) who need the PT to be able to develop and overcome early freshmen mistakes.
As naseum, ad infinitum....
The bottom line is that we were outscored by 17 points over the last 9:30 of the game. We gave up 29 points during that stretch - works out to better than 120 ppg! Again, lack of offensive execution, and, more importantly, defensive breakdown very much like 4 or 5 of our losses late last year.
Do we have talent? Yes. Do we have depth? Yes. But we also have real demonstrable limitations, which means that we have to play to our strengths, rather than playing into the opponents hands.
As a result of recruiting failures running several years now, we cannot run the high-low effectively - it's Fools Gold to try to do so. It was the hallmark of Self teams during his first decade, but we haven't had anyone able to score consistently and efficiently down low against good competition since 2012.
Unfortunately, we are also not an especially good defensive team. Our perimeter players are perhaps just bit above average. None can consistently stop penetration and Mason and Graham are undersized. I continue to be of the view, based on 3 years of evidence, that Selden is actually a minus defender against better, quicker players; but definitely not a stopper. That puts more pressure on the interior defenders, but the sad fact is that we have virtually no interior defensive presence. Certainly no rim protection (other than Mickelson). Opposing guards and wings clearly don't fear attacking the paint against us.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Because we do have more talent and athleticism than most teams, we will win 20+ games. But we won't consistently win against better competition unless we (HCBS) can change stripes, adapt and play to our strengths. That means on the offensive end opening up the court and taking advantage of our speed, ability to shoot threes (with BG and Svi), which in turn should open up things for Perry down low. It means applying more pressure on the defensive end, shortening the clock and not allowing other teams to get into their sets as quickly. And, both mean taking advantage of our depth to wear down other teams and change personnel on the fly to take advantage of mismatches.
We'll see. RCJH.
Couldn't finish at the rim in the second half, missed FTs at key juncture, unfathomable coaching decisions + but biggest problem was complete breakdown on defense the last 10+ minutes. We got no stops. If they happened to miss a shot, they got the rebound. No interior presence at all. Traylor does nothing on the defensive end inside.
BAD execution. Should have taken it to the hoop.
@wissoxfan83 This one is on Self. No making any adjustments. Just getting killed on penetration and second chance points in the second half. Absolutely no interior D. Why no Mickelson I can't understand.
@VailHawk He has the size to bother him.
@SoftballDad2011 Lucas has missed at least 3 bunnies.
@Bwag Agreed. NO interior defense which Mick provides.
@jayballer54 You have raised a great question. Why can't we close some of these guys before spring??? @brooksmd It's a little too glib to use UNC shenanigans as an excuse. Per Rivals, 87 of the top 100 ranked players have already committed. 13 schools have signed at least three 4 or 5 stars players already - this includes both the blue-bloods that we are ostensibly competing against, as well as a bunch of upstarts like Alabama and Miss. St. We have exactly zero.
Some have cited the excuse that there isn't playing time available in the backcourt with Mason and Graham coming back - but that is just a one year issue and all of the top 100 aren't OAD and even TAD guys. And, if it's playing time, we will have lots of that available upfront, but we still don't have any big commits. We have to trust that out of the remaining 13 unsigned players, Self and staff will pull a rabbit out of the hat by the end of the spring, as has been the case in past years. But, that is a very risky approach and it also means that you may end up with guys that have extra baggage and/or for which KU is at best a 2nd or 3rd choice and they lost out on preferred schools. If we were the first choice for any of the top 20 bigs, why haven't we gotten any of them - plenty have signed elsewhere.
87 of the top 100 have already signed. 13 schools have 3 or more top 100 players. A few have 4. Something is wrong with this picture...
@jayballer54 This is a point I've made previously, but why is it that year after year, the "pieces fall into place" so much later for us than other schools? Why can't we get early commits from top recruits?
This year, 6 other schools already have multiple commitments from Rivals top 50 ranked players - Duke (4), Michigan State (4), Kentucky (2 top 30), Miss. St. (3), and UCONN and UCLA with 2 each. KU = zero/zip/zilch/nada high ranked commits. Self usually ends up with a strong class, but not without a lot of angst and hair-pulling along the way.
What are we doing wrong or they are doing right? Again, they are all highly ranked, esp. Giles, so not all the top guys wait until spring obviously. Is every other coach guaranteeing playing time? Are we just a back-up choice for these types of players? Is it all a ShoeCo thing?
@BeddieKU23 It may be too early to say that the sky is falling, but the question is why, year after year, we can't get quality early commitments. 40% of the 2016 top 50 are committed. How many do we have? Zero, nada, zilch. UK has 3. Duke gets early commits. A lot of schools get early commits. When was the last time we got an early commit from a 4 or 5 star ranked player? Self typically ends up with a strong class, but its almost always very, very late in the process. Mentioned this previously, but it sure seems like we are the 2nd or 3rd choice for many of the top players and end up with them only after classes fill up elsewhere...
@ajvan That last sentence is tongue in cheek, correct? I despise UK as much as the next guy, but they have a much better track record with bigs than we do over the past decade. Davis and Cousins are all-stars, plus Randle, Noel and Kanter, and could even through in Patterson and Jones. Alas, our bigs in the NBA haven't sniffed an all-star game. Kief might one day and we'll see about JoJo, but I don't think there is much question that UK has produced more productive NBA bigs than we have.
@JayHawkFanToo Great info. Wasn't aware that KU had offered earlier - hadn't seen that anywhere. Interesting about the rating - 247's composite rating for him is 82 - 11th among centers.
@Statmachine You may well be correct on this one, as well. He may turn out to be a contributor and you can't teach size, but there is a reason he's ranked in the 80-90 range and not recruited by any other top schools (unless you count Pitt and MD). Hard to see him coming in and supplanting Lucas out the box - which means we would again not have a low post game and not be able to run the H/L.
Maybe Self does pull a rabbit out of the hat and gets Diallo or Maker, but I'm not counting on it. I would guess Maker goes to UK and Diallo to SJU. Ingram to Duke. Zimmerman to UNLV. Rabb to Cal. I think we have zero shot at Newman - UK gets him, at least if Booker leaves. Outside shot at Brown, but better bet is UCLA.
What's remarkable is that we have an obvious need for a quality big who can protect and finish at the rim - but these guy apparently aren't beating down the door to come here. Maybe waiting to see the Cliff issue resolved. But, if we do whiff on the OADs, Self will be scrambling to back fill with a lower ranked guy like Papagiannis, a one year rental like Thorne, and some European lug he finds this summer. Not a great state of affairs for "Big Man U."
@approxinfinity Smart doesn't necessarily lead to success - and success doesn't necessarily require smarts - fair enough. And, I can only personally attest to exactly one Duke guy who is both. Most of the others I mentioned are observational only on TV - they come across as smart and articulate. Whether they get opportunities that others might not because they are Dookies is a good question. Can't answer that.
I certainly don't put Duke, the coach or the players on a pedestal, and I get tired of the media favoritism shown them and take (inordinate) pleasure when they lose to the likes of Mercer.
But, I'm also willing to give credit where credit is due. IMO, K is the best or one of the two best college coaches ever. 5 titles and 12 FFs over a long period with actually relatively limited NBA all-star level talent is truly remarkable. Doesn't mean I like the sanctimony, the ref bating and the very disingenuous "coaching USA Basketball is such a detriment to Duke and recruiting." And, I have no doubt that his sniping in yesterday's game played a significant role in the bad calls that went against the Badgers in the second half.
@approxinfinity I intensely dislike being in the position of seeming to defend the Duke's and UK's of the world - I will take my shots - but it sure seems like a lot of former Duke players are very articulate and successful in their post college careers. Going way back, I know Alarie well and he's smart, successful and all around good person. Bilas is everywhere. Grant Hill, Laettner, Jay Williams, Shane Battier, their guys who have become coaches, and others. Like it or not, they are a bit like the Stanford of the East - the school of choice in part because of academic rep for the best athletes who do care about academics and have the long view about life after college or pro ball. No doubt there are exceptions, but it seems they have a pretty good track record of high accomplishment guys beyond BBall.
BTW - just to be clear, this isn't a "source" thing - Self issued a statement a while ago...
@HighEliteMajor My answer to your question would decidedly be NO - do not avoid OADs altogether - but also don't base your recruiting strategy on going after the highly likely (even if not certain) OADs. Given some of the unique recruiting challenges we face, it would be to build the core of your roster focusing on the best 4 and 5 star guys who are more likely than not (again not certain) to be around at least a couple of years - go after them hard and sign them early - guys who would love to play for a blue blood program. Leave a schollie and selectively go after the very top of the class - not out of need or desperation - if you don't get him, you still really like your roster and chances. If you get him, you're thinking NC.
Yes dropping in Okafor would look great. But, how many others had the same low post skills in his class - Towns and that's probably it. So, if you went all in and whiffed, it's a lost season (relatively speaking - like the last two). Even if you drop Okafor in, you better hope it gets you a deep run, because what about the following year. You have to replace with a similar talent level, because you have nothing at all in the post.
PS - have not heard anything to indicate that Diallo has anything close to Okafor's skills in the post. May be a better defender, however.
@drgnslayr While I would like nothing better than for UK to end up in the NIT next year, regardless of what happens with the twins (who may end up staying), they look to be loaded again. Arguably their two best players after Towns - Booker and Ulis - are likely to be back (although Booker shows up as a mid-1st round on most draft boards). And, they will have Poythress back, plus probably Lee and maybe Johnson. And, Calipari already has the top-ranked class (2 5 and 1 4 star) and he could very well get one or two of the uncommitteds - looks like they are waiting to see with UK guys declaring - wouldn't be surprised if Newman ends up there.
Lordy, lordy - what a surprise. Feel for the kid. While he didn't come close to living up to the hype as the #2 big in his class, that really isn't on him and now he is put in a position where it will be difficult for him to succeed. Wish him the best.
@Crimsonorblue22 Maybe - not that I'm texting a lot - but, as I a digression, I hire a lot of recent college grads and the written communications skills of those seeking positions is all too often sadly lacking - too familiar, colloquial and shorthand - might well be a product of the texting/tweeting era....
@Statmachine :) Not to his face anyway...
@RockChalkinTexas Perhaps not an English major? ;)
@JayHawkFanToo Saw a projection from one unnamed GM who said that one of the twins was late second round (around 60) and the other wasn't in the top hundred on their board.
@BeddieKU23 Agree that Duke wouldn't have advanced with Okafor - also believe they wouldn't have advanced without Jones and Winslow. That was really my point - that is took three uber talented frosh to make it happen (and a fourth, at least in the NCS game).
Fair point about the timing of Oubre and Alexander. Oubre was good get. Alexander seemed to be primarily a Snacks-Chicago AAU thing - will be interesting to see how replicatable that is.
Good point about transfers - seems that we've had more than our fair share. Trying to recall how critical any of those were, however. Rio and Downs did okay elsewhere - anyone else a critical roster component that I'm not thinking of?
Bingo re geography - and Drake et al. Again, that's kind of my point - given what you well articulated about some of our inherent recruiting disadvantages (doing our best to overcome, but they are there), is it realistic to think that we will be the first choice or can consistently get the 2-3 you would need to reload every year once you are in that pattern. UK can - demonstrated in the past and already has this year. Duke did this last year and already has this year. Can we? Guess time will tell. But, given that there are only 5-10 uber freshmen talents each year and I fully expect those 2 schools to continue to get half or more of them, doesn't leave a lot to go around to KU, AZ, UNC, UCLA, and so on.
And, you may be right about Bragg. No way to know now. There are exceptions, but there has been a fairly strong correlation between HS ranking and draft status, at least as to OADs. To be clear, that doesn't mean that a high ranking coming out of HS will lead to being a lottery pick (see Selden). But, the high OAD lottery picks have almost always been McDs or 5 star players coming in. It's also the case that a lot of kids will declare if they clearly aren't ready or, worse, don't have a snowball's chance in Gila Bend of being drafted or making it in the NBA.
@HighEliteMajor Really good stuff. You posed the key question much more effectively that I did:
"The most important issue is whether the OAD formula works at Kansas."
Exactly. This is not an issue of whether the OAD approach can yield championships or deep runs, or whether its a good thing for college basketball, and regardless of how one feels about the issue - perhaps Bo's antipathy to "rent-a-players." The question whether it can work for Self and Kansas.
@BeddieKU23 You stated that "Okafor just brought a championship to Duke. What if the next OAD we get helps KU win the championship"?
Two things which I think are key. First, Okafor alone as a OAD didn't bring a championship to Duke. They have 4 McDs freshmen, 3 of whom are project as first round picks (regardless of whether they choose to declare), one of whom will probably go 2nd and another in the top 5-7. Same thing with the last all in OAD team to win - UK in '12: it wasn't just Davis, but multiple elite OADs (and 2 TADs). Second, do you believe that if we get one of the likely OAD bigs left, that would be enough to make us a credible FF or NC threat next year?
Admittedly, we have a relatively short track record on essentially going all in on prospective OADs. Having said that, does anyone have high confidence that the most uber talented players will fit well into the Self "system" - is there anyone out there right now that you think could give a really strong back-to-the basket presence in the post?
More importantly, what is the basis to believe that Self can consistently attract multiple OADs to KU? Whether it is style, geography, honesty, or a Shoe Co thing, how many 5 stars have committed early to KU in the past 3 years? This recruiting cycle, UK had 2 5 star and 1 4 star early commits. Duke had 2 5 star early commits. Arizona had 2 5 star early commits. All are probably in the running for some of the uncommitted based on who ends up declaring from those schools. KO has already declared and Alexander is likely gone. We have a clear need for a 5. So, what is stopping one of these guys from pulling the trigger on KU???? If they want to play at Kansas, they have an offer and we have a need. I can only assume that they are waiting to see how things play out at other schools - which tells me we are at best a second choice.
Perhaps Self pulls a rabbit out of the hat and we get either Diallo or Maker and Brown. No question that combined with Bragg and returning guys that would be formidable. It may be just as likely, however, that we don't get any of the uncommitted. What then? We don't have anyone currently on the team that can finish against L&As - painfully obvious this year. Is Bragg for Oubre going to change that? We could easily be looking at 3 straight year of double digit or close thereto losses. Certainly hope I'm wrong and I like the guys we have coming back, but they don't have the right size and skills sets to execute the H/L.
It's not an issue of not trying to recruit elite players to KU. It's a practical issue of whether trying to recruit primarily or exclusively the late deciding likely OADs can work for Self and at KU. It hasn't so far and I'm highly skeptical that it is doable on a consistent basis going forward. Lock in some 4 and 5 stars guys early and then if you want to hold open a spot to take a chance on a late deciding game changer, then great.
Well, the only positive is that it wasn't Kentucky...................
The Jones kid is an assassin - can shoot and dish. We've had Minnesota guys before - did we recruit him?
@Bwag Coach K talked to the head of refs at half time and reminded him who is king of the world...
@wissoxfan83 He's going to be the next Laettner, JJ Reddick and Greg What's His Face as the Dookie who most annoys other teams' fans.
@Kip_McSmithers Well, I would be happy to be way wrong! Almost half way there.